Tag: Lebanon
Lebanon was Already in Crisis
Please Note: This piece was written prior to the August 4th explosion. Since then, the crisis in Lebanon has only worsened. Protests are re-invigorated, and the cabinet resigned.
Lebanon is at a critical juncture. Its economy is in shambles and many of its inhabitants are impoverished, unemployed, and/or hungry. In October 2019, a protest movement emerged in Lebanon, calling for the implementation of social and political reforms. The movement has achieved little success and, unfortunately, the crisis has only worsened in recent months.
In light of this situation, the Middle East Institute (MEI) and the American Task Force for Lebanon (ATFL) launched a joint study outlining the necessary steps that both Lebanon and the United States must take to resolve the crisis. The two published a policy paper, Recommendations for a Stable Bilateral Relationship, in July. On July 14, MEI and the ATFL convened a panel to discuss their findings. Speakers and their affiliations are listed below.
Jean AbiNader: Policy Director, American Task Force for Lebanon
Congressman Darin LaHood: Congressman, Illinois’ 18th District
Paul Raphael: Founding Chair, Lebanese International Finance Executives
Mona Yacoubian: Senior Advisor to the Vice President for Middle East & Africa, U.S. Institute of Peace
Amb. Ed Gabriel: President & CEO, American Task Force for Lebanon
Paul Salem: President, Middle East Institute
Lebanon at a Crossroads
MEI President Paul Salem believes that the crisis in Lebanon is the result of decades of poor governance, characterized by fiscal mismanagement, debt accumulation, and severe budget deficits. Since the ratification of the Taif Agreement in 1989, Lebanese politics have been elite-dominated. Salem argues that Lebanon’s governing elites are responsible for the establishment of patronage systems and other corrupt networks, which have nearly bankrupted the country.
The present crisis is multi-dimensional, encompassing economic, social, and political issues. In brief, the national economy is contracting and the currency is deflating. Poverty, unemployment, and hunger are ubiquitous. The Lebanese government is increasingly unstable. Finally, there have been protests since October 2019. Salem believes that the protest movement holds promise, though the challenges it faces are immense. It must build consensus around one vision in order to more effectively advocate for change.
The situation has only been compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic. Lebanon’s currency, the Lebanese pound, experienced devaluation by more than 80% since October 2019. The inflation rate is approximately 55%, though some prices of food items has risen by 200%. The unemployment rate is 40%. Lebanon’s once-robust middle class is dwindling, and many Lebanese citizens have been thrust into poverty. Hunger is widespread, and acts of desperation, including suicide and lawlessness, are increasingly common. In Yacoubian’s words, Lebanon is “hurtling toward becoming a failed state.”
Under Prime Minister Hassan Diab, Paul Raphael feels that the government’s response has been “irresponsible and disturbing.” It has promised a great deal and done very little. Salem believes this is due to its relative lack of power and inability to execute reforms. Many panel-members thus question whether the current government has staying power. It may soon be replaced by a new, more legitimate government, one that will take a more serious approach to the crisis.
Lebanon’s Future
Without deliberate action to ameliorate the economic and social issues, there is a significant risk of state collapse. Lebanon’s stability has been guaranteed by its army and internal security forces. As salaries for soldiers and security officers dwindle, Salem fears that individuals will no longer be willing to work. If this occurs, Lebanon will again be dominated by militias, and that cantons will become the basis of political organization.
A failed state in the Eastern Mediterranean would be disastrous. Militant groups would likely enter its territory, threatening regional peace and stability. Collapse could trigger a large-scale refugee crisis. Lebanon already hosts more refugees per capita than any other state. In so doing, Yacoubian asserts, it provides “an international public good.” If refugees are forced to leave Lebanon, there will be a humanitarian crisis.
Even so, in the eyes of Representative Darin LaHood, the crisis in Lebanon is also “a moment of opportunity.” The United States can engage Lebanon and, in so doing, prevent state collapse. Before this can occur, the panel recommends that Lebanon’s government demonstrate a credible commitment to action and reform. Once these conditions are met, the United States can work with the United Nations’ International Support Group for Lebanon to strengthen the country’s social safety net and inject liquidity into the banking system.
To watch the event in full:
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Peace Picks | August 10 – August 14
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Breakthrough in Belarus: A Democratic Opening | August 11, 2020 | 10:00 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
After months of protests, Belarusians cast their votes on August 9 for the presidential election. The five-term president of Belarus, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, faces the most severe threat to his regime since he took power more than a quarter century ago. For months, protests erupted after opposition candidates were either imprisoned or disqualified. Undeterred by mass arrests and fines, opposition forces rallied against Lukashenka’s government and the immediate election results. Government-sponsored exit polls showing that President Lukashenka won 80 percent of the vote face broad claims of election fraud, triggering further protests and a heavy police crackdown.
The situation is further complicated by the arrest of alleged Russian operatives in Minsk, sparking wild speculation of foreign intervention. Will claims of interference by Lukashenka succeed in distracting the public, or will he use them as a pretext for a crackdown? Will the outcome of the election change Belarus’ politics? How will the results affect Belarus’ relations with Europe, Russia, and the United States? Can popular will bring about a genuinely democratic transition in spite of government crackdowns on dissent and free information?
Speakers:
Christian Caryl (Moderator): Editor, Washington Post
Konstantin Eggert: Columnist, Deutsche Welle
Natalia Kaliada: Co-Founding Artistic Director & CEO, Belarus Free Theatre
Hanna Liubakova: Journalist, Outriders
Franak Viacorka: Vice President, Digital Communications Network - Lebanon After the Explosion | August 11, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EST | Carnegie Endowment | Register Here
A massive explosion in Beirut shattered glass miles away, killing more than 100, wounding thousands, and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless. Now Lebanon finds itself in a severe political, economic, and humanitarian crisis. How can the people of Beirut rebuild their lives while still sheltering from a global pandemic? What are the immediate political and economic implications of this pivotal moment in Lebanese history, and what political change is necessary for true recovery to be possible?
Speakers:
Kim Ghattas: Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment
Maha Yahya: Director, Carnegie Middle East Center
Paul Salem: President, Middle East Institute
Ishac Diwan: Chaire d’Excellence, Université Paris Science et Lettres - President Tsai Ing-wen Discusses the Diplomatic, Security, and Economic Challenges Facing Taiwan | August 12, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM EST | Hudson Institute & Center for American Progress | Register Here
Join Hudson Institute and Center for American Progress for an address by Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen followed by a discussion with Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office Representative Bi-khim Hsiao, Hudson Senior Fellow Seth Cropsey, and Center for American Progress Vice President Kelly Magsamen.
In January of this year, President Tsai won reelection to a second term. Since then, Taiwan has controlled the spread of its coronavirus outbreak, assisted other countries in combatting the pandemic, and faced increasing aggression from the Chinese Communist Party.
President Tsai will discuss these developments and the security, diplomatic, and economic challenges that face Taiwan in her second term. The conversation following President Tsai’s remarks will incorporate themes from her speech and address current U.S. policy and assistance toward Taiwan.
Speakers:
President Tsai Ing-wen: President, Republic of China (Taiwan)
Bi-khim Hsiao: Representative, Taipei Economic & Cultural Office in the U.S.
Seth Cropsey: Director, Center for American Seapower, Hudson Institute
Kelly Magsamen: Vice President, National Security & International Policy, Center for American Progress
Neera Tanden: President & CEO, Center for American Progress
John Walters: COO, Hudson Institute - How ISIS Really Ends: The Road to Violent Extremist Disengagement & Reconciliation | August 12, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM EST | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
ISIS remains a threat to regional and global security despite its territorial defeat in March 2019. The enduring defeat of ISIS will require more work to address the aftermath of conflict and to rebuild the region’s social fabric to enable people to move forward sustainably and peacefully. Of immediate concern is what to do with former ISIS combatants and their families, and the massive needs for disengagement, repatriation, and reintegration.
With thousands of former ISIS combatants from over 50 countries detained in prisons across Syria and Iraq and countless women and children in displacement camps—with nearly 70,000 in al Hol alone—countries worldwide face the difficult task of what to do with these individuals and how best to prevent future security challenges.
Meanwhile, the global COVID-19 pandemic is impacting the health and safety of those in the prisons and camps, as well as the ability of foreign governments, humanitarian organizations, and camp and prison administrations to continue operations. ISIS adherents have capitalized on this disruption by staging prison breakouts. This combination of stresses provides for an especially complicated set of tasks for governments, local communities, and the international community.
Speakers:
Nancy Lindborg (Moderator): President & CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
Leanne Erdberg Steadman (Moderator): Director of Countering Violent Extremism, U.S. Institute of Peace
Amb. William “Bill” Roebuck: Deputy Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS; Senior Advisor to the Special Representative for Syria Engagement
Philippa Candler: Acting UNHCR Representative, Iraq
Maj. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich: Director of Operations, U.S. Central Command
Azadeh Moaveni: Project Director, Gender, International Crisis Group
Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr.: Commander, U.S. Central Command - Gen. John E. Hyten on Progress & Challenges Implementing the National Defense Strategy | August 12, 2020 | 12:00 – 12:45 PM EST | Hudson Institute | Register Here
Join Hudson Institute for a discussion with Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General John E. Hyten on the Department of Defense’s progress in implementing the National Defense Strategy and remaining challenges. Hudson Senior Fellow Rebeccah L. Heinrichs will moderate the discussion.
Amid an ongoing pandemic, the United States is faced with a broad ranges of security challenges. Responding to the long-term threat posed by China and Russia continues to be the greatest animating force of U.S. defense policy. However, the U.S. faces other serious threats from terrorist groups and rogue states like North Korea and Iran.
General Hyten will describe how the National Defense Strategy is guiding major power competition and working to mitigate and defeat lesser threats.
How has the strategy affected force size, strategy, and deployments? What role do alliances play in achieving the priorities laid out in the national defense strategy? Are we moving at the right speed to develop and produce at scale the kinds of weapon systems we need?
General Hyten will answer these and other questions as he outlines accomplishments and the remaining work ahead.
Speakers:
Gen. John E. Hyten: Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Rebeccah L. Heinrichs: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute - Drug Trafficking and Use in Libya & North Africa | August 14, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EST | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
The trafficking and consumption of illicit drugs both within and through Libya are often overlooked as factors in the country’s fragile situation. But the dynamics of illicit drug trading and use in Libya are just one manifestation of the rising drug challenge faced by North African states. Production, trafficking, and consumption are increasing and transforming across the region, posing a rising challenge to stability, security, and public health in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya.
Join USIP and the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) for a presentation of recently published research on drug issues in the region. USIP experts will discuss their research on drug trafficking and consumption in Libya, while GI-TOC experts will analyze trends in the Maghreb as a whole. The event will bring together policymakers and practitioners to explore the dynamics of these issue areas and what can be done to deal with the harmful effects while mitigating harm to communities.
Speakers:
Nate Wilson (Moderator): Libya Country Manager, U.S. Institute of Peace
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Lebanon’s prospects
Middle East Institute colleagues Paul Salem and Randa Slim, both Americans of Lebanese origins, review what has happened in Beirut, the immediate reaction, and the longer-term prospects:
I am skeptical of positive change at the political top. I picture a lot of ways this goes wrong.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Dear Lebanese friends,
I am praying you and your families are all safe after the horrendous explosion yesterday. Lebanon faced even before this tragic event a truly daunting set of challenges. Now the political system, governance, the economy, the environment, the health system, and the society will be tested even more.
I know you as clever, devoted, and patriotic people. Wherever you live now you maintain strong attachments to Lebanon and try to help its people and society come to terms with their many difficulties. I admire your efforts and hope that this incident will bring out the best in both the Lebanese who live in Lebanon and its far-flung diaspora.
You are of many faiths and traditions, which in my view is a great strength. You will need cohesion to face the future, which will pose much greater challenges in the months to come than the immediate effects of the explosion yesterday. You will need help from abroad, which should not be denied. And you will need a spirit of devotion and solidarity not only among yourselves but extending also to others who have profited from Beirut in so many different ways.
My condolences to the bereaved, best wishes for quick and complete recovery to the wounded, and hopes to all of you for repair of your wounded spirits. In my tradition, we talk of obligations to tikkun olam (repair of the world) and gemilut chasadim (acts of loving kindness). May you be the recipients of both, having given so much of both to others.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
What Lebanon needs
“Lebanon is going through one of the most acute crises in its modern history. A complex economic collapse is driving hundreds of thousands into poverty and the risk of hunger, and shuttering an already wounded economy. A large cross section of the population revolted in October of last year and has created a standoff with a corrupt and sectarian oligarchy. The government is unable to chart and implement a way out of the crisis, and state institutions stand on the brink of failure. The multiple crises have threatened all sectors, including the critical education sector, previously one of the success stories of the country; universities, like other institutions, have been hard hit.” On July 10, 2020, the Middle East Institute hosted an online discussion on possibilities for a way forward in Lebanon. The event was moderated by Paul Salem and featured three speakers:
Ishac Diwan: Chairperson, Socio-économie du Monde Arabe, Paris Sciences et Lettres
Fadlo Khuri: President, the American University of Beirut
Maya Yahya: Director, the Carnegie Middle East Center, Beirut
Paul Salem (Moderator): President, Middle East Institute
Economics
The beginnings of the Lebanese economic collapse can be traced back to 2016. Diwan believes that although the Lebanese political elite knew the needed economic reforms, they did not implement them. Now nine months into the current Hassan Diab-led government, Lebanon remains plagued by inaction on the part of its leaders. To stabilize the economic situation, Diwan recommends:
1. Reduction of the source of the problem—less government deficit and less corruption
2. Devaluation of the Lebanese pound
3. Reduction of debt to make the state credit worthy
4. Restructuring of the banking sector
5. Dissolution of losses in a socially acceptable manner
To Diwan, the only way to stop this economic collapse right now, without deep structural reform, would be to starve the economy of cash until credible reforms bring back confidence.
Politics
Yahya highlights that the October 17 revolution movement remains at an impasse. Today, different groups have begun to organize themselves as nascent political parties. More recently, increasing initiatives for the formation of a coherent government able to pass real economic reform have occurred. Going forward, Yahya believes it remains crucial that these coalitions present a unified front capable of challenging the current political elite. Yahya also recommends the continuation of street protests to further voice popular dismay.
Education
Khuri warns that higher education in Lebanon continues to endure an acute crisis. As the president of the American University of Beirut, Khuri includes his institution in this determination. Since the opening of the airport in Beirut, many of those who are regarded as the “pillars” of Lebanon– doctors, lawyers, engineers, and artists– have fled the country. Khuri predicts many universities in Beirut will be forced to close due to the current economic climate. Going forward, the government must invest in the higher education of its citizens. Hope for the end of the current crisis lays in the hands of Lebanon’s educated youth.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Peace Picks | July 13 – July 17, 2020
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- COVID-19 in the Middle East: An Opportunity to Improve Public Health? | July 13, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed fault lines in public health systems in the Middle East, where public health institutions vary widely. In Gulf states, citizens receive high quality health care, but the same is not true of foreign worker populations. Middle income countries in the region offer good health services to those who can afford them, while those who cannot have less or no access. In countries like Yemen and in Syria’s worn torn towns, nothing resembling a functioning health system, public or private, exists. The difficulty of supplying health services to refugees and displaced persons presents yet more difficulties. All this is not new, but the COVID crisis has afforded an opportunity to examine how access to health care plays out in a crisis. More importantly, the crisis can help guide domestic policymakers and international partners toward immediate and longer-term actions to improve public health delivery and prepare for the next crisis.
The Rafik Hariri Center and the United Nations Development Program’s Regional Bureau for Arab States are pleased to co-host a virtual discussion with experts who will not only discuss why the response to the pandemic has met with varying degrees of success, but will also address how policymakers and other stakeholders can better confront public health challenges of all kinds.
Speakers:
Dr. Adel Abdellatif: Deputy Regional Director, Regional Bureau for Arab States, United Nations Development Program
Dr. Lina AbiRafeh: Executive Director, Arab Institute for Women
Dr. Ali Mokdad: Director of Middle Eastern Initiatives and Professor of Global Health, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington - The United States, Russia, and China in the Time of Pandemic | July 13, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM EST | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
The United States’ unipolar moment in the world—if it ever truly existed—is long gone. Instead the United States confronts a rising China and resentful Russia, both determined to check, if not roll back, U.S. influence regionally and globally. The pandemic will reinforce these trends and likely usher in a period of even greater competition and tension.
How should the United States respond to overt and covert challenges from Moscow and Beijing? And how important is growing strategic China-Russia cooperation on economic and security in this equation? Competition and tension seem all but inevitable, pushed forward by the domestic drivers of foreign policy. But are there prospects for détente or even meaningful episodic cooperation between the United States, China, and Russia on the issues that divide them?
Speakers:
Evan A Feigenbaum: Vice President for Studies, Carnegie Endowment
Eugene Rumer: Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment
Susan Thornton: Senior Fellow, Yale Law School
Aaron David Miller: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment - COVID-19’s Economic Impact on Women | July 13, 2020 | 4:00 PM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
COVID-19 is a crisis like no other – and it is having a calamitous effect on women’s economic well-being. Please join the Atlantic Council for a conversation on how the coronavirus is disproportionately impacting women’s earning and income and worsening economic inequality around the world. Our experts will look at how COVID-19 is devastating women’s employment and entrepreneurship, as well exacerbating workplace and household challenges such as education, wage gaps, informality, childcare and domestic violence. During the panel the experts will discuss how policy options or business practices could mitigate these adverse consequences and promote greater gender equality as nations recover and rebuild.
Speakers:
Gina E. Wood (Welcoming Remarks): Vice President, Foundational & Institutional Giving, Atlantic Council
Raj Kumar (Moderator): President & Editor-in-Chief, Devex
Ambassador Kelley E. Currie: Ambassador-at-Large for Global Women’s Issues, U.S. Department of State
Dr. Nicole Goldin: Senior Fellow, Global Business & Economics PRogram, Atlantic Council
Henriette Kolb: Head, Gender Secretariat, International Finance Corporation, World Bank - Status and Priorities for Lebanon’s Political Transition | July 14, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Lebanon is on the brink of collapse due to its domestic economic and political crises, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Another failed state in the Middle East would negatively impact strategic US interests. Lebanon requires a thorough reorientation towards stability and renewed socio-economic sustainability, which entails fundamental domestic reforms and targeted international support led by the US. The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the American Task Force for Lebanon (ATFL) are pleased to co-host the public launch of a joint policy paper, Recommendations for a Sustainable Bilateral Relationship.
What are the strategic interests the US has in Lebanon’s stability, and how can the US support Lebanese prosperity? Is the Lebanese government’s new financial recovery plan sufficient for the US to initiate support for the government? In what ways can the US best support a strong future for Lebanon?
Speakers:
Ambassador Edward Gabriel (Co-Moderator): President & CEO, American Task Force for Lebanon
Paul Salem (Co-Moderator): President, Middle East Institute
Jean AbiNader: Policy Director, American Task Force for Lebanon
Congressman Darin LaHood: U.S. House of Representatives, Illinois’ 18th District
Paul Raphael: Founding Chair, Lebanese International Finance Executives
Mona Yacoubian: Senior Advisor to the Vice President of Middle East & Africa, United States Institute of Peace - Election Integrity & Security in the Era of COVID-19 | July 17, 2020 | 2:00 – 4:15 PM EST | Brookings Institution | Register Here
The threats that disinformation and foreign interference in U.S. elections pose are not new phenomena. In 2016, Russian interference exposed critical vulnerabilities in the United States’ digital election infrastructure, and its information operations sowed political divisions across America. Now, modifications to democratic processes due to the coronavirus pandemic make the task of safeguarding the integrity and security of the 2020 presidential election even more crucial.
How will inevitable adjustments to voting practices, due to COVID-19, affect the security of U.S. elections? What measures should we pursue to dissuade our adversaries from attempting to interfere? Are we adequately prepared to counter new tactics, techniques, and procedures they might employ? And what can the federal government do to ensure that every state and county has the means to conduct a fair and secure election?
Speakers:
Keynote
Christopher C. Krebs: Director, Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency, U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Panel 1: Safeguarding Election Security
Fiona Hill (Moderator): Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings Institution
David Becker: Executive Director, Center for Election Innovation & Research, Brookings Institution
Mark Harvey: Former Special Assistant to the President & Senior Director for Resilience Policy, National Security Council
Susan Hennessey: Senior Fellow, Governance Studies, Brookings Institution
Panel 2: Adapting to New Disinformation Tactics
Chris Meserole (Moderator): Deputy Director, Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative, Brookings Institution
David Agranovich: Global Threat Disruption Lead, Facebook
Alina Polyakova: President & CEO, Center for European Policy Analysis, Brookings Institution
Laura Rosenberger: Senior Fellow & Director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy, German Marshall Fund of the United States
Gavin Wilde: Senior Analyst, Department of Defense
RSS - Posts
