Tag: India
Stevenson’s army, February 19
– Background on Trump visit to India.
– CNN says USD/P Rood is being forced out.
-IG finds waste in US support for Syrian forces.
– Congress debates Libya policy.
– A smart idea for how to prepare for future war better.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 14 and 15
February 14
When I saw the list of military programs cut in order to fund the border wall in the new reprogramming request, I was reminded of the congressional backlash when Jimmy Carter, newly in office, vetoed a water projects bill, claiming waste. Speaker Tip O’Neill, who never did develop good relations with Carter, said, “He may know what’s in the budget, but he doesn’t kn ow WHERE it is.”
The Atlantic Council has more on NSA O’Brien’s talk, which it hosted. He claims he’s going back to the Scowcroft model. We can talk about that next week.
A close reading of Huawei statements suggests it can secretly access mobile networks.
NYT has more details on how the US-Taliban agreement will work in practice.
And remember, only a small fraction of people account for most political Tweets.
February 15
The White House sent its explanation/justification for the Suleimani killing to Congress on Friday. Just Security has a legal analysis. WaPo has a news story.
Sarah Binder notes the significance of the Senate vote on Iranian war requirements.
Pompeo’s revenge? He’s cutting aid to the NGO honoring Ambassador Stevens, killed at Benghazi.
DHS at war? Look what it’s doing.
Since US-India trade is part of next week’s exercise, see this CFR backgrounder.
Also see this new CRS paper.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 29
– President Trump unveiled his vision for Arab-Israeli peace. NYT says the Arab reaction was “muted.”
The only money figure I noted was “$50 billion” in “investment” in Palestinian territories, presumably only from Muslim nations. The Netanyahu government plans to seize the moment by annexing territories the Trump plan would allow.
– CNAS has a new report on how to deal with China, commissioned by Congress. It tracks the proposals by CFR and others. There seems to be a consensus on using foreign and domestic policies to compete vigorously with PRC.
– In class we’ll talk a lot about organizational cultures. There’s a new SOCOM report recognizing a need for some changes in its culture.
– Jim Lewis of CSIS analyzes the impact of the UK decision to use some Huawei products.
-FT warns that India and China are both facing stagflation.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 4
– Julia Joffe paints a devastating picture of State under Trump — 52% of ambassadors are political.
– Dennis Jett piles on with more details about the political appointees.
– But in Congress there’s a new Diplomacy Caucus.
– CFR finds Americans ignorant about many foreign policy matters.
– Maybe Israel was behind long delay in giving Lebanon aid.
– Dexter Filkins looks at PM Modi and changing India.
-Optional reading: House Intell Committee report.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | November 18 – November 22
Responding to Armed Groups in Venezuela | November 18, 2019 | 9:30 AM – 11:15 AM | CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Please join CSIS’ Future of Venezuela Initiative for a discussion on how the presence of illegal armed groups affects the transition process in Venezuela, and what the United States, the international community, and other pertinent actors within Latin America can do to mitigate the effect of these groups.
The presence of armed groups in Venezuela significantly affects how policymakers consider addressing the Venezuelan political and humanitarian crisis. The Maduro regime seeks to benefit from Venezuela’s status as a hub for transnational crime and illicit activities, causing policymakers to doubt what the best approach to address the crisis would be. Illegal armed groups finding haven in Venezuela not only adds new threats to Venezuela’s internal security, but also threatens Colombia’s security and the region writ-large. Illegal armed groups in Venezuela include the National Liberation Army (ELN), remnants of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), colectivos, garimpeiros, and other residual organized armed groups (GAO) and criminal gangs.
The event will feature keynote remarks from Colombia’s High Commissioner for Peace, Miguel Ceballos, and from Paul Ahern, the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury Department. The remarks will be followed by a panel with former National Security Advisers to the White House and the former Vice President of Panama, and will be moderated by CSIS’ Moises Rendon.
FEATURING
Fernando Cutz
Senior Associate, The Cohen Group; Former National Security Council
Isabel de Saint Malo de Alvarado
Former Vice President and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Government of Panama
Dan Fisk
Chief Operations Officer, International Republican Institute; Former National Security Council
Juan Cruz
Senior Adviser, CSIS Americas Program; Former National Security Council
Miguel Ceballos
High Commissioner for Peace, Government of Colombia
Paul Ahern
Principal Deputy
Assistant Secretary, U.S. Treasury Department
CSIS Debate Series: Does the U.S. Need a Foreign Policy for sub-Saharan Africa? | November 20, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 11:30 AM | CSIS Headquarters, Floor 2, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Does
democracy foster economic growth? Does great power competition hurt or empower
the continent? Does the U.S. even need a foreign policy for sub-Saharan Africa?
Since the 1990s, there has been a consensus about U.S. priorities and policies
toward the region. While continuity has its merits, it also acts as a brake on
creativity, innovation, and new thinking about U.S. interests in sub-Saharan
Africa. The CSIS Africa Debate Series offers an opportunity to question and
refine policy objectives to meet a changing political landscape.
The CSIS Africa Program with the support of the Open Society Foundations is
hosting a series of debates in Washington, D.C. and other U.S. cities to
challenge old paradigms and identify new approaches to tackle pressing
U.S.-Africa policy issues. For its inaugural debate on November 20, 2019 from
9:00 a.m. to 11:30 a.m., CSIS will pose the question, “Does the United States
need a foreign policy in sub-Saharan Africa?” to former U.S. government
officials and African scholars. Experts will face off to identify the advantages
and disadvantages of U.S. engagement in Africa and to open a dialogue on a new
framework for U.S. foreign policy toward the region. Audience members will vote
key debate points as well as participate in a Question & Answer session.
Save the date, register, and subscribe to
the CSIS Africa Program distribution list to receive updates on the Debate
Series.
FEATURING
Africa Program Director, Wilson Center
Senior Managing Legal Officer, Open Society Justice Initiative
Founding
Partner, Total Impact Capital (TOTAL)
The State of Human Rights in Africa | November 20, 2019 | 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM | Brookings Institution, Saul/Zilkha Room 1775, Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
On a continent as vast and diverse as Africa, there are no simple narratives on freedom and human rights. Like many places in the world, there are hopeful trends and success stories, but also worrisome trends and signs of backsliding. While sincere efforts to enshrine human rights in law are found in most of Africa’s 54 countries, the actual protection of those rights often falls victim to corruption or to violent non-state actors with other designs in mind. But there are reasons for optimism as well as caution — and ample data to show observers where the trends are going. For instance, according to Freedom House, sub-Saharan Africa has about 10 “free” countries (most of them small), about 20 “partly free,” and about 20 more “not free” nations. Recent trends in The Gambia and Angola give rise to optimism, while repressive actions in Tanzania and Uganda suggest they have a ways to go.
On November 20, the Africa Security Initiative at the Brookings Institution will host a panel of experts on human rights trends in Africa. Questions will follow from the audience.
Speakers:
Moderator
Michael E. O’Hanlon
Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy
Director of Research – Foreign Policy
The Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair
Panelists
Mausi Segun
Executive Director, Africa – Human Rights Watch
Tiseke Kasambala
Chief of Party, Advancing Rights in Southern Africa Program – Freedom House
Jon Temin
Director,
Africa Program – Freedom House
Repairing the Damage: The future of U.S. relations with our Syrian Kurdish and the fight against ISIS | November 20, 2019 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | Russell Senate Office, 2 Constitution Ave NE, Room 385, Washington, DC 20002 | Register Here
Turkey’s recent invasion of the predominantly Kurdish region (Rojava) in northeast Syria has upended the successful four year joint operation between the United States and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against ISIS in Syria and left the Syrian Kurds and their partners at the mercy of Putin and Assad to seek protection against advancing Turkish forces.
Nearly 300,000 Kurds, Christians, and Arabs have been displaced and more than 700 people have been killed in the conflict which has also placed the anti-ISIS campaign at risk, including the potential escape of 1000s of ISIS prisoners in SDF-managed camps in eastern Syria. Alongside the Turkish military, radical jihadist fighters backed by Turkey have committed documented war crimes including the brutal murder of female Syrian Kurdish politician, Hevrin Khalaf.
Despite the U.S.-Turkish ceasefire agreement, Turkey and its proxies continue to bombard and invade areas outside the zone and Turkish President Erdogan has continued to reiterate his intention to ‘cleanse’ the area of local inhabitants. Confusion exists over the implications of the recent US decision to redeploy a small number of US forces back into eastern Syria to protect oil resources there.
The panel discussion will address the future relationship between the US and its Syrian Kurdish allies and the way forward to stop Turkey’s military operation, remove Turkish-backed jihadi proxies from the area and prevent the re-emergence of ISIS.
Opening Remarks — Honorable Senator Chris Van Hollen
Panel Discussion
Moderator: Dr. Najmaldin Karim, President of the Washington Kurdish Institute
Ms. Ilham Ahmed, President of the Syrian Democratic Council
Dr. Amy Austin Holmes, Woodrow Wilson International Center &Visiting Professor at Harvard University
Dr. Aykan Erdemir, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Future Geopolitical Realities and Expectations in Syria | November 21, 2019 | 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM | National Press Club, 529 14th St NW, Washington, DC 20045 | Register Here
On November
21st, the Turkish Heritage Organization will host President of the Independent
Syrian Kurdish Association Abdulaziz Tammo, Council of United Syrians and
Americans Executive Director Hamdi Rifai, and TRT World Middle East
Correspondent Sarah Firth for a discussion on “Future
Geopolitical Realities and Expectations in Syria”.
The Role of Women in Syria’s Future | November 21, 2019 | 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM | Middle East Institute, 1763 N Street NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a public event featuring a panel of influential Syrian women, which will focus on the important role of women within Syrian civil society and in local and international initiatives aimed at shaping a better future for Syria. The panel will focus particularly on the contributions made by women in Syria’s ongoing political processes, including the nascent Geneva negotiation track, as well as in the recently UN-convened Constitutional Committee.
Please join us for this timely discussion on the role of women at home and abroad, amid conflict and a continuing search for peace and justice in Syria.
Speakers
Sarah Hunaidi
Writer and human rights activist; member of the Syrian Women’s Political Movement
Rafif Jouejati
Co-founder and Director, FREE-Syria
Jomana Qaddour
Lawyer and analyst; co-founder, Syria Relief & Development
Vivian Salama
Journalist, The Wall Street Journal
Energizing India: Conversations on Energy Access and Security | November 22, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 12:00 PM | 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC | Register Here
India faces various accessibility challenges in rural and urban regions. Smart grid and off-grid solutions subsidized by the Indian government have made the country one of the fastest electrifying in the world. While the Indian government claims 100 percent electrification, and thus significant transmission and distribution infrastructure, energy experts raise questions about the impact of these government-led efforts. As electrification grows among households, new solutions from both public and private sector entities must ensure long-term energy access and security.
Please join the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center and South Asia Center on Friday, November 22, 2019 from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. for a conversation with Shreerupa Mitra, Executive Director of The Energy Forum, about her new book, “Energizing India: Fuelling a Billion Lives.” followed by two expert panels on energy access and security in India.
Book Discussion: Energizing India: Fuelling a Billion Lives
Shreerupa Mitra
Executive
Director
The Energy Forum
Moderated by
Randolph Bell
Director, Global Energy CenterAtlantic Council
Panel I: Ensuring Energy Access
Dr. Johannes Urpelainen
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Professor of Energy,
Resources and Environment; Director, Energy, Resources and Environment Program,
School of Advanced International Studies
Johns Hopkins University
Moderated by
Bina Hussein
Associate Director, Global Energy Center
Atlantic Council
Panel II: Ensuring Energy Security
Amos Hochstein
Former Special Envoy and Coordinator for International
Energy Affairs
US Department of State
Shreerupa Mitra
Executive Director
The Energy Forum
Moderated by
Dr. Irfan Noorruddin
Director, South Asia Center
Atlantic Council
*More speakers to be announced soon*
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More diplomacy, less force
A friend asked today what I thought of the current situation in Syria. I responded:
Predictable and predicted. The Syria commitment was not sustainable. The US needs to reduce its commitments to the Middle East to a level that serves vital interests and is sustainable. It should do that carefully, using diplomacy to ensure no vacuums are left. That can’t happen with this President.
I guess that puts me at least partly in Elizabeth Warren’s camp and opposed to Josh Rogin, who is a fine journalist but far more of an enthusiast for US engagement in the Middle East than I am.
Let me recount the reasons:
- The US is far less dependent on oil, including oil from the Middle East, than once it was.
- The spread of US unconventional production technology has made it difficult for oil prices to top $60/barrel for long. That is a price the US and world economy can and does tolerate easily.
- Other countries should, as Presidents Trump and Obama have suggested, bear more of the burden of protecting Middle East oil supplies, in particular the Chinese, Japanese, and South Koreans since they take most of the oil coming through the strait of Hormuz.
- Middle East producers should be doing more to build pipelines that circumvent Hormuz, and consumers (especially India and China) should be building strategic oil stocks for use in a supply disruption.
- American allies in the Middle East should, after many billions in US arms sales, mainly protect themselves. Israel does already. The Saudis and Emiratis as well as the Qataris should too. Needless to say, the Turks will have to after this latest brush with the US.
- Many American bases in the Middle East are too close to Iran to serve well in wartime. They will need to be evacuated if the balloon ever goes up. Better to get them out sooner rather than later.
- If you are still worried about Middle East terrorism, there is no reason to believe that the drone wars have done anything to reduce it. To the contrary, US presence in the region makes us a prime target.
- The right answer to terrorism is better governance, not drones. Find the people who are serious about improved governance and support them, not the thieves and oppressors who rule in much of the Middle East.
- If you want to counter Russian influence in the Middle East, clearly an unsustainable military presence is not the solution. Syria is going to be a big burden on Moscow. Let them deal with it.
- If you are worried about Iran, get back into the nuclear deal (aka JCPOA) as quickly as possible and try to negotiate an extension. The only serious complaint I am hearing from anyone about the JCPOA is that it expires.
The American drawdown from the Middle East should not be precipitous. It should be cautious and leave no power vacuums. That is what diplomacy is for: we need to be working on regional security arrangements that can guarantee that no one’s interests will be ignored and reasonable compromises will prevail. That effort will require serious attention to threat perceptions, regional trade and infrastructure, people-to-people relations, and traditional conflict management mechanisms in the region. Yes, more diplomacy, less force, and a lot of hard work and commonsense.
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