Tag: ISIS
Stevenson’s army, January 4
–The Hill says GOP may give Trump an effective veto over any border security legislation, thus jeopardizing any Ukraine-Israel-border package.
-Punchbowl says House GOP now wants to tie border issue to government funding fight, making shutdown more possible after Jan 17.
– New poll says 25% believe FBI instigated Jan 6 attacks.
– WaPo debunks Trump claim about Jan 6 Guard troops
– US says Iran blasts may have come from ISIS groups, not Israel
– WSJ says DOD wants drone bases in West Africa
-WSJ says Russia will buy Iranian missiles
-In FT, sanctions expert warns against seizing Russian assets.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Arab rebellion in eastern Syria
Former Syrian diplomat Bassam Barabandi writes, prompted by the current Arab rebellion against Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) rule in Deir ez-Zur:
Insincerity has consequences
The way the current US administration deals with the Arab world is controversial and confusing. On the one hand, senior American officials visit Arab countries and confirm the strategic relationship that binds Washington with these countries as well as the need for Iran to stop its policy aimed at instability in the region. Then they give Iran access to more than 10 billion dollars, knowing that part of it will be used against countries that Washington claims to be its allies.
Washington claims that it supports human rights, democracy, and transparency, and then allows its Kurdish Communist allies (PKK) in Syria to use American weapons to bomb Arab civilians who demand justice and trust American values.
Washington should be aware that American policy and actions are being analyzed, studied, and built upon by all countries and peoples. The result is an irreparable loss in credibility and sincerity.
False claims
In Deir ez-Zur, the SDF is trying to attach three accusations to the movement of the Arab tribes:
- SDF claims the Arabs launched their movement for the sake of a militia leader named Abu Khawla, but the truth is that Abu Khawla is the creation of the SDF. No one rebelled because of him, but rather because of the repressive and corrupt practices of the SDF. The Arab clans are the ones who demanded the dismissal of Abu Khawla when the SDF supported him.
- The SDF claims the region supports ISIS, but in fact the Arab clans fought ISIS before the formation of the anti-ISIS coalition and the emergence of the SDF. ISIS has killed thousands of Arab clansmen. The clans themselves have been at the forefront in the fight against ISIS, including under the leadership of the coalition.
- SDF claims the clans cooperate with the regime and the Iranians, but it is the SDF that deals with the regime and says its relations with Iran are good. The people of Deir ez-Zur liberated the region from the regime and have continued to fight it since mid-2012. It is the Arab youth who fight the Iranian militias. The regime has destroyed large parts of the province in retaliation.
The US needs to act
The US government should intervene to solve the problems in Deir ez-Zur. The continuation of the conflict there is not in the interest of anyone except Iran, Russia, and the Syrian regime, which is working to fuel it with all the means available. The silence of the Department of Defense and Centcom’s Operation Inherent Resolve will not help.
Steps required from the US side, to help it return to its mission:
- Change all the leaders of the SDF/PKK in the Deir ez-Zur region, because they are the cause of the problems.
- Call for a general meeting of the representatives of the people of the region, including sheikhs, notables, and intellectuals, to listen to the people’s demands directly. The purpose of the meeting would be to find a new administrative, economic, and military mechanism for Al-Deir that meets the demands of the people without interference from the SDF or its cadres.
- Avoid dealing with Arabs the SDF nominates.
- Investigate whether the SDF has used US weapons in the commission of war crimes in Deir ez-Zur.
The Department of State delegation that visited the area last weekend failed to meet any of the real local representatives. The SDF launched a massive attack in the wake of the meeting, which confirms that the mission failed.
The SDF needs to act too
The SDF cannot continue in its current direction. It needs to
- Release Deir ez-Zur people from 21 SDF detention centers.
- Change its media discourse, which constantly accuses the people of Deir ez-Zur people of being criminals, agents, and smugglers.
- Allow International human rights organizations to enter Deir ez-Zur under the protection of US forces to investigate the war crimes.
Deir ez-Zur is a test for the US
The US is currently trying to negotiate a “mega-deal” with Saudi Arabia and Israel that will have to give something to the Palestinians. But the same US Administration has failed to stop SDF/PKK killing of Arabs in Deir ez-Zur. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas should test any US offer by asking the US officials to listen to the Arab demands in northeast Syria. He should want to see if the Americans can deliver before moving one step further.
At the end of the day, the US forces will leave Syria and the Kurds and the Arabs will stay. Helping the two indigenous communities to find common ground will pay dividends to the US in the long term.
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Stevenson’s army, April 23
-NYT keeps updating reports of evacuations from Sudan.
– WaPo says leaks show ISIS strength in Afghanistan.
– AP explains difficulties in ramping up artillery production.
– Politico tells how Russia is chairing UNSC.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, July 12
– The House takes up the NDAA this week, with over 1200 amendments filed.
– GOP resists Democratic proposals for increased aid to UN to counter China.
– Big LDP win foreshadows revisions to Japan’s constitution.
– US says Iran is shipping drones to Russia.
– Putin goes to Tehran for meetings including Turkey.
– WSJ says US is working to reform WTO.
– WaPo says ISIS planned attacks in Western Europe.
– NYT sees Ukraine war turning into test of stamina.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The time to remember has come
My esteemed Middle East Institute colleagues Paul Salem and Brian Katulis have set a low bar for President Biden’s trip to the Middle East this week. They want him to send a signal of renewed diplomatic commitment to the region.
There’s a hitch
It’s an important objective, but there is a hitch. It is the signs of reduced US commitment that have incentivized many improvements in relations among Middle Eastern countries. This is clear in Yemen. The current ceasefire came about in part because of US reluctance to continue supporting Saudi efforts to counter the Houthis. Iraq’s current role mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia would be inconceivable if the Americans hadn’t withdrawn most of their forces. The wars in Syria are calming partly because the Americans have mostly withdrawn. The remainder are limiting action exclusively to the Islamic State and Al Qaeda.
Israel’s newfound ambition to help guard Arab Gulf security is also a consequence of reduced American commitment. The Ibrahim/Abraham accords that President Trump initiated essentially trade Arab recognition for Israeli security assistance. The Arab Gulf monarchies regard that as better than American help. The Israelis don’t demand respect for human rights. Spyware and air defense have proven attractive propositions. Diplomatic recognition hasn’t proven costly to the Arab states that have done it so far (UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco), but the Saudis have hesitated.
And a fly in the Saudi ointment
That’s because of the fly in the ointment. Israel is refusing not only to make peace with the Palestinians but even to accept two states as the basis for a future peace. Israel’s current ambitions are clear: to keep the Golan Heights and all of Jerusalem as well as many of the settlements on the West Bank. The Palestinians would then get only a “state-minus.” That would lack not only an army but sovereign control over its very limited territory. Israel’s attitude is unlikely to change, even after its next election. Prime Minister Netanyahu is gone, but not his singular accomplishment: killing the spirit of Oslo.
Plus an elephant in the room
The elephant in the room is Iran. Negotiations for re-entry into the Iran nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) are faltering. If they fail, Iran will have the option within a year of producing enough enriched uranium to make several atomic bombs. Attacks on its nuclear facilities and personnel would only delay the inevitable, perhaps by years but more likely by months. They would also give Tehran reason to attack the Gulf states, either directly or through proxies.
The situation will improve only marginally if the JCPOA is revived. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will then use sanctions relief to reinvigorate their proxy military interventions in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. That is precisely what the Gulf states don’t want.
Diplomacy>military
Paul and Brian rightly underline the good things American diplomacy could try to do: improve governance, encourage regional de-escalation and integration, and build civilian ties to the United States, both with citizens and institutions. But Washington has proven inept so far at beefing up diplomatic efforts once the troops are gone. Witness Iraq, where a mostly civilian-focused strategic framework agreement has languished after the military withdrawal. As Chas Freeman pointed out years ago, our diplomats have forgotten diplomacy without force. The time to remember has come.
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Stevenson’s army, February 11
– WaPo has ticktock on ISIS leader raid.
– Military complains of distracting calls from WH & Congress on behalf of individuals seeking to flee Afghanistan.
– NYT has good background on Canadian trucker protests.
– Politico China newsletter tells how China is a political issue in coming elections
– David Ignatius complains about political infighting in Ukraine.
– FP says BJP is pushing hijab ban for votes in India.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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