Tag: India
This week’s peace picks
A light week as Washington gets back into the swing of things after the holidays.
1. Crux of Asia Conference, Thursday January 10, 9:30 AM – 4:15 PM, Carnegie Endowment
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speakers: Jessica Matthews, Kurt Campbell, David Shambaugh, Frederic Grare, Ashley Tellis, Xia Liping, Srikanth Kondapalli, Daniel Blumenthal, Shen Dingli, Bharath Gopalaswamy, Kevin Pollpeter, Zha Daojiong, Sunjoy Joshi, Sean Mirski
The rise of China and India as major world powers promises to test the established global order in the coming decades. If history is any indication, Beijing, New Delhi, and Washington may all have different visions for this new international system. China and India’s many developmental similarities belie their deep strategic rivalry, which shapes their competing priorities on major global issues. As both states grow, their views on the international system will become increasingly relevant for their relationship, for the United States, and for the world as a whole.
Register for this event here.
2. Discussion with Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction on Challenges Facing the US, Thursday January 10, 2:30 PM – 4:00 PM, Stimson Center
Venue: Stimson Center, 1111 19th Street NW, Washington, DC 20036, 12th Floor
Speakers: John Sopko, Ellen Laipson
In light of plans to transfer security responsibility for Afghanistan to its government by the end of 2014, the United States has a two year window of opportunity to overcome challenges presently facing its reconstruction efforts. Many of those challenges have been identified by audits and investigations conducted by the Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction. Most recently its contributions include chronicling “persistent delays in instituting basic anti-money laundering procedures” at the Kabul Airport, detailing the Afghanistan National Security Forces’ difficulties in assuming responsibility for their operations and maintenance costs, and auditing the US’ Afghanistan Infrastructure Fund in response to schedule slips and inadequate sustainability plans.
Afghanistan’s struggles with insecurity and corruption are likely to continue well past the 2014 transition. Meanwhile the US has entered an era of fiscal austerity that will limit resources available to the Pentagon, State Department, and other government agencies involved in reconstruction. Sustainability has become one of the foremost issues for reconstruction investments as a consequence.
Mr. John Sopko’s address at the Stimson Center is his first on-the-record, public speech since taking office in July 2012, and he will use it to comment on the factors that underpin these challenges. Ellen Laipson, Stimson’s President and CEO, will moderate a panel discussion to follow, adding some additional perspectives about reconstruction efforts. We hope this event will provide a useful public forum to consider the US role in Afghanistan’s reconstruction, through 2014 and beyond.
Register for this event here.
3. Overkill: The Case for Reevaluating the U.S. Nuclear Strategy, Thursday January 10, 6:30 PM – 10:00 PM, Cato Institute
Venue: Cato Institute, 1000 Massachusetts Avenue Northwest, Washington, DC 20001
Speaker: Christopher Preble
The United States has far more nuclear weapons and delivery systems than deterrence requires. The triad of intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and bomber aircraft reflects bureaucratic Cold War planning, not strategic vision. Can the United States achieve an effective nuclear program which makes us safer, while adapting to the need for a smaller defense budget? Join us as Christopher Preble, the Vice President of Defense and Foreign Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, discusses U.S. nuclear strategy, and the need to bring it into the 21st century.
Register for this event here.
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Prevent what?
Most of us who work on international affairs think it would be much better to use diplomacy to prevent bad things from happening rather than waiting until the aftermath and then cleaning up after the elephants, which all too often involves expensive military action. But what precisely would that mean? What do we need to prevent?
The Council on Foreign Relations survey of prevention priorities for 2013 was published last week, just in time to be forgotten in the Christmas rush and New Year’s lull. It deserves notice, as it is one of the few nonpartisan attempts to define American national security priorities. This year’s edition was in part crowd-sourced and categorizes contingencies on two dimensions: impact on U.S. interests (high, medium, low) and likelihood (likely, plausible, unlikely).
Syria comes out on top in both dimensions. That’s a no-brainer for likelihood, as the civil war has already reached catastrophic dimensions and is affecting the broader region. Judging from Paul Stares’ video introduction to the survey, U.S. interests are ranked high in part because of the risk of use or loss of chemical weapons stocks. I’d have ranked them high because of the importance of depriving Iran of its one truly reliable ally and bridge to Hizbollah, but that’s a quibble.
CFR ranks another six contingencies as high impact on U.S. interests and only plausible rather than likely. This isn’t so useful, but Paul’s video comes to the rescue: an Israeli military strike on Iran that would “embroil” the U.S. and conflict with China in the East or South China seas are his picks to talk about. I find it peculiar that CFR does not treat what I would regard as certainly a plausible if not a likely contingency: a U.S. attack on Iran. There are few more important decisions President Obama will need to make than whether to use force to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Certainly it is a far more challenging decision than whether to go to war against China in the territorial disputes it is generating with U.S. allies in Pacific. I don’t know any foreign policy experts who would advise him to go in that direction.
It is striking that few of the other “plausible” and high-impact contingencies are amenable to purely military responses:
- a highly disruptive cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure
- a mass casualty attack on the U.S. homeland or on a treaty ally
- severe internal instability in Pakistan, triggered by a civil-military crisis or terror attack
It is not easy to determine the origin of cyberattacks, and not clear that a military response would be appropriate or effective. The same is also sometimes true of mass casualty attacks; our military response to 9/11 in Afghanistan has enmired the United States in its longest war to date, one where force is proving inadequate as a solution. It is hard to imagine any military response to internal instability in Pakistan, though CFR offers as an additional low probability contingency a possible U.S. military confrontation with Islamabad “triggered by a terror attack or U.S. counterterror operations.”
In the “moderate” impact on U.S. interests, CFR ranks as highly likely “a major erosion of security in Afghanistan resulting from coalition drawdown.” I’d certainly have put that in high impact category, as we’ve still got 100,000 troops in Afghanistan and a significant portion of them will still be there at the end of 2013. In the “moderate” impact but merely plausible category CFR ranks:
- a severe Indo-Pakistan crisis that carries risk of military escalation, triggered by a major terror attack
- a severe North Korean crisis caused by another military provocation, internal political instability, or threatening nuclear weapons/ICBM-related activities
- a significant increase in drug trafficking violence in Mexico that spills over into the United States
- continuing political instability and emergence of a terrorist safe haven in Libya
Again there are limits to what we can do about most of these contingencies by conventional military means. Only a North Korea crisis caused by military provocation or threats would rank be susceptible to a primarily military response. The others call for diplomatic and civilian responses in at least a measure equal to the possible military ones.
CFR lets two “moderate” impact contingencies languish in the low probability category that I don’t think belong there:
- political instability in Saudi Arabia that endangers global oil supplies
- renewed unrest in the Kurdish dominated regions of Turkey and the Middle East
There is a very real possibility in Riyadh of a succession crisis, as the monarchy on the death of the king will likely move to a next generation of contenders. Kurdish irredentist aspirations are already a big issue in Iraq and Syria. It is hard to imagine this will not affect Iran and Turkey before the year is out. Neither is amenable to a purely military response.
Most of the contingencies with “low” impact on U.S. interests are in Africa:
- a deepening of violence in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo that involves military intervention from its neighbors
- growing popular unrest and political instability in Sudan
- military conflict between Sudan and South Sudan
- renewed ethnic violence in Kenya surrounding March 2013 presidential election
- widespread unrest in Zimbabwe surrounding the electoral process and/or the death of Robert Mugabe
- failure of a multilateral intervention to push out Islamist groups from Mali’s north
This may tell us more about CFR and the United States than about the world. Africa has little purchase on American sentiments, despite our half-Kenyan president. All of these contingencies merit diplomatic attention, but none is likely to excite U.S. military responses of more than a purely emergency character, except for Mali. If you’ve got a few Islamist terrorists, you can get some attention even if you are in Africa.
What’s missing from this list? CFR mentions
…a third Palestinian intifada, a widespread popular unrest in China, escalation of a U.S.-Iran naval clash in the Persian Gulf, a Sino-Indian border crisis, onset of elections-related instability and violence in Ethiopia, unrest in Cuba following the death of Fidel Castro and/or incapacitation of Raul Castro, and widespread political unrest in Venezuela triggered by the death or incapacitation of Hugo Chavez.
I’d add intensification of the global economic slowdown (high probability, high impact), failure to do more about global warming (also high probability, delayed impact), demographic or financial implosion in Europe or Japan (and possibly even the U.S.), Russian crackdown on dissent, and resurgent Islamist extremism in Somalia. But the first three of these are not one-year “contingencies,” which shows one limit of the CFR exercise.
I would also note that the world is arguably in better shape at the end of 2012 than ever before in history. As The Spectator puts it:
Never has there been less hunger, less disease or more prosperity. The West remains in the economic doldrums, but most developing countries are charging ahead, and people are being lifted out of poverty at the fastest rate ever recorded. The death toll inflicted by war and natural disasters is also mercifully low. We are living in a golden age.
May it last.
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This week’s peace picks
There are many interesting events this week to shake us out of our tryptophan-induced post-holiday slumber.
1. The Pathway to Peace in the Middle East Begins with President Obama, Monday November 26, 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speakers: Marwan Muasher, Aaron David Miller, William Quandt, Daniel C. Kurtzer
What used to be the measuring stick for a president’s foreign policy legacy – bringing Palestinians and Israeli leaders together to negotiate a lasting peace – has in recent years been largely ignored, overshadowed by the imposing threat of a nuclear Iran and for the first time rarely garnering a mention on the presidential campaign trail.
The outbreak of renewed violence in recent days underscores the pressing need to urgently refocus on reaching a negotiated settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian issue. In his second term, President Obama should actively reengage in efforts to broker peace in the Middle East through a two-state solution that allows Israelis and Palestinians to live side by side in peace and security.
It is clear that leaders in the region will not take the initiative to restart a serious peace process. President Obama should therefore focus the resources available to him to actively reengage in efforts to broker peace in the Middle East through a two-state solution that allows Israelis and Palestinians to live side by side in peace and security.
Join the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace for a discussion with former U.S. ambassador to Israel Daniel Kurtzer, former Jordanian deputy prime minister and foreign minister Marwan Muasher, former National Security Council official William Quandt, and former U.S. peace negotiator Aaron David Miller.
The forum will take a close look at Pathways to Peace: America and the Arab-Israeli Conflict, a collection of policy essays edited by Ambassador Kurtzer that brings together the world’s leading practitioners and scholars to counter the status quo and make a serious effort to advance Palestinian-Israeli peace. The book argues that a pathway to peace is within reach and that sustained American leadership is what is needed to help “regional leaders bridge their differences.”
Register for this event here.
2. Ambassador Dennis Ross and U.S. Policy in the Middle East in the Next Administration, Monday November 26, 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM, American University School of International Service
Venue: American University School of International Service, intersection of Nebraska Avenue NW and New Mexico Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20016, The Abramson Family Founders Room
Speakers: Dennis Ross, James Goldgeier
Join us for the fall semester Dean’s discussion with guest, Ambassador Dennis Ross. Dean Goldgeier and Ambassador Ross discuss U.S. Policy in the Middle East in the next U.S. administration. Ambassador Dennis Ross is the Ziegler Distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Ross served as a counselor from 2001-2009 and rejoined the Institute in December 2011 after serving two years as special assistant to President Obama as well as National Security Council senior director for the Central Region, and a year as special advisor to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, focusing on Iran. For more than twelve years, Ambassador Ross played a leading role in shaping U.S. involvement in the Middle East peace process and dealing directly with the parties in negotiations. Ambassador Ross serves on the SIS Dean’s Council.
Register for this event here.
3. The Price of Greatness: the Next Four Years of U.S. Foreign Policy, Tuesday November 27, 8:00 AM – 3:45 PM, Newseum
Venue: Newseum, 555 Pennsylvania Avennue NW, Washington, DC 20001, use the Freedom Forum entrance on 6th Street between Pennsylvania Avenue and C Street
Speakers: Jamie M. Fly, Jon Kyl, William Kristol, Kim Beazley, Jose L. Cuisia Jr., Nirupama Rao, J. Randy Forbes, Bernard-Henri Levi, John McCain, Robert Kagan, Joe Lieberman, Kelly Ayotte, Shin Dong-Hyuk, Christian Caryl, Adam Kinzinger, Tom Cotton, Dan Senor
In the next four years, the United States will face a wide array of international challenges. Iran continues to progress toward a nuclear weapons capability, China is expanding its military and economic power, and uncertainty over the outcome of the Arab Spring persists. These challenges will require substantial American leadership and a willingness to confront the looming budgetary crisis that underpins our involvement in the world.
Full schedule for this event here.
Register for this event here.
4. Center for Peacemaking Practice Lunch: the Ethics of Practice, Tuesday November 27, 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM, George Mason University
Venue: George Mason University, Arlington Campus, 3301 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 2201, Truland Building, Room 555
Speaker: Lisa Shaw
Do you learn from your own engagement in conflict? Are you interested in sharing you practical experience with others, or learning more about practical engagement in conflict? Come and join the Center for Peacemaking Practice for our bi-weekly Practitioner Lunches. Lunches are open to anyone interested in attending, regardless of experience!
RSVP for this event to cppgmu@gmu.edu.
5. Less is Better: Nuclear Restraint at Low Numbers, Tuesday November 27, 3:30 PM – 6:00 PM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speakers: James M. Acton, Malcolm Chalmers, Joan Rohlfing
Current prospects for likely future nuclear reductions remain limited to the long-standing bilateral U.S.-Russia framework. However, consideration must be given to multilateral nuclear restraint as well as the arsenals of the United States and Russia. In his recent paper Less Is Better: Nuclear Restraint at Low Numbers, funded by the Nuclear Threat Initiative, Malcolm Chalmers explores the steps that other nuclear-armed states would need to take to enable progress to low numbers. Are binding numerical limits required soon or should they be a more distant long-term goal? What steps are feasible in the short term? What can be done to build trust among key actors?
Please join the Carnegie Nuclear Policy Program and the Nuclear Threat Initiative for a discussion of the paper’s key findings with a reception to follow. Joan Rohlfing will deliver opening remarks. James Acton will moderate.
Register for this event here. (http://www.carnegieendowment.org/events/forms/?fa=registration&event=3866)
6. Civilians and Modern War: Armed Conflict and the Ideology of Violence, Tuesday November 27, 7:15 PM – 9:15 PM, George Mason University
Venue: George Mason University, Arlington Campus, 3301 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 2201, Truland Building, Room 555
Speakers: Daniel Rothbart, Karina Korostelina, Mohammed Cherkaoui
Join Us for Food – and a Lively Discussion! This book explores the issue of civilian devastation in modern warfare, focusing on the complex processes that effectively establish civilians’ identity in times of war.
Civilians and Modern War provides a critical overview of the plight of civilians in war, examining the political and normative underpinnings of the decisions, actions, policies, and practices of major sectors of war. In sixteen chapters the contributors seek to undermine the ‘tunnelling effect’ of the militaristic framework regarding the experiences of noncombatants.
Underpinning the physicality of war’s tumult are structural forces that create landscapes of civilian vulnerability. Such forces operate in four sectors of modern warfare: nationalistic ideology, state-sponsored militaries, global media, and international institutions. Each sector promotes its own constructions of civilian identity in relation to militant combatants: constructions that prove lethal to the civilian noncombatant who lacks political power and decision-making capacity with regards to their own survival.
RSVP for this event to carevent@gmu.edu.
7. WJP Rule of Law Index 2012 Special Presentation, Wednesday November 28, 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM, Newseum
Venue: Newseum, 555 Pennsylvania Avennue NW, Washington, DC 20001, Knight Studio, 3rd Floor, use the Freedom Forum entrance on 6th Street between Pennsylvania Avenue and C Street
On Wednesday, November 28, the WJP Rule of Law Index 2012 report covering 97 countries and jurisdictions, representing over 90 percent of the world’s population, will be released at an event in Washington, D.C.
The WJP Rule of Law Index® is an assessment tool that offers a comprehensive picture of adherence to the rule of law. The 2012 report is the third in an annual series and includes, for the first time, a total of 97 countries and jurisdictions.
The Index and its findings have been referenced in major global media, including The Economist, The New York Times, The Washington Post, and El País; stimulated discussions and actions on the rule of law in countries around the world; and been cited by heads of state and chief justices, as supporting evidence of the need to advance rule of law reforms in their countries.
The report is a product of five years of intensive development, testing, and vetting – including interviewing 97,000 members of the general public and more than 2,500 experts in the following 97 countries.
RSVP for this event to ruleoflawindex@wjpnet.org.
8. Homeland Security: a Look Back and Ahead, Wednesday November 28, 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM, George Washington University
Venue: The George Washington University, 805 21st Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Jack Morton Auditorium
Speakers: Joseph Lieberman, Steven Knapp, Frank Cilluffo, Rick “Ozzie” Nelson
Please join HSPI and CSIS for a discussion featuring Senator Joseph Lieberman, Chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. During his distinguished Senate career, Senator Lieberman has been at the forefront of a range of national and homeland security issues and challenges. He championed legislation creating the Department of Homeland Security, and has played a leadership role on counterterrorism policy and efforts to increase U.S. investment in defense and transform our armed forces to better meet the threats of the 21st century. Senator Lieberman will look back and ahead, addressing key past events as well as homeland security challenges for the future.
Register for this event here.
9. Department of Homeland Security at 10: Past, Present, and Future, Wednesday November 28, 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM, Open Society Foundations
Venue: Open Society Foundations, 1730 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20006S,
Speakers: Stephen Vladeck, Michael German, Seth Grossman, Jamil Jaffer, Wendy Patten
On November 25, 2002, then President George W. Bush signed the Homeland Security Act, which established the Department of Homeland Security and called for the largest federal government reorganization since the creation of the Department of Defense in 1947. On Wednesday, November 28, join the American Constitution Society for Law and Policy and the Open Society Foundations for a panel discussion covering a decade of DHS accomplishments, successes, failures, and controversies, as well as suggested national security policies looking forward. A light lunch will be served at 11:45.
Register for this event here.
10. The Future of U.S.-Egyptian Relations: Engagement without Illusions, Wednesday November 28, 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Venue: The Washington Institute, 1828 L Street NW, Washington, DC 20036, Suite 1050, Stern Library and Conference Room
Speakers: Vin Weber, Gregory Craig
As the Gaza conflict underscores, today’s Egypt — with its first-ever civilian president, Islamist leader Muhammad Morsi — is a very different country from the one with which successive U.S. administrations built a strategic partnership for more than thirty years. Fundamental change in Egypt mandates an equally fundamental reassessment of the bilateral relationship. In a report by the bipartisan Task Force on the Future of U.S.-Egypt Relations, two veteran foreign policy practitioners examine the profound yet uncertain change in Cairo since the heady days of Tahrir Square and offer specific recommendations to the Obama administration on how to secure U.S. interests with the “new Egypt.” To discuss these issues, The Washington Institute cordially invites you to a Policy Forum luncheon with Vin Weber and Gregory B. Craig.
Register for this event here.
11. Fortress Israel, Wednesday November 28, 12:15 PM – 1:45 PM, New America Foundation
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L Street NW, Washington, DC 20036, Suite 400
Speakers: Patrick Tyler, Peter Bergen
As footage of rocket attacks in Israel and Gaza once again fill television screens around world, we are reminded of how flammable the Israeli/Palestinian issue remains today. Former New York Times Chief Correspondent Patrick Tyler argues in his new book, Fortress Israel, that the pervasive influence of Israel’s military establishment has overwhelmed every competing institution, especially those devoted to diplomacy and negotiation. As a result, political leaders find themselves with few diplomatic options in the long term struggle with the Arabs. Tyler laments that the handful of Israeli leaders who have set peace as a strategic objective have failed or, as in the case of Yitzhak Rabin, were killed by extremists.
On November 28, the New America Foundation will host Tyler for a conversation about Fortress Israel, and the Israeli military officials who have created and sustained their nation’s highly martial culture.
Register for this event here.
12. The Future of the Pakistan-U.S. Relationship Between Now and 2014, Wednesday November 28, 2:30 PM – 4:00 PM, USIP
Venue: USIP, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037
Speakers: Sajit Ghandi, Simbal Khan, Michael Phelan, Moeed Yusuf
As we approach the 2014 transition in Afghanistan, the role of regional neighbors in contributing to and/or undermining transition processes becomes more important than ever before. Pakistan’s outlook regarding the “end game” in Afghanistan, and the dynamics of the Pakistan-U.S. relationship, remain crucial in this regard. The steadily deteriorating Pakistan-U.S. relationship during the past two years has been very detrimental to the collaboration needed for both sides to come up with a more convergent vision for the “end game” in Afghanistan. The state of the Pakistan-U.S. relationship over the next two years will be a critical factor in determining Pakistan’s role in the 2014 transition in Afghanistan. Both sides must improve ties despite a deep lack of trust and the negative political and public opinion they face in each other’s capitals.
Please join USIP for a panel discussion on the near to medium term future of the Pakistan-U.S. relationship. Panelists will examine whether the U.S. outlook towards Pakistan is likely to change in President Obama’s second term and if so, how? What will be the pros and cons of the likely policy shift? What are the expectations from both sides going forward?
Register for this event here.
13. Book Talk: the Soldier and the Changing State, Wednesday November 28, 2:30 PM – 5:00 PM, National Defense University
Venue: National Defense University, 300 5th Avenue SW, Fort Lesley J. McNair, Washington, DC 20319, Lincoln Hall, Room 1119
Speakers: Zoltan Barany, Dennis Blair, Samuel Worthington
Discussion of book The Soldier and the Changing State: Building Democratic Armies in Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas by Professor Zoltan Barany, University of Texas, Austin. Hosted by the Center for Complex Operations at the National Defense University
RSVP for this event to mark.ducasse.ctr@ndu.edu.
14. The Changing Strategic Environment in the Middle East, Wednesday November 28, 6:00 PM, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service
Venue: Georgetown University, 37th and O Street NW, Washington, DC 20007, Healy Hall
Speaker: Dan Schueftan
Dr. Dan Schueftan is the Director of the National Security Studies Center at the University of Haifa, a Senior Lecturer at the School of Political Sciences there and at the Israel Defense Forces National Defense College. He is the Aaron and Cecile Goldman Visiting Professor in the Department of Government during the 2012-2013 academic year.
Register for this event here.
15. Gender and Genocide: Masculinity, Femininity & the Potentials of GBV as an Early Warning Indicator of Genocide, Wednesday November 28, 6:30 PM – 9:00 PM, George Mason University
Venue: George Mason University, Arlington Campus, 3301 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 2201, Truland Building, Room 555
Speakers: Elizabeth Mount, Kate O’Hare, Andrea Bartoli, Leslie Dwyer, Tetsushi Ogata
This conversation plans to go beyond discussions of sexual violence, exploring gender as a central element which foments and justifies genocide. Furthermore, gender neutral frameworks fail to identify distinguishing types of violence characteristic of early stages of genocide. Conceptualizing gender as a central defining component of genocide offers told useful for developing an early warning system.
Register for this event here.
16. Israel’s Right to Defend Itself: Implications for Regional Security and U.S. Interests, Thursday November 29, 7:30 AM, Rayburn House Office Building
Venue: The House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 2170 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC 20515
Speaker: Elliott Abrams
17. Dissertation Defense: Displacement of the Kashmiri Pandits: Dynamics of Policies and Perspectives of Policymakers, Thursday November 29, 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM, George Mason University
Venue: George Mason University, Arlington Campus, 3301 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 2201, Truland Building, Room 555
Speakers: Sudha Rajput, Karina Korostelina, Kevin Avruch, Carlos Sluzki
The magnitude of the social phenomenon of the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) is a daunting humanitarian challenge with twenty-five million people currently in displacement. Based on the premise that the displacement of over 250,000 Kashmiri Pandits from the Kashmir Valley, beginning in 1989, had ruptured the very fabric of this community, this study investigates the impact of positions and perspectives of the policyholders, the host community and the IDPs and scrutinizes the resulting three-way dynamic. Through semi-structured field-based interviews with high level officials, the business leaders of the host communities and the IDPs living in a myriad of camps, this study unfolds the many political, social, cultural and psychological dimensions of this displacement.
The findings reveal that the policymaking process is a direct function of the perception of the policymakers about the IDPs and their mindset about the reasons for their displacement. In addition, the official positions and labels preclude long-term solutions for those internally displaced and spillover into the IDP/Host dynamic. The ambiguous narratives meant to favor the elite, have the potential to empower the IDPs, which negates the policy impact. Armed with an understanding of the key variables that shape the policymaking process and the IDP/Host dynamic, the findings are key to policy formulation and societal reforms. The study identifies specific roles for the international community as well as the national governments in addressing and in the handling of internal displacement and empowers the Conflict Resolution practitioners with tools to perform an accurate diagnostics of the displaced communities worldwide.
18. The Battle for Syria, Friday November 30, 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS, Rome Building, 1619 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Rome Auditorium
Speaker: Radwan Ziadeh
Radwan Ziadeh, executive director of the Washington-based Syrian Center for Political and Strategic Studies, will discuss this topic and provide insights on the recent events in Syria.
RSVP for this event to menaclub.sais@gmail.com.
19. Nuclear Policy Talks: Etel Solingen on Sanctions, Statecraft, and Nonproliferation, Friday November 30, 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Lindner Family Commons, Room 602
Speaker: Etel Solingen
Etel Solingen, Chancellor’s Professor of Political Science, UC Irvine. Dr. Solingen will speak on her new book, Sanctions, Statecraft, and Nonproliferation.
Register for this event here.
20. Inside Syria, Friday November 30, 12:15 PM – 1:45 PM, New America Foundation
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L Street NW, Washington, DC 20036, Suite 400
Speakers: Janine di Giovanni, Peter Bergen
By some estimates, the violent conflict wracking Syria has taken almost 40,000 lives since it began in March 2011. The world has been able to experience a portion of the horror alongside Syrian civilians through the footage and images of the fighting that have poured out of the country, though few Western journalists have been able to cover the war first-hand.
Please join the New America Foundation’s National Security Studies Program for a discussion with award-winning war reporter Janine Di Giovanni about her experiences inside Syria. Di Giovanni, whose on-the-ground reporting on the war was recently featured in The New York Times, Granta and Newsweek, is a contributing editor at Vanity Fair, has won five major journalistic awards, was one of the only reporters to witness the fall of Grozny, Chechnya, and has written five books, the last of which recently won Memoir of the Year in Britain. She currently lives in Paris and served as the President of the Jury of the Prix Bayeux for War Reporters in 2010.
Register for this event here.
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This week’s peace picks
A very light holiday week comes as a break after the flurry of post-election events.
1. America and China in the Aftermath of Election and Succession: Paths and Pitfalls, Monday November 19, 9:15 AM – 12:00 PM, Brookings
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Falk Auditorium
Speakers: Jonathon D. Pollack, Cheng Li, Kenneth G. Lieberthal, J. Stapleton Roy, Alan Romberg, Jeffrey A. Bader, Michael Swaine
The reelection of President Barack Obama and the convening of China’s 18th National Congress only days later highlight converging political calendars that may set the contours of U.S.-China relations and East Asian politics for years to come. However, uncertainties remain, with China’s political, economic and strategic trajectories subject to major internal and external pressures. At the same time, the United States confronts a daunting, long deferred set of fiscal challenges that could reshape U.S. foreign and security policy options.
Register for this event here.
2. Militancy and the Arab Spring, Monday November 19, 12:15 PM – 1:45 PM, New America Foundation
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L Street NW, Washington, DC 20036, Suite 400
Speakers: Peter Bergen, Leila Hilal, Souad Mekhennet
The deaths of four American diplomats in Benghazi, Libya in September, along with the reports of militant jihadists’ participation in the Syrian conflict, have given rise to serious concerns about the role of Islamist extremists in the various theaters of the “Arab Uprising.” Al-Qaeda and its affiliated terrorist groups have suffered severe blows since 9/11, but the chaos and confusion surrounding the revolutions that have roiled the Arab world could provide such organizations with fertile ground for recruiting new members.
Register for this event here.
3. U.S.-India Military Engagement, Tuesday November 20, 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM, CSIS
Venue: CSIS, 1800 K Street NW, Washington DC, 20006, B1 Conference Room
Speakers: Karl F. Inderfurth, S. Amer Latif, Walter Doran
Bilateral military cooperation has deepened substantially between the U.S. and India over the past decade. The next challenge is to see whether military relations can transition to engagement that is more normal, routine, expected. Join the CSIS U.S.-India Chair and guest panelist Admiral (ret.) Walter Doran — who is featured in our October newsletter — for a discussion of the findings, recommendations, and conclusions of our latest report, entitled “U.S.-India Military Engagement: Steady as They Go.”
Register for this event here.
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This week’s peace picks
The dog days of summer are over as far as DC events are concerned
1. A Conversation with Rudwan Dawod on his Incarceration in The Sudan, Tuesday September 4, 2:00pm-3:30pm
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004, fifth floor conference room
Speakers: Rudwan Dawod, Tom Prichard, Michael Van Dusen
The Africa Program of the Woodrow Wilson Center would like to invite you to a presentation by Rudwan Dawod on Tuesday, September 4. Rudwan has been the facilitator for reconciliation and humanitarian projects with Sudan Sunrise since 2009, and is the project director for a reconciliation project in which Muslims from Sudan, South Sudan and the U.S. are rebuilding a Catholic Cathedral in Torit, South Sudan. In late May, Rudwan left his wife and home in Springfield, Oregon to travel to South Sudan to direct this inter-faith reconciliation project. During a lull in the project, Rudwan took a side trip to visit family in Sudan, and renew his Sudanese Passport. Concerned for the future of his country, and dedicated to peace and democracy, Rudwan attended a peaceful demonstration on July 3rd to protest the Sudanese government’s recent austerity policies, and ongoing violence in the Nuba Mountains, Blue Nile, and Darfur. Subsequently, Rudwan was arrested, beaten until unconscious, tortured, charged with terrorism, and retained in prison for 44 days. With the help of the advocacy community, the US government, and the media, Rudwan was eventually acquitted and released. Please join us to welcome Rudwan home and hear him tell his remarkable story.
Register for this event here.
2. Organizing the U.S. Government to Counter Islamist Extremism, Wednesday September 5, 12:00pm-2:00pm
Venue: Hudson Institute, 1015 15th Street, N.W. 6th Floor, Washington, D.C. 20005
Speakers: James Glassman, Will Marshall, Douglas J. Feith, William A. Galston, Abram N. Shulsky
Lunch will be served. For all the progress the United States has made in fighting terrorist networks, there has been a general failure to confront the terrorism problem’s ideological center of gravity. A new Hudson Institute study examines how the U.S. government could mount an effort to address this failure by working to change the ideological climate in the Muslim world. The study identifies which types of governmental and nongovernmental organizations should be created to conduct this effort. Produced by Douglas J. Feith and Abram N. Shulsky of Hudson Institute and William A. Galston of Brookings, the study argues that the various Islamist terrorist groups around the world are linked by ideology— common beliefs about their duties as Muslims that spawn and intensify hostility to the United States and to the West in general. You are invited to a panel discussion in which two distinguished commentators will discuss the report with its authors: Commentators: James Glassman, Executive Director of the George W. Bush Institute and former Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs in the George W. Bush Administration Will Marshall, Founder and President of the Progressive Policy Institute Authors: Douglas J. Feith, Hudson Institute Senior Fellow and former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in the George W. Bush Administration William A. Galston, Brookings Institution Ezra K. Zilkha Chair in Governance Studies and former Deputy Assistant to President Clinton for Domestic Policy Abram N. Shulsky, Hudson Institute Senior Fellow and former Defense Department official.
Register for this event here.
3. An Egyptian Point of View about the Arab Uprisings, Wednesday September 5, 7:30pm-9:00pm
Venue: Al-Hewar Center, 120 Cherry Street, S.E., Vienna, VA 22180
Speakers: Ashraf Al-Bayoumi
A conversation with Dr. Ashraf Al-Bayoumi. Egyptian professor and activist, about “An Egyptian Point of View about the Arab Uprisings.” (in Arabic)
Register for this event here
4. Infrastructure and Business Opportunities in North Africa, Thursday September 6, 8:30am-11:ooam
Venue: City Club of Washington, DC, 555 13th Street, NW, Washington, DC 20004
Speakers: Carl Kress, Randa Fahmy Hudome, Steven Mayo, Deborah McCarthy, Cenk Sidar, Curtis Silvers, John Duke Anthony
A discussion on “Infrastructure and Business Opportunities in North Africa” featuring Mr. Carl Kress, Regional Director for the Middle East, North Africa and Europe Region, U.S. Trade and Development Agency; Ms. Randa Fahmy Hudome, President, Fahmy Hudome International; Mr. Steven Mayo, Business Development Officer, Project and Structured Finance, Export-Import Bank of the United States; Ms. Deborah McCarthy, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary and Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Finance and Development, Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs, U.S. Department of State; Mr. Cenk Sidar, Founder and Managing Director, Sidar Global Advisors; and Mr. Curtis Silvers, Executive Vice President, National U.S.-Arab Chamber of Commerce; moderated by Dr. John Duke Anthony, Founding President & CEO, National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations; Member, U.S. Department of State Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy and its subcommittees on Sanctions and Trade and Investment.
Register for this event here.
5. CISSM Forum: ‘The Future of Indo-Pak Relations,’ Thursday September 6, 12:15pm-1:3opm
Venue: University of Maryland, College Park, 7950 Baltimore Avenue, College Park, MD, 1203 Van Munching Hall
Speakers: Stephen P. Cohen
‘The Future of Indo-Pak Relations’, Stephen P. Cohen, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Register for this event here.
6. When ‘Ordinary People’ Join In: Understanding Moments of Mass Mobilization in Argentina (2001), Egypt (2011), and Ukraine (2004), Thursday September 6, 4:00pm-5:00pm
Venue: Elliot School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052, Voesar Conference Room
Speakers: Olga Onuch
Olga Onuch, Newton Prize Fellow in Comparative Politics, University of Oxford This presentation examines the differences between moments of mass-mobilization and the long term process of activist mobilization that precedes them. Ukraine in 2004, Egypt in 2011, and Argentina in 2001 represent cases where a history of activist coordination was the basis for, and key instrument in, the mobilization of ‘ordinary’ people. The presenter will argue against the predominant focus on exogenous and economic factors and instead emphasize local actors and political variables in explaining the presence or absence of mass-mobilization. Part of IERES Petrach Program on Ukraine. Sponsored by the Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies.
Register for this event here.
7. The Arab Awakening and its Implications, Thursday September 6, 6:oopm-7:oopm
Venue: Georgetown School of Foreign Service, 37 St NW and O St NW, Washington, DC, ICC Auditorium
Speaker: Dennis Ross
Returning PJC faculty member, Ambassador Dennis Ross, will present a lecture on ‘The Arab Awakening and its Implications’.
RSVP requested. A light reception will follow.
Register for this event here.
8. Will the Ongoing Nuclear Talks with Iran Yield Better Results than Past Efforts? Friday September 7, 10:00am-12:00pm
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
Speakers: Trita Parsi, Mustafa Kibaroglu, Monica Herz, Michael Adler, Robert S. Litwak
The pursuit of an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program remains at the top of the nonproliferation agenda. The unsuccessful mediation effort led by Brazil and Turkey in May 2010 was followed by the adoption of more economic sanctions by the international community. Last April, the government of Iran resumed negotiations with representatives of the five permanent members of the Security Council, plus Turkey and Germany. Four meetings have taken place in Switzerland, Turkey, and Russia. Talks are expected to continue after the U.S. presidential elections. Five experts will take stock of the negotiations in comparison with earlier efforts. Experts who participated in a February 2011 seminar on the Brazilian-Turkish mediation will return to the Wilson Center to assess the ongoing negotiations and possible outcomes.
Register for this event here.
9. Road to a Free Syria: Should “Responsibility to Protect” Apply to the Syrian Conflict? Friday, September 7, 12:00-2:00
Venue: Hudson Institute, 15 15th Street, N.W. 6th Floor, Washington, D.C. 20005
Speakers: Marah Bukai, Naser Khader, Nasser Rabbat, Kert Werthmuller
‘Responsibility to Protect’ (R2P)—a widely acknowledged principle of international relations—holds that the State carries the primary responsibility for the protection of its population from mass atrocities and, moreover, that the international community has a responsibility to assist States in fulfilling this responsibility. A panel of distinguished experts will discuss the applicability of R2P to the Syrian conflict while shedding light on current events inside Syria, international reactions to those events, and projections for securing a stable and prosperous post-Assad Syria. Panelists: Marah Bukai, Syrian poet, Consultant, U.S. Department of State, and political activist involved in the Syrian revolution
Naser Khader, Adjunct Fellow, Hudson Institute, and former Member of the Danish Parliament
Nasser Rabbat, Aga Khan Professor and the Director of the Aga Khan Program for Islamic Architecture, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Moderator: Kurt Werthmuller, Research Fellow, Hudson Institute’s Center for Religious Freedom
Register for this event here.
10. Stabilizing the Sinai, Churches for International Peace, Friday September 7, 12:00pm-1:30pm
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers: Art Hughes, Geoffrey Aronson
Rising lawlessness and violence and an increasing death toll in the Sinai Peninsula by terrorist and criminal elements since the fall of the Mubarak regime threaten the security of Egypt, Israel, and their 1979 peace treaty. The unresolved competition over governance in Egypt between the Muslim Brotherhood government led by President Mohammed Morsi on one hand and the Egyptian army on the other are complicating factors, as is the continued Israeli closure of Gaza, whose Hamas government has strong ties to the Egyptian Brotherhood.
Ambassador (ret.) Art Hughes and Geoffrey Aronson will discuss the stakes for all the parties, including the U.S., and suggest what is needed to restore peace in the Sinai.
Register for this event here.
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This week’s peace picks
Africa and India take the spotlight in this relatively quiet week:
1. Assessing Governance in Rwanda, 10:00am-11:30am, Tuesday, August 7
Venue: International Republican Institute
The International Republican Institute’s Democratic Governance Speakers Series and the Atlantic Council invite you to a discussion on governance in Rwanda with Professor Anastase Shyaka, Chief Executive Officer of the Rwanda Governance Board; and Dr. J. Peter Pham, the Director of the Michael S. Ansari Africa Center at the Atlantic Council. Professor Shyaka and Dr. Pham will discuss Rwanda’s governance model and the successes and challenges facing Rwanda in terms of democratic governance.
Speakers:
Anastase Shyaka is currently Chief Executive Officer of the Rwanda Governance Board. Previously, Professor Shyaka was Director of the Center for Conflict Management at the National University of Rwanda. Professor Shyaka is a leading expert on governance and political development in Rwanda and the great lakes region, having worked on many studies and publications focused on peace and conflict analysis, democracy, governance, and international relations. His academic accomplishments also include being named a Fulbright Scholar in Residence at George Mason University and Nothern Virginia Community College. Professor Shyaka holds a Ph.D. in Political Science.
J. Peter Pham is Director of the Michael S. Ansari Africa Center at the Atlantic Council. Dr. Pham was previously a tenured Associate Professor of Justice Studies, Political Science, and African Studies at James Madison University, where he also served as Director of the Nelson Institute for International and Public Affairs. A staunch advocate of robust American engagement with Africa, Dr. Pham has served on many of IRI’s election monitoring delegations to Africa, including Liberia (2005), Nigeria (2007, 2011) and Somaliland (2010). He is also a frequent guest lecturer on African affairs at the Foreign Service Institute, the U.S. Army War College, the Joint Special Operations University, the Defense Institute for Security Assistance Management and other U.S. government professional educational institutions.
2. An Indian Perspective on US Strategic Goals in Asia, 6:00pm-7:45pm, Thursday, August 9
Venue: School of International Studies Kenney Auditorium
Much has been talked about the U.S.-India strategic relationship in the last few months in Washington D.C., but mostly from a U.S. perspective. The Obama Administration has begun to pivot US power more toward Asia, recognizing the growing economic importance of Asia to U.S. interests and the heightened threat posed by challenges and instability in the region. While India generally has a sympathetic view of U.S. goals, there are a number of important differences as well as an Indian determination to control its own foreign policy objectives.
Ambassador T.P. Sreenivasan, a former senior Foreign Service officer of India, will lead a discussion of an Indian view of the growing U.S. presence in Asia and what that means for India and its interests. Ambassador Sreenivasan served as the Deputy Chief of Mission in Washington D.C. during 1997-2000, and as India’s Ambassador to several countries including Austria and Slovenia. He also served as India’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations and Governor for India to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna.
3. The Legacy of Iran’s Green Movement: Film Screening and Discussion, 6:00pm-9:00pm, Thursday, August 9
Venue: West End Cinema, 2301 M Street NW
POMED is pleased to host a public screening of the groundbreaking documentary The Green Wave (2010), which examines the 2009 protests in Iran against the fraudulent presidential elections that summer and the subsequent crackdown on pro-democracy activists, members of what became known as the Green Movement. The film – a collage of direct video footage, live interviews, Facebook and Twitter accounts, and animation – won awards in 2011 at the Hamburg Filmfest, IDFA Amsterdam, and the Sundance Film Festival, and it will be released in theaters in the U.S. on August 10th and available on Movies on Demand.
To provide context for the film, Iran experts Alireza Nader, Jamal Abdi, and Suzanne Maloney will provide remarks about the legacy of Iran’s Green Movement, what effect it has had across the region, and opportunities for international actors to constructively and peacefully support democratic change in Iran. Why is the Green Movement important now, three years after mass street protests garnered international attention? How are pro-democracy efforts in Iran viewed in the Arab world, particularly in light of the 2011 Arab uprisings? How did the emergence of Iran’s Green Movement affect U.S. interactions with Iran, and how can the U.S. relationship with the Iranian people be renewed and leveraged in a way that helps Iranians achieve their aspirations for a more representative government and freer country?
6:00-6:30pm
Drink reception, patio of the West End Cinema
6:30-7:15pm
Panel discussion featuring:
Alireza Nader
Senior International Policy Analyst, Rand Corporation
Jamal Abdi
Policy Director, National Iranian American Council
Suzanne Maloney
Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the
Brookings Institution
Moderator: Stephen McInerney
Executive Director, POMED
7:30-9:00pm
Film Screening: The Green Wave
4. Ambassador of the Gambia to the US Discusses Food Crisis, 6:30pm-8:00pm, Thursday August 9
Venue: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Join us on August 9 for a discussion with the Ambassador of The Gambia to the United States Alieu Ngum as he addresses the bilateral U.S.-Gambia relationship in the context of regional economic, political, and social issues.
The Gambia is facing a severe food crisis due to water shortages and crop failure in the West Africa region. Ambassador Ngum’s remarks will open with his government’s response to the crisis and his diplomatic role with bilateral and multilateral policymakers in Washington, D.C. He will also touch upon prospects for economic development in the context of a food crisis, regional security concerns that arise in the short and long term, and civil society’s response to national disasters in The Gambia.
The Ambassador Series offers YPFP General Members the opportunity to have a frank and informal discussion with an important member of the Washington diplomatic community. As a premier organization committed to mutual understanding and dialogue, YPFP seeks to engage Washington’s diplomatic community on a number of issues related to U.S. foreign policy, international cooperation and public diplomacy through this highly successful series.
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