Tag: Israel
Stevenson’s army, September 15
-An American think tank has a new revealing poll of attitudes toward foreign policy. More reassuring than dramatic.
– New data on how much dark money there is in US politics. More details at opensecrets.org.
-Military Times has helpful list of upcoming hearings.
– WaPo reports Israeli concerns about F-35 sale to UAE. [Note: this issue will come up in next week’s exercise.]– Putin & Lukashenko discuss “integration.“
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Landslide is the only solution
Bob Woodward’s confirmation that President Trump lied about the seriousness of Covid19 is no surprise. Anyone with a functioning brain knows that by now. But getting the admission on tape, along with the fact that the source of some of the information on contagiousness of the virus was Chinese President Xi, was a journalistic coup. It would have been even more so had Woodward published it earlier, but he claims he wanted to save it for his book because that afforded him the longer form to provide fuller context. It also of course helps him market his product.
In a rational world, Woodward’s revelation would end Trump’s ability to market himself. His “playing down” the virus cost more something like 150,000 lives, so far. Shutdowns, masks and social distancing earlier and more consistently would have saved about that many. People are still dying as a result of Trump’s neglect of the most important Presidential responsibility: to protect Americans. This appalling dereliction of duty has had real world consequences.
It is hard for me to imagine how anyone could vote for a President who did such a thing. His achievements are easy to list: appointing supposedly conservative but too often unqualified judges, a massive tax cut for the rich, and validation of white nationalism as a political force in the United States. His failures, in addition to his mendacious response to Covid19, take longer:
- Inability to cope with social justice protests in a productive way and encouragement of violence and threats of violence against peaceful protesters.
- A collapsed economy that even before the epidemic was growing no faster than in President Obama’s last three years.
- A ballooning budget deficit, again even before the epidemic hit.
- Unfounded attacks on the right to vote.
- Repeated efforts to deprive millions of Americans of the health insurance they obtained from Obamacare, without providing an alternative.
- Failure in the trade war with China, which has cost the US government many billions in agricultural and other subsidies to offset the export losses due to tariffs.
- Accelerated Iranian progress towards nuclear weapons, entirely due to Trump’s withdrawal of the US from the nuclear deal.
- North Korean refusal to give up their nuclear weapons, despite offers of massive economic assistance.
- Consolidation of President Maduro’s power in Venezuela.
Trump wants you to think that withdrawal of a few thousand troops from Iraq and Afghanistan as well as the Israel/UAE deal were big achievements. Far from it: the US still has more troops in the greater Middle East than before he took office. The UAE/Israel deal only contributes to peace between two countries who have never been at war and have precious little reason to fight. It makes an Israel/Palestine deal more difficult, not less.
Even before the latest headlines, Jeffrey Goldberg had assembled the evidence of Trump’s disdain for the American military. That, too, was well-known to anyone paying attention to Trump’s mythical bonespurs and his public denunciation of John McCain, but the things Trump has said in private about the troops being “losers” and “suckers” compounded what some might have hoped to dismiss as misdemeanors into felonies. Polling of America’s troops suggests that they will be voting against a Republican for the first time in a long while.
The right thing for Trump to do now is resign and allow Pence to take over, hoping that would improve Republican prospects in the November 3 election. He could then re-assume the office and would be hard to fault for doing so, as the voice of the people would have been heard. He won’t do that, because he can’t afford to lose this election or even leave office for a few months. Both his finances and his freedom are at risk, because the Russians won’t continue anteing up and state Attorneys General will be indicting him on felony charges. So instead he will stay on the ballot and try to de-legitimize the election results, especially if they show him winning on election night but losing due to mail-in ballots a couple of days later.
The only way of preventing that is a landslide in favor of Biden, starting on election night. Even then, Trump may try to prevent Biden from getting a majority in the Electoral College by convincing Republican governors to withhold communication of their electoral votes. But a clear and unequivocal electoral vote victory, in addition to Biden’s all but certain popular vote margin, would do a great deal to save America from a chaotic outcome.
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Peace Picks | August 31 – September 4, 2020
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
The Implications of the Israel-UAE Deal | September 1, 2020 – September 2, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:15 PM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
On August 13th, President Trump announced that Israel and the United Arab Emirates had agreed to “finalize a historical [sic] peace agreement” that would involve full normalization of relations between the two nations. Trump stated: “Not since the Israel-Jordan peace treaty was signed more than 25 years ago has so much progress been made towards peace in the Middle East.”
In this context, the Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP) invite you to join a two-part webinar series: The Implications of the Israel-UAE Deal. These two webinars, co-moderated by MEI’s Khaled Elgindy and FMEP’s Lara Friedman, will explore what the Israel-UAE does (and doesn’t) mean, the political context that led to its achievement, and its implications for the future.
Speakers:
Part 1: Israeli & Palestinian Perspectives
Khaled Elgindy (Moderator): Director, Program on Palestine & Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, Middle East Institute
Lara Friedman (Moderator): President, Foundation for Middle East Peace
Sam Bahour: Ramallah-Based Business Consultant, Applied Information Management
Marwa Fatafta: Policy Analyst, Al Shabaka
Elizabeth Tsurkov: Research Fellow, Forum for Regional Thinking
Part 2: U.S. Expert Perspectives
Khaled Elgindy (Moderator): Director, Program on Palestine & Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, Middle East Institute
Lara Friedman (Moderator): President, Foundation for Middle East Peace
Steven Cook: Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
Annelle Sheline: Research Fellow, Quincy Institute
James Zogby: Director, Zogby Research Services
Japan After Abe: Legacy & Next Moves | September 1, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:00 PM EDT | Center for Strategic & International Studies | Register Here
On August 28, 2020, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced he would resign due to a recurring illness. Please join us for an online panel discussion where CSIS experts will assess his legacy across a range of policy areas including security, diplomacy, and economics, as well as Japan’s political and strategic trajectory.
Speakers:
John J. Hamre (Introduction): President & CEO, Langone Chair in American Leadership, Center for Strategic & International Studies
Michael J. Green (Moderator): Senior Vice President for Asia & Japan Chair, Center for Strategic & International Studies
Victor Cha: Senior Adviser & Korea Chair, Center for Strategic & International Studies
Matthew P. Goodman: Senior Vice President for Economics & Simon Chair in Political Economy, Center for Strategic & International Studies
Yuko Nakano: Associate Director, US-Japan Strategic Leadership Program, Japan Chair, Center for Strategic & International Studies
Nicholas Szechenyi: Senior Fellow & Deputy Director, Japan Chair, Center for Strategic & International Studies
Iran, Israel, and the Changing Geopolitics of the Middle East | September 3, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The defenders of President Donald Trump’s Iran policy maintain that the “maximum pressure” campaign is working. They argue that not only is an Iran under pressure less able to undermine the interests of the US and its allies in the Middle East, but that this strategy is resulting in new geopolitical realities. They point to the recent Israel-UAE agreement as evidence. Critics of the “maximum pressure” campaign disagree and claim there is little evidence that Washington has been able to reshape Iran’s regional ambitions. This panel will look at these topics and examine where Iran and Israel stand vis-à-vis each other and specifically consider ways the US and allies can seek to address Tehran’s rejection of Israel as a fellow UN member state.
Speakers:
Alex Vantanka (Moderator): Director, Iran Program, Middle East Institute
Mark Dubowitz: Chief Executive, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Meir Javedanfar: Senior Research Fellow, Meir Ezri Center for Iran & Persian Gulf Studies
Ksenia Svetlova: Senior Research Analyst, Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policy
The Scramble for a Vaccine: Putin’s Sputnik V –– “Trust Me!” | September 2, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:00 PM EDT | Center for Strategic & International Studies | Register Here
Please join the CSIS Commission on Strengthening America’s Health Security on Wednesday, September 2, 2020 from 2:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. EDT for a discussion with Heather A. Conley, Senior Vice President and Director of the CSIS Europe Program; Judyth Twigg, Senior Associate with the CSIS Global Health Policy Center and Professor at Virginia Commonwealth University; and Vasily Vlassov, Professor and Senior Research Fellow at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. J. Stephen Morrison, Senior Vice President and Director of the CSIS Global Health Policy Center, will introduce and moderate the event discussion on Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine and its geo-strategic implications.
On August 11, Russia announced that it had approved the first Covid-19 vaccine for human use: Sputnik V. This announcement immediately stirred question and controversy within Russia and around the world, because the vaccine is unproven – it has not undergone large scale phase III clinical trials for safety and efficacy. Launching a vaccination campaign in Russia – and potentially elsewhere – without adequate safety and efficacy data could have global ramifications.
This event will feature a diverse panel of experts that will examine the implications of this announcement and what may lie ahead in the future. How might this play out within Russia – what resistance is Putin facing domestically, and what assets have been mobilized to support the campaign? Is there a success scenario for Putin? What might this mean for Russia’s distribution partnerships with other countries? What has the reception been in Europe, the United States, China, and at the World Health Organization? Does this development signal the degradation of international norms around vaccine development?
This discussion is part of a series of events hosted by the CSIS Commission on Strengthening America’s Health Security examining the global scramble for a Covid-19 vaccine. The first event, The Scramble for Vaccines and the COVAX Facility, focused on COVAX, a nascent international initiative to develop and equitably distribute Covid-19 vaccines to benefit all countries, rich and poor.
Speakers:
Vasily Vlassov: Professor & Senior Research Fellow, National Research University Higher School of Economics
J. Stephen Morrison: Senior Vice President & Director, Global Health Policy Center, Center for Strategic & International Studies
Heather A. Conley: Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic & Director, Europe Program, Center for Strategic & International Studies
Judyth Twigg: Non-Resident Senior Associate, Russia and Eurasia Program & Global Health Policy Center, Center for Strategic & International Studies
Sanctions-Busting in the DRC | September 3, 2020 | 2:00 PM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The Sentry released a new report, “Overt Affairs,” documenting how two North Korean businessmen openly busted international sanctions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). International sanctions programs on North Korea focus heavily on disrupting access to the international financial system due to the danger that revenue generated overseas could ultimately be used to fund the country’s nuclear weapons program. Private and public sector institutions in the DRC should have stopped this activity in its tracks, and the fact that they did not is more than a simple lapse. These frailties not only put the DRC’s banking sector and broader economy in significant danger, but they can also have global implications by undermining the effectiveness of international sanctions programs and the integrity of the international financial system.
Please join the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center in partnership with The Sentry on Thursday, September 3, at 2:00 p.m. (EDT) for a virtual conversation on North Korean sanctions-busting in the DRC. The conversation will feature a panel with counter-proliferation finance analyst Ms. Darya Dolzikova and DRC expert Dr. Pierre Englebert, with moderation by Africa Center Director of Programs and Studies Ms. Bronwyn Bruton and an introduction to the report by The Sentry’s Senior Investigator Mr. John Dell’Osso. Additional speakers will be added to this page once confirmed.
Speakers:
John Dell’Osso (Introduction): Senior Investigator, The Sentry
Bronwyn Bruton (Moderator): Director of Programs & Studies, Africa Center, Atlantic Council
Darya Dolzikova: Research Analyst, Proliferation & Nuclear Policy Programme, Royal United Services Institute
Dr. Pierre Englebert: H. Russell Smith Professor of International Relations, Pomona College; Senior Fellow, Africa Center, Atlantic Council
The Violence Inside Us | September 3, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:00 PM EDT | Brookings Institution | Register Here
In many ways, the United States sets the pace for other nations to follow. Yet on the most important human concern—the need to keep ourselves and our loved ones safe from physical harm—America isn’t a leader. In his new book, “The Violence Inside Us: A Brief History of an Ongoing American Tragedy,” Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) explores the origins of our violent impulses, the roots of our obsession with firearms, and the mythologies that prevent us from confronting our national crisis. Senator Murphy comes to the conclusion that while America’s relationship to violence is indeed unique, America is not inescapably violent. Even as he details the reasons we’ve tolerated so much bloodshed for so long, he explains that we have the power to change.
On September 3, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a webinar with David M. Rubenstein Fellow Rashawn Ray and Senator Murphy on his new book. The pair will discuss the history of violence in America and its long-term impacts, as well as the concrete steps that must be taken to change the nation’s narrative.
Speakers:
Rashawn Ray: David M. Rubenstein Fellow Rashawn Ray, Governance Studies, Brookings Institution
Hon. Chris Murphy: Senator (D-Conn.), United States Senate
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Stevenson’s army, August 20
The centenary of the 19th amendment is a good moment to reflect on the struggle for women’s suffrage. GZero has a great graphic. I liked to brag that my home state of Colorado gave women the right to vote in 1893, long before the 19th amendment and second only to Wyoming. But a few years ago I did some research and learned that the main reason the law was changed was to dilute the voting power of single miners. Right thing for the wrong reason.
The Air Force is even going to redesign its aircraft to allow more female pilots.
NYT doubts that a President Biden would be able to build bipartisan coalitions in Congress. I certainly favor bipartisanship in foreign policy and the “regular order” [like the NDAA] for major legislation. But maybe the hyperpartisanship is too strong. We can talk about this in class.
NYT says an intelligence community assessment in June disagreed with an earlier DHS intelligence report and concluded that low level officials in Wuhan withheld key coronavirus information from Beijing.
Politico says SecState Pompeo illegally sought military housing, though the army eventually provided lodging at Fort Myer.
NYT has more on F35 sale to UAE, including Netanyahu’s non-denial denial of the sales’ connection to the recognition deal.
I agree with Alice Hunt Friend’s article questioning the need for the SecDef to have military experience.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 18
– Bipartisan report from Senate Intelligence Committee details [966 pages!] Russian interference in 2016 elections. Here’s the document.
– Daily Beast says Trump secretly promised to sell F35s to UAE as part of agreement with Israel. Congress voted to block such sales in May, but Trump vetoed.
-WOTR details lots of foreign fighters in Sub-Saharan Africa.
– DHS official after 2 years under Trump details politicization of DHS.
-Is this an election year? Trump rejects proposed cuts in DOD health care.
– Future of JCPOA: Politico has explainer. FP says Europeans can keep agreement alive unti November.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 14
French navy goes to help Greece against Turkey.
Chinese navy near Taiwan.
US seizes ships with Iranian oil.
David Ignatius praises UAE-Israel agreement.
Slate has more background.
I recently read Robert Draper’s excellent book on the start of the Iraq war. Here’s the NYT review.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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