Tag: Iraq

Stevenson’s army, August 21

– 73 officials who served in Republican administrations, including Dean Cohen and Prof Edelman [who were Never Trumpers in 2016], have signed a letter endorsing Joe Biden for president.
– Bipartisan Scowcroft Center report says DHS should refocus its mission.
– Politico says OMB political appointees have been given more power to apportion funds, a job previously done by careerists. WaPo confirms.
DOD moves to classified telework.
– Iraq developments: militia riots in Basra; US companies get contracts; PM meets with POTUS.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Peace Picks | August 17 – August 21, 2020

Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.

  • A Conversation With Former US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton | August 17, 2020 | 12:00 – 12:45 PM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here

    Please join the Atlantic Council on Monday, August 17, 2020, from 12 p.m. to 12:45 p.m. EDT for a conversation featuring former US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Secretary Clinton’s experience from the Department of State, Senate, and the campaign trail makes her ideally suited to ponder the top foreign policy priorities in the next four years for the next presidential administration. The discussion will focus on America’s role in the world in the new decade and the future of US leadership, at an inflection point in history.

    This special edition of the #ACFrontPage event series, launches the Atlantic Council’s Elections 2020: America’s Role in the World, a series of conversations on the top foreign policy priorities for the next four years, featuring the most prominent voices shaping the national dialogue. From the Conventions to the Elections, the series will explore key questions concerning America’s role and interests in the world, bringing a foreign policy perspective to the conversation and addressing the most critical issues at the intersection between the domestic and international spheres.

    Speakers:

    The Honorable Hillary Rodham Clinton:
    Former Secretary of State, United States of America

    Fredrick Kempe: President & CEO, Atlantic Council
  • Afghanistan’s Future: Regional Perspectives on the Road Ahead | August 18, 2020 | 8:30 – 10:00 AM EST | Stimson Center | Register Here

    Future outcomes in Afghanistan will be shaped for years to come by two key milestones: the withdrawal of U.S. troops and negotiations between the Afghan government and Taliban representatives. In this virtual panel discussion, contributors to a recent series on the future of Afghanistan in South Asian Voices, Stimson’s online magazine, will come together to share perspectives from across the region and explore how Afghanistan, the United States, Pakistan, India, and Iran might respond to a range of future scenarios.

    Speakers:

    Bismellah Alizada:
    Co-Founder, Rahila Foundation; Deputy Director, Organization for Policy Research & Development Studies (DROPS)

    Fizza Batool: Doctoral Candidate, International Relations, University of Karachi

    Neha Dwivedi: Research Analyst, Janes

    Jumakhan Rahyab: Fulbright Graduate Fellow, University of Massachusetts

    Saurav Sarkar: Research Associate, Center for Air Power Studies (New Delhi); South Asian Voices Visiting Fellow, Stimson Center

    Elizabeth Threlkeld: Senior Fellow & Deputy Director of the South Asia Program, Stimson Center
  • Has Belarus Reached a Point of No Return? | August 18, 2020 | 11:00 – 11:45 AM EST | Center for Strategic & International Studies | Register Here

    Following a stolen election which allowed 26-year strongman ruler Alexander Lukashenko to claim a landslide victory, tens of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets across more than 30 towns and cities to demand his resignation and new elections. Met with shocking brutality, armed police and interior ministry troops have been deployed by the thousands, indiscriminately attacking protestors and journalists with live and rubber bullets as well as flash grenades. Despite the violence, massive protests have continued into the week even as authorities disabled internet connections in the evenings and, as of August 12, detained more than 6,000 protestors.

    The situation remains dynamic. Opposition challenger Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has fled to neighboring Lithuania under duress after conceding defeat in what appeared to be a forced televised address. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin, one of the first leaders to congratulate Lukashenko for his victory, hinted in his message that Moscow’s support for the embattled president may be contingent on Belarus’ further integration with Russia. The United States and European Union have condemned the crackdown, and EU foreign ministers are set to meet on August 14 to discuss targeted sanctions.

    Has Belarus passed the point of no return where Lukashenko’s leadership is no longer tenable? Can the opposition movement inside the country continue without a leader? How might Russia respond in the event of an escalation in protests and Lukashenko’s departure? What are the implications for European security? How should the United States and European Union respond to these developments?

    Speakers:

    Valery Tsepkalo:
    Former Ambassador to the United States, Belarus; Candidate for President (2020), Belarus

    Vladislav Inozemtsev: Non-Resident Senior Associate, CSIS

    Heather A. Conley: Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, & the Arctic, CSIS
  • The Status of the Fight Against ISIS | August 18, 2020 | 12:00 PM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here

    ISIS has lost its territory in Syria and is no longer able to conduct large-scale internal or external attacks. Nonetheless, the organization has been able to regroup, continues to generate funds through its illicit activities, and has resumed low-level operations.

    The United States and its partners must solidify gains against ISIS, particularly as the possibility looms of a further drawdown of US troops in Syria. Active combat against the group is winding down. It is now necessary to prevent a future ISIS resurgence by finding ways to keep up the pressure while also tackling the root causes of the wider unrest. What challenges remain for US and European policymakers in order to eliminate an ISIS revival? What support is still needed for local partners and communities to ensure they are not at risk from ISIS again?

    Speakers:

    Jomana Qaddour (Moderator):
    Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council

    Jasmine El-Gamal:
    Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, Atlantic Council

    Christopher Maier: Director, Defeat ISIS Task Force, Office of the Secretary of Defense, US Department of Defense

    Robert Rhode: Ambassador for Negotiations on Syria & Head of Division for Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, & Anti-ISIS Strategy, German Federal Foreign Office
  • How the United States Can Use Force Short of War | August 19, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EST | Brookings Institution | Register Here

    In their new book “Military Coercion and US Foreign Policy,” co-authors and Stimson Center experts Barry Blechman, James Siebens, and Melanie Sisson argue that during the Cold War, U.S. efforts to coerce other states using non-violent methods short of war failed as often as they succeeded. But unlike the Soviet Union, whose economy was stagnant and technology behind the West, in the coming years, the United States must contend with far more capable competitor powers. The book generates insight into how the U.S. military can be used to achieve policy goals. Specifically, it provides guidance about the ways in which, and the conditions under which, U.S. armed forces can work in concert with economic and diplomatic elements of U.S. power to create effective coercive strategies.

    Speakers:

    Michael E. O’Hanlon (Moderator):
    Director of Research, Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution

    Barry Blechman: Distinguished Fellow, Stimson Center

    Melanie Sisson: Non-Resident Fellow, Stimson Center
  • The Kashmir Conflict: A Year of Tumult | August 20, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM EST | Stimson Center | Register Here

    Join USIP and the Stimson Center for a conversation, featuring Stimson South Asia Program Director Sameer Lalwani, focused on the tensions between India and Pakistan and prospects for resolving the bilateral dispute, as well as the domestic Kashmiri resistance and both the violent and non-violent movements within Kashmir that may challenge Indian attempts to reshape Kashmir’s status.

    Speakers:

    Happymon Jacob:
    Associate Professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University

    Sameer Lalwani: Director, South Asia Program, Stimson Center

    Tamanna Salikuddin: Director, South Asia Program, U.S. Institute of Peace
  • Protest Movements & Refugee Inclusion in Civil Society | August 21, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here

    Protests in Iraq and Lebanon have drawn global attention as protestors advocate for political and economic reform and an end to corruption, especially in the wake of the Beirut blast and Lebanon’s disaster response. These countries also face economic crisis and socio-political challenges relating to the millions of refugees and IDPs within their borders and the lack of sustainable policies to address displaced people’s needs. In Lebanon and Iraq, refugees and IDPs face discrimination and lack of access to educational and public health resources in addition to the widespread economic pain and disenfranchisement that these countries protest movements aim to confront.

    How have refugees in these countries been active in or left out of these movements? How can access gaps and discrimination be overcome to integrate refugee rights into these protest movements? How do protest movements reflect a desire to integrate refugees and IDPs into the social fabric of these countries?

    Speakers:

    Joyce Karam (Moderator): Washington Correspondent, The National

    Sawsan Abdulrahmin: Associate Professor of Public Health, American University of Beirut

    Noof Assi: Women’s Protection & Empowerment Coordinator, Emergency Response Team, International Rescue Committee; Co-Founder, IQ Peace
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Stevenson’s army, August 14

French navy goes to help Greece against Turkey.
Chinese navy near Taiwan.
US seizes ships with Iranian oil.
David Ignatius praises UAE-Israel agreement.
Slate has more background.
I recently read Robert Draper’s excellent book on the start of the Iraq war. Here’s the NYT review.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Peace Picks | August 3 – 9, 2020

Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream. 

  • Coronavirus and the Conflict in Syria | August 4, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:15 AM | US Institute of Peace | Register Here

Countries in conflict have been especially hard hit by COVID-19, with the pandemic compounding numerous pre-existing challenges. In Syria, limited humanitarian access, a devastated health care system, and unreliable data have hampered the response—particularly in areas outside of regime control, where autonomous authorities struggle with minimal testing capabilities and access to aid. As the virus begins to make significant inroads into the conflict-affected country, there are also worries about how the virus will impact the millions of Syrians currently displaced.

Speakers:

The Honorable Nancy Lindborgintroductory remarks 
President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace

David Lillie: Executive Director, Syrian American Medical Society

Dr. Mohammad Al-Haj Hamdo: Health Coordinator in Northeast Syria, Syria Relief

Dr. Hamza Alsaied Hasan: Quality and Development Manager for Northwest Syria, Syrian American Medical Society

Dr. Amjad Rass: Chairman of the Northern Syria Medical Relief Committee, Syrian American Medical Society 

Dr. Bachir Tajaldin: Senior Program Manager for Turkey, Syrian American Medical Society

Mona Yacoubian (moderator): Senior Advisor to the Vice President, Middle East and Africa, U.S. Institute of Peace


  • Gender and Displacement in the Middle East during COVID-19 | August 4, 2020 | 10:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here

As the global refugee crisis continues amid the spread of Covid-19 and economic collapse, displaced women face growing dangers in the Middle East. Women refugees and IDPs are at greater risk of domestic and gender-based violence, and many struggle with new roles as both primary income earners and sole caregivers of their children in unfamiliar environments. Additionally, sexist legal systems have become a push factor for women refugees, and insufficient legal protections exist for women refugees in many host countries.

How does the lens of gender help to understand the female migrant experience? How do changing social and economic roles impact the livelihoods and safety of displaced women? What policies and practices can be implemented to provide greater protection from violence and insecurity for women refugees?

Speakers:

Shaza Al Rihawi: Researcher, Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories; co-founder, Network for Refugee Voices

Miriam Azar: In-Country Representative for Lebanon and Turkey, The Malala Fund

Devon Cone: Senior advocate for women and girls, Refugees International

Dalal Yassine: Executive director, Middle East Voices

Hafsa Halawa (moderator): Nonresident scholar, MEI


  • Jordan in 2020: Protests and Pandemic | August 5, 2020 | 10:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here

The start of the new decade in Jordan has been marred by unrest. In January, thousands of Jordanians took to the streets to protest both President Trump’s Middle East peace plan and the gas deal signed between Israel and Jordan. This wave of dissent came on the heels of the 2019 protests against increased austerity measures, a follow up to the 2018 movement that saw the resignation of Hani Mulki’s government. Though Jordan quickly adopted stringent measures to combat the virus, the economy will suffer a huge blow, exacerbating Jordan’s existing development challenges and popular discontent. Furthermore, the pandemic prompted troubling restrictions on freedom of speech, with an April decree stating that sharing anything that may “cause panic” about the pandemic is punishable with up to three years in prison. 

How have protest movements in Jordan been impacted by Covid-19, and what do recent protests over honor killings and gender based violence portend for progress in this area? How do these long standing grievances meet the current moment of the impending Israeli annexation? What will be the long term impact of the pandemic on Jordan’s economy and human rights, especially for the country’s millions of refugees?

Speakers:

Laith Al Ajlouni: Political economist

Rana Husseini: Journalist, author, and human rights activist

Sara Kayyali: Syria researcher, Middle East and North Africa Division, Human Rights Watch

Oraib Al-Rantawi (moderator): Founder and director general, Al Quds Center for Political Studies


  • Why Did the United States Invade Iraq? A Conversation with Robert Draper | August 5, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Watch Here

The 2003 invasion of Iraq is one of the most debated, misunderstood, and consequential foreign policy episodes in modern U.S. history. In To Start a WarNew York Times bestselling author Robert Draper offers the definitive account of the march to war in Iraq.

Join us for a conversation between Robert Draper and Ambassador William J. Burns, former U.S. deputy secretary of state, about the war, its consequences, and its lessons.

Speakers:

Robert Draper: contributing writer to the New York Times Magazine and National Geographic and a correspondent to GQ

William J. Burns: President of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He previously served as U.S. deputy secretary of state.


  • Pakistan’s National Security Outlook | August 5, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM | United States Institute of Peace| Register Here

Join USIP for a conversation with Dr. Moeed Yusuf, Special Assistant to Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan on national security and strategic policy planning and a member of Pakistan’s coronavirus response team. The discussion will look at what these developments mean for Pakistan’s national security outlook towards its neighbors and its relationship with the U.S., as well as how the pandemic impacts Pakistan’s security and economic policy.

Speakers:

The Honorable Nancy Lindborgopening remarks: President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
 
Dr. Moeed Yusuf: Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on National Security and Strategic Policy Planning, Pakistan
Former Associate Vice President, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
 
Amb. Richard Olson (moderator): Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace and former Special Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan


  • After Qassem Suleimani: The Islamic Republic’s Strategy for the Arab World | August 6, 2020 | 10:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here

The January assassination of Qassem Soleimani shocked the leadership in Tehran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had not expected the United States to escalate tensions between the two countries in such a manner. The assassination of Soleimani was an effort to change Tehran’s strategic calculations and policies for the Middle East. With continued sanctions imposed by the United States, regional tension, and the loss of a key decision maker, Iran is facing intensified challenges to achieve its goals at home and in the region. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to welcome a group of experts to assess Iranian policy towards the Arab world following the death of Soleimani and to discuss how Arab states are reacting to Iran’s actions.

How has Iran’s strategy in the Arab world performed following Soleimani’s death? In what ways have proxy forces in the Middle East that operate under Tehran’s command been affected? Who is left to make key decisions about the Islamic Republic’s involvement in the Arab states, and are we faced with a weaker IRGC Quds force after Soleimani? Finally, what do Arabs think of Iranian policies aimed at them?

Speakers:

Tarek Osman: Author and broadcaster

Ariane Tabatabai: Middle East fellow, Alliance for Securing Democracy, German Marshall Fund of the United States

Morad Vaisibiame: Journalist and editor, Radio Farda, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Alex Vatanka (Moderator): Director, Iran program and senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI


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Stevenson’s army, July 20

– Politico has a long piece trying to show that SecDef Esper is stronger and more independent of Trump than earlier reports suggested. But it has mixed anonymous assessments from inside the Pentagon. It says NSA O’Brien is angling for the job. It says CJCS Milley is domineering over Esper.
– NYT has more on the whistleblower complaint against SecState Pompeo
– NYT excerpts a chapter from a new book about the Iraq war where Colin Powell tries to justify his UNSC testimony.
– NYT says lobbying is changing because of the coronavirus: they’re working mainly in home states rather than DC.  But they are working to get special interest provisions in the next pandemic relief bill.
– Former cyber official makes the case against a WH Cyber Czar.
Stay cool. Look at the Celsius temps not Fahrenheit.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Protest rises across the Middle East

“Today we are witnessing not only Lebanon and Iraq’s powerful protest movements calling for greater rights and an end to corruption, but also solidarity movements in Palestine and Syria supporting the Black Lives Matter movement in the United States. What common goals are shared by protest movements across the Middle East? What lessons can the civil resistance currently surging in the United States learn from social movements and activism in the Middle East, and vice versa? What impact has COVID-19 had on ongoing protests in Lebanon and Iraq?” On June 24, the Middle East Institute held an online discussion on protests and solidarity movements in states throughout the Middle East. The event was moderated by Zahra Hakir and featured four guest speakers:

Zahra Hankir (Moderator): Freelance journalist and author, Our Women on the Ground: Essays by Arab Women Reporting from the Arab World

Zahra Ali: Assistant Professor of Sociology, Rutgers University-Newark

Ahmed Abu Artema: Palestinian journalist and peace activist

Razan Ghazzawi: Doctoral candidate, University of Sussex

Lokman Slim: Director, Hayya Bina and UMAM

Iraq 

Ali believes that the protests that have occurred across Iraq since October 2019 symbolize an unprecedented attempt by ordinary Iraqis to change the course of their nation’s contemporary history. In Tahrir Square in Baghdad, activists occupy the streets and have begun to provide free educational and cultural services to Iraqi citizens. Through their work, these activists have developed new codes of conduct that question traditional conceptions of gender norms. Ali believes that the US invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003 engendered divisions along sectarian lines. To protesters in Iraq, resentment against these divisions lay at the heart of their dismay.

Syria

Ghazzawi highlights that recent protests in Daraa, Idlib, Afrin, Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and Suwayda arose following the imposition of new political and socio-economic realities by the Syrian state, Russia, Iran, and Turkey. The demand to release detained protesters has uniformly resonated throughout protests across Syria. Ghazzawi believes that these protests challenge previous analysis of essentialist notions of sectarianism in Syria. In addition, Ghazzawi finds these protests to be significant in the way in which they challenge authoritiarian, colonial, and partition geography. The protests require one to think beyond the model of the Syrian state vis-à-vis the opposition.

Solidarity with BLM in Palestinian Territories

There is a history of solidarity between the cause of Palestinian liberation and Black social justice movements. Abu Artema highlights the recent development of solidarity movements in the Palestinian Territories with the Black Lives Matter movement and protests against the death of George Floyd. Abu Artema stresses that in expressing solidarity with the Black Lives Matter movement, Palestinians have simultaneously protested against instances of aggression by Israeli soldiers.

Lebanon

Slim underscores that the rise of anti-establishment protests in Lebanon has surpassed sectarian lines. Similar to Iraq, Lebanon remains plagued by the ramifications of sectarian divisions. Because of the economic collapse and the failure of the Lebanese healthcare system amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, protests in Lebanon have increased in intensity. To Slim, these protests have exposed growing dislike for Hezbollah among Lebanese citizens, who associate the group with Lebanon’s corrupt government. Furthermore, the enactment of the United States Caesar Civilian Protection Act may have deleterious consequences for Hezbollah, which has backed the Assad-regime throughout the Syrian Civil War.

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