Tag: Libya
My Libya, the video version
I was on C-Span’s Washington Journal this morning discussing Libya. Here is the video. I don’t watch, but I hope you will!
Here’s an extra treat, a piece done by the local CBS affiliate channel 9:
And just arrived, a surprise extra from the BBC.
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“Not ready for prime time”
That was the response of an unnamed former aide to Senator McCain to Governor Romney’s botched reaction to the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi. Romney would have done better to crib from the tweet of the new prime minister of Libya, @MustafaAG:
I condemn these barbaric acts in the strongest possible terms. This is an attack on America, Libya and free people everywhere.
The question is not whether Romney is now ready to be commander-in-chief, but whether he is capable of getting ready. I don’t see much evidence of that. His insensitivities are legion: the denigration of Great Britain’s preparations for the Olympics, his attributing lack of success to Palestinian culture, his telling poor students they should borrow money from their parents to start a business, his mention of a possible need to sell stock to meet financial obligations when he was a student, his failure to mention U.S. troops fighting in Afghanistan during his convention speech, his touting of the successful Salt Lake City Olympics without ever mentioning the Federal funding that helped him save the day. Those are just the items I remember off the top of my head. This is a guy who simply does not have the experience needed to empathize with others and understand how others will view him.
This should not be surprising. Romney has lived in a wealthy and protected bubble all his life. He really could borrow lots of money from his father, unlike many Americans. He has never lacked resources. Even as a young missionary in Paris, he lived well and was regarded as a candidate for president. He has not much needed the good opinion of others. He cultivates it by switching his positions to suit the audience, tying himself in knots over whether he does or does not support Obamacare, for example.
I wouldn’t be the first to suggest that Romney has already flubbed the 3 am phone call test. But it is much worse than that. He fails the breakfast, lunch and dinner tests as well. The pundits like to suggest that President Obama is more “likable,” as if that is a small thing. It is not. If Americans can’t picture themselves enjoying a beer with Romney and don’t believe he understands their problems, how can they elect him?
The Romney campaign seems to have wound itself up to challenge Obama on everything. They are pretty close to challenging him effectively on nothing. I had a debate last night on whether he was the Michael Dukakis or the John Kerry of the Republican party. That is not winning company to find yourself in.
Of course the election isn’t tomorrow, and things could change. So I’ll reserve final judgment and stick for now with “not ready for prime time,” yet.
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Death in Benghazi
The murder of four U.S. officials in Benghazi yesterday will anger Americans, adding to the cycle of resentment that began with posting on the internet in the United States of a film offensive to Muslims. The United States and NATO saved Benghazi from Muammar Qaddafi’s homicidal intentions. Riot and murder, Americans will think, is no way to show gratitude.
I’ve been in Benghazi twice in the past year, once in September 2011 and again in July 2012. I did not spend my time with the upper echelons. I never met Ambassador Chris Stevens. I walked and talked with people in the street, in polling places, at the drug store, in the market places, in restaurants, at airline ticket counters, at political party offices–anywhere I could find indigenous voices. The Libyans were warm and welcoming, especially after learning that I was an American. During my first trip, I had to duck a few hugs on the street. I’m not the huggy type.
My impression is that most Libyans would agree that America saved them from Qaddafi’s worst instincts. It is not most Libyans who attacked the consulate in Benghazi (or the embassy in Egypt) yesterday. It is a self-selected few. It is also a self-selected few people in America who make anti-Muslim films.
The difference is clear: the right to make offensive films is protected in the United States; there is no right to use violence either in the United States or in Libya. The U.S. government cannot block the making of films, but both the U.S. and Libyan governments are obligated to block and prosecute violent acts.
By all reports, Chris Stevens is a big loss to Libya as well as to the United States. He was a mainstay of international support to the Libyan revolution. I know nothing about his three colleagues killed, but my 21 years of experience in the U.S. Foreign Service tell me the odds are high that they too were credits to their homeland and assets to Libya as well. I did meet our young Consul in Benghazi in July. I am praying for his safety (the names of two of those killed have not been released yet).
These deaths are likely to have an out-sized impact on American relations with Libya as well as the security posture of American diplomatic posts worldwide. This is unfortunate. Our understandable reaction will be to pull our people back into the fortresses we call embassies and consulates, and strengthen their perimeter defenses. That degrades our interactions with the countries in which we are stationed. Nor is there real safety in that direction, as rockets, mortars and rocket-propelled grenades can breach even high and thick walls.
The right approach is to lean more heavily on host governments to provide security. Accounts of the demonstrations in Benghazi and Cairo yesterday suggest less diligence than the Libyan and Egyptian governments are obligated to provide. We would also do ourselves a favor by reducing our excessive numbers of officials stationed abroad and by working more anonymously, but those are subjects for another day.
Today we should mourn those who died, condemn those who killed them, and insist that those who have benefited from American support exert control over the extremists who discredit their revolutions.
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A good idea
It is difficult to imagine a good reason for the persistence of the Nonaligned Movement, which will hold a summit meeting beginning tomorrow in Tehran. Its website does not appear to have been updated since the early years of the century, so it is hard to understand what it thinks it is doing. Hosted by Supreme Leader Khamenei, the week’s meeting will include distinguished representatives like Sudanese war crimes indictee President Bashir, Zimbabwean President Mugabe, Venezuelan President Chavez and North Korean President of the Supreme People’s Assembly Kim Yong Nam. It’s a wonder Bashar al Assad is not planning to attend.
Of course there are also other, far more reputable attendees: the Tunisian, Libyan and South African Foreign Ministers, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Australian UN ambassador (hard for me to understand what is non-aligned about Australia). And, most notably, newly elected Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi.
If anything good might come out of such a meeting, I imagine it would come from the interaction of these democratic and would-be democratic states with the startling array of autocrats. I can hope that there is at least a bit of private criticism, as in “Robert, do you think it is in the interest of Zimbabwe that you continue to hold on to power?” Or “Hugo, tell me how you are doing in the polls.” But there is a real risk that such a conclave will be seen in some parts of the world as validating the legitimacy of the autocrats and undermining the citizens who oppose them.
That’s where National Iranian American President Trita Parsi’s idea comes in. He tweeted today that Morsi should meet with Green Movement leaders in Tehran, those brave souls who contested the 2009 presidential election as not free and unfair only to find themselves outgunned, outmaneuvered, beaten and defeated in the streets. A call on Mir-Hossein Mousavi, just returned to house arrest from a stay in the hospital, is one possibility. Or a visit with younger activists. Morsi, the product of successful street protests and a serious (if not perfect) election, should want to hear from Iranian protesters, unless he has already switched to his predecessor’s mentality, as the New York Times suggests.
But why only Morsi? He will be reluctant to do it alone, as he will not want to offend the hosts and put at risk whatever improvement in relations with Tehran he hopes to initiate. Better if the whole lot of more serious democratic leaders announce their willingness to meet with the Green Movement and others who are not on good terms with the Iranian regime, which claims it is not repressive.
I am not at all sure whether any Iranians would dare accept the invitation, as the consequences for them could be dramatic (and some Green Movement leaders are under house arrest). But that doesn’t mean the idea is a bad one. It would at least signal to the host that its more democratic “non-aligned” friends know what is going on. And it would signal to the Green Movement that the democratic world knows their plight and sympathizes with it.
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Eid mubarak!
Today and tomorrow mark the end of the month of Ramadan, when Muslims fast during the day. Tonight and tomorrow night they feast.
It has been a truly terrible Ramadan in Syria, where Kofi Annan’s peace plan has died (along with thousands of additional Syrians) and the Asad regime has intensified military action, especially in Aleppo. Prospects are not good: Asad refuses to step aside and the opposition refuses to negotiate with him. We are not yet at Bill Zartman’s “mutually hurting stalemate,” when both sides see no gain in continuing to fight and decide instead to talk.
Egypt has taken another unexpected turn, with elected President Morsy taking over by decree the executive and legislative powers that the military had previously reserved for itself. He did it with savoir faire: previous military leaders were retired with medals and new ones chosen from just below them. It is impossible to escape the conclusion that the Muslim Brotherhood, from which Morsy hails, and the military have reached a mutual accommodation, leaving Egypt’s secular revolutionaries out in the cold, which isn’t very refreshing in Egypt at this time of year.
In Libya, Tunisia and Yemen, the revolutions are looking a lot better. Libya‘s General National Congress, elected July 7, convened on schedule and chose as President Magarief, who promises to be a unifying figure. Tunisia is struggling to produce a constitution, with final approval delayed at least to April 2013 rather than October 2012. Yemen has made a start with military reform and is now embarking on preparations for its national dialogue, to be held in November and followed by constitution-writing.
Elsewhere counter-revolution is winning. Bahrain has sentenced human rights activist Nabeel Rajab to three years in prison. I wonder if he would have attracted more attention if his name were Pussy Riot. Algeria, Jordan, Morocco and Saudi Arabia have stifled any serious reform moves. In Iraq, Prime Minister Maliki has weathered political challenges and continues to accumulate power even as frictions between Baghdad and Kurdistan grow.
It looks as if the Arab awakening will continue mainly in North Africa, where it began in early 2011. While Libya has ample oil and gas resources, none of the other countries in which revolutions have come to fruition does. Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen all have serious economic challenges ahead. Syria will be an economic basket case the day after Asad is gone. If we want anything like democracy to prevail in these places, there is going to be a substantial bill to pay.
Marc Lynch has called this a cruel summer. It has certainly been that and worse in Syria. But those of us who have experience with transitions, especially in post-conflict environments, set the bar low. There has been progress elsewhere, even if halting and slower than hoped.
The big open questions are these: is Egypt getting back on track, or are we seeing a new, Islamist autocracy in the making? Can Saudi Arabia manage the succession to next-generation leadership without upheaval? Can the regional war that has begun in Syria be ended before it engulfs several other countries? Can Iran‘s nuclear ambitions be ended at the negotiating table, or will Israel or the United States attack?
No answers are needed today. It suffices to salute those who observe Ramadan with “Eid mubarak!”
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What is a counter autocoup?
Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi Sunday abrogated the constitutional declaration that protected military privileges, arrogated to himself full executive and legislative powers and replaced the country’s upper echelon military chiefs, including former Supreme Council of the Armed Forces chief Field Marshall Tantawi. This is an autocoup (that’s a coup conducted by people already in power against another part of the governing establishment). Or, to be more precise, this is a counter autocoup, since the Egyptian military conducted an autocoup against Morsi in June when they arrogated to themselves broad powers.
I wrote then:
The American press describes the army as “cementing” power. That’s unquestionably what they are trying to do. But it is unlikely to work….It is yet to be seen whether the military has cemented power, or has deluded itself so thoroughly that its moves will be seen one day as demented.
One could of course say something similar about Morsi now. It is unclear whether the army will put up with this seizure of power.
My guess is that it will, not least because Morsi is showing real political skill in choosing people to man (it is almost entirely men) his government. While not as broadly based as some might have hoped, the cabinet he named last week was more technocratic than some expected and included a sprinkling of political rivals as well as holdovers from the last military government. He has also chosen experienced military figures to replace the Minister of Defense (for the last few days Field Marshall Tantawi) and the chief of the army staff.
Morsi’s great advantage over his military rivals is one he seems to understand well: legitimacy, backed domestically by the organizational capabilities of the Muslim Brotherhood and supported internationally by the United States and Saudi Arabia. So long as he shows a modicum of respect for what Yezid Sayigh describes well as the officers’ republic, he may well pull off this latest lurch in Egypt’s dubka between military dictatorship and popular democracy. He has to be careful about paring back the officers’ economic perks and military privileges.
Let’s hope Morsi’s gamble works. Egypt faces growing security problems in the Sinai and serious economic challenges. It needs an effective government and a new constitution. Morsi had appeared to yield to the Supreme Constitutional Court’s decision to dissolve the elected parliament, leaving the constitutional process a shambles. He now has to decide how to reconstitute a legislature and create a committee to write a new constitution.* He would be wise to reach out farther than he did in naming the government towards political forces beyond the Muslim Brotherhood: women, Christians and secularists should have a role that they have so far been denied.
The Egyptian revolution is proving by far the most fraught of those Arab awakenings that have brought down dictators so far. Tunisia, Libya and Yemen all have their problems, but all three seem to be progressing, with fits and starts. Egypt still seems uncertain of its direction, not least because it allowed the military an out-sized role in the post-autocratic transition. But it is also important to recognize that Egypt is much more populous, poorer and diverse than the other Arab awakening countries. This latest turn may not be its last. But Morsi is correct to try to establish civilian control.
*Michelle Dunne points out that there is already a “constituent assembly,” created by the now-dissolved parliament and the object of on-going litigation, working on a new constitution. Morsi presumably has the option of going along with that parlous process.
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