Tag: Iran
Stevenson’s army, October 5
– Two civ-mil analysts use cases to explain why civilians defer to military advice.-
– Foreign policy analysts warn against declaring Russia a terrorist supporting state.
– A retired colonel says our 4 star officers need replacement.
– A retired Marine colonel says cable news shows should be banned on military bases.
-A Carnegie analyst says bad relations between Germany and Poland are hurting Ukraine.
– BBC notes criticism of Russian military by Russians.
– WSJ says Russia is using Iranian drones very effectively.
– Fred Kaplan says Musk’s “peace plan” won’t work now.
Then Charlie added:
Why wait? These are interesting.
US & Europe are trying to get an anti-Russia vote in the UN General Assembly.
Erdogan might be getting ready for war with Greece.
FP says US is cracking down on Paraguay.
CRS says NDAA may contain provisions on cyber personnel.
National Security Archive touts its document file on Cuban missile crisis.
And I was wrong in class about PAYGO. It’s still on the books, has been routinely cancelled each year, but this fall faces a $100 billion automatic sequester unless Congress agrees to cancel it again.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Strategic failure has consequences
9/11 produces lots of reflections. Here are mine.
Tactical success, strategic failure
The Al Qaeda attacks using commercial aircraft were largely successful. Three of four hit their intended targets and killed lots of people. But that tactical success did not lead to strategic victory. The Americans and others have hunted Al Qaeda for 20 years, killing not only its two leaders and many foot soldiers but destroying much of its organizational capacity.
But that tactical success has also not led to strategic victory. Al Qaeda has splintered and metastasized, spinning off the Islamic State and other extremist jihadi insurgents fighting in many more countries than two decades ago. This includes not only the imploded Middle Eastern states of Syria and Yemen, but also the African states of Libya, Mali, Mozambique, and Somalia.
Thus the prospect of tactical success tempts those with the capacity for violence into enterprises that end in strategic failure. This happened to the US in both Iraq and Afghanistan. We invaded because we could. Tactical success however saddled us with burdens we did not want. It took 10 years to extract most US forces from Iraq, and 20 from Afghanistan. The failure of state-building in Afghanistan has vitiated most gains from the initial military success. In Iraq, the failure is not complete, but the costs have been high.
It’s Russia’s turn
The Russians are now facing their own consequences of strategic failure. Their initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014 was largely successful. They annexed Crimea and occupied most of Luhansk and Donetsk using proxies. But President Putin wanted more. This year he tried to take Kyiv, complete the conquest of Donbas, and expand Russian control in the south. The Ukrainians fought off the attack on their capital and are now pushing the Russians back rapidly in Kharkiv province as well as more slowly around Kherson.
The ultimate military outcome is still uncertain. The Ukrainians could over-extend themselves. The Russians could succeed in regrouping and stop the Ukrainian advances or even return to territory they have lost in the past week.
But the strategic failure is already apparent. The Russian army, air force, and navy are in tatters. A reinvigorated NATO is expanding to Finland and Sweden as well as the troop presence on Russia’s borders. Sanctions are sapping the Russian economy. Europe is weaning itself rapidly from Russian oil and gas. States on Russia’s periphery are looking for opportunities to expand ties with the West. Nationalists in Russia who advocated the Ukraine war are turning on Putin. The war is solidifying Ukrainian national identity, increasing support for President Zelensky and the Ukrainian state even among Russian speakers.
The lesson
What should we learn from these strategic defeats of great powers? Confident of their military superiority, they go to war for reasons they think worthy. But war is a political as well as a military enterprise. Tactical military superiority makes it difficult to consider the consequences of strategic failure. Strategic failure is however always a possibility even if you win a war, as the Americans did in Iraq and Afghanistan and the Russians did in 2014 in Ukraine. This failure to take into account the real possibility of strategic failure is a major source of the blunders that lead to war.
Apply it to Iran
A quick footnote on applying this lesson to Iran. Israeli and American military superiority is overwhelming. But Iran is a big country, more or less the size and population of Iraq and Afghanistan combined. No one should be thinking about an invasion. Even hawkish thinking is limited to attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities and supporting infrastructure. Tactical success in that enterprise is not certain, as the Iranians have put a lot of their enrichment facilities deep under ground.
But strategic failure is almost certain. An Iran that has suffered an attack on its nuclear facilities will surely redouble its efforts to get nuclear weapons, as that would make repeat of the attack unthinkable. Sure, the attack could be repeated ad infinitum, “mowing the grass” as the Israelis say. But sooner or later Tehran would succeed in getting nuclear weapons. What then? Tactical success guarantees nothing. Strategic failure has consequences.
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Stevenson’s army, September 2
– Defense contractor lobbyists want boost for inflation.
– Appropriators plan stopgap until December.
– Axios says India has gone from buying 1% of Russian oil to 13%.
– State criticizes Iran’s response on nuclear deal.
– 50 in House also hit Iran deal.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 30
-WaPo says Ukraine has been using decoys to attract some Russian missiles.
-Le Monde says Russians are tuning out Moscow TV
– Former lawyer for NSA explains damage from Trump classification practices.
-Axios says Mossad chief is coming to DC with views on Iran nuclear deal.
– Retiring AP reporter tells how Congress has changed.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 24
– WaPo has the third in its series of major articles on the Ukraine war, this about the battle for Kyiv. Here’s the takeaway article.-
– AP says US to announce today $3 Billion more aid to Ukraine, but it doesn’t use presidential drawdown authority, so deliveries will be slow.
-AP has latest on Iran nuclear deal, but also reports Israeli opposition.
Armed Forces and Society, the premier journal on civil-military relations, has just released an excellent special issue on the war in Afghanistan.
– Among the analyses: Risa Brooks says COIN didn’t work given the ethnic groups and tribes. Ori Swed says contractors weren’t properly used. Don Travis says the Afghans were improperly trained. Will Atkins of USAFA says the US military followed Huntington’s ideas and shouldn’t have. And there’s more…
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 10
– NYT has some details of new Iran nuclear deal.-
– NYT tells how Russia seized control of internet in captured areas of Ukraine.
– Politico sees technology concerns in some weapons Ukraine wants.
– CSIS war game suggests Taiwan could withstand Chinese attack, at heavy cost.
– WaPo says Ukraine special forces launched Crimea attack.
– Fred Kaplan analyzes Milley disclosures about Trump.
– Politico explains key role of presidential staff secretary.
– Here’s second part of WOTR piece on army doctrine.
– Analysts see surge in violent messages after FBI search warrant.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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