Tag: Israel
The Dating Game: Israel and the Gulf
In the last decade, the Gulf Arab states have grown steadily closer to Israel. Regional experts attribute this shift to changes in the strategic landscape, as well as shared antipathy toward Iran. Though collaboration was initially confined to the security sphere, it has expanded dramatically in recent years. On July 7, the Atlantic Council hosted an online event on this topic, entitled Israel’s Growing Ties with the Gulf Arab States. Speakers examined the potential for growth in the relationship, as well as some possible challenges. Their names and affiliations are listed below:
Dr. Gawdat Baghat: Professor of National Security Affairs, National Defense University
Jonathan H. Ferziger: Former Chief Political Reporter for Israeli & Palestinian Affairs, Bloomberg News
Ambassador Anne W. Patterson: Former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs
Ambassador Marc J. Sievers: Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Why Israel?
After the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the local balance of power shifted. Once powerful regional actors Egypt, Iraq, and Syria stagnated or declined. In their place rose non-Arab states Iran, Turkey, and Israel. According to Baghat, the Arab Spring only made this shift more severe. After the Arab Spring, Gulf Arab states increasingly perceived Israel as a potential ally rather than an enemy. Israel was a wealthy state with an advanced economy, great civilian and military technology, and a common enemy. The Gulf Arab states eventually approached Israel out of a desire to collaborate on anti-Iran initiatives.
Baghat explains that many Arab leaders believe that “the road to Washington is paved through Jerusalem.” Opportunistic Gulf Arab states may have changed their tune on Israel to curry favor with the United States. Even so, it is highly unlikely that Israel’s proximity to the United States was the sole or even the most important reason for the establishment of these new relationships. Gulf-Israeli cooperation is more organic, genuine, and locally-driven than ever, argues Sievers.
Since the Gulf States began their engagement with Israel, the Palestine issue has been largely on the back burner. Ferziger remarked that the issue has been conveniently ignored.
Arab-Israeli Cooperation
At its outset, cooperation was confined to the security sphere. Today, however, cooperation is far more robust. Ferziger happily notes that the Gulf Arab states work closely with Israel on economic issues, medical research, and even religious initiatives.
Israel’s advanced economy and many start-ups make it an attractive partner for the oil-rich Gulf states. Indeed, Saudi and Emirati sovereign wealth funds frequently invest in Israeli companies. Moreover, many Arab companies have long-lasting relationships with their Israeli counterparts. Ferziger cites Dubai World Ports and ZIM Integrated Shipping Services as an example.
Further, COVID-19 provided a platform for more open commercial relations between the Gulf states and Israel. On July 3, Israel Aerospace Industries and the UAE’s Group 42 signed a collaboration agreement. The agreement outlined their commitment to jointly fighting COVID-19, focusing on medical research and security technology. This was a major step in Gulf-Israel relations. Though the UAE and Israel do not have formal diplomatic relations, Ferziger believes that this agreement could lead to formal partnerships in other fields.
Somewhat unexpectedly, Ferziger argues that religious ties have paved the way for improved relations between the Gulf and Israel. Dubai has an active Jewish community, and the UAE has commenced a number of interfaith initiatives. In Abu Dhabi, for example, the Higher Committee on Human Fraternity commissioned an interfaith complex. This complex, the Abrahamic Faith House, will house a mosque, church, and synagogue.
The above are merely three areas of collaboration between the Gulf states and Israel. They do not constitute an exhaustive list.
Potential Challenges
In Baghat’s eyes, one major flaw in the nature of the Gulf-Israel relationship is that it is elite-driven. Relationships exist at the governmental level, between members of Gulf royal families and Israeli leaders. This is particularly troublesome, Baghat argues, because it means that the relationship can be easily reversed. He believes that cultural exchange is essential to the growth and success of the Gulf-Israel relationship.
Patterson notes the generational divide among Gulf leaders. Rapprochement is championed by younger leaders like Mohammad Bin Salman. These younger leaders can be overruled by more established members of the ruling dynasty. The relationship may be less stable than it appears.
Other challenges to the Gulf-Israel relationship are more immediate. The speakers agreed that Israeli annexation on the West Bank could impact the growing relationship, though they remained divided on the extent of its impact. Ferziger, a Jerusalem-based journalist, minimized the prospect of annexation and, in so doing, implied that its effect would be limited. Conversely, Ambassadors Patterson and Sievers expressed serious concerns about West Bank annexation. If the Gulf Arab states were to passively accept Israeli annexation, they argued, relationships with Arab states like Jordan could be negatively impacted. Ultimately, this is all speculation; Israel has not yet annexed the West Bank, nor has it announced any concrete plans.
Here is the video of the event:
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The Palestinian State at Risk
On May 28, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced his intention to annex portions of the West Bank. Netanyahu’s announcement sparked intense debate about whether peace in the form of a two-state solution remains possible. In the eyes of many observers, annexation is the nail in the coffin of a dilapidated Oslo Process. On July 1, the proposed annexation date, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hosted a livestream entitled The Way Forward for Palestine: A Conversation with Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh. The names and affiliations of all speakers are listed below. Since this event, Netanyahu has hesitated. No new annexation has yet occurred.
Mohammad Shtayyeh: Prime Minister, Palestinian National Authority
Marwan Muasher: Vice President for Studies, Carnegie Endowment
Aaron David Miller: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment
Zaha Hassan: Visiting Fellow, Carnegie Endowment
The annexation plan was drafted by the Trump Administration and unveiled in January 2020. In brief, it sanctioned the Israeli annexation of up to 30% of the West Bank. The Trump-Netanyahu plan was not well received, and it triggered local, regional, and international objections. The Palestinian National Authority (PNA) firmly rejected annexation and vowed to end all cooperation with Israel. Jordan opposed annexation on the basis that it posed an existential threat to Jordanian security, and most other Arab states opposed it on moral grounds. The European Union (EU) warned that EU-Israel relations would be negatively impacted by annexation.
Implications of Annexation
The immediate consequences of annexation would be dramatic. According to Shtayyeh, annexation will hinder the PNA’s efforts to generate the infrastructure, socio-political institutions, and state capacity necessary for statehood. If the PNA is poorly equipped for self-government, the national liberation movement will fail.
Annexation also has the potential to derail the peace process. Shtayyeh argues that annexation “erodes the geographic base of the eventual Palestinian state.” If annexation occurs, Israel will control large swaths of territory claimed by Palestinians, and it will become difficult for Palestinians to win back control in future negotiations. In Muasher’s eyes, annexation poses an existential threat to the realization of a two-state solution; if anything, annexation pushes the conflict toward a so-called “one state reality,” in which Palestinians and Israelis do not enjoy equal protection under the law.
According to Shtayyeh, July 1 would not be the first instance of Israeli annexation. In his opinion, Israel has engaged in a “creeping annexation” of the Palestinian territories since 1967. Shtayyeh argues that settlement construction and land expropriation effectively constitute annexation.
The Future of Palestine
Shtayyeh is not hopeful about the prospect of peace with Israel in light of the planned annexation. In response to a question, he noted that the debate within Israel is no longer about whether to annex but how much and what to annex. Nevertheless, Shtayyeh resisted Muasher’s various attempts to get him to renege on his support for a two-state solution. He repeatedly affirmed the PNA’s commitment to a two-state solution.
The PNA’s goal is the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state, with East Jerusalem as its capital and pre-1967 borders. To accomplish this, Shtayyeh believes that there must be incremental expansion of Palestinian sovereignty in the West Bank, until the vast majority of the territory is considered Area A and only “final status” issues remain.
Citing the history of failed negotiations and the United States’ long standing relationship with Israel, Shtayyeh argues that a new framework for negotiations is necessary. He and the PNA believe that the most appropriate course of action is multilateral negotiation, facilitated by the Quartet (European Union, United Nations, United States, Russia).
To watch the Carnegie Endowment’s livestream in full, click here.
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Stevenson’s army, July 6
– “Middle East intelligence” sources tell the NYT that Israel was responsible for the explosion at Iran’s nuclear enrichment facility.
-Both US and China have major naval operations now in South China Sea.
– FP says WH personnel will conduct loyalty interviews with DOD political appointees.
– AP says Trump-connected lobbyists captured billions in pandemic funds,
– Defector details weakness and corruption in North Korean military.
-LA Times says WH has agreed to keep 4000 US troops in Afghanistan after US elections.
-And for this week of 90+ degree weather, New Yorker has a 1998 article on life before air conditioners. [I remember]
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Peace Picks | July 6 – 10
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Online Event: CSIS Debate Series: Great Power Competition | July 7, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM EST | Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) | Register Here
Since the start of the Trump Administration, the United States has identified strategic competition with China and Russia as a core objective in sub-Saharan Africa. In the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and President Trump’s Africa Strategy, the U.S. government committed itself to counter threats posed by its global rivalries. In December 2018, then-National Security Adviser John Bolton claimed Beijing and Moscow’s activities “stunt economic growth in Africa; threaten the financial independence of African nations; inhibit opportunities for U.S. investment; interfere with U.S. military operations; and pose a significant threat to U.S. national security interests.”
In its fifth and final debate, the CSIS Africa Program asks former U.S. policymakers and African leaders if great power competition is the most constructive framework for formulating and implementing U.S. policies in sub-Saharan Africa. Does it promote stability, prosperity, independence, and security on the African continent? What are the opportunities and risks embedded in this concept? Does it effectively incorporate African perspectives and agency? And how does it evolve during a global pandemic?
Speakers:
Dr. Oby Ezekwesili: Public Policy Analyst & Senior Economic Advisor, Africa Economic Development Policy Initiative
Ken Ofori-Atta: Minister for Finance & Economic Planning, Ghana; Co-Founder, Databank Group
Gayle Smith: President & CEO, ONE Campaign
Juan Zarate: Senior Adviser, CSIS; Chairman & Co-Founder, Financial Integrity Network
Judd Devermont: Director, CSIS Africa Program - Israel’s Growing Ties With the Gulf Arab States | July 7, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Once thought to be irreconcilable adversaries, Israel and the Gulf states have quietly grown closer in recent years. Drawing the two camps together is a slew of security, political, and economic interests that in light of changing regional geopolitics, is now out from under the table. Yet the unresolved Palestinian issue as well as limited ties in a number of sectors pose barriers to normalization.
In their just-launched issue brief Israel’s growing Ties With the Gulf Arab States (PDF coming soon), Jerusalem-based journalist Jonathan Ferziger and National Defense University Professor Gawdat Bahgat trace the remarkable evolution of these relationships in recent years. Joining them to discuss suggestions for policymakers are Anne W. Patterson, former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs,and Marc J. Sievers, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and former US Ambassador to Oman.
Speakers:
Dr. Gawdat Baghat: Professor of National Security Affairs, National Defense University
Jonathan Ferziger: Former Chief Political Reporter for Israeli and Palestinian Affairs, Bloomberg News
Ambassador Anne W. Patterson: Former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs
Ambassador Mark J. Sievers: Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council - The Scramble for Libya: A Globalized Civil War at Tipping Point | July 8, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 10:45 AM EST | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
In the wake of recent battlefield developments in Libya, regional and global powers are maneuvering for influence and supremacy, with far-reaching implications for Libyan sovereignty, stability, and cohesion. What are the interests and goals of these interveners and what prospects remain for peaceful settlement? How have these states weaponized media narratives to augment their military meddling, and what is the effect both inside Libya and abroad?
A distinguished panel of scholars will offer insights into Russian, Turkish, Emirati, Egyptian, and French roles, as well as Libyan perspectives on foreign actors.
Speakers:
Dmitri Trenin: Director, Carnegie Moscow Center
Sinan Ulgin: Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Europe
Jalel Harchaoui: Research Fellow, Conflict Research Unit, Clingendael Institute
Khadeja Ramali: Libyan Researcher (Specialty: Social Media Analysis)
Frederic Wehrey: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - Congressional Perspectives on US-China Relations | July 8, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM EST | U.S. Institute of Peace | Register Here
The U.S.-China relationship is having an increasingly profound impact on the global economy and plays a crucial role in influencing the international order. The House of Representatives’ bipartisan U.S.-China Working Group provides a platform for frank and open discussions and educates members of Congress and their staff. These congressional perspectives toward China have influence over U.S. policy and the bilateral relationship, particularly regarding oversight of the global coronavirus pandemic, implementation of phase one of the U.S.-China trade agreement, and Beijing’s imposition of a controversial new national security law in Hong Kong.
Join USIP as we host the co-chairs of the U.S.-China Working Group, Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA) and Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL), for a conversation that explores key issues facing the U.S.-China relationship, shifting views in Congress on the topic, and the role of Congress in managing rising tensions and facilitating engagement between the two countries.
Speakers:
Representative Rick Larsen (D-WA): U.S. Representative from Washington
Representative Darin LaHood (R-IL): U.S. Representative from Illinois
The Honorable Nancy Lindborg: President & CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace - Information in Iran: How Recent Global Events Are Used to Shape & Skew Reality | July 9, 2020 | 9:00 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
While there has been significant attention given to foreign influence operations by state-actors like Iran, far less has been given to how global events shape—and skew—the reality depicted by the Iranian regime to the Iranian people. Over the past months, Iran has faced new challenges and opportunities in the information landscape – domestically, regionally, and internationally.
Iran has been especially hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has been exacerbated by heavy-handed censorship about the threat of the disease and the government’s response. The situation has been compounded by an influx of general health misinformation about coronavirus that proved fatal to hundreds of Iranian citizens.
Across the Middle East, COVID-19 is the latest topic in a long-running contest of narratives between regional adversaries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The competition is not new, but the topics certainly change with the news.
The Iranian regime has also attempted to shift attention toward other country’s shortcoming in responding to COVID-19 and capitalize on unrest elsewhere, especially racial justice protests over the killing of George Floyd in the United States. This is the latest in an effort not to proactively push propaganda with a focus on domestic control in the face of Iran’s own ongoing protest movement and international competition against adversarial nations.
This digital panel discussion will examine Iran’s information environment in the face of the latest global developments. This event, hosted by the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab and Middle East Program, will provide an overview of these overlapping information conflicts.
Speakers:
Emerson T. Brooking: Resident Fellow, Digital Forensic Research Lab, Atlantic Council
Holly Dagres: Non-Resident Fellow, Atlantic Council
Simin Kargar: Non-Resident Fellow, Digital Forensic Research Lab, Atlantic Council
Michael Lipin: Voice of America
Farhad Souzanchi: Director of Research & Media, ASL19
- How to Lose the Information War: Russia, Fake News, and the Future of Conflict | July 9, 2020 | 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM EST | Wilson Center | Register Here
Since the start of the Trump era, and as coronavirus has become an “infodemic,” the United States and the Western world have finally begun to wake up to the threat of online warfare and attacks from malign actors. The question no one seems to be able to answer is: what can the West do about it?
Nina Jankowicz, the Disinformation Fellow at the Wilson Center’s Science and Technology Innovation Program, lays out the path forward in How to Lose the Information War: Russia, Fake News, and the Future of Conflict. The book reports from the front lines of the information war in Central and Eastern Europe on five governments’ responses to disinformation campaigns. It journeys into the campaigns the Russian and domestic operatives run, and shows how we can better understand the motivations behind these attacks and how to beat them. Above all, this book shows what is at stake: the future of civil discourse and democracy, and the value of truth itself.
Jankowicz will delve into the case studies in the book and the broader implications of disinformation for democracy in discussion with Asha Rangappa, Senior Lecturer at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs and former FBI counterintelligence agent and with Matthew Rojansky, Director of the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute.
Speakers:
Nina Jankowicz: Disinformation Fellow, Wilson Center
Asha Rangappa: Senior Lecturer, Yale University Jackson Institute for Global Affairs
Matthew Rojansky: Director, Kennan Institute, Wilson Center
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Peace Picks | June 29 – July 5
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.
- WEBCAST | Natural Resources, Sustainable Development, and Peace in Africa | June 30, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | Wilson Center | Register Here
In many parts of Africa, conflict, natural resources, governance, development, and peace are inextricably linked. The continent’s rich and diverse natural resources have long been objects of conflict as well as sources of potential and actual development. Most countries depend on their natural resources for local livelihoods, national revenues and export earnings, and foreign exchange. However, exploitation, management (or lack thereof), and competition over these same natural resources has, at times, sparked or sustained devastating conflict. In many resource-endowed, but impoverished local communities the exploitation of natural resources results in the degradation of the environment, and fuels conflict.
This event will examine the intersection of civil society and peacebuilding in natural resource-rich African countries. It will interrogate their roles in community engagement, the promotion of accountability, and development based on inclusive, transparent, and sustainable resource management. In this regard, it will address the following related questions, including: what roles have African civil society groups played in natural resource development and management on the continent? What are some of the major challenges they face, and what lessons can be shared from across Africa in engaging and empowering civil society on this issue? How can governments, private businesses, local communities, and civil society work together to build peace and secure just, inclusive, and sustainable development? Finally, the event will offer policy options for boosting the meaningful inclusion of civil society groups and local communities in transforming natural resource development and management.
Speakers:
Dauda Garuba: Technical Advisor, Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Inititave (NEITI)
Resty Naiga: Lecturer, Department of Development Studies, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, Makerere University
Cosmas Milton Obote Ochieng: Director, African Natural Resources Center, African Development Bank
Seydina Ousmame Sene: Senior Economist, Initiative Prospective Agricole et Rurale (IPAR)
Monde Muyangwa: Africa Program Director , Wilson Center
Cyril Obi: Program Director, African Peacebuilding Network, Social Science Research Council
- Can Cooperation on Missile Defense Avoid a US-China Nuclear Arms Race? | June 30, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Watch Event Here
Despite the U.S. threat to spend China “into oblivion,” Beijing has refused to participate in arms control talks with Washington and Moscow. China categorically rejects the notion that it is arms racing and believes that growing military threats—U.S. missile defenses in particular—demand comprehensive efforts to modernize and enhance its nuclear deterrent capability. A new Carnegie report by Tong Zhao, to be launched at this event, examines the widening perception gap on missile defense and asks what the two countries can do to prevent a nuclear arms race that could undermine global security.
Speakers:
Oriana Mastro: assistant professor at Georgetown University and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.
- The World Order after COVID-19 Forum | Two Day Event: June 30, 2020 11:00 AM – 5:00 PM & July 1, 2020 9:00 AM – 4:00 PM | Johns Hopkins SAIS | Register Here
The two-day conference will feature a keynote address from former Google CEO and Chairman Eric Schmidt and “A Conversation with former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers.” Conference panelists from Johns Hopkins’ ten schools and departments as well as its key programs including the SNF Agora Institute and Applied Physics Laboratory will offer expertise and global insights on preparing for the post-COVID-19 world.
- Where Do Iraq’s Religious and Ethnic Minorities Stand Post-ISIS? | June 30, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:45 AM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Six years after the Islamic State’s genocidal rampage across northern Iraq, circumstances for traumatized religious and ethnic minorities remain dire. Thousands remain displaced, unable or unwilling to return to their homes in Nineveh province amid ongoing security challenges and other barriers to their safe return. Meanwhile, new sources of instability in Iraq—including the coronavirus pandemic, a financial crisis, and renewed threats of an ISIS resurgence—have highlighted the fragility of any improved stability in minority-rich areas, as well as the need for ongoing and intensive efforts to facilitate the sustainable return of all displaced communities.
Join USIP as it hosts Assistant Secretary Robert A. Destro from the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor (DRL), as well as a panel of experts, for a discussion on the current reality for Iraqi religious and ethnic minorities, the international response in the aftermath of ISIS’s military defeat, and the impact of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, the new Iraqi government, and potential early elections.
Speakers:
Nancy Lindborg: President & CEO, United States Institute of Peace
Robert A. Destro: Assistant Secretary for the U.S. State Department Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor
William Warda: Member of the General Assembly and External Relations Committee, Alliance of Iraqi Minorities; and
Director of Public Relations, Hammurabi Human Rights Organization
Susan Aref: Director and Founder, Women Empowerment Organization
Osama Gharizi: Iraq Senior Program Advisor, United States Institute of Peace
Lee Tucker (moderator): Senior Program Officer, Middle East, United States Institute of Peace
- The Rule of Law in Afghanistan | July 1, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:15 PM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
As governments face the devastating economic and social effects of the coronavirus pandemic, identifying and addressing rule of law issues related to transparency, corruption, human rights, and the delivery of justice will be paramount to the recovery process. The World Justice Project’s (WJP) new report on the rule of law in Afghanistan presents a unique portrait of the country’s rule of law strengths and weaknesses by using extensive survey data collected from the general public, in-country legal practitioners, and ground-breaking interviews with individuals incarcerated in the Afghan prison system.
The latest edition of this report, which reflects the experiences and perceptions of more than 17,500 Afghans interviewed over five years, presents a comprehensive summary of the rule of law situation in Afghanistan and contains new, in-depth findings on the performance of the criminal justice system.
Join USIP and WJP for an in-depth conversation on the report’s findings, as well as crucial factors for the rule of law in Afghanistan. Panelists will also discuss how the report can encourage data-driven policy choices and guide program development to strengthen the rule of law.
Speakers:
Alejandro Ponce: Chief Research Officer, World Justice Project
Amy Gryskiewicz: Director, Criminal Justice Research, World Justice Project
Abdullah Ahmadzai: Country Representative, Afghanistan, The Asia Foundation
Ghizaal Haress: Ombudsperson, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Scott Worden (moderator): Director, Afghanistan and Central Asia Programs, USIP
- Government Accountability in the Age of COVID-19 | July 1, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
The Covid-19 health crisis has been matched by deep challenges related to misinformation, governance and trust. In the absence of effective responses, citizens, civil society groups and public sector reformers are finding creative ways to rebuild the social contract between states and their people. Please join CSIS Project on Prosperity and Development for a unique opportunity to hear stories from the ground in South Africa, Mali, and Nepal about how Covid-19 is affecting government accountability in these countries, what collective efforts to debunk rumors and fight fake news around the pandemic have been taken, and what steps have been taken to tackle corruption.
Speakers:
Romina Bandura: Senior Fellow, Project on Prosperity and Development, Project on US Leadership in Development, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Cheri- Leigh Erasmus: Global Director of Learning, Accountability Lab
Narayan Adhikari: Country Director Nepal, Accountability Lab
Doussouba Konaté: Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning Officer for Mali, Accountability Lab
- Turkish-Israeli Relations: Prospects for Improved Development | July 1, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:30 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Over the past decade Israel-Turkey relations have been strained. There have been recent positive signs, however. Israel’s decision not to sign a statement by France, Greece, Cyprus, the UAE, and Egypt condemning Turkey’s actions in the eastern Mediterranean and a tweet posted by Israel’s official Twitter account praising its diplomatic relations with Turkey raised hopes. Turkish analysts saw the moves as a sign of both countries’ willingness to cooperate when it comes to eastern Mediterranean energy but tensions remain.
How does Israel and Turkey’s involvement in Syria and increasing opportunities for economic cooperation affect the prospect of improved bilateral relations? How will Israel’s plans for annexation and Turkey’s public support for the Palestinians affect diplomatic relations? Are there enough incentives to normalize Israel-Turkey relations or will the barriers be insurmountable?
Speakers:
Nimrod Goren: Founder and head of Mitvim, The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Soli Ozel: Senior lecturer, Kadir Has University
Gönül Tol (Moderator): Director of Turkey Program and Senior Fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
- US Strategic Partnerships in the Black Sea | July 2, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The United States is present in the Black Sea region with three strategic partnerships focused on security with Georgia, Ukraine, and Romania. The strategic partnerships are tailored on the three countries with differing security challenges. While Romania is a NATO member state and a host of US military, Georgia and Ukraine are challenged in their sovereignty and territorial integrity. However, the three countries are brought together by their respective strategic partnerships with the United States, and shared threat perceptions and common security interests for the Black Sea region. The Middle East Institute (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative is pleased to host a discussion with the Ambassadors of Georgia, Romania and Ukraine to the United States on the importance of US-Black Sea strategic partnerships.
What do the three strategic partnerships entail for national security? How do strategic partnerships and the United States presence impact Black Sea regional security? What are the priorities of US strategic partnerships for future regional security?
Speakers
David Bakradze: Georgian Ambassador to the United States
George Maior: Romanian Ambassador to the United States
Yelchenko Volodymyr: Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States
Iulia Joja (moderator): Senior fellow, Middle East Institute, Frontier Europe Initiative
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Peace Picks | June 22-28
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.
- Algeria’s Borderlands: A Country Unto Themselves | June 22, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Carnegie Middle East Center | Watch Event Here
Algerian officials in the northeastern border area between Algeria and Tunisia continue to permit the cross-border smuggling of petrol and other commodities. In turn, smugglers have participated in the authorities’ efforts to neutralize security threats, even as they continue to engage in the illicit trade. The two ostensibly adversarial parties effectively complement each other. In her new paper, Algeria’s Borderlands: A Country Unto Themselves, Algerian political scientist Dalia Ghanem examines such paradoxes and argues that state formation remains an evolving process in the country.
Speakers:
Dalia Ghanem: resident scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center.
Max Gallien: political scientist at the Institute of Development Studies.
Isabelle Werenfels: senior fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).
- Assessing the Implications of the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act | June 22, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
On June 17, the long-awaited Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act came into force, imposing the most comprehensive set of sanctions against Syria’s Assad regime to date. Aimed principally at preventing further war crimes by preventing any foreign investment into the Syrian regime, the sanctions will almost certainly have a consequential impact on Syria’s politics and economy. As the act comes into force, Syria is already beset by a spiraling economic crisis, the effects of which have generated unusually defiant and persistent anti-regime protests in the Druze-majority governorate of Suwayda and rising levels of discontent within regime-held territories. Southern Syria faces an expanding insurgency, ISIS is slowly resurging in the central desert, Turkey is doubling down on a permanent presence in the northwest and for now, U.S. troops appear to be staying.
How will the Caesar Act’s sanctions be enforced and with what goals in mind? What effect are they likely to have within today’s context? Does a policy of escalating pressure on the Assad regime promise diplomatic progress or humanitarian suffering?
Speakers:
Amb. James F. Jeffrey: Special Representative for Syria and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS
Rime Allaf: Syrian writer and commentator; board member, The Day After Project
Qutaiba Idlbi: Non-resident scholar, MEI; Syria fellow, International Center for Transitional Justice
Charles Lister (Moderator): Director, Syria and Countering Terrorism and Extremism Programs, MEI
- U.S. Grand Strategy in the Middle East | June 22, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
While prominent voices in Washington have argued that U.S. interests in the Middle East are dwindling and will require the United States to “do less” there, Jake Sullivan argued in a recent Foreign Affairs article that the United States should be more ambitious using U.S. leverage and diplomacy to promote regional stability.
Speakers:
Jake Sullivan: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Geoeconomics and Strategy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Jon B. Alterman: Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director, Middle East Program
- Iranian Kurds: Challenges, Existence, and Goals | June 23, 2020 | 11:00 AM | Washington Kurdish Institute | Register Here
With 12 million people, the Iranian Kurds make up the second largest population of the Kurds in the greater Kurdistan. Similar to Iraq, Syria, and Turkey, the Iranian Kurds have been struggling for decades for freedom under the current Iranian regime. The Kurdistan region of Iran (Rojhelat) has the highest rate of political prisoners in the country. The regime’s discriminatory economic policies in Rojhelat have resulted in poverty and poor living conditions for the Kurds, which led many to become border porters known as Kolbars. Hundreds of Kolabrs are victims of the Iranian border guard attacks and executions every year. The dire political, economic, and security situation of Rojhelat continues under the current regime that has been suppressing its citizens on an ethnic and sectarian basis.
As the first founders of the Kurdish nationalism and political parties in greater Kurdistan, the panel will discuss the current situation of the Iranian Kurds and their goals. The panel will also discuss the Iranian Kurdish relations and cooperation with other opposition groups in Iran and potential future understandings.
Speakers:
David L. Phillips: Director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights at Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights
Arash Salih: Representative of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan to the United States.
Salah Bayaziddi: Representative of the Komala Party to the United States.
Kamran Balnour: Representative of the Kurdistan Democratic Party to the United States
- The World Economy After COVID-19: A Conversation with President Romano Prodi | June 23, 2020 | 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM | Johns Hopkins SAIS | Register Here
Join Johns Hopkins SAIS for a conversation with Romano Prodi, Former President of the European Commission (1999-2004); Former Prime Minister of Italy (1996-1998; 2006-2008). The event is moderated by Justin O. Frosini, Adjunct Professor of Constitutional Law, SAIS Europe; Director of the Center for Constitutional Studies and Democratic Development and Associate Professor, Bocconi University.
- The Sunni Religious Establishment of Damascus: When Unification Creates Division | June 24, 2020 | 7:00 AM – 8:00 AM | Carnegie Middle East Center | Watch Event Here
The 2011 uprising in Syria totally transformed the religious establishment in Damascus. The regime sent into exile many prominent, influential religious figures who, forced to work from abroad, formed a religious opposition group called the Syrian Islamic Council. The regime also restructured what remained of the capital’s competing religious institutions. This robbed the religious establishment in Damascus of the financial and administrative independence that had been its key privileges. But it also presented new Sunni clerics from the capital’s hinterland with opportunities to enter the competitive religious arena — as well as posing a major challenge to the SIC, obliged to operate in exile. In her latest paper, The Sunni Religious Establishment of Damascus: When Unification Creates Division, Laila Rifai mentions how the religious sphere in Rural Damascus Governorate is poised to become a political battleground as both the regime and the exiled opposition seek to court a new rising group of religious leaders.
Speakers:
Laila Rifai: writer and researcher, specializing in Syrian religious affairs.
Thomas Pierret: senior researcher at CNRS-IREMAM, Aix-en-Provence.
Muhammed Mounir Al Fakir: fellow at the Omran Centre for Strategic Studies.
- Turkish-Israeli Relations: Prospects for Improved Diplomacy | June 25, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Over the past decade Israel-Turkey relations have been strained. There have been recent positive signs, however. Israel’s decision not to sign a statement by France, Greece, Cyprus, the UAE, and Egypt condemning Turkey’s actions in the eastern Mediterranean and a tweet posted by Israel’s official Twitter account praising its diplomatic relations with Turkey raised hopes. Turkish analysts saw the moves as a sign of both countries’ willingness to cooperate when it comes to eastern Mediterranean energy but tensions remain.
How does Israel and Turkey’s involvement in Syria and increasing opportunities for economic cooperation affect the prospect of improved bilateral relations? How will Israel’s plans for annexation and Turkey’s public support for the Palestinians affect diplomatic relations? Are there enough incentives to normalize Israel-Turkey relations or will the barriers be insurmountable?
Speakers:
Nimrod Goren: Founder and head of Mitvim, The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Karel Valansi: Political columnist, Shalom Newspaper
Gönül Tol: (Moderator): Director of Turkey Program and Senior Fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
- The Broader Implications U.S. Disentanglement from Afghanistan| June 26, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
On 29 February, the United States signed an agreement with the Taliban designed to allow for an orderly withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Afghanistan by next spring if not sooner. Coming after many months of difficult negotiations, the decision carried a promise from the Taliban to deny to any terrorist group or individual the use of Afghan soil to undertake an attack on the United States or its allies. The accord also carried a Taliban commitment to participate in an intra-Afghan dialogue quickly aimed at a peaceful resolution of the civil conflict. American policy for Afghanistan must be seen as well on a broader canvas of continuing U.S. diplomatic, political and military disengagement regionally. As in Afghanistan, withdrawal leaves unanswered many questions about how American national security interests may be affected, particularly at a time of increased great power competition.
What might be the impact of a full U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan on the course of the civil war and prospects for peace talks? What would the United States do if after departure the Taliban broke the terms of their agreement or threatened the survival of the Afghan state? How would the end of an American military presence affect relations with Pakistan? And is the United States prepared to accede to strongly increased Iranian, Russian, or Chinese influence in Afghanistan and the region?
Javid Ahmad: Nonresident fellow, Atlantic Council
Ronald E. Neumann: President, The American Academy of Diplomacy
J. Alexander Thier: Senior advisor, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Elizabeth Threlkeld: Senior fellow and deputy director, South Asia Program, Stimson Center
Marvin Weinbaum (Moderator): Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, MEI
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