Tag: Lebanon
Nationalism is rising, but sectarianism won’t fade quickly
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW) June 9 organized a discussion on issues of nationalism and sectarianism in the Middle East. The Sectarianism, Proxies & De-sectarianization project (SEPAD) co-organized; its director Simon Mabon joined the panel as an expert on Saudi Arabia. Together with two experts on Lebanon and Iraq, respectively, he assessed the state of sectarianism and nationalist projects in these three countries. Iraq and Lebanon are experiencing grassroots protest movements to overcome sectarianism while Saudi Arabia is seeing a major top-down drive through the Vision 2030 project spearheaded by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). Should these be understood as attempts to let national identity overcome sectarianism in politics? If so, can we expect them to be successful? The panel agreed that these issues are unlikely to be solved quickly or by MbS’s preferred economic means, but a clear shift in political thinking is occurring in the younger generations.
The speakers were:
Geneive Abdo
Visiting Fellow
AGSIW
Simon Mabon
Chair in International Politics
Lancaster University
Director
Richardson Institute
Director
SEPAD
Maha Yahya
Director
Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
Kristin Smith Diwan (moderator)
Senior Resident Scholar
AGSIW
Two protest movements and one grand vision
As Simon Mabon explained, SEPAD analyzes the events in the modern Middle East and tests the theory that secularist national identities are replacing sectarian political identities. The focus for his talk lay on the three countries Lebanon, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. As Abdo and Yahya indicated, Lebanon and Iraq are experiencing major protest movements that attack the corruption, lack of accountability, and cronyism in their countries. Both have democratic systems that reserve political positions and parliamentary representation to specific sectarian groups. In practice, as Yahya said, this “turned the relationship between individuals and their state into one that is mediated by sectarian community.” The political system has become a way to divide the cake among power brokers, who in Lebanon are referred to as ‘mafia’.
The protest movements in both of these countries self-identify as secular. As Abdo underlined, Iraqi protesters are overwhelmingly Shia and use Shia religious symbolism (such as references to the martyrdom of Shia Imam Hussein) in their demonstrations. Moreover, the Shia clergy in Iraq openly supports and collaborates with the protest movement. In this younger generation there is a clear division between personal religious identity and political identity. It is in the latter that desectarianization has occurred. Furthermore, the protesters emphasize that their agenda is issue-based.
Maha Yahya noted that Lebanon differs. The current protests go beyond clear-cut issues (such as the Whatsapp-tax that triggered the current protest movement) and aim at a complete overhaul of the sectarian political system. The individual controversies and issues that abound in Lebanese politics are seen as symptoms of a broken regime.
The situation in Saudi Arabia might appear unrelated. The Arab Spring saw some demonstrations in the Shia East of the country, but nothing on the scale of the other two countries discussed here. MBS is seeking to transform and modernize his country under his ambitious ‘Vision 2030’ project. Funded by billions of petrodollars, MBS wants to wean Saudi Arabia off its reliance on oil and modernize its economy. His vision includes relaxation of the strict religious laws for economic and political purposes. MBS hopes to transform Saudi citizenship to a secularist, civic nationalism in which both Sunni Wahhabi and Shia groups participate. According to Mabon, the ambitious pace and huge investments that go along with this show that MBS believes he has a ‘magic switch’ that can achieve this transformation of identities.
Sectarianism won’t go away easily
The panel agreed it would be naïve to think that deep-seated sectarian social and political systems will go away quickly. Vision 2030 aims to remove sectarian divisions by offering everyone a seat at the economic table, and therefore a stake in the state. The systems of marginalization and othering cannot be undone with a ‘magic switch’ and some ‘bread and games’, and centuries of repression cannot so easily be erased. Investing hundreds of millions into shopping malls in Shia areas could be seen as tokenism and introduces new issues of gentrification and marginalization along class lines. Nonetheless, a less cynical view could see these as the first steps towards change according to Mabon.
In Lebanon and Iraq, a major obstacle is the lack of unity within the protest movements. Groups and proto-parties are forming, aiming for Iraqi elections planned for October and Lebanese parliamentary elections to come in 2022. However, the grassroots movements have not yet coalesced into clear protest parties. Yahya and Abdo agreed that in both Lebanon and Iraq the political system discourages new parties, and the existing political establishment is unlikely to disappear in one electoral cycle. Yahya is cautiously optimistic in the medium term about the grassroots developments in Lebanon. Abdo indicated that Iraqi proto-parties are also emerging and receiving donations. However, there is a serious debate on whether the protesters should boycott the elections or try to get as many seats as possible. Iraq’s 2018 elections had an official turnout of 44%, although the real number is estimated to have been as low as 20%, meaning that turnout is already a critical issue for the established elite’s legitimacy. Moderator Diwan pointed out that boycotts in the region (such as in Bahrain or Kuwait) haven’t generally been a successful way to challenge entrenched elites.
Watch the recording of the event here:
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The future of the “French initiative” in Lebanon
The Middle East Institute (MEI) May 25 and 26 hosted the first two days of their inaugural Lebanon Policy Conference. In collaboration with the American Task Force on Lebanon and LIFE, this two-part series looks to tackle the urgency and potential paths for Lebanon’s current political, financial, and humanitarian crises. On Wednesday May 26, MEI hosted three events: The Future of US Policy Toward Lebanon: A Conversation with Senator Tim Kaine and Ambassador David Hale, Breaking the Lebanese Political Logjam, and Lebanon Amid Evolving Regional and International Dynamics. On Thursday May 27, MEI hosted two events: The Future of the “French Initiative”: A Conversation with Ambassador Pierre Duquesne, and The Final Countdown: How to Manage Lebanon’s Transformational Economic Crisis and Avert Total Collapse.
What is the future of the “French initiative” and how has the role of French and European diplomacy evolved in recent months? Ambassador Pierre Duquesne’s keynote speech for The Future of the “French Initiative” emphasized the need for international collaboration and pressure in continuing to promote the French initiative towards political reform in Lebanon. The speakers were:
Ambassador Pierre Duquesne
Ambassador in charge of Coordinating International Support to Lebanon, French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs
Charbel Abou Charaf (Moderator)
Partner, White & Castle LLP; Member, LIFE Advocate
LIFE Advocate Program:
Charaf explained that LIFE Advocates was created with regards to the unprecedented existential crisis currently taking place in Lebanon. The program aims to channel LIFE’s significant collective expert resources and goodwill to influence economic policymaking in Lebanon and support economic and financial development.
Background on the French initiative in Lebanon
Duquesne began his keynote speech discussing the primary initiatives launched by France and President Macron following the August 4, 2020 port explosion. While Macron advocated a French initiative to kick-start discussions to form a government, there has been no movement on that front. At present, the French initiative has shifted from promoting the formation of a new government at any cost to promoting a government dedicated to reforms. However, each roadmap released by Macron has been postponed due to the Lebanese political class.
Duquesne cited four reasons why the French initiative is still relevant:
- to increase confidence within the Lebanese polity in its ability to create and sustain a functioning government;
- to push the political class to act by supporting public opinion, suggesting action in the short term, and pushing the international community to participate;
- to sustain French efforts that have taken place throughout Macron’s four years in office;
- to promote the implementation of an IMF program to push reforms forward and treat the current banking crisis.
In his statement, Duquesne emphasized the relevance of Lebanese development, drawing attention to the need for methods and reforms to remain current and applicable. The French initiative’s fight against corruption was indispensable, but it would not be sufficient to establish a new and stable governing body.
Hezbollah as a key obstacle
The Lebanese people and government, according to Duquesne, have always promoted the dissociation of Lebanon from regional crises. Duquesne argued that if the country does not engage in dynamic reform then it may be the object of confrontation by regional actors. He claimed dissociation is essential for reforms and reforms can promote dissociation. In his discussion of Hezbollah, he emphasized the need to distinguish between the military and political wings of Hezbollah, clarifying the condemned nature of the militant wing while remembering the party’s political power. It is impossible to ignore Hezbollah, and it is essential to interact politically with the group. This is not to promote support for the organization, however. As Senator Tim Kaine explained in his statements on the future of US foreign policy towards Lebanon, Duquesne reiterated the need for the international community to support the Lebanese Armed Forces.
Concluding thoughts:
Duquesne concluded his statement with a call to action towards the international community. He reminded viewers that France granted 86 million euros last year and 60 million euros this year towards reconstruction and relief efforts. However, he also warned of indifference, emphasizing the risk of fatigue that comes from extended political unrest without significant change. However, in a conclusion to his talk, Duquesne quoted President Macron stating “Je ne vous laisserai pas” (I will not abandon you), a statement by Macron to the Lebanese people. Duquesne reminded participants and viewers that the international community is needed in handling and finding solutions to the current crises facing Lebanon.
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Peace Picks | May 31 – June 4, 2021
Peace Picks | May 31- June 4, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- MEI Lebanon Policy Conference – Addressing the Lebanese Social and Humanitarian Crises | June 1, 2021 | 9:45 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Lebanon’s social and humanitarian crises have sharply accelerated over the past two years. From the onset of Covid-19 to the Beirut port explosion and the unfolding financial and socio-economic collapse, Lebanese citizens as well as Syrian and Palestinian refugee communities are witnessing a rapid slide into poverty and despair. Recent developments threaten to fuel civil unrest, xenophobia, and extremism. In the meantime, international partners including donor countries, multilateral institutions, and non-governmental organizations have rallied to help Lebanon avert a total and irreversible humanitarian disaster with wide-ranging repercussions.
How have international partners and the Lebanese diaspora circumvented the absence of a strong and capable central government to deliver much-needed support to citizens and refugees alike? What are some of the different potential scenarios for Lebanon on the social and humanitarian fronts in the months ahead? What must be done in the short and long term to prevent the country from spiraling further downward?
Speakers:
Congressman Darin LaHood (Opening Remarks)
U.S. House of Representatives, Illinois’s 18th District
Paul Salem (Opening Remarks)
President, Middle East Institute
Alex Mahoney
Acting Office Director for the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe, Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance, USAID
Nadine Massoud-Bernheim
Chief Executive Officer, LIFE
Haneen Sayed
Lead Social Protection and Jobs Specialist, MENA Region, World Bank
Mona Yacoubain (Moderator)
Senior Advisor to the Vice President of Middle East and North Africa, United States Institute of Peace
- Equality for Some: Challenges to Women’s Rights in Egypt | June 1, 2021 | 10:30 AM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Despite hard-won gains in rights and freedoms carved out over the past century, Egyptian women are seeing challenges to their rights and duties as citizens. During a period of rapidly evolving social and environmental dynamics, women are struggling to have their own development keep up with the shifting landscape in both personal and professional life.
There also appears to be an odd dichotomy; despite official attempts to promote gender equality, with more women in cabinet and on boards than ever before, long-held patriarchal attitudes mean some positions are still firmly off-limits to women. Women are also facing myriad challenges to their personal lives, with the much-debated draft Personal Status Law threatening to set women’s rights back decades. What are the socioeconomic consequences of these issues?
Speakers:
Hoda El-Sadda
Professor of English and Comparative Literature, Cairo University
Mozn Hassan
Founder and Executive Director, Nazra for Feminist Studies
Mirette F. Mabrouk (Moderator)
Senior Fellow and Director, Egypt Program, MEI
Additional Speaker TBA
- Small Satellite Proliferation, Advanced Technologies, and Their Security Implications | June 1, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | Foreign Policy Research Institute | Register Here
The uncontrolled re-entry of China’s rocket, which launched the core module of China’s space station, has raised concern about the absence of norms governing space. To provide an important perspective, FPRI has assembled a panel of experts to discuss the risks and opportunities of dual-use technologies. How do we ensure a space environment that is safe and sustainable as the number and capabilities of objects in space increase? Can new technologies help mitigate the risks of international conflict over space?
Speakers:
Mariel Borowitz
Associate Professor, Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology
Everett Carl Dolman
Professor of Comparative Military Studies, U.S. Air Force Air Command and Staff College
Glenn Lightsey
Professor at the Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
Lawrence Rubin
Associate Professor at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology and a Templeton Fellow in the National Security Program at FPRI
- Winning the Peace: Armed Groups & Security Sector Challenges | June, 3, 2021 | 8:00 AM EST | Register Here
Armed non-state actors have exploited state fragility with devastating impact and have experienced a remarkable ascension in recent years, powerfully competing with conventional military forces, sometimes delivering governance to local populations, courting state sponsors and working with them across borders. In the wider Middle East, their rise and impact has been pronounced. Developing effective internal and external policy responses to such hybrid security environments, rife with contestations over power, resources, and geopolitical dynamics has been a challenge. Policymakers have grappled with integrating some of the armed groups into formal governing structures, while countering others and with devising policy responses to their rule.
To explore these issues, Crisis Response Council and the Brookings Institution’s Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors are delighted to welcome you to a panel discussion that examines the future of armed groups in the Middle East and policy options for responding to them. It looks at whether armed groups should be integrated into formal governing structures, whether armed movements can govern, and which armed groups should be accepted, and which should be sidelined; it examines how the international community, particularly the U.S. and Europe, should address security crises and looks at potential policies for conflict mitigation and resolution at the local and regional level.
Speakers:
Vanda Felbab-Brown
Brookings Institution
Frederic Wehrey
Carnegie Endowmen
Benedetta Berti
NATO
Yaniv Voller
University of Kent; Stanford University
Ranj Alaaldin
Brookings Institution
- MEI Lebanon Policy Conference – Coordinating International Support for Lebanon: A Conversation with Dr. Najat Rochdi of UNSCHOL | June 3, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute is thrilled to host Dr. Najat Rochdi for a keynote conversation as part of MEI’s inaugural Lebanon policy conference. Dr. Rochdi is the United Nations deputy special coordinator and resident and humanitarian coordinator in Lebanon. She brings over 20 years of experience in development and humanitarian assistance and international coordination in conflict and post-conflict areas.
How is international aid coordination unfolding in Lebanon? Which mechanisms are already in place? What are they building towards? What challenges and obstacles lie ahead? How will the role and involvement of the United Nations in Lebanon develop in the months ahead?
Speakers:
Dr. Najat Rochdi
Deputy Special Coordinator, Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator, United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon (UNSCOL)
Joyce Karam (Moderator)
Senior Washington Correspondent, The National
- Setting the Agenda for a Transatlantic Digital Alliance | June 3, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | German Marshall Fund | Register Here
Tech issues – from digital taxation and the platform economy to artificial intelligence and the protection of critical technology – are central to the transatlantic relationship. European Commission President von der Leyen identified technology as one of four pillars of her “US-EU agenda for global change,” and called for a new “Trade and Technology Council” to strengthen transatlantic collaboration. As U.S. President Biden prepares to visit Brussels, experienced policymakers will explore the opportunities, challenges, and objectives of EU-US engagement on technology, and how these issues will affect the transatlantic relationship into the future.
Speakers:
Tom Wheeler
Former Chairman of the FCC
Luis Viegas Cardoso
Senior Expert of Digital, Technology and Innovation, I.D.E.A. Advisory Service, European Commission
Karen Kornbluh
Senior Fellow and Director, GMF Digital
Mark Scott (Moderator)
Chief Technology Correspondent, Politico
- International Order and its Discontents: Russia, Iran, and the Struggles for Recognition | June 3, 2021 | 12:00 PM EST | Belfer Center | Register Here
Russia’s relationship with Iran illustrates how normative expectations, power aspirations, and shared experiences of denigration can regulate, transform, and structure relations over time. Despite the areas of tension and the mistrust endemic to the relationship, Russia and Iran have exhibited synergies in their approaches to international order as shared experiences of discontent have further galvanized these countries to coalesce around the contestation of the so-called “Western”-led international order.
This seminar will examine the nature of the Russia-Iran relationship, drawing on research of Moscow and Tehran’s domestic foreign policy debates, archival documents, and elite interviews. It offers a framework that accounts for multiple expressions of power and the norms, ideas, values, and solidaristic bonds inherent in the evolution of the Russia-Iran relationship. The broader implications of this case illustrate how power inequalities, and, by extension, the unequal distribution of legitimacy and authority can form a basis of solidarity between states and invite contestation over the rights, rules, and institutions of international society.
Speakers:
Nicole Grajewski
Research Fellow, International Security Program
- Fast Reactors, the Versatile Test Reactor, and Nuclear Safety and Nonproliferation | June 3, 2021 | 4:30 PM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
The discussion will focus on the role of advanced nuclear energy systems for the purpose of reducing carbon from fossil fuels and supporting global clean energy growth, and the essential role of the Versatile Test Reactor in supporting innovation in nuclear energy. It will address issues related to safety and security by design, how the VTR can enhance those features in the next generation of nuclear technologies, and how advanced reactor systems can incorporate enhanced safety and safeguard features.
As the United States accelerates its engagement on advanced nuclear research and development, the US Department of Energy and other federal bodies are adapting policies and procedures to assure that these new technologies are safe and secure and are deployed in a way that supports both climate and national security goals. In this moderated discussion, nuclear energy policy and technology experts will share their insights on pathways to continued innovation, international security, and the continued value of the nuclear power sector.
Speakers:
Ambassador Thomas Graham, Jr.
Chairman of the Board of Directors, Lightbridge Corporation
Ambassador (ret.) Laura Holgate
Vice President, Materials Risk Management, Nuclear Threat Initiative
Jackie Kempfer
Director of Government Affairs, OKLO, Inc; Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council Global Energy Center
Kenneth Luongo
President, Partnership for Global Security
Dr. Kemal Pasamehmetoglu
Executive Director for the Versatile Test Reactor, Idaho National Laboratory
Dr. Jennifer Gordon (Moderator)
Managing Editor and Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council Global Energy Center
- NATO 2030: A Keynote Address by Jens Stoltenberg | June 4, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Brookings Institution | Register Here
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), together with the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and The Brookings Institution, have the pleasure to invite you to a special virtual conversation.
As allied leaders prepare for the NATO Summit in Brussels on June 14, 2021, the transatlantic alliance faces a host of challenges that include Russia’s aggressive actions, the threat of terrorism and cyberattacks, disruptive technologies, the security impact of climate change, and the rise of China. At the same time, the Biden administration offers the opportunity for Europe and North America to work more closely together than they have for many years. The Secretary General will outline his vision in a keynote address followed by a discussion of the NATO 2030 agenda.
Speakers:
John R. Allen
President, The Brookings Institution
Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook
Designated Director and CEO, Germain Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Jens Stolenberg
Secretary General, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
- MEI Lebanon Policy Conference – Envisioning Lebanon’s Path to Sustainable and Equitable Growth: A Conversation with Ferid Belhaj | June 4, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute is thrilled to host Ferid Belhaj for a keynote conversation as part of MEI’s inaugural Lebanon policy conference. Mr. Belhaj is the World Bank Group’s Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa. From 2012 to 2017, he was World Bank Director for the Middle East, in charge of its work programs in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Iran, based in Beirut, Lebanon.
How can Lebanon develop and implement a new economic model to promote sustainable and equitable growth? How will the role and involvement of the World Bank in Lebanon evolve in the months ahead?
Speakers:
Ferid Belhaj
Vice President, Middle East and North Africa Region, The World Bank
Ronnie W. Hammad (Moderator)
Adviser, Office of the Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions, The World Bank
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Peace Picks | May 24-28, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Africa Day at the Atlantic Council: A vision for the African Century | May 25, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
In celebration of Africa Day, which marks the founding of the African Union, and to introduce the new Africa Center team and vision under Director Ambassador Rama Yade, the Atlantic Council is launching its African Conversations Series. The series aims to shine a light on high-profile US officials’ connections to the continent and engagement with Africa policy.
High-profile US officials speak to US-Africa policy under the Biden administration, spotlighting Africa’s strategic importance and dynamic outlook.
Speakers:
The Hon. Dana L. Banks
Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Africa, National Security Council
James L. Jones, Jr.
Executive Chairman Emeritus, Atlantic Council
H.E. Hilda Suka-Mafudze
Ambassador to the United States, African Union
The Hon. Linda Thomas-Greenfield
Representative to the United Nations, US Department of State
Frederick Kempe
President and CEO, Atlantic Council
Rama Yade (moderator)
Africa Center Director, Atlantic Council
2. Reshore, Reroute, Rebalance: A U.S. Strategy for Clean Energy Supply Chains| May 25, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | CSIS | Register Here
This event is a presentation and discussion of the new CSIS report Reshore, Reroute, Rebalance: A U.S. Strategy for Clean Energy Supply Chains. Asrenewable energy technologies mature and get deployed at scale, there is a greater need to think strategically about this system. Reshore, Reroute, Rebalance argues that the United States can apply some of the mental models, tools, and institutions used for conventional energy sources to think about supply chains in clean energy—and, in doing so, grow its economy and boost its national security.
Speakers:
Nikos Tsafos (Introduction)
Interim Director and Senior Fellow, Energy Security and Climate Change Program, CSIS
Sarah Ladislaw
Senior Associate (Non-resident), Energy Security and Climate Change Program, CSIS
Laszlo Varro
Chief Economist, International Energy Agency
3. In Search of Peace for Afghanistan: Historical Perspectives | May 26, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Last month’s announcement that all U.S and international troops will leave Afghanistan before September 11, 2021 has sparked intense debate over the country’s future after over four decades of near-continuous conflict. Deteriorating security conditions, uncertainty over the level of international engagement moving forward and political instability pose great risks to the fragile peace process and the prospects for a sustainable political settlement. Many analysts have compared the current moment to the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, an alarming parallel given the years of civil war and Taliban rule that followed.
These issues are at the heart of a recently published book by the Kakar History Foundation and Heart of Asia Society titled In Search of Peace for Afghanistan: Historical Letters of President Najibullah and Dr. M. Hassan Kakar — A Collection of Essays. This essay collection considers the correspondence between the former Afghan president and one of the country’s leading scholars regarding Afghanistan’s post-Soviet future and the lessons that can be drawn as the country navigates the U.S. troop withdrawal. Several of the contributing authors to this book will reflect on Afghan politics and the country’s relationship with the international community as U.S. troops withdraw.
Speakers:
Amb. Lakhdar Brahimi (Keynote)
Former U.N. Special Envoy to Afghanistan and Syria; former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Algeria
Amb. Richard Olson (Introduction)
Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace; former U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan
Belquis Ahmadi
Senior Program Officer, U.S. Institute of Peace
Robert Crews
Professor of History, Stanford University
Kawun Kakar
Executive Director, Kakar History Foundation
Amb. Janan Mosazai
Former Ambassador of Afghanistan to Pakistan and China; Co-Founder and Vice President, Heart of Asia Society
Omar Sharifi
Country Director, American Institute of Afghanistan Studies
Omar Sadr
Assistant Professor of Political Science, American University of Afghanistan
Dipali Mukhopadhyay (Moderator)
Senior Expert, U.S. Institute of Peace
4. Re-balancing U.S. Security Engagement with Arab States | May 26, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
The Biden administration’s desire to reduce the U.S. presence in the Middle East is just the latest attempt by an American president to pull out of the region, and yet the legacy of U.S. entrenchment in the Middle East continues to draw it in. To what extent has the heavily militarized nature of U.S. engagement with Arab states met its goals for regional peace and self-reliance? Can the United States draw down its military presence, reduce security assistance, and be more selective about arms sales without sacrificing critical interests and American jobs? What would less securitized U.S. policies mean for competition with China and Russia in the region?
Speakers:
Chris Murphy (Keynote)
Senator for Connecticut, US Senate; Member, Foreign Relations Committee; Chairman, Subcommittee on Near East, South Asia, Central Asia and Counterterrorism
Frederic Wehrey
Senior Fellow, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Michele Dunne
Director and Senior Fellow, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Kim Ghattas
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
David Schenker
Senior Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Jalel Harchaoui
Senior Fellow, Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
5. Deal or No Deal: US-Iran Talks and Implications for the Middle East | May 26, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Most signs at the moment suggest that US-Iran nuclear negotiations are making incremental progress. There might be a deal, which would have to include the US lifting some of the sanctions on the country, while the government of President Hassan Rouhani is still in place. Alternatively, the talks can drag on for months more to come. What is undeniable is that the prospects of a revived nuclear agreement to be sustainable is best served by broadening the US-Iranian dialogue as quickly as possible. A number of issues will continue to pit American and Iranian interests against each other. On this list of disagreements, US-Iran competition in Iraq is among the most contentious.
Can Iraq provide a platform for the US and Iran to co-exist? What other high-stake regional areas of competition could be impacted depending on the outcome of the US-Iran negotiations?
Speakers:
Amb. (ret.) Rend al-Rahim
Co-founder and President, The Iraq Foundation; former Iraqi Ambassador to the US
Michael Rubin
Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute
Ali Vaez
Senior Advisor to the president; Iran project Director, International Crisis Group
Alex Vatanka
Director, Iran Program, Middle East Institute
6. MEI Lebanon Policy Conference – Breaking the Lebanese Political Logjam | May 26, 2021 | 11:15 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
How can Lebanon overcome the domestic and international obstacles to forming a truly independent, reform-minded government? Is such a government even possible with the current political establishment? Which political scenarios are the most likely to unfold in the weeks and months ahead? How far has the Lebanese protest movement come since October 2019? How can an increasingly busy United States and international community support the people of Lebanon in their quest for real change? Where does Lebanon even fall on the international community’s list of priorities?
Speakers:
John Alterman
Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director, Middle East Program, CSIS
Paul Salem
President, Middle East Institute
Maha Yahya
Director, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
Christophe Abi-Nassif (Moderator)
Lebanon Program Director, Middle East Institute
7. China in the Middle East: What Lies Ahead? | May 27, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Watch Here
Conflict and instability in the Middle East show no signs of abating. Recent jousting between Israeli and Palestinian forces, the ongoing war in Yemen, and continued Saudi Arabia-Iran friction threaten to further destabilize the region. Though President Biden is attempting to restore coherence in the U.S. approach to the Middle East, his administration remains focused on responding to the pandemic domestically and on countering China in the international arena. Beijing, for its part, appears intent on playing a larger role in Middle Eastern affairs. It continues to foster stronger ties with regional countries through its Belt and Road Initiative and securing cooperation agreements, such as the twenty-five-year investment deal with Iran. How will China’s growing influence in the region affect the interests of the United States and other actors?
Speakers:
He Wenping
Professor at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Karim Sadjadpour
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Paul Haenle
Maurice R. Greenberg Director’s Chair, Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy
8. Women and Iran’s Presidential Elections: What Role Will They Play? | May 27, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Iranian women emerged as a force of change in 1997 after they voted overwhelmingly for Mohammad Khatami, bringing to power a reformist cleric. Although candidates and political parties have issued plans to improve their status to win their votes, women have seen little improvement in their rights at home and in society. Many see the country’s civil code and constitution, which were written based on Islamic Law after the revolution, as the source of discrimination.
Nevertheless, women’s role in the presidential elections on June 18 remains crucial. Will they vote and who will they vote for? What are their concerns? Or, will they stay away from the polls in a sign of protest to create a legitimacy crisis for the regime?
Speakers:
Roya Boroumand
Executive Director, The Abdorrahman Boroumand Center
Fatemeh Haghighatjoo
CEO and co-founder, Nonviolent Initiative for Democracy; Iranian scholar; women’s rights advocate
Susan Tahmassebi
Director, FEMENA; women’s rights activist
Nazila Fathi (Moderator)
Non-resident scholar, MEI
9. The Gulf Cooperation Council at 40 | May 27, 2021 | 10 AM ET | The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington | Register Here
As the GCC marks its 40th anniversary, what has been the organization’s real impact on its member states, the Gulf, and international relations? Is the GCC living up to its potential to foster regional economic integration? Can the organization still function as an effective forum for cooperation on defense and security issues, despite political divisions among its members? Will the January signing of the Al Ula agreement ending the crisis with Qatar help to build back trust and collaboration?
Speakers:
Abdullah Baabood
Chair of the State of Qatar for Islamic Area Studies and Visiting Professor, School of International Liberal Studies, Waseda University
Matteo Legrenzi
Professor of International Relations, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice
Emma Soubrier
Visiting Scholar, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Kristin Smith Diwan (Moderator)
Senior Resident Scholar, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
10. Next Steps for U.S. Policy in the Ongoing Crisis in the Middle East | May 27, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Center for American Progress | Submit questions Here
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has had devastating human costs and exposed long-time vulnerabilities and inequities among Palestinians and Israelis. The Biden administration has stepped up its engagement to work toward ending the conflict, but what steps should the United States take to address the underlying conditions that led to this latest violence?
Speakers:
Ghaith Al Omari
Former Palestinian Authority adviser; Senior Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Ezzedine C. Fishere
Former Egyptian diplomat; Senior Lecturer, Dartmouth College
Brian Katulis
Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress
Ofer Zalzberg
Director of the Middle East Program, Herbert C. Kelman Institute
Mara Rudman (Moderator)
Executive Vice President for Policy, Center for American Progress; former U.S. Deputy Envoy for Middle East Peace
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Lebanon is collapsing, so what is to be done?
Cassia King, a first-year Conflict Management student at Johns Hopkins/SAIS, writes:
To launch its new Lebanon Program, the Middle East Institute March 3 hosted a panel discussion on the current state of Lebanon and what kind of policies we should expect from the Biden administration in the country and region. Panelists included:
- Christophe Abi-Nassif (Moderator), MEI Lebanon Program Director
- Ambassador (ret.) Edward M. Gabriel, President of the American Task Force on Lebanon
- May Nasrallah, Chairwoman of the Lebanese International Finance Executives
- Paul Salem, President of the Middle East Institute
- Mona Yacoubian, Senior Advisor to the Vice President of Middle East and North Africa, United States Institute of Peace
Lebanon is in the midst of political and economic crisis. This week the value of the Lebanese pound hit a record low of 10,000 to the dollar. Nationwide protests erupted again March 2 while over 50 percent of the population slips into poverty. Lebanon is scheduled to have parliamentary and presidential elections in 2022. This could be the year that President Michel Aoun and House Speaker Nabih Berry are replaced.
Salem noted that Lebanon is at its lowest point in history. There is no consensus about what the nature of Lebanon is, whether it is independent and sovereign, or attached to other powers. The October 2019 revolt triggered by deteriorating economic conditions shook the political class but did not replace it. The old political order is dying, but the new order has yet to be born. Regionally, Lebanon is embedded in two major dynamics: US talks with Iran and the Abraham Accords. Salem stressed that we (US and international community) must insist that the 2022 elections occur on schedule. Those advocating for change still need to unify and get prepared for the elections with candidates that have real backing. As we have seen across the region, there can be powerful protests but failed election change.
Nasrallah highlighted Lebanon’s economic meltdown. The public sector is hemorrhaging and unable to produce. The government cannot service its debt, as witnessed last year when it first failed to make a $1.2 billion loan payment. The banking sector is shut down and unable to function. People have lost access to their funds. There is no end in sight for the continued collapse of the lira. COVID-19 has caused the health care system to collapse.
Stressing that Lebanon needs leadership with strategy and a plan of execution, Nasrallah remarked there is no sign of intent to fix Lebanon’s problems from its political leadership. The IMF has been waiting on standby for a good year or two. Lebanon needs a small, interim government of experts with exceptional powers to act without the parliament. This should be coordinated with central bank reform.
Yacoubian and Gabriel discussed the Washington perspective and expectations of the Biden administration.
Yacoubian stressed that Lebanon is collapsing. By every indicator the country is failing, not only economically but also in security terms. The protests that are happening now are NOT like the ones in October that were jubilant and full of hope for real change. Protesters are angry and are generating chaos and violence. Yacoubian also warned new waves of displacement could be sparked by this crisis. Lebanon’s most desperate are attempting to cross the Mediterranean to Cyprus in small boats. The Biden administration clearly has a lot on its plate, but if Lebanon is not engaged now, the US will be forced to engage later in ways that are far more costly. The US should use its power/leverage to do two things: pressure the political class to put together a government of experts, like Nasrallah suggested, and increase food aid from WFP to alleviate suffering without letting the “cronies” off the hook.
Gabriel filled in the picture on what can be expected from the Biden administration. Globally, it is focused on rebuilding trust with allies in Europe and Asia and managing great power competition to ensure Russia and China don’t become primary brokers, which could be a concern in Lebanon. The Biden administration has three default buttons: engagement (strengthened US diplomacy), values (human rights, minority inclusion), and collective action (working with like-minded countries). The Abraham Accords will be encouraged, and Palestinian aid will be reconstituted alongside an emphasis on the two-state solution. Hady Amr at the State Department will bring back a sense of trust.
On Lebanon specifically, the Biden administration will stand firm against bailing out a corrupt government and continue its support for the Lebanese Armed Forces. Two additional pragmatic steps are desirable: the creation of a fund within the next 90 days for humanitarian and civil society needs, and a high-level visit to Lebanon from US and French officials to push for the formation of a reform-minded government.
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Peace Picks | March 1 – March 5, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
- Breaking the Tie: Security and Stability in Belarus | March 1, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council| Register Here
For the past six months, Belarusians protesting for free and fair elections across the country have faced growing repression as strongman Alyaksandr Lukashenka attempts to cling to power. The opposition has demonstrated staying power and growing political capital, but the army and the security services remain loyal to Lukashenka. This domestic stalemate also presents a strategic problem for the Kremlin, which seems to have no new ideas beyond some monetary support for Lukashenka’s regime. Meanwhile the US and Europe have responded with modest financial sanctions against the discredited president and his cronies.
Do Lukashenka or Moscow have any new cards to play? Does the opposition? How will the situation in Belarus end and how will Washington, Brussels, and Moscow react?
Speakers:
Dr. Pavel Felgenhauer
Columnist with Novaya Gazeta,
David Kramer
Senior Fellow at Florida International University’s Vaclav Havel Program for Human Rights and Diplomacy
Valery Kavaleuski
Foreign Affairs Adviser to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Dr. Marie Mendras
Professor at Sciences Po’s Paris School of International Affairs
Ambassador John Herbst (Moderator)
Director of the Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
2. Red Flags Report Launch | March 2, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | Center for Strategic International Studies | Register Here
China’s political and economic influence in the Western Balkans is on the rise, fueled in part by a regional demand for infrastructure which is satisfied by opaque deals in the ICT, energy, and transportation sectors. These projects present risks to good governance, economic growth, environmental sustainability, and digital security. Join CSIS for a virtual discussion of a new CSIS report which describes tools and actions critical for stakeholders to objectively evaluate and respond to these risks. The report concludes a three-part series which examined the nature and impact of Chinese economic influence in the Western Balkans and its implications for the region’s stability and Euro-Atlantic aspirations.
Speakers:
Matthew D. Steinhelfer (Keynote)
Acting Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, U.S. Department of State
Heather A. Conley
Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic, CSIS
Jonathan E. Hillman, Senior Fellow and Director of the Reconnecting Asia Project, CSIS
Valerie Hopkins (Moderator)
South-East Europe Correspondent, The Financial Times
3. Lebanon: Challenges and Future Prospects| March 3, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Middle East Institute| Register Here
The Middle East Institute is pleased to invite you to a panel to launch its Lebanon Program, focusing on Lebanon’s current state of affairs and potential US foreign policy options going forward. The months-long political stalemate and the unaddressed financial crisis keep pushing Lebanon further into chaos and uncertainty. In parallel, the new Biden administration is redefining the US stance vis-à-vis Iran and reassessing some of its bilateral relations in the region. Many of these changes will have direct implications for Lebanon. This distinguished panel will address these local and regional developments, think through ways US foreign policy towards Lebanon can be more nuanced and constructive, and highlight themes and signals that are worth paying attention to in the coming months.
Speakers:
Amb. (ret.) Edward M. Gabriel
President and CEO, American Task Force on Lebanon
May Nasrallah
Chairwoman, Lebanese International Finance Executives
Paul Salem
President, MEI
Mona Yacoubian
Senior Advisor to the Vice President of Middle East and North Africa, United States Institute of Peace
Christophe Abi-Nassif (Moderator)
Lebanon Program Director, MEI
4. Agent Sonya: Moscow’s Most Daring Wartime Spy | March 3, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Middle East Institute| Register Here
Please join the Intelligence Project for a discussion with Ben MacIntyre on his latest book, Agent Sonya. This true-life spy story is a masterpiece about the Soviet intelligence officer code-named “Sonya.” Over the course of her career, she was hunted by the Chinese, the Japanese, the Nazis, MI5, MI6, and the FBI—and she evaded them all. Her story reflects the great ideological clash of the twentieth century—between Communism, Fascism, and Western democracy—and casts new light on the spy battles and shifting allegiances of our own times.
With unparalleled access to Sonya’s diaries and correspondence and never-before-seen information on her clandestine activities, Macintyre has conjured a page-turning history of a legendary secret agent, a woman who influenced the course of the Cold War and helped plunge the world into a decades-long standoff between nuclear superpowers.
Speakers:
Ben Macintyre
Author and Journalist, The Times
5. Insanity Defense: Why Our Failure to Confront Hard National Security Problems Makes Us Less Safe | March 3, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
In the wake of unprecedented domestic terror and national security threats in the form of mass shootings and insurrection in the nation’s capital, former Congresswoman & Wilson Center Director, President, and CEO Jane Harman offers her new book Insanity Defense: Why Our Failure to Confront Hard National Security Problems Makes Us Less Safe (St. Martin’s Press; May 18, 2021), which chronicles how four consecutive administrations have failed to confront some of the toughest national security issues and suggests achievable fixes that can move us toward a safer future.
Please join Congresswoman Harman and New York Times national security correspondent and senior writer David Sanger for an in-depth conversation on the book and a discussion on better processes and more sound policy for the next generation of elected officials and the new administration.
Speakers:
Jane Harman
Director, President and CEO, Wilson Center
David Sanger
Former Distinguished Fellow, National Security Correspondent and Writer, the New York Times; Author, The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage and Fear in the Cyber Age
6. Religion, Ethnicity, and Charges Of Extremism: The Dynamics Of Inter-Communal Violence In Ethiopia| March 4, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | European Institute of Peace| Register Here
In recent months, the conflict in Tigray has dominated most analyses of Ethiopian politics. The scale of the Tigray crisis makes this understandable, but in its shadow, inter-communal tensions and conflicts have persisted across Ethiopia. In recent years there were numerous violent incidents, such as the Amhara regional ‘coup’ attempt of June 2019, the violence across Oromia in October 2019, and incidents around Timkat in Dire Dawa and Harar in January 2020.
A team of Ethiopian and international researchers – Terje Østebø, Jörg Haustein, Fasika Gedif, Kedir Jemal Kadir, Muhammed Jemal, and Yihenew Alemu Tesfaye – studied two incidents of inter-communal violence: the attacks on mosques and (mostly) Muslim properties in Mota, Amhara region in December 2019 and the violence and destruction of properties in Shashemene and other towns in Oromia in July 2020. They will present their findings in this event, followed by discussion and Q&A.
Their research shows that in Ethiopia religion and ethnic violence overlap and interact with one another in complex ways. Given the current emphasis on ethnicity in Ethiopian politics, the role of religious affiliation is often overlooked, yet it is here that the accusation of “extremism” is most frequently and most consequentially raised: the mere expectation or accusation of extremism has sufficed to generate inter-communal violence and deepened a climate of mistrust.
Speakers:
Terje Østebø
University of Florida
Jörg Haustein
University of Cambridge
Sandy Wade (Moderator)
Senior Advisor, European Institute of Peace
7. COVID-19 and Cooperation in Libya | March 4, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace| Register Here
Libya is at a turning point after the U.N.-sponsored Libyan Political Dialogue Forum elected a temporary executive authority in February to unify the country and move toward elections by year’s end. However, sustainable peace cannot be achieved with only an agreement at the national level. And the COVID-19 crisis has exacerbated economic challenges, strained the country’s health infrastructure, and added a new layer of complexity to the country’s conflict. Local-level cooperation—and linking these efforts to the national-level peace process—is of utmost importance to achieve a cohesive and peaceful country.
And despite a difficult year, there have been bright spots for Libya on this front. The COVID-19 pandemic yielded many examples of local-level initiatives where Libyans came together in challenging conditions to cooperate for a common goal. The hope is that these successes can lead to longer and more enduring areas of cooperation.
Join USIP as we host Libya’s ambassador to the United States and Libyan civil society leaders for a look at stories of positive community cooperation during the current crisis—as well as a discussion on how Libyan and international organizations can build off these successes to navigate Libya’s complex conflict and ensure a peaceful future for the country.
Speakers:
Wafa Bughaighis (Keynote speaker)
Libyan Ambassador to the United States
Ahmed Albibas
Director, Moomken Organization for Awareness and Media
Abdulrahman A. S. Elgheriani
President and CEO, Tanmia 360
Craig Browne
Program Policy Officer, World Food Programme
Nate Wilson (Moderator)
Libya Country Manager, U.S. Institute of Peace
8. Unraveling the Conflict in Syria March 4, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
In 2012, as the conflict in Syria continued to smolder, then-president Barack Obama made clear that any use of chemical weapons by the Bashar al-Assad regime would constitute a “red line” for U.S. engagement. Yet in the aftermath of a sarin attack outside Damascus just a year later, the Obama administration seized the opportunity to work with Russia on an ambitious plan to hunt down and remove chemical weapons rather than go to war. A decade later, the tangle of “heroes and villains” involved in that particular scenario is clearer.
Speakers:
Joby Warrick
Author of Red Line
Maha Yahya
Director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
9. The Future of ISIS March 4, 2021 | 11:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
On October 27, 2019, then-US President Donald Trump announced that the leader of the so-called Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was killed in Syria in an American special operation, striking a blow against an already weakened organization.
What ISIS accomplished during the period of its rise and growth represents a “quantum leap” in the ideology, strategies, and operating theories of terrorist groups, and requires deep analysis of the organization’s expected future trajectory. The Politics and Society Institute in Amman, Jordan, and the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative in Washington, DC, are pleased to co-host this expert discussion. This panel will shed light on what opportunities exist for policymakers to deal with the legacy of ISIS detainees and returnees, as well as on strategies against a potential resurgence in Iraq and Syria.
Speakers:
Mohammed Abu Rumman
Expert, Politics and Society Institute
Former Jordanian Minister of Youth and Culture
Borzou Daragahi
Journalist and Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Andrew Peek
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Former US Deputy Assistant Secretary for Iran and Iraq
Mara Revkin
National Security Law Fellow, Georgetown University Law Center
Banan Malkawi (Moderator)
Jordanian-American Researcher and Lecturer
10. Strategic nuclear modernization in the United States| March 4, 2021 | 2:00 PM ET | Brookings Institutions| Register Here
What: As with prior administrations before it, the Biden administration is preparing to undertake a major review of the U.S. strategic nuclear modernization program. Though the U.S. arsenal has decreased in accordance with the New START treaty, new delivery systems are still being developed.
Supporters of the current program argue that implementation is critical for the United States’ ability to deter adversaries and reassure allies. Opponents argue that the current program is well in excess of deterrence requirements and is not affordable over the long term. During the review period, Congress will examine the current program as well as requested funding for these systems.
On Thursday, March 4, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings will host a panel to discuss how the Biden administration will – and should – approach negotiations regarding the future of the strategic modernization program.
Speakers:
Tom Collina
Director of Policy, Ploughshares Fund
Madelyn R. Creedon
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Center for Security, Strategy and Technology
Franklin Miller
Principal, The Scowcroft Group
Amy Woolf
Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy, Congressional Research Service
Frank A Rose
Co-Director and Foreign Policy Fellow, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology
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