Tag: Israel
Stevenson’s army, November 7
Warning: election results may be a long time coming. RollCall notes that floor maneuvers could delay organizing the new House.
The polls are suspect this year [only 1% response rates lately] and quite close for Senate tossup seats. Nate Cohn is right to see 4 possibilities.
Reuters notes growing opposition to machines.
GOP lawsuits oppose mail-in ballots.
The Hill speculates on a GOP House and defense.
In other news: SAIS wins Space Force training role.
Lawfare compares Biden and Trump NSS
WaPo says administration has urged Zelensky to be open to peace talks.
Jake Sullivan has secret contacts with Russia.
Israeli elections could affect US defense relations.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
The Iran enigma post-November 8
I am no expert on Iran. I’ve never even visited. But it is an important country that interests me. So let me review what I perceive of its current situation, subject of course to correction by those more knowledgeable.
Widespread protests
The protests are widespread. The initial impetus for the demonstrations was the death of a Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, whose hijab was supposedly not worn correctly. It allegedly did not cover all of her hair. She died after physical abuse in police custody.
This triggered the current wave of protests, which have retained a focus on women’s rights. But they also have a distinct political direction. Some are calling for an end to the Islamic Republic, with slogans that focus on the Supreme Leader (“down with the dictator!”).
The regime has responded with violence against the protesters, killing something like 250, arresting thousands, and injuring many more. Demonstrations and regime violence have been particularly intense in Iranian Kurdistan.
Iran’s economic situation is not a focus of the demonstrations, but it is certainly a contributing factor. Suffering from both international sanctions and internal mismanagement, many Iranians are impoverished while regime supporters thrive. The contrast is glaring.
Power projection
Even as it tussles with domestic unrest, the Islamic Republic is increasing its power projection abroad. Iran joined in OPEC+’s decision to maintain high oil prices as the world economy declines. It is helping Russia use Iranian drones in the Ukraine war and mobilizing forces on the border with Azerbaijan. Tehran has maintained support for Syrian President Assad and continued its assistance to the Houthis in Yemen.
The JCPOA is at risk
These are fairly low-cost operations in financial terms, but they are high-impact in political terms. They signal a growing alignment with Russia, which also wants to maintain oil prices, supports Assad, and favors Armenia in its conflict with Azerbaijan. The EU, which has a mediating role at the nuclear talks, has imposed new sanctions on Iran because of its drone exports to Russia.
Iran’s current power projection also signals disinterest in renewing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (aka Iran nuclear deal). The repression inside Iran and power projection in the region and Ukraine make it difficult for the Biden Administration to revive the JCPOA even after the November 8 election.
Failure to renew the JCPOA will leave Iran free to continue to enrich uranium to levels needed for nuclear weapons. It is already at the nuclear threshold. It could also ignite a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Turkish President Erdogan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have both stated that they will pursue nuclear weapons if more countries in the region do.
Uncertainties are unsettling
Some hope that the demonstrations will collapse the regime and lead to one that does not pursue nuclear weapons. But hope is not a policy. The relevant timeframe is short. Iran could have the material it needs for a nuclear weapon within 6 months if the JCPOA is not renewed. No one can be sure the demonstrators will succeed. Nor can we be sure the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will not dominate a successor regime. That could lead to an accelerated nuclear program.
If Iran does gain the fissile material needed for nuclear weapons, it will likely want to maintain ambiguity about whether it has actually made them or intends to deploy them. This would mirror the Israeli stance, which has been successful in reducing awareness of its wepons and protests against its nuclear power status. But Iranian adoption of such an ambiguous stance would introduce one more uncertainty into the Middle East.
The Iran enigma
Iran presents a puzzling problem for Washington. Renewal of the JCPOA is certainly the best currently available answer to the nuclear issue. The demonstrations give some hope for internally-generated regime change. But even that would not guarantee a non-nuclear Iran. Meanwhile, the current regime’s commitment to power projection abroad and violent repression of the demonstrations makes JCPOA renewal difficult.
It will be interesting to see how the Biden Adminstration solves the Iran puzzle once the November 8 election is over.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, October 17
– Mail-in voting rules may affect midterms.
– 28% of election-denier candidates are veterans, War Horse reports.
– Intercept reports on AIPAC election efforts.
– Belarus may be next Russian front, WSJ reports.
– Hill says Russia may conduct pre-election cyber attacks.
Charlie added later:
These can’t wait until Tuesday:
– New Yorker has excellent article on evolution of US support to Ukraine’s military.
– WSJ says US wants to keep B-52s in service.
– Max Boot says Israel-Lebanon agreement is a big win for Biden.
– Alice Hunt Friend says we don’t have standards on how civilians are supposed to do civ-mil relations.
– FP article details how JFK lied about Adlai Stevenson and the Cuba missile deal.
– National Security Archive has more on this.
A question for you: when did YOU learn that JFK had lied and actually made the Turkish missile removal part of the deal?
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, August 30
-WaPo says Ukraine has been using decoys to attract some Russian missiles.
-Le Monde says Russians are tuning out Moscow TV
– Former lawyer for NSA explains damage from Trump classification practices.
-Axios says Mossad chief is coming to DC with views on Iran nuclear deal.
– Retiring AP reporter tells how Congress has changed.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, August 24
– WaPo has the third in its series of major articles on the Ukraine war, this about the battle for Kyiv. Here’s the takeaway article.-
– AP says US to announce today $3 Billion more aid to Ukraine, but it doesn’t use presidential drawdown authority, so deliveries will be slow.
-AP has latest on Iran nuclear deal, but also reports Israeli opposition.
Armed Forces and Society, the premier journal on civil-military relations, has just released an excellent special issue on the war in Afghanistan.
– Among the analyses: Risa Brooks says COIN didn’t work given the ethnic groups and tribes. Ori Swed says contractors weren’t properly used. Don Travis says the Afghans were improperly trained. Will Atkins of USAFA says the US military followed Huntington’s ideas and shouldn’t have. And there’s more…
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, August 6
– WOTR has a piece on military innovation, mainly about the army, but with excellent links to a wide range of writing on the subject.-
– Prof. Brands has a new book on “the coming conflict with China,” and WSJ has an excerpt.
– US strengthened defense ties with Philippines.
– NYT has background on Xi’s thinking about security.
– Politico sees multiple factors explaining Stevens/Levin contest, not just Israel.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
RSS - Posts
