Tag: Israel
Stevenson’s army, March 26
– NYT says Asia is gearing for war.
– WaPo sees “five families” in the House GOP.
-Reuters sees US-China fight over undersea cables.
– NYT analyzes Biden-Netanyahu disagreements.
-Poli sci study funds independent redistricting commissions lead to 2.25 times as many competitive districts. Hooray!
– Conservative prof wants to change GOP primary system. Intriguing ideas.
– Marine reservist sees legal opportunity to expand “1202 authorities.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 24
– US retaliates after deadly drone strike in Syria.
– US complained to Israel about new law.
– Dan Drezner warns about Taiwan dilemmas, citing this article.
– CSIS study sees Chinese pressure ineffective. Here’s that report.
– WSJ says – Ukraine trouble getting troops.
-Canada doesn’t want to take lead in Haiti.
– Blinken refuses to declassify dissent cable.
– RollCall finds less party unity in House, more in Senate last year.
– Senate is taking up AUMF repeal, but look at Politico’s list of amendments:
Here’s a quick rundown of amendment to expect in the Senate next week on the AUMF:
- Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) amendment would empower “the President to use force against forces of Iran, a state responsible for conducting and directing attacks against United States forces in the Middle East and to take actions for the purpose of ending Iran’s escalation of attacks on, and threats to, United States interests.”
- Sen. Ron Johnson’s (R-Wis.) amendment would require Senate approval for any World Health Organization convention or agreement or treaty.
- Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-Fla.) amendment would create a joint select committee to look into the United States/Afghanistan withdrawal in 2021.
- Sen. Pete Ricketts’ (R-Neb.) amendment would require the president to certify “that Iraq, Israel,and other United States partners and allies in the region have been meaningfully consulted on the ramifications of repeal.”
- Sen. Dan Sullivan’s (R-Alaska) amendment ensures that the AUMF repeal won’t impact the effectiveness of U.S. response to Iran.
- Sen. Josh Hawley’s (R-Mo.) amendment would appoint an inspector general to oversee Ukraine aid.
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Stevenson’s army, March 11
– Chinese diplomacy secures Saudi-Iranian rapprochement.
– Some analyses.
– WSJ says China also winning in South China Sea.
– Lawfare piece sees mild congressional restraints on use of force.
– SAIS profs Barno & Bensahel analyze US military recruiting problems.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 10
– Alerted by FT’s John Thornhill, I want to share the UK Defence Ministry’s commissioned Sci-Fi stories to help think about future warfare.
– Lithuanian intelligence says Russia can fight two more years at current pace in Ukraine.
– NYT reveals what Saudis want from US in return for normalizing relations with Israel.
– There still aren’t many budget details for defense and foreign policy. Defense News has this summary.
– And Indopacom has leaked its wish list.
– Politico notes European differences over China.
– Max Boot confesses he has been wrong about foreign policy.
– WaPo earlier had interesting maps about US & Ukraine.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 7
– Atlantic cover story warns of extremist violence in US
– WSJ begins series arguing US isn’t ready for great power conflict.
– Chinese blast US — Xi himself; and the foreign minister.
– At Taipei request, McCarthy will meet Taiwanese leader in California.
–Dissent against Netanyahu in Israeli military.
– NYT magazine tells of Chinese spy operation.
– Lawfare has favorable review of new cybersecurity policy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Trump is history, Trumpism is not
Donald Trump has embarked on a massive campaign to monetize his presidency. It is not only the NFT playing cardsj. It is also Truth Social (his social media site that caters to right-wing white supremacy and other extremisms), the political funds he collects for challenging election results and supporting extemist candidates (but spends mostly on himself and his family), and the millions his Gulfie friends are loaning him and investing in his golf courses. Most of this will fail, like his much-vaunted steaks. But he’ll come out enriched, which is ultimately the only purpose he is serious about.
He needs the cash
He is going to need the money. His company has already been convicted of tax fraud. He faces more or less a dozen other investigations. Several of which seem close to bringing charges against him. Today the House committee investigating the January 6 attack on The Capitol will recommend that the Justice Department bring serious, unprecedented criminal charges against Trump. He is a cheapskate when it comes to hiring lawyers and stiffs many of them. But even two or three indictments will generate enormous legal bills. Not to mention the likelihood that his tax cheating will end with hundreds of millions in penalties.
No he won’t be president again
No, this man is not going to be President of the United States again. He has led his party into three losing elections: 2018, 2020, and 2022. What loyal GOPer would want to see a fourth? A large part of the Republican Party is already abandoning him, including Senate Minority Leader McConnell and lots of other members of Congress. Those who aren’t are mostly extremist flakes and committed thieves. Americans are looking for compromise, not further polarization. Serious money and media will steer clear. Florida Governor De Santis is already beating Trump in the polls. He won’t be the only serious contender.
But the alternatives are all tainted
But De Santis, Texas Governor Greg Abbott, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, former Vice President Mike Pence and others are all tainted with Trumpism. Of the top 10, the Washington Post lists only New Hampshire Governor Sununu as leaning hard against Trump. Whoever is nominated (it won’t be Sununu) will have to satisfy the Trump wing of the party. It will turn out for the primaries while many more moderate people stay home. The Trumpians want to block immigration, make voting more difficult, reduce constraints on police violence, cut taxes for the wealthy, ban abortion and gay marriage, challenge election results, and prevent the government from taking necessary public health measures.
American elections are not predictable
These are not positions the American public generally supports. But there is nevertheless no predicting the outcome of the 2024, any more than there was in 2022. There is a large part of the electorate that votes not on particular issues, but rather on the “direction” of the country. Concern about the future direction of American democracy gave the Democrats an edge this year, compared to what would normally be expected in a mid-term election with the economy in trouble, high inflation, and the President under 50% approval. Who knows how the economy and American democracy will be faring in 2024?
Some continuity in foreign policy
Does any of this make a difference to foreign policy, which after all is the main concern of peacefare.net? We don’t really know, though there are indications within the Republican Party that support for Ukraine, NATO, and especially the EU is soft, sympathy with Russia rampant, enthusiasm for Netanyahu’s Israel and Mohammed bin Salman’s Saudi Arabia higher than in the Biden Administration, and hostility to Xi Jinping’s China marginally stronger.
That said, there has been a good deal of continuity in foreign policy between Trump and Biden, on Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, and even China, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. It isn’t easy to pursue a pro-democracy foreign policy in the Middle East, or in China for that matter. Whether that signals a return to bipartisan foreign policy “at the water’s edge” is not yet clear. Trumpism will have to be thoroughly obliterated for that to happen. But it could happen.
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