Tag: Lebanon
The world according to CFR
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) survey of prevention priorities for 2014 is out today. Crowdsourced, it is pretty much the definition of elite conventional wisdom. Pundits of all stripes contribute.
The top tier includes contingencies with high impact and moderate likelihood (intensification of the Syrian civil war, a cyberattack on critical US infrastructure, attacks on the Iranian nuclear program or evidence of nuclear weapons intent, a mass casualty terrorist attack on the US or an ally, or a severe North Korean crisis) as well as those with moderate impact and high likelihood (in a word “instability” in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Iraq or Jordan). None merited the designation high impact and high likelihood, though many of us might have suggested Syria, Iraq and Pakistan for that category. Read more
Peace picks, November 11-15
The Federal government is closed Monday for Veterans Day but the rest of the week has lots of peace and war events. The Middle East Institute Conference (last item) is not to be missed:
1. How to Turn Russia Against Assad
Tuesday, November 12th, 2013
6:00pm
Rome Building, Room 806
1619 Massachusetts Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20037
Samuel Charap
Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, IISS
Jeremy Shapiro
Visiting Fellow in the Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution
Chair: Dana Allin
Editor of Survival and Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs, IISS
A light reception will follow
No RSVP Required
For More Information, Contact SAISEES@jhu.edu or events-washington@iiss.org
Samuel Charap is the Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies based in the IISS–US in Washington, DC. Prior to joining the Institute, Samuel was a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow at the US Department of State, serving as Senior Advisor to the Acting Undersecretary for Arms Control and International Security and on the Secretary’s Policy Planning Staff.
Jeremy Shapiro is a visiting fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. Prior to re-joining Brookings, he was a member of the U.S. State Department’s policy planning staff, where he advised the secretary of state on U.S. policy in North Africa and the Levant. He was also the senior advisor to Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Philip Gordon, providing strategic guidance on a wide variety of U.S.-European foreign policy issues. Read more
Breaking up is hard to do
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace yesterday afternoon focused on the changing regional and international atmosphere for the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.* Frederic Wehrey, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment and moderator of the event, opened the discussion asking what the current disagreements with the GCC, particularly Saudi Arabia, mean for the future of US-Gulf relationships?
Abdullah al-Shayji, Professor at Kuwait University, sees the widening trust deficit between the US and the GCC as alarming. This is not the first time that the GCC and US have had disagreements, but Shayji sees something amiss in the relationship. The US hesitation about involvement in Syria, and its overture with Iran, make the GCC question whether it can rely on the US.
The GCC also sees Washington as dysfunctional and fatigued based on sequestration and the government shutdown. The relationship is at a tipping point but not at a critical state yet. The GCC sees itself as shut out from US foreign policy regarding the region and wants a more nuanced and holistic approach. Diverging trust can ultimately be detrimental to the US-GCC relationship. The US should be more receptive and open-minded toward its junior GCC partner.
Professor at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in Qatar Mehran Kamrava focused his comments on Qatar and its changing foreign policy. Before 2010, Qatar wanted to come out of the Saudi shadow. This was mainly a policy of survival, but Doha also made attempts to project power and influence in the region. Qatar had four “ingredients” for its pre-2010 foreign policy: Read more
The gulf with the Gulf
Yesterday was Gulf day. I spent part of the morning reading Christopher Davidson, who thinks the Gulf monarchies are headed for collapse due to internal challenges, their need for Western support, Iran’s growing power and their own disunity. Then I turned to Greg Gause, who attributes their resilience to the oil-greased coalitions and external networks they have created to support their rule. He predicts their survival.
At lunch I ambled across the way to CSIS’s new mansion to hear Abdullah al Shayji, chair of political science at Kuwait University and unofficial Gulf spokeperson, who was much exorcised over America’s response to Iran’s “charm offensive,” which he said could not have come at a worse time. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was already at odds with the US. The Gulf was not warned or consulted about the phone call between Iranian President Rouhani and President Obama. Saudi Arabia’s refusal to occupy the UN Security Council seat it fought hard to get was a signal of displeasure. The divergences between the GCC and the US range across the Middle East: Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Iraq and Palestine, in addition to Iran.
On top of this, US oil and gas production is increasing. China is now a bigger oil importer than the US and gets a lot more of its supplies from the Gulf. Washington is increasingly seen as dysfunctional because of its partisan bickering. Its budget problems seem insoluble. American credibility is declining. The Gulf views the US as unreliable. Read more
Peace picks, October 14-18
Today is officially a holiday and the government is still “shut down,” but there are good war and peace events this week in DC:
1. U.S. Policy in the Arab: World Perspectives from Civil Society
In collaboration with the Arab NGO Network for Development (ANND)
Monday, October 14, 2013 – 11:15am – 12:45pm
New America Foundation
The United States has long shaped developments in the Arab world, but the 2011 popular uprisings and subsequent period of unrest have diminished U.S. influence and credibility in the region. More recently, Washington’s reluctance to militarily intervene in Syria and passive reaction to political changes in Egypt have further damaged its image in the eyes of Arab populations. While media coverage of regional events focuses on governments and street protests, the voices of civil society organizations are often marginalized or unheard.
On October 14, the New America Foundation’s Middle East Task Force and the Arab NGO Network for Development will host a distinguished panel of researchers, academics, and activists from Arab civil society organizations. The panelists will present civil society priorities and perspectives on U.S. policies in the region, and will specifically debate whether these policies advance popular aspirations for democracy and sustainable development.
PARTICIPANTS
Kinda Mohamadieh
Policy Advisor, Arab NGO Network for Development (ANND).
Mahinour El-Badrawi
Researcher, Egyptian Center for Economic and Social Rights (ECESR)
Mohamad Loutfy
Campaign Coordinator, The Campaign on World Bank Safeguards and Disability
Senior Advisor, The Lebanese Physical Handicapped Union (LPHU)
Rana Khalaf
Activist, Syrian League for Citizenship
Moderator:
Research Associate, Middle East Task Force, New America Foundation
RSVP: http://www.newamerica.net/events/2013/us_policy_in_the_arab_world Read more
Palestinians displaced, again
In 1948, approximately 90,000 Palestinians sought refuge in Syria during the Arab-Israeli War. Sixty-three years later, in 2011, the Palestinians who had created new lives in Syria became refugees yet again, but this time in the wake of the Syrian revolution. On Monday, Georgetown University hosted a discussion titled “Displaced Again: Palestinian Refugees from Syria.”
Samar El Yassir, the Lebanon Country Director for American Near East Refugee Aid (ANERA), talked about the bleak situation Palestinian refugees face in Lebanon. In September 2012, there were only 10,000 Palestinian refugees in the country. But just over a year later that number has increased to about 92,650, according to UNRWA records, and it is estimated to reach 180,000 refugees by the end of 2013. In addition to the Palestinians, there are about 900,000 more refugees in Lebanon who have sought refuge from the oppressive Assad regime. The one million refugees in the country, whose numbers are equivalent to about a third of the population, live in cramped conditions awash with crime and corruption.
The number one concern for refugees in Lebanon is shelter. Refugees either live with host families, rent shelters for between 150 to 300 Lebanese pounds, or squat in partially built structures. Recently, it has become increasingly hard for refugees to pay rent since the Syrian pound has lost much of its value and is worth about three times less than the Lebanese pound. For those who have found jobs, the average salary is about 100 to 300 pounds per month, and this barely covers the price of rent. About 25 percent of all refugee shelters are inadequate, which means they have little or no access to water, have primitive bathrooms, have open vents or doors, and have no kitchen. The incessant struggle with living conditions, especially in the midst of the winter months, only compounds the economic woes that Palestinian refugees face in Lebanon.
Among working age Palestinian refugees, there is an astonishing 90 percent unemployment. This is largely due to the fact that Lebanese law prevents them from working in many sectors of the country’s workforce. As a result, the job market is very competitive, and most families cannot even afford three meals a day. These dire conditions have led many families to give in to child labor in order to maximize their income, which takes children away from their studies. Even children who do not have jobs often are not in school for two main reasons—the curriculum is often taught in French, not Arabic, and there is no space in Lebanon’s classrooms. As El Yassir said, “The best way to ‘normalize’ life is to put children in school.” These educational hardships make it difficult to facilitate change in the region and improve the lives of refugees displaced from Syria.
Noura Erakat, a human rights attorney and activist, gave a brief history on Palestinian refugees in the region and talked about their lack of support and basic rights. In 1948, the Syrian government took great pride in harboring Palestinians and supporting their cause. Once inside Syria, they were allowed to start new lives and essentially lived as equals to the native Syrians. But a few months into the 2011 Syrian revolution, the Assad regime began to target Palestinian refugees, which initiated their massive influx into Lebanon and Jordan.
It would make sense that the Palestinian refugees who are displaced by the uprising in Syria would fall under the United Nations High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR). But instead they remain under the authority of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). This means that the Palestinian refugees’ futures depend on the work of a largely underfunded United Nations agency that already has its hands full in the Levant. They continue to suffer from lack of diplomatic and legal support as they live in limbo in the 12 Palestinian refugee camps that are scattered across Lebanon.
The future for Palestinian refugees in Lebanon remains bleak. It is imperative that the international community help these oppressed people rebuild their lives, lest we have a lost generation of youth on our hands. Such civil society organizations as ANERA play an important role in improving these refugees’ lives by setting up assistance programs that provide food, shelter, medication, clothes, education, and counseling. But with a million more refugees estimated to flee from the violence in Syria over the next year, it will be essential to improve aid programs in the Levant in order to provide for this vulnerable group.