Tag: India
This week’s peace picks
It’s a quieter week on the international front than in the recent past. But some good events nevertheless:
1. A Year Beyond Bin Laden: the New Al Qaeda, Center for National Policy 12:30-1:45 pm May 1 at the Capitol Visitor Center, Room HVC-215
It has been exactly a year since an elite team of Navy SEALs killed al Qaeda’s Osama Bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan. The world has seen other changes as well: the “Arab Spring,” the reverberations of which continue to rock the Middle East and the larger Muslim world.
With the benefit of a year of reflection, how has Bin Laden’s death change al Qaeda? How are these changes likely to play out in the future? What are al Qaeda’s prospects in a post-Arab Spring world, given the ascendance of Islamic political parties? With CNP President Scott Bates moderating, our panel of experts will discuss and debate these questions and more
Mary Habeth
Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)
Will McCants
Center for Naval Analyses
Stephen Tankel
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Moderator:
Scott Bates
President, Center for National Policy
| Mary Habeck is an associate professor in Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). From 2008 to 2009, she was the special advisor for Strategic Planning on the National Security Council staff. She is the author of Knowing the Enemy: Jihadist Ideology and the War on Terror and two forthcoming sequels, Attacking America: How Salafi Jihadis Are Fighting Their 200-Year War with the U.S. and Fighting the Enemy: The U.S. and its War against the Salafi Jihadis. | ||
| William McCants is a Middle East specialist at CNA’s Center for Strategic Studies and adjunct faculty at Johns Hopkins University. He previously managed the Minerva Initiative for the Department of Defense and served as a State Department senior adviser for countering violent extremism. He is the author of Founding Gods, Inventing Nations: Conquest and Culture Myths from Antiquity to Islam. | ||
| Stephen Tankel is an assistant professor at American University, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment in the South Asia program, and an adjunct staff member at the RAND Corporation. Professor Tankel has conducted field research on insurgency, terrorism, and other security issues in Algeria, India, Lebanon, Pakistan, and the Balkans. He is the author of Storming the World Stage: The Story of Lashkar-e-Taiba. |
2. Threats to Defenders of Democracy in Balochistan, NED, 12:30-2 pm May 2
featuring
Malik Siraj Akbar, Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellow
with comments by
Brian Joseph, National Endowment for Democracy
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
12 noon–2:00 p.m.
(Lunch served from 12:00 to 12:30 p.m.)
1025 F Street, N.W., Suite 800, Washington, D.C. 20004
Telephone: 202-378-9675
RSVP (acceptances only) with name and affiliation by Monday, April 30
About the Event
The February 2012 hearing on Balochistan at the U.S House of Representatives brought rare public attention to a longstanding conflict in Pakistan’s mineral-rich southwestern province. While high-level discourse has focused on issues of national sovereignty, security, and secession, the gross violations of human rights in the region have received little international coverage, due in part to government censorship and the threats faced by journalists. Since its accession to Pakistan in 1948, Balochistan has been the scene of periodic uprisings that have resulted in the extrajudicial killing, torture, and enforced disappearance of countless civilians, professionals, and political leaders. Despite judicial and parliamentary initiatives on the part of Pakistan’s civilian government, the conflict remains unresolved.
In his presentation, award-winning journalist Malik Siraj Akbar will offer insights into the origins of the human rights crisis in Balochistan, and an account of the threats faced by defenders of democracy in the region, as well as preliminary recommendations for how best to move forward. Brian Joseph will provide comments.
About the Speakers
Malik Siraj Akbar is a Pakistani journalist who has risked his life covering enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, assaults on journalists, and other human rights violations, particularly in his native Balochistan. The founding editor of the Baloch Hal, Pakistan’s first online local newspaper, he previously served as the Balochistan bureau chief of the Daily Times, Pakistan’s leading English-language newspaper (2006–2010). A recognized regional expert, he is the author of The Redefined Dimensions of the Baloch Nationalist Movement (2011), as well as numerous articles on press freedom, human rights, religious radicalism, and the war on terror in Pakistan.
Brian Joseph is the senior director for Asia and multi-regional programs at the National Endowment for Democracy.
3. Why the US is Not Destined to Decline: A Debate, WWC, 4-5:30 pm May 2
To argue against the widely proclaimed idea of American decline, as this book does, might seem a lonely task. After all, the problems are real and serious. Yet if we take a longer view, much of the discourse about decline appears exaggerated, hyperbolic, and ahistorical. Why? First, because of the deep underlying strengths of the United States. These include not only size, population, demography, and resources, but also the scale and importance of its economy and financial markets, its scientific research and technology, its competitiveness, its military power, and its attractiveness to talented immigrants. Second, there is the weight of history and of American exceptionalism. Throughout its history, the United States has repeatedly faced and eventually overcome daunting challenges and crises. Contrary to a prevailing pessimism, there is nothing inevitable about American decline. Flexibility, adaptability, and the capacity for course correction provide the United States with a unique resilience that has proved invaluable in the past and will do so in the future. Ultimately, the ability to avoid serious decline is less a question of material factors than of policy, leadership, and political will.
Author Robert J. Lieber will discuss his new book, Power and Willpower in the American Future: Why the US is Not Destined to Decline. He will be joined on the panel by Michael Mandelbaum.
If you wish to attend this event, please send RSVP to iss@wilsoncenter.org.
4. The Arab Awakening: Progress or Peril? A Conversation with Amr Hamzawy and Jane Harman
| Date / Time | Thursday, May 3 / 12:00pm – 2:00pm |
|---|---|
| Location |
Woodrow Wilson Center 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
|
| Description | As transitioning Arab countries struggle to consolidate revolutionary change with elections and constitutional reform, it is still unclear whether they will succeed in becoming democracies. Economies are in crisis, Islamists are dominating elections, former regime elements are resurgent, and civil society is under threat. Are revolutions in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya succeeding in delivering dignity and freedom, or are they being hijacked by illiberal forces?Amr Hamzawy, a leading voice of the Egyptian revolution who has become one of his country’s most active parliamentarians, and Wilson Center President Jane Harman will debate where Egypt and other transitioning Arab countries are headed.The Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council and the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center invite you to participate in this inaugural event in a series of debates on the future of the transitioning Arab countries. |
Friday, May 4th
9:45 AM – 10:00 AM
Coffee and Registration
10:00 AM – 12:00 PM
Panel Discussion and Q&A
Senate Dirksen Office Building
Room 106
Panelists: Brahma Chellaney
Panelists : Centre for Policy Research
Panelists: Michael J. Green
Panelists : Center for Strategic and International Studies
Panelists : Lodi G. Gyari
Panelists : Special Envoy of His Holiness the Dalai Lama
Panelists : Ambassador Lalit Mansingh
Panelists : Former Indian Foreign Secretary
Moderator: Ellen Bork
Moderator: Foreign Policy Initiative
To RSVP, click here.
As the Obama administration pursues its “Asia pivot,” Tibet is taking on increased strategic significance due to its importance as a source of water and minerals, the militarization of the Tibetan plateau and the Sino-Indian border, Chinese influence in Nepal, and Beijing’s insistence on deference to its control of Tibet as a “core interest.” The series of self-immolations by Tibetans over the past year demonstrates that 60 years of Communist Chinese occupation has not succeeded in destroying Tibetans’ identity and desire for freedom. This still unfolding unrest and the democratization of the Tibetan government-in-exile make imperative a review of international policies.
Moving forward, what role will Tibet play in the region’s peace and security? Do the U.S. and India have the right policies in place for Tibet? What policies is China pursuing in response to recent events and in anticipation of the future? What are the prospects for achieving the autonomy the Dalai Lama seeks? Can Tibetan Buddhism and democracy provide a bridge between Tibetans and Chinese?
Discussing these vital questions will be Brahma Chellaney of the Centre for Policy Research; Michael J. Green of the Center for Strategic and International Studies; Lodi G. Gyari, special envoy of His Holiness the Dalai Lama; and Ambassador Lalit Mansingh, former Indian Foreign Secretary. FPI Director of Democracy and Human Rights Ellen Bork will moderate the discussion.
Speaker Biographies
Brahma Chellaney is a professor of strategic studies at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi, a fellow of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, a trustee of the National Book Trust, and an affiliate with the International Centre for the Study of Radicalization at King’s College London. He has served as a member of the Policy Advisory Group headed by the Foreign Minister of India. Before that, Dr. Chellaney was an adviser to India’s National Security Council until January 2000, serving as convener of the External Security Group of the National Security Advisory Board. A specialist on international security and arms control issues, Dr. Chellaney has held appointments at Harvard University, the Brookings Institution, the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, and the Australian National University. He is the author of six books, including Asian Juggernaut: The Rise of China, India and Japan and his latest book Water: Asia’s New Battleground. Dr. Chellaney has published research papers in publications such as International Security, Orbis, Survival, Washington Quarterly, Security Studies, and Terrorism. He regularly contributes opinion articles to the International Herald Tribune, The Wall Street Journal, the Japan Times, the Asian Age, the Hindustan Times, and the Times of India. In 1985, Dr. Chellaney won a Citation for Excellence from the Overseas Press Club in New York. He holds a B.A. from Hindu College and an M.A. from the Delhi School of Economics. Dr. Chellaney also has a Ph.D. in international arms control.
Michael J. Green is a senior adviser and holds the Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also an associate professor of international relations at Georgetown University. He previously served as special assistant to the President for national security affairs and senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council (NSC) from January 2004 to December 2005, after joining the NSC in April 2001 as director of Asian affairs. Dr. Green speaks fluent Japanese and spent over five years in Japan working as a staff member of the National Diet, as a journalist for Japanese and American newspapers, and as a consultant for U.S. business. He has also been on the faculty of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, a staff member at the Institute for Defense Analyses, and a senior adviser to the Office of Asia-Pacific Affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He did graduate work at Tokyo University as a Fulbright fellow and at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology as a research associate of the MIT-Japan Program. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and the Aspen Strategy Group. He is also vice chair of the congressionally mandated Japan-U.S. Friendship Commission and serves on the advisory boards of the Center for a New American Security and Australian American Leadership Dialogue as well as the editorial board of The Washington Quarterly. Dr. Green earned his undergraduate degree in history from Kenyon College and his M.A. and Ph.D. from SAIS.
Lodi G. Gyari is the special envoy of His Holiness the Dalai Lama and the lead person designated to negotiate with the government of the People’s Republic of China. Mr. Gyari is also the executive chairman of the board of the International Campaign for Tibet, an independent Washington based human rights advocacy group. Born in Nyarong, Eastern Tibet, Mr. Gyari and his family fled to India in 1959. Realizing that Tibetans need to publicize their struggle to the world, he became an editor for the Tibetan Freedom Press and founded the Tibetan Review, the first English language journal published by Tibetans in-exile. Mr. Gyari was one of the founding members of the Tibetan Youth Congress and served as president of the Congress in 1975. He was elected to the Assembly of Tibetan People’s Deputies, the Tibetan Parliament-in-Exile, and subsequently became its chairman. He then served as deputy cabinet minister with responsibilities for the Council for Religious Affairs and the Department of Health. In 1988, he became senior cabinet minister for the Department of Information and International Relations.
Ambassador Lalit Mansingh has served as India’s foreign secretary, ambassador to the United States, and high commissioner to the United Kingdom. He has also been ambassador in the United Arab Emirates and high commissioner in Nigeria with concurrent accreditation to Benin, Chad, and the Cameroons. Ambassador Mansingh joined the Indian Foreign Service in 1963. After his initial posting in Geneva, he went on to serve as deputy chief of mission in the Indian Embassies in Kabul, Brussels, and Washington. At headquarters in Delhi, Ambassador Mansingh worked in a variety of assignments: as joint secretary in the Ministry of Finance, director general of the Indian Council for Cultural Relations, dean of the Foreign Service Institute, and secretary (West) in the Ministry of External Affairs. Before joining the Foreign Service, he worked as a research fellow in American studies at the School of International Studies in Delhi and as a lecturer in the Post-Graduate Department of Political Science at Utkal University, Bhubaneswar, Orissa. His current engagements include prof emeritus at the Foreign Service Institute of India and member of the governing body or executive committee of institutions in New Delhi including the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, Development Alternatives, and the Indian Council for Sustainable Development. He is chairman of the Federation of Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry – India U.S. Policy Group and president of the World Cultural Forum (India). Additionally, he is on the International Advisory Boards of APCO Worldwide in Washington and the Bonita International Trust in London. Ambassador Mansingh is currently active in a number of international initiatives for conflict resolution, regional security, and sustainable development including being a part of a Track II dialogue between India and Pakistan focusing on confidence-building measures between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Ambassador Mansingh holds a master’s degree in political science. He was recently conferred the Doctorate of Laws, Honoris Causa, by the University of North Orissa.
Ellen Bork is the director of Democracy and Human Rights at the Foreign Policy Initiative (FPI). She came to FPI from Freedom House where she worked on projects assisting activists and dissidents around the world. She previously served as deputy director of the Project for the New American Century, a foreign policy think tank, an adviser to the Chairman of the Hong Kong Democratic Party, as the professional staff member for Asia and the Pacific at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and at the Bureau of Latin American Affairs at the U.S. Department of State. Ms. Bork has been published in publications, including The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, and The Weekly Standard. She has participated in election observation missions to Afghanistan, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Ukraine and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a member of the board of the International Campaign for Tibet. Ms. Bork graduated from Yale University and the Georgetown University Law Center and is a member of the District of Columbia bar.
Peace picks next week
Too much this week, and too many things at the same time on the same days, but here are my best bets:
1. The Arab Spring, a Year On: How’s America Faring? WWC, 9:30-11 am April 23
Nathan Brown
Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, George Washington University and Former Fellow, Woodrow Wilson Center
Ellen Laipson
President and CEO, Stimson Center
Michael Singh
Managing Director, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Moderator
Aaron David Miller
Distinguished Scholar, Woodrow Wilson Center
Political changes in the Arab world have created a new landscape for the United States. Join us as four experts on the region and its politics examine the impact of these changes on hopes for democratization and Arab-Israeli peace, as well as the future of American influence and interests.
Last fall, the Pakistan government announced its intention to grant Most Favored Nation (MFN) status to India, replicating a decision made earlier in New Delhi and potentially laying the groundwork for greatly expanded trade between the two South Asian neighbors. While fundamental disagreements in the relationship remain unresolved, Islamabad’s MFN decision suggests that it is prepared to deepen trade ties even while progress on core political and security issues continues to lag. Optimists assert that increased trade can build constituencies in both countries for more cooperative bilateral relations between the two long-time rivals.
Recognizing the potential significance of trade in the Pakistan-India relationship, the Woodrow Wilson Center will host a one-day conference on April 23, 2012, that focuses on MFN as an important step toward expanding Pakistan-India commercial linkages. What further steps on both sides need to be taken to establish a fully operational MFN regime? What are the economic and businesses cases for and against expanding bilateral trade? What are the primary domestic obstacles in each country to increased Pakistan-India trade? What are the socio-economic arguments for enhanced bilateral trade ties, and who will most benefit?
RSVPs are required. Please RSVP by sending an email to asia@wilsoncenter.org
CONFERENCE AGENDA
9:45 Registration and coffee
10:00 Welcoming Remarks
Robert M. Hathaway, director, Asia Program, Woodrow Wilson Center
Munawar Z. Noorani, chairman, Fellowship Fund for Pakistan
10:15 Panel I: Moving forward on MFN
Ijaz Nabi, visiting professor, Lahore University of Management Sciences, and Pakistan country director, International Growth Center
A view from Pakistan
Arvind Virmani, executive director, International Monetary Fund, and affiliate professor and distinguished senior fellow, George Mason University
Perspectives from India
Ishrat Hussain, dean and director, Institute of Business Administration (Karachi)
Dissenting views
Chair: Robert M. Hathaway, director, Asia Program, Woodrow Wilson Center
12:30 Luncheon
1:00 Luncheon keynote address
Zafar Mahmood, commerce secretary, government of Pakistan
Chair: William B. Milam, senior scholar, Woodrow Wilson Center
2:00 Panel II: Broadening the debate
Amin Hashwani, founder, Pakistan-India CEOs Business Forum
Social issues, civil society, and security
Nisha Taneja, professor, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)
Non-tariff barriers, infrastructure deficiencies, and high transaction costs
Kalpana Kochhar, chief economist for South Asia, World Bank
Regional implications
Chair: Michael Kugelman, South Asia associate, Woodrow Wilson Center
4:15 Adjournment
RSVPs are required. Please RSVP by sending an email to asia@wilsoncenter.org
This conference has been organized by the Wilson Center’s Asia Program and Program on America and the Global Economy, along with the Fellowship Fund for Pakistan.
This conference has been made possible through the generosity of the Fellowship Fund for Pakistan.
the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution
Present:The Implications of Democracy and Dynasty:
The Foreign Policy Futures of the Two Koreas
April 24, 2012
2pm – 3:30pm
Kenney Auditorium
1740 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036
Featuring:
Dr. Sang Yoon Ma
History and Public Policy Scholar, Woodrow Wilson International Center
Associate Professor, School of International Studies at the Catholic University of Korea
Dr. Alexandre Mansourov
Visiting Scholar, US-Korea Institute at SAIS
With Introduction by:
Dr. Richard C. Bush
Director and Senior Fellow
Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, The Brookings Institution
Moderated by:
Dr. Jae H. Ku
Director, US-Korea Institute at SAIS
On April 11, 2012, South Korea’s ruling conservative party scored an unexpected victory in the 2012 National Assembly elections while a series of political events in North Korea worked to solidify the succession of Kim Jong Un. Please join Dr. Sang Yoon Ma and Dr. Alexandre Mansourov in discussing the results of these events and their policy implications for US-ROK relations, and North Korea’s foreign policy strategies.
5. A Conversation with Turkey’s Kurdish Leadership, Brookings, 3-4:30 pm April 24
When
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
3:00 PM to 4:30 PM
Where
Saul/Zilkha Rooms
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC
Map
Participants
Introduction and Moderator
Ömer Taşpınar
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Featured Speakers
Selahattin Demirtaş
Co-Chairman
Peace and Democracy Party (BDP)
Ahmet Türk
Member of Turkish Parliament
Co-chair of the Democratic Society Congress (DTK)
6. (Re)Building an Effective Central Government in Afghanistan and Iraq, RTI International, 12 noon April 25
When: Wednesday, April 25, 2012, 12:00 p.m. – 2:00 p.m.
Where: RTI International, 701 13th Street, NW, Suite 750, Washington, D.C.
Please join the SID-Washington Governance, Corruption & Rule of Law Workgroup for a panel discussion examining state-building in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The sustainability of governance reforms in Afghanistan and Iraq is a key concern for both the US and its partners, and for citizens of those countries. What has been learned about what works to build, or rebuild, effective government? What challenges remain to be addressed? SID-Washington’s Governance, Corruption, and Rule of Law Workgroup will host a discussion with Larry Cooley, President, Management Systems International, to explore answers to these questions.
Speakers:
Larry Cooley, President, Management Systems International (MSI)
Workgroup Co-Chairs
Derick Brinkerhoff, Distinguished Fellow, International Public Management, RTI International
Tomas Bridle, Technical Area Manager, Responsive Government Institutions, Economic and Democratic Governance, DAI
Please bring your lunch to enjoy during the event.
This is called retrenchment
We all anticipated this State of the Union speech would not focus on international issues, but here is my short list of more important things not mentioned or glossed over:
- West Bank settlements (or Palestinians)
- North Korea
- Euro crisis
- Africa or Latin America (not even Cuba),
- Bahrain or Saudi Arabia, virtually no Egypt, Tunisia or Yemen
- China (except as an unfair competitor)
- Turkey, Mexico, Brazil, India or even Russia (except as an emerging market)
- Pakistan (except as an Al Qaeda haven)
- Strait of Hormuz
That’s a pretty spectacular list, even without noting the absence of NATO, Japan, allies, Europe, the UN…
A few notable items that were mentioned:
- Strong on regime change in Syria (putting Assad in the same sentence with Qaddafi could have implications) and on exporting democracy and free markets in general
- Positive about peaceful resolution of the dispute with Iran over nuclear weapons, while keeping all options on the table
- Trade agreements with South Korea, Panama and Colombia
- Burma as the hope of the Pacific!
Of course the President also mentioned withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, security cooperation with Israel, blows delivered against Al Qaeda, and the troops (no mention of civilians serving abroad this time around I’m afraid).
If this is a prelude to the campaign, as rightly it should be, it presages an ever more economically focused foreign policy, with security issues narrowed to a few top priorities and little focus on diplomacy except on a few specific issues. This is a vision for restoring American economic strength at home, not increasing–or perhaps even maintaining–its commitments abroad. This is called retrenchment.
PS: I should have mentioned that Richard Haas calls it “restoration.” That’s a more positive word, but the substance is the same.
OK Santa Claus, here’s what I want
I’m hoping it’s true Yemen’s President Saleh is coming to the U.S. As that eagle-eyed young journalist Adam Serwer tweeted: “not to prosecute him…would be, u know, awkward.” That set me thinking about other good fortune that might come our way this Christmas eve:
1. Syria’s president Bashar al Assad decides he really wants to practice opthamology in London.
2. North Korea’s “supreme commander” Kim Jong Un wants to see professional American basketball so much he decides to give up the nuclear nonsense and buy an NBA team for Pyongyang instead. Lots more prestige and very lucrative.
3. Iran follows suit, abandoning its pan-Islamist pretensions, separating mosque and state and restoring close relations with Israel. It also buys an NBA team for Tehran.
4. Iraq’s Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki declares peace on earth and good will towards Sunnis and Kurds, steps down from power and invites Iraqiyya to name a replacement.
5. The new Islamist-run governments in Tunisia, Egypt (and yes, eventually) Libya follow the Iranian example, which convinces them separation of mosque and state are the best protection for religious freedom and will encourage religious devotion, as it seems to do in the U.S.
6. The Saudis rise to the occasion and do likewise, making the king a constitutional monarch to boot.
7. Bahrain does the same. Yemen gets not only a democratic government but lots of water.
8. Without implacable enemies, Prime Minister Netanyahu reaches a quick agreement with the Palestinians, whose state is admitted to the UN with no opposition.
9. The Taliban see that their Islamist counterparts in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya are on to a good thing and reach a power sharing agreement with the Northern Alliance, jettisoning President Karzai and precipitating an early American withdrawal.
10. Pakistan follows up American withdrawal and the new government in Kabul by reaching a broad-ranging agreement with India, including self-determination for Kashmir.
11. Al Qaeda opens a resort on the Somali coast called “The Caliphate.”
12. I retire to observe the peaceful competition between China and the United States, who compete in ping pong but do everything else collaboratively.
If Santa Claus really does exist, children, he’ll bring me those things for the 12 days of Christmas. If he doesn’t, then…
What threatens the United States?
The Council on Foreign Relations published its Preventive Priorities Survey for 2012 last week. What does it tell us about the threats the United States faces in this second decade of the 21st century?
Looking at the ten Tier 1 contingencies “that directly threaten the U.S. homeland, are likely to trigger U.S. military involvement because of treaty commitments, or threaten the supplies of critical U.S. strategic resources,” only three are defined as military threats:
- a major military incident with China involving U.S. or allied forces
- an Iranian nuclear crisis (e.g., surprise advances in nuclear weapons/delivery capability, Israeli response)
- a U.S.-Pakistan military confrontation, triggered by a terror attack or U.S. counterterror operations
Two others might also involve a military threat, though the first is more likely from a terrorist source:
- a mass casualty attack on the U.S. homeland or on a treaty ally
- a severe North Korean crisis (e.g., armed provocations, internal political instability, advances in nuclear weapons/ICBM capability)
The remaining five involve mainly non-military contingencies:
- a highly disruptive cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure (e.g., telecommunications, electrical power, gas and oil, water supply, banking and finance, transportation, and emergency services)
- a significant increase in drug trafficking violence in Mexico that spills over into the United States
- severe internal instability in Pakistan, triggered by a civil-military crisis or terror attacks
- political instability in Saudi Arabia that endangers global oil supplies
- intensification of the European sovereign debt crisis that leads to the collapse of the euro, triggering a double-dip U.S. recession and further limiting budgetary resources
Five of the Tier 2 contingencies “that affect countries of strategic importance to the United States but that do not involve a mutual-defense treaty commitment” are also at least partly military in character, though they don’t necessarily involve U.S. forces:
- a severe Indo-Pak crisis that carries risk of military escalation, triggered by major terror attack
- rising tension/naval incident in the eastern Mediterranean Sea between Turkey and Israel
- a major erosion of security and governance gains in Afghanistan with intensification of insurgency or terror attacks
- a South China Sea armed confrontation over competing territorial claims
- a mass casualty attack on Israel
But Tier 2 also involves predominantly non-military threats to U.S. interests, albeit with potential for military consequences:
- political instability in Egypt with wider regional implications
- an outbreak of widespread civil violence in Syria, with potential outside intervention
- an outbreak of widespread civil violence in Yemen
- rising sectarian tensions and renewed violence in Iraq
- growing instability in Bahrain that spurs further Saudi and/or Iranian military action
Likewise Tier 3 contingencies “that could have severe/widespread humanitarian consequences but in countries of limited strategic importance to the United States” include military threats to U.S. interests:
- military conflict between Sudan and South Sudan
- increased conflict in Somalia, with continued outside intervention
- renewed military conflict between Russia and Georgia
- an outbreak of military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, possibly over Nagorno Karabakh
And some non-military threats:
- heightened political instability and sectarian violence in Nigeria
- political instability in Venezuela surrounding the October 2012 elections or post-Chavez succession
- political instability in Kenya surrounding the August 2012 elections
- an intensification of political instability and violence in Libya
- violent election-related instability in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
- political instability/resurgent ethnic violence in Kyrgyzstan
I don’t mean to suggest in any way that the military is irrelevant to these “non-military” threats. But it is not the only tool needed to meet these contingencies, or even to meet the military ones. And if you begin thinking about preventive action, which is what the CFR unit that publishes this material does, there are clearly major non-military dimensions to what is needed to meet even the threats that take primarily military form.
And for those who read this blog because it publishes sometimes on the Balkans, please note: the region are nowhere to be seen on this list of 30 priorities for the United States.
Getting ready for post-Assad Syria
While my enthusiasm for nonviolent revolution in Syria has not waned, some of the best pieces of the past week have focused on the risks involved.
International Crisis Group (ICG) weighed in with an analysis of where things might go wrong:
- the fate of the Alawite community;
- the connection between Syria and Lebanon;
- the nature and implications of heightened international
involvement;- the long-term impact of the protest movement’s growing
militarisation; and- the legacy of creeping social, economic and institutional
decay.
Patrick Seale offered a more generic warning of civil war and a far-fetched (or is it imaginative?) proposal for BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) mediation to avoid it (with thanks to Carne Ross for tweeting it).
Meanwhile, back at the Arab League they imposed in principle serious sanctions on Syria, including a ban on transactions with its central bank as well as travel by regime big shots and a halt to Arab development projects in Syria. As usual, some of the important stuff is not mentioned. Commercial air transportation with Syria will continue, assets in the Gulf have not been frozen, and neighbors Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan have not committed to complying with the sanctions, which will probably be implemented slowly and incompletely. Even if all were willing, the regime would find ways of taking advantage of sanctions to enrich its least savory characters.
One other thing is also certain: the longer it takes to get rid of Assad, the more difficult the transition to a democratic regime will be. No one can pretend that the Syrian National Council (SNC) is yet ready to govern, even if Libya and France have recognized it (the latter as a partner for dialogue and not a government). It needs to hasten its preparations, which so far seem rudimentary. The SNC (and other elements of the opposition?) will reportedly meet in Cairo within a week to elaborate its vision and plans for the transition. The Syrians could do worse than take that ICG list of issues and work on serious plans to resolve them.
PS: The UN Human Rights Commission “Report of the independent international commission of inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic,” published this morning, makes grim reading. Here are a couple of randomly chosen paragraphs:
48. Several defectors witnessed the killing of their comrades who refused to execute orders to fire at civilians. A number of conscripts were allegedly killed by security forces on 25 April in Dar’a during a large-scale military operation. The soldiers in the first row were given orders to aim directly at residential areas, but chose to fire in the air to avoid civilian casualties. Security forces posted behind shot them for refusing orders, thus killing dozens of conscripts.
49. Civilians bore the brunt of the violence as cities were blockaded and curfews imposed. The commission heard many testimonies describing how those who ventured outside their homes were shot by snipers. Many of the reported cases occurred in Dar’a, Jisr Al Shughour and Homs. A lawyer told how security forces took positions in old Dar’a during the operation in April. Snipers were deployed on the hospital rooftop and other buildings. “They targeted anyone who moved”, he said. Two of his cousins were killed on the street by snipers.
