Tag: Latin America
Friday stock taking
It’s Friday, so let’s take a look at how effectively the Trump Administration has dealt with world and domestic events this week while it obsesses over impeachment:
- The North Koreans continue to launch increasingly capable ballistic missiles.
- While suffering from reimposed sanctions, Iran is defying the US and increasing uranium enrichment beyond the limits specified the nuclear deal the US withdrew from.
- The Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil production facilities has elicited no visible response from the US or Saudi Arabia, which is joining the United Arab Emirates in playing footsie with Iran.
- While failing to remove from Syria all the troops Trump said would be withdrawn, the US has allowed Turkey to take over a buffer zone along its border with Syria, leading to large-scale displacement of people there. Russia has also gained a foothold in northeastern Syria, as has the Assad regime.
- The trade war with China drags on, with the US trade deficit ballooning and Asian partners and allies doubting US commitments in the region.
- Venezuelan autocrat Maduro has survived despite American pressure, as has the Communist regime in Cuba and Evo Morales’ rule in Bolivia.
- In Europe, French President Macron is describing NATO as “brain dead” because of Trump’s lack of commitment to it and Trump’s pal UK Prime Minister Johnson is being forced into an election to try to confirm his Brexit plan, which Trump has supported.
- In the Balkans, the Administration has confused everyone with the appointment of two special envoys whose relationship to each other and to US policy is opaque.
- That’s all without even mentioning Ukraine, where State Department officials have confirmed that President Trump tried to extort an investigation of his political rivals from newly elected President Zelensky in exchange for Congressionally approved military aid.
The home front is even worse:
- A New York State Court has forced Trump into a $2 million settlement in which he has admitted improper and fraudulent use of his family foundation.
- Republicans lost the governorship in Kentucky and control of both houses of the Virginia assembly in off-year elections earlier this week. Congressional Republicans are nervous.
- President Trump’s personal lawyer affirmed that everything he did in Ukraine was to serve his client’s personal interests, a statement that confirms public assets were used for private purposes.
- The Attorney General, a stalwart defender of his boss, has declined to make a public statement supporting Trump’s claim that he did nothing wrong in his infamous phone call with President Zelensky.
- The House Democrats are piling up subpoenas that the White House is ignoring, heightening the likelihood that obstruction of Congressional oversight will be added to the impeachment charges and limiting the news to the sharp critiques of non-White House officials.
- The economy is slowing, especially in some “swing” districts vital to Trump’s hopes for a win in the electoral college in 2020, when he is sure to lose the popular vote once again, likely by a wider margin than in 2016.
I suppose it could get worse, and likely will. But it has been a long time since we’ve seen an American Administration in worse shape than this.
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Stevenson’s army October 31
- It’s not just Latin America. Protests are also widespread now in the Arab world.
- Lawfare summarizes recent hearings on Syria and Turkey.
- Slate details DOD/OMB fight over Ukraine money, which Congress rescued with a surprise bill.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | October 7 – 11
A Vision for the Future of Missile Defense | October 7, 2019 | 9:30 am – 12:00 pm | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The CSIS Missile Defense Project is pleased to welcome Vice Admiral Jon Hill, Director of the Missile Defense Agency, to speak on his vision and intent for the Agency. An industry panel will follow his remarks.
Event Schedule
9:30-10:30 Conversation between VADM Jon Hill and Dr. Tom Karako, Director, Missile Defense Project.
10:30-10:40 Coffee break
10:40-12:00 Panel discussion featuring Sarah
Reeves, Vice President of Missile Defense Programs, Lockheed Martin
Space, John Schumacher, Vice President, Washington Operations,
Aerojet Rocketdyne, Paul Smith, Vice President and Program
Director of GMD, Boeing, Dr. Mitch Stevison, Vice President,
Raytheon Missile Systems, and Brig. Gen. Kenn Todorov (USAF, ret.), Vice
President of Missile Defense Solutions, Northrop Grumman Corporation.
More than a Wallet: The Role of the Private Sector in Development | October 7, 2019 | 10:00 am – 11:30 am | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The international community predominately sees the private sector as the answer to the gap in financing for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), but what other roles can the private sector play in development? Large multinational corporations have been operating in some of the most fragile contexts for years and could offer technical assistance to NGOs and aid agencies. The private sector also supplies 9 out of 10 jobs in developing countries and can help encourage foreign direct investment. Development agencies could also learn from the private sector’s longstanding and resilient value chains throughout emerging markets. This event will explore these topics and feature representatives from the U.S. government, multinational corporations, SMEs, and development practitioners.
FEATURING
CEO, CollaborateUp
Senior Vice President, Middle East and North Africa, Chemonics International
Senior Advisor, mClinica
Private Sector Engagement Coordinator, USAID
New Strategic Visions and Power Competition in the Middle East |October 8, 2019 | 9:00 am | Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here
In collaboration with the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) and the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, the conference will discuss new strategic visions and power competition in the Middle East. The event is organized within the framework of the fifth edition of MED – Rome Mediterranean Dialogues, which will take place later this year in Rome.
The growing power of China and the renewed assertiveness of Russia seem to be a prelude to a new phase of depreciation of Western impact on the rest of the world, if not the opening of a great competition for the redistribution of power and international status. In the context of this global reassessment, the configuration of regional orders has come into question, illustrated by the current collapse of the Middle Eastern order. The idea of a “Russian resurgence’” in the Middle East set against an American withdrawal has captured the attention of policymakers and scholars alike and warrants further examination of renewed power competition in the region.
We hope you will join us for this important event, which will also mark the release of a new collected volume, “The MENA Region: A Great Power Competition,” edited by Karim Mezran and Arturo Varvelli.
9:00 a.m. Introductory remarks
Amb. Giampiero Massolo
President
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
H.E. Armando Varicchio
Ambassador
Embassy of Italy to the United States
9:30 a.m. Update on current US strategy toward the region
Mr. David Schenker
Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs
US Department of State
10:15 a.m. Transatlantic foreign policy in the MENA region
Amb. Barbara Leaf
Senior Fellow
The Washington Institute
Dr. Haizam Amirah-Fernández
Senior Analyst
Elcano Royal Institute
Mr. William Wechsler
Director, Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East Programs
Atlantic Council
11:40 a.m. New policies for old actors: Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey
Dr. Jon Alterman
Director, Middle East Program
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Dr. Mark N. Katz
Nonresident Senior Fellow
Atlantic Council
Dr. Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi
Research Fellow
Royal United Services Institute
Dr. Gönül Tol
Director, Center for Turkish Studies
Middle East Institute
1:00 p.m. Lunch Served
1:20 – 2:30 p.m. Keynote Address: A new strategic vision for the United States
Gen. Joseph Votel
Former Commander
US Central Command (CENTCOM)
Moderators
Dr. Karim Mezran
Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East
Atlantic Council
Dr. Arturo Varvelli
Senior Research Fellow and Co-Head, Middle East and North Africa Center
ISPI
The Global Challenge of Political Polarization | October 8, 2019 | 12:15 pm – 1:45 pm | 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Political polarization is tearing at the seams of democracies around the world, from Bangladesh, Brazil, and India, to Poland, Turkey, and the United States. Why is polarization coming to a boil in so many different places at once? Is polarization similar everywhere or marked by substantial differences? How can severely divided democracies restore at least some national political consensus? Are there relevant lessons for the United States from polarized democracies elsewhere? Thomas Carothers will address these questions, drawing on the new book he has co-edited with Andrew O’Donohue, Democracies Divided: The Global Challenge of Political Polarization. Anne Applebaum, Naomi Hossain, and Sarah Yerkes will provide in-depth perspectives on key country cases.
THOMAS CAROTHERS
Thomas Carothers is senior vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In that capacity he oversees all of the research programs at Carnegie. He also directs the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program and carries out research and writing on democracy-related issues.
ANNE APPLEBAUM
Anne Applebaum is a columnist for the Washington Post and a Pulitzer-prize winning historian. She is also a senior fellow at the Stavros Niarchos Foundation Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University.
NAOMI HOSSAIN
Naomi Hossain is a political sociologist at the Institute of Development Studies, Sussex, currently based at the Accountability Research Center at American University. She is the author of The Aid Lab: Understanding Bangladesh’s Unexpected Success.
SARAH YERKES
Sarah Yerkes is a fellow in Carnegie’s Middle East Program, where her research focuses on Tunisia’s political, economic, and security developments as well as state-society relations in the Middle East and North Africa.
CARLOS LOZADA
Carlos Lozada is the nonfiction book
critic of the Washington Post and a Carnegie Endowment visiting
scholar. He is also an adjunct professor of political journalism with the
University of Notre Dame’s Washington program.
Trade, Development, and Security: A Discussion on the Potential of a US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement | October 9, 2019 | 9:00 am – 10:30 am | Middle East Institute, 1763 N St. NW Washington, District of Columbia 20036 | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host an event addressing the possibility of a US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement within the wider context of Egyptian development, economy, and security. A US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement has been under discussion, on and off, for the better part of two decades. A new report launched by MEI, “Trade, Reform and Revitalization: Towards a Free Trade Agreement,” finds that a free trade agreement would be mutually beneficial, but its success will depend on the adoption of the kind of reforms integral to the growth of Egypt’s economy. Without vibrant growth, powered by an active private sector, Egypt’s economy may falter, affecting its political and economic stability and security.
To address this topic, CEO of the AmCham Egypt Inc in
Egypt Hisham Fahmy will be accompanied by Deborah Lehr,
CEO of Basilinna, and Mirette F. Mabrouk, the director of MEI’s
Egypt Studies program. Ambassador Gerald Feierstein, MEI’s senior
Vice President, will moderate the discussion.
Belt and Road in Latin America: Where does the future lie? | October 9, 2019 | 9:00 am – 10:30 am| 1030 15th St NW 12th Floor, Washington DC, 20005 | Register Here
Over the past six years, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has expanded across the globe, drawing varied reactions ranging from full-on support to deep-running skepticism. Latin America and the Caribbean, long considered peripheral to the BRI, is increasingly engaging with the initiative – 19 countries have already signed on. As BRI continues to evolve, what are some new areas and trends to watch? What are the implications of BRI for regional governments and the business community? In what ways could BRI affect the United States and its interests?
Join the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center on Wednesday, October 9, 2019, from 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. (EDT) for a high-level conversation on the BRI in Latin America and its implications for the region.
*Speakers to be Announced*
By, With, and Through: A Closer Look at CENTCOM’s Approach in the Middle East | October 10, 2019 | 12:30 pm – 2:00 pm | Middle East Institute, 1763 N Street NW, Washington, District of Columbia 20036 | Register Here
The effective prosecution of America’s new global priority of competing with China and Russia requires the reallocation of U.S. military resources from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific region and elsewhere. This in turn places a higher premium on U.S. security cooperation with partners in the Middle East.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)’s “By, With, and Through” approach can help further the goals of security cooperation and specifically develop closer ties with partner forces in the region. But is it working? And if it isn’t, what are the main challenges both at home and abroad, and what will it take to generate better results?
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to convene a
panel of experts to reflect on this subject. Bilal Y. Saab, MEI’s Senior
Fellow and Director of the Defense and Security Program, will discuss some of
the key findings of an upcoming publication in the 2019 Fall issue of The
Washington Quarterly entitled, “Broken Partnerships: Can Washington
Get Security Cooperation Right?.” He will be joined by General Joseph
Votel, former CENTCOM Commander and currently a nonresident distinguished
senior fellow at MEI; Dana Stroul, senior fellow in The Washington
Institute’s Beth and David Geduld Program on Arab Politics; and Kenneth
Pollack, author of Armies of Sand: The Past, Present, and Future of Arab
Military Effectiveness and a resident scholar at the American Enterprise
Institute. The conversation will be moderated by Eric Schmitt of
the New York Times.
Elections, Peace Talks, and U.S. Policy: What’s Next for Afghanistan? | October 10, 2019 |1:00 pm — 2:30 pm | One Woodrow Wilson Plaza 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20004 6th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center | Register Here
Eighteen years after U.S. forces entered Afghanistan, the country is not only still at war—it is also in a state of flux. Its political future is uncertain, with the final results of a September 28 presidential election not expected until November. The fate of a fledgling peace and reconciliation process has been unclear since U.S. President Donald Trump called off talks with the Taliban. The direction of U.S. policy, and particularly the future American military presence, is also a major question. This event will take stock of Afghanistan’s various challenges amid so much uncertainty; discuss what we can expect to see in the coming weeks and months; and consider the best—and worst—ways forward for Kabul and Washington.
Speakers
Independent Consultant
Director, Center for Stability and Development, CNA Corporation
Journalist and TV Host, Voice of America
Senior Program Officer for Afghanistan, U.S. Institute of Peace
Social Activist and Co-Founder, Her Afghanistan
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Stevenson’s army, October 2
Not just here. Look at Peru, where the president dismissed the congress and then was impeached. Not sure who is in charge.
Daily Beast says Pompeo ousted Volker in self-defense. Reports say Volker is still slated to give testimony tomorrow.
Time has good history of US whistleblower laws: first one was in 1778!
NYT explains different NSC computer systems.
NYT details how officials work to respond to presidential whims — at one point last spring even doing a cost estimate of Trump’s demand for a border moat filled with snakes and alligators.
DOD has created a special China office; good pros and cons about such a move.
Crisis group head warns of war in the Middle East.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 3
My SAIS colleague, Charlie Stevenson, distributes an almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. This is a second tasting. If you want to get it directly, follow the instructions below:
Interagency conflicts are a normal part of the policy process. Officials and agencies have different perspectives on problems and often different views on solutions. Yesterday I noted WSJ report of the conflict over trade policy. Today, NYT has THREE stories about other policy fights.
– The US military sees ISIS as a bigger threat in Afghanistan than does the intelligence community, assessing double the number of ISIS fighters as does the community.
-SecState Pompeo opposed the recent agreement with Guatemala, but the DHS acting secretary won the fight.
– Pompeo has fired the head of policy planning, apparently for management problems, but who knows.
– A trade prof argues that Lighthizer’s trade strategy has been proved a failure.
– BTW, the trade war with China has led to a drop to only 3rd US trade partner.
– Cong. Ratcliffe’s removal as DNI designee led the president to justify his poor vetting policy in an unusual way:
“I give out a name to the press and they vet for me. We save a lot of money that way,” Trump said.The president also seems to take China’s side on Hong Kong, calling the protests “riots” that China should deal with.
To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Counterproductive
The loss of a large part of Notre Dame de Paris is profoundly sad. There is little I can say to amplify what so many others have already written. But sadder still is a President of the United States who can’t keep his mouth shut and always seems to choose the most destructive course of action. In this case, he suggested:
So horrible to watch the massive fire at Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. Perhaps flying water tankers could be used to put it out. Must act quickly!
What neither he nor I knew was that dumping water on an ancient stone building can weaken its mortar and cause even more damage than the fire, perhaps even collapse of the whole structure.
This is Trump’s modus operandi. He is unable to acknowledge that he may not know better than others, which requires that he surround himself with yes-people. They encourage his self-aggrandizement, preventing any reevaluation or self-correction. So Trump cancels US assistance to Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras, hoping that will somehow block their citizens from leaving. No one can say him nay. But that move is pretty much guaranteed to make conditions in those three countries worse and cause more asylum-seekers to arrive in the US, not fewer.
Ditto policy on Iran. Trump’s tight squeeze there without support from Europe, China, or Russia is strengthening Iran’s hardliners and making even extension of the Iran nuclear deal, which begins to “sunset” in just a few years, more difficult. National Security Adviser Bolton has even begun to lay the foundation for a military attack on Iran, by claiming it could be done under the existing Congressional Authorization to Use Military Force. One more Middle East war: precisely what the world needs right now. Iraq and Afghanistan haven’t yet cost enough.
Double ditto on North Korea, where the President has lurched from threatening (nuclear) war to befriending one of the world’s worst tyrants and meeting with his good friend (shall I say lover?) twice to no good effect. Now the Administration is contemplating a third meeting. What’s that saying, attributed to Einstein, about doing the same thing and expecting a different result?
Triple ditto on the Israel/Palestine conflict, where Trump is trying to squeeze the Palestinians by denying them humanitarian and law enforcement assistance. There aren’t enough desperate young Palestinians ready to take up the cudgels?
In none of these situations is it difficult to imagine the Trump Administration’s decisions making things go from bad to worse. And there are others:
- the decision in Syria to withdraw, then not to withdraw, but still to withdraw;
- the President’s comment that US troops should stay in Iraq to keep an eye on Iran, which makes it more difficult for Iraqi politicians to give the necessary approval;
- telling the world the US isn’t interested in Libya, which opened the door to a military push on Tripoli likely to re-ignite the civil war there, or possibly lead to re-imposition of a military dictatorship;
- threatening military action in Venezuela, where everyone understands there is no serious military option, thus reducing the US to a paper tiger;
- continuing to cozy up to President Putin despite Russian behavior in Ukraine and the Sea of Azov, not to mention interference in US politics on a daily basis;
- the threat to close the Mexican border, which would devastate the US and Mexican economies.
It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the President is incorrigible, mainly because he doesn’t abide correction. His response to criticism is to double down on failed policy and hope that will work, or turn 180 degrees and hope that will. It doesn’t. The more this shambolic Administration continues, the more the rest of the world, friends and enemies, will adjust by hedging that reduces American influence. Trump is destined to be remembered as not just ineffective but also counterproductive.
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