Tag: Iran
This week’s peace picks
I’m out of town next week, but here are the events that I would consider attending if I were there:
1. Iran Nuclear Negotiations: What’s Next?, Atlantic Council, 9:30-11 am May 29
May 29, 2012
Please join the Atlantic Council’s Iran Task Force on Tuesday, May 29, for an in-depth review of the Iran nuclear talks that took place in Baghdad on May 23. These talks follow on discussions in Istanbul April 13-14, between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) that were relatively positive. Nevertheless, there are concerns whether a “step-by-step approach” to de-escalating the nuclear crisis with Iran can be achieved. Iran is looking to the international community to ease draconian sanctions, but US flexibility is limited, especially in a presidential election year. Additionally, Israel has a more restrictive view of the Iranian nuclear program than some in the United States and Europe. Panelists will analyze the converging and conflicting interest of the P5+1, Iran, Israel, as well as explore repercussions should negotiations fail.
A discussion with
David Albright
Founder and President
Institute for Science and International Security
Barbara Slavin
Senior Fellow, South Asia Center
Atlantic Council
Moderated by
Shuja Nawaz
Director, South Asia Center
Atlantic Council
| DATE: | Tuesday, May 29, 2012 |
| TIME: | 9:30 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. |
| LOCATION: | Atlantic Council 1101 15th Street, NW, 11th Floor Washington, DC 20005 |
To attend, RSVP with your name and affiliation (acceptances only), to southasia@acus.org. Photo credit: Getty Images.
David Albright is founder and president of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISSI) in Washington, DC. A physicist and former UN arms inspector, Albright has written numerous assessments of nuclear weapons programs throughout the world. He has co authored five books, including the 1992 and 1996 versions of World Inventory of Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium, (SIPRI and Oxford University Press); Challenges of Fissile Material Control (ISSI Press, 1999); Solving the North Korean Nuclear Puzzle (ISIS Press, 2000); and Peddling Peril: How the Secret Nuclear Trade Arms America’s Enemies (Free Press, 2010).
Barbara Slavin is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center and Washington correspondent for Al-Monitor.com, a new website devoted to news from and about the Middle East. The author of a 2007 book, Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the US and the Twisted Path to Confrontation, she is a regular commentator on US foreign policy and Iran on NPR, PBS, and C-SPAN. A career journalist, Slavin previously served as assistant managing editor for world and national security of The Washington Times, senior diplomatic reporter for USA Today, Cairo correspondent for The Economist, and as an editor at The New York Times Week in Review.
The Iran Task Force, co-chaired by Atlantic Council Chairman Senator Chuck Hagel and Ambassador Stuart E. Eizenstat, seeks to perform a comprehensive analysis of Iran’s internal political landscape, its role in the region and globally, and any basis for an improved relationship with the West. Please click here for more information about the Iran Task Force.
2. Assessing the Impact of Egypt’s Presidential Elections, Center for National Policy, noon-1:15 pm May 29
Although there are now competing sectors of power in Egypt, the outcome of its presidential elections will likely have a major impact on that country’s domestic and foreign policies. The Center for National Policy will be hosting a panel of experts, moderated by CNP Senior Fellow for the Middle East, Gregory Aftandilian, to discuss how these elections will affect Egypt and the future of U.S.-Egyptian relations.
Where
Center for National Policy
One Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Suite 333
Washington, DC 20001
202-682-1800
When
May 29 12:00 pm – 1:15 pm
3. Is America’s Age of Descent Ushering in a G-Zero World? Carnegie Endowment, 6-8 pm May 2
Register to attend
Edward Luce and Ian Bremmer will debate America’s changing role in the world given profound social, economic, and political challenges, as well as the geopolitical consequences. Luce’s new book, Time to Start Thinking: America in the Age of Descent, outlines the nation’s decline and the loss of its pragmatism; Bremmer’s book, Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World, details the risks and opportunities in a world without global leadership. Carnegie’s David Rothkopf will moderate.
4. Women’s Leadership in Post-Conflict Liberia: My Journey, WWC 10-noon May 30
Women’s Leadership in Post-Conflict Liberia:
My Journey
with Author Olubanke King-Akerele and
Special Keynote Address from
Liberian President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf
(via video-conference)Wednesday, May 30, 2012
from 10:00am-12:00pm
6th Floor Flom Auditorium
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
5. The Crisis in Northern Mali, Carnegie Endowment, 12:15-1:45 pm May 31
Anouar Boukhars, Rudolph Atallah, J. Peter Pham
Register to attend
While much attention has been focused on Mali’s capital Bamako following the March 22 coup overthrowing Mali’s elected government, developments in the northern part of the country may have greater regional implications. Bolstered by fighters and weapons flowing from Libya, separatist Tuareg rebels have succeeded in driving out government forces and allowed a number of Islamist groups to expand their presence.
A panel of experts will provide an update on the situation and discuss the broader regional implications for the Sahel, North Africa, and West Africa.
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Ramifications of an Iran nuclear deal
Optimism is breaking out in some circles for tomorrow’s nuclear talks in Baghdad with Iran. Tehran Bureau hopes for a win/win. Stimson projects possible success.
This hopefulness is based on the emerging sense that a quid pro quo is feasible. While the details people imagine vary, in general terms the deal would involve Iran revealing the full extent of its nuclear efforts and limiting enrichment to what the amount and extent it really needs under tight international supervision. The international community would ease off on sanctions.
What is far less clear than the shape of a deal is whether politics in either Tehran or Washington will allow it to happen, as Zack Beauchamp speculated on Twitter last week. Europe, which leads the p5+1 (US, UK, France, China, Russia and Germany) talks with Tehran is useful to the process but will go along with whatever the Americans and Iranians decide.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has been a major stumbling block in the past. He scuppered a deal a few years ago that would have supplied Iran with the enriched uranium it needs for a research reactor in exchange for shipping its own stockpile of 20% enriched uranium out of the country. Unquestionably more in charge than in the past, Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards who support him need hostility with the West to maintain their increasingly militarized regime. A resolution–even a partial one–of the nuclear standoff may not be in their interest.
It might not please hawks in the U.S. Congress either. They want a complete halt to enrichment in Iran and don’t want to rely on international inspections that might be suspended or otherwise blocked. Improvement in relations with Iran would hinder their hopes for regime change there. It would also make it difficult to criticize Barack Obama in the runup to the election for his diplomatic outreach to Iran, which failed initially but with the backing of draconian international sanctions seems now to be succeeding.
The smart money is betting that both Tehran and Washington will want to string out the negotiating process past the U.S. election in November. This would be a shame if a deal really is possible before then. The world economy would look a lot brighter if oil prices, pumped up since winter by Iranian threats to close the strait of Hormuz, sank well below $100 per barrel. Improved relations with Iran could also have positive knock-on effects in Iraq and Afghanistan, where Iran (which neighbors both countries) has sought to make things hard for the Americans.
A nuclear deal could also free the American hand a bit in Syria, where Washington has been reluctant to act decisively because it needs Russia and China on board for the P5+1 effort. Of course it might also work in the other direction: Washington could decide to give a bit in Syria in order to get a nuclear deal with Iran. That would not be our finest moment.
PS: Julian Borger is, as usual, worth reading, in particular on how low the bar has been set for the Baghdad talks.
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This week’s peace picks
A light week in DC. The big events are elsewhere: NATO Summit continuing today in Chicago, nuclear talks with Iran in Baghdad Wednesday, and Egyptian presidential election Wednesday and Thursday.
1. Egypt’s Presidential Election and Public Opinion: What Do Egyptians Want? Brookings, May 21, 3-4:30 pm
Brookings Institution
Washington, DC
Summary
The elections of 2012 could prove to be even more consequential for Egypt than the turbulence of 2011. Various Egyptian factions have spent the last year trying to find their place in the new post-Mubarak order, and for the first time Egyptians have an opportunity to choose their president. It is a critical time to take the pulse of the population.
On May 21, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will unveil the results of a new University of Maryland poll. Conducted in the weeks leading up to Egypt’s historic presidential election, the poll gauges which candidate is most favored by the public, what issues are driving public preferences, what Egyptians want their leader and their country to look like, and what role they want religion to play in politics. In addition, the poll explores Egyptian public attitudes toward the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty, the Iran nuclear issue, the Syria crisis, and the American presidential election. Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow Shibley Telhami, principal investigator of the poll and the Anwar Sadat professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland, will present his latest research and key findings. Steven Cook, the Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations will provide commentary and offer his insights from his own research. Senior Fellow Daniel Byman, director of research for the Saban Center, will moderate the discussion.
After the program, panelists will take audience questions.
2. The Dynamics of Iran’s Domestic Policy, WWC, 9-10:30 am May 22
Bernard Hourcade
Public Policy Scholar, Woodrow Wilson Center, and Senior Research Fellow (emeritus) CNRS
Bijan Khajehpour
Managing Partner, Atieh International
On the eve of the Baghdad meeting between Iran and the P5+1, two Iran experts will discuss the role of domestic dynamics—recent parliamentary elections, divisions among the ruling elite, economic difficulties—in Iran’s decision to return to the negotiating table on the nuclear issue.
- post-war political agreements, especially the effects of excluding or including parties to the conflict both in governance and in security institutions, such as the military and police;
- the role of international diplomats and mediators;
- economic arrangements in peace agreements;
- the role of peacekeeping missions.
An array of cases will be discussed.
Speakers
- Charles “Chuck” Call, Presenter
Associate Professor, American University, and former Jennings Randolph Senior Fellow (2008-2009) - Caroline Hartzell, Presenter
Professor of Political Science, Gettysburg College and former Jennings Randolph Senior Fellow (2010-2011) - Lise Howard, Presenter
Assistant Professor of Government, Georgetown University, and current Jennings Randolph Senior Fellow - Ambassador Robert Loftis
former Acting Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization (S/CRS) at U.S. Department of State, current USIP Interagency Professional in Residence; - Pamela Aall, Moderator
Provost, USIP’s Academy for International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding
4. The Day After Baghdad: Assessing the Iran Nuclear Talks, National Iranian American Council, 2-3:30 pm May 24
A panel discussion featuring:
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| PJ Crowley Former Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs |
George Perkovich |
Bijan Khajehpour |
Aaron David Miller |
Trita Parsi |
Thursday, May 24, 2012
2:00 p.m. to 3:30 p.m.
101 Constitution Ave, NW
Capitol View Conference Room, 7th Floor
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MEK, yech
This morning’s report that the State Department is close to a decision expected to de-list the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) as a terrorist group quickly aroused the cry of “shameful” in the blogosphere.
Hillary Clinton is unquestionably in a difficult spot: a U.S. court has ordered a re-examination of the designation, which was certainly justified at the time it was made. Presumably the issue is whether the MEK, which has managed to hire a lot of high-priced American talent to speak on its behalf, still merits the “terrorist” designation, as it claims to have renounced violence, which it used against not only Iran but also the United States in the past.
Next week’s nuclear talks with Iran complicate the issue. De-listing the MEK just before the talks could derail them. De-listing the MEK after the talks, if they go well, could provoke an unfortunate reaction in Tehran.
Keeping the MEK on the terrorist list is of course an option. Some people think the MEK has been responsible for killing Iranian nuclear scientists. That would certainly rate a terrorist designation, even if no one in America is mourning their loss. If they are not actively involved today in terrorist acts, the MEK would likely not be unique on the list–there are other organizations listed who seem past their terrorist prime. But they may lack the resources to get a court to order a review.
There is one complicating factor: the bulk of MEK’s cadres are being moved from one place in Iraq, where they took refuge under Saddam Hussein, to another. The Secretary of State has said she would decide the de-listing issue once that has been accomplished. This implied approval of de-listing, even if it has nothing to do with the merits of the case.
So it is a difficult choice for the Secretary of State. If she de-lists, she runs the risk of upsetting nuclear talks that are far more important than the MEK. If she doesn’t, she runs the risk of provoking the MEK’s many backers, including in Congress, and losing one day in court. I’d opt to keep them on the list, at least until I was certain they were not responsible for the murder of Iranian nuclear scientists. But there is ample reason to find the issue distasteful.
MEK, yech.
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This week’s peace picks
Are things slowing down, or is it just me? Still some excellent events:
1. Is the Arab Awakening Marginalizing Women? WWC, 9 am-12:45 pm May 14
The Middle East Program and the Council of Women World Leaders
of the Woodrow Wilson Center
present
Is the Arab Awakening Marginalizing Women?
Monday, May 14, 2012
6th Floor Flom Auditorium
8:30 – 9:00am Coffee
9:00 – 9:20am Welcoming Remarks: Haleh Esfandiari, Director, Middle East Program, Woodrow Wilson Center
Opening Remarks: Jane Harman, President, Director and CEO, Woodrow Wilson Center
9:20 – 11:00am PANEL 1
Fatima Sbaity-Kassem, Former Director, UN-ESCWA Centre for Women
“A Cup Half Full or Half Empty: Is a ‘Women’s Spring’ Inevitable in Transitions to Democracy?”
Lilia Labidi, Visiting Research Professor, Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore; Former Minister of Women’s Affairs, Tunisia; and Former Fellow, Woodrow Wilson Center
“Tunisia: Policies and Programs for Women during a Democratic Transition”
Moushira Khattab, Public Policy Scholar, Woodrow Wilson Center; Former Egyptian Ambassador to South Africa and to the Czech and Slovak Republics; and Former Minister of Family and Population, Egypt
“Lost in Translation: The Case of Egyptian Women”
Moderator: Haleh Esfandiari, Director, Middle East Program, Woodrow Wilson Center
11:00 – 11:15am Coffee Break
11:15 – 12:45pm PANEL 2
Rend Al-Rahim, Executive Director, Iraq Foundation; and Former Iraqi Ambassador to the United States
“Iraq: Frustrated Expectations”
Rola Dashti, Former member of Kuwaiti Parliament and Chairman, Kuwait Economic Society
“Arab Springs without Flowers”
Caryle Murphy, Public Policy Scholar, Woodrow Wilson Center
“Awakening Rains on Saudi Desert, Brings Green Shoots of Hope, Change”
Rangita de Silva de Alwis, Director, Women in Public Service Project Institute 2012, Wellesley College; and Director of International Human Rights Policy, Wellesley Centers for Women
“The Way Ahead: Some Lessons from Other Post-Conflict Communities”
Moderator: Robin Wright, USIP-Wilson Center Distinguished Scholar
Read MEP’s latest publication on women in the Arab Spring: Reflections on Women in the Arab Spring
2. Solution or Stall? The Next Round of Talks with Iran, Bipartisan Policy Center, 10-11:30 May 14
Address:
1225 Eye St. NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC, 20005
On May 23, the United States and its international partners will sit down in Baghdad for another round of talks with Iran. While a diplomatic deal remains the best hope for a peaceful resolution to the international standoff over Iran’s nuclear program, experts disagree over what terms the United States should accept and what can be expected from Iran. Join BPC and a distinguished panel for a discussion of what to expect from, and what is at stake in, the upcoming negotiations.
Featuring
Ambassador Dennis Ross
Counselor, The Washington Institute
Elliott Abrams
Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
Undersecretary Nick Burns
Professor, Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of of Government
Steve Rademaker
Principal, Podesta Group
Member, BPC Iran Task Force
Moderated by
Mortimer Zuckerman
CEO and Chairman, Boston Properties
Member, BPC Iran Task Force
Introduction by
Michael Makovsky
Director, BPC Foreign Policy Project
REGISTER
3. Delivering Dignity in the Arab World through Political and Economic Reform, CIPE, noon-2 pm May 15
CIPE, 1155 15th Street, NW, 7th Floor
May 15, 2012
12:00 pm – 2:00 pm
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Speakers: Larry Diamond, Director, Stanford University’s Center on Michele Dunne, Director, Atlantic Council’s John D. Sullivan, Executive Director, Moderated by Steve Clemons, Editor at Large, The Atlantic, Last year’s uprisings made clear that people were willing to make great sacrifices to build states and societies capable of delivering dignity to their citizens. This luncheon will offer an opportunity to explore the key linkages between political and economic reform in the Arab world and identify the opportunities and challenges to institutionalizing democratic values in economies throughout the region. |
Lunch will be provided.
RSVP by Friday, May 11, 2012
4. The U.S. National Security Budget, AEI, 1-2:30 May 15
On Tuesday, May 15, join the American Enterprise Institute, the Center for a New American Security and the New America Foundation to discuss an issue sure to face the next administration: U.S. defense spending in light of American grand strategy. With the “sequestration” mechanism set to cut at least $500 billion from the Department of Defense, on top of budget reductions in recent years, discussants will consider how these cuts could affect defense policy. Former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Michèle Flournoy will provide introductory remarks.
This event continues a unique collaboration among these institutions in the presidential campaign season, “Election 2012: The National Security Budget.” Past conversations covered the U.S. role in the world and policy in East Asia, and a later event will consider U.S. relations with the greater Middle East.
Schedule:
12:45 p.m. – Registration
1:00 p.m. – Remarks
Featured Speaker
Michèle Flournoy
Former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy
Panelists
David Barno
Senior Advisor and Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security
Thomas Donnelly
Resident Fellow and Co-Director of the Marilyn Ware Center for Security Studies, American Enterprise Institute
Michael Waltz
Senior National Security Fellow, New America Foundation
Former Advisor on South Asia to Vice President Cheney
Moderator
Peter David
Washington Bureau Chief, The Economist
2:30 p.m. – Adjournment
Election 2012: Informing the National Security Agenda was launched on March 15 with a kickoff discussion on America’s role in the world and the strategies this might suggest for the elected commander-in-chief.
Future Events Include:
The U.S. and the Greater Middle East, keynote to be announced
July 17, 2012
New America Foundation, 1899 L St. NW #400 Washington, DC
This fall’s presidential election comes at a critical moment for the United States and the world. The demands for U.S. leadership are substantial–particularly in the dynamic Middle East and Asia-Pacific–yet fiscal challenges are forcing reductions in American military power and defense spending, sparking new thinking about American engagement with the world. In this important election season, many Americans will look to the next U.S. president to repair the economy, but he will nonetheless inherit complicated military and diplomatic engagements and govern as commander-in-chief of the globe’s most powerful nation. As a result, the discussion of national security issues must take a central role in the 2012 presidential election.
This event is the third in a series of four campaign-season seminars on the critical issues of U.S. foreign and defense policy, sponsored by AEI, the Center for a New American Security and the New America Foundation.
5. A Blueprint for Engagement Amid Austerity: A Bipartisan Approach to Reorienting the International Affairs Budget, 10:30-noon, May 16
Featuring report co-authors:
John Norris, Executive Director of the Sustainable Security and Peacebuilding Initiative, Center for American Progress
Connie Veillette, Director of the Rethinking U.S. Foreign Assistance Program, Center for Global Development
And distinguished panelists:
Gordon Adams, Professor, School of International Service, American University, and Distinguished Fellow, the Stimson Center
Andrew Preston, Counsellor for Development, Foreign and Security Policy Group, British Embassy
Moderated by:
George Ingram, MFAN Co-Chair
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
10:30am–12:00pm
The Glover Park Group
1025 F St NW, 9th Floor
Washington, DC
Please RSVP by Monday, May 14th to event@modernizeaid.net. Space is limited.
Please join MFAN for a discussion on a new report from the Center for American Progress and the Center for Global Development. The report, A Blueprint for Better Engagement Amid Austerity: A Bipartisan Approach to Reorienting the International Affairs Budget, calls for a more focused approach to how the U.S. delivers economic and security assistance.
We will be joined by the report’s authors to share their findings and recommendations followed by a reactions from a distinguished panel and Q and A.
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Talking Turkey
There were Turks in town this week. Well-informed ones who spoke off the record at a meeting that included other luminaries. Here are some of the conclusions from the discussion.
Zero problems with neighbors, Turkey’s avowed foreign policy based on realpolitik, blew away in the gusts of idealism associated with the Arab spring. Turkey now has growing problems with neighbors, especially Syria and Iran but also Iraq.
Syria. Turkey misread Bashar al Assad. Ankara thought he would step aside, but that reflected a misunderstanding of the nature of the Ba’ath regime and an underestimation of the difficulty of getting Bashar out. In fact, Turkey generally lacks people who understand the Middle East well, and even experts who speak Arabic.
With the U.S. reluctant to intervene, Turkey is paralyzed, fearing that anything it does will worsen its own problems with the Kurds and increase refugee flows. Prime Minister Erdogan’s voice is much stronger than his policies. He lacks domestic political support for any further move against Bashar al Assad. There is little popular sympathy for the Syrian revolution in Turkey. Ankara says it supports an inclusive Syrian National Council (SNC), but in practice Turkish support goes mainly to the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, the dominant influence within the Syrian National Council, not to secularists.
Turkey wants the Syrian Kurds to support the revolution, but it isn’t willing to support their desire for decentralization. Ankara pressured the SNC to deny the Kurds what they want, causing them to withdraw from the SNC entirely.
Iran. Turkish relations with Iran have deteriorated sharply. The traditional highly competitive but non-hostile relationship is turning ugly, despite rapidly growing bilateral trade. The balance is sharply in Iran’s favor. Iran will not back down on Syria. Nor will Turkey. Tensions are bound to escalate. It is not clear where the breaking point lies, but there is no sign that it can be avoided.
Iraq. Turkey has improved its relations with the Iraqi Kurds (particularly Kurdistan Regional Government President Barzani) in an effort to influence the Syrian Kurds. But Ankara’s relationship with Baghdad has taken a turn for the worse. Turkey is competing for influence in Iraq with Iran.
Bottom lines: A few years ago, Ankara had hopes for zero problems with neighbors and was knocking on the door to the Europe. If Assad survives, Turkey will now face increasing Middle East turmoil that it has little capacity to manage and no European prospect. Ankara has bitten off more than it can chew in Syria and has little idea what to do about it.
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