Tag: Intelligence
Stevenson’s army, June 16, 2023
Dan Ellsberg, who had a distinguished career in national security before leaking the Pentagon Papers, has died at 92. Fred Kaplan offers an appreciation. [I’ve pasted below a long excerpt from his memoir about advice he gave to Henry Kissinger about having access to government secrets.
Read the indictment of Jack Teixiera, the Discord leaker.
In other news, Hungary has cancelled weapons purchase that some in Congress had blocked.
Sen. Tuberville has been offered a vote on his bill, but he still blocks nominees.
Liz Schrayer, who heads a group that lobbies for more foreign aid [yes, there is one] has an op-ed on countering China. She reports elsewhere that “the House Appropriations Committee proposed dangerous cuts of 31% to America’s footprint in the world,” presumably meaning the GOP cut the allocation for the State/Foreign ops bill.
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Ellsberg to Kissinger, 1968 [from Ellsberg’s memoir, Secrets]
“Henry, there’s something I would like to tell you, for what it’s worth, something I wish I had been told years ago. You’ve been a consultant for a long time, and you’ve dealt a great deal with top secret information. But you’re about to receive a whole slew of special clearances, maybe fifteen or twenty of them, that are higher than top secret.
“I’ve had a number of these myself, and I’ve known other people who have just acquired them, and I have a pretty good sense of what the effects of receiving these clearances are on a person who didn’t previously know they even existed. And the effects of reading the information that they will make available to you.
“First, you’ll be exhilarated by some of this new information, and by having it all — so much! incredible! — suddenly available to you. But second, almost as fast, you will feel like a fool for having studied, written, talked about these subjects, criticized and analyzed decisions made by presidents for years without having known of the existence of all this information, which presidents and others had and you didn’t, and which must have influenced their decisions in ways you couldn’t even guess. In particular, you’ll feel foolish for having literally rubbed shoulders for over a decade with some officials and consultants who did have access to all this information you didn’t know about and didn’t know they had, and you’ll be stunned that they kept that secret from you so well.
“You will feel like a fool, and that will last for about two weeks. Then, after you’ve started reading all this daily intelligence input and become used to using what amounts to whole libraries of hidden information, which is much more closely held than mere top secret data, you will forget there ever was a time when you didn’t have it, and you’ll be aware only of the fact that you have it now and most others don’t….and that all those other people are fools.
“Over a longer period of time — not too long, but a matter of two or three years — you’ll eventually become aware of the limitations of this information. There is a great deal that it doesn’t tell you, it’s often inaccurate, and it can lead you astray just as much as the New York Times can. But that takes a while to learn.
“In the meantime it will have become very hard for you to learn from anybody who doesn’t have these clearances. Because you’ll be thinking as you listen to them: ‘What would this man be telling me if he knew what I know? Would he be giving me the same advice, or would it totally change his predictions and recommendations?’ And that mental exercise is so torturous that after a while you give it up and just stop listening. I’ve seen this with my superiors, my colleagues….and with myself.
“You will deal with a person who doesn’t have those clearances only from the point of view of what you want him to believe and what impression you want him to go away with, since you’ll have to lie carefully to him about what you know. In effect, you will have to manipulate him. You’ll give up trying to assess what he has to say. The danger is, you’ll become something like a moron. You’ll become incapable of learning from most people in the world, no matter how much experience they may have in their particular areas that may be much greater than yours.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 11
– WH admits China spying from Cuba — since 2019.
– Trump supporters call for violence.
– Researcher sees growing anti-MAGA majority.
– Any finds political polarizing between men and women.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, May 18 and 19
This is from yesterday: We’re back from travel and I’ve only begun to look at the accumulated papers. More to come. Meanwhile, these worthwhile pieces:
– Steve Walt has good advice on how people with master’s degrees can have good foreign policy careers.
– WOTR warns of the seduction of buzzwords.
-Substack columnist Noah Smith has interview with China specialist who has the best analysis I’ve seen of China’s tech policies.
– Media critic Dan Froomkin hits WaPo for not curating its classified leaks. I agree.
– I also agree with this call for beefing up CRS.
– NYT had fine profile of CIA director Burns.
In more recent news: US & allies disagree on F16s to Ukraine.
-Taiwan’s opposition has an interesting candidate.
– CFIUS may be used for Forbes acquisition.
– NYT questions Pentagon rules for special forces.
– FT says South Africa may face severe US sanctions
– Teixeira’s supervisors warned him about classified procedures but didn’t stop him.
Charlie posted this today:
– State has released a new foreign military sales policy, WSJ explains
– Pentagon acknowledges $3 billion accounting error, freeing more money for Ukraine.
– Assad is back in the good graces of the Arab League.
– Politico explain the legislative complexity of passing a debt ceiling bill.
– Glenn Kessler uses the example of “VA cuts” to explain how Ds & Rs argue over the GOP bill. [The point is that discretionary spending cuts are required but not identified.]
Good think pieces: By SAIS Prof Frank Gavin
– On Marine Corps reform
– On future Eurasian security
– And if you’re a subscriber, Economist has a new “defence” news site.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, May 6
FYI, I’ll be away for a while. But I’ll get to the saved papers when I return.
-In class, we read about the planning for the Iraq war and noted the inadequate planning for Phase IV. Author Garrett Graff has stunning revelations about the decisions on de-Baathification and disbanding the army that led to the insurgency.
– More on the Wagner fights with the Kremlin: WaPo found evidence in Discord leaks, now reports Prigozhin’s latest outburst.
-Politico sees challenges for CJCS successor Brown in some of his earlier statements.
– It’s a podcast, where Trump PDB briefer describes her work.
– Lawfare looks at the congressional debate over the debt language in the 14th amendment.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 28
– House defeats Gaetz measure to pullout from Somalia
-Face-off in the South China Sea
– Jake Sullivan explains administration foreign economic policy
– But Politico sees turf war over China policy.
-WaPo notes presidential news conferences are often managed.
– Vox summarizes lessons from 2011 debt ceiling fight.
– Court filing against Teixiera.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 27
– Important US-South Korean agreement on nuclear issues. The official statement. Analysis by Semafor.
-GOP Senators frustrated with Tuberville.
– Justice says Teixeira has long history of violent remarks.
– CNN says Trump kept documents of foreign leader meetings.
– Politico reports how Biden gets his news.
– Russian article discusses background to Ukraine war.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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