Tag: Iraq
Stevenson’s army, November 18
– NYT has a trove of leaked Iranian intelligence reports showing its activities in Iraq.
– Inside Iran, the government has blocked the internet.
– China is criticizing US moves in South China Sea.
– US believes China recruits its overseas students as spies.
– Columnist suggests selling B-21 to Australia.
– NBC says Trump is angry at Pompeo.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 12
– The Atlantic examines changing views of military officers on staying apolitical.
– There’s also an article quoting retired generals who have criticized Trump.
– FP says SecDef Esper is gaining influence.
-Politico has more details on NSA O’Brien’s efforts to downsize the NSC staff.
– Which Dan Drezner says doesn’t matter.
– Pence effect? Politico says Trump wants to condition US aid on religious liberty.
– WOTR has ideas on how to solve Iraq’s political-military crisis.
– NYT has long backgrounder on Ukraine impeachment testimony.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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What next?
In addition to today’s post on the Iraqi protests, I would recommend Rend Al-Rahim’s appearance on NPR this morning as well as my own appearance Monday with Namo Abdulla, Raed Jarrar, and Mazin Al-Eshaiker on CGTN’s The Heat, available below for your listening and watching pleasures. Bottom line: the likelihood of some sort of authoritarian takeover, by coup or martial law, is increasing dramatically:
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Iraq explodes
Escalating Protests
The current protests in Iraq have been the bloodiest since 2003, with over 300 people killed and thousands injured. The October protesters started off demanding services, but quickly escalated to broader grievances against the Prime Minister, his cabinet, and the Iraqi democratic system as a whole. These protests should not be a surprise to the Iraqi government nor the international community. The government has been eroding for 16 years. Layers of grievances have led to the current protests.
President Barham Salih has said Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi will resign once the political parties pick a replacement, but it’s highly unlikely this would quell protests. The demonstrations are not backed by, nor do they back, any political party. There is no leadership for the government to negotiate with. Ideas, demands, and slogans are being churned out. The basic demand is for an upheaval of the political system.
Underlying Issues to Broader Instability
Two years after the fall of ISIS, Iraq is still unstable. The government lacks the ability to meet the basic needs of its citizens. An estimated $160-$275 billion is needed to rebuild, but a mix of mismanaged resources and corrupt politicians has left the country with vital infrastructure still destroyed, high levels of unemployment, and a lack of services, especially in health and education. Despite having the world’s fourth largest oil reserves, Iraq’s cities face frequent power cuts, making life unbearable for many. The only option separate from the national power grid is to purchase electricity from privately owned generators, but that is unaffordable for most Iraqis.
There are still roughly 1.67 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in post-ISIS Iraq. Most of those who could voluntarily move back to their place of origin have likely already done so, yet authorities are closing and consolidating IDP camps, causing conditions in the remaining ones to deteriorate.
Civil documentation is a major barrier to IDPs re-integrating into communities as well as returning home to their places of origin. Strict Iraqi laws make life difficult for an estimated 80,000 families, who lack legal documentation. Without proper paperwork, these Iraqis lose access to available public goods and freedom of movement. Although international aid is provided to IDPs, it is not nearly enough for them and other Iraqis in dire need of basic commodities. Corrupt politicians take the money for themselves. The mishandling of IDPs adds to the perception that the Iraqi government is corrupt and ineffective.
The Islamic State remains a serious threat for both Iraq and Syria. ISIS fighters have moved into the valley of a remote mountainous region in northern Iraq that is not patrolled by either the Kurdish peshmerga or the Iraqi army. This allows them free movement, mainly at night, and the ability to go to local cities, farms, and villages to shake down the population and extract resources. Currently, there are only a few hundred ISIS militants in the area at most, but it could be the beginning of a new territorial caliphate if they are able to consolidate power and create a base for nearby sleeper cells to flock to.
What’s Next?
The Prime Minister has lost the support of Iraqi students, unions, and even the army. It is difficult to predict what will happen in coming weeks, but the protests have continuously increased in size and intensity, a trend that will likely endure. The government has lost the confidence of the Iraqi people. Replacing current politicians will not address the grievances protestors have. A new mandate is needed to move forward and reestablish Iraq.
Iraq exploding with a wide range of problems that could push the government over the edge at any moment. A military coup by either the Iraqi army or the Iranian backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) is a possibility, but how will the people respond to rule by either as both have used unnecessary force against the protesters? Civil conflict would be devastating for Iraq and could be the perfect opportunity for ISIS to reestablish its caliphate.
The protests are not going to just disappear. The Iraqi people will continue to persist despite the violent reactions from security forces. There seem to be no “good” options for Iraq now and in the immediate future.
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Stevenson’s army November 5
– Russia is sending mercenaries to Libya.
– With US absent, rest of Asia looks to trade deals with China.
– Tariff rollbacks likely part of US-China trade agreement.
– NYT says Pompeo “in peril,” losing trust at State.
– NYT has deeper look at Iraqi protests against Iran.
– The most important presidential election news: NYT poll shows Trump strong in battleground states; 2/3 of Trump 2016 and Dem 2018 voters say they’ll vote for Trump in 2020.
– Departing official criticizes Trump Syria policy.
– Former officials argue realists wrong about Syria.
– Academics say Trump quid pro quos aren’t normal.
– WaPo says many migrants are funded by microfinance programs.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 4
Fred Kaplan has a savage critique of Jim Mattis and his new memoir.
On this 40th anniversary of the seizure of the US embassy in Tehran, Iraqi protesters are threatening a Iranian consulate. Max Boot offers some analysis.
Boris Johnson is blocking a parliamentary report on Russian interference in Brexit vote.
NYT says Federal officials are investigating numerous Chinese thefts of US biomedical research
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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