Tag: Iraq
Biden forgets Moqtada
You’ll all notice the Vice President’s piece in the New York Times this morning, which is a fine summary of what remains to be done in Iraq, but neglects to mention that the new Iraqi government will include the Sadrists, a violently anti-American political force that Washington tried to block from joining the governing coalition. Does this presage a changed American attitude, or just a polite effort to put the best face on things?
P.S.: Note the vigorous support for the “National Council for Higher Policies” (it comes out differently in every translation), which is the main thing Allawi gained from eight months of negotiation.
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Weekend reading and touring
More than 10 years managing programs at USIP have left me well behind in the bookreading category. This week’s efforts will be focused on finishing Joseph Stiglitz’ and Linda Bilmes’ The Three Trillion Dollar War, now two years old but still edifying, and Michael Mandelbaum’s more recent and even more edifying The Frugal Superpower, which examines the constraints fiscal stringency will put on American foreign policy. Both are well-written, easy reads, on which I’ll comment more fully once I’ve finished them.
I’m also planning a visit today to President Lincoln’s Cottage, where he spent many nights during the Civil War. Adjacent to a Union cemetery, the cottage is today largely unfurnished. But the National Park Service tour somehow manages to evoke the environment in which Lincoln deliberated on slavery and war. There is nothing like your own civil war for beginning to understand other people’s civil wars.
I’ll be on the road tomorrow but hope to be up and running again bright and early Monday. Have a fine weekend!
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Where is Allawi?
The short answer is London. Most of his Iraqiyya coalition has returned to the parliament, and some of its members are lobbying hard to be included in Maliki’s cabinet. But (secularist, Shia) Allawi has abandoned the field. This leaves the Iraqi secularists, who joined with Sunni Islamists in backing Iraqiyya, without a champion.
The Americans, having lost ground to Tehran in the government formation process, should be starting to invest now in strengthening Iraq’s secularists. Magnificent as his performance was this time around, it can’t be that Allawi is the only bet for three years from now. All of us who talk with Iraqis (and the pollsters) know that there is a deep well of Iraqi nationalist, non-sectarian, secularist sentiment in the country. Now is the time to nurture it.
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It really is current, but still history
I agreed some time in September to do a piece for Current History on the government formation process in Iraq. Completed a couple of weeks ago, it is now of course out of date, but some may still be interested. The process has been prolonged, rough and tumble, but still largely nonviolent and mostly rule-bound. Let’s hope Maliki keeps it that way.
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Which libretto is Maliki singing from?
Last we heard in the eight-month saga of forming a government, the Iraqi Parliament had chosen a Speaker and re-elected President Jalal Talabani, who in turn gave Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki 30 days in which to form a new government.
This deal left Iyad Allawi, the secular Shia leader of a largely Sunni coalition, with the dregs: chairmanship of a “national council for higher strategic policies,” “un-de-Ba’athification” of three of his leading Sunni lights and still unspecified ministries for Iraqiyya followers. Now it is unclear whether Allawi will get even that much, according to Marina Ottaway and Danial Kaysi of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. There is little in writing, and Maliki seems inclined to forget what was promised and continue his effort to centralize power. Meanwhile, Allawi has reportedly winged off to London, presumably to be lured back only if Maliki sings him an enchanting melody. That isn’t likely.
Bottom line: the Americans and Iranians have both ended up supporting Maliki, to the detriment of Sunnis and secularists. This is not likely to reduce Iraqi paranoia, which holds that everything that has happened since 2003 is a plot by Washington and Tehran, working together.
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Still getting ready to sing
Anti-Kurd hardliner Osama al Nujaifi has been elected Speaker of the parliament in Baghdad, but then he and the rest of Iraqqiya walked out, apparently in protest against the treatment of some of its former Baathist members. Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani has been voted back into the Presidency, which however has lost the veto and is now almost entirely ceremonial. Its one substantial function is to designate a prime minister; Talabani almost immediately named Maliki, who gets a month to put together a government.
Allawi and Maliki reportedly sat together in parliament as a sign of solidarity, which won’t mean much in light of the subsequent walk-out.
Still no naming of ministers, or other devilish details like precisely what Allawi has been promised on the national security front.
No need yet to take your seats for the finale. The scruffily bearded guy won’t sing until the ministerial nominations are ready, which could still be weeks away.
Iraqi parliament convenes in 1st steps to new govt – Yahoo! News.
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