Tag: Iran
Stevenson’s army, March 3
– WSJ says Germany isn’t boosting defense as promised.
– Australian think tank says China leads US is key technologies. WSJ summary.
– WSJ sees US-EU clash over Iranian nuclear programs.
– Politico’s NatSec Daily says US won’t criticize India
– FP tells how Ukraine learned to fight
– WOTR has good piece on acquisition reform.
– Politico reports on administration WMD strategy.
Off topic but significant: it’s the phones.
And for fun, look at these maps.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, March 2
– WH releases its cyber security strategy.-
– Brookings assesses US support for Ukraine.
-Here’s a list of House China bills.
– But Politico sees softening of administration limits on Chinese investments
– Macron outlines France’s Africa policy.
– Hill reports on Iran’s nuclear capability.
– New Yorker reports on new CIA gym.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, February 15
– Just came across an excellent report on US technological competitiveness from last November.
– DIA released info on Iranian drones.
– There’s a report that Putin now travels by armored train.
– ISW report has a lot of info on Prigozhin.
– Eliot Cohen disparages comparisons to WW I & II.
– How much do news media people make? Look here.
Foreign Affairs has new articles by Prof Brands and Prof Szubin.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, February 8
-WaPo reports on China’s vast surveillance programs-
-China’s balloon program was reported last year.
-WSJ reports China now has more ICBM launchers than US, though many are empty.
-SASC Chairman Reed says Ukraine has more urgent needs than F16s
–Russia threatens expulsions of US officials
-FT says Iran is now shipping Russian oil.
-Axios says US asked Israel & PA to “pause” actions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
– In WOTR, former student urges “learning culture”
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, January 31
– WaPo says US likely to get new Philippine bases.
– NYT describes WH procedures for classified materials.
– In FT, Gideon Rachman says culture wars are now part of foreign policy
– FP notes Biden donors who have become ambassadors.
SAIS grad John Gans has a review of Chris Whipple’s book on the Biden administration in NYT Book review. I’m a little less enthusiastic because it’s mostly interview quotes with officials with little new information. Whipple did succeed in getting many attributed quotes compared to a Bob Woodward book. So, yes, read Whipple.
Avoid, however, the new Mike Pompeo memoir, an angry, nasty book, full of venom even for most of his Trump administration colleagues, but not the former president. He brags about firing CIA analysts who said good things about JCPOA; he calls State the “worst platoon,” meaning it needed substantial reforms; he calls FSO’s “overwhelmingly hard left;” he savages Nikki Haley and John Bolton; he says Jim Mattis “was not a sound fit” for the administration and criticizes his views on Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, and China; he expresses gratitude that Hillary Clinton was willing to talk to him about the SecState job, but then blasts her for being “the center of the Russia Hoax.” Turn these pages only with protective gloves. Burn after reading.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
It’s all over but the fighting
Winter has mostly frozen the front lines this winter in Ukraine. But preparations for the spring are well under way.
Dozens of recent-model NATO tanks are heading for Ukraine. Its air defenses are already taking down most Russian missiles and drones. More and better are on their way. Ukraine still needs longer-range artillery and missiles, but the US is resisting sending those that could target Crimea or Russia proper. Ukrainian war aims are clear: to regain control of its entire sovereign territory.
In Russia, a second mobilization (read “draft”) is under way. This will increase Moscow’s manpower by perhaps 200,000 untrained personnel. Iran has been sending drones to Russia, but China is sending little. It is unlear whether the weekend attack on Iranian drone-production facilities will have a signifiant mipact. Signs of Putin’s desperation are apparent: changing commanders, recruiting prisoners for cannon fodder, attacks on civilian infrastructure rather than military targets, crackdowns on dissent and economic protest at home. Russia intends to outlast Ukraine and hold on to Crimea and as much of Donbas as possible.
On the merits
The military, legal, and moral merits of the case favor Ukraine. Its military has proven far more capable, far better led, and far better motivated than anticipated a year ago. Russia attacked Ukraine on the basis of demonstrably false claims that its Russian-identifying population was at risk. President Putin’s “special operation” is patently a war of aggression, whichis a war crime. Ukraine’s efforts to regain control over its entire sovereign territory are a legitimate exercise of force, so long as they are conducted in accordance with the well-established laws of war.
Russia’s forces have proven a shadow of their reputation. They are poorly equipped, supplied, motivated, and trained. Their manpower is low quality, including a substantial number of convicts released from prison in order to fight. Their leadership is divided and competitive. Russia has conducted its war of aggression without regard for civilian casualties. It denies Ukrainian identity and has plundered Ukrainian cultural artifacts, kidnapped Ukrainian children for adoption in Russia, and ethnically cleansed territory it seizes.
On the battlefield
This war’s outcome will not however be settled on the merits, but rather on the battlefield. Neither the Ukrainians nor the Russians have concluded it would be better to negotiate. The Ukrainians are now racing to master and absorb all the new kit they are receiving from NATO members. The Russians are racing to incorporate their new recruits.
Ukraine will likely allow Russia the first offensive move this spring, as fewer forces are needed to defend. Only after destroying part of the attacking Russian forces will Ukraine launch its own offensive. If I had to guess the spearhead would aim somewhere along the Sea of Azov coast between Mariupol and Crimea. Dividing the Russian forces along the coast would enable Ukraine to target either Donetsk or Crimea. Russia might even have to decide between defending one or the other.
The home front
Russia is simmering with discontent. While the Kremlin maintains its dominance of the information space, Russian citizens know the war is not going well. Military bloggers are focusing on ineptitude. Even television is rife with complaints about military performance. The economy is sputtering. Increasingly, non-Russian citizens are doubting why they should be involved in invading Ukraine. Many would prefer to seek more autonomy from Moscow for themselves.
Ukraine is in better shape on the home front. The economy is in smithereens, but morale is high. Ukrainians support President Zelensky’s anti-corruption campaign. They want to regain control over Ukraine’s entire sovereign territory, including Crimea. There is little appetite for compromise. Ukrainians know all too well that would leave them exposed to future aggression.
Our home front
Perhaps even more important is the home front in the US and in Europe. American and European support is vital to Ukraine’s prospects in this war. In Washington, some philo-Russian Republicans would like to cut or end American support for Ukraine. Their only real opportunity will be in the budgetary battles to come this year. The outcome is unpredictable, but the Demcrats remain united and the Republicans divided. That bodes well for aid Ukraine. In Europe, solidarity with Ukraine has remained strong, despite serious differences among the allies on whether and when to negotiate. Putin has long hoped the US and Europe would crack. They haven’t yet.
It won’t be over until it’s over
States fight wars because their outcome is uncertain. On the merits at home and abroad, this one should be a win for the Ukrainians. But we’ll have to wait until at least mid-summer to know whether the merits will prevail. It’s all over but the fighting.
RSS - Posts
