An article former SAIS student James Mina and I wrote on ‘Circumventing Hormuz’ appears in the February–March 2014 issue of Survival. The International Institute for Strategic Studies today published this related post:
Tag: India
Diversifying Hormuz protection
While my career in recent years has focused on politics, especially in the Balkans and Middle East, I have a long history with energy issues. They were already big in 1972, when I was on the secretariat for the first UN Conference on the Human Environment. Even then global warming was on the agenda. I worked in the mid-1970s at the National Center for Analysis of Energy Systems at Brookhaven National Laboratory and in the late 1970s and early 1980s, handled energy issues as Science Counselor of the US Embassies in Rome and Brasilia.
In 1984 I became director of ‘energy consuming country affairs’ at the State Department, a role that included representing the United States at the International Energy Agency’s Standing Committee on Emergency Questions.
It was while oil prices were low in the mid-1980s that we convinced our IEA partners to put in place the ‘coordinated early stock draw’ procedures that are today an important part of the global response to an oil supply disruption.
But proud as I am of that achievement, I’ve come to believe that we missed opportunities to go much further in building up civilian responses to the problem James Mina and I discuss in my Survival article, ‘Circumventing Hormuz’. Over-reliance on military instruments has been costly and counter-productive. We should long ago have pressed non-IEA oil importers (especially China and India) to increase stocks (and coordinate their drawdown) and oil exporters to ensure supply by building pipelines and using them to their maximum capacity.
The current increase in US oil and gas production, while it does not insulate us from the economic harm due to an oil-supply disruption and the resulting price spike, provides an opportunity to beef up these civilian responses, redistribute burdens and lower American military costs. It also provides an opportunity to make protection of oil flow through Hormuz a multinational responsibility, with contributions from major Asian oil importers. This would relieve some of the burden on the US Navy and make it less likely Iran will ever disrupt Gulf oil supplies.
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Tags : China, Gulf states, India, United States
A decent Syrian election: result, not prelude
Jimmy Carter and Robert Pastor propose an election to resolve Syria’s civil war. They suggest three principles that would have to be accepted as preconditions for negotiating the war’s end:
● Self-determination: The Syrian people should decide on the country’s future government in a free election process under the unrestricted supervision of the international community and responsible nongovernmental organizations, with the results accepted if the elections are judged free and fair;
● Respect: The victors should assure and guarantee respect for all sectarian and minority groups; and
● Peacekeepers: To ensure that the first two goals are achieved, the international community must guarantee a robust peacekeeping force.
And they spell out first steps: Read more
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Tags : Africa, Al Qaeda, Algeria, China, Democracy and Rule of Law, European Union, Gulf states, India, Iran, Iraq, Latin America, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, Russia, Syria, Turkey, United Nations, United States, Yemen
The world according to CFR
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) survey of prevention priorities for 2014 is out today. Crowdsourced, it is pretty much the definition of elite conventional wisdom. Pundits of all stripes contribute.
The top tier includes contingencies with high impact and moderate likelihood (intensification of the Syrian civil war, a cyberattack on critical US infrastructure, attacks on the Iranian nuclear program or evidence of nuclear weapons intent, a mass casualty terrorist attack on the US or an ally, or a severe North Korean crisis) as well as those with moderate impact and high likelihood (in a word “instability” in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Iraq or Jordan). None merited the designation high impact and high likelihood, though many of us might have suggested Syria, Iraq and Pakistan for that category. Read more
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Tags : Afghanistan, Africa, Al Qaeda, Armenia/Azerbaijan, Asia, Bahrain, Balkans, Burma, Central African Republic, China, Cuba, Cybersecurity, Democracy and Rule of Law, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, India, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Palestine, Jordan, Kenya, Kurds, Kyrgyzstan, Latin America, Lebanon, Libya, Mali, Nigeria, North Korea, Nuclear weapons, Pakistan, Russia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, United States, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe
Peace picks, November 4-8
Apologies for the late posting (DPS):
The upcoming week’s top events:
1. Responding to the Rebalance: ASEAN between China and the US
Monday, November 4 | 12:00pm – 1:30pm
East-West Center, Sixth Floor Conference Room, 1819 L Street NW
An Asia-Pacific Security Seminar featuring:
Mr. Julio Amador III
2013 Asia Studies Visiting Fellow, East-West Center in Washington
Foreign Affairs Research Specialist, Philippines’ Foreign Service Institute
Dr. Charmaine Misalucha (Discussant)
Assistant Professor, De La Salle University in Manila, Philippines
The rebalancing of the United States to Asia in an effort to stem China’s surge in regional leadership has placed the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in a difficult position. While ASEAN recognizes China as one of its most important Dialogue Partners, the regional association’s members have always recognized that the US plays a special role in the Asia Pacific as the guarantor of security. Meanwhile, China and the US are set on a rivalry that, while not officially acknowledged, is apparent to observers in Southeast Asia. Within this context, how is ASEAN as a regional organization dealing with Chinese-American rivalry?
Mr. Julio Amador III will describe regional perspectives about the direction of ASEAN in the context of the US Rebalance. He will discuss the tensions in the South China Sea as the backdrop for the rivalry between China and the US, and ASEAN’s subsequent attempts at autonomy in settling the issue. He will also assess ASEAN’s internal dynamics and describe how member-states attempt to form a regional consensus while maintaining their national strategic interests. While China and the US contend for primacy in the region, ASEAN still has a role to play, but only if it is willing to move beyond the narrow strategic limits set by its member states.
This program will be off-the-record; thank you for your cooperation.
A light luncheon will be served.
Julio Amador III is an Asia Studies Visiting Fellow at the East-West Center in Washington and a Fulbright Scholar at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University. He is on leave as a Foreign Affairs Research Specialist at the Center for International Relations and Strategic Studies (CIRSS) of the Philippines’ Foreign Service Institute. He provides policy analysis and strategic advice on ASEAN issues, Southeast Asia security and international relations, and foreign policy to the Department of Foreign Affairs. Mr. Amador has held numerous fellowships in the United States, Europe, and Australia.
Dr. Charmaine Misalucha is currently a US-ASEAN Fulbright Fellow in the School of International Service of American University. She is also an Assistant Professor at De La Salle University in Manila, Philippines, specializing international relations, security studies, and the arms trade. She received her PhD in International Relations from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies of the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
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Tags : Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Asia, China, India, Iran, Iraq, Nuclear weapons, Pakistan, Syria, Taiwan, Tunisia, United States
Peace picks, October 28 – November 1
Out early this week:
1. Impact of Donor Counter-Terrorism Measures on Principled Humanitarian Action
Monday, October 28, 2013 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM
CSIS – 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC
Introductory Remarks by: Sam Worthington , President & CEO, InterAction
Panel Discussion:
Valerie Amos Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, United Nations
Jan Egeland Secretary General, Norwegian Refugee Council
Ambassador Daniel Fried Coordinator of Sanctions Policy, U.S. State Department
Ambassador William Garvelink Senior Adviser, CSIS Project on U.S. Leadership in Development and Former U.S. Ambassador to the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Moderated by: Daniel Runde Director of the Project on Prosperity and Development and William A. Schreyer Chair in Global Analysis, CSIS
Please RSVP to PPD@csis.org.
Despite the global attention to counter-terrorism and human rights issues, the impact of counter-terrorism measures on humanitarian action has not been studied in detail. To address this gap, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the Norwegian Refugee Council released a report in July 2013 entitled the Study of the Impact of Donor Counter-Terrorism Measures on Principled Humanitarian Action. The report takes a comprehensive look at how counter-terror measures are impacting the ability of humanitarian agencies to respond to emergencies, especially in countries on the front lines of the war on terror, and makes recommendations on how to reconcile these measures with the humanitarian imperative. Join us for a conversation with representatives from the United Nations, the Norwegian Refugee Council, and the United States Government as they discuss the impact of these restrictions in countries such as Afghanistan, Somalia, and the West Bank and Gaza, and in countries of possible future impact, including Mali, Pakistan, and Yemen.
2. WOMEN AND PEACEBUILDING: WOMEN’S ROLES IN POLITICAL TRANSITIONS IN YEMEN AND THE REGION
Monday, October 28, 2013 2:30 – 4:00 p.m.
National Democratic Institute 8th Floor Board Room 455 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, D.C.
And streaming online at: www.ndi.org/live
With Amat Al Alim Alsoswa, Delegate, Yemen National Dialogue Conference and former Minister of Human Rights
Susan Markham, Director, Women’s Political Participation, NDI
Summer Lopez, Regional Coordinator for the Middle East (Acting) Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance, USAID
The importance of including women in peace negotiations, transitional governments and long-term political processes is increasingly recognized by national and international bodies as critical for the stability of emerging democracies. In each stage of a country’s transition, whether entrenched in conflict or moving forward in reconciliation, there are opportunities available for women’s inclusion that can have a profound effect on the successful outcome of a country’s transition of power, peace and security.
This discussion will draw upon Yemen’s National Dialogue process and examples from ongoing transitions in the Middle East and North Africa to highlight challenges and lessons learned for promoting women’s participation in peace negotiations and political transitions.
Please RSVP via this webform.
3. Political Turmoil, Human Costs: Reflections on the Kashmir Conflict
OCTOBER 28, 2013 WASHINGTON, DC
3:00 PM – 4:30 PM EST
3:00 PM – 4:30 PM EST
SUMMARY
With incidents along their disputed border still relatively common, India and Pakistan’s decades-old quarrel over Kashmir shows little hope of subsiding.
REGISTER TO ATTEND
With incidents along their disputed border still relatively common, India and Pakistan’s decades-old quarrel over Kashmir shows little hope of subsiding. Join Kashmir-born author and journalist Rahul Pandita for a discussion of the conflict and his new memoir of his childhood in and exile from Kashmir, Our Moon Has Blood Clots(Random House India, 2013).
Pandita will offer a rare perspective on the dispute, combining political analysis with the personal experience of growing up as part of a religious minority group in one of the world’s most unstable regions. Carnegie’s Ashley J. Tellis will moderate.
RAHUL PANDITA
Rahul Pandita is a journalist and author based in New Delhi. He was the 2010 recipient of the International Red Cross award for conflict reporting, and has written extensively about conflict in Iraq, Sri Lanka, and Kashmir.
ASHLEY J. TELLIS
Ashley J. Tellis is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specializing in international security, defense, and Asian strategic issues.
4. New Leadership in Tehran: Time for Rapprochement?
DATE / TIME Monday, October 28, 2013 / 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM
LOCATION Elliott School of International Affairs, SMPA 1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052 (map)
SPEAKER(S) John Limbert, Dr. Shireen Hunter
Ambassador John Limbert, former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iran
Dr. Shireen Hunter, Visiting Fellow, Center for Christian Muslim Understanding and Director, Carnegie Endowment Project on reformist Islam
The George Washington University International Affairs Society and the American Iranian Council will be hosting ‘New Leadership in Iran: Time for Rapprochement?’, a conference that will identify the prospects and mechanisms for a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran relations. The conference aims to build upon the momentum created by the election of moderate Dr. Hassan Rouhani as Iranian President, President Obama’s engagement policy with Tehran and the recent events in Geneva and at the United Nations General Assembly to generate ideas for a possible settlement of the nuclear dossier.
RSVP: bit.ly/GThrgi
Sponsored by the GW International Affairs Society and the American Iranian Council
5. Regional Cooperation: An Imperative for Transatlantic Defense
October 29, 2013 – 1:30 pm
1030 15th Street, NW, 12th Floor
Washington, DC
An address and discussion with
H.E. Carl Haglund
Minster of Defense
Republic of Finland
Introduced and Moderated by
Damon Wilson
Executive Vice President
Atlantic Council
Please join the Atlantic Council for an address by, and discussion with, Finnish Minister of Defense Carl Haglund, who will detail the importance of regional cooperation for transatlantic security.
Building on the successes of Nordic Defense Cooperation (NORDEFCO), Minister Haglund will make a case for NATO member and partner countries to follow a similar framework to sustain present-day interoperability levels and enhance military capabilities. NORDEFCO’s five members states—Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden—use regional networking to increase their interoperability via cross-border cooperation, build-up and maintain necessary military capabilities, and provide cost-effective contributions to international efforts.
Representatives of the press are welcome, and all the proceedings of this event are on-the-record.
When you arrive, please use the the West Tower elevators.
Business attire is requested.
If you encounter problems with the registration process, please contact us.
Bios
H.E. Carl Haglund has been the minister of defense of Finland since July 5, 2012. Previously, he served as the party leader of the Swedish People’s Party, and from 2009 to 2012 he was a member of the European Parliament. In 2008, he assumed the position of state secretary for the minister of culture and sport, and in 2007 he was an adviser to the ministers of the Swedish People’s Party.
6. Iraq’s Transition: Remarks by Iraqi Prime Minister H.E. Mr. Noori al-Maliki
USIP – Thursday, October 31, 2013 10:00am
The United States Institute of Peace will host Iraqi Prime Minister H.E. Mr. Noori al-Maliki for public remarks and a discussion on U.S.-Iraq relations, and the current challenges facing Iraq and the region.
Webcast: This event will be webcast live beginning at 10:00am ET on October 31.
Iraq has made significant progress since the last of U.S. troops left the country in December 2011, but continues to face serious challenges. Iraq’s economy became stronger, provincial and regional elections were organized, and the country has made steady steps toward regaining its regional and international stature. At the same time, the country is struggling with high levels of violence and other spillover effects from Syria, as it tries to hold national elections in 2014 and find a workable common vision of governance.
To discuss these matters and more, kindly join us for what promises to be an interesting event at 10:00-11:30am on October 31, 2013 at USIP’s Headquarters in Washington D.C. Follow the conversation on Twitter with @USIP, @IraqiEmbassyUSA, and #USIPIraq.
Agenda:
Jim Marshall, Opening Remarks and Moderator President, U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador Beth Jones, Introductory Remarks Acting Assistant Secretary of State – Near Eastern Affairs
H.E. Noori al-Maliki, Keynote Remarks Prime Minister of Republic of Iraq
Moderated discussion
7. The Way Forward in Afghanistan: Embracing Opportunity in the Midst of Transition
Thursday October 31, 2013 12:15-1:45pm
New America Foundation
Since 2001, the United States has been heavily engaged in Afghanistan. The failures of this effort have been well documented, but what has often been overlooked are the immense gains that have been achieved.
As Afghanistan enters a turbulent transition period, including presidential elections in April 2014, the ongoing transition from U.S.-led to Afghan-led security operations, and the draw down of U.S. troops, it is important that U.S. policymakers keep the full picture in mind.
Calls for the United States to walk away from Afghanistan ignore the progress that has been made, and such a result would be catastrophic for the people of Afghanistan. It would also call into question the last 12 years of U.S.efforts in the country.
The New America Foundation and the Alliance in Support of the Afghan People are pleased to invite you to a discussion about the prospects for Afghanistan’s future,in light of past progress and upcoming challenges.
Featured Speakers:
Haseeb Humayoon
Member of Afghanistan 1400
Clare Lockhart
President, Institute for State Effectiveness
David Sedney
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Afghanistan,
Pakistan, and Central Asia
Eleanor Smeal
President, Feminist Majority Foundation
Moderator:
Senior Fellow, New America Foundation
To RSVP for the event, click on the red button or go to the event page:
http://www.newamerica.net/events/2013/the_way_forward_in_afghanistan
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Tags : Afghanistan, India, Iran, Iraq, NATO, Pakistan, United Nations, United States, Yemen
Peace picks, October 21-25
With a sense of normalcy returned to the city after the reopening of the government, some timely events coming up this week:
1. Will India’s Economics be a Victim of its Politics?
Monday, October 21 | 2:00pm – 3:30pm
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW
The Indian economy has entered a difficult period over the past eighteen months with the rate of GDP growth having halved, inflation still stubbornly high, and deficits remaining substantial. Economists are asking whether India’s rapid growth of the last decade was more a credit-fueled aberration than a result of structural reforms. To complicate matters, economic concerns are increasingly secondary to political debate as India prepares for critical state elections this winter and parliamentary elections in spring 2014.
Jahangir Aziz and Ila Patnaik will assess the state of India’s economy in the context of India’s growing election fervor. Edward Luce will moderate.
JAHANGIR AZIZ
Jahangir Aziz is senior Asia economist and India chief economist at JP Morgan. He was previously principal economic adviser to the Indian Ministry of Finance and head of the China Division at the International Monetary Fund.
ILA PATNAIK
Ila Patnaik is a nonresident senior associate in Carnegie’s South Asia Program and a professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in New Delhi. She writes regular columns in the Indian Express and the Financial Express and recently co-led the research team for India’s Ministry of Finance Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission.
EDWARD LUCE
Edward Luce is the Washington columnist and former Washington bureau chief of the Financial Times. Earlier he was their South Asia bureau chief based in New Delhi. He is the author of In Spite of the Gods: The Strange Rise of Modern India (2006) and Time to Start Thinking: America and the Spectre of Decline (2012).
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Tags : Afghanistan, Asia, China, Gulf states, India, Japan, Nuclear weapons, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United States
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