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Civilians are still the short pole in the tent

While Secretary of State Clinton touts her efforts to strengthen the civilian side of U.S. foreign policy, an experienced voice speaking out from the Baquba Provincial Reconstruction Team in Iraq still sees problems with recruitment, training and leadership. No need to choose between the two: both are on the right track, but civilians are still the short pole in the tent when it comes to expeditionary state-building.

Where is that long promised Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review? Will it be another four years?

Biden forgets Moqtada

You’ll all notice the Vice President’s piece in the New York Times this morning, which is a fine summary of what remains to be done in Iraq, but neglects to mention that the new Iraqi government will include the Sadrists, a violently anti-American political force that Washington tried to block from joining the governing coalition.  Does this presage a changed American attitude, or just a polite effort to put the best face on things?

P.S.:  Note the vigorous support for the “National Council for Higher Policies” (it comes out differently in every translation), which is the main thing Allawi gained from eight months of negotiation.

Where is Allawi?

The short answer is London.  Most of his Iraqiyya coalition has returned to the parliament, and some of its members are lobbying hard to be included in Maliki’s cabinet.  But (secularist, Shia) Allawi has abandoned the field.  This leaves the Iraqi secularists, who joined with Sunni Islamists in backing Iraqiyya, without a champion.

The Americans, having lost ground to Tehran in the government formation process, should be starting to invest now in strengthening Iraq’s secularists.  Magnificent as his performance was this time around, it can’t be that Allawi is the only bet for three years from now.  All of us who talk with Iraqis (and the pollsters) know that there is a deep well of Iraqi nationalist, non-sectarian, secularist sentiment in the country.  Now is the time to nurture it.

It really is current, but still history

I agreed some time in September to do a piece for Current History on the government formation process in Iraq. Completed a couple of weeks ago, it is now of course out of date, but some may still be interested.  The process has been prolonged, rough and tumble, but still largely nonviolent and mostly rule-bound.  Let’s hope Maliki keeps it that way.

Which libretto is Maliki singing from?

Last we heard in the eight-month saga of forming a government, the Iraqi Parliament had chosen a Speaker and re-elected President Jalal Talabani, who in turn gave Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki 30 days in which to form a new government.

This deal left Iyad Allawi, the secular Shia leader of a largely Sunni coalition, with the dregs:  chairmanship of a “national council for higher strategic policies,” “un-de-Ba’athification” of three of his leading Sunni lights and still unspecified ministries for Iraqiyya followers. Now it is unclear whether Allawi will get even that much, according to Marina Ottaway and Danial Kaysi of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  There is little  in writing, and Maliki seems inclined to forget what was promised and continue his effort to centralize power.  Meanwhile, Allawi has reportedly winged off to London, presumably to be lured back only if Maliki sings him an enchanting melody.  That isn’t likely.

Bottom line:  the Americans and Iranians have both ended up supporting Maliki, to the detriment of Sunnis and secularists.  This is not likely to reduce Iraqi paranoia, which holds that everything that has happened since 2003 is a plot by Washington and Tehran, working together.