Tag: Intelligence
Disgrace everywhere you look
Less than two weeks in, the Trump Administration is proving more malicious, less competent, and more destructive than we imagined. The President can’t even pretend to mourn the victims of a plane crash. He needed to parade his racism in front of the cameras as well by blaming the crash on diversity. It turns out the Federal Aviation Administration initiated its diversity program during his own first term. His tariffs on Mexico and Canada will jack up prices and deflate the stock market by Monday.
The firing of dozens of experience prosecutors will hamper the Justice Department for years. The consequent lawsuits will cost more than the money saved by reducing the payroll. And the incompetents he’ll hire as replacements will be mostly white sycophantic males with little experience and no integrity.
The disgrace in the Senate
Some of the worst of Trump’s minions have been testifying this week in the Senate. RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, and Kash Patel lied and insulted their ways through hours of painful fraud and bluster. The results were embarrassing.
RFK Jr. demonstrated no knowledge and no aptitude for Health and Human Services Secretary. Gabbard couldn’t call Edward Snowden a traitor because she had defended his theft and publication of top secret documents. I wouldn’t call him a traitor either until a court tries and convicts him. But she could have just that: he should come home for trial. Kash Patel just denied saying things he has said. The FBI will be Trump’s personal police force by the time he is through with it.
The disgrace at the borders
Trump is having a hard time on immigration. Not many people are crowding the border, because Biden already fixed that. Trump is flying a few immigrants to their home countries at high cost, without demonstrating they are criminals. And to get some more attention he promises to store 30,000 of them at Guantanamo. The US Government found it difficult to imprison 800 there, most of whom turned out not to be terrorists. The GTMO military commission has convicted only eight. The yearly cost of incarceration was $10 million per detainee.
Meanwhile, the Administration has canceled permission for fully cleared refugees from Afghanistan and other war zones to enter the US. It continues to lump asylum seekers with criminals. And it has canceled temporary protected status for hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans.
The disgrace in the budget
Trump initially stopped all Federal grants and contracts, including for major programs like Medicaid and for foreign assistance. That it turned out upset Republicans, as a lot of the money goes to red states:
So now they have lifted the general stop order but are slow walking specific programs through approval. The result is enormous confusion inside the government and the organizations that receive money from it. Everyone is working feverishly to get exceptions. That is a tremendous waste of resources.
Trump tried once before to stop foreign assistance, to Ukraine in 2019. The House of Representatives impeached him for that. Congress appropriates money. It is the President’s responsibility to execute what the Congress says it is for. He has no power to divert the money without at least informing Congress, which of course Trump has not done.
What he wants to do with the money is worse than his effort to slow its disbursement. He wants to extend the tax cuts for the rich approved in 2017. He also wants to pay for prestige projects his billionaire friends have been advocating. Those include sending people to Mars and buying Greenland. No doubt they will also convince him to provide cheap energy for the Artificial Intelligence projects.
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Defending against Trump’s worst moves
I’ve already said what could go wrong in 2025. I’m not inclined to change any of that. If anything, the past two weeks has confirmed much of what I said on January 3. Trump has doubled down on his stupid proposals for Greenland, Panama (where China does not operate the Canal), and Canada. That is smokescreen. He is preparing to meet Presidents Putin and Xi. Those meetings have often led to unwarranted concessions on Trump’s part. Despite rumors of Trump’s dissatisfaction with Musk and MAGA’s attacks on him, Elon remains strong. He has also moved rightwards, to open racist and sexist tropes as well as support for fascists in Europe.
We are now a mere week from Inauguration Day. The issue now is how to defend against Trump’s worst moves.
Defeat these nominees
Presidents have more leeway on foreign than most areas of domestic policy. Unless it involves foreign aid, the President can do just about anything he wants abroad. This applies in particular to the US military and national security issues in general. It is crucial that the Secretary of Defense be someone trustworthy, reliable, and honest. Trump’s nominee, Pete Hegseth, is none of those things. Republicans willing to think about the risks should also be willing to vote against him.
The same applies to Tulsi Gabbard, the nominee for Director of National Intelligence. While that job is not the most important in the intel community, she is a disaster waiting to happen. She has been a shill for Syrian President Assad and Russian President Putin. As a candidate for an intel position, she would not get even a low-level a security clearance. She certainly shouldn’t get a top level one for the government’s main coordinator of 17 intel agencies.
One domestic policy issue on which a President can have his way is prosecutions. The nominee for FBI Director, Kash Patel, has spend the last four years listing Trump opponents he wants prosecuted. He has also fantasized about Trump’s revenge in, of all things, a children’s book. He should be blocked from confirmation by any Republican Senator who believes in the rule of law.
Other Trump nominees are dangerous. Pam Bondi as Attorney General and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Health and Human Services are both incompetent and deluded. But both jobs are pretty well insulated by law and regulation from the worst of what they want to do. They will try to change both the laws and the regulations. It will be up to Congress and the courts to restrain their worst instincts.
Hope Rubio and Waltz prevail
I don’t like any of Trump’s nominees, but some are better than those above. Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor and Marco Rubio as Secretary of State are within the spectrum of respectable. Both have been strong supporters of Israel in Gaza and Lebanon. Both have said they want to end the Ukraine war soon. Those wouldn’t be my positions, but they are not outlandish.
The problem is that these more respectable and knowledgeable names are not alone. Trump has also named Ric Grenell to handle Ukraine. Grenell is a failed Trump-appointed ambassador in Germany, special envoy for the Balkans, and Acting Director of National Intelligence. Trump has nominated Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel and Steve Witkoff as special envoy for the Middle East. Huckabee is an evangelical Christian and supporter of Netanyahu’s Greater Israel ambitions. Witkoff’s views on Israel don’t seem to be know. He is a New York lawyer and real estate tycoon.
I suppose in other circumstances this variety of nominees would garner praise. But there is a real risk that Waltz and Rubio are fig leaves intended to hide the junk. Grenell tried to partition Kosovo during the first Trump Administration. He will no doubt try that with Ukraine as well, if he gets a chance. None of the nominees seem prepared to rein in Israel. But Huckabee and Witkoff would be more likely than Rubio and Waltz to give Netanyahu a blank check. The portfolios of Rubio and Waltz will include relations with the Arab Gulf.
The problem from hell
Trump’s worst instincts have manifested on immigration. He has promised mass deportation. There can be no doubt that his nominees want to do it. Stephen Miller as White House deputy chief of policy and Tom Homan as border czar as have impeccable anti-immigration credentials. No one would accuse them of insincerity on the issue. But Homan has been trying to lower expectations. This is an area where law and regulation do constrain the new administration.
In the meanwhile, an intramural verbal spat has erupted between longtime MAGAtes like Steve Bannon and newcomers, especially Elon Musk. Musk and other tech giants want to keep or even increase H1B visas they use to import cheap foreign labor. Trump does likewise for his hotels and resorts. Musk and company will win this one, but the result will be an even more draconian crackdown on asylum-seekers. The MAGAtes regard them as “illegal” immigrants, though entering the US to seek asylum is legal.
The irony is that the US needs immigrants. Not only is the current labor market tight. We are not reproducing enough to grow the population at the rate needed to fund Social Security and other programs. Colleges are closing and we soon won’t have enough graduates. So while Republicans quarrel over H1Bs, the funding and personnel shortfalls get worse.
Immigration is the problem from hell because there is no political formula for doing what is needed. We need reform that will provide the person power while cracking down on real illegality.
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Trump’s cabinet of horrors
What wasn’t clear yesterday is today. Donald Trump’s national security and foreign policy appointments will be more like his extremist immigration nominees than like yesterday’s headliners. Marco Rubio at State and Michael Waltz as National Security Advisor are the only arguably sane appointments. They are the adults in the room, which means they won’t last. The others are right-wing crackpots. They’ll be around for four years.
The intel community
Intelligence gets the worst of it. The highly partisan John Ratcliffe as CIA director was a preview, not an anomaly. Tulsi Gabbard will become Director of National Intelligence, overseeing the (is it still 17?) intelligence agencies. Once a Democratic member of Congress, she is now a born again Trump Republican and Putin apologist. She is flaky and capricious.
It is difficult to picture either of these people telling Trump something he doesn’t want to hear. Which is what intel chiefs often need to do.
Diplomacy
In addition to Rubio, diplomacy gets Elise Stefanik as UN ambassador. A member of Congress from New York State, she is an avowed opponent of the UN. She will strongly oppose continued assistance to Palestinians.
Evangelical pro-Israel enthusiast Mike Huckabee will serve as ambassador in Jerusalem. A former Governor of Arkansas, he will provide strong support to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. He will also encourage those in Netanyahu’s coalition who want to annex the West Bank and Gaza.
Homeland Security
Kristi Noem, Governor of North Dakota who proudly shot a dog and a goat she “hated,” will run this mega-department. You can read about some of her other “batshit” moments here. She is a Trump enthusiast of course.
Defense
Pete Hegseth, a National Guard major, gets the Defense Department. The blatantly unqualified Fox News talking head opposes women and LGBTQ people in the military. He sports Christian tattoos, including “Deus vult” (God wills it). That is pretty much the equivalent of “insha’allah,” an expression Arabs use many times per day. But unlike the Arabic phrase, which everyone uses, the Latin one is used mainly by right-wing extremists, including neo-Nazis. Trump has charged Hegseth with getting rid of any generals who have promoted diversity, equity and inclusion.
SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson says Trump has declared war on the Pentagon.
Attorney General
Republican Congress Member Matt Gaetz will head the Department of Justice. The list of ethics charges against him is long. He will not just kill any cases the Justice Department is pursuing against Trump. He will also protect other Trumpkins while pursuing charges against Democrats.
What is this?
This is a cabinet of horrors. Its distinguishing characteristics are unquestioning loyalty to Donald Trump, right-wing devotion, and profound lack of experience and competence. What could go wrong?
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Stevenson’s army, February 2
– David Ignatius and Tom Friedman each describe US hopes and plans for the Middle East
– Biden imposed sanctions on some West Bank settlers
– NYT says Netanyahu faces a dilemma
-WSJ sees looming conflict with Iran
– US intelligence says Iran doesn’t fully control proxies
– WaPo explains Ukraine civ-mil tensions
– NYT says Trump tariffs hurt jobs but pleased voters
– AP says DEA ran covert op in Venezuela
– CSIS has video and transcript of Israel discussion including Prof Cohen
The excellent D Brief has this: Lastly, “Dr. Strangelove” was released 60 years ago this week. Read a chronology of how the film came to be (from All the Right Movies), and an examination of what it got right (from Eric Schlosser).
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 30
– WSJ says defense contractors are turning down business.
– Axios says a Communist Party office is taking over from the foreign ministry.
-Steve Vladeck explains why Gov. Abbott’s actions are unconstitutional
– CIA Director Burns says CIA is changing
– African specialists say US gives too much military aid.
– Lawfare podcast discusses war powers against Houthis.
– What’s happened to the Heritage Foundation?
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My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 8
– Why does DNI think Israel will be in trouble if war expands to Lebanon?
– Why does MITRE think US intelligence is deficient in covering China?
– How dramatic is the new Japanese defense posture?
– What’s behind ouster of so many Chinese defense officials?
– Why didn’t we know about SecDef Austin’s hospitalization?
– What’s in the new budget deal?
– Can US keep its base in Niger?
– How bad are new threats linked to Iran?
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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