Tag: Lebanon
One more problem in Lebanon, but now may not be the time to solve it
Samin Mirfakhrai, a first-year Conflict Management student at SAIS, writes:
The Carnegie Middle East Center February 19 held a discussion of inequality in Lebanon. Panelists were:
- Lydia Assouad, El-Erian Fellow, Carnegie Middle East Center; PhD Candidate, Paris School of Economics
- Haneen Sayed, Human Development Specialist, World Bank Group
- Toufic Gaspard, Former Senior Economic Advisor to the Lebanese Minister of Finance; Advisor, IMF
- Gregg Carlstrom as moderator, Middle East Correspondent, The Economist
Key Points
Income and wealth inequality have been a cornerstone of the Lebanese economy for decades; the existing disparity has grown more extreme since 2005. The political elite have long upheld a system rooted in clientelist institutions and policies. The political culture has exacerbated economic inequalities to benefit the ruling elite and forego creating opportunities in upward mobility for the middle and lower classes.
The state of the political economy is dire. Without the proper reforms, financial collapse is imminent. Within the scope of fiscal policy, implementing a general and progressive income tax, increasing top marginal tax rates, and instituting an annual wealth tax are recommended to increase the national revenue.
Economic reform must be coupled with political form. Long-term programs that increase human development, continue economic subsidies, and offer cash assistance can lower inequality rates, yet the financing needed for such measures is unavailable. Panelists agree that real change cannot be achieved without political reform.
Figures
The richest 10 percent of the population hold approximately 70 percent of total wealth in the country.
Extreme poverty in Lebanon has nearly doubled since 2012.
The lower poverty line, classified as anyone who cannot provide their daily caloric needs, is at 22 percent.
The Human Capital Index in 2018 was 0.52, meaning a child born in Lebanon can expect to be 52 percent as productive as he/she could be upon reaching the age of 18.
Summary
This event was organized around Lydia Assouad’s research on economic equality in Lebanon. Her recent paper for the Carnegie Middle East Center entitled “Lebanon’s Political Economy: From Predatory to Self-Devouring” focuses on assessing income and wealth inequality at the apex of several converging crises. Income inequality has been a ubiquitous aspect of Lebanon’s socioeconomic sphere since the state was formally established in 1943. While it isrecognized that inequality has persisted since the decades before Lebanon’s civil war erupted in 1975, data is lacking.
Inequality has grown more severe as the country faces various crises that have combined to beget a serious humanitarian crisis. In 2019, a massive protest movement responded to decades of policies that have sustained and exacerbated levels of economic inequality that are considered some of the highest in the world. Since then, a number of events, including a protracted banking crisis, coronavirus, and the Beirut port explosion, have compounded on a dire situation.
Assouad’s research first tackled the dearth of data on economic inequality in Lebanon. There is little data available on the phenomena prior to 2005, the year Syrian forces left Lebanon after nearly three decades of occupation. The data since then is incomplete. Her novel methods of collecting micro-fiscal data allowed Assouad to delve into the nature of inequality in the country and deliver a sober message that economic amelioration must be coupled with political reform. The political elite are often the country’s wealthiest individuals, who continue to take part in kleptocratic and corrupt practices lacking in political accountability and integrity.
Assouad’s recommendations emphasize the need for tax reform in order to generate government revenue. Specifically, she advocates a progressive income tax that would combine all sources of income as one, instead of considering them separately. Additionally, an exceptional wealth tax of 10% on billionaires would collect approximately 2-3% of the national income.
Panelist Gaspard criticized Assouad’s focus on tax reform, suggesting that a progressive tax would not be feasible for a developing economy like Lebanon’s because fiscal management and administrative systems are underdeveloped. He further expanded that while fiscal policy has caused the collapse of the exchange rate, it is monetary policy that brought the collapse of the banking system. Attendees also questioned the ability to tax a wider base when public trust in institutions is so low.
All panelists agreed that economic reform would need to be coupled with massive political change in order to reverse Lebanon’s collapse, but major reforms are difficult during stability, let alone during the country’s current crisis. Such changes require strong leadership, political consensus, public engagement, and tough measures—a combination not to be found in Lebanon today.
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Beyond success and failure lies attractive possibility
Michael Picard, a first-year Conflict Management student at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, writes:
The Wilson Center February 24 hosted a panel discussion on “Revisiting the Arab Uprisings at 10: Beyond Success and Failure.” that weighed the societal impacts of the Arab uprisings 10 years after they broke out. The term “Arab Spring” is a misnomer as the revolts did not result in democratic reform – the term Arab uprisings was used instead.
The key question was whether the Arab uprisings werea failure that is now over or are they the beginning of a longer process of societal transformation?
Panelists
Liz Sly (moderator): Beirut Bureau Chief, Washington Post
Amy Austin Holmes: International Affairs Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
Marina Ottaway: Middle East Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Asher Orkaby: Fellow, Transregional Institute, Princeton University
Anas El Gomati: Founder and Director, Sadeq Institute
Focusing specifically on the experiences of Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and Libya, the panelists presented and weighed the legacy of each country’s uprising 10 years on. Despite initial popular hope, there was never a serious expectation among observers that these states would transition to democracy overnight. What we have witnessed so far is the beginning of a long-term transformation of the MENA region. The memories of pre-uprising realities are still pertinent, and the youthful composition of Arab societies highlights the need for political and economic reforms.
Several panelists noted the US must examine how its policies and signals have impeded demoratic transitions. Regarding the 2013 coup that deposed Mohammed Morsi, Egypt’s first democratically elected leader, the African Union immediately expelled Egypt in response to this setback. The US did not react until the Rabaa massacre, which killed hundreds of pro-Morsi demonstrators. This reflects a broader theme: that the US must consider its democracy promotion goals and what its precise role ought to be in realizing these goals.
The panel also discussed the role of the Gulf monarchies in the Arab uprisings, noting that they saw such movements – both those originating domestically and in nearby states – as existential threats. Ottaway offered an anecdote about a Saudi official who anticipated expatriate students would demand greater civil liberties. This compelled the Gulf states to act – near unanimously – to crush domestic uprisings and take an active international role in promoting counterrevolutions. This has caused immense destruction throughout the region, derailing local conflict management efforts and restraining Gulf proxies from negotiating settlements.
Ottaway observed that perhaps the most pessimistic lesson of the Arab uprisings was that removal of large, unitary, Arab regimes that dominated political life has revealed that the building blocks of democracy were absent, with the narrow exception of Tunisia. Tunisia was able to avoid fates similar to Libya and Yemen because it is a) socially homogenous with relatively few ethnic and sectarian minorities, and b) politically pluralistic. Historically salient political organizations already existed and held society together, albeit in uneasy, unstable balances.
The panelists spoke to new dynamics and outcomes that continue to emerge. Several elaborated on “second generation” protest movements in Lebanon, Iraq, Algeria, and Sudan. In these contexts, protestors demonstrated greater understanding of how their movements could be more inclusive, better organized, and better at extracting meaningful government concessions. This has helped them avoid the high-stakes losses of the “first generation” protest movements.
The panelists noted unanimously that the Arab uprisings have had positive implications for women and some minorities. In several countries, women initiated the initial protest movements, focused on detention of their kin. In war-torn states, women have taken on a more active role in daily economic and social life. The panelists hope that these gains will be locked in with female participation quotas in emergent governance institutions. In Egypt, the Nubian minority gained recognition in the constitution and procured the right to return to ancestral lands from which they were forcibly displaced.
Conclusion
The panel agreed that the Arab uprisings were not failures that are now over but the beginning of a longer transitional process and state-building experiment. Orkaby noted these uprisings sparked the creation of local civil society organizations or strengthened existing ones. El Gomati noted the renewal of social protests in Lebanon, Iraq, Algeria, and Sudan, indicating civilians are still willing to take to the streets. Austin Holmes emphasized that much will depend on how the Biden administration postures itself toward the region, especially with regard to countries that have retained despotic features.
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Peace Picks | November 16 – November 20, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Corruption in Kyrgyzstan: The Path Forward | November 16, 2020 | 9:00-10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
It has been over a month since political upheaval in Kyrgyzstan resulted in the collapse of the government of now-former President Sooronbay Jeenbekov and the rise of Sadyr Japarov, a former convict, to the position of acting president. With new presidential elections now planned for January, the country’s political landscape is changing fast, with Japarov implausibly promising an anti-corruption campaign—a key concern of those who protested on the streets in October.
This dramatic shift is driven by growing anger over corruption and poor governance—laid particularly bare by the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, despite the public’s demands for stronger government accountability, corrupt organized crime is still flourishing and poised to have increased influence in a plausible Japarov presidency.
Please join us for a discussion on Kyrgyzstan’s legacies of corruption, prospects for better governance, and popular responses to the recent social and political upheaval the country has witnessed, all based on a new, groundbreaking report released by RFE/RL, Kloop, and OCCRP.
Speakers:
Shirin Aitmatova: former member of Kyrgyz Parliament and a leader of Umut 2020 – a people’s movement that focuses on anti-corruption investigations.
Asel Doolotkeldieva: associate research fellow at the OSCE Academy in Bishkek. Her research examines social mobilization, religiosity and gender, democratization and institution-building, rent-seeking from natural resources, and migration in Kyrgyzstan. She holds a PhD from the University of Exeter.
Bruce Pannier: senior Central Asian affairs correspondent, who writes the Qishloq Ovozi blog and appears regularly on the Majlis podcast for RFE/RL.
Carl Schreck: RFE/RL’s enterprise editor. He has covered politics, crime, business, and sports in Russia and the former Soviet Union for nearly 20 years, including nearly a decade while based in Moscow.
Paul Stronski: senior fellow in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program, where his research focuses on the relationship between Russia and neighboring countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
2. Trans-Atlantic Cooperation and the International Order After the US Election | November 16, 2020 | 9:45 – 11:45 AM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
Over the past four years, the United States has often abdicated its traditional leadership role, leaving allies across the Atlantic to fend for themselves. Now, as Americans and Europeans alike process the results of the U.S. election, significant practical and political questions about the future of the trans-Atlantic relationship and the global order abound. With Joe Biden in the White House, will European leaders be willing to once again rely on the U.S. as an ally? While a Biden administration will certainly be more friendly to trans-Atlantic relations and multilateralism, will this shift be lasting or merely a lapse amid an increasingly isolationist era of American foreign policy? With Republicans likely to retain control of the Senate, what impact would a divided government have on the new administration’s foreign policy?
On Monday, November 16, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a conference to consider these questions and other implications of the next U.S. administration for the future of the international order and trans-Atlantic cooperation. Questions from the audience will follow the discussion.
Schedule and Speakers:
Welcoming Remarks: 9:45 AM – 10:00 AM
Suzanne Maloney: Vice President and Director – Foreign Policy
Henry Alt-Haaker: Senior Vice President, Strategic Partnerships and Robert Bosch Academy – Robert Bosch Stiftung
Panel Discussion: 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM
James Goldgeier: Robert Bosch Senior Visiting Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Fiona Hill: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Stormy-Annika Mildner: Head of Department, External Economic Policy – Federation of German Industries
Rachel Rizzo: Director of Programs – Truman National Security Project; Adjunct Fellow, Transatlantic Program – Center for a New American Security
Marietje Schaake: International Policy Director – Cyber Policy Center at Stanford University
Constanze Stelzenmüller, moderator: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Keynote: 11:00 AM – 11:45 AM
Nathalie Tocci: Director – Istituto Affari Internazionali; Honorary Professor – University of Tübingen
Thomas Wright, moderator: Director – Center on the United States and Europe; Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Project on International Order and Strategy
3. Assessing Perceptions of Affected Communities in Northern Iraq on Peace, Justice and Governance | November 16, 2020 | 11:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative and the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative on Monday, November 16 from 11:30 am – 12:30 pm ET presenting a timely survey which offers a snapshot of the perceptions and attitudes in northern Iraq about peace and justice within communities affected by the conflict with the Islamic State (IS). The discussion will feature Abulrazzaq Al-Saiedi, research manager, Iraq country expert and policy advisor at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Abbas Kadhim, director of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council, Phuong Pham, director of evaluation and implementation science at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Patrick Vinck, research director at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, and moderated by Kirsten Fontenrose, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
The report (available in Arabic) by the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative’s Peace and Human Rights Data Program, details how northern Iraqi communities targeted by the Islamic State (IS) are denied justice. Based on 5,213 interviews conducted in 2019 among a representative sample of internally displaced persons in northern Iraq and residents of the city of Mosul and surrounding areas, the research documents a severe lack of trust in official institutions, particularly in the Government of Iraq itself, stemming in large part from the belief that these institutions do not act in the best interest of the population.
Speakers:
Abulrazzaq Al-Saiedi: Research Manager, Iraq Country Expert, and Policy Advisor, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
Abbas Kadhim: Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council
Phuong Pham: Director of Evaluation and Implementation Science, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
Patrick Vinck: Research Director, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
Kirsten Fontenrose, moderator: Director, Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, Atlantic Council
4. Moldova’s Presidential Elections | November 16, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:15 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
On November 15, incumbent Moldovan President Igor Dodon will face pro-European opposition candidate Maia Sandu in a national run-off election. Sandu has promised to fight corruption, poverty, and reform the criminal justice system. Dodon is considered the most pro-Russian candidate, advocating to make Russian compulsory in schools and to strengthen Moldova’s strategic partnership with Russia. Amb. William Hill, former Moldovan Minister of Foreign Affairs Nicu Popescu, and DGAP Research Fellow Cristina Gherasimov will consider the results of the runoff election, its implications, and how the next president in Chisinau will manage Moldova-Russian relations.
Speakers:
William H. Hill: Global Fellow; Former Professor of National Security Strategy, National War College, Washington D.C.
Nicu Popescu: Director, Wider Europe Programme, European Council on Foreign Relations
Cristina Gherasimov: Research Fellow, Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia, DGAP
Matthew Rojansky, moderator: Director, Kennan Institute
5. US and Iranian Strategies for a Biden Administration | November 17, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The looming arrival of the Joe Biden administration in January 2021 provides the leadership in Tehran with an opportunity to seek a qualitatively different relationship with the United States. President-elect Biden has already expressed a desire to salvage the 2015 nuclear deal, which the Trump administration abandoned in 2018. While Tehran awaits to see what, if any, conditions the Biden team has for the resumption of the diplomatic track and removal of US-led sanctions, a policy fight is already under way inside the Iranian state about the future of US-Iran relations.
The American question in Tehran is not just a foreign policy file but ultimately linked to the question of whether the Islamic Republic opts to continue a revolutionary and militant foreign policy or settles for a path of de-escalation with Washington and other rivals. How much of this policy competition in Tehran will shape Washington’s next steps vis-à-vis Iran?
To discuss these matters and other key challenges in the path of US-Iran relations in the coming Biden administration, we are delighted to host a panel of experts.
Speakers:
Jon Alterman: Senior vice president, Zbigniew Brzezinski chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and director, Middle East Program, CSIS
Hannah Kaviani:Staffer, RFE/RL’s Persian language service, Radio Farda
Behnam Ben Taleblu: Senior fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Alex Vatanka (moderator): Senior fellow and director, Iran program, MEI
6. The Future of Palestinian Politics under a Biden Administration | November 17, 2020; November 19, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:45 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Former Vice President Joe Biden’s election victory over President Donald Trump is likely to produce a major reset in American-Palestinian relations as well as in Washington’s role in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking. No U.S. president had done more to isolate Palestinians and delegitimize Palestinian national aspirations than Trump. Meanwhile, Biden has pledged to reverse the most destructive aspects of Trump’s policies and restore U.S.-Palestinian relations in the hope of salvaging what remains of a two-state solution.
Yet even as the Palestinians breathe a collective sigh of relief at Trump’s departure, the Palestinians’ internal house remains in a state of disarray and decline. The Palestinian national movement, now at one of the lowest points in its history, continues to be racked by political division, institutional stagnation, and a lack of strategic clarity.
To shed light on these and other issues, the Middle East Institute (MEI) invites you to join a two-part webinar series on the Future of Palestinian Politics Under a Biden Administration, moderated by MEI’s Khaled Elgindy
Speakers:
Part 1 – Reviving Palestinian Political Life
Tareq Baconi: Senior analyst, International Crisis Group
Sam Bahour: Ramallah-based business consultant
Mustafa Barghouti:General secretary, Palestinian National Initiative
Noura Erakat: Human rights attorney; assistant professor, Rutgers University
Khaled Elgindy, moderator: Senior fellow and director, Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Part 2 – Toward a Palestinian National Strategy
Dana ElKurd: Researcher, Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies
Mariam Barghouti: Political commentator and writer
Yousef Munayyer: Non-resident fellow, MEI
Nasser AlKidwa: Former Permanent Observer of Palestine to the United Nations and Palestinian Foreign Minister
Khaled Elgindy, moderator: Senior fellow and director, Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
7. Building a Climate Resilient and Just Future for All: Delivering Action and Ambition | November 17, 2020 | 1:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought resilience to the fore. It has laid bare the vulnerability of our societies and economies and exposed the lack of risk planning in countries. During this event, speakers will focus on the need to carry out ambitious actions on building resilience and identify what can be done to set up a decade of action.
This high level event will bring together the outcomes of the Regional Resilience Dialogues and Race to Zero resilience-focused dialogues and highlight how to advance the action of non-state actors and initiatives to deliver outcomes at COP26 and beyond. The High Level Champions, Gonzalo Muñoz and Nigel Topping, will also use this event to share their developing plans for a Race for Resilience campaign as a sister to the Race to Zero campaign to deliver a decade of action.
This dialogue will build upon previous Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action roundtables held at COP23, COP24 and COP25 events, the Global Commission on Adaptation, and from the UN Climate Action Summit and the Call to Action on Adaptation and Resilience.
Speakers:
Opening Remarks
Nigel Topping: High Level Climate Action Champion, UK, COP26
Gonzalo Muñoz: High Level Climate Action Champion, Chile, COP26
Panel Discussions
Panel 1: The Challenge: Why action on Resilience is a must?
Johan Rockstrom: Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Professor in Earth System Science, University of Potsdam; Chair of the Global Resilience Partnership Advisory Council
Saleemul Huq: Director, International Centre for Climate Change & Development (ICCCAD); Chair of Resilience track for UN Food Systems Summit 2021
Emma Howard-Boyd: UK Commissioner, Global Commission on Adaptation and Chair of the Environment Agency
Wanjira Mathai, moderator: Vice President and Regional Director for Africa, World Resources Institute
Panel 2: Opportunities for Ambitious Action
Kathy Baughman McLeod: Senior Vice President and Director, Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center; Atlantic Council, representing the Extreme Heat Resilience Alliance (EHRA)
Zakia Naznin: Programme Manager, Concern Worldwide, representing the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance
Karen Sack: CEO, Ocean Unite, representing Ocean Risk and Resilience Action Alliance
Wanjira Mathai, moderator: Vice President and Regional Director for Africa, World Resources Institute
Panel 3: Delivering Ambition and a Decade of Action
Julio Cordano: Head, Department of Climate Change, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Chile and COP 25 Chilean Presidency Representative
Patrick Verkooijen: Chief Executive Officer, Global Center on Adaptation
Anne-Marie Trevelyan: UK International Champion on Adaptation and Resilience, COP26
Wanjira Mathai, moderator: Vice President and Regional Director for Africa, World Resources Institute
Closing Remarks
Nigel Topping: High Level Climate Action Champion, UK, COP26
Gonzalo Muñoz: High Level Climate Action Champion, Chile, COP26
8. Lebanon: Out with the Old, In with the What? | November 17, 2020 | 16:00 – 17:00 EET | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
While Lebanon’s ruling elite continues to delay the formation of a new cabinet under Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, French President Emmanuel Macron is growing impatient as he watches his initiative and timeline for reforms crumble. The Trump Administration, meanwhile, is still ramping up sanctions on Hezbollah’s allies in government. Where does the government formation stand today? What remains of the French initiative? How might U.S. foreign policy towards Lebanon shift under President-Elect Joe Biden?
Speakers:
Ishac Diwan: Chaire d’Excellence Monde Arabe at Paris Sciences et Lettres and is a professor at the École Normale Supérieure, Paris
Dorothée Schmid: senior research fellow and heads the Turkey and Middle East Program at the French Institute of International Relations.
Randa Slim: senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and a non-resident fellow at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced and International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute.
Maha Yahya: Director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, where her research focuses on citizenship, pluralism, and social justice in the aftermath of the Arab uprisings.
9. What Does the World Expect of President-elect Joe Biden? | November 17, 2020 | 2:30 – 4:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
The next U.S. Administration faces a complicated, volatile world. Please join Wilson Center experts on Russia, China, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and Latin America as they interview colleagues and experts on the ground in their regions to discuss what a Biden Administration means in terms of our relationships around the globe.
Our experts will host a spirited conversation on the foreign policy expectations and challenges confronting the next President of the United States.
Speakers:
Jane Harman: Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center
Cynthia J. Arnson: Director, Latin American Program
Robert Daly: Director, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States
Daniel S. Hamilton: Director, Global Europe Program; Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Distinguished Fellow
Merissa Khurma: Program Manager, Middle East Program
Monde Muyangwa: Africa Program Director
Matthew Rojansky: Director, Kennan Institute
Duncan Wood: Director, Mexico Institute
John Milewski, moderator: Director of Digital Programming; Moderator, Wilson Center NOW
10. Exceptions to the Rules: Civilian Harm and Accountability in the Shadow Wars | November 19, 2020 | 9:30 – 11:00 AM ET | Stimson Center | Register Here
Nearly two decades after 9/11, the CIA and Special Operations Forces have become increasingly involved in U.S. counterterrorism operations around the world –often operating in the shadows and under a growing set of broad exceptions to the rules that govern the lawful use of lethal force, civilian harm mitigation, transparency, and accountability. Join the Stimson Center and the Center for Civilians in Conflict for a discussion of these programs and the launch of a new report examining the tradeoffs involved with normalizing these exceptions, and offering concrete recommendations for increasing public awareness and strengthening oversight and accountability.
Speakers:
Daniel Mahanty: Director, US Program, Center for Civilians in Conflict
Rita Siemion: Director, National Security Advocacy, Human Rights First
Rachel Stohl, Vice President, Stimson Center
Stephen Tankel: Associate Professor, American University; Adjunct Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security
11. Elections in the Black Sea Region | November 19, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Elections are taking place across the Black Sea, including in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. The three countries have Association Agreements with the EU and have benefitted from significant Western support over the last years. All three countries also share the problems of separatist and frozen conflicts on their territories that affect their security and stability. Elections outcomes in all three countries will have important implications for the foreign policy orientation of the countries and their role in the Black Sea region. Elections in the region coincide with the COVID-19 pandemic and an economic crisis with potentially devastating effects for the region. The Middle East Institute (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative is pleased to host a discussion with the Ambassadors of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine to the United States on the election process, outcomes, and implications for the Black Sea region.
How did the election process and the results fair out for Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine? What are the main challenges around the elections in the context of the pandemic and economic crisis? How will the election results impact their foreign policies in the years to come?
Speakers:
David Bakradze: Georgian Ambassador to the United States
Eugen Caras: Moldovan Ambassador to the United States
Yelchenko Volodymyr: Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States
Iulia Joja, moderator: Senior Fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative
12. RESOLVE Network 2020 Global Forum: Violent Extremism in 2020 and Beyond | November 19, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:15 AM ET | USIP | Register Here
The year 2020 has ushered in rapid and significant shifts in existing threats to global security. From the COVID-19 pandemic to climate change and longstanding violent conflict, the pressures facing our current global system are increasingly complex and all-encompassing. Among these, violent extremism remains a significant challenge—shifting as actors adapt and take advantage of ongoing and emerging global shocks and sources of instability.
How has the violent extremism landscape changed in the five years since the “fall” of ISIS? How has rising global instability, populism, and disinformation altered violent extremist operations and ideologies, and vice versa? What challenges do we face in addressing violent extremism in the new threat landscape? Can we apply any lessons from past experiences to address emerging threats and dynamics in 2020 and beyond?
Please join the RESOLVE Network and USIP for a discussion about these challenges and more during part one of RESOLVE’s fifth annual Global Forum series. Convened virtually, the forum will bring together leading experts and researchers for thought-provoking conversations on evolving trends and dynamics in the violent extremist landscape.
Speakers:
Dr. Alastair Reed, opening remarks: Senior Expert and Executive Director of the RESOLVE Network
Dr. Mary Beth Altier: Clinical Associate Professor, Center for Global Affairs, New York University
Dr. Amarnath Amarasingam: Assistant Professor, School of Religion, Queen’s University, member of the RESOLVE Research Advisory Council
Dr. Colin P. Clarke: Senior Research Fellow, The Soufan Center, member of the RESOLVE Research Advisory Council
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Ten years of Arab protests but little change
Almost ten years have passed since the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi sparked mass protests in Tunisia, sparking regime change and brutal civil wars across the Arab world. While most consider the initial uprisings in 2011 an abject failure for the cause of democracy in the region, the resurgence of mass protests over the last two years in Lebanon, Iraq, Algeria and elsewhere demonstrate that the Arab Spring continues to smolder. The Wilson Center convened a panel of scholars to address the future for a region destabilized by ten years of civil unrest.
Rami Khouri: Former Public Policy Scholar; Director of Global Engagement, American University of Beirut, columnist, Agence Global Syndicate, USA, and The New Arab, London and Nonresident Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School
Marina Ottaway: Middle East Fellow, Former Senior Research Associate and Head of the Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ziad Abu-Rish: Co-Director, MA Program in Human Rights and the Arts, Bard College; Co-Editor, Jadaliyya
Merissa Khurma, moderator: Program Manager, Middle East Program
The genie is out of the bottle
Rami Khouri, Marina Ottaway and Ziad Abu-Rish all concurred that mass protests were a “new normal” for the Middle East that should be expected throughout the region into the future.
Khouri points to several factors that prompt citizens across the region to protest their governments. The economic situation has become dire for many citizens of Arab states. The middle class has all but disappeared and most governments are no longer able to provide basic necessities for their citizens. Citizens are overwhelmingly turning to civil society for support. COVID-19 has increased inequality regionwide. MENA is the only region that is overwhelmingly authoritarian and adept at suppressing discontent. The resulting clash between the desperation of the citizenry and repression will lead to more mass protests until one side finally gives way.
The speakers concur that the same economic factors that stir discontent can also deprive protests of their strength. Abu-Rish notes that fatigue from economic deprivation has caused a lull in the Lebanese protests after the explosion. Arab governments understand this, and thus are playing a war of attrition against protestors.
Solidarity has grown through shared strife
Rami has noticed another new phenomenon created by a decade of protests – a cross-cutting sense of national identity. Ottoway echoed this sentiment, explaining that as protestors from different walks of life interact with each other, they realize that they are protesting for the same set of basic human needs and are able to overcome their ideological differences. But she cautions that not all Arabs share the same principles of citizenry; some are happy to live under authoritarian leaders if doing so grants them security and privilege.
But opposition needs leadership
Ottaway and Abu-Rish were less optimistic about the prospects of democratization and liberalization in the Middle East than Khouri. The protestors, while they are united in the belief that the status quo must be changed, have competing visions about what should replace it. Ottaway also notes that, historically, change almost always occurs from the top down. The decentralized nature of the protests means that protestors will find it difficult to persuade policymakers that change is needed. She points to Tunisia, Sudan, and the American civil rights movement to argue that change only occurrs because there are leaderships within the opposition that persuaded the ruling elites to make changes.
To watch the event in full, click here.
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Peace Picks | October 5 – October 9, 2020
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Oil, Arms, Drones, and Regional Tensions: The Second Berlin Conference on Libya and Crafting a New Interim Government | October 5, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:00 PM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
With the War for Tripoli won in the late Spring by the defenders and a new mutually hurting stalemate taking hold around Jufra and Sirte over the course of the summer, the arena of Libya’s Wars of Post-Gaddafi Succession have shifted to cyberspace and the negotiating table. Amid a flurry of influence operations, attempts to manipulate media optics, and the Prime Minister pledging to go into retirement if a suitable successor is found, the last weeks of September witnessed a flurry of internationally-hosted mediation dialogues on Libya taking place in Morocco, Egypt, Geneva, and Russia. On October 5, a second virtual Berlin Conference is slated to tackle the interlocking issues of oil production, distribution of revenues, the arms embargo, mercenaries and the increasingly polarization among NATO allies with France and Greece on one side and Turkey on the other.
What are the possible trajectories of Libya’s conflict from here? What sort of entity might replace the GNA? What is the future of Libya’s economic system as new mechanisms for the distribution of oil revenues now being debated? How can international actors cooperate to prevent spoilers from scuppering progress?
Speakers:
Deborah Jones: Former US Ambassador to Libya
Wolfgang Pusztai: Former Austrian Military attache to Libya
Jason Pack: Founder, Libya-Analysis LLC; non-resident scholar, MEI
Jonathan Winer, moderator: Non-resident scholar, MEI; former US Special Envoy to Libya
2. Foreign Policy and the 2020 Election: Implications for Europe | October 5, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:15 AM EDT | Brookings Institute| Register Here
With the 2020 election looming amidst a trend of U.S. disengagement with Europe, both the American presidency and the future of Europe are on the ballot in November. What are the implications of the presidential election for the trans-Atlantic relationship and for U.S. foreign policy toward Europe? Would a second Trump administration follow through on threats to abandon the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), leaving Europeans to their own devices on matters of security and defense? Would a Biden administration seek to rebuild bridges with its European partners, reverting even partially to a pre-Trump conception of America’s role in the world? And how would a geo-political Europe react to these changes?
On October 5, the Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE) at Brookings will convene a panel discussion on the implications of the 2020 election for U.S. foreign policy, in particular toward Europe.
Speakers:
Célia Belin: Visiting Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
William A. Galston: Ezra K. Zilkha Chair and Senior Fellow – Governance Studies
Fiona Hill: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Thomas Wright, moderator: Director – Center on the United States and EuropeSenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Project on International Order and Strategy
3. Has Trumpian populism succeeded? | October 5, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | American Enterprise Institute | Register Here
The election of Donald Trump in 2016 brought a populist into the White House. With the president’s first term nearing completion, what is the verdict? Has populism been a force for good in economic policy during the Trump years? Will populism be a force for good in economic policy going forward? And what about populism on the political left?
University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan sees success, as described in his new book, “You’re Hired!: Untold Successes and Failures of a Populist President” (Republic Book Publishers, 2020). AEI economist Michael R. Strain has a different view, presented in his new book, “The American Dream Is Not Dead: (But Populism Could Kill It)” (Templeton Press, 2020). Join them to discuss.
Speakers:
Casey Mulligan: Professor in Economics, University of Chicago
James Pethokoukis: DeWitt Wallace Fellow, AEI
Michael R. Strain: Director of Economic Policy Studies, AEI
4. What Does the Taliban Want? | October 6, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EDT | Wilson Center | Register Here
Peace talks have begun between the Afghan government and the Taliban. One major question is how the Taliban, which is often vague about its goals beyond getting foreign troops out of Afghanistan, views key issues related to the peace process. This online-only event, organized by the Wilson Center’s Asia Program in partnership with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, will assess what we know–and don’t know–about the Taliban’s position on political systems, women’s rights, international terrorism, and its relationship with Pakistan; what this all may tell us about the Taliban’s future decisions and actions; and what the implications are for the peace process..
Speakers:
Ibraheem Bahiss: Independent Analyst
Malalai Bashir: Senior Journalist, Radio Azadi, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Afghan Service
Dr. Orzala Nemat: Director, Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit
Rahimullah Yusufzai: Resident Editor, The News International
Abraham Denmark: Director, Asia Program
Michael Kugelman, moderator: Deputy Director and Senior Associate for South Asia
5. Online Event: Supporting Marginalized Groups amid Lebanon’s Cascading Crises | October 6, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
Lebanon has been home to vulnerable communities for centuries, most recently becoming home to perhaps a million refugees fleeing the Syrian conflict. Now, as the country reels amid compounding economic, public health, and political crises, refugees join expatriate domestic workers and others among Lebanon’s most marginalized communities in facing heightened risk.
Sahar Atrache, Yasmin Kayali, and Banchi Yimer will join us for a discussion of the threats facing Lebanon’s most vulnerable communities, and what stakeholders can do to support and empower them. Throughout the event, participants are encouraged to submit questions to the guests and host, Jon B. Alterman, via the provided link.
Sahar Atrache is the senior advocate for the Middle East at Refugees International. Prior to joining Refugees International, Sahar was the senior advocacy officer at the Syrian American Medical Society (SAMS) and a senior analyst on the Middle East and North Africa at International Crisis Group.
Yasmin Kayali is the co-founder and CCO of Basmeh & Zeitooneh, a non-profit organization launched in 2012 that seeks to empower Syrians in exile to live lives of dignity. Basmeh & Zeitooneh designs and delivers effective relief, education, and livelihood and protection services to marginalized communities from six centers across Lebanon.
Banchi Yimer is a former domestic worker who lived in Lebanon for nearly a decade. Alongside fellow Ethiopian migrant workers, she founded Egna Legna (“Us for Ourselves”), a community-based organization working on migrant domestic workers’ issues and women’s issues in Lebanon and Ethiopia.
Speakers:
Sahar Atrache: Senior Advocate for the Middle East, Refugees International
Yasmin Kayali: Co-founder and CCO, Basmeh and Zeitooneh
Banchi Yimer: Founder and Director, Egna Legna
6. Public Opinion, Annexation, and Normalization: A 2020 Zogby Research Poll | October 7, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
In 2019 and 2020, Zogby Research Services polled in several Arab countries and Israel to assess attitudes on a number of topics related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Arab Peace Initiative, and the desirability of normalization before a final resolution of the conflict. The findings collected were surprising and instructive of a nuanced change in attitudes.
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a panel of experts to discuss the polling data and the potential implications they have on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Speakers:
Khaled Elgindy: Director, Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Lara Friedman: President, Foundation for Middle East Peace
James Zogby: Managing director, Zogby Research Services; founder and president, Arab American Institute
Paul Salem, moderator: President, MEI
7. Ten Years of Pan-Arab Protests: Understanding the New Dynamics of Change | October 7, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:15 PM EDT | Wilson Center | Register Here
In 2019 and early 2020, the Middle East and North Africa witnessed widespread protest movements in Algeria, Sudan, Lebanon, and Iraq marking a decade since the Arab uprisings started in 2010. As the COVID-19 pandemic spread, these movements largely subsided under strict, temporary lockdowns. However, the coronavirus exacerbated socioeconomic conditions and inequalities, thus provoking renewed street demonstrations in Lebanon and Iraq as well as other countries across the region such as Tunisia, Morocco and Jordan. As MENA governments grapple with the adverse economic impact of the pandemic and the deterioration of public services, more popular unrest is likely to erupt. In this timely discussion, former Wilson Fellow, analyst and journalist Rami Khouri, offers an in-depth comparative analysis of the 2019 protest movements in Algeria, Sudan, Lebanon and Iraq in dialogue with Middle East Program fellow Marina Ottaway and Bard College professor and Jadaliyya co-editor Ziad Abu Rish.
Speakers:
Rami Khouri: Former Public Policy Scholar; Director of Global Engagement, American University of Beirut, columnist, Agence Global Syndicate, USA, and The New Arab, London and Nonresident Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School
Marina Ottaway: Middle East Fellow, Former Senior Research Associate and Head of the Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ziad Abu-Rish: Co-Director, MA Program in Human Rights and the Arts, Bard College; Co-Editor, Jadaliyya
Merissa Khurma, moderator: Program Manager, Middle East Program
8. From the Sidelines of Nagorno-Karabakh: Georgia, Russia, and Turkey | October 7, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has faced its largest eruption of fighting since a 1994 ceasefire partially brokered by the United States. Previous escalations between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces have been smothered within a few days. However, the current hostilities continue to escalate and the possibility of a large scale war between the two states is becoming more likely. Russia has historically supported Armenia while maintaining close relations with both former Soviet republics. On the other hand, Turkey has announced its unconditional support of Azerbaijan and appears to be ready to provide military capabilities to the Azeris. Georgia has always maintained close neighborly relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan and now has expressed its willingness to facilitate a peaceful resolution.
What are the regional consequences of a full out war between Armenia and Azerbaijan? What role do Turkey, Russia, and Georgia play in the conflict? What are the factors that inhibit long-standing peace? Why does the conflict concern the United States?
Speakers:
Neil Hauer: Non-resident scholar, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
Victor Kipiani: Chair, Geocase
Maxim A. Suchkov: Non-resident scholar, Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program, MEI
Gonul Tol, moderator: Director of Turkey Program; senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
9. Lessons from Africa: Building Resilience through Community-Based Health Systems | October 8, 2020 | 9:30 – 11:00 AM EDT | Wilson Center | Register Here
COVID-19 has revealed shortcomings in the health systems of countries all over the world. In sub-Saharan Africa, the health crisis threatens to severely curtail already limited public health services and exacerbate fragility. Yet, despite immense hurdles, past crises have shown that innovative decision-making and locally-led interventions can go a long way in improving the resilience and responsiveness of health systems. Please join the Wilson Center, in partnership with the Population Institute, for a discussion with experts on the role of trust in enabling crisis response and how a more holistic approach to access to services in addition to healthcare, like girls’ education and maternal health, ultimately increases the resilience of at-risk communities.
Speakers:
Mohammed Abdulaziz: Head of Division, Disease Control and Prevention, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
Uzma Alam, PhD: Researcher, Africa Institute for Health Policy Foundation; Senior Program Officer, Africa Academy of Sciences
Juliet Nabyonga-Orem, PhD: Team Lead, Health Financing and Investment, Universal Health Coverage/Life Course Cluster, World Health Organization
Dr. Raj Panjabi: CEO, Last Mile Health; Assistant Professor of Medicine, Harvard Medical School and the Division of Global Health Equity at Brigham & Women’s Hospital
Ambassador Deborah R. Malac: Former U.S. Ambassador to Uganda and former U.S. Ambassador to Liberia; Career Foreign Service Officer, U.S. Department of State; Senior Fellow, Population Institute
Sarah B. Barnes, moderator:Project Director, Maternal Health Initiative
10. Can Teaching Students Real Debate Reduce Political Polarization? | October 9, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | Brookings Institute | Register Here
In the midst of a highly polarized election, with an already polarized electorate, it may seem there is little hope for bridging the deep divisions in American society.
Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow Robert Litan argues that teaching middle school and high school students the principles of competitive debate will make for more informed citizens and voters. Litan’s new book, “Resolved: How Debate Can Revolutionize Education and Help Save our Democracy,” makes the case for teaching middle school and high school students how to have reasoned debates where the participants use evidence and reason to constructively engage in civil discourse.
On October 9, Litan will be joined by Darrell West, vice president and director of Governance Studies at Brookings, and Norman Ornstein, AEI resident scholar, to explore how the principles of competitive debate can improve students’ lifelong work skills while making them more informed and demanding voters, and whether an engaged electorate will in turn change the way political candidates campaign for the better, improving–and maybe even saving–our democracy.
Speakers:
Robert E. Litan: Nonresident Senior Fellow – Economic Studies
Norm Ornstein: Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute
Darrell M. West: Vice President and Director – Governance Studies, Senior Fellow – Center for Technology Innovation
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Peace Picks | September 28 – October 2, 2020
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Political, Security, and Public Health Dimensions in the Horn of Africa | September 28, 2020 | 3:00 – 4:30 PM EDT | Brookings | Register Here
The Horn of Africa continues to face multiple challenges from persistent terrorism and militancy threats to significant global warming repercussions. A country of significant U.S. and international state-building and counterterrorism investments, Somalia continues to struggle with increasing al-Shabaab militancy, a security situation in which Ethiopia, Kenya, and other members of the African Union Mission in Somalia play important counterinsurgency roles. Yet Somalia and Ethiopia are also undergoing large and challenging political transitions. Ethiopia, too, faces the rise of escalating intra-ethnic tensions and political violence. The entire region has become a place of difficult competition among regional and great powers. Layered over these issues, the coronavirus pandemic has devastated local economies, exacerbating already high levels of poverty. Moreover, it has further destabilized fragile, fractious, and explosive political processes.
On September 28, the Africa Security Initiative at Brookings will hold a panel discussion to explore these complex and overlapping issues. The panel will feature Director of Programmes of the United Nations University’s Centre for Policy Research Adam Day, Brookings Senior Fellow Vanda Felbab-Brown, United States Institute of Peace Senior Advisor Payton Knopf, Institute for Security Studies Senior Researcher Allan Ngari, and Brookings Nonresident Fellow Zach Vertin. Brookings Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon will moderate the discussion.
Speakers:
Adam Day: Director of Programmes – Centre for Policy Research, United Nations University
Vanda Felbab-Brown: Co-Director – Africa Security InitiativeSenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence
Payton Knopf: Senior Advisor – United States Institute of Peace
Allan Ngari: Senior Researcher, Complex Threats in Africa Programme – Institute for Security Studies
Zach Vertin: Nonresident Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence
Michael E. O’Hanlon (moderator): Director of Research – Foreign PolicyCo-Director, Security and StrategySenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and IntelligenceThe Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair
2. 2020 Election Integrity and Foreign Interference | September 29, 2020 | 3:00 PM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
As part of our Interference 2020 effort, please join the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) on September 29 from 3:00 – 4:00 pm ET for a timely discussion of recent allegations of foreign interference in the 2020 election. The event will be opened by Craig Newmark, who has worked to uplift journalism in the face of disinformation, as well as connect efforts working to counter destabilizing foreign interference. The discussion will feature POLITICO’s Natasha Bertrand and David Sanger of the New York Times on their experience covering foreign interference ahead of the election and their process when assessing credibility of interference claims and attribution.
The DFRLab will also launch the Foreign Interference Attribution Tracker, an open-source database that captures allegations of foreign interference in U.S. elections. This event will offer a first look at the tool which is intended to build public attribution standards, provide an independent and reliable record of foreign interference in the 2020 election, serve as a resource for stakeholders about the evolving threat, and help to build public resilience against future efforts of foreign influence and disinformation.
Disinformation poses an existential threat to the future of American democracy. Nowhere is this more evident than in the question of foreign interference: a phenomenon which is heavily dependent on the spread of disinformation, yet which is also increasingly the subject of it. Over the past nine months, numerous U.S. officials, agencies, technology companies, and civil society organizations have identified instances of foreign disinformation campaigns and social media manipulation—often using drastically different standards of evidence to make their case.
We hope you will join us online and in the effort ahead of U.S. elections.
Speakers:
Craig Newmark: Founder: Craigslist, Craig Newmark Philanthropies
David Sanger: National Security Correspondent, New York Times
Natasha Bertrand: National Security Correspondent, POLITICO
Emerson Brooking: Resident Fellow, Digital Forensics Research Lab
Graham Brookie: Director and Managing Editor, Digital Forensics Research Lab
3. Domestic Terrorism and the U.S. Presidential Election | September 30, 2020 | 1:30 – 2:30 PM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
Please join the CSIS Transnational Threats Project and Defending Democratic Institutions Project on Wednesday, September 30, 2020 at 1:30pm to discuss the domestic terrorism threat in the United States before, during, and after the 2020 presidential election. The panel will examine the domestic terrorism threat landscape; the role of security and law enforcement; the use and misuse of military force, including legal provisions governing violence mitigation; the spread of extremism on digital platforms; and the role of foreign actors.
Seth Jones, CSIS Harold Brown Chair and Director of the Transnational Threats Project and Suzanne Spaulding, Senior Adviser for Homeland Security to the International Security Program will be joined by Brian Michael Jenkins, Senior Adviser to the RAND President, RAND as well as Cathy Lanier, Senior Vice President, Chief Security Officer, National Football League (NFL), and former Chief of Police, Metropolitan Police Department of the District of Columbia.
Speakers:
Brian Michael Jenkins: Senior Adviser to the RAND President, RAND
Cathy Lanier: Senior Vice President, Chief Security Officer, National Football League (NFL); and former Chief of Police, Metropolitan Police Department of the District of Columbia
4. Envisioning COVID-19’s Legacy on Global Stability and Security | September 30, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:00 PM EDT | American Enterprise Institute | Register Here
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has taken lives, devastated the world economy, and threatened the fabric of politics around the world. As Henry Kissinger warned, “The coronavirus epidemic will forever alter the world order.” So what will a post-COVID-19 world order look like? In their new book, “COVID-19 and World Order” (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2020), AEI’s Hal Brands and Francis Gavin of Johns Hopkins University convened leading experts in policy, economics, governance, international security, medicine, and technology to consider the international aftermath of the pandemic.
Please join AEI’s Hal Brands, Kori Schake, and Colin Dueck for a panel discussion with Elizabeth Economy and Francis Gavin to examine COVID-19’s legacy on global stability and security.
Speakers:
Hal Brands: Resident Scholar, AEI
Elizabeth C. Economy: Senior Fellow for China Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
Francis J. Gavin: Director of Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Kori Schake: Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, AEI
Colin Dueck: Visiting Scholar, AEI
5. The Future of US Policy in Afghanistan | September 30, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | Brookings | Register Here
Over the course of the past 19 years of war in Afghanistan, successive American presidents and presidential candidates have promised to make ending the war and bringing troops home a priority. While the U.S.-Taliban deal signed in February and the intra-Afghan peace talks that began earlier this month in Doha offer a path toward complete U.S. withdrawal, the talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government will be long and difficult and a successful deal between the two parties is far from guaranteed. Questions also remain regarding whether the Taliban did indeed cut off ties with al-Qaida, as outlined in the U.S.-Taliban deal.
On September 30, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a virtual event to assess political and security developments in Afghanistan, U.S. interests in the country, and foreign policy options for the next administration to pursue.
Viewers can submit questions via email to events@brookings.edu or via Twitter at #Policy2020.
Policy 2020 events aim to empower voters with fact-based, data-driven, non-partisan information so they can better understand the policy matters discussed in the 2020 election.
Speakers:
Madiha Afzal: Assistant Professor, School of Public Policy – David M. Rubenstein Fellow: Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Center for Middle East Policy
Vanda Felbab-Brown: Co-Director – Africa Security InitiativeSenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence
Michael O’Hanlon: Director of Research – Foreign PolicyCo-Director, Security and StrategySenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and IntelligenceThe Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair
6. Turning Black to Green | September 30, 2020 | 17:00—18:00 EEST (UTC+3) | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
While September 2020 marks 100 years since the Proclamation of the State of Greater Lebanon, the country today is plagued by a myriad of crises. This may prove a critical inflection point for Lebanon as a whole. The Carnegie Middle East Center and Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung are hosting a four-part series of panel discussions, which will look at where Lebanon stands on its Centennial, as well as the opportunities and challenges for the new century.
Lebanon is endowed with a rich and diverse national ecosystem, and has the potential and responsibility to fight pollution and deforestation, while investing in green spaces and clean energy. Moving forward, how can Lebanon ensure that the environment does not take a back seat in its national priorities, given the many other pressing issues facing the country today?
Join us on Tuesday, September 29 from 5:00-6:00 p.m. Beirut (GMT+3) for this fourth panel discussion on Lebanon’s environmental concerns and potential. The event will be held in English. Viewers may submit their questions via the Live Chat feature on YouTube during the livestream.
Speakers:
Ziad Abi Chaker: CEO of Cedar Environmental.
Marc Ayoub: research assistant with the Energy Policy and Security department at the American University of Beirut.
Nada Ghorayeb Zarour: former president of the Lebanese Green Party and the current head of its Arbitration Council.
Dalal Mawad: award-winning journalist and senior MENA video producer and correspondent with the Associated Press.
7. Regional Expansionism: Iran’s Militias in the Levant | October 1, 2020 | 1:00 PM EDT | Atlantic Council| Register Here
The United States’ policy towards Iran is one of the most contentious foreign policy issues currently dividing Democrats and Republicans in the 2020 election season. While containing Iran’s nuclear activity is a priority for both parties, it remains unclear how either one plans to deal with Iranian-backed militias, which remain a threat to lasting stability in the Middle East and a danger to America and its allies’ national security interests.
Speakers:
Joel Rayburn:Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Levant and Special Envoy for Syria, US Department of State
Michael B. Herzog: Milton Fine International Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Ariane Tabatabai: Middle East Fellow, Alliance for Securing Democracy, The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Hamdi Malik: Middle East Analyst; Contributor, Iran International TV; Al-Monitor
Navvar Saban: Conflict Analyst and Expert; Nonresident Researcher, Omran Center for Strategic Studies; Orsam Center
8. Election 2020 U.S. Foreign Policy Forum | October 1, 2020 | 3:00 PM EDT | Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
Between the first and second presidential debates, please join us for a discussion of the foreign policy challenges awaiting the winner of the 2020 election and the critical issues for Americans to consider as they cast their vote this November.
This event is free and open to all. To register, please sign up on the Eventbrite page. Zoom access instructions will be emailed to registrants on the evening of Wednesday, September 30.
Speakers:
Reuben E. Brigety II: Vice-Chancellor and President, University of the South; Former U.S. Representative to the African Union and U.S. Permanent Representative to the UN Economic Commission for Africa (2013–2015)
Richard N. Haass: President, Council on Foreign Relations; Former Special Assistant to President George H.W. Bush (1989–1993)
Jami Miscik: CEO and Vice Chairman, Kissinger Associates, Inc.; Former Co-Chair, President’s Intelligence Advisory Board (2014–2017); Former Deputy Director of Intelligence, CIA (2002–2005)
Frances Fragos Townsend: Vice Chairman, General Counsel, and Chief Administration Officer, MacAndrews & Forbes Incorporated; Former Assistant to President George W. Bush for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism and Chair, Homeland Security Council (2004–2008)
Juju Chang: Co-anchor, Nightline, ABC News
9. Overcoming Polarization in Ukraine | October 2, 2020 | 10:00 AM EDT | Atlantic Council| Register Here
Since Ukraine first gained independence in 1991, historical memory and national identity have been a point of contention and subject for manipulation. Thanks in good part to Kremlin aggression, a real sense of Ukrainian identity has emerged in the center and east of the country, too. Yet, the memory war that has characterized Ukraine for the past three decades has not disappeared. And it has been exacerbated by Kremlin disinformation campaigns. The Kremlin has inflamed controversy over historical narratives, weaponizing history in the unsuccessful effort to undermine Ukrainian statehood. A groundbreaking recent report by the London School of Economics and Political Science’s (LSE) Arena program, From ‘Memory Wars’ to a Common Future: Overcoming Polarisation in Ukraine, outlines the scope of challenges facing Ukraine’s information environment along with comprehensive recommendations for reducing societal polarization.
Speakers:
Anne Applebaum: Director, Arena, LSE
Natalia Gumenyuk: Co-founder, Public Interest Journalism Lab
Peter Pomerantsev: Visiting Senior Fellow, Institute of Global Affairs, LSE
Yevhen Hlibovytsky: Founder, ProMova
Ambassador John Herbst: Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
10. Disinformed Democracy: The Past, Present, and Future of Information Warfare | October 2, 2020 | 9:15 AM – 1:0 PM EDT | Brookings | Register Here
In 2016, Russian operatives waged an information war, including cyberattacks and inauthentic social media campaigns, designed to stoke political divisions and undermine the U.S. presidential election. Before they became front-page news, Russian influence operations had existed for decades. But in recent years, a range of domestic and international factors — in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere — have spotlighted the dangers of information manipulation campaigns, which now threaten the 2020 election. These drivers, alongside a rapidly evolving information technology and communications landscape, necessitate innovative policy ideas and a whole-of-society approach to protect democratic societies.
On October 2, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a virtual conference to examine the past, present, and future of disinformation and efforts to combat it. Following welcome remarks by Brookings President John R. Allen, Brookings Senior Fellow Fiona Hill and former National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster will frame the event with a conversation on McMaster’s new book, “Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World.” Then, Hill and Brookings Fellow and Deputy Director of the Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative Chris Meserole will moderate three panel discussions on the history of Russian influence operations leading up to 2016, the domestic factors that contribute to disinformation and other threats to democracy, and novel strategies for combatting information warfare in the future.
Speakers and Schedule:
Welcome remarks
John Allen: President – The Brookings Institution
Opening conversation: How disinformation threatens world order
H.R. McMaster: Former U.S. National Security Advisor, Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow – Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Fiona Hill: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Panel 1: The road to Russian interference in 2016
Catherine Belton: Special Correspondent – Reuters
Arkady Ostrovsky: Russia and Eastern Europe Editor – The Economist
Thomas Rid: Professor of Strategic Studies – Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
David Shimer: Global Fellow – Woodrow Wilson International Center for ScholarsAssociate Fellow – Yale University
Fiona Hill: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and
Panel 2: Domestic drivers of disinformation
Renee DiResta: Research Manager – Stanford Internet Observatory
Elaine Kamarck: Founding Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies
Kate Starbird: Associate Professor, Human Centered Design & Engineering – University of Washington
Chris Meserole: Deputy Director – Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative, Fellow – Foreign Policy
Panel 3: Novel strategies for countering information warfare
Eileen Donahoe: Executive Director – Global Digital Policy Incubator, Stanford University; Former U.S. Ambassador – United Nations Human Rights Council
Thomas Kent: Adjunct Associate Professor of International and Public Affairs – Columbia University
Daniel Kimmage: Principal Deputy Coordinator, Global Engagement Center – U.S. Department of State
Teija Tiilikainen: Director – European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE)
Fiona Hill: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
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