Tag: Impeachment
Stevenson’s army, September 20
-No surprises in hearings for several Biden nominees. SecState nominee Blinken deftly sidestepped controversy.
Mister Lloyd Austin promised to surround himself with civilians. But the Biden people are worried about “deep state” Trump loyalists.– Example, Michael Ellis.– Another example, administration refusal to cooperate with transition teams.
In the Senate, the leaders have agreed to the 50/50 power sharing agreement from 2001 — except Leader McConnell demands promise not to end filibuster. McConnell did, however, accuse Trump of lies about the election and provoking the riot. And the FBI says some rioters plotted violence in advance and coordinated in real-time during attacks. More from BuzzFeed.
While troop levels are down Stars and Stripes notes US still has 18,000 contractors in Afghanistan. Marc Ambinder warns of new challenges for the Secret Service.
Researchers note: at noon Wednesday, the Trump whitehouse.gov materials will move to an archived site, like the one for the Obama administration. [No Tweets, just official materials]
Navalny people release report about Putin’s Palace on the Black Sea.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 9
I was dubious of the legality of an impeachment trial after Trump leaves office, but it turns out there is a precedent — an 1876 trial of the just-resigned Secretary of War.
A GOP congressman argued for it — against former Pres. Obama.
NBC’s Pete Williams summarizes the different schools of thought.
If it happens, Leader McConnell says the trial would begin an hour after Biden’s inauguration.
Meanwhile, FBI says no evidence of antifa at the Capitol attack.
Politico analyzes Capitol Police failures.
DNI IG says officials politicized intelligence about foreign election interference.
Biden announces NSC staff.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, July 16
– Citing “former officials with direct knowledge,” Yahoo News has a detailed exclusive story revealing the Trump Administration’s 2018 presidential finding giving the CIA much greater freedom to launch offensive cyber operations against key adversary countries [including Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea] and against critical infrastructure and financial institutions.It says that there are now “lessened … evidentiary requirements” for choosing targets. There is no mention of reporting these activities to Congress, and even the NSC is said to have little oversight role. Nor does there appear to be any provision like the Obama requirement for specific presidential approval of any action that was expected to have “significant consequences.” In my opinion, this is way short of adequate.
The Trump directive apparently repeals and replaces the Obama PDD 20. [Beware before opening this link. Some people say that you could jeopardize a valid security clearance by opening a document like this — Top Secret/Noforn — released by Snowden and not formally declassified] On the other hand, its details have been widely reported over several years.
Readers here know that I have long promoted the “Title 60” idea of applying the Hughes-Ryan model to offensive cyber ops and lethal drone strikes: require presidential approval and congressional notification. Obama went half way in PDD 20. Trump and his NSC won’t even go that far.
In other news, the US is planning even more sanctions on Chinese officials as part of the escalating cold war.
– The sparkplug for the pivot to Asia in the Obama administration, Kurt Campbell, has a new assessment of China’s strategy.
-US may sanction more companies, including Shell Oil, over Nordstream2.
– NBC says WH tried to block Alexander Vindman’s promotion after his impeachment testimony by sending the Pentagon a report that he created a hostile work environment.
– Brookings has an interesting database of states’ ability to handle voting by mail.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 27
The big Washington news today is the NYT report that John Bolton’s forthcoming memoir confirms that President Trump specifically linked Ukraine aid to investigations of the Bidens and Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Analyzing a leak is like figuring out a murder mystery. First ask cui bono — who benefits? The answer: Bolton himself, since his book was due to be published March 17; also the House Managers of the impeachment trial, though they presumably did not have access to the manuscript; and the administration officials who believe that the president should be removed from office [people like Anonymous, who has always been vaguely cited as a “senior official”]. The Times story identifies who has copies of the manuscript:
drafts of a manuscript he has circulated in recent weeks to close associates. He also sent a draft to the White House for a standard review process for some current and former administration officials who write books.
Of course the publisher also has copies. While it could have been someone in the WH, my guess is it’s more likely to be a Bolton friend who supports impeachment. And he didn’t mind that it got reported.
Curiously, the Haberman-Schmidt story has no actual quotes from the manuscript, suggesting that they relied on descriptions or agreed not to use quotes. Another curiosity is that only a second NYT story, by impeachment reporter Noah Weiland, quantifies the sourcing, saying
Multiple people described Mr. Bolton’s account. This suggests that the original recipient of the leak got others to admit that they had seen it and confirmed the account. But what’s important is that many people knew and were willing to talk.
Despite the hype, in fact Bolton merely confirms — though at first hand — what his subordinates have already testified.
This morning, Peter Baker has an analysis.
In other news, SecState Pompeo is being properly chastised for mistreating an NPR reporter — and for poor management of State.
NYT has background on the development of the administration’s Arab-Israeli “peace plan,” which will be discussed with leading Israeli politicians this week.
Fred Kaplan reports on Congress’ truncated effort to understand presidential controls over nuclear weapons.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Honi soit qui mal y pense
President Trump tweeted this morning:
Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump · 2hShifty Adam Schiff is a CORRUPT POLITICIAN, and probably a very sick man. He has not paid the price, yet, for what he has done to our Country!
This tweet conveys several messages:
- As the lead House Manager in the impeachment trial, Adam Schiff is doing a great job and making the accused President very nervous.
- Trump is signaling to his followers that Schiff is a legitimate target not only for criticism but also for violence.
- The President himself is a very sick man who has done a lot of damage to the United States–he consistently accuses opponents of doing what he is doing.
Trump has reason to be nervous. A Fox News poll today confirmed a previous CNN result that puts the percentage of Americans favoring his removal from office at 50% or higher. The tide is beginning to turn.
The question is how fast and far it will go. The Senate Republicans are trying to race through the trial without calling witnesses, knowing that any testimony or even documentary evidence would weigh against the President. Senate Majority Leader McConnell wants to complete the process well before the February 4 State of the Union address. The Democrats would prefer to hold the cloud over the President until well after that, though they too have an interest in finishing the trial so that some of their number can campaign in the primaries.
The two-thirds majority required to convict Trump still seems far out of reach. But he would be severely weakened if enough Republicans were to join the Democratic minority to get 50% to vote for removal from office. So far, there is no sign that even one Republican will break ranks, but I wouldn’t necessarily expect them to signal in advance their willingness to buck the President. Once one moves in that direction, a few others may well join.
This week’s effort to distract attention from the impeachment trial will be announcement of the President’s “peace plan” for Israel and the Palestinians. It has no chance of success at all. The Palestinians long ago decided not to talk with the Administration’s envoys, who are intent on giving a green light to annexation of large portions of the West Bank. The Palestinians can expect nothing more than a few economic sweeteners, but no state of their own or equal rights within Israel. The Trump plan is a dead letter, but it serves his domestic political interests to appear for a few days a peacemaker. If nothing else, he can declare to his roaring supporters that he deserves the Nobel Prize.
Meanwhile the Democrats are getting ready for the Iowa caucuses February 3 and the New Hampshire primary February 11. Bernie Sanders is leading in polls, but it still looks as if there will be three or four viable candidacies after New Hampshire. Nevada and South Carolina follow, but it will likely be Super Tuesday March 3, when more than 15 primaries are held, before the situation really clarifies. Trump will no doubt have choice words for whoever is emerging as a potential challenger. Honi soit qui mal y pense
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Stevenson’s army, January 23
-A trove of Cybercom documents has been declassified. They reveal interagency disputes over targeting ISIS. The National Security Archive, which gathers FOIA releases, has the documents here.
A Brookings analyst documents the unprecedented turnover of senior national security officials in the Trump administration.
No surprise, but lobbyists had a good year in 2019.
State Dept officials called as witnesses in the impeachment inquiry had staggering legal bills, only about 1/4 paid by the government.
North Korea has named a “hard-lined cantankerous” former military officer as its new foreign minister.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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