Tag: India
Stevenson’s army, April 15
– India’s population is now greater than China’s, but there’s more to the story.
– Arab nations are warming to Syria.
– US intelligence saw 4 more Chinese balloons
– Reports also say Taiwan is vulnerable
-China promises no arms to either side in Ukraine.
-Discord leaker: Fred Kaplan wonders about his access.
– Read the affadavit revealing probable cause.
– Tom Friedman doesn’t want anti-China feeling to go too far.
– Max Hastings reminds that Churchill wanted to keep fighting Moscow.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Stevenson’s army, March 23
I am back from a week in Doha when I wasn’t posting, and Charlie is back from a few days away:
Back at my desktop and partway through the accumulated newspapers, here are some links.
– Stimson has a bunch of reports. I especially liked the “Chimera of Technological Superiority” paper.
– Lots of Iraq reflections [today is the 20th anniversary of the start of the US war]. Reporter John Walcott was right. As was Jim Fallows.
– A Marine calls for a more family friendly military personnel system
– SAIS prof Ed Joseph sees a Kosovo deal.
– US News said US intell helped India against China.
– Fred Kaplan assesses the Xi-Putin summit. WaPo notes the absence of a pipeline deal.
– Two views on US aid to Ukraine: surprising success or much too slow.
– NYT analyzes DeSantis foreign policy.
– Max Boot sees return to 1930s GOP foreign policy.
– RollCall notes Biden’s high success rate with Congress.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Stevenson’s army, March 3
– WSJ says Germany isn’t boosting defense as promised.
– Australian think tank says China leads US is key technologies. WSJ summary.
– WSJ sees US-EU clash over Iranian nuclear programs.
– Politico’s NatSec Daily says US won’t criticize India
– FP tells how Ukraine learned to fight
– WOTR has good piece on acquisition reform.
– Politico reports on administration WMD strategy.
Off topic but significant: it’s the phones.
And for fun, look at these maps.
Stevenson’s army, February 3
– US agreement with Philippines is a big deal.
– Meanwhile, NYT says China is gaining in Indonesia.
– US intelligence doubts Ukraine gain in Crimea.
– Russia may expand attacks.
– India boosts defense spending 13%.
– Senators want to block F16s to Turkey.
– In FP, Rand analysts discuss lessons from Ukraine.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Stevenson’s army, February 1
– Air Force opposes Chinese-owned corn mill
– Ukraine hasn’t boosted US defense firms.
– But CSIS sees problems with US industrial base.
– CSIS also worries about US weapons inventories.
– AP says more weapons going to Korea.
– Reuters says longer-range rockets going to Ukraine.
– Pew sees bigger partisan divide on support to Ukraine.
– US says Russia is violating New Start treaty. In FT, Rose Gottemoeller says this could be fixed.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Empty annexations won’t make an empire
I’ve been out of commission for ten days or so. Peacefare was also down for a few days. But both of us are back now and trying to catch up.
The big news is clear: Russia is losing the war in Ukraine. Kyiv has forced Moscow’s retreat both in the northeast and to a lesser extent in the south. Russia’s hold on remaining occupied territory is precarious, though stronger in the south than in the the northeast. The Wagner group, a supposedly private security force reporting directly to the Kremlin, has proven much more reliable there than the regular Russian army and even than the Donbas proxies elsewhere.
Doubling down
Putin’s reaction is to double down. He has ordered a partial mobilization that has driven tens of thousands of Russians out of their country. He has also signed a piece of paper claiming to annex four Ukrainian provinces, though Russian forces control only a portion of them. The annexation is nominally a response to fake referenda conducted among the way fewer than 50% of the population of those provinces actually under Russian control. Russian troops carried the ballot boxes door to door and asked people to vote at gunpoint. Moscow claims to have annexed largely empty territory it is incapable of repopulating.
Ukraine has doubled down as well. Its army continues to perform far beyond expectations. Newly armed and amply inspired, it is taking territory at a fast pace. Kyiv has also submitted an application for NATO membership. That is unlikely to be approved before Russia is driven completely from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. Even then there will be opposition inside the Alliance. But it signals the realignment that Putin has incentivized. It would be hard to convince any Ukrainian loyal to Ukraine that NATO membership is not in Ukraine’s interest. Even if Ukraine never accedes, it will be aligned with NATO in the future.
Shrinking war aims
Despite doubling down, Moscow has shrunk its war aims. Putin has abandoned for now his original objective, the conquest of Kyiv and the absorption of all of Ukraine into an extended Russian empire. He won’t be able to absorb all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson either:
The parts of Luhansk and Donetsk that were under Moscow’s control from 2014 until this year did not fare well under Russian rule. Any territory that remains under Russian control when a ceasefire some day takes effect will be depopulated and depressed. Even if Putin wins, those whom he governs will lose.
More modest but sustainable ambition is needed
Putin conceives of himself as engaged in a global struggle against a perverse, exploitative, and violent West. He is losing that struggle not only on the battlefield in Ukraine but also throughout Europe and in the democratic Far East. Even India and China are distancing themselves. His confidence in the 1000-year Russian state is grossly overwrought. Russia is a second-rate petro power with nuclear weapons he knows it can’t use without precipitating a catastrophic response. It is time for Russians to wake up and do what they know needs doing: get rid of him and his coterie and return Russia to a more modest but sustainable ambition.
