Tag: Latin America
The flim flam election
Here are just a few of the nonsense claims I am hearing a few days before the American midterm elections, which will decide the January majorities in the House and Senate as well as control of state legislatures and governors:
- The migrant caravan in southern Mexico is a threat to the national security of the United States. It is not. The few thousand mostly women and children walking north are still at least a month away from the Texas border. Judging from past “caravans” of this sort, fewer than half will arrive there and present themselves as asylum-seekers, a claim that will be adjudicated on a case-by-case basis in accordance with US law. There is no evidence at all that there are “unknown Middle Easterners” and gang members in the group, as President Trump has claimed.
- George Soros and other Democrats financed the migrant caravan. There is also no evidence whatsoever for this claim. In Latin America, Soros’ Open Society Foundation addresses mainly governance and human rights, focused on Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. I’d guess the program is far more likely to contribute to people staying in their home countries than leaving them, by addressing local grievances and improving government performance.
- The US military deployment will protect us. No, because the US military is not allowed to do so inside the US. Nor will it fire, as President Trump has suggested, on stone throwers. The 5000 or so troops he is ordering to the border (supposedly to be increased later) will do support tasks for Customs and Border Protection, which has handled similar caravans in the past without much strain. This is an unnecessary and costly deployment ordered purely for political reasons: to show the President is doing something about the threat he has hyped.
- President Trump has negotiated a great nuclear agreement with North Korea. There is no nuclear agreement with Pyongyang, only a one-page statement that is not as strong as previous North Korean commitments to denuclearization. Kim Jong-un has stiffed Secretary Pompeo, who has been trying to convert that very general commitment into a real agreement. The lovefest has produced no offspring. The North Koreans have not even produced a rudimentary inventory of their nuclear program, never mind signed up to the kind of detailed constraints that Obama imposed on Iran in the nuclear deal from which Trump has withdrawn.
- The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is much better than the lousy North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and is already having an impact. The two are basically the same, with some updates that include both things the US wanted and things Mexico and Canada wanted. USMCA doesn’t go into effect until 2020. NAFTA governs trade until then.
- Trump has been great for the economy. The economy is good, largely due to the almost eight years of growth under President Obama. The employment gains and fall in unemployment since January 2017 are nothing more than continuation of the what was already happening:
But there are storm clouds on the horizon: short-term interest rates and inflation are headed up, the stock market is teetering, and the Trump tariff war is endangering US exports and increasing the price of US imports.
7. The Republicans will provide better health care, with insurance for people with pre-existing conditions. This proposition doesn’t pass the laugh test. The Administration is determined to annihilate the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). Without Obamacare, which ensures that healthy people have incentives to sign up for health insurance, there is no way to cover pre-existing conditions except by charging market rates that will eliminate coverage for most people with them. No one should be fooled.
This is the flim flam election: a test of whether Americans can see through the lies and realize that they have been conned. I’m not predicting the outcome, but I will canvas over the weekend in Virginia’s 8th Congressional District and hope everyone I know will be trying to get the vote out.
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[White] nationalist
If this image of an American president declaring himself a nationalist doesn’t send chills up your spine, maybe there is something wrong with your nervous system. Here are my reactions:
- He left out one word. Standing in front of this all-white audience, he didn’t have to say “white” nationalist. He knows and they know what he meant. His supporters will deny it, but this is a president who seeks to turn out racists, his strongest constituency, and to suppress votes by minorities. We’ll have to wait until November 6 to see how successful he is, or whether his blatant racism and misogyny will ensure that minorities and women come to the polls in record numbers. Indications so far are that they will.
- Wharton School should be ashamed. Any student who has taken Econ 101 knows that no country can prosper if it closes itself off to trade. Yes, globalists like me want the world the prosper, because then Americans do too. The President’s tariffs and other protectionist moves generate retaliation and are against American interests. They will sooner or later end the long Obama expansion. That’s what the stock market is signaling these days with its fall back towards the level when Trump took office. Remember those tweets about the soaring Dow Jones? Gone with the wind.
- The President’s focus on “the caravan” of mostly Hondurans heading to the US through Mexico is the perfect vehicle to focus both racism and protectionism while distracting attention from the Administration’s own failure to strengthen border protection. The effort to scare people away by mistreating them is not working. Apprehensions of illegal immigrants in the US are up, after a dip early in this Administration:
But it is also important to note that there is no reason to believe the participants in the caravan intend to immigrate illegally. Most won’t even make it to the US border, if past experience is a valid indicator. Of those who do, many will declare themselves asylum-seekers, who are not illegal immigrants. The standards for proving a “well-founded fear of persecution” are exacting. Few will get asylum and most will instead be deported.
The President has already admitted he has no evidence for his claim that “unknown Middle Easterners” are in the caravan. He just thinks it might be possible because that has happened before (in miniscule numbers). His promise to cut off aid to Honduras and others countries from which people migrate is simply counter-productive: the aid is spent on economic development efforts that make migration less likely.
President Trump has gone out of his way to claim the “white nationalist” label. Americans need to keep that in mind as the November 6 election approaches, along with the sputtering stock market, the slowing pace of job growth compared to the Obama years, the tax cut for the super rich, the damage tariffs are doing to US exports, and the exaggerated fear of immigrants. Not to mention the Republican effort to end health insurance for people with pre-existing conditions. It is time to vote not only conscience, but self interest.
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Peace Picks: October 22 – 28
1. Completing Europe: Will Macedonia seize its moment? | Monday, October 22, 2018 | 4:00 pm – 5:15 pm | Atlantic Council | 1030 15th St. NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 2005 | Register Here
On September 30, Macedonians voted in a referendum that would rename the country North Macedonia and remove the key obstacle to NATO and European Union (EU) membership. A boycott effort, outside influences, and ambivalent results – more than 90 percent voting yes, but below 40 percent turnout – raise questions about what comes next.
Will the government in Skopje muster the constitutional majority required to adopt the changes called for in the Prespa Agreement it negotiated with Greece? If not, will the country face snap parliamentary elections? How does this influence the calculus in Greece ahead of its own difficult parliamentary vote on the agreement? What impact does this have on the region and prospects for future NATO and EU enlargement. What roles are the United States, Europe and Russia playing in all this?
Speakers
The Rt. Hon. Lord Robertson of Port Ellen
Former Secretary General of NATO
Lilica Kitanovska
Chief, VOA Macedonian Service
Damon Wilson
Executive Vice President, Programs and Strategy, Atlantic Council
2. Turmoil in Nicaragua: Is there an end in sight? | Tuesday, October 23, 2018 | 9:00 am – 11:00 am | Wilson Center | 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 6th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Since April 2018, Nicaragua has been rocked by street protests against the government of President Daniel Ortega. Amidst harsh measures that criminalize social protest, the government arrested over two dozen opposition activists and leaders on Sunday, October 14th, subsequently releasing them after an international outcry.
According to the OAS Inter-American Human Rights Commission, over 300 people have been killed, the majority of them anti-government demonstrators. A broad civic alliance consisting of the private sector, student, labor, and human rights groups, and intellectuals has demanded an end to the repression, the resignation of Ortega, and the holding of early elections. Attempts by the Catholic Church to mediate a dialogue have thus far failed.
Speakers
Cynthia J. Arnson
Director, Latin American Program, Woodrow Wilson Center
Douglas Castro
Professor & Researcher, Universidad Centroamericana
Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee
Lesther Alemán
Student of Communications, Universidad Centroamericana
Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee
Jeancarlo López
Student of Engineering, National Autonomous University of Nicaragua
Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee
Dr. Shelley McConnell
Associate Professor of Government
St. Lawrence University
3. Israel in a Turbulent Region: A Conversation with Ephraim Sneh | Tuesday, October 23, 2018 | 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm | Wilson Center | 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 6th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Israel sits at the center of a region in the throes of several major challenges, including the situations in Iran, Syria, and Lebanon as well as the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Join the Wilson Center for a conversation with Ephraim Sneh, a long-time Israeli official and analyst of Israel’s foreign policy and the region at large. He will address these challenges as well as the state of U.S.-Israeli relations.
Speakers
Jane Harman
Director, President and CEO, Wilson Center
Aaron David Miller
Vice President for New Initiatives and Middle East Program Director, Wilson Center
General (Ret.) Ephraim Sneh
Chairman, S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue, Netanya Academic College Former Cabinet Member and Knesset Member
4. On the Brink of Brexit: The United Kingdom, Ireland and Europe | Tuesday, October 23, 2018 | 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm | Brookings Institution | Falk Auditorium: 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The United Kingdom will leave the European Union on March 29, 2019. But as the date approaches, important aspects of the withdrawal agreement as well as the future relationship between the U.K. and EU, particularly on trade, remain unresolved. Nowhere are the stakes higher than in Northern Ireland, where the re-imposition of a hard border with Ireland could threaten a hard-fought peace. Scotland, which voted resoundingly against Brexit, has raised questions about the future of devolved governance arrangements in the U.K., while the independence question remains alive. As Robert Bosch Senior Fellow Amanda Sloat writes in her recent report “Divided kingdom: How Brexit is remaking the UK’s constitutional order,” “Brexit will alter not one but two unions: the European Union and the United Kingdom.”
On October 23, 2018, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings will host a panel discussion on the Brexit endgame. It will examine what the decisions of the coming weeks could mean for the U.K., Ireland and Northern Ireland, Scotland, the European Union, and the United States. Sloat will be joined on the panel by Douglas Alexander, former U.K. Secretary of State for Scotland and Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs; Lucinda Creighton, former Irish Minister for European Affairs; and Sir Kim Darroch, British Ambassador to the United States. Edward Luce of the Financial Times will moderate.
Speakers
Thomas Wright
Director, Center on the United States and Europe
Amanda Sloat
Robert Bosch Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Douglas Alexander
Senior Fellow, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
Chair, UNICEF UK
Lucinda Creighton
CEO, Vulcan Consulting
Sir Kim Darroch
British Ambassador to the United States, British Embassy
Edward Luce
Washington Columnist and Commentator, Financial Times
5. The Future of AMISOM | Wednesday, October 24, 2018 | 1:30 pm – 3:30 pm | Center for Strategic & International Studies | 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
A panel discussion addressing the evolution, challenges, and future of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Deployed in 2007 to counter the threat of al-Shabaab in Somalia, AMISOM remains the African Union’s most extensive and dangerous military intervention. Eleven years later, however, Somalia’s security challenges persist. As al-Shabaab continues to stage deadly attacks, questions linger regarding AMISOM’s transition, the commitment of its Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs) and the ability of the Somali National Army to stand on its own.
The event will feature Paul D. Williams, and his recent book, Fighting for Peace in Somalia: A History and Analysis of the African Union Mission (AMISOM), 2007-2017, which offers a meticulous account of AMISOM since its deployment. Paul Williams will present insights from his book on the history and obstacles of AMISOM, and address how AMISOM’s funders and troop contributors envision its future. Amanda Dory, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, will then weigh in on potential avenues through which AMISOM could transition from Somalia.
Speakers
Paul D. Williams
Associate Director of the Security Policy Studies M.A. Program, George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs
Amanda Dory
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, Office of the Secretary of Defense
Judd Devermont
Director, Africa Program
6. US Policy & The War in Yemen | Thursday, October 25, 2018 | 10:00 am – 11:30 pm | Brookings Institute | Falk Auditorium: 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The war in Yemen is in its fourth year of unabating violence. What began as a power struggle within the government has now ensnared a population of nearly 30 million. With tens of thousands killed, millions displaced, and many more dependent on humanitarian assistance for survival, the state is on the brink of collapse
Yemen now constitutes one of the worst humanitarian disasters in the world, in a large and impoverished country. Nonetheless, little discussion is devoted to how U.S. policy affects this disaster and what might be done to ease the dire conditions on the ground. The United States supports the war effort of the Saudi- and Emirati-led coalition in the war, fighting against Iranian-backed Houthis. The war will also have major implications for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its stability. Riyadh is America’s oldest ally in the region and Washington has important geopolitical interests at stake. In September, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo certified that the U.S. allies were working to reduce civilian casualties, reportedly overriding staff recommendations on this.
Speakers
Natan Sachs
Director, Center for Middle East Policy
Bruce Riedel
Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Center for Middle East Policy
Dafna Rand
Vice President for Policy and Research, Mercy Corps
Fatima Abo Alasrar
Senior Analyst, Arabia Foundation
Daniel L. Byman
Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
7. Next Steps for US Strategy in Syria | Friday, October 26, 2018 | 12:00pm – 1:30 pm | Hudson Institute | 1201 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Suite 400 Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Hudson Institute will host a panel to assess U.S. policy in Syria. Panelists will consider how the Trump Administration’s new Syria strategy diverges from previous administrations’ and analyze how the new strategy intends to respond to outside influencers, particularly Russia, Iran, and the Islamic State, who continue to obstruct U.S. efforts within Syria.
Speakers
Mariam Jalabi
Representative, Syrian Opposition Coalition to the United Nations
Michael Doran
Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Jonas Parello-Plesner
Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Jomana Qaddour
Doctoral Candidate, Georgetown University Law Center
Former Senior Policy Analyst, U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom
8. Prevent to Protect: From Counter-Radicalization to Disengagement | Friday, October 26, 2018 | 2:00pm – 3:00 pm | Center for Strategic & International Studies | 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Join Muriel Domenach, Secretary General of the French government’s Inter-ministerial Committee for the Prevention of Delinquency and Radicalization (CIPDR), as she discusses France’s ongoing efforts to counter radicalization and violent extremism.
“Prevent to Protect,” the plan released by CIPDR in February 2018, offered 60 measures to refocus France’s policy of prevention around five key themes:
- Shielding individuals from radicalization
- Widening the detection and prevention network
- Understanding and preparing for developments in radicalization
- Training local stakeholders and assessing practices
- Tailoring disengagement schemes
After Ms. Domenach’s remarks, Seth G. Jones, Harold Brown Chair and Director of the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, will host a moderated armchair discussion comparing and contrasting the French and American perspectives on the issues of returning foreign fighters, counter-narrative efforts, and building community resilience.
Speakers
Muriel Domenach
Secretary General, Interministerial Committee for the Prevention of Delinquency and Radicalization
Seth G. Jones
Harold Brown Chair
Director, Transnational Threats Project
Senior Adviser, International Security Program
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Peace picks July 2 – 15
1. Mexican Ambassador Discusses the Evolving U.S.-Mexico Relationship | Tuesday, July 3, 2018 | 11:30 am – 12:30 pm | Hudson Institute | Register Here
On July 3rd, Hudson Institute will host Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández, Ambassador of Mexico to the United States, for a discussion about the current state of U.S.-Mexico relations. The conversation will be moderated by Hudson Distinguished Fellow Walter Russell Mead.
The U.S.-Mexico relationship has recently faced new challenges. Immigration enforcement has intensified along the shared border; NAFTA renegotiations have progressed slowly, leading some in the Trump Administration to consider bilateral trade deals as an alternative approach with its North American partners; and new tariffs imposed on Mexican steel and aluminum have triggered retaliatory measures. Yet Mexico has long served as a strong regional trade ally and critical partner in efforts to combat narcotics trafficking. Voters in Mexico’s presidential elections on July 1st will likely be influenced by the rapidly evolving relationship between these two countries.
Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernandez was named Ambassador of Mexico to the United States on January 13, 2017 by President Enrique Peña Nieto. During a more than 15-year career as a public servant, Ambassador Fernandez has served under four Mexican presidents. Prior to his most recent appointment, he was the Managing Director of the North American Development Bank (NADB).
Speaker:
His Excellency Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández, Ambassador of Mexico to the United States
Moderator:
Walter Russell Mead, Distinguished Fellow, Hudson Institute
2. Stabilizing Sino-Indian Security Relations: Managing Strategic Rivalry After Doklam | Tuesday, July 10, 2018 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Carnegie Institute for International Peace | Register Here
The Doklam standoff between Indian and Chinese troops in the summer of 2017 coincided with an ongoing deterioration in bilateral relations, and accelerated pre-existing military competition. Frank O’Donnell provides a detailed analysis of Indian and Chinese nuclear and conventional ground force posturing, and illustrates darkening rival perceptions of these actions and their underlying strategic intentions. Join Carnegie for a discussion with O’Donnell on his new paper, Stabilizing Sino-Indian Security Relations, which proposes new measures to limit the recurrence of future Doklam-like episodes and their inherent risk of escalation. Copies of the paper will be available.
Speakers:
Sameer Lalwani: senior associate and co-director of the South Asia program at the Stimson Center.
Tanvi Madan: director of the India Project and fellow in the Project on International Order and Strategy in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution.
Frank O’Donnell: Stanton junior faculty fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, and a nonresident fellow in the South Asia program at the Stimson Center.
George Perkovich: Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini chair and vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
3. Senator Jeff Merkley on Violence and Humanitarian Response in Africa | Wednesday, July 11, 2018 | 9:00 am – 10:00 am | US Institute of Peace | Register Here
Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR) recently returned from a five-country visit to Somalia, South Sudan, Djibouti, Kenya, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to assess the region’s humanitarian crises while seeking to better understand their root causes. He held over 35 meetings with civil society, refugees living in camps, aid workers, government officials, and U.N. peacekeepers. During his visit, it became clear to Senator Merkley that U.S. diplomatic leadership, development aid, and humanitarian response are critical to addressing the root causes of conflict, climate change and corruption.
Senator Merkley will speak about Congress’ priorities on humanitarian- and conflict-related issues in Africa.
Speaker:
Senator Jeff Merkley, US Senator from Oregon, ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Multilateral International Development, Multilateral Institutions, and International Economic, Energy, and Environmental Policy.
Moderator:
Nancy Lindborg, President, U.S. Institute of Peace.
4. Rethinking globalization: How do we rebuild support? | Wednesday, July 11, 2018 | 10:00 am – 11:30 am | American Enterprise Institute | Register Here
The Trump administration’s America First approach to economic policy has brought into stark relief the declining support among a growing number of Americans for what has come to be called “globalization.” But anti-globalization sentiment in the United States has broader support than the Trump base alone and reflects deeper social and economic drivers that policymakers have failed to address over time. Increasingly, Americans wonder what is in “globalization” for them. In today’s hyper-divisive environment, how can policymakers cut through the fractious political discourse and improve our understanding of the impact of an increasingly interconnected world on the American people?
Join AEI and the Brookings Institution for the launch of “Reconceptualizing Globalization,” a joint project to address globalization, anti-globalization, and the importance of engagement for all Americans.
Agenda:
9:45 am – Registration
10:00 am – Discussion
Participants:
Jared Bernstein, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
Daniel W. Drezner, Tufts University
Stephen J. Hadley, RiceHadleyGates
Merit Janow, Columbia University
Moderators:
Joshua Meltzer, Brookings Institution
Neena Shenai, AEI
11:10 am – Q&A
11:30 am – Adjournment
5. War or Deal? The Impact of Trade on the East Asian Economies | Thursday, July 12, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 1:30 pm | Stimson Center | Register Here
Whether a trade war or trade deal, U.S.-China trade disputes are guaranteed to have a spillover effect on the East Asian regional economies. The Trump administration’s recent escalation of tariffs on Chinese goods – with immediate reciprocation from Beijing – is already rippling through the global economy, but U.S. allies and partners in East Asia could be among the hardest hit. Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea have significant exposure to Chinese production, both as importers and exporters in the regional value chain. How does the ongoing trade war – or potential deals in the future – impact the interests of Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea? Join us for a panel discussion with Dr. Liu Shih-Chung, Vice Chairman at the Taiwan External Trade Development Council, Troy Stangarone, Senior Director at the Korea Economic Institute of America, Matthew Goodman, Senior Vice President at the Center for Strategic & International Studies (invited), and Yun Sun, Co-Director of the East Asia Program at Stimson (moderator). A light lunch will be served.
6. Beheading Dragons: Streamlining China’s Environmental Governance | Thursday, July 12, 2018 | 2:00 pm – 4:00 pm | The Wilson Center | Register Here
In March, China’s National People’s Congress passed sweeping reforms to streamline environmental governance in order to more rapidly mitigate China’s crushing air, water, and soil pollution. Natural resource and pollution regulation have long been fragmented and managed by overlapping bureaucracies in China, leading to infighting and buck passing. The Chinese idiom “nine dragons rule the waters” (jiu long zhi shui) aptly captures how nine different government agencies have competed to regulate water. Under today’s reforms, China’s lead environmental watchdog—newly renamed Ministry of Ecological Environment (MEE)—will share water regulation with the Ministry of Water Resources, decreasing nine dragons to two. Another major dragon-slaying reform was to grant most regulatory power over climate change to MEE, a move that will require this newly reconfigured agency to become significantly more powerful than its earlier incarnation.
On July 12, CEF has invited three speakers to unpack the drivers and impacts of this major reform in China. Liu Zhuoshi (Environmental Law Institute) will detail how legal and regulatory authorities around pollution and climate issues are changing. He will also reflect on hurdles Chinese government faces to expand these reforms at the subnational level. Hu Tao (WWF – U.S.) will explore how the new MEE could act more holistically to manage complex pollution issues, like a better coordination on the joint management of air pollution and carbon emission regulations. Liu Shuang (Energy Foundation China) will reflect on the implication of China’s recent governance reforms on efforts to create a national carbon emissions trading systems and what other policies and institutional changes are needed to make it succeed.
Speakers:
Zhuoshi Liu, Staff Attorney at Environmental Law Institute.
Tao Hu, Director of the China program at World Wildlife Fund – US.
Shuang Liu, Director of the Low Carbon Economic Growth Program at Energy Foundation China.
Moderator:
Jennifer L. Turner, Director, China Environment Forum & Manager, Global Choke Point Initiative.
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Peace Picks, June 18 – 24
1. ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum 2018: Assessing the Trump-Kim Summit | Monday, June 18 | 9:00 am – 4:30 pm | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register here
Join CSIS for a timely discussion with scholars, experts, opinion leaders, and government officials from the United States and South Korea who will participate in a series of panel discussions focused on the historic inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korean summit meetings, the potential for denuclearization and building a peace regime on the Korean peninsula, and regional implications of summit diplomacy in Northeast Asia.
9:00 am: Registration
9:30 am: Welcoming Remarks
Dr. John Hamre, President and CEO, CSIS
Ambassador Lee, Sihyung, President, The Korea Foundation
9:45 am: Opening Keynote Address
His Excellency Lim, Sungnam, First Vice Foreign Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea
Moderated by:
Dr. Victor Cha, Senior Adviser and Korea Chair, CSIS; D.S. Song-KF Professor of Government, Georgetown University
10:15 am: Coffee Break
10:30 am: Session I: Assessing the Inter-Korean Summit and the U.S.-North Korea Summit
Ms. Rachel Martin, Host, Morning Edition and Up First, National Public Radio
Dr. Victor Cha, CSIS and Georgetown University
Dr. Sue Mi Terry, Senior Fellow, Korea Chair, CSIS
Dr. Paik, Haksoon, President, The Sejong Institute
Dr. Kim, Joon Hyung, Professor, Handong Global University
11:45 am: Luncheon and Keynote Conversation
Moderated by:
Ambassador Mark Lippert, Vice President, Boeing International; Former U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Korea, U.S. Department of State
1:00 pm: Session II: Denuclearization and Peace Regime on the Korean Peninsula
Mr. Evan Osnos, Staff Writer, The New Yorker
Ms. Rebecca Hersman, Director, Project on Nuclear Issues; Senior Adviser, International Security Program, CSIS
Mr. John Schaus, Fellow, International Security Program, CSIS
Dr. Yoon, Young-kwan, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea
Dr. Lee, Sang Hyun, Senior Research Fellow, The Sejong Institute
2:15 pm: Coffee Break
2:20 pm: Session III: Regional Implications of Summit Diplomacy
Dr. Kim, Heung-Kyu, Professor, Ajou University
Dr. Michael Green, Senior Vice President and Japan Chair, CSIS; Professor and Director, Asian Studies Program, Georgetown University
Mr. Christopher Johnson, Senior Adviser and Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS
Dr. Lee, Hochul, Professor, Incheon National University
Dr. Lee, Shin-wha, Professor, Korea University
3:35 pm: Coffee Break
3:45 pm: Closing and Keynote Address
Senator Cory Gardner, United States Senator for Colorado
Moderated by:
Dr. Victor Cha, CSIS and Georgetown University
4:30 pm: Adjournment
2. Strategic Challenges in the Baltic Sea Region | Monday, June 18 | 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm | The Atlantic Council | Register here
Please join the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative and Future Europe Initiative for a public event on “Strategic Challenges in the Baltic Sea Region: Russia, Deterrence, and Reassurance” on Monday, June 18, 2018 from 1:00 pm. to 2:30 pm.
As an assertive Russia continues to threaten the stability and security of the Baltic Sea region, NATO’s deterrence posture and readiness continues to evolve. The nations of Northern Europe are also working to address the current gaps in national defense capabilities and ensure the security of the Baltic Sea region.
At this crucial juncture for the future of Northern Europe and the Baltic Sea region the Atlantic Council is hosting a public discussion on the new book “Strategic Challenges in the Baltic Sea Region: Russia, Deterrence, and Reassurance” edited by Council senior fellow Ann-Sofie Dahl. This new book sheds light on the complex security challenges of the Baltic Sea region, and provides insights on next steps for bolstering defense and deterrence in the region.
Featuring:
Dr. Ann-Sofie Dahl, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Dr. Andres Kasekamp, Professor, Elmar Tampolf Chair of Estonian Studies, University of Toronto
Dr. Robert Lieber, Professor, Department of Government, Georgetown University
Mr. Magnus Nordenman, Director, Transatlantic Security Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Ambassador Alexander Vershbow, Distinguished Fellow, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
3. Chinese Expansion and the South China Sea: Beijing’s Strategic Ambition and the Asian Order| Monday, June 18 | 3:00 pm – 4:00 pm | The Wilson Center | Register here
China’s ambitions to become Asia’s undisputed regional hegemon is perhaps most evident in the South China Sea, as Beijing creates military bases along remote reefs and islands in a 1.5-million-square mile expanse. Join us for a discussion with Humphrey Hawksley, author of Asian Waters: The Struggle Over the South China Sea and the Strategy of Chinese Expansion and Los Angeles Times Deputy Washington Bureau Chief Bob Drogin for a discussion on the rivalry between China and the United States, and the dilemma facing countries in the region including Vietnam, South Korea, Indonesia, Japan, and the Philippines to challenge China’s dominance. James Clad, the CNA Corporation’s senior advisor for Asia and former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asia, will also join the discussion.
4. Restoring Restraint: Enforcing Accountability for Users of Chemical Weapons | Tuesday, June 19 | 9:00 am – 11:30 am | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register here
In 2012, a 20-year moratorium on state employment of chemical weapons use was broken. Since then there have been more than 200 uses – against civilians, military targets, and political enemies. These attacks have broken norms against the use of weapons of mass destruction and create a gap in the nonproliferation fabric – despite the robust international architecture of laws, treaties, agreements, and norms designed to restrain the proliferation and use of these weapons. Accountability for these recent attacks has been limited or non-existent, which threatens the credibility of the nonproliferation regime and only encourages further use. Leaders must find the political and moral strength to use a full spectrum of tools to re-establish this system of restraint. This event will discuss ways in which the international community is working to rebuild the system of restraint against chemical weapons, and CSIS will also launch on a report on this topic.
9:30 am: Welcome, Rebecca Hersman, Director, Project on Nuclear Issues, and Senior Adviser, International Security Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies
9:45 am: Keynote Address, H.E. Mr Ahmet Üzümcü, Director-General of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons
10:20 am: Panel Discussion, Moderator: Rebecca Hersman, Director, Project on Nuclear Issues, and Senior Adviser, International Security Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Dr. Yleem D.S. Poblete, Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance
Samantha Job, Counsellor for Foreign and Security Policy, British Embassy Washington
Nicolas Roche, Director of Strategic, Security and Disarmament Affairs, French Ministry of Foreign Affairs
11:45 am: Event Concludes
4. Columbia’s Vote: The Road Ahead for the Next President | Tuesday, June 19 | 12:00 pm | The Atlantic Council | Register here
The June 17 presidential runoff election between Iván Duque and Gustavo Petro comes at a critical moment for the country’s future. Colombians will choose between two starkly different visions at a time of deep divide. What will be the trajectory for a hemispheric leader and a close US ally on the regional and world stages?
The next president takes office on August 7 with many immediate tasks including: jumpstarting economic growth now as a member of the OECD; determining next steps around the peace process; putting in place new mechanisms to combat corruption; and navigating the challenges of a deepening crisis next door in Venezuela. What new policies can we expect in these crucial areas?
Join the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center on Tuesday, June 19 from 12:00pm to 1:00pm (EDT)— two days after the Colombian election — for a rapid reaction discussion on what to expect from Colombia’s next president on some of the most pressing issues facing the country today.
Speakers:
Alina Dieste, Washington Correspondent, Agence France-Presse
Tomás González, Member, Atlantic Council Colombia Task Force; Executive Director, Colombia, International Monetary Fund
Juan Carlos López, US Political Director & Anchor, CNN en Español
Jason Marczak, Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
5. Lawless Skies: Airstrikes and Civilian Casualties in Libya | Wednesday, June 20 | 12:15 pm – 1:45 pm | New America | Register here
In 2011, NATO intervened during a national uprising in Libya to protect civilians from the forces of Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi. Today, the environment remains chaotic. At least four countries and two Libyan armies have continued to carry out airstrikes since the end of the NATO intervention.
New America and Airwars, the UK-based airstrike monitoring group, investigated those strikes and published our findings in the paper “Air Strikes and Civilian Casualties in Libya,” co-authored by Peter Bergen, Vice President at New America, and director of New America’s International Security Program (ISP) and Alyssa Sims, a policy analyst in ISP. New America and Airwars documented more than 2,000 airstrikes that were reportedly conducted between September 2012 to June 2018 in Libya. According to news reports and accounts on social media, at least 242 civilians were killed in these strikes, taking the lowest estimate, and as many as 392 killed, by the highest estimate. This study is the first accounting of these civilian deaths.
To discuss the results of the study and the political environment in Libya, New America welcomes Jonathan M. Winer, the State Department’s Special Envoy for Libya during the Obama administration, Chris Woods, an investigative journalist and the director of Airwars, Oliver Imhof, a Libya researcher and data analyst, and Alyssa Sims.
6. The Middle East: A Region in Chaos? | Wednesday, June 20 | 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm | The Wilson Center | Register here
Last December, the Wilson Center and the U.S. Institute of Peace co-sponsored an event on turmoil across the Middle East with four experienced analysts and practitioners. We agreed to gather again a half-year later to review our observations and conclusions.
Six months later, a scan of the landscape reveals many changes: a new phase in the ongoing war in Syria; recent elections in Iraq, Tunisia, and Lebanon; and U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement. At the same time, we see a stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process – and yet, the possibility of a new peace initiative from the Trump administration; the continuing war in Yemen; a continuing rift within the GCC; and potential for a serious Israeli-Iranian conflict in Syria.
Please join the Wilson Center as our four veteran analysts reconvene to address these and related issues in a region whose volatility shows no signs of abating.
Speakers:
Jane Harman, Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center
Mike Yaffe, Vice President, Middle East and Africa, U.S. Institute of Peace
Aaron David Miller, Vice President for New Initiatives and Middle East Program Director, Historian, analyst, negotiator, and former advisor to Republican and Democratic Secretaries of State on Arab-Israeli negotiations, 1978-2003; Global Affairs Analyst with CNN
Bruce Riedel, Senior Fellow and Director, Brookings Intelligence Project, Brookings Institution
Robin Wright, USIP-Wilson Center Distinguished Fellow, Journalist and author/editor of eight books, and contributing writer for The New Yorker
Mona Yacoubian, Senior Advisor, Syria, Middle East and North Africa, U.S. Institute of Peace
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Peace picks, June 4 – 10
- U.S. – North Korean Summit: Cancelled or Postponed? Tuesday, June 5 | 1:30 pm – 4:30 pm | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here
What are the ramifications of the sudden termination of the planned meeting between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un? What factors led to the cancellation and has the door been permanently closed on a diplomatic solution to the North Korean nuclear problem? Will North Korea abandon its moratorium and resume nuclear and missile tests and escalate tension on the Korean Peninsula. Will there be a resumption of advocacy for a U.S. preventive military attack on North Korea? As Pyongyang, Seoul, Beijing, and Washington engaged in summit diplomacy, Japan had been the neglected partner. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had established the closest relationship with President Trump of any world leader but then seemed ignored during the summit mania. Does the U.S.-North Korea summit cancellation vindicate Abe’s firm approach to Pyongyang or has there been lasting impact on his political strength as well as Japan’s relationship with the United States?
Join us as two panels of distinguished experts discuss these and other topics as well as make recommendations for U.S. policy in the uncertain time ahead. Speakers include Duyeon Kim (Visiting Senior Research Fellow, Korean Peninsula Future Forum), Dr. Lee Sung-Yoon (Kim Koo-Korea Foundation Professor in Korean Studies and Assistant Professor, The Fletcher School, Tufts University), Dr. Sue Mi Terry (Senior Fellow, Korea Chair, Center for Strategic and International Studies), Dr. Jeffrey W. Hornung (Political Scientist, The RAND Corporation), James Schoff (Senior Fellow, Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) and Yuki Tatsumi (Co-Director of the East Asia Program and Director of the Japan Program, The Stimson Center).
- The Long Search for Peace in Afghanistan | Thursday, June 7 | 1:30 pm – 4:30 pm | US Institute of Peace | Register Here
Please join the U.S. Institute of Peace on Thursday, June 7 for a multi-panel discussion on practical steps for the search for peace in Afghanistan. This effort has moved to center stage in recent months following President Ashraf Ghani’s late February peace offer to the Taliban, a series of major international conferences that consolidated support for a peace deal, and a wave of pro-peace demonstrations across Afghanistan. Crucial questions nonetheless remain: What it will take to get the Taliban to join peace talks in earnest? What will a prospective peace agreement look like? How does the peace process affect the Afghan and international military campaign?
The event will examine the issue from two crucial perspectives: the top-down effort to reach a political settlement involving the Taliban, and the bottom-up effort to forge peace in local communities. We will feature a distinguished and diverse range of American, Afghan, and other experts who have directly worked on this issue in government, the United Nations, academia, and civil society. They will provide a comprehensive look at an effort that is vital to Afghanistan’s future, but often poorly understood outside a small community of experts. Speakers include Steve Brooking (Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary General for Afghanistan), Laurel Miller (Former State Department Acting Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan), Barnett Rubin (Senior Fellow and Associate Director of the Center for International Cooperation, New York University), Michael Semple (Visiting Professor, Institute for the Study of Conflict Transformation and Social Justice, Queen’s University, Belfast), Kate Clark (Director, Afghan Analysts Network) and Erica Gaston (Non-Resident Fellow, Global Public Policy Institute). Moderated by Johnny Walsh (Senior Expert on Afghanistan, US Institute of Peace).
- Colombia’s Choice: Analyzing the First Round of the Presidential Election | Thursday, June 7 | 3:00 pm – 4:30 pm | Inter-American Dialogue | Register Here
On Sunday, May 27, Colombians head to the polls for the first round of a critically important presidential election, the first since a peace accord was signed with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in late 2016. Polls show Iván Duque of the Democratic Center Party with the lead, followed by Gustavo Petro, who heads a leftist coalition. The country remains highly polarized around the terms and implementation of the peace agreement. Combating corruption and curbing drug cultivation and trafficking are key challenges, as responding to the exploding migration crisis in Venezuela. The next government will also have to deal with a tough fiscal situation as it seeks to improve education, health and infrastructure.
The Dialogue is pleased to host a discussion after the first round of the presidential race, to interpret the results and explore what we can expect, should there be a second round on June 17. What is the outlook moving forward? What are the implications of the vote for addressing the country’s wide-ranging and complex peace/security, political, economic and social agendas? Speakers include Catalina Botero (Dean of the Law School at Universidad de los Andes), Juan Carlos Iragorri (Director, Club de Prensa, NTN24) and Peter Schechter (Political commentator and co-host of the Altamar Podcast). Moderated by Michael Shifter (President, Inter-American Dialogue).
- U. S. – Indonesia Relations and the Rise of China | Friday, June 8 | 10:00 am – 11:30 am | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here
The Rise of China is a reality. Its influence – and the opportunity it represents – is being felt from the Pacific to the Atlantic. Southeast Asia, however, is a neighbor. Indonesia, in fact, given Indonesian maritime claims, is right next door. Indonesia has a centuries-long history of dealing with China’s power. How should its government today see the balance between threat and opportunity represented in its rise? How should it make the most of China’s economic contributions to the region’s development? How should it push back on unwelcome initiatives, particularly around issues of maritime security? Where are the intersecting areas of interest with the United States and how should it view a U.S.-China rivalry? What is ASEAN’s role? These are just a few of the questions on the table for this event. Please join us we explore them and many more with our distinguished guests. Speakers include Hon. Rizal Ramli (Former Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and former Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Republic of Indonesia), Cameron Hume (Chairman, American Indonesian Chamber of Commerce, and former U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia) and Brian Harding (Deputy Director and Fellow, Southeast Asia Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies). Hosted by Walter Lohman (Director, Asian Studies Center).
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