Tag: Jordan
One state, two states, three states, four are all possible
Friends ask: what does the latest Gaza war portend for the two-state solution? Is it dead? Is a one-state solution now inevitable? Are there other possibilities?
It is clearer than ever that Prime Minister Netanyahu is an opponent of the two-state solution. The West Bank settlements and related infrastructure, evictions of Palestinians in East Jerusalem, and unequal treatment of Palestinian citizens of Israel make his preference clear: one state with more rights for Jews than for Arabs. Some call this “apartheid,” which was the more formalized South African system of segregation. Call it what you will, it is not democratic. The days when Israel could be regarded as the only democracy in the Middle East are long gone.
One state with equal rights is conceivable, but in practice impossible. Arabs and Jews are already pretty much equal in numbers between Jordan and the Mediterranean. Even secular Israeli Jews want their state to be Jewish. It can’t be Jewish if there is only one state. Nor are the Palestinians likely to afford Jews equal rights in a one-state Palestine after having been deprived of them for 75 years in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza.
There is another version of the one-state solution that Netanyahu and other Israeli Jewish leaders like. They would be happy to see Egypt take Gaza back and Jordan take the West Bank back. The problem is neither Cairo nor Amman wants the Palestinians or the territory they occupy. Egypt has enough trouble in the Sinai peninsula with Islamist extremists. It has no interest in hosting Hamas, which originates in the Muslim Brotherhood. The Jordanian monarchy figures it already has enough Palestinians, who make up about 50% of the population. Governing the Palestinians in their enclaves on the West Bank would be an enormous challenge for Amman.
There is of course the possibility of a three state solution: Gaza, Israel, and the West Bank. Gaza’s political development for more than a decade has been independent of the Palestinian Authority, whose writ is largely limited to the West Bank. The two Palestinian proto-states are very different: Gaza is a contiguous, crowded, territory without Israeli on-the-ground presence while the West Bank is a Swiss cheese of Palestinian communities surrounded by armed Israeli settlements and the Israeli army. The current situation is close to this model, which in many respects is difficult to distinguish from the one-state solution with unequal rights.
Four states? That would be Gaza, Jewish Israel and West Bank, Palestinians with Israeli citizenship, and West Bank Palestinians. This, too, bears some resemblance to the current situation, because Palestinians with Israeli citizenship are not afforded equal rights or benefits, but they lack their own governing structures. Creating such structures with executive and legislative authority would be a gigantic problem for Israel, but it is the natural course of action now that the latest Gaza war has awakened the political consciousness of Palestinians who live in Israel proper. Judging from my conversations over the years with them, they would not accept governance by Hamas or the Palestinian Authority.
Anyone can have their preferences among these options, and there may be more. I favor the simpler of solutions over the more complicated ones, because life is already complicated. Equal rights is a simple solution. One state won’t work. That makes me conclude two states with equal rights for Jews and Palestinians in both. But I admit it is getting harder than ever to picture the route to this outcome.
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Stevenson’s army, April 19
– Unnamed officials are defending the administration’s process on Afghanistan, noting 4 NSC meetings, 3 principals’ meetings, and 10 deputies meetings.
– FT explains the political maneuverings in Jordan.
– NYT notes the arms race between North and South Korea.
– DOD says it may need surge to help withdrawal from Afghanistan. Note that this same argument angered Obama in 2009, though he acquiesced.
-US may build facilities in Norway.
-Local profs argue against selling arms to Philippines.
– Texas has prize for student papers on intelligence.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 8
– FP says Philippines now willing to accept US troops.
– NYT says ISIS is linking to African militants.
– Israel may have attacked Iranian ship.
– NYT reports US divisions over Taiwan policy.
– Opponents of rare earths mine win in Greenland.
– FT has leaked audio of pressure on Jordan’s former Crown Prince
– Democratic majority in House down to 2. Death or even absence because of illness in Senate or House could thwart legislative plans.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 5
– Something’s happening in Jordan. Not sure what.
– NYT rerports secret talks with Taliban.
– While Afghan president has own peace plan.
-CNN reports Russian buildup in Arctic.
– WaPo has different perspective on US economy
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | August 3 – 9, 2020
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Coronavirus and the Conflict in Syria | August 4, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:15 AM | US Institute of Peace | Register Here
Countries in conflict have been especially hard hit by COVID-19, with the pandemic compounding numerous pre-existing challenges. In Syria, limited humanitarian access, a devastated health care system, and unreliable data have hampered the response—particularly in areas outside of regime control, where autonomous authorities struggle with minimal testing capabilities and access to aid. As the virus begins to make significant inroads into the conflict-affected country, there are also worries about how the virus will impact the millions of Syrians currently displaced.
Speakers:
The Honorable Nancy Lindborg: introductory remarks
President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
David Lillie: Executive Director, Syrian American Medical Society
Dr. Mohammad Al-Haj Hamdo: Health Coordinator in Northeast Syria, Syria Relief
Dr. Hamza Alsaied Hasan: Quality and Development Manager for Northwest Syria, Syrian American Medical Society
Dr. Amjad Rass: Chairman of the Northern Syria Medical Relief Committee, Syrian American Medical Society
Dr. Bachir Tajaldin: Senior Program Manager for Turkey, Syrian American Medical Society
Mona Yacoubian (moderator): Senior Advisor to the Vice President, Middle East and Africa, U.S. Institute of Peace
- Gender and Displacement in the Middle East during COVID-19 | August 4, 2020 | 10:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
As the global refugee crisis continues amid the spread of Covid-19 and economic collapse, displaced women face growing dangers in the Middle East. Women refugees and IDPs are at greater risk of domestic and gender-based violence, and many struggle with new roles as both primary income earners and sole caregivers of their children in unfamiliar environments. Additionally, sexist legal systems have become a push factor for women refugees, and insufficient legal protections exist for women refugees in many host countries.
How does the lens of gender help to understand the female migrant experience? How do changing social and economic roles impact the livelihoods and safety of displaced women? What policies and practices can be implemented to provide greater protection from violence and insecurity for women refugees?
Speakers:
Shaza Al Rihawi: Researcher, Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories; co-founder, Network for Refugee Voices
Miriam Azar: In-Country Representative for Lebanon and Turkey, The Malala Fund
Devon Cone: Senior advocate for women and girls, Refugees International
Dalal Yassine: Executive director, Middle East Voices
Hafsa Halawa (moderator): Nonresident scholar, MEI
- Jordan in 2020: Protests and Pandemic | August 5, 2020 | 10:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The start of the new decade in Jordan has been marred by unrest. In January, thousands of Jordanians took to the streets to protest both President Trump’s Middle East peace plan and the gas deal signed between Israel and Jordan. This wave of dissent came on the heels of the 2019 protests against increased austerity measures, a follow up to the 2018 movement that saw the resignation of Hani Mulki’s government. Though Jordan quickly adopted stringent measures to combat the virus, the economy will suffer a huge blow, exacerbating Jordan’s existing development challenges and popular discontent. Furthermore, the pandemic prompted troubling restrictions on freedom of speech, with an April decree stating that sharing anything that may “cause panic” about the pandemic is punishable with up to three years in prison.
How have protest movements in Jordan been impacted by Covid-19, and what do recent protests over honor killings and gender based violence portend for progress in this area? How do these long standing grievances meet the current moment of the impending Israeli annexation? What will be the long term impact of the pandemic on Jordan’s economy and human rights, especially for the country’s millions of refugees?
Speakers:
Laith Al Ajlouni: Political economist
Rana Husseini: Journalist, author, and human rights activist
Sara Kayyali: Syria researcher, Middle East and North Africa Division, Human Rights Watch
Oraib Al-Rantawi (moderator): Founder and director general, Al Quds Center for Political Studies
- Why Did the United States Invade Iraq? A Conversation with Robert Draper | August 5, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Watch Here
The 2003 invasion of Iraq is one of the most debated, misunderstood, and consequential foreign policy episodes in modern U.S. history. In To Start a War, New York Times bestselling author Robert Draper offers the definitive account of the march to war in Iraq.
Join us for a conversation between Robert Draper and Ambassador William J. Burns, former U.S. deputy secretary of state, about the war, its consequences, and its lessons.
Speakers:
Robert Draper: contributing writer to the New York Times Magazine and National Geographic and a correspondent to GQ
William J. Burns: President of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He previously served as U.S. deputy secretary of state.
- Pakistan’s National Security Outlook | August 5, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM | United States Institute of Peace| Register Here
Join USIP for a conversation with Dr. Moeed Yusuf, Special Assistant to Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan on national security and strategic policy planning and a member of Pakistan’s coronavirus response team. The discussion will look at what these developments mean for Pakistan’s national security outlook towards its neighbors and its relationship with the U.S., as well as how the pandemic impacts Pakistan’s security and economic policy.
Speakers:
The Honorable Nancy Lindborg, opening remarks: President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
Dr. Moeed Yusuf: Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on National Security and Strategic Policy Planning, Pakistan
Former Associate Vice President, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Amb. Richard Olson (moderator): Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace and former Special Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan
- After Qassem Suleimani: The Islamic Republic’s Strategy for the Arab World | August 6, 2020 | 10:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The January assassination of Qassem Soleimani shocked the leadership in Tehran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had not expected the United States to escalate tensions between the two countries in such a manner. The assassination of Soleimani was an effort to change Tehran’s strategic calculations and policies for the Middle East. With continued sanctions imposed by the United States, regional tension, and the loss of a key decision maker, Iran is facing intensified challenges to achieve its goals at home and in the region. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to welcome a group of experts to assess Iranian policy towards the Arab world following the death of Soleimani and to discuss how Arab states are reacting to Iran’s actions.
How has Iran’s strategy in the Arab world performed following Soleimani’s death? In what ways have proxy forces in the Middle East that operate under Tehran’s command been affected? Who is left to make key decisions about the Islamic Republic’s involvement in the Arab states, and are we faced with a weaker IRGC Quds force after Soleimani? Finally, what do Arabs think of Iranian policies aimed at them?
Speakers:
Tarek Osman: Author and broadcaster
Ariane Tabatabai: Middle East fellow, Alliance for Securing Democracy, German Marshall Fund of the United States
Morad Vaisibiame: Journalist and editor, Radio Farda, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Alex Vatanka (Moderator): Director, Iran program and senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
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Stevenson’s army, March 4
-NYT says Iran has enough fuel for a bomb.
– Trump talks with a Taliban leader, while the US strikes at Taliban.
– David Ignatius warns of trouble in Jordan.
– EU supports Greek efforts to seal border.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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