peacefare.net

Let your people go!

Tonight is the Jewish festival of Passover, when we celebrate liberation.  Last year, I called this season the Passover of Arab liberation, but noted the difficulties Syria was facing.

This year we seem to be somewhere in the middle of the ten plagues, with Bashar al Assad not even beginning to think about letting his people go (and in fact inflicting the plagues, which is not something pharaoh did).  The mutual ceasefire deadline is set for April 12, provided Damascus pulls back from populated areas and ceases artillery fire on April 10.  In the meanwhile, Bashar seems to have intensified the military attacks in an effort to do as much deadly damage as possible to his opposition.  While I hope Kofi Annan’s effort is successful, you’d have to be Moses-like in inspiration to bet on it.

We should nevertheless consider the possibilities.  If by some fluke the Syrian army really does withdraw from some places, I hope the revolution will tuck away its guns and somehow demonstrate its overwhelming superiority in numbers.  It is particularly important that April 12/13 see a massive demonstration of opposition in Damascus and Aleppo, even if that means everyone just staying home in a general strike.  It will also be vital that the UN deploy observers quickly, and in far greater numbers than the couple of hundred currently contemplated.

It seems far more likely that Bashar will not  withdraw or cease fire.  What then?  There is really no sign of international will to intervene.  Despite ample documentation of artillery attacks on civilian targets as well as helicopter operations, neither the Turks nor the Arab League are preparing serious military action to enforce a no-fly zone or create humanitarian corridors or safe zones.  The Syrian security forces are busy mining the borders so that civilians can’t escape.  While it seems unlikely that Bashar can prevail 100%, he is well on his way to reducing the opposition to a low-intensity insurgency, with the bulk of the population sullenly resenting but accepting restoration of the dictatorship.  At least for a while, it is likely to be significantly more draconian than before the rebellion started.

This is a bad outcome, but I am afraid not the worst.  If the fighting continues to escalate and Bashar still survives, the consequences could be catastrophic for the region.  The violence might then overflow Syria’s borders and pose serious problems for Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan and maybe even Turkey. If Bashar manages to stay in place, it is vital that the Friends of Syria, that unwieldy conglomeration of more than 80 countries, maintain and tighten its efforts, in particular the sanctions and diplomatic isolation.  We see in Burma how strategic patience can win the day.

Many of my friends and colleagues are appalled that nothing more is being done.  I can’t describe myself as comfortable with this state of affairs.  But it is important to recognize that there are other priorities on earth.  The Administration’s first concern has to be Iran.  There is no way to get a negotiated solution to its nuclear challenge, or prevent the Israelis from using military means, unless the United States maintains a credible military threat.  Entering a war with an uncertain outcome in Syria would not be a smart prelude to dealing with Iran.  American resources, though large, are not infinite–we wouldn’t want to run out of cruise missiles or suffer serious aircraft losses in a second priority fight.

There is also a diplomatic factor.  The best way to mount a credible threat against Iran is with UN Security Council backing.  What are the odds of the Russians conceding that if we go to war with Syria without their cooperation?  The odds may not be good in any event, but we need at least a small chance for success.

So I am afraid our Syrian heroes will need to continue their efforts.  I still prefer they be nonviolent ones.  Nothing that has happened in the last few weeks of violent attacks convinces me that the Free Syria Army will shorten the reign of Bashar al Assad by as much as a single day.  It is far more likely that their attacks will frighten large numbers of people who might otherwise have joined nonviolent protests.

I’ll pray for the Syrians at Seder tonight, as I trust many Jews around the world will do.  Not because I think praying will do the Syrians any good, but because the parallel between today’s Syrians and our own liberation narrative should inform our sensibilities.  The people of Syria are seeking the freedom that Tunisians, Egyptians, Libyans and Yemenis have all started to enjoy, even if they are still at the beginning of their journeys through the wilderness.  I hope the Syrians catch up soon.

The most frequent injunction in the Old Testament is to treat a stranger like ourselves:

…you shall love him as yourself, for you were strangers in the land of Egypt… {Leviticus 19:33-34}

Bashar:  let your people go!

PS:  I missed this Monday, but you shouldn’t: