Tag: Iraq
No sword dancing on treacherous terrain
President Biden’s op/ed in the Washington Post previews his visit next week to the Middle East. He will stop in Jerusalem, the West Bank, Jeddah (for a regional Arab meeting), and Riyadh. The piece has two audiences: the domestic one and the international one, especially in the Middle East but also in Europe and the Far East.
What the Americans want
There are four salient issues for Biden’s domestic audience: the Iran nuclear deal, support for Israel, oil prices, and human rights. America is split on the Iran nuclear deal. Half support Biden’s desire to re-enter it. The other half want to continue the so far unsuccessful effort to sanction Iran into submission, with the possibility of military action if that fails. On support for Israel’s security, there is overwhelming support. But Americans increasingly want accountability for Israeli abuses against Palestinians. Biden avoids that subject in the op/ed.
Most Americans want lower oil prices. Saudi Arabia has been reluctant to increase production, partly in retaliation for Biden’s criticism of human rights practices in the Kingdom, particularly the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. That is not a dinnertime conversation topic in the US. But there are many informed voices calling for accountability beyond the minimum the Saudis have so far done.
What the world wants: nuclear deal and Iran’s regional power projection
The rest of the world has a somewhat different set of priorities: not only Iran’s nuclear program but also its regional power projection as well as oil prices. Beyond the US, there is little concern for Israel’s security or human rights, apart from the plight of the Palestinians.
Most of the world would like to see the Iran nuclear deal operating once again. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have not, despite the risks to them of war if Israel or the US seeks to destroy the Iranian nuclear facilities. Biden should be aiming to understand their perspective better. My guess is they would be fine with re-entry into nuclear deal provided the US pushes back harder on Iran’s regional power projection.
That could mean doing more to weaken the Houthis in Yemen. It could also mean reducing Iran’s presence in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its proxies are major players. Strengthening the nascent regional air defense system (see video above) or even Saudi entry into the Ibrahimic accords are other possibilities.
What the world wants: oil prices and Palestinians
On oil prices, the Saudis may seek some assurances on the downside while the Americans push for increased production. Europe and the Far East will wish the Americans success. Russia, Iran, Iraq, and other major producers will want prices to remain above $100 per barrel. That is what they all need to balance their budgets. No American president can promise sustained high oil prices. But the US is now a net oil and gas exporter. A nod to stability in the oil market is not out of the question.
While Biden will visit the West Bank, he has so far done little more than restore aid to the Palestinians President Trump had zeroed out. The op/ed fails to mention the two-state solution or Israeli responsibility for human rights abuses against Palestinians. It doesn’t even mention the rumored intention to re-open the US consulate in Jerusalem. That had acted for decades before Trump as a de facto embassy to Palestine. We can only hope Biden will be more forthcoming on those issues during his trip.
Treacherous terrain
The Middle East is treacherous terrain for any American president. Trump blundered by sword dancing with the Saudis, both literally and figuratively. He also wrote the Israelis a blank check (including for their territorial ambitions) and ended support for the Palestinians. Biden won’t commit those mistakes. He will try to build on the Ibrahimic accords that Trump initiated, strengthen and unify Arab defenses against Iran, and reach some sort of accommodation on oil production and prices. Odds are the trip will not be a brilliant success, but the ambitions are at least more realistic than his predecessor’s.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, June 14
Charlie isn’t the only one distracted. I’ve been failing to post while vacationing with extended family in Asheville, NC. He writes today:
I haven’t forgotten you. I’ve been busy and the news isn’t very newsworthy. Mostly more of the same — in Ukraine, where Russian artillery is laying waste the land they want to seize; in NATO, where Turkey is still a roadblock to Sweden and Finland; in the Pacific, where US & China are trading angry words. At least in Congress, there’s the drama of the Jan. 6 hearings.
Some other items: Chaos in Iraqi politics.
– WSJ says some former Afghan officials are living the high life.
– WOTR gives good reasons not to ignore Africa.
– And SAIS Resident Fellow James Mann says a new book about the founder of the John Birch society has lessons for how the GOP might deal with Donald Trump.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, March 24
– Remembering Madeleine Albright, first female secretary of state, whom I first knew when she worked for Sen. Muskie and on whose Policy Planning Staff I was privileged to serve.
– NYT says NSC set up Tiger Team to game responses to Ukraine.
– Politico details arms from many countries to Ukraine.
– Bill Arkin explains Russian air operations in Ukraine.
– Task & Purpose says CIA agents were in Iraq before US invasion.
– Paul PIllar says Revolutionary Guard doesn’t belong on terrorist list.
– AIPAC supports election deniers.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, January 17
– How many wars are we in today? I just discovered the latest Biden administration report to Congress under the war powers resolution, which was sent on Pearl Harbor Day. It say US troops equipped for combat have been sent to 16 countries, no longer counting Afghanistan.
– I also found on the White House news site a list of the extraordinary outreach the administration claims to have made to forestall Russian action in Ukraine.
– The WH also has a new briefing on cybersecurity matters.
– CBO has a new report questioning the accuracy of Pentagon reports on aircraft readiness. I worked on this issue myself in the 1970s and know the DOD tendency to define problems away.
– CRS has recent reports on the use of defense contractors, general and historically in Iraq and Afghanistan.
– Though I still support the Senate filibuster [and would like some changes to make its use harder and less frequent] I wanted to share Norm Ornstein’s latest article.
– Over the holidays, I delved into the question of why Hitler chose to declare on war with America on December 11, 1941. I read Klaus Schmider’s book, which argues that Hitler’s decision came in that short period before the attack on the USSR clearly had stalled, when Japan needed reassurance of the alliance, and when the naval conflict in the Atlantic seemed low cost. I see the NYT Book Review discusses the new Simms and Laderman book, saying it argues that Hitler acted preemptively, expecting the war to come anyway. I look forward to reading it, too. I think it’s always important to realize that major strategic decisions often are highly contingent on the particular circumstances at the particular time.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, November 16
– NYT has a report on the Biden-Xi discussions as well as an analysis with insider comments.
– NBC reports drone strike at Iraqi PM likely came from militias, not Iran.
– WSJ reports secret Chinese purchase of Italian drone maker.
– US criticizes Russian anti-satellite test.
– Jeff Schogol hits DOD failures to admit errors.
And WOTR has a sad but too often true story of military weapon design and procurement — in this case the Littoral Combat Ship.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, November 7
– Failed assassination attempt by drone against Iraqi PM.
– Central Asian countries crack down on social media.
– New bills change legal issues for war powers.
– CRS report explains what’s in Continuing Resolution law.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
RSS - Posts
