Tag: Kyrgyzstan
Make Putin watch his back
Alexander Vindman is the former National Security Council official who gave vital incriminating testimony in Trump’s first impeachment. He blew the whistle on the President’s phone call with President Zelensky of Ukraine, in which Trump sought dirt on then candidate Joe Biden. Now a doctoral student at SAIS, Vindman has interesting, if discouraging, things to say about Russian intentions with respect to Ukraine:
Not a lot of good options in Ukraine
Vindman believes Russia is likely to invade Ukraine, with the aim of keeping Ukraine in its sphere of influence and making it a failed state, one that cannot offer a democratic model for those who want to escape Moscow’s tentacles. Sanctions he thinks won’t have much more impact than in the past, because Russia has hardened its economy against them. In addition, Putin controls a $620 billion sovereign wealth fund, and China will help cushion the blow.
The best military hope lies in NATO countries. The US could station more troops in NATO countries near Ukraine. They, especially those on the eastern front that Russia threatens, could in turn train the Ukrainians and perhaps deploy troops and equipment to help the Ukrainian army defend against attack.
But Putin is vulnerable elsewhere
Vindman ignores Putin’s vulnerabilities beyond Ukraine. One of these was dramatically apparent in Kazakhstan over the last few days, when protesters challenged President Tokayev. The protests quickly turned violent. Tokayev sought Russian help to protect vital installations and ordered his forces to shoot to kill.
The Russians did not send a big force–supposedly only 2500 troops–but Putin is also saddled with defending his annexation of Crimea, besieged Belarusan President Lukashenko, secessionist provinces in Georgia, and the homicidal Syrian President Assad, not to mention maintaining Russian forces in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. The Russians are also active through proxy forces in Libya and the Central African Republic. They are building bases in half a dozen African countries. Russian empire-building is reaching further than even Moscow’s Soviet-era ambitions.
A crisis in any one of these places could bring a halt to Putin’s ambitions in Ukraine.
Including at home
Putin is also vulnerable at home. While he has acquired de facto autocratic powers, he is less popular than once he was. Corruption is his Achilles heel. The Kremlin has murdered one potential rival and poisoned, then imprisoned, another. A free and fair election could well do Putin in, so he won’t allow that. He also faces local ethnic and religious minority resistance to his increasingly nationalist and chauvinist rule.
If the Americans want to protect Ukraine, they will need not only to beef up its defenses and undermine Russia’s economy, but also figure out how to exploit Putin’s political and military vulnerabilities beyond Ukraine.
Make Putin watch his back.
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Peace Picks | May 10-14, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- What does the future hold for NATO in the MENA region? | May 10, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative in collaboration with the Arab News Research and Studies is pleased to host an online Briefing Room Conversation to discuss the future of NATO in the Middle East-North Africa region.
Speakers:
Luke Coffey
Director, Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, The Heritage Foundation
Iulia Joja
Senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI; adjunct professor, Georgetown University
Tarek Ali Ahmad (Moderator)
Head, Arab News Research and Studies
2. Iraqi-US Relations Under Changing Administrations | May 10, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
As President Joe Biden completes the first 100 days of his presidency, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi nears his one-year anniversary in office. Iraq and the United States held their first strategic dialogue under the Biden administration in early April, discussing bilateral security cooperation, economic development in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and protection of democracy and freedom of speech, among other topics. These two new administrations will now have to set the course for the future of Iraqi-U.S. relations.
Speakers:
Suzanne Maloney (Introduction)
Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy, Brookings Institute
Joey Hood (Keynote)
Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, US Department of State
Abbas Kadhim
Iraq Initiative Director and Resident Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council
Marsin Alshamary
Post-Doctoral Fellow in Foreign Policy, Brookings Institute
Louisa Loveluck (Moderator)
Baghdad Bureau Chief, The Washington Post
3. Border Battle: Assessing the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan Clashes | May 10, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The death and destruction wrought by the recent violence between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the Ferghana Valley is a tragedy, with scores of victims on both sides of the border. Worryingly, the clashes might yet have broader implications for both countries and their Central Asian neighbors. How might the confrontation affect the rights of ethnic minorities, particularly in the various exclaves throughout the region? How can Bishkek and Dushanbe avoid a security dilemma that might further destabilize an already tense situation?
Speakers:
Dr. George Gavrilis
Fellow, University of California-Berkeley’s Center for Democracy, Toleration, and Religion
Jonathan Henick
Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, US Department of State
Akylai Karimova
Kyrgyz civil activist based in Osh
Dr. Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
Anahita Saymidinova
Dushanbe-based journalist for Iran International TV
Ambassador John Herbst (Moderator)
Director of the Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council.
4. Restricted Data: The History of Nuclear Secrecy in the United States | May 10, 2021 | 4:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
The American atomic bomb was born in secrecy. From the moment scientists first conceived of its possibility to the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and beyond, there were efforts to control the spread of nuclear information and the newly discovered scientific facts that made such powerful weapons possible. Drawing on troves of declassified files, including records released by the government for the first time through Wellerstein’s efforts, Restricted Data traces the complex evolution of the US nuclear secrecy regime from the first whisper of the atomic bomb through the mounting tensions of the Cold War and into the early twenty-first century.
Speakers:
Alex Wellerstein
Stevens Institute of Technology
Christian F. Ostermann (Co-Moderator)
Director, History and Public Policy Program; Cold War International History Project; North Korea Documentation; Nuclear Proliferation International History Project, Woodrow Wilson Center
Eric Arnesen (Co-Moderator)
Former Fellow, Professor of History, The George Washington University
Kathleen M. Vogel
Former Wilson Center Fellow; Arizona State University
Matthew Connelly
Former Fellow; Columbia University
5. Addressing Security Concerns in the Eastern Mediterranean | May 11, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | CSIS | Register Here
As a vital partner for the United States in the Eastern Mediterranean, Greece is witnessing significant shifts in its regional security environment. Minister Panagiotopoulos will discuss the reasons behind growing instability in the region and Greece’s initiatives to advance security and stability in the Eastern Mediterranean, working closely with regional partners. As NATO prepares to update its Strategic Concept starting this summer, Minister Panagiotopoulos will also reflect on Greece’s priorities for the updated concept; discuss how NATO can enhance its political cohesion and address new challenges; and outline ideas for expanding and deepening the U.S.-Greece strategic defence partnership. The conversation will be moderated by Heather A. Conley, CSIS Senior Vice President for Europe, Russia, and the Arctic, and Rachel Ellehuus, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia program.
Speakers:
Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos
Minister of National Defence, Greece
Heather A. Conley
Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia and the Arctic; and Director, Europe, Russia and the Eurasia Program, CSIS
Rachel Ellehuus
Deputy Director, Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program
6. Nonviolent Action and Minority Inclusion | May 11, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Mass movements employing nonviolent action have a demonstrated track record of improving democracy. But how deep and meaningful are these changes? Does nonviolent action merely change political institutions, or can it also address deeper drivers of social and political conflict, particularly for the most marginalized?
To better understand the intersection of nonviolent action and peace processes, join USIP for the final event in our series on people power, peace and democracy. The event series highlights multiple groundbreaking research projects and features insights from activists, international practitioners and policymakers that provide viewers with actionable takeaways.
This USIP event features lessons learned from cutting-edge research showing how nonviolent action affects political and economic inequality — particularly for historically excluded social and ethnic groups — using a cross-national statistical study and in-depth case studies from recent political transitions in Nepal and Indonesia. The research also specifically examines how movements can employ dialogue, negotiation and mediation to better ensure that political transitions following nonviolent action campaigns lead to greater inclusion for marginalized groups. This event will explore the important implications for both policy and practice in ensuring more inclusive democratization processes in the aftermath of nonviolent action.
Speakers:
Jonathan Pinckney (Moderator)
Senior Researcher, Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace
Mohna Ansari
Member, National Human Rights Commission of Nepal
Subindra Bogati
Founder and Chief Executive, Nepal Peacebuilding Initiative
Titik Firawati
Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science, Northern Illinois University
Rosa Emilia Salamanca
Director, Institute for Social and Economic Research and Action
Deepak Thapa
Director, Social Science Baha
Ches Thurber
Assistant Professor, Northern Illinois University
7. Developments in Iran: Scandal, Schism and US-Iranian Relations | May 11, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has sensationally admitted that the Foreign Ministry in Tehran has no power to shape strategic policies. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has also scolded Zarif for questioning Tehran’s regional policies, which are designed and implemented by the Revolutionary Guards. This deep schism inside the Islamic Republic raises some important questions at a time when the US is engaged in direct talks with the Iranians in Vienna.
What is the balance of power between elected and unelected centers of powers in Tehran? How certain can the United States be about the ability of the Iranian state to collectively adhere to any nuclear agreement reached in Vienna? Where does this political reality in Tehran mean for Washington’s Iran policy that continues to impose sanctions on key entities in Iran, including the Revolutionary Guards?
Speakers:
Kenneth Katzman
Senior analyst, Congressional Research Service
Barbara Slavin
Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
Reza Vaisi
Editor, Iran International TV
Alex Vatanka (Moderator)
Director, Iran Program, MEI
8. China-Russia Relations at the Dawn of the Biden Era | May 12, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment: Center for Global Policy | Register Here
While U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia relations have steadily deteriorated, China-Russia cooperation has grown in its stead. On the heels of the contentious U.S.-China Alaska summit, Chinese and Russian foreign ministers met in Guilin to discuss bilateral cooperation on a range of issues and even published a joint statement promoting a shared vision for global governance.
However, it is unclear to what extent Russian and Chinese interests will continue to converge. Although both nations have found a common adversary in the United States, any divergence of Russian or Chinese interests could create roadblocks to the two countries’ warming relations. Given China’s increasing economic and political clout, how will Russia manage the relationship in a way that concurrently maintains cooperation with China and protects its own national interests? Will China continue to view Russia as a security and economic partner? And how does the United States view and approach strong China-Russia ties?
Speakers:
Paul Haenle (Moderator)
Maurice R. Greenberg Director Chair, Carnegie-Tsinghua Center, Beijing China
Andrew S. Weiss
James Family Chair and Vice President for Studies, Carnegie Endowment
Guan Guihai
Associate Professor and Executive Vice President, Institute of International and Strategic Studies, Peking University
Vita Spivak
Analyst, Control Risk
9. Middle East Security Establishments and Social Reform | May 12, 2021 | 2:00 PM ET | Belfer Center, Harvard Kennedy School | Register Here
Across the Middle East, the security sector has exercised substantial influence over media, education, and religious institutions, often to the detriment of their societies and American interests. Could they instead become a force for positive reform, and what role might their American allies play in helping them? Please join the Intelligence and Defense Projects for a seminar with Middle East expert Joseph Braude, who will discuss these issues and provide a number of policy suggestions.
Speakers:
Joseph Braude
President of the Center for Peace Communications
10. Czechmate? Russia’s Relations with Czechia go up in Smoke | May 13, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
As the Czech Republic and Russia spar over groundbreaking reports of Russian intelligence operations in Czechia, key lessons emerge about the Kremlin’s tactics, goals, and the ability to exploit openings from foreign governments to attempt operations with impunity. Importantly, these operations were not just designed to harm Czechia—the 2014 destruction of arms depots holding weapons bound for Ukraine link these attacks to the Kremlin’s broader hybrid war against Kyiv, and show an early operation carried out by the same officers responsible for some of the most high-profile Kremlin attacks on foreign soil in recent years. With diplomatic expulsions and talk of further measures to hold Moscow accountable for killings on Czech soil, this crisis is fast becoming the latest significant flashpoint in Russia’s relations with Europe.
Speakers:
H.E. Jakub Kulhánek (Keynote)
Minister of Foreign Affairs for the Czech Republic,
Ambassador Daniel Fried
Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council
Jakub Janda
Director of the European Values Center for Security Policy
Ambassador Jaroslav Kurfurst
Special Envoy for the Eastern Partnership at the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Laure Mandeville
Senior Reporter at Le Figaro and nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center
Ambassador John Herbst (Moderator)
Director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
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Peace Picks | November 16 – November 20, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Corruption in Kyrgyzstan: The Path Forward | November 16, 2020 | 9:00-10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
It has been over a month since political upheaval in Kyrgyzstan resulted in the collapse of the government of now-former President Sooronbay Jeenbekov and the rise of Sadyr Japarov, a former convict, to the position of acting president. With new presidential elections now planned for January, the country’s political landscape is changing fast, with Japarov implausibly promising an anti-corruption campaign—a key concern of those who protested on the streets in October.
This dramatic shift is driven by growing anger over corruption and poor governance—laid particularly bare by the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, despite the public’s demands for stronger government accountability, corrupt organized crime is still flourishing and poised to have increased influence in a plausible Japarov presidency.
Please join us for a discussion on Kyrgyzstan’s legacies of corruption, prospects for better governance, and popular responses to the recent social and political upheaval the country has witnessed, all based on a new, groundbreaking report released by RFE/RL, Kloop, and OCCRP.
Speakers:
Shirin Aitmatova: former member of Kyrgyz Parliament and a leader of Umut 2020 – a people’s movement that focuses on anti-corruption investigations.
Asel Doolotkeldieva: associate research fellow at the OSCE Academy in Bishkek. Her research examines social mobilization, religiosity and gender, democratization and institution-building, rent-seeking from natural resources, and migration in Kyrgyzstan. She holds a PhD from the University of Exeter.
Bruce Pannier: senior Central Asian affairs correspondent, who writes the Qishloq Ovozi blog and appears regularly on the Majlis podcast for RFE/RL.
Carl Schreck: RFE/RL’s enterprise editor. He has covered politics, crime, business, and sports in Russia and the former Soviet Union for nearly 20 years, including nearly a decade while based in Moscow.
Paul Stronski: senior fellow in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program, where his research focuses on the relationship between Russia and neighboring countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
2. Trans-Atlantic Cooperation and the International Order After the US Election | November 16, 2020 | 9:45 – 11:45 AM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
Over the past four years, the United States has often abdicated its traditional leadership role, leaving allies across the Atlantic to fend for themselves. Now, as Americans and Europeans alike process the results of the U.S. election, significant practical and political questions about the future of the trans-Atlantic relationship and the global order abound. With Joe Biden in the White House, will European leaders be willing to once again rely on the U.S. as an ally? While a Biden administration will certainly be more friendly to trans-Atlantic relations and multilateralism, will this shift be lasting or merely a lapse amid an increasingly isolationist era of American foreign policy? With Republicans likely to retain control of the Senate, what impact would a divided government have on the new administration’s foreign policy?
On Monday, November 16, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a conference to consider these questions and other implications of the next U.S. administration for the future of the international order and trans-Atlantic cooperation. Questions from the audience will follow the discussion.
Schedule and Speakers:
Welcoming Remarks: 9:45 AM – 10:00 AM
Suzanne Maloney: Vice President and Director – Foreign Policy
Henry Alt-Haaker: Senior Vice President, Strategic Partnerships and Robert Bosch Academy – Robert Bosch Stiftung
Panel Discussion: 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM
James Goldgeier: Robert Bosch Senior Visiting Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Fiona Hill: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Stormy-Annika Mildner: Head of Department, External Economic Policy – Federation of German Industries
Rachel Rizzo: Director of Programs – Truman National Security Project; Adjunct Fellow, Transatlantic Program – Center for a New American Security
Marietje Schaake: International Policy Director – Cyber Policy Center at Stanford University
Constanze Stelzenmüller, moderator: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Keynote: 11:00 AM – 11:45 AM
Nathalie Tocci: Director – Istituto Affari Internazionali; Honorary Professor – University of Tübingen
Thomas Wright, moderator: Director – Center on the United States and Europe; Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Project on International Order and Strategy
3. Assessing Perceptions of Affected Communities in Northern Iraq on Peace, Justice and Governance | November 16, 2020 | 11:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative and the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative on Monday, November 16 from 11:30 am – 12:30 pm ET presenting a timely survey which offers a snapshot of the perceptions and attitudes in northern Iraq about peace and justice within communities affected by the conflict with the Islamic State (IS). The discussion will feature Abulrazzaq Al-Saiedi, research manager, Iraq country expert and policy advisor at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Abbas Kadhim, director of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council, Phuong Pham, director of evaluation and implementation science at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Patrick Vinck, research director at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, and moderated by Kirsten Fontenrose, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
The report (available in Arabic) by the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative’s Peace and Human Rights Data Program, details how northern Iraqi communities targeted by the Islamic State (IS) are denied justice. Based on 5,213 interviews conducted in 2019 among a representative sample of internally displaced persons in northern Iraq and residents of the city of Mosul and surrounding areas, the research documents a severe lack of trust in official institutions, particularly in the Government of Iraq itself, stemming in large part from the belief that these institutions do not act in the best interest of the population.
Speakers:
Abulrazzaq Al-Saiedi: Research Manager, Iraq Country Expert, and Policy Advisor, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
Abbas Kadhim: Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council
Phuong Pham: Director of Evaluation and Implementation Science, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
Patrick Vinck: Research Director, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
Kirsten Fontenrose, moderator: Director, Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, Atlantic Council
4. Moldova’s Presidential Elections | November 16, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:15 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
On November 15, incumbent Moldovan President Igor Dodon will face pro-European opposition candidate Maia Sandu in a national run-off election. Sandu has promised to fight corruption, poverty, and reform the criminal justice system. Dodon is considered the most pro-Russian candidate, advocating to make Russian compulsory in schools and to strengthen Moldova’s strategic partnership with Russia. Amb. William Hill, former Moldovan Minister of Foreign Affairs Nicu Popescu, and DGAP Research Fellow Cristina Gherasimov will consider the results of the runoff election, its implications, and how the next president in Chisinau will manage Moldova-Russian relations.
Speakers:
William H. Hill: Global Fellow; Former Professor of National Security Strategy, National War College, Washington D.C.
Nicu Popescu: Director, Wider Europe Programme, European Council on Foreign Relations
Cristina Gherasimov: Research Fellow, Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia, DGAP
Matthew Rojansky, moderator: Director, Kennan Institute
5. US and Iranian Strategies for a Biden Administration | November 17, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The looming arrival of the Joe Biden administration in January 2021 provides the leadership in Tehran with an opportunity to seek a qualitatively different relationship with the United States. President-elect Biden has already expressed a desire to salvage the 2015 nuclear deal, which the Trump administration abandoned in 2018. While Tehran awaits to see what, if any, conditions the Biden team has for the resumption of the diplomatic track and removal of US-led sanctions, a policy fight is already under way inside the Iranian state about the future of US-Iran relations.
The American question in Tehran is not just a foreign policy file but ultimately linked to the question of whether the Islamic Republic opts to continue a revolutionary and militant foreign policy or settles for a path of de-escalation with Washington and other rivals. How much of this policy competition in Tehran will shape Washington’s next steps vis-à-vis Iran?
To discuss these matters and other key challenges in the path of US-Iran relations in the coming Biden administration, we are delighted to host a panel of experts.
Speakers:
Jon Alterman: Senior vice president, Zbigniew Brzezinski chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and director, Middle East Program, CSIS
Hannah Kaviani:Staffer, RFE/RL’s Persian language service, Radio Farda
Behnam Ben Taleblu: Senior fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Alex Vatanka (moderator): Senior fellow and director, Iran program, MEI
6. The Future of Palestinian Politics under a Biden Administration | November 17, 2020; November 19, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:45 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Former Vice President Joe Biden’s election victory over President Donald Trump is likely to produce a major reset in American-Palestinian relations as well as in Washington’s role in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking. No U.S. president had done more to isolate Palestinians and delegitimize Palestinian national aspirations than Trump. Meanwhile, Biden has pledged to reverse the most destructive aspects of Trump’s policies and restore U.S.-Palestinian relations in the hope of salvaging what remains of a two-state solution.
Yet even as the Palestinians breathe a collective sigh of relief at Trump’s departure, the Palestinians’ internal house remains in a state of disarray and decline. The Palestinian national movement, now at one of the lowest points in its history, continues to be racked by political division, institutional stagnation, and a lack of strategic clarity.
To shed light on these and other issues, the Middle East Institute (MEI) invites you to join a two-part webinar series on the Future of Palestinian Politics Under a Biden Administration, moderated by MEI’s Khaled Elgindy
Speakers:
Part 1 – Reviving Palestinian Political Life
Tareq Baconi: Senior analyst, International Crisis Group
Sam Bahour: Ramallah-based business consultant
Mustafa Barghouti:General secretary, Palestinian National Initiative
Noura Erakat: Human rights attorney; assistant professor, Rutgers University
Khaled Elgindy, moderator: Senior fellow and director, Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Part 2 – Toward a Palestinian National Strategy
Dana ElKurd: Researcher, Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies
Mariam Barghouti: Political commentator and writer
Yousef Munayyer: Non-resident fellow, MEI
Nasser AlKidwa: Former Permanent Observer of Palestine to the United Nations and Palestinian Foreign Minister
Khaled Elgindy, moderator: Senior fellow and director, Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
7. Building a Climate Resilient and Just Future for All: Delivering Action and Ambition | November 17, 2020 | 1:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought resilience to the fore. It has laid bare the vulnerability of our societies and economies and exposed the lack of risk planning in countries. During this event, speakers will focus on the need to carry out ambitious actions on building resilience and identify what can be done to set up a decade of action.
This high level event will bring together the outcomes of the Regional Resilience Dialogues and Race to Zero resilience-focused dialogues and highlight how to advance the action of non-state actors and initiatives to deliver outcomes at COP26 and beyond. The High Level Champions, Gonzalo Muñoz and Nigel Topping, will also use this event to share their developing plans for a Race for Resilience campaign as a sister to the Race to Zero campaign to deliver a decade of action.
This dialogue will build upon previous Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action roundtables held at COP23, COP24 and COP25 events, the Global Commission on Adaptation, and from the UN Climate Action Summit and the Call to Action on Adaptation and Resilience.
Speakers:
Opening Remarks
Nigel Topping: High Level Climate Action Champion, UK, COP26
Gonzalo Muñoz: High Level Climate Action Champion, Chile, COP26
Panel Discussions
Panel 1: The Challenge: Why action on Resilience is a must?
Johan Rockstrom: Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Professor in Earth System Science, University of Potsdam; Chair of the Global Resilience Partnership Advisory Council
Saleemul Huq: Director, International Centre for Climate Change & Development (ICCCAD); Chair of Resilience track for UN Food Systems Summit 2021
Emma Howard-Boyd: UK Commissioner, Global Commission on Adaptation and Chair of the Environment Agency
Wanjira Mathai, moderator: Vice President and Regional Director for Africa, World Resources Institute
Panel 2: Opportunities for Ambitious Action
Kathy Baughman McLeod: Senior Vice President and Director, Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center; Atlantic Council, representing the Extreme Heat Resilience Alliance (EHRA)
Zakia Naznin: Programme Manager, Concern Worldwide, representing the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance
Karen Sack: CEO, Ocean Unite, representing Ocean Risk and Resilience Action Alliance
Wanjira Mathai, moderator: Vice President and Regional Director for Africa, World Resources Institute
Panel 3: Delivering Ambition and a Decade of Action
Julio Cordano: Head, Department of Climate Change, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Chile and COP 25 Chilean Presidency Representative
Patrick Verkooijen: Chief Executive Officer, Global Center on Adaptation
Anne-Marie Trevelyan: UK International Champion on Adaptation and Resilience, COP26
Wanjira Mathai, moderator: Vice President and Regional Director for Africa, World Resources Institute
Closing Remarks
Nigel Topping: High Level Climate Action Champion, UK, COP26
Gonzalo Muñoz: High Level Climate Action Champion, Chile, COP26
8. Lebanon: Out with the Old, In with the What? | November 17, 2020 | 16:00 – 17:00 EET | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
While Lebanon’s ruling elite continues to delay the formation of a new cabinet under Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, French President Emmanuel Macron is growing impatient as he watches his initiative and timeline for reforms crumble. The Trump Administration, meanwhile, is still ramping up sanctions on Hezbollah’s allies in government. Where does the government formation stand today? What remains of the French initiative? How might U.S. foreign policy towards Lebanon shift under President-Elect Joe Biden?
Speakers:
Ishac Diwan: Chaire d’Excellence Monde Arabe at Paris Sciences et Lettres and is a professor at the École Normale Supérieure, Paris
Dorothée Schmid: senior research fellow and heads the Turkey and Middle East Program at the French Institute of International Relations.
Randa Slim: senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and a non-resident fellow at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced and International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute.
Maha Yahya: Director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, where her research focuses on citizenship, pluralism, and social justice in the aftermath of the Arab uprisings.
9. What Does the World Expect of President-elect Joe Biden? | November 17, 2020 | 2:30 – 4:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
The next U.S. Administration faces a complicated, volatile world. Please join Wilson Center experts on Russia, China, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and Latin America as they interview colleagues and experts on the ground in their regions to discuss what a Biden Administration means in terms of our relationships around the globe.
Our experts will host a spirited conversation on the foreign policy expectations and challenges confronting the next President of the United States.
Speakers:
Jane Harman: Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center
Cynthia J. Arnson: Director, Latin American Program
Robert Daly: Director, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States
Daniel S. Hamilton: Director, Global Europe Program; Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Distinguished Fellow
Merissa Khurma: Program Manager, Middle East Program
Monde Muyangwa: Africa Program Director
Matthew Rojansky: Director, Kennan Institute
Duncan Wood: Director, Mexico Institute
John Milewski, moderator: Director of Digital Programming; Moderator, Wilson Center NOW
10. Exceptions to the Rules: Civilian Harm and Accountability in the Shadow Wars | November 19, 2020 | 9:30 – 11:00 AM ET | Stimson Center | Register Here
Nearly two decades after 9/11, the CIA and Special Operations Forces have become increasingly involved in U.S. counterterrorism operations around the world –often operating in the shadows and under a growing set of broad exceptions to the rules that govern the lawful use of lethal force, civilian harm mitigation, transparency, and accountability. Join the Stimson Center and the Center for Civilians in Conflict for a discussion of these programs and the launch of a new report examining the tradeoffs involved with normalizing these exceptions, and offering concrete recommendations for increasing public awareness and strengthening oversight and accountability.
Speakers:
Daniel Mahanty: Director, US Program, Center for Civilians in Conflict
Rita Siemion: Director, National Security Advocacy, Human Rights First
Rachel Stohl, Vice President, Stimson Center
Stephen Tankel: Associate Professor, American University; Adjunct Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security
11. Elections in the Black Sea Region | November 19, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Elections are taking place across the Black Sea, including in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. The three countries have Association Agreements with the EU and have benefitted from significant Western support over the last years. All three countries also share the problems of separatist and frozen conflicts on their territories that affect their security and stability. Elections outcomes in all three countries will have important implications for the foreign policy orientation of the countries and their role in the Black Sea region. Elections in the region coincide with the COVID-19 pandemic and an economic crisis with potentially devastating effects for the region. The Middle East Institute (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative is pleased to host a discussion with the Ambassadors of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine to the United States on the election process, outcomes, and implications for the Black Sea region.
How did the election process and the results fair out for Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine? What are the main challenges around the elections in the context of the pandemic and economic crisis? How will the election results impact their foreign policies in the years to come?
Speakers:
David Bakradze: Georgian Ambassador to the United States
Eugen Caras: Moldovan Ambassador to the United States
Yelchenko Volodymyr: Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States
Iulia Joja, moderator: Senior Fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative
12. RESOLVE Network 2020 Global Forum: Violent Extremism in 2020 and Beyond | November 19, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:15 AM ET | USIP | Register Here
The year 2020 has ushered in rapid and significant shifts in existing threats to global security. From the COVID-19 pandemic to climate change and longstanding violent conflict, the pressures facing our current global system are increasingly complex and all-encompassing. Among these, violent extremism remains a significant challenge—shifting as actors adapt and take advantage of ongoing and emerging global shocks and sources of instability.
How has the violent extremism landscape changed in the five years since the “fall” of ISIS? How has rising global instability, populism, and disinformation altered violent extremist operations and ideologies, and vice versa? What challenges do we face in addressing violent extremism in the new threat landscape? Can we apply any lessons from past experiences to address emerging threats and dynamics in 2020 and beyond?
Please join the RESOLVE Network and USIP for a discussion about these challenges and more during part one of RESOLVE’s fifth annual Global Forum series. Convened virtually, the forum will bring together leading experts and researchers for thought-provoking conversations on evolving trends and dynamics in the violent extremist landscape.
Speakers:
Dr. Alastair Reed, opening remarks: Senior Expert and Executive Director of the RESOLVE Network
Dr. Mary Beth Altier: Clinical Associate Professor, Center for Global Affairs, New York University
Dr. Amarnath Amarasingam: Assistant Professor, School of Religion, Queen’s University, member of the RESOLVE Research Advisory Council
Dr. Colin P. Clarke: Senior Research Fellow, The Soufan Center, member of the RESOLVE Research Advisory Council
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Peace Picks | October 26 – October 30, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Elevating Humanitarian Action in Sudan’s Democratic Transition | October 27, 2020 | 10:30 – 11:30 AM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
On October 19, the White House announced it was taking steps to delist Sudan as a state sponsor of terrorism (SST), clearing the way for increased international assistance and opportunities for development financing. Removing Sudan from the SST list is long overdue and comes at a pivotal moment for its nascent political transition. Prior to the Covid-19 crisis, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimated that 9.3 million people in Sudan would need humanitarian assistance in 2020. Now, months of heavy flooding have led to increased displacement, while high levels of inflation are making it increasingly difficult for people to purchase food and limiting the services humanitarian organizations can provide.
Sudan’s ongoing democratic transition has enabled increased humanitarian access for multilateral aid organizations, yet restrictions on NGOs remain, and prospects for enhanced access are uncertain. As peace negotiations and the democratic transition continue, political leaders in Sudan must ensure that meeting humanitarian needs remains at the forefront of their agenda.
In a follow-up to our recent commentary, this webinar will highlight the enduring humanitarian needs in Sudan and examine how Sudanese political actors can prioritize humanitarian needs during the state’s democratic transition. To help understand these issues, we will be joined by Dr. Suliman Baldo, Senior Advisor at The Sentry, and Hala Al-Karib, Regional Director at the Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa.
Speakers:
Dr. Suliman Baldo: Senior Adviser, The Sentry
Hala Al-Karib: Regional Director, Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa
2. Local Elections, National Implications: Ukraine at the Ballot Box | October 27, 2020 | 12:00 PM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Ukraine’s local elections on October 25 are highly contested and impossible to predict. Following President Zelenskyy’s landslide victory last year, he and his party have fallen in the polls, with approval ratings hovering below 35 percent. With deadlocked peace talks, a continued war in the Donbas, stalled reforms, and increased coronavirus cases devastating the economy, a 2019-style victory for Servant of the People is increasingly unlikely. The new electoral code, which bars independents from running in districts with more than 10,000 citizens, further complicates the picture.
Mykhaylo Shtekel, Odesa correspondent and Donbas reporter for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) Ukrainian Service, Nataliya Sedletska, editor-in-chief and host of RFE/RL’s “Schemes: Corruption in Detail”, Adrian Karatnycky, Eurasia Center senior fellow and managing partner at Myrmidon Group LLC, and Brian Mefford, Eurasia Center senior fellow and managing director at Wooden Horse Strategies LLC, will analyze the results and what they mean for Ukraine’s future. Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, moderates.
Speakers:
Mykhaylo Shtekel: Odesa correspondent and Donbas reporter for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) Ukrainian Service
Nataliya Sedletska: editor-in-chief and host of RFE/RL’s “Schemes: Corruption in Detail”
Adrian Karatnycky: Eurasia Center senior fellow; managing partner at Myrmidon Group LLC
Brian Mefford: Eurasia Center senior fellow; managing director at Wooden Horse Strategies LLC
Melinda Haring: Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
3. Election 2020: Driving Forces and Possible Outcomes | October 27, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:30 PM EDT | Brookings Institute | Register Here
As voters begin casting their ballots in the 2020 election, many issues still have the potential to transform the political landscape and determine the outcome of the presidential election, as well as congressional, gubernatorial, and statehouse races across the country. Voters go to the polls with several serious policy issues on their mind including an economy in recession, the COVID-19 pandemic, health care, race relations, social justice, women’s rights, and the future of the judiciary. These issues raise a number of questions that will determine the outcome of the election.
During a campaign season colored by the pandemic, will congressional leadership and the White House strike a deal for another round of economic stimulus before Election Day? And how will delays in a relief package affect House members and senators in tough reelection fights?
With a Supreme Court nomination in process that has the potential to shape the country for years, will Republican voters show up at the polls on election day to reward GOP Senate candidates like Lindsay Graham, Cory Gardner, and Joni Ernst for voting to confirm Amy Coney Barrett? Will Democratic backlash hurt those senators’ chances for reelection?
Long lines, postal delays, concerns about voter intimidation and suppression, and the possibility of contested elections have raised concerns about the integrity of the U.S. elections process. How will political leaders and courts respond when the influx of mail-in ballots might extend election day to several weeks? And will efforts to disrupt voting strike a chord with voters in affecting their drive to vote and their vote choice?
On October 27, one week before election day, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a webinar to discuss the driving forces and possible outcomes of the 2020 election. Expert panelists will offer their analysis on these and other pressing issues and answer questions from viewers.
Speakers:
John Hudak, moderator: Deputy Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies
William A. Galston: Ezra K. Zilkha Chair and Senior Fellow – Governance Studies
Sarah A. Binder: Senior Fellow – Governance Studies
Elaine Kamarck: Founding Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies
Rashawn Ray: David M. Rubenstein Fellow – Governance Studies
Vanessa Williamson: Senior Fellow – Governance StudiesSenior Fellow – Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center
4. Kyrgyzstan’s Unfinished “Revolution”: How the Upheaval from 2020 Is Different | October 28, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
For the third time in 15 years, protesters in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek have seized and set fire to the “White House,” the seat of parliament and presidential staff. The chaotic situation has toppled President Jeenbekov and is still rapidly evolving, with political actors jockeying for power. It’s a scene all too familiar to Kyrgyzstan, which since 2005 has experienced several cycles of protests and calls for advancing democracy followed by backsliding into authoritarianism. But this time around, even with all the familiar players and moves, there are also strong differences that are worth thorough assessment.
Join USIP for a discussion of the ongoing situation in Kyrgyzstan and its implications for peace and stability in Central Asia. The conversation will examine how organized crime, youth mobilization, social media, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic have factored into the crisis. The discussion will also analyze how the United States and the region, including Kyrgyzstan’s Central Asian neighbors and Russia, are assessing and responding to the developments.
Speakers:
Scott Worden, welcoming remarks: Director, Afghanistan and Central Asia Programs, U.S Institute of Peace
Dr. Mariya Omelicheva: Professor of Strategy, National War College
Jonathan Henick: Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau for South & Central Asian Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Dr. Andrew Kuchins: President, American University of Central Asia
Dr. Ivan Safranchuk: Leading Research Fellow, Institute for International Studies, MGIMO
Keneshbek Sainazarov: Central Asia Program Director, Search for Common Ground
Dr. Gavin Helf, moderator: Senior Expert, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
5. Women, Democracy, and Peace: A Conversation with First Lady of Afghanistan Rula Ghani and Former First Lady of the United States Laura Bush | October 28, 2020 | 8:00 AM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Afghanistan is entering a new phase, with ongoing talks offering an opportunity for peace and stability after years of conflict. As the government and the Taliban negotiate peace, questions remain regarding the future of gender equality and minority rights in the country. What will it take to ensure long-term security without compromising on the rights of women and minorities in Afghanistan? How do the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic impact the ability to sustain democratic institutions in the country?
Building upon their longstanding partnership to promote women’s rights in Afghanistan, the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center and the George W. Bush Institute invite you to join us on October 28 at 8:00 A.M. (EDT) / 4:30 P.M. (Kabul) for a virtual conversation with First Lady of Afghanistan Rula Ghani and former First Lady of the United States Laura Bush on these issues and to lend their insight into what will need to be done to ensure an equitable and inclusive peace.
Speakers:
H.E. Rula Ghani: First Lady of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Mrs. Laura Bush: Former First Lady of the United States
6. Negotiating Peace: Lessons from the Western Balkans | October 28, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:30 PM EDT | Wilson Center | Register Here
25 years ago, the Dayton Peace Accords ended conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, violence continued in the Western Balkans, which led to the Kosovo War and the international mediation needed to end it. Even after the conflict stopped, Serbia and Kosovo struggle with their relations. Today, the Western Balkans remains turbulent. Join us as two experienced European negotiators discuss what lessons can be drawn from efforts to negotiate peace in the Balkans, both for the region and elsewhere.
Speakers:
The Right Honourable Catherine Ashton, Baroness of Upholland: Bank of America Chair, Global Europe Program; Former Vice President of the European Commission and former High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy
Carl Bildt: Former Prime Minister of Sweden; Former UN Special Envoy for the Balkans; Co-Chair, Dayton Peace Conference
Jane Harman: Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center
7. The Implications of Brexit for Ireland: A Conversation with Irish Ambassador Daniel Mulhall | October 29, 2020 | 1:30 – 2:30 PM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
Please join us for a conversation with H.E. Daniel Mulhall, Ambassador of Ireland to the United States, about the implications of Brexit for Ireland. This discussion will be moderated by Bill Reinsch, CSIS Scholl Chair and Senior Adviser, and Heather Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic and Director of the Europe Program at CSIS.
With the deadline for reaching a trade agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom fast approaching, there is growing concern that new borders, customs procedures and tariffs may be imposed which will harm both the Irish and Northern Ireland economies. The UK government has moved forward with legislation, the Internal Market Bill, which allows the UK government to breach its legal agreement with the EU on Northern Ireland. The EU has recently initiated legal procedures against the UK for this legislation and prominent members of Congress have stated that the Internal Market Bill or anything else that jeopardizes the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, makes a future US-UK trade agreement impossible. U.S. Special Envoy to Northern Ireland, Mick Mulvaney, recently visited Dublin and Belfast to assess the impact of the Internal Market Bill. Irish Ambassador to the U.S., Ambassador Daniel Mulhall will present the Irish government’s perspective on the situation, on prospects for an acceptable resolution, and the economic and political implications if one does not appear.
Speakers:
H.E. Daniel Mulhall: Ambassador of Ireland to the United States
Heather Conley: Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic and Director of the Europe Program at CSIS
Bill Reinsch: CSIS Scholl Chair and Senior Adviser
8. The Good, Bad, and Ugly: How the World Sees the United States | October 29, 2020 | 9:00 – 9:50 AM EDT | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
Critics make a strong case that the United States has never been less respected or admired abroad than it is today. President Trump’s disruptive policies abroad and his mishandling of the pandemic at home have fundamentally undermined U.S. credibility in the eyes of both allies and adversaries in the short run, but will the damage last? And if Joe Biden wins in November, what will the world expect from U.S. leadership?
Join us as three veteran foreign correspondents, Christiane Amanpour, Steven Erlanger, and David Rennie, sit down with Aaron David Miller to discuss the United States and its role in the world.
Speakers:
Aaron David Miller: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Christiane Amanpour: Chief International Anchor, CNN; Host, “Amanpour & Company”, PBS
Steven Erlanger: Chief Diplomatic Correspondent, Europe, The New York Times.
David Rennie: Beijing bureau chief, The Economist
9. Ten Years On: A Post-Arab Spring Middle East | October 29, 2020 | 2:00 -3:00 PM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The conditions that led to the 2011 Arab Spring protests continue to linger in the Middle East and North Africa. Widespread corruption, political repression, human rights abuses, and economic difficulties proliferate throughout the region, and have been complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Tunisia is often considered an Arab Spring success story, but despite a number of notable improvements since 2011, its fragile democratic transition has had little impact on the day-to-day lives of average Tunisians, and the economic realities that led to the 2011 uprising largely remain unchanged. In countries such as Syria, Yemen, and Libya, civil conflict and foreign intervention have worsened these crises without addressing the root causes of instability.
How have the Arab Spring protests changed the Middle East and affected regional stability over the past decade? What role does the United States play in the various crises throughout MENA and how does it affect American foreign policy goals?
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host its third event in a series to discuss the recently published briefing book, Election 2020: Challenges and Opportunities for US Policy in the Middle East. The briefs in this book offer policy insights from MEI scholars on key issues in the Middle East and serve as a contribution to the broader discussion about the challenges and opportunities for US policy in the region.
Speakers:
Nadwa Al-Dawsari: Non-resident Scholar, MEI
William Lawrence: Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, American University
Charles Lister: Senior fellow and director, Countering Terrorism and Extremism and Syria Programs, MEI
Mirette Mabrouk: Director and senior fellow, Egypt program, MEI
Ibrahim Al-Assil, moderator: Senior fellow, MEI
10. Strengthening Global Safeguards and Security in an Advanced Nuclear Age | October 29, 2020 | 1:00 PM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The Atlantic Council and Third Way are co-hosting a virtual event highlighting the potential global market for advanced nuclear technologies, and the important role safeguards and security must play in ensuring US reactors are ready to compete.
We are delighted to invite you to join our virtual event on the afternoon of Thursday, October 29th, 2020, from 1:00 – 2:30 p.m. EDT. Over the last five years there has been significant technological, financial, and policy progress toward developing and commercializing advanced nuclear reactors in the US. But we are not alone in this pursuit. China and Russia are both developing new reactor designs aggressively to capture the emerging market for advanced nuclear and the global influence that will come with it. It is in the best interest of the world for safety, proliferation, and climate reasons, that the US leads the way.
To maintain the United States’ global leadership, advanced nuclear reactors should not only provide affordable, zero-carbon power; they should provide it in a way that builds upon the nuclear security architecture developed over the last five decades. The US government and advanced nuclear developers could be in the position to enhance global nuclear security and safeguards as a new set of aspiring nuclear countries looks at deploying a new generation of nuclear reactors.
The event will feature keynote remarks by Dr. Brent Park, Deputy Administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the National Nuclear Security Administration. Immediately following his remarks, Third Way will present a first-of-a-kind international advanced nuclear map and global market analysis, and we will host a panel discussion on the critical role US clean energy innovation can play in reducing emissions in the US, addressing energy poverty around the world, and the challenges and opportunities presented by applying safeguards- and security-by-design to the next generation of nuclear energy technologies.
Speakers:
Keynote remarks
Dr. Brent Park: Deputy Administrator, Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation, National Nuclear Security Administration
Panel Discussion
Laura Holgate, Ambassador (ret.): Vice President, Materials Risk Management, Nuclear Threat Initiative
Allison Johnston: Director, Office of International Nuclear Security,National Nuclear Security Administration
Christine King: Director, Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear, Idaho National Laboratory
Kevin Veal: Director, Office of International Nuclear Safeguards, National Nuclear Security Administration
Jackie Kempfer, moderator: Senior Policy Adviser, Climate and Energy Program; Senior Fellow, Global Energy Center
Closing remarks
Dr. Jennifer Gordon: Managing Editor and Senior Fellow, Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council
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The world according to CFR
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) survey of prevention priorities for 2014 is out today. Crowdsourced, it is pretty much the definition of elite conventional wisdom. Pundits of all stripes contribute.
The top tier includes contingencies with high impact and moderate likelihood (intensification of the Syrian civil war, a cyberattack on critical US infrastructure, attacks on the Iranian nuclear program or evidence of nuclear weapons intent, a mass casualty terrorist attack on the US or an ally, or a severe North Korean crisis) as well as those with moderate impact and high likelihood (in a word “instability” in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Iraq or Jordan). None merited the designation high impact and high likelihood, though many of us might have suggested Syria, Iraq and Pakistan for that category. Read more
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Peace Picks: March 4 to March 8
Quite a busy week:
1. Understanding the Behavior of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Monday March 4, 9:00 AM- 11: 00 AM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speakers: Mohsen Milani, Bijan Khajehpour, Geneive Abdo, Ellen Laipson, Sebastian Gräfe
You are invited to a discussion of a new paper by two Iranian scholars that examines the behavior of Iran’s government in a broad range of areas, including nuclear negotiations. The paper is based on discussions during the meeting of the Iran Advisory Group that the Stimson Center and the Heinrich Böll Foundation hosted last November in Berlin, Germany.
Panelists will review critical negotiations that begin Feb. 26 in Kazakhstan between the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France, Germany and Iran designed to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The panelists will shed light on the constellation of political power in Iran, discuss the behavioral patterns of the Iranian government, and suggest steps that can be taken to affect Iran’s behavior.
Website: http://www.boell.org/calendar/VA-viewe…
2. Unwilling to Wait: Why Activists are Taking the Initiative on the Peace Process, Monday 4, 12:00 PM-1:00 PM, Woodrow Wilson Center
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20004
Speakers: Wasim Almasri, Tom Bar-Gal
This event is co-sponsored with OneVoice.
Two youth activists from OneVoice Palestine and OneVoice Israel will speak about their motivations to take personal responsibility to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through grassroots activism. In speaking about the ongoing challenges to resolving the conflict, they will discuss civil society efforts to overcome these obstacles. Given the many transitions taking place in the region, and OneVoices experience in the past ten years, Almasri and Bar-Gal will speak about their vision of where future opportunities for Israeli-Palestinian conflict resolution lie and about the important role of the American foreign policy community in moving the peace process forward.
Website: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/unwi…
3. Can We Call Iraq a Success?, New America Foundation, 1899 L St., NW, Washington, DC 20036, Monday, March 4, 1:00 PM- 2:30 PM
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L St, NW, Suite 400, Washington DC 20036
Speakers: Lt. Col. Joel Rayburn, U.S. Army Military Fellow, New America Foundation; Peter Bergen Director, National Security Studies Program, New America Foundation; Douglas A. Ollivant, Senior National Security Fellow, New America Foundation
As we approach the 10-year anniversary of the U.S. invasion of Iraq on March 20, 2003, news of that country has largely faded from American headlines. But a myriad of questions remain to be answered about the eight-year American involvement in the Iraq War. Specifically, what were the major decision points for the United States, and what directions did the conflict take after those decisions were made? What was gained from the deaths of many of tens of thousands of Iraqis and thousands of Americans, and hundreds of billions of dollars the war also consumed? And where is Iraq now in terms of security, economic strength, political stability, and alignment with U.S. regional interests?
Please join the New America Foundation’s National Security Studies Program for a debate over these questions and more between Douglas A. Ollivant, who was Director for Iraq at the National Security Council during both the Bush and Obama administrations, and Lt. Col. Joel Rayburn, who served on the staff of General David Petraeus in Baghdad in 2007 and 2008, where he focused on political-military issues.
Website: http://www.newamerica.net/events/2013/…
4. Constitutionalism and Human Rights in Tunisia: The Islamist-Led Democratic Transition Post-Arab Spring, Johns Hopkins SAIS, Tuesday March 5, 9:00 AM- 4:00 PM
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS- NItze Building, 1740 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington DC, 20036, Kenney Auditorium
Speakers: Nejib Ayachi, Mohamed Mattar, Issam Saliba, William Zartman, Alexis Arieff, Alaya Allani and more
Experts and policymakers will discuss post-revolution political and constitutional transitions, the future of minority rights and freedom of expression in Tunisia, and the relationship between Islamists in power and democratic transition in the context of the Arab Spring. For a complete conference agenda, visitbit.ly/YzShnG.
Website: http://sais-jhu.edu/events/2013-03-05-…
5. Understanding Conflict and Ethnic Violence in Kyrgyzstan, Elliot School of International Affairs, Tuesday March 5, 12:00 PM- 2:00 PM
Venue: Voesar Conference Room, Elliot School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052
Speaker: Neil Melvin
Neil Melvin, Director, Program Armed Conflict and Conflict Management, SIPRI
Over the last two decades, Kyrgyzstan has experienced two major outbreaks of violence involving the main ethnic communities in the country: the Kyrgyz and the Uzbeks. These violent incidents have generally been viewed as ethnic conflicts and much of the response to the violence from the government, local communities, and the international community has been framed within this understanding. At the same time, Kyrgyzstan has also experienced other, less significant violent events and political crises that have often been linked temporally to the ethnic conflicts. This suggests that a full understanding of the nature of armed conflict in Kyrgyzstan and the involvement of ethnic communities in violence at a minimum requires a broader examination of the context of the violence.
RSVP: tinyurl.com/March5-Melvin
Sponsored by the Central Asia Program
Website: http://www.elliottschool.org/events/ca…
6. Palestinian Refugees in a Changing Middle East, Foundation for Middle East Peace, Tuesday March 5, 12:00 PM- 1:00 PM
Venue: Middle East Institute, 1761 N Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speaker: Filippo Grandi
While profound changes sweep across many parts of the Middle East today, the plight and status of the Palestine refugees—a present day reminder of one of the very first Middle East crises in 1948—remain left behind, unresolved and in the shadows of these uncertain times. The dynamism of change for others in the region contrasts with the growing sense of stagnation, marginalization and new dangers faced by Palestine refugees. Since its creation in 1949, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) has been at the forefront providing essential humanitarian and human development services to the now approximately 5 million registered Palestine refugees in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, the West Bank and Gaza. The challenges to the Agency and its beneficiaries are many—from continuing to operate in some of the most dangerous parts of Syria, to addressing the aftermath of the recent war in Gaza, to providing care and protection to now 2nd and 3rd time Palestine refugees from Syria seeking safety and shelter in Lebanon and Jordan. UNRWA Commissioner-General Grandi will offer an update on the rising tensions in the region, the international community’s response and new dangers that lie ahead from the perspective of the Palestine refugee.
Filippo Grandi was appointed Commissioner-General of UNRWA on January 20, 2010 having previously served as Deputy Commissioner-General since October 2005. Prior to joining UNRWA, he distinguished himself in a variety of headquarters and field functions around the globe for the United Nations encompassing refugee assistance, protection, emergency management, donor relations, and humanitarian and political affairs.
Website: http://www.eventbrite.com/event/564758…
7. The Rise & Fall of Iran in Arab and Muslim Eyes- A New Poll, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Tuesday March 5, 12:30 PM- 2:00 PM
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave, NW, Washington DC, 20004
Speakers: Jane Harman
Zogby Research Services will release their latest poll of views on Iran and its policies from 20 Arab and Muslim nations including the Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula States, the Maghreb, Egypt and Sudan and non-Arab Muslim neighbors of Turkey, Pakistan and Azerbaijan.
Website: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-…
8. Obama and the Middle East Peace Process: Déjà Vû?, New America Foundation, Washington DC 20036 Wednesday March 6, 9:15 AM-10:45 AM.
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L St., N.W., Suite 400, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers: Daniel Levy, Husam Zomlot, Hisham Melham, Matt Duss
On the heels of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s reelection and in anticipation of President Obama’s forthcoming trip to Israel, the West Bank, and Jordanthe New America Foundation’s Middle East Task Force will host a discussion on expectations for the visit and for the president’s second term.
We’ll examine the likely motivations for and possible outcomes of the President’s upcoming trip. Is the visit an attempt to reinvigorate his administration’s relationship with Netanyahu, restart peace talks, or an equal effort to achieve both objectives? Is the newly reelected Obama serious about an Israeli-Palestinian settlement? Does the new Israeli government (and a weakened Netanyahu) present a fresh opportunity for dialogue on a settlement? Or, will other regional conflicts take precedence on the agenda.
Join us for an in-depth analysis of these issues and more on March 6.
On Twitter? Follow @MideastChannel to join the conversation online.?
Website: http://www.newamerica.net/events/2013/…
9. The Rise of Islamism: Its Impact on Religious Minorities, Hudson Institute, Washington DC 20005, Wednesday March 6, 12:00 PM-1:30 PM.
Venue: Hudson Institute, 1015 15th Street, NW, 6th Floor
Speakers: Nina Shea, Farahnaz Ispahani, Jamsheed K. Choksy, Anthony Vance, Stephen Schwartz
Hudson Institute’s Center for Religious Freedom invites you to attend
The Rise of Islamism: Its Impact on Religious Minorities
Wednesday, March 612:00 1:30 PM
Lunch will be served.
This event will be streamed live here: www.hudson.org/WatchLive.
Submit questions via Twitter: @HudsonInstitute
With the rise of Islamism in the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa, religious minorities have come increasingly under siege. Already this year, nearly two hundred Hazara Shiite Muslims in Baluchistan, Pakistan have been killed in bombings launched by the Sunni extremist group Lashkar-e-Jangvi. In Egypt, the nation’s new constitution denies Baha’is the right to houses of worship, while Iran’s denies Baha’is any rights at all. In Mali, Islamists have destroyed historic Sufi shrines, and in Iraq, a campaign of terrorist violence has driven almost the entire Mandean community from its ancient homeland. Across a broad geographic area and in once culturally diverse societies, Christians, Jews, Baha’is, Ahmadi Muslims, Zoroastrians, Sufis, Shiites, Mandeans, Yizidis, Sikhs, Hindus, and other religious minorities face a range of threats from ascendant Islamists.
Please join moderator Nina Shea, Hudson Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Religious Freedom, and our expert panel to discuss Islamism’s impact on religious minorities and recommendations to strengthen the cause of religious freedom and cultural pluralism.
Panelists will include former Pakistani Parliamentarian (2008-12) Farahnaz Ispahani; Professor of Iranian, Central Eurasian, and Islamic Studies at Indiana University Jamsheed K. Choksy; Director of the Office of Public Affairs for the Baha’is of the United States Anthony Vance; and Executive Director of the Center for Islamic Pluralism and author Stephen Schwartz.
Website: http://hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction…
10. What should Obama do on North Korea?, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Thursday March 7, 9:00 AM
Venue: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1800 K Street, NW, Washington
Speakers: Victor D. Cha, Walter L. Sharp
A Korea Chair Platform event with
Dr. Victor D. Cha
Senior Advisor and Korea Chair, CSIS
General (Ret) Walter L. Sharp
Former Commander of U.S. Combined Forces Command & USFK and
Amb. Joseph R. DeTrani Special Envoy for Six Party Talks with North Korea
Please join us for a Korea Chair Platform event with Victor Cha, Walter L. Sharp, and Joseph R. DeTrani. In the wake of the December 2012 missile launch and the February 2013 nuclear test, our distinguished panelists will share their views on the road ahead and what President Obama should do on North Korea. We hope you can join us!
To RSVP for this event, please email KoreaChair@csis.org.
The Korea Chair Platform is made possible by the generous support of Samsung Electronics America.
Website: http://csis.org/event/what-should-obam…
11. Reporting on Conflict in Burma: Challenges and Opportunities, US Institute of Peace, Thursday March 7, 10:00 AM- 11:30 AM
Venue: US Institute of Peace 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
Speakers: Stephen Gray, Thiha Saw, Kyaw Zen Thar, Theo Dolan, John Knaus
This event will be webcast live beginning at 10:00am ET on March 7, 2013 at www.usip.org/webcast. Join the conversation on Twitter with #BurmaMedia.
The opening of media freedoms in Burma by the government of Thein Sein has been gradual, but encouraging. The phasing out of formal censorship and the reinstitution of private daily newspapers are positive steps toward informing a public which is increasingly seeking out news and information. However, reliable coverage of ongoing conflicts in Burma, such as in Kachin and Arakan states, has been difficult to obtain. With information on these conflicts still largely controlled by the government, local journalists struggle to present a holistic picture of the violence.
This event will explore the steps that can be taken by the Burmese media, government and other key stakeholders to advance existing media freedoms in order to report more effectively on conflict. Experts will present an overview of the present conflicts in ethnic states and prospects for peace an analysis of media sector reforms, including current challenges and opportunities; and perspectives on conflict reporting from a journalist from Arakan state.
Website: http://www.usip.org/events/reporting-c…
12. Yemen’s Political Transition and Public Attitudes Toward the National Dialogue, National Democratic Institute, Thursday March 7 12:00 PM- 1:30 PM
Venue: National Democratic Institute455 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, 8th Floor Washington, DC
Speakers: Barbara Bodine, Les Campbell, John Moreira, Brian Katulis
The agreement brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) for political transition in Yemen calls for a National Dialogue Conference to help the country’s leaders develop consensus for draft constitutional reforms and prepare for elections in 2014.During the past year, the transition has faced considerable challenges from wrangling among competing political factions to violent activity by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, tribal disputes, and a southern secessionist movement. Later this month, the country’s leaders will finally join together for the start of the National Dialogue Conference in an effort to end gridlock on the country’s stalled political reform process and address worsening economic conditions.
As the country heads into this important dialogue, how does the Yemeni public view the future of the nation and the priorities they want their leaders to address? What are the key points of consensus and disagreement we can expect during the dialogue? How can the United States government support Yemen’s political transition as it seeks to advance other national security interests?
Please join the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the Center for American Progress for a joint panel discussion featuring Barbara Bodine, Lecturer and Director of Scholars in the Nation’s Service at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School for Public and International Affairs and former U.S. Ambassador to Yemen; Les Campbell, NDI Senior Associate and Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa who has recently returned from pre-Dialogue discussions in Yemen; and John Moreira, lead consultant for Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research who oversaw recent polling in Yemen.
In conjunction with this event, the National Democratic Institute will release the results of a new public opinion poll conducted in Yemen.
Website: http://www.ndi.org/node/20111
13. Peacekeeping and Protection of Civilians in South Sudan: Rhetoric and Reality, US Institute of Peace, Friday, March 8, 10:00 AM- 11:30 AM
Venue: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
Speakers: Hilde Johnson, Jon Temin
This event will be webcast live beginning at 10:00am ET at www.usip.org/webcast.
The United Nations Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS) maintains civilian protection as one of its core responsibilities. However, ethnic tensions and a weak national security architecture across South Sudan, coupled with UNMISS’s own limited resources, have made this objective of protecting civilians from physical violence difficult to achieve. There have been sporadic, violent tribal clashes in several South Sudanese states, most notably inter-communal violence in Jonglei state that has claimed hundreds, if not thousands, of lives.
USIP is pleased to host Ms. Hilde Johnson, special representative of the U.N. secretary-general and head of UNMISS, to discuss some of the challenges that UNMISS has faced and lessons learned in striving to protect civilians.
Website: http://www.usip.org/events/peacekeepin…
14.The Arab Awakening: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Friday March 8, 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave, NW, Washington DC, 20004
Speakers: Rami Khouri, Robin Wright
Rami Khouri, Former Public Policy Scholar, Woodrow Wilson Center; Director, Islam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, American University of Beirut, Lebanon; Editor-at-large, The Daily Star
Robin Wright, Journalist and Author/Editor of eight books, most recently editor of ‘The Islamists Are Coming: Who They Really Are’
Website: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-…
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