Tag: Jordan
All deliberate speed, please
UN Secretary General Ban is marking the third anniversary of the Syrian uprising, which by my reckoning is March 15, by appealing to Russia and the US to revive peace talks. That’s his job, but prospects are not good.
The Asad regime continues to make slow progress on the battlefield. The opposition continues to insist that he step down to initiate a transition to democracy. There is no “zone of possible agreement.” Asad is preparing to conduct what he will call an election this spring to reconfirm his hold on power. The conditions in regime-controlled areas will not permit the election to be anything like free or fair. The conditions in liberated and contested areas won’t allow an election to occur at all. But Asad will claim legitimacy. Russia will concur.
In the US, consciousness of the horrors occurring in Syria is growing. The recent reports of the Save the Children and UNICEF boosted the case for humanitarian relief. The US has already been generous, even to a fault, as it appears to be buying tolerance for the failure to bring about a political resolution of the conflict. Russia, more committed to realpolitik, continues to arm, finance and provide political support to the regime. The crisis in Crimea leaves little oxygen in Washington for Syria. There is an argument for replying to Putin’s moves in Ukraine by strengthening opposition efforts in Syria, but I am not seeing signs that it is winning the day.
Some key members of the Syrian Opposition Coalition (Etilaf) will be in DC next week making the case for more support, including to the more moderate fighters. What Etilaf needs to do is convince the Obama Administration that vital American interests are at risk in Syria. The two most striking are the risk of extremism putting down deep roots in Syria and the risk of state collapse, both of which would affect not only Syria but its neighbors, especially Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan. Perhaps eventually also Turkey and even Israel, whose boundary with Syria in occupied Golan could become hotter than it has been for many years.
Etilaf has not yet convinced Washington that it can be an effective bulwark against these threats. The Coalition has precious little control over even the relative moderates among the fighters. It has little to no capacity to counter Jabhat al Nusra or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the former the official al Qaeda franchisee and the latter its Iraq-based competitor. Etilaf favors preservation of the Syrian state, but with every passing day that becomes less likely. Nor has Etilaf demonstrated a lot of traction with the ad hoc administrative councils that pop up in liberated areas.
Where Etilaf showed itself to best advantage was at the Geneva 2 talks, where it outmaneuvered the Asad regime and scored lots of good points in favor of a managed transition and against the horrors of what Asad is doing. There is irony then in Etilaf emphasizing the limits of diplomacy, which is the arena in which it has done best.
That is not however a good reason to revive the talks, which really went nowhere. Nor can they be expected to, given what is happening on the battlefield. Until Iran and Russia are convinced that they risk more by continuing to support Asad rather than abandoning him, Tehran and Moscow will provide the edge he needs to continue to gain ground, albeit slowly. This is a formula for more war, not less.
A couple of weeks ago, the Obama Administration was thought to be looking at new options for Syria. There is no sign they have emerged from the “interagency” labyrinth. That’s not surprising. It took 3.5 years for something meaningful to emerge from the National Security Council in Bosnia, and depending on how you count at least that long in Kosovo. Only in Afghanistan and in Iraq have such decisions proved quick, mistakenly and disastrously so in Iraq.
Deliberation is wise. But if it takes too long, vital American interests in blocking extremists and maintaining the states of the Levant may suffer irreparable damage. Not to mention the harm to Syrians, who deserve better. All deliberate speed, please.
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The growing Syrian refugee crisis
Wednesday the Aspen Institute Levant Program discussed policies for the growing Syrian refugee crisis. The second group of panelists consisted of Assistant Secretary Anne Richard, Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration (US Department of State); François Stamm, Deputy Head of the North America Delegation, International Committee of the Red Cross and Oubai Shahbandar, Senior Consultant to the Syrian Coalition. Toni Verstandig, Chair of the Middle East Programs at the Aspen Institute, moderated.
Anne Richard‘s primary concern is the 3.3 million Syrians in hard-to-reach areas of the country. The international community has the potential to help immensely, but does not have access to those most in need. The good news is that the US has been a leading donor in response to the Syrian crisis. It has donated $1.7 billion in humanitarian aid to the UNHCR and the Red Cross. Read more
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Tunisia: the bright spot
Maia Blume, a master’s student at SAIS, writes:
Carnegie Endowment hosted a discussion Wednesday with Rached Ghannouchi, co-founder of Tunisia’s Ennahda Party, moderated by Marwan Muasher, vice president of the Carnegie Endowment and former Foreign Minister of Jordan.
Muasher sees Tunisia as the one bright spot in the region. It now has the most pluralistic, democratic and progressive constitution in the Arab world. Compromise is critical to progress, and Tunisia’s various political factions have succeeded in overcoming their differences. It should be recognized as a model for the Arab world. Ghannouchi himself helped steer his party toward compromise, as Ennahda relinquished control of the government in order to pave the way for passage of the constitution. The role of religion in politics has not yet been decided, and Tunisia is facing mounting economic challenges, but its progress thus far should not be understated.
Ghannouchi said the Tunisian model has proven that democracy can be realized around the world. Fundamentalism only leads to chaos and destruction. The cost of giving up is less than showing patience for the democratic process to take hold. Countries in the region need time to become accustomed to democracy after decades of despotism and tyranny. Because of the Tunisian commitment to the process, the constitution has gained the widest possible consensus. Read more
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The difference women make
Tuesday morning the National Democratic Institute and Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Insitution co-hosted a discussion with members of parliament from Jordan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. The panelists were Rabia Najlaoui, the youngest member of the Tunisian National Constituent Assembly; Fatiha Mouknii, Moroccan Member of Parliament representing the Istiqlal party; Moussa Faraj, member of the Libyan General National Congress; and Reem Abu Dalbouh, Member of Jordanian Parliament. Tamara Cofman Wittes, Director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy and a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, moderated the discussion.
Rabia Najlaoui (Tunisia): The Arab Spring made it clear that women are not passive victims. They are protestors, journalists, and activists. Women played a critical role in the revolution. But soon after they were marginalized. April 2011 saw the enforcement of the zipper rule requiring that names on ballots alternate by gender. 94% of electoral lists listed a man first. Read more
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No end in sight
Syria is the most rapid and widespread displacement of people since the Rwandan civil war of the 1990s, according to State Department Deputy Assistant Secretary Kelley Clements of the Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration. Last Friday’s Brookings Institution/Mercy Corps panel focused on “No End in Sight: Syria’s Refugees and Regional Repercussions,” drawing on humanitarian and diplomatic expertise from Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and the United States.
Ambassador Antoine Chedid said Lebanon honors its international commitments to meeting the needs of Syrian refugees and asylum seekers, who are straining the country’s public services and the economy. Lebanon’s population has increase by about one-third. This population bulge has distorted the economy, increasing the unemployment rate and driving the cost of rent upward. Conditions in the refugee camps are exacerbating poor health and insecurity as well as breeding terrorism and radicalization. The Lebanese government favors creation of safe zones within Syria, but these are controversial, because their civilian population can become a target of the warring parties. Read more
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Peace Picks February 24 – 28
1. Twitter Evolutions: The Changing Role of Social Media in War and Protest
Monday, February 24 | 9am – 1pm
U.S. Institute of Peace; 2301 Constitution Ave NW
In the early days of the Arab Spring, many hailed digital media as revolutionary tools for democracy and peace building. Three years later, as the region still struggles with authoritarian retrenchment and civil war, social media continues to play an important, if far more complex, role in ongoing events. Meanwhile, protest movements in parts of Europe – especially Turkey and Ukraine – are providing intriguing, and complicated, examples of digitally active protest movements and recalcitrant governments.
Join the U.S. Institute of Peace on February 24th for two panel discussions on social media’s role in political protest and civil war across the Middle East and Europe.
The first panel will discuss the recently released Blogs & Bullets report, which examined mainstream media coverage, YouTube videos, and more than 40 million tweets over a two-year period to show the changing use and impact of media in the Syrian crisis. The second panel will explore the relationship between social media and the political crises in Egypt, Turkey, and Ukraine. This event is part of the ongoing Blogs & Bullets project, a partnership between USIP’s PeaceTech Initiative and George Washington University’s Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communication.
Online viewers will be able to engage panelists and each other via a live Twitter discussion (#usipblogs).
Agenda:
9:00am to 9:10am | Introduction
Sheldon Himelfarb
Director of Media, Technology, and Peace building, U.S. Institute of Peace
9:10am to 10:30am | Panel I: Syria’s Socially Mediated Civil War
P.J. Crowley, Moderator
Professor of Practice, School of Media and Public Affairs, George Washington University. Former Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs
Marc Lynch
Director, Institute for Middle East Studies, George Washington University
Sean Aday
Director, Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communication, George Washington University
Deen Freelon
Assistant Professor of Communications Studies, American University
10:30am to 10:45am | Break
10:45am to 12:30pm | Panel II: New Media and Contentious Politics in Egypt, Ukraine and Turkey
P.J. Crowley, Moderator
Professor of Practice, School of Media and Public Affairs, George Washington University. Former Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs
Adel Iskandar
Adjunct Instructor, Communication, Culture & Technology, Georgetown University
Joshua Tucker
Professor of Politics, New York University
Zeynep Tufecki
Assistant Professor, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
2. Corruption and Business in Russia: National Problem, Regional Solutions
Monday, February 24 | 9:15am – 12:00pm
5th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center; 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW
There is a perception that it is not possible to do business in Russia without engaging in corruption. While corruption in Russia is a fact of life, individual businesses are employing a range of strategies to reduce their exposure and give them access to international partners. The Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE) and the Kennan Institute present expert findings on this timely issue.
Jordan Gans-Morse, an assistant professor of political science at Northwestern University, will present his research on how non-oligarchic firms are surviving in an atmosphere of endemic corruption. The firms’ coping mechanisms and the means they use to settle business disputes shed light on the course of Russia’s future economic development. Based on extensive field research, Gans-Morse is at work on a book about law, property rights, and corruption in Russia. CIPE Moscow Program Officer Natalya L. Titova will speak on a CIPE initiative in Russia that is helping regional business to meet international anti-corruption standards in order to join international value chains.
During the discussion, the speakers will be joined on a panel by CIPE partners from St. Petersburg, Chelyabinsk and Kaliningrad where corruption is a significant barrier to attracting investment.
SPEAKERS
Marina Fitsak
Vice President, Kaliningrad Chamber of Commerce and Industry
Jordan Gans-Morse
Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Northwestern University
Ludmila Karelina
Director General, International Institute of Organization Management, St. Petersburg
Oleg Moskovsky
Chelyabinsk business owner, expert on commercial risk and debt management
Natalya L. Titova
Program Officer, Moscow, Center for International Private Enterprise
3. Women in the New Arab Politics: A Conversation with Members of Parliament from Jordan, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia
Tuesday, February 25 | 10am – 11:30am
8th floor, National Democratic Institute; 455 Massachusetts Ave NW
Please join the National Democratic Institute and the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution for a discussion with members of parliament from Jordan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. The MPs will discuss the evolving role of women in politics in the Middle East and North Africa, and the potential means of enhancing the participation and leadership of women on the issues of economic development and inclusive growth in times of political transition.
The discussion will be moderated by Tamara Cofman Wittes, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy and a senior fellow at Brookings. NDI director of women’s political participation Susan Markham will provide opening remarks.
4. US diplomacy with adversaries: Dancing with the devil, or how enemies become friends
Tuesday, February 25 | 12:00pm – 1:30pm
10th floor, Center for American Progress; 1333 H St NW
Please join the Center for American Progress and AEI for a discussion marking the release of “Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes,” a new book by Michael Rubin. In the book, Rubin argues that US diplomacy with countries such as Iran and North Korea and groups such as the Taliban in Afghanistan and Hezbollah has significant risks.
The discussion will feature Charles Kupchan, author of the 2012 book “How Enemies Become Friends: The Sources of Stable Peace.” In his book, Kupchan argues that diplomatic engagement with adversaries is essential for enhancing global stability and order.
The discussion is the continuation of a series of joint conversations between the Center for American Progress and AEI examining major national security issues in the coming years.
SPEAKERS
Panelists:
Charles Kupchan, Council on Foreign Relations
Michael Rubin, AEI
Moderator:
Brian Katulis, Center for American Progress
5. Civil Society in Afghanistan: Spark or Stumbling Block for Stability?
Tuesday, February 25 | 3 – 5pm
5th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center; 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW
With international troops withdrawing from Afghanistan, Afghan efforts to promote security will increasingly be taking center stage. This event examines the extent to which Afghan nongovernment organizations (NGOs) can help achieve stability. Speakers will discuss the appropriate balance between state, market, and civil society in fostering stability in Afghanistan; assess the U.S. military’s civil society outreach and engagement efforts in Afghanistan; present findings on how Afghan NGOs are working to counter violent extremism and build peace; and examine how Afghan civil society is preparing for 2015, and how the United States can help.
There will be a live webcast of this event.
SPEAKERS
Clare Lockhart
Co-founder and director, Institute for State Effectiveness
David Sedney
Former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia
Mehreen Farooq
Senior fellow, World Organization for Resource Development and Education
Waleed Ziad
Director of South and Central Asia Programs, World Organization for Resource Development and Education
6. Surveillance Costs: The NSA’s Impact on the Economy, Information Security, and Internet Freedom
Tuesday, February 25 | 4 – 6:30pm
New America Foundation, 1899 L St NW
There’s a debate raging in DC and around the world about the extensive National Security Agency (NSA) surveillance programs that were first revealed this past summer–not only about whether the surveillance is consistent with constitutional and human rights, but also about the costs and the benefits of such mass surveillance. New America’s National Security Studies Program recently addressed the “benefits” question by releasing an in-depth research report demonstrating that the NSA programs have done little to prevent terrorism.
This event from New America’s Open Technology Institute (OTI) will look at the other side of the coin and examine the costs of the NSA programs. Such costs include not only the direct cost to the American taxpayer, but also the cost to the American Internet industry (by some estimates over $180 billion within the next few years), the cost to America’s foreign relations and its work to promote “Internet Freedom” globally, and finally, the cost to Internet security itself.
Join us for a lively discussion on these and other costs of surveillance, with representatives from the Internet industry and the Internet security community along with security policy experts from the left and right, moderated by a longtime legal advocate in the surveillance and privacy world and with an introduction from the US State Department’s former Director of Policy Planning, New America’s President & CEO Anne-Marie Slaughter.
SPEAKERS
Introduction:
Anne-Marie Slaughter
President & CEO, New America Foundation
Featured Speakers:
Daniel Castro
Senior Analyst, The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF)
Mieke Eoyang
National Security Program Director, Third Way
Richard Fontaine
President, The Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Ross Schulman
Public Policy and Regulatory Counsel,
The Computer and Communications Industry Association (CCIA)
Micah Sherr
Assistant Professor of Computer Science, Georgetown University
Moderator:
Kevin Bankston
Policy Director, New America Foundation, Open Technology Institute
7. Ongoing Political Unrest in Bosnia: Drivers of Change and Future Implications
Sponsored by the George Washington University Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies (IERES) and the Advisory Council for Bosnia and Herzegovina
Tuesday, February 25 | 4 – 5pm
Voesar Conference Room, Suite 412; 1957 E St NW
Recent public protests have once again turned international attention to Bosnia and Herzegovina, the site of the 1992-1995 war that left 2 million people displaced and more than 100,000 killed. Almost twenty years after the war, Bosnians across the country have taken to the streets to demand an end to corruption and the ineffective system of governance that have paralyzed the state and robbed its citizens of economic prosperity and a brighter future. The panel will examine the path that led to this crisis, what lies ahead for the postwar state, including its prospects for EU and NATO membership, and broader implications for the region.
SPEAKERS
Nidžara Ahmetašević, Slobodna Bosna (via Skype)
Janusz Bugajski, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Jasmin Mujanović, Harriman Institute, Columbia University
Moderated by:
Sarah Wagner, George Washington University Deptartment of Anthropology
8. Modern Africa: A Symposium on Opportunities for Women in Energy and Water Access
Wednesday, February 26 | 8:30am – 1:30pm
Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW
To register for this event, please email africa@csis.org
Please join us for a conference on women’s access to water and clean energy in Africa. Practitioners, thought leaders, experts, entrepreneurs, and policy makers will discuss and explore the opportunities in water-energy access in Africa, and give examples of successful policies and entrepreneurial ventures that are helping to increase women’s participation in, and contribution to, the water and energy sectors in Africa. The panel sessions will focus on removing barriers to women’s access to energy and water, and on harnessing opportunities at the water-energy access nexus through innovative social, impact, and for-profit investment models, and diaspora networks and platforms to establish business ventures and relationships that catalyze more investments.
Panel discussions will cover:
Women’s Access to Energy
Women’s Access to Water
Harnessing Opportunities to Increase Access to Energy and Water through Partnerships and Innovative Investment Models
The event will be webcast.
SPEAKERS
Pepukaye Bardouille, International Finance Corporation
Tim Boersma, The Brookings Institution
Jennifer Cooke, Africa Program, CSIS
Agnes Dasewicz, USAID, Power Africa
Alexander Dixon, The Aspen Institute
M. Eric V. Guichard, Homestrings Ltd
Maya Harris, U.S. Department of Energy
Rachel Ishofsky, InnoAfrica
Paula Jackson, American Association of Blacks in Energy
Dr. Lawrence Jones, Center for Sustainable Development in Africa
Richenda Van Leeuwen, U.N. Foundation
Katherine Lucey, Solar Sister
Radha Muthiah, Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves
Dr. Jacques Sebisaho, Amani Global Works
Frank Verrastro, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS
9. Rached Ghannouchi on Tunisia’s Democratic Transition
Wednesday, February 26 | 12pm – 1:30pm
Carnegie Endowment, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW
Amid a series of setbacks for pluralism and citizen rights in the Middle East, Tunisia has again provided a positive example for the region. In a landmark step, the country’s Islamic and secular political forces reached agreement on a constitution that embraces equal rights and provides a foundation for Tunisia’s transition to democracy. But while progress has been made, the country still faces serious economic and political challenges, as well as simmering ideological tensions and the rise of radical Salafism.
Rached Ghannouchi, co-founder and president of Tunisia’s Ennahda Party, will give an address on what lies ahead for his country. Carnegie’s Marwan Muasher will moderate the discussion.
SPEAKERS
Rached Ghannouchi
Rached Ghannouchi co-founded the Ennahda Movement, an Islamist group that is currently Tunisia’s largest political party and the dominant participant in a coalition that has governed the country since the October 2011 elections. After spending more than two decades in exile for his political activism, Ghannouchi returned to Tunisia in January 2011 to participate in the country’s democratic transition. Widely recognized as one of the world’s most influential Islamic thinkers, he was named one of TIME’s one hundred most influential people in the world in 2012.
Marwan Muasher
Marwan Muasher is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He previously served as foreign minister and deputy prime minister of Jordan.
10. Egypt’s Economy: Addressing the Challenges Ahead
Wednesday, February 26 | 12 – 1:30pm
SEIU Conference Center, 1800 Massachusetts Ave NW
Three years after Egypt’s January 25 revolution, triggered in part by a demand for greater economic opportunity, Egypt’s economy remains fragile, with slowing GDP growth, declining foreign investment, and youth unemployment at levels that threaten ongoing social unrest. With presidential elections expected this spring, The Middle East Institute will host a discussion about the economic challenges and opportunities faced by Egypt’s future leadership and what more the international community can do to help encourage growth. The discussion will feature Shantayanan Devarajan, Chief Economist of the Middle East and North Africa Region at the World Bank, Ahmed Ghoneim, professor of economics at Cairo University, Zubair Iqbal, adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute, and Steve Lutes, director of Middle East Affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. MEI vice president for policy and research Paul Salem will moderate the event.
11. Getting Beyond 2014 in Afghanistan
Friday, February 28 | 9am – 12:30pm
U.S. Institute of Peace 2301 Constitution Ave NW
Please join the U.S. Institute of Peace, Voice of America, and Alliance in Support of the Afghan People for this two panel public event that will examine the U.S.-Afghan relationship, both its history and its future potential.
Agenda:
9:00am to 9:15am | Welcome & Introduction
9:15am to 9:35am | Keynote Address
Ambassador James F. Dobbins (TBC)
Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, U.S. Department of State
9:35am to 10:50am | Afghanistan and the United States: The Long View
Clare Lockhart
Director and Founder, Institute for State Effectiveness
David Sedney
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia, U.S. Department of Defense
Alex Thier
Assistant to the Administrator, U.S. Agency for International Development
Dr. Andrew Wilder, Moderator
Vice President, Center for South and Central Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace
10:50am to 11:05am | Coffee Break
11:05am to 12:30pm | The Future of Media in Afghanistan
(This session will be introduced by a short film produced by VOA)
Peter Bergen
Director, National Security Program, New America Foundation
Danish Karokhel
Director, Pajhwok Afghan News
Najib Sharifi
Director, Afghan Journalists Safety Committee/Afghan Voices
David Ensor
Director, Voice of America
12. North Korea after Jang Sung Taek and the Outlook for Inter-Korean Relations
Friday, February 28 | 3:30 – 5pm
6th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center; 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW
The purge and execution of Jang Sung Taek was caused by the combination of a struggle over economic interests and political power as well as shortcomings of the Military-first System. While it is too early to determine what the consequences of Jang’s execution are in terms of the political stability and future policy directions of the Kim Jong Un regime, this panel will explore some possibilities, particularly in terms of inter-Korean relations.
SPEAKERS
Jinwook Choi is a senior fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), which he joined in 1993. He was formerly KINU’s acting President and President of the Korea Association for North Korean Studies (KANKS). Dr. Choi is currently a member of various policy advisory committees of the ROK government: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Unification, Korea Communications Commission, and the National Unification Advisory Group. His research interests include North Korean politics and unification policy. Dr. Choi received his Ph.D. in political science from the University of Cincinnati in 1992.
Hazel Smith is Professor and Director of Korean Studies at the University of Central Lancashire, UK. She was previously a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and Professor of Humanitarianism and Security at Cranfield University, UK, a member of the Research Committee of the UK Economic and Social Research Council and an elected fellow of the Royal Society of Arts. Her core area of research is on the economics, society, politics and international relations of North Korea. She has researched the country for over twenty years and lived and worked in North Korea for nearly two years, on secondment to UNICEF and the World Food Programme.
James F. Person is the Senior Program Associate for the History and Public Policy Program and coordinator of the North Korea International Documentation Project. Person is co-editor of the NKIDP Working Paper Series and the History and Public Policy Program Critical Oral History Conference Series and has worked as a consultant on historical documentaries. He received his Ph.D. in Modern Korean History from The George Washington University
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