Tag: Lebanon

Peace picks May 16-20

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - May 15, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. The New Arab Wars: Uprisings and Anarchy in the Middle East | Monday, May 16th | 12:00-1:30 | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Less than twenty-four months after the hope-filled Arab uprising, the popular movement had morphed into a dystopia of resurgent dictators, failed states, and civil wars. Marc Lynch’s new book, The New Arab Wars, is a profound illumination of the causes of this nightmare. It details the costs of the poor choices made by regional actors, delivers a scathing analysis of Western misreading of the conflict, and questions international interference that has stoked the violence. Please join us for a discussion of the book’s main findings with Marc Lynch, moderated by Michele Dunne, director and a senior associate in Carnegie’s Middle East Program. A light lunch will provided from 12:00 to 12:30 p.m. The discussion will begin at 12:30 p.m., with an introduction by Carnegie President William J. Burns. Following the discussion, copies of the book will be available for sale with signing by the author.
  1. Preventing Another Tragedy: The Plight of Crimean Tatars | Monday, May 16th | 12:00-1:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | On May 18, 1944, the Soviet Union began the deportation of Crimean Tatars to Central Asia. Decades later, Tatars returned to an independent Ukraine. Since Russia’s illegally attempted annexation of Crimea in 2014, Crimean Tatars have born the brunt of increasing human rights violations in the peninsula: they suffer searches, kidnappings, torture, and killings, and authorities shut down their cultural institutions. Recently, the Russian authorities banned the Mejlis, the Tatars’ legislature. The panel will discuss the Crimean Tatars’ plight, and how the West should respond to the human rights situation and the efforts to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity. We hope you can join us for this important and timely discussion ahead of Ukraine’s Day of Remembrance for the Victims of the Deportation of the Crimean Tatars. Panelists include Valeriy Chaly, Ambassador, Embassy of Ukraine, Emine Dzheppar, First Deputy Minister, Ministry of Information Policy, Ukraine, Dr. Agnia Grigas, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, and John Herbst, Director, Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council.
  1. TPP: A Strategic Imperative—A Conversation with Admiral Michael Mullen | Monday, May 16th | 5:00-6:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Debate on the merits of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) often overlook its strategic ramifications. This is true whether on the presidential campaign trail or in the soon-to-be-released International Trade Commission report on the deal’s economic impact. But trade carries both economic and security ramifications. How would TPP help to secure strategic US leadership in Asia and partnership in Latin America at a time of global uncertainty? Join us for the first public event in which Admiral Michael Mullen, former Chairman of the Joints Chief of Staff, will speak on the national security implications of TPP. Governor Jon M. Huntsman, Jr., Chairman, Atlantic Council, will make introductory remarks. Jason Marczak, Director, Latin America Economic Growth Initiative, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council, will moderator.
  1. Dadaab to Dollo Ado: Why East Africa’s Refugee Crisis Can No Longer Be Ignored | Tuesday, May 17th | 9:00-10:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | On May 6, 2016, the government of Kenya announced plans to end the hosting of refugees by closing the world’s largest refugee camp and taking other steps that would put the safety of nearly 600,000 people at risk. Kenya has played a vital leadership role in East Africa for decades by providing safety to people forced to flee war and persecution in Somalia, South Sudan,and other neighboring countries. The news may affect other countries hosting refugees from the same conflicts, including Ethiopia, where drought and insecurity make humanitarian response increasingly complex. Join the Wilson Center for a conversation with the Kenya and Ethiopia country representatives of the United Nations Refugee Agency on these emerging developments and current efforts to respond to what have tragically become “forgotten crises” at a time when global conflict and displacement are at a historical high. It is a year full of opportunities to improve the response to such crises, including this month’s World Humanitarian Summit and two September summits on refugees being convened by the United Nations General Assembly and President Obama. Panelists include Roger-Mark De Souza, Director of Population, Environmental Security, and Resilience at the Wilson Center, John Thon Majok, Program Associate, Environmental Change and Security Program at the Wilson Center, Raouf Mazou, Representative in Kenya, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, and Clementine Awu Nkweta-Salami, Representative in Ethiopia, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
  1. Broken Borders, Broken States: One Hundred Years After Sykes-Picot | Tuesday, May 17th | 9:00-1:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916, regularly cited as the document that sanctioned the division of the former Ottoman Empire into British and French zones of influence, creating new states and drawing new borders, was never implemented. The boundaries negotiated by Mark Sykes and Francois Picot were superseded by political reality, and the post war-map of the region bore almost no resemblance to that drawn by the two diplomats. The failure of the Sykes-Picot agreement, and the history of what eventually shaped the post-Ottoman order in the Middle East, is critical in analyzing the current turmoil in the region and the forces that might shape it in the future. Panels and panelists may be found here.
  1. Higher education in Syria: Protecting academia amid civil war | Tuesday, May 17th | 10:00-11:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The war in Syria has generated the 21st century’s worst humanitarian crisis, with as many as 300,000 Syrians killed and half the population displaced. This violence and insecurity has also had a devastating impact on professors, university students, and the country’s education sector, exemplifying the consequences when scholars are targeted. Before the conflict, Syria boasted one of the Middle East’s largest and most well-established higher education systems. War, however, has decimated the university system inside the country, and amongst the refugees are an estimated 2,000 university professionals and a minimum of 100,000 university-qualified students. On May 17, the Center for Universal Education at Brookings will host a panel discussion to explore the frequently overlooked impact of the Syrian crisis, and the broader political and security implications on higher education in conflict settings. The panel will also highlight the Institute for International Education’s Scholar Rescue Fund, which supports visiting appointments for threatened scholars worldwide, as well as perspectives from a Syrian beneficiary of the fund. After the session, panelists will take audience questions. Panelists include Mohammad Alahmad, Visiting Lecturer, Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, Georgetown University, Rochelle Davis, Associate Professor and Academic Director in Arab Studies, Georgetown University, Allan E. Goodman, President and CEO of the Institute of International Education, and Jennifer L. Windsor, Chief Executive Officer, Women for Women International. Rebecca Winthrop, Director, Center for Universal Education.
  1. Human rights in a turbulent world: A conversation with United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein | Tuesday, May 17th | 12:15-1:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | In today’s world, threats to human rights abound, challenging the fabric of so many societies: The war in Syria has shattered the lives of millions, with human rights under attack on multiple fronts; rising authoritarianism is curtailing basic liberties in many countries; and the rights of women and marginalized communities remain under constant pressure around the world. International tools for responding to and preventing human rights violations are proliferating, but political will for action is weak. On May 17, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein for an Alan and Jane Batkin International Leaders Forum focusing on the international progress and challenges facing human rights and how the United Nations is meeting them. High Commissioner Zeid will offer his assessment of how the Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rights and other U.N. bodies are working to ensure effective global action to safeguard human rights in today’s turbulent context. High Commissioner Zeid will speak on the U.N.’s role in the field, its impact, and its contributions to the prevention of crises and early warning of unfolding human rights violations. After the program, the speaker will take questions from the audience.
  1. A Conversation with The Right Honourable Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila, Prime Minister of the Republic of Namibia | Tuesday, May 17th | 2:30-4:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Namibia has been lauded for its success in generating economic growth, establishing democracy, and ensuring political stability. But this success story still faces important challenges ahead. Sparsely-populated and with vast deserts, Namibia is particularly vulnerable to climate change. The need to provide more opportunities women, reduce poverty, expand educational and economic opportunities, and incorporate the next generation of women leaders, particularly given the country’s vast youth bulge, is critical. What’s next for Namibia as it tackles these and other key issues? Join as we discuss these fascinating successes and challenges ahead with the country’s Prime Minister Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila. Other speakers include Melvin P. Foote, President, Constituency for Africa, and Gwen Young, Director, Women in Public Service Project.
  1. India in Asia: A Conversation with Nirupama Rao | Wednesday, May 18th | 10:30-12:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Asia region boasts two-thirds of the world’s population, and will soon house more wealth than any other region. Its military reach is expanding globally, and it is home to several rising powers. Ambassador Nirupama Rao, a former Indian foreign secretary and one of her country’s most distinguished diplomats, will discuss how she envisions the role of India in its broader neighborhood, with particular attention to the Asia Pacific. What are India’s objectives? What are the opportunities and challenges? How should the past inform present policy? And what are the implications for India’s relations with the United States? This event marks the launch of the Wilson Center’s India in Asia initiative—one meant to fill a need in the Washington discussion of what may be the world’s next superpower, and that seeks to advance U.S. understanding of India. The initiative examines how one of Washington’s key partners engages in one of the world’s key regions—one to which the U.S. pledges to rebalance. Topics will encompass diplomacy, security, economics, and trade.
  1. Civilian Suffering in Arab Conflicts: A Discussion with Kenneth Roth of Human Rights Watch | Wednesday, May 18th | 12:00-1:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Throughout the last decade, the human cost of Arab conflicts has affected millions in the region as well as populations across the transatlantic community. Policy makers and humanitarian leaders often address these conflicts at cross purposes given divergent—and seemingly incompatible—priorities. Please join us on May 18 for a discussion with executive director of Human Rights Watch Kenneth Roth to explore these priorities. Are there options to protect civilians in Syria that would not only save lives but also reduce the flow of refugees to Europe that is destabilizing the continent, and diminish the recruiting capabilities of extremist organizations including the Islamic State (ISIS)? Do similar trends span across the region’s conflicts, suggesting there exists a shared interest that could lead to cooperative action by governmental and nongovernmental decision-makers?
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The confessional/ethnic temptation

Posted in Daniel Serwer - January 28, 2016 - 0 Comment

Henri Barkey writes in The American Interest:

The U.S. government [should commit] itself to the creation of a confederal democratic Syria that is divided along confessional and ethnic lines. In its most elementary form, the new Syria would be divided along three main areas, Alawi/Christian, Sunni, and Kurdish, with Damascus remaining as the capital although temporarily run by a UN administration.

How simple! How neat! How symmetrical!

How homicidal.

I’d be the first to admit that something like this confessional/ethnic cantonalization is emerging from the chaos of Syria’s civil war. The Kurds have established several cantons of what they are calling “Rojava” along the Turkish border. Alawites, Shiites and Christians are retreating from central Syria to the west. The Islamic State dominates a good part of the east, though there is no single “Sunni” area but rather a patchwork of them. Ultimately some sort of equilibrium may emerge organically that resembles what us conflict management nerds call a mutually hurting stalemate, one of the key conditions for a negotiated outcome.

But that is a different proposition from US advocacy of confessional and ethnic cantonalization, which implies someone in Washington or New York drawing lines. That would lead quickly to ethnic cleansing, because each group would seek to establish unquestioned dominance over its own territory. There is no single concentration of Sunnis. Creating one can be done, but only by force. What will happen to Alawites and Christians who have managed to survive in Sunni areas through the war, but now find themselves on the wrong side of some line drawn in Washington? What will happen to the Sunnis who inhabit western areas of Syria, none of whose provinces were majority Alawite before the war? Those who don’t “belong” will be chased out, forced across the lines into what someone in Washington or New York has designated as their homeland.

If you don’t like Sykes-Picot, you are sure not to like Henri’s proposition.

The only group in Syria that would jump at it is the Islamic State. It would get recognition of its dominance in parts of eastern Syria. That alone should give any American pause. It should also have made the editors of a publication called The American Interest hesitate.

Worst off would be Damascus, where Henri proposes the UN govern, temporarily. But Damascus is as mixed as all of Syria, with significant populations of Sunnis, Shia, Alawites, Kurds and Christians. Ethnic cleansing there would take particularly brutal and unforgiving forms as each of those groups tries to protect itself from others and dominate the capital. Where would UN capability to prevent that from happening come from? Who is going to deploy peacekeeping forces quickly and effectively to back up a UN administration?

Consider also the regional impact. The Kurdish PKK would get official recognition of its safe haven in Syria, from which it could continue to attack Turkey. Ankara won’t go along with that. Islamic State ambitions to control Anbar and Ninewa provinces in Iraq would get a big boost. Baghdad wouldn’t accept that. Some in Beirut would be tempted to think about a “greater” Lebanon, incorporating turf from Syria. The Jordanian border, on both sides of which there are the same tribes, would be at risk.

The United States already has a perfectly good vision for the future of Syria: an inclusive, pluralistic polity that settles its issues peacefully within well-established institutions. That’s not what is lacking. It is the political will and resources to make it happen that are missing.

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Is Saudi-Iranian de-escalation possible?

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - January 13, 2016 - 0 Comment

On Tuesday the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW) presented a panel discussion, ‘The Saudi-Iranian Confrontation: What Lies Ahead.’ The participants considered the implications of the Saudi Arabian execution of Nimr al-Nimr, the assault on the Saudi Embassy in Iran, and the Saudi government breaking diplomatic ties with Iran. Participants included David Ottaway, a former correspondent for The Washington Post and current senior scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center, Barbara Slavin, the acting director of the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council, and Randa Slim, a non-resident senior fellow at the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute. Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar of AGSIW, moderated the panel.

Ibish began the discussion asking why Saudi Arabia took the initiative to carry out the execution of a significant Shia cleric. The three panel members agreed that this was intended to be a message of strength.  Ottaway said that the Saudi government believed Nimr encouraged secession, striking a regime nerve. Slim added that the execution was a message to Iran that even someone of particular importance to Shia Islam could be killed because it was in Saudi Arabia’s best domestic interest.

The attack on the Saudi Embassy by Iranian protestors in Tehran exposed a split in President Rouhani’s regime. Slavin commented that the attack showed that the Rouhani government is not in control of all aspects of the Iranian government. Slim explained that Iran looked as if it had failed to protect Shiites in Saudi Arabia, so Iranians needed a power move to demonstrate their discontent. The Saudi response to the attack on the embassy was to break diplomatic and trade ties. Though the Saudis and Iranians escalated, the panelists agreed that direct violence against one another is not an objective of either regime. Proxy wars are certainly not out of the picture, though. Ottaway interpreted the cutting of diplomatic ties as the Saudi government taking a hard-hitting approach to anyone or any ideainternal or external, that threatens their power.

Resentment between the two nations remains strong. Ottaway, in particular, expressed concern about potential accidents that could intensify the current tension. Flying over disputed airspace, resources, and inflammatory comments could all push bilateral relations past the point of repair.

The discussion ended with the panelists pondering if there could be a potential agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, or if another Cold War scenario is possible. Ottaway believes that if a hot button issue, such as the agreement on a Lebanese president by both Saudi Arabia and Iran is possible, then perhaps they could work out other issues. He added that the Syrian negotiations, with both Saudi Arabia and Iran working together for the same peacekeeping goal, could result in parallel talks between the two regimes. Slim suggested that as long as Iran has a problem with Saudi Arabia, then it will have a problem reaching out to the rest of the Sunni Arab world. Slavin said Iran is looking forward to trading with its Arab neighbors, so the Tehran is more open to repairing the damage.

A question pertaining to collateral damage to the region as a whole. Slim talked about how sectarian tensions will prevent the issues of better governance and citizens’ demands from getting the attention they merit. The panelists agreed the most damage will be done to human rights in the region, with the focus on sectarian conflict increasing. No external force has the power or will to make human rights the main issue on the regional agenda. As the conflict between Iranian and Saudi regimes escalates, regional security will continue to suffer. That’s what likely lies ahead.

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Peace picks December 7-11

Posted in Heidi Liedtke - December 7, 2015 - 0 Comment
  1. Conflict Prevention and Resolution Forum: The Future Of Goal 16: Peace and Inclusion In the Sustainable Development Goals | Tuesday, December 8 | 9:30-11:00am | SAIS | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) make a clear link between conflict and development, thanks to the powerful language about peace in the preamble to the along with the inclusion of Goal 16 on “peaceful and inclusive societies.” This emphasis recognizes that protracted conflict undermined the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in many countries, and it creates a new international focus on peacebuilding as one of the solutions to development challenges.How did the international community shift its thinking toward peace and inclusion in the SDGs, and where do we go from here? The inclusion of peace as a goal in the SDGs was not a foregone conclusion, and panelists will discuss both how advocacy helped ensure a role for peacebuilding in the SDGs and what that means for the next 15 years. They will also discuss the challenge that remains for governments, organizations, and individuals to implement and evaluate these global goals.
  2. Implementing Camp David: US-GCC Security Cooperation Since The Summit | Tuesday, December 8 | 12:30-2:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | President Obama convened leaders from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states in May 2015 to discuss reassurance and security cooperation in light of the P5+1 nuclear agreement with Iran. The United States and Gulf Arab monarchies agreed to improve future cooperation on ballistic missile defense, counter-proliferation, counterterrorist financing, cybersecurity, and a range of other issues. Six months after the summit, with the Iran deal secured and amidst the Middle East’s continuing crises, US-GCC security cooperation remains critically important. What have been the notable successes and challenges since Camp David? To what extent has progress been made in key areas? Has the region’s security situation benefitted from US-Gulf cooperation in light of the continuing fight against ISIS and other crises? Speakers include: James L. Jones, President, Jones Group International, Nawaf Obaid
    Visiting Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, Barry Pavel
    Vice President, Arnold Kanter Chair, and Director, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security Atlantic Council, Frederick Kempe President and CEO
    Atlantic Council, and moderated by Karen DeYoung, Senior National Security Correspondent, Washington Post.
  3. Syria: Steps Toward Peace Or Deepening Intractability? | Tuesday, December 8 | 5:30pm | Brookings Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Soon to be in its sixth year, the conflict in Syria remains as deadly as ever. The consequences of an increasingly complex and seemingly intractable civil war are now also being felt internationally to an alarming degree. Recent attacks in Beirut and Paris warn of the danger of Syria’s continued breakdown. With nearly 300,000 people recorded killed, 12 million others displaced, and vast refugee flows overwhelming Syria’s neighbors and now Europe, finding a solution is nothing short of urgent. Recent multilateral meetings in Vienna demonstrated renewed diplomatic determination to negotiate peace for Syria, but significant differences remain between the conflict’s principal power-brokers.This Brookings Doha Center policy discussion aims to explore the current status of the Syrian conflict and the roles being played by an ever expanding list of actors. Does a moderate opposition still exist in Syria, and if so, what does that mean? Does the Vienna process provide hope for a durable political solution? How can the armed opposition play a role in shaping a political solution in Syria? What is the future of Salafi-jihadi militancy in Syria and what are the local, regional, and global ramifications? Speakers include, Mouaz Al Khatib, Former President, National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, Noah Bonsey, Senior Analyst Syria, International Crisis Group, Charles Lister, Visiting Fellow, Foreign Policy, Brookings Doha Center.
  4. Manning the Future Fleet | Wednesday, December 9 | 10:00-11:00am | CSIS | REGISTER TO ATTEND| The Maritime Security Dialogue brings together CSIS and U.S. Naval Institute, two of the nation’s most respected non-partisan institutions. The series is intended to highlight the particular challenges facing the Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard, from national level maritime policy to naval concept development and program design. Given budgetary challenges, technological opportunities, and ongoing strategic adjustments, the nature and employment of U.S. maritime forces are likely to undergo significant change over the next ten to fifteen years. The Maritime Security Dialogue provides an unmatched forum for discussion of these issues with the nation’s maritime leaders.
  5. Breaking the Silence: Societal Attitudes Toward SGBV In Syria | Wednesday, December 9 | 2:00- 3:30pm | Syria Justice and Accountability Centre | REGISTER TO ATTEND | As the Syrian conflict continues with increasing levels of violence, reports have emerged indicating that government forces and extremist groups are using sexual and gender based violence (SGBV) as a tool of war. However reliable information on SGBV remains scarce due to social stigma and survivors’ fears that they may be ostracized from their communities if they come forward with their stories. As part of its efforts to ethically and comprehensively document all violations of the conflict, including SGBV, SJAC commissioned a report from the Syria Research and Evaluation Organization (SREO) to assess Syrians’ attitudes towards survivors and perpetrators of SGBV. The results were surprising. Speakers include: Ambassador Steven E. Steiner, Gender Advisor USIP, Shabnam Mojtahidi, Legal and Strategy Analyst, Syria Justice and Accountability Center, Cindy Dyer, Vice President of Human Rights, Vital Voices, and Sussan Tahmasebi, Director of MENA, ICAN.
  6. Cyber Risk Wednesday: 2016 Threat Landscape | Wednesday, December 9 | 4:00-5:30 pm | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND  | On the cyber front, 2015 paints a dark picture. The year has been filled with massive data breaches, disruptive cyberattacks, and espionage. Neither government agencies nor private companies were safe. Nations have become increasingly comfortable with fighting their battles online, using covert cyberattacks to accompany traditional warfare in on-going conflicts in Ukraine, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.  Will 2016 be any different? While data breaches and hybrid warfare are likely to continue, Internet users’ awareness of cybersecurity issues has reached an all-time high, companies are pouring investments into strengthening their cyber defenses, the United States and China were able to reach a deal banning commercial cyber espionage despite the countries’ otherwise lukewarm relations, and the privacy issues are getting prime time attention. Speakers include: Luke Dembosky
    Deputy Assistant Attorney General for National Security
    US Department of Justice, Jason Healey Senior Fellow, Cyber Statecraft Initiative, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council, Ellen Nakashima National Security Reporter The Washington Post, and Mark O’Hare 
    Director, President, and CEO, Security First Corp.
  7. Implementing Counterinsurgency In Afghanistan: Lessons From Village Stability Operations And Afghan Local Police (VSO/ALP) | Thursday, December 10 | 11:00 am | Institute of World Politics | REGISTER TO ATTEND | In 2010, towards the end of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in Afghanistan, US Special Operations Forces (SOF) and their international partners experimented with a new way of implementing counterinsurgency, Village Stability Operations (VSO) and Afghan Local Police (ALP). VSO/ALP is based on a “bottom-up” rather than “top-down” approach that focused on soldiers interacting with local Afghan populations, supporting traditional local tribal governance, and training local security forces.  In this discussion, Dr. Lofdahl will review lessons which can be drawn from the VSO/ALP experience in Afghanistan. Speaker: Dr. Corey Lofdahl, Senior Scientist at Charles River Analytics.
  8.  Planning for Korean Unification: What Is Seoul Doing? | Thursday, December 10 | 12:00-1:30 pm | The Heritage Foundation | REGISTER TO ATTEND | South Korean President Park Geun-hye has made Korean unification a central tenet of her foreign policy strategy. More so than her predecessors, she has made reunification a tangible objective. Despite repeated attempts at reconciliation, North Korea has rejected dialogue and criticizes President Park’s unification outreach as unrealistic, seeing it as a threat to regime stability. Issues to be addressed would include the blueprints of Korean unification, how to overcome North Korean resistance, and how to achieve or pay for it. To learn more about South Korea’s plans for achieving unification, join us for a discussion with three distinguished members of South Korea’s bipartisan Presidential Committee for Unification Preparation. Speakers include: Dr. Chung Chong-wook, Vice-Chairman of the Presidential Committee for Unification Preparation, Dr. Moon Chung-in, Professor of Political Science, Yonsei University, and Dr. Kim Byung-yeon Professor Economics, Seoul National University.
  9. Hope, Innovation, Activism: The Critical Role Of Millennials In Afghanistan | Thursday, December 10 | 12:00 – 1:30pm | Rumi Forum | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Ambassador Dr. Hamdullah Mohib will explore why this demographic matters — the role of millennials in Afghan society today, and the important role they have to play in the country’s future on December 10, 2015. A young man builds an aircraft from scratch; a teenage boy builds an internet connection out of trash scraps; a young woman uses her savings to found a coding school for girls and a women-run IT company; a group of students initiate a recycling campaign to clean up their city; young people rally on social media and in the streets to protest the unjust killing of a young woman. These are stories from Afghanistan that you don’t hear about.  Roughly 75% of the population in Afghanistan is under the age of 35.  While much of the media focuses on the challenges of the new government and the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan today, the country’s hopeful, innovative, educated and active millennial population is defining and building the country’s future.
  10. Climate Security and Migration |  Friday, December 11 | 10:00am – 12:00 pm | Center for New American Security | REGISTER TO ATTEND | ‪On December 11, please join CNAS for a public event on climate security and migration. We will explore questions of how the United States, in collaboration with foreign partners, multilateral institutions, and civil society, should tackle future climate migration. What are the key initiatives, institutions and challenges involved in successfully addressing climate migration? Does the issue of climate migration fit our current framework and processes for dealing with migration? What should the international community be doing now? The events over the summer and fall in Europe, albeit not due to climate change, were illustrative of the scale of the challenges involved for policymakers and security leaders. Climatic change will add another layer to the challenges the global community will face in addressing migration, including explicitly climate change-driven migration, in the years ahead. Speakers include: ‪Hon. Sharon E. Burke, Senior Advisor, New America, Dr. Daniel Chiu, Deputy Director, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council‪, ‪Sherri Goodman, CEO and President, Consortium for Ocean Leadership, and ‪CDR Jim Moran, Senior Strategist, Emerging Policy, Deputy Commandant for Operations U.S. Coast Guard
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Peace picks Nov 23-27

Posted in Heidi Liedtke - November 23, 2015 - 0 Comment
  1. The “Pitiless” War: A Strategy After the Paris Attacks | Monday November 23rd | 10:00 – 11:15 | German Marshall Fund | REGISTER TO ATTEND | In the aftermath of the November 13 terrorist attacks in Paris committed by the self-proclaimed Islamic State group (ISIS), French President François Hollande declared that “….we are going to lead a war which will be pitiless.” What is the proper military, intelligence, and diplomatic response to counter to these recent brutal attacks against Western targets? What role will the United States play going forward? What does Europe need to do differently to meet this threat? What should the transatlantic alliance do about Syria and Iraq? With Hollande scheduled to meet U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington on November 24, and with these questions in mind, The German Marshall Fund of the Unites States (GMF) is pleased to invite you to an on-the-record discussion. Speakers include: Ambassador James Franklin Jeffrey, Philip Solondz Distinguished Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy; Matthew G. Olsen, Former Director, National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC); Derek Chollet, Counselor and Senior Advisor for Security and Defense Policy, The German Marshall Fund of the United States; Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs.
  2. The Deteriorating State of Human Rights in China | Monday, November 23rd | 12:00 – 1:30 | CATO Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Since assuming the presidency of China in 2013, Xi Jinping has become the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, centralizing his authority over the Communist Party, the military, and the government. Eminent scholars and civil rights activists from China will describe the deterioration of human rights under Xi’s rule, citing the rise of arbitrary arrests and detentions; a crackdown on academic freedom; the persecution of some ethnic groups; and increasing restrictions on journalists, the internet, religious organizations, and other groups in civil society. The speakers will discuss those developments within the context of other policies, including a new national security law, an anti-corruption campaign, and economic measures in the face of a significant growth slowdown. Speakers include: Chen Guangcheng, Visiting Fellow, Catholic University; Teng Biao, Associate, Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, Harvard Kennedy School; and Wei Jingsheng, Chairman, Wei Jingsheng Foundation; with comments by Xia Yeliang, Visiting Fellow, Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity, Cato Institute; moderated by Ian Vasquez, Director, Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity, Cato Institute.
  3. Understanding ISIS: Paris, Beirut, and U.S. Policy Webinar | Monday, November 23rd |4:00 – 5:00| Institute for Policy Studies | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Terrorism survives wars, people don’t. Last week’s attacks in Paris left over 100 people dead. In Beirut, car bombs killed 43 people. Shortly before these attacks, President Obama defended his “war on terror” and said that ISIS was contained. As the civilian death toll rises and the refugee crisis grows, the U.S. global war on terror continues — and continues to fail, ultimately because you can’t bomb terrorism out of existence. In this 1-hour webinar, IPS Middle East expert Phyllis Bennis will discuss the new developments in Paris and Beirut, in the refugee crisis in Europe and the U.S., and discuss solutions that promote true diplomacy over military action.
  4. A New Cold War? The West and Russia | Monday, November 23rd | 5:30pm | Foreign Policy Research Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the prospect of protracted confrontation between Russia and the West has so far met with an uncertain response on the part of the West. Has a new  Cold War begun, and how should America and its allies respond?  Nikolas Gvosdev, a frequent commentator on Russian and Eurasian affairs will explore these issues. He was the Editor of The National Interest magazine and  a Senior Fellow at The Nixon Center in Washington, D.C. He received his doctorate from St Antony’s College, Oxford University, where he studied on a Rhodes Scholarship. His work has appeared in such outlets as Foreign Affairs, The Financial  Times, The  Los Angeles Times, and Orbis, and he has appeared as a commentator on CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, National Public Radio, and BBC.
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Tatters

Posted in Daniel Serwer - September 28, 2015 - 2 Comments

American policy in Syria has supported the “moderate” opposition and sought the removal of Bashar al Assad. Four and a half years into the rebellion there, extremists have largely sidelined the moderate opposition in the center of the country. Russia and Iran are doubling down on their support for Bashar al Assad, who is well on towards fulfilling his prophecy “either me or the jihadis.”

Washington has also wanted to protect Syria’s neighbors from its civil war. Efforts to contain the war’s effects have been no more successful than the efforts to win it. With more than 4 million refugees unsettling Syria’s neighbors and 7 million displaced inside the country, it will take decades to restore the region to some semblance of order. The Islamic State has taken over one third of Iraq. The war has embroiled Turkey in renewed conflict with its own Kurds. Lebanon and Jordan hang by threads to a semblance of order. Israel faces extremists just a few miles from the Syrian territory it occupies on the Golan Heights.

Attention in the press is focused on the Pentagon’s failed efforts over the past year to train and equip viable “moderate” forces to fight against the Islamic State in Syria. Few Syrians sign up. They prefer to fight Assad. The vetting process is long and arduous. Of the few who have gone back to Syria, most have ended up dead, captured or intimidated into turning over equipment and weapons to extremists. The rebalancing of the military equation that John Kerry had rightly recognized as necessary to altering the outcome in a direction the US would find agreeable is simply not occurring.

Enter the Russians. Moscow’s deployment of fighting forces, including attack aircraft, to Latakia would not be necessary if the Assad regime were doing well. Moscow’s immediate military goal is to block the advance of opposition forces towards western Syria, where both the heartland of the Alawite population and Russia’s naval base lie. Its bigger purpose is to protect the regime and foil America’s intention of replacing it with something resembling a democracy. Moscow won’t distinguish in its targets between extremists and moderates but will seek to rebalance the military equation in a direction opposite to what Kerry had in mind.

The advancing opposition forces in the center of the country are mostly Sunni extremists, not moderates. Extremists have agreed to a population exchange with Hizbollah that will clear Sunnis from near the strategically important border with Lebanon and Shia from extremist-held areas farther north. Population exchange aids cantonalization: Syria will soon be a patchwork of areas of control: the regime in Damascus and the west, Kurds along much of the northern border with Turkey, relatively moderate opposition in the south and some Damascus suburbs, assorted Islamist extremists in the center and the Islamic State in the center east. Enclaves will be overrun or traded. Confrontation lines will congeal. Stalemate will ensue.

None of this is good news for either Syrians or Americans. But it is not the worst news.

The viability of the patches will depend on two factors: the strength of the military forces that control them and how effectively they are governed. The regime has been protecting and governing the areas it controls well enough that they have attracted a significant inflow of people, including many whose sympathies are with the opposition. The Islamic State governs brutally in the territory it controls, but has lost some in the north to Kurdish forces, who have set up representative governing structures that include Arabs and appear to be functioning relatively well, their lives made easier by the de facto truce between the Kurds and the Assad regime.

The relative moderates have arguably been less effective than the regime, the Islamic State and the Kurds in governing the areas they control. This is important. The war can be lost on the battlefield. But it has to be won in city hall. The local councils that have formed more or less spontaneously in many “liberated” areas are not doing well. Strapped for cash and untended by the opposition Syrian Interim Government, in many areas they are unable to deliver much except political squabbling among themselves. While unquestionably better than nothing, they lack both legitimacy and technical capabilities as well as connections to a broader political framework. Western aid to local councils has sometimes done more harm than good.

The US military effort in Syria is visibly in tatters. But it won’t matter much if the less visible civilian effort conducted in areas controlled by relative moderates doesn’t improve  dramatically.

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