Tag: Jordan
Survey says
Tuesday Jay Leveton presented the results of the 2014 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller survey at the American Security Project. It focuses on Arab youth perspectives, concerns and aspirations throughout the region. The survey consisted of 3,500 face-to-face interviews conducted over the past year across sixteen countries in the Middle East. The sample was split equally between males and females ranging from 18 to 24 years old. Leveton highlighted the top ten findings:
- Arab youth are embracing modern values. 46% of Arab youth believe that traditional values are outdated and belong in the past. This number has risen from only 17% in 2011, demonstrating a shift away from traditional values. This change is also reflected in the decreasing influence of parents, family, and religion on Arab youth.
- They remain confident in their national government’s abilities. Arab youth show approximately 60% confidence in the government’s ability to address living standards, economic stability, war, unemployment and terrorism. There is great surprise in this confidence, specifically in countries that have suffered from economic hardship or political instability following the Arab Spring. Approval of the impact of the Arab Spring has declined from 72% in 2012 to 54% in 2014, most likely due to the continuous civil unrest and political instability in countries such as Egypt and Syria.
- They are increasingly concerned about the rising cost of living and unemployment. 63% of Arab youth are concerned about growing living expenses, while 42% expressed significant worry over unemployment. Approximately half are apprehensive about their own national economy. However, 55% of youth in countries outside of the GCC are concerned about unemployment, while only 39% within the GCC. This is due to the GCC’s proven ability to assist in job creation, while countries in North Africa and the Levant struggle with their youth unemployment rates.
- Arab youth believe that the biggest obstacle in the Middle East is civil unrest. 55% believe that the recent uprisings and instability are the greatest impediments to the advancement of the region. 38% believe that the lack of democracy is the greatest issue, while some believe it is the threat of terrorism.
- They are increasingly looking towards entrepreneurship as a source of opportunity. 67% feel that the younger generation is more likely to start a business than in previous generations. This entrepreneurial spirit hints at the perceived opportunities in starting one’s own business, specifically in response to some governments’ inability to provide jobs for their youth.
- The country that the younger Arab generation would most like to live in is the United Arab Emirates. 39% said that the UAE is the ideal country they would move to, while 21% said the United States, and 14% said Saudi Arabia. The UAE is the model country for Arab youth in terms of the right balance of governmental responsibility, national economy, foreign relations, etc. The United States has remained high in favor in Arab youth perspectives.
- Arab youth see their country’s biggest allies to be Saudi Arabia and the UAE. 36% believe that Saudi Arabia is their country’s biggest ally and 33% said the UAE. This was followed by Qatar, Kuwait, and lastly the United States, which marks a shift away from Western countries as the largest allies.
- They have a new concern for obesity and rising health issues. Over the past year, there has been a sharp increase in the percentage of youth concerned about obesity from 12% in 2013 to 26% in 2014. An increasing number of the younger generation is worried about diabetes, cancer and heart disease. Among all countries, 52% of youth feel as though the healthcare in their country has remained the same over the past year, while 34% believe that it has improved.
- They believe that the government should subsidize energy costs and aren’t too concerned about climate change. 74% believe that energy, electricity, and transport fuel should be subsidized by the government. This comes from the rising concern about the cost of living in each respective country. While this is the greatest worry among youth, concern for climate change and the environment is a very low priority at only 6%.
- There has been a great increase in daily news consumption, specifically through online media and social networking sites. Television has been the most popular source of news for the sixth year in a row with 75% of Arab youth using it as their most frequent news source. However, a declining number of youth see the television as the most trusted source of news– 39% now view social media as the most reliable source, rising from 22% in 2013.
While the 2014 survey ranges across sixteen countries that vary in political, economic, and social characteristics, there is nonetheless a great sense of continuity in the hopes, concerns, and priorities of Arab youth in the region.
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There is more thankless work to be done
Lakhtar Brahimi, the UN special envoy for Syria during the better part of the last two years, resigned yesterday, with appropriate apologies to the Syrian people. In many obvious senses, the UN has been a colossal failure in Syria:
- it has failed to bring about a political settlement between the regime and its opposition,
- it has not prevented 150,000 deaths and millions of people displaced,
- it hasn’t even managed more than local ceasefires,
- it delivers humanitarian aid mostly behind regime lines, and
- it has been unable to get concerted regional or great power action to end the war.
But looked at from a different angle it has also managed to do quite well: even before Brahimi’s appointment, it put forward a plan for an end to the fighting, it deployed international monitors, it withdrew them when it became apparent they weren’t doing any good, it managed two Geneva conferences (the first in 2012 at least produced a joint US/Russian plan and the second got the warring parties to the same table), it has helped managed the process of eliminating Syria’s chemical weapons, it has documented human rights abuses, and it has provided absolutely vital humanitarian assistance to large numbers of vulnerable civilians.
The UN is only as good as its member states allow it to be. It is not a miracle worker. But it is also not finished yet, even if Brahimi deservedly wants to withdraw.
So what should it do next? Given the failure of the Geneva 2 talks, and the apparent fruitlessness of further efforts along those lines, what should the UN and its specialized agencies do to alleviate suffering, protect civilians, increase the odds of an eventual political settlement (or hasten its arrival) and reduce the likelihood of a burdgeoning conflict that engulfs Lebanon, Iraq and maybe even Turkey and Jordan?
There are several options, not mutually exclusive:
- Deliver 360 degree aid: The bulk of UN humanitarian assistance has gone people in need in regime-controlled territory. The UN agencies could join many nongovernmental organizations in providing ample humanitarian assistance across borders from Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan, thus enabling it to deliver more to rebel-held areas.
- Facilitate regional dialogue: While they have embassies in each others’ capitals, the Saudis and Iranians are barely on speaking terms and conducting a proxy war in Syria; refocusing them on common interests like countering violent extremists and maintaining state structures in the Levant could improve the situation. It is a good sign that the Saudis yesterday invited the Iranian foreign minister for a visit.
- Begin planning for post-war reconstruction and transition: When the war ends, as it inevitably will, the UN will be called upon to support reconstruction; it should be thinking about that now, helping to negotiate local ceasefires where possible and to build the local governing structures and civil society that can support the reconstruction process. Efforts of this sort are vital to improving the prospects for a democratic transition in Syria.
- Provide a moral compass: the UN could do more to publicize war crimes and crimes against humanity, it could take a strong position against the presidential “election” Assad is planning to conduct under thoroughly unfair and unfree conditions June 3, it could insist more loudly on protection of civilians and humanitarian access, it could get religious leaders to insist on observance of the laws of war.
- Cut off regime and terrorist financing: The sanctions on the Syrian regime are not nearly as tight as they might be, and terrorist organizations like ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) as well as Jabhat al Nusra are still receiving international funds as well as arms and other assistance from abroad. A more concerted effort to reduce the availability of resources could help de-escalate the conflict and reduce the harm to civilians.
There are arguments against all these propositions. The UN generally requires the permission of the host country to deliver aid from any direction. The regime could conceivably boot the UN from Damascus if it tries without permission. It is not easy for the UN to get the Saudis talking, as they tend to be both secretive and hierarchical. Local level reconstruction efforts to establish a minimum of governance and civil society require a capillary international presence in rebel-held areas, where security is dicey. He who holds a moral compass will not always be welcomed by those–on both sides of the war–who don’t.
But the UN is a reflection of ourselves. If we want these things done, the organization will find at least some people and means to get them done. The soft-spoken and precise Brahimi, well-suited to the high political level he has been dealing at, would not have necessarily been the best person for these tasks. The US needs to lead an effort to ensure that Brahimi’s departure does not end the UN’s focus on Syria. There is more thankless work to be done.
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Weekend viewing
Your serious weekend humanitarian viewing:
And something, quite serious in its own way, for the funny bone:
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All deliberate speed, please
UN Secretary General Ban is marking the third anniversary of the Syrian uprising, which by my reckoning is March 15, by appealing to Russia and the US to revive peace talks. That’s his job, but prospects are not good.
The Asad regime continues to make slow progress on the battlefield. The opposition continues to insist that he step down to initiate a transition to democracy. There is no “zone of possible agreement.” Asad is preparing to conduct what he will call an election this spring to reconfirm his hold on power. The conditions in regime-controlled areas will not permit the election to be anything like free or fair. The conditions in liberated and contested areas won’t allow an election to occur at all. But Asad will claim legitimacy. Russia will concur.
In the US, consciousness of the horrors occurring in Syria is growing. The recent reports of the Save the Children and UNICEF boosted the case for humanitarian relief. The US has already been generous, even to a fault, as it appears to be buying tolerance for the failure to bring about a political resolution of the conflict. Russia, more committed to realpolitik, continues to arm, finance and provide political support to the regime. The crisis in Crimea leaves little oxygen in Washington for Syria. There is an argument for replying to Putin’s moves in Ukraine by strengthening opposition efforts in Syria, but I am not seeing signs that it is winning the day.
Some key members of the Syrian Opposition Coalition (Etilaf) will be in DC next week making the case for more support, including to the more moderate fighters. What Etilaf needs to do is convince the Obama Administration that vital American interests are at risk in Syria. The two most striking are the risk of extremism putting down deep roots in Syria and the risk of state collapse, both of which would affect not only Syria but its neighbors, especially Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan. Perhaps eventually also Turkey and even Israel, whose boundary with Syria in occupied Golan could become hotter than it has been for many years.
Etilaf has not yet convinced Washington that it can be an effective bulwark against these threats. The Coalition has precious little control over even the relative moderates among the fighters. It has little to no capacity to counter Jabhat al Nusra or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the former the official al Qaeda franchisee and the latter its Iraq-based competitor. Etilaf favors preservation of the Syrian state, but with every passing day that becomes less likely. Nor has Etilaf demonstrated a lot of traction with the ad hoc administrative councils that pop up in liberated areas.
Where Etilaf showed itself to best advantage was at the Geneva 2 talks, where it outmaneuvered the Asad regime and scored lots of good points in favor of a managed transition and against the horrors of what Asad is doing. There is irony then in Etilaf emphasizing the limits of diplomacy, which is the arena in which it has done best.
That is not however a good reason to revive the talks, which really went nowhere. Nor can they be expected to, given what is happening on the battlefield. Until Iran and Russia are convinced that they risk more by continuing to support Asad rather than abandoning him, Tehran and Moscow will provide the edge he needs to continue to gain ground, albeit slowly. This is a formula for more war, not less.
A couple of weeks ago, the Obama Administration was thought to be looking at new options for Syria. There is no sign they have emerged from the “interagency” labyrinth. That’s not surprising. It took 3.5 years for something meaningful to emerge from the National Security Council in Bosnia, and depending on how you count at least that long in Kosovo. Only in Afghanistan and in Iraq have such decisions proved quick, mistakenly and disastrously so in Iraq.
Deliberation is wise. But if it takes too long, vital American interests in blocking extremists and maintaining the states of the Levant may suffer irreparable damage. Not to mention the harm to Syrians, who deserve better. All deliberate speed, please.
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The growing Syrian refugee crisis
Wednesday the Aspen Institute Levant Program discussed policies for the growing Syrian refugee crisis. The second group of panelists consisted of Assistant Secretary Anne Richard, Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration (US Department of State); François Stamm, Deputy Head of the North America Delegation, International Committee of the Red Cross and Oubai Shahbandar, Senior Consultant to the Syrian Coalition. Toni Verstandig, Chair of the Middle East Programs at the Aspen Institute, moderated.
Anne Richard‘s primary concern is the 3.3 million Syrians in hard-to-reach areas of the country. The international community has the potential to help immensely, but does not have access to those most in need. The good news is that the US has been a leading donor in response to the Syrian crisis. It has donated $1.7 billion in humanitarian aid to the UNHCR and the Red Cross. Read more
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Tunisia: the bright spot
Maia Blume, a master’s student at SAIS, writes:
Carnegie Endowment hosted a discussion Wednesday with Rached Ghannouchi, co-founder of Tunisia’s Ennahda Party, moderated by Marwan Muasher, vice president of the Carnegie Endowment and former Foreign Minister of Jordan.
Muasher sees Tunisia as the one bright spot in the region. It now has the most pluralistic, democratic and progressive constitution in the Arab world. Compromise is critical to progress, and Tunisia’s various political factions have succeeded in overcoming their differences. It should be recognized as a model for the Arab world. Ghannouchi himself helped steer his party toward compromise, as Ennahda relinquished control of the government in order to pave the way for passage of the constitution. The role of religion in politics has not yet been decided, and Tunisia is facing mounting economic challenges, but its progress thus far should not be understated.
Ghannouchi said the Tunisian model has proven that democracy can be realized around the world. Fundamentalism only leads to chaos and destruction. The cost of giving up is less than showing patience for the democratic process to take hold. Countries in the region need time to become accustomed to democracy after decades of despotism and tyranny. Because of the Tunisian commitment to the process, the constitution has gained the widest possible consensus. Read more
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