Tag: Libya
Libya redux
Reuters published this piece of mine yesterday under the heading “What’s Behind Libya’s Fast March to Democracy?” It would not have been my choice for a headline. Because one of the commenters on the Reuters website claimed I had never been in Libya, I’ve included at the end some snapshots, which are so bad that it really is inconceivable that someone else took them and sent them to me.
In a trip to Libya this month, just weeks after Muammar Qaddafi’s fall, I found peace coming fast to Tripoli, despite continued resistance in several Libyan towns. Ten days ago, families with children mobbed Martyrs’ square, where Qaddafi once held forth, to commemorate the hanging 80 years ago of Libya’s hero of resistance against the Italians, Omar Mukhtar. Elementary schools opened last week. The university will open next month. Water and electricity are flowing. Uniformed police are on the street. Trash collection is haphazard but functioning.
This is the fastest post-war recovery I have witnessed: faster than Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq or Afghanistan. Certainly faster than Somalia, Sierra Leone or Rwanda.
Why this rapid recovery in a country marked by four decades of dictatorship? Why does Libya seem on track while Egypt seems to have gone off the rails?
Libya has at least three important advantages: good leadership and clear goals at the national and local levels, careful planning and adequate resources.
Libyans believe Mustafa Abdel Jalil, who leads the National Transitional Council (NTC), is uncorrupted and uninterested in continuing in power. He has pledged not to seek future office. He has visited the liberated cities to celebrate the single goal of freeing Libya from the Qaddafi regime. The NTC has replaced Qaddafi’s green flag with the red, black and green banner emblazoned with the star and crescent that was Libya’s flag at independence. The revolution in Libya was not interested in compromise or a managed transition. It wanted a clean break: Qaddafi out and a new, more democratic regime, in.
The NTC and a clandestine Tripoli local council planned carefully for the military takeover of Tripoli and the restoration of services in the aftermath. With three hundred mosques playing CDs chanting “Allahu akbar!” Qaddafi’s forces on the evening of August 20 found themselves confused and then attacked from both inside and outside the city, which fell far more easily than anticipated.
In the weeks since, the new, unpaid local administration has achieved a great deal. It sent technicians hundreds of kilometers to the south with support from local tribesmen to reactivate the wells that pump water into Qaddafi’s “Great Man-made River,” which supplies Tripoli and other population centers. The national government is making the usual social welfare payments. Flour and oil subsidies have been maintained, so bread is cheap and available. Only partial withdrawal of salaries from banks is permitted, but Libyans are confident about the country’s economic future, based on its oil and gas resources.
Libyans know what to expect next. The NTC has promised elections for an interim assembly by April 2012 and presidential elections by April 2013. It has published a constitutional framework that establishes Libya as both Islamic and democratic.
The contrast with Egypt, where I spent a week earlier this month, is striking. Egypt is a much larger, more complicated and poorer country. There unity around the demand for President Hosni Mubarak’s resignation deteriorated quickly once he resigned. Little planning had been done.
The protesters asked the army to take over. Unprepared, it had to postpone elections even as the protest movement split, with secularists demanding a constitution, or at least constitutional principles, before elections and Islamists preferring it the other way around. Egyptians now do not know what to expect, though the first round of elections is now promised for November.
Some of the protesters have now targeted Israel, diverting attention from Egypt’s own problems and scaring off European and American tourists. The economy is in a nose dive. Resources are highly constrained.
Things could go wrong in Libya. We are still in the early days. Qaddafi’s forces could go underground and conduct the kind of insurgency that Saddam Hussein’s secret services ignited in Iraq. Fighting could erupt among the many militias that constitute the NTC’s military forces. Many of them came from outside Tripoli. They may refuse to go home or to disarm.
But Libya is less than one-tenth the population of Egypt and has vast funds deposited abroad by Qaddafi that are beginning to flow to the NTC. If Qaddafi’s forces can be defeated soon and the militias either integrated into a new Libyan army or demobilized and disbanded, there is real hope for success. Libyans, who have lived under an idiosyncratic and cruel dictatorship for more than forty years, deserve no less.
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They lead, we support
The European Union Institute for Strategic Studies asked “what’s next and whose job is it?” for transformations in the Arab world. Here is how I replied:
It is not for Europeans and Americans to lead. It is the citizens whose rights have been abridged who have to in the first instance lay claim to better.
First and foremost the next step is the job of the Arabs: the Tunisians, Egyptians and Libyans in the first wave, the Yemenis and Syrians in what I hope will be a second wave. They know what they want better than we do, and judging in particular from the Tunisians and Libyans they are quite capable of setting the direction. The situation in Egypt is much less clear, as the protesters settled for a military takeover and are now having second thoughts, even as others try to pull Egypt in a nationalist direction that most of the revolutionaries would not want to pursue.
That said, they are going to need help. It seems to me that interests dictate that Europe take the lead on Libya and Tunisia while the Americans play a stronger role in Yemen and Egypt. The odd one out is Syria; sustaining the protest effort there for long enough to bring about real change will require commitment from both the Americans and the Europeans. In all these cases, Western influence will have to contend with Arab efforts that may sometimes pull in opposite directions.
Nor should the West forget the need for reform elsewhere: Bahrain of course, but also Saudi Arabia. The ageing Saudi monarchy (not just the ageing king) and the ferocious crackdown in Bahrain pose real questions about longer-term stability. The Americans stand on the front line with both of these questions, as they also do with Iran. There is no reason why the spring should only be Arab.
Barack Obama, like his predecessor, has made it clear that “all men are created equal and endowed with inalienable rights” does not stop at the water’s edge. It is written in our political DNA and we carry it abroad, like it or not. But the imperative does not stop at the ideal. If we care about the long-term security of our energy supplies, we’ll have to be ready to support those who cry out for their rights and avoid being caught on the wrong side of history.
But it is not for Europeans and Americans to lead. It is the citizens whose rights have been abridged who have to in the first instance lay claim to better. We can only support their efforts. And we’ll have our hands full doing even that much.
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The long and the short of it
As I prepare to head home to DC from Cairo today, my two weeks in Egypt and Libya seem enormously interesting and informative, even as they reconfirm how little can be understood from such short stays in complicated environments. What do we really see of another society without speaking its language and living at length in its midst?
I am close to finishing Alaa al Aswany’s The Yacoubian Building. There is little in its penetrating accounts of abusive sexual relationships in Egypt that I would gather from staying at the Fairmont and running around Cairo to talk with various participants in its recent revolution, though I knew enough about harassment of women here to understand how fraught with sexual dysfunction the society is.
In Libya, the thing that struck me is how difficult it is to understand the role of religion. Pervasive, but not really political, at least not yet, Islam seems more a unifying factor (again, for the moment) than a divisive one, as it certainly is among some Egyptians. But that may be changing.
The east/west geographical divide in Libya appeared far less important to me (and to many journalists who have spent a lot of time in Libya) than some experts had predicted. At the same time, the demands of fighters from Misrata are roiling what had appeared to be relatively tranquil regional relationships. I understand they yesterday laid claim to the prime ministry in a reshuffled executive committee of the National Transitional Council, on grounds that they have fought more aggressively against Qaddafi’s forces, especially at Sirte, than anyone else. The Benghazis, who claim to have initiated the revolution, did not react well.
Egypt and Libya are certainly not the only countries with sexual dysfunction, regional differences and problems with the role of religion in public life. I didn’t live 10 years in Italy without hearing a great deal about all three. But even after 10 years I wasn’t sure that I understood things the way Italians understood them–in fact, I’m sure I didn’t. I was still an American with different cultural baggage and presumptions about gender, geography and religion.
Societies in the midst of revolution are particularly problematic. How much is changing and how much is staying the same? Most historians would hesitate to say until years later. Libya and Egypt have both decapitated their autocratic regimes, but they are still far from having established new ones.
For all the giddy enthusiasm of the revolutionary days and weeks, there is no guarantee that they will be democratic, or even much different from the old ones. Libyans often say they know what they don’t want, namely a leader who tells them what to think (and enforces the dictate with violence). But does that mean they won’t accept a softer autocracy? No one in Egypt seems sure any longer that the military will be prepared to leave power, even if the generals seem ready to set a date for the first round of elections on November 21.
Short visits may be unsatisfying and even misleading, but it doesn’t follow that longer visits will be much more enlightening. I wouldn’t want to wait until the history books are written to have a look for myself. The point I suppose is to take the opportunities we can to expose ourselves to other societies and learn whatever can be gathered in the time available, remembering always that there is a great deal more beneath the surface that we can’t possibly fathom.
I certainly don’t regret having passed up a summer holiday for this September interlude in two very exciting places!
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So far so good
Free Libya seems to me headed in the right direction. It could still be diverted, in particular if Qaddafi manages to raise an insurgency or if the revolutionary militias fall out with each other and begin internecine fighting. But the National Transitional Council (NTC seems to have won the battle with TNC) has legitimacy in the eyes of every Libyan I’ve talked with. They like the roadmap to elections and the constitution the NTC has laid out, they like what they regard as its uncorrupted leadership, and they have confidence that things will improve because of Libya’s vast oil and gas resources.
I’ve never been in a post-war situation with as much unanimity and solidarity on main issues as here. You can see it literally painted all over both Benghazi and Tripoli–the pre-Qaddafi (royalist) flag that symbolizes, Libyans tell me, independence (not the monarchy that flew it originally). Their anthem, they say, is not a “national” anthem but an “independence” anthem (they’ve of course ditched Qaddafi’s and brought back the royal one). I bought a flag in Benghazi’s Court House square, to join the excessive number of symbols of freedom that decorate my office at Johns Hopkins/SAIS. It would be hard to leave Libya without it.
The sense of solidarity and unanimity extends to Tripoli, though it certainly does not entirely fill the vast expanse between the two cities. There is still fighting at Sirte, Bani Walid and other places where Qaddafi’s loyalists are holding out. There is a question whether the NTC can reach out and extend its big tent approach to those who live in central Libya, but they have certainly engaged Tripoli, at least for now.
I spent a few quality hours at the Defense Ministry in Benghazi, where I found a number of professionals engaged seriously with less than glorious challenges. They believe Qaddafi’s forces have strewn 15,000 mines across the countryside. The preferred method for finding them in sand for the moment is with your hands, though there are some higher-tech approaches whose export to Libya is still prohibited by the UN arms embargo. I hope the UN fixed that in the Security Council resolution that passed yesterday.
The Defense Ministry is also concerned about its expeditionary medical capacity, which is close to zero. They haven’t got field hospitals or the logistical capacity to support them.
These are not the kinds of problems that I usually worry about, but I was glad to hear that others do worry about them. “Uniform” may be a euphemism at the Defense Ministry–everyone seems to wear whatever BDUs (battle dress uniform, or “camouflage” as the civilians say) come to hand, as well as the uniforms of Qaddafi’s army. There is no saluting and no formality, even in the anteroom to the minister’s office. But there is a sense of professional purpose and seriousness, as well as a good deal of camaraderie. These folks know each other, have fought a war together, and are now trying to sort out the thousand things that got left behind. But how much the Defense Ministry is linked to the militias guarding street corners in Tripoli is not clear.
The challenge is to unify Libya’s many former rebel forces before they start serious jockeying for territory and power, demobilizing at least some of them and getting others to return to the rougher places from which they came. It will not be easy. Life in Tripoli may look pretty good to someone from the Nafusa Mountains.
Elementary school opens today in Libya. Universities next month. The police are on the streets. The garbage collectors are out with reflective vests, even if their efforts still seem spotty. I talked to a former Mercedes manager today. He says people are still not taking their fancy cars out of the garage. But traffic is heavy. Friday nights’s exuberant demonstration, well attended by women and children, is still ringing in my ears.
Libyans are feeling proud, even giddy with their refurbished identity, which they trust will be more welcome in the rest of the world than the previous one. Fears of an east/west split in the country have so far not materialized. Qaddafi may still be at large, but no one is expecting him back except to be tried (and they expect executed). So far so good, even if big challenges lie ahead.
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One hand
My stake-out of a Tripoli mosque during noon-time prayers yesterday led to a conversation with a professor of forensic science. Admittedly my sample is infinitesmal and my sampling technique highly biased: I need someone who speaks English (my years of studying Arabic produced little) and is willing to talk with a foreigner. Very few randomly approached Libyans speak passable English, and my Arabic is truly primitive.
The sermon focused on unity, the professor said. “One hand” is the metaphor used both here and in Egypt. This includes all Libyans, he said, referring explicitly to the Catholic church around the corner, not just Muslims. The biggest threat to unity comes from tribalism, which my professor (against conventional wisdom) thought strong even in Tripoli, where there are occasional wall posters advising against it. The sermon asked people to be patient and to support the new authorities, who would bring greater prosperity.
Libyans are at pains to emphasize their gratitude to NATO. My professor thought that without NATO the rebels would surely have lost to the regime. He and other intellectuals who sided with the February 17 revolution would have been hung, or even chopped into pieces. He and others are grateful.
Many people did lose their lives in the six months of fighting. Perhaps 2-3000 lie in mass graves in Tripoli and elsewhere. Some were burned alive in containers doused with gasoline. DNA analysis will be possible, but there is little capacity to conduct it in Libya. They are just starting to organize the effort, hoping that instructions to leave the mass graves undisturbed are followed.
Then there is Abu Saleem, the notorious prison where Qaddafi ordered a massacre of more than 1200 prisoners in 1996. Their remains, too, need to be identified. Both in Benghazi, where the court house square hosts a big display on the Abu Saleem massacre, and here in Tripoli there is a vivid memory of the event and a strong feeling that justice has to be done on behalf of the victims.
As in so many Muslim countries, the religiosity on display in Tripoli Friday had little to do with going to mosque, where not much more than a handful of classically thawb-dressed men seemed to attend noon-time prayers in my neighborhood, though I understand there was a big crowd in Martyrs’ square for prayers with Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan. Just as important are the pervasive sounds and symbols of Islam: the call to prayer (but if they are doing the early morning adhan I am missing it), the star and crescent moon that appears on the “independence” flag and therefore on most revolution paraphenalia, and women covering at least their hair (well over 90%). I imagine Islam is also present more or less constantly in both public and family life.
The natural question is whether Islam will take a political form in Libya. The Muslim Brotherhood is far weaker than in Egypt, but some of the militias and their leaders are explicitly Islamist. I have no way of telling whether they will gain traction in the nascent political arena. I imagine that they will to some extent, even if every Libyan I’ve asked about this so far says no.
One hand cannot endure forever if Libya is to be a democracy, or even a proto-democracy. The emergence of parties and factions will be an important test for the revolution, as the fingers on that one hand start to point in different directions.
But for the moment, unity is still producing results: the UN General Assembly acceptance of the NTC to occupy Libya’s seat and yesterday’s at least partly successful attacks on Qaddafi’s holdout towns of Sirte and especially Bani Walid.
We’ll have to wait to see what tomorrow will bring, but last night all of Tripoli was down at Martyr’s square to show support for the NTC and commemorate the hanging eighty years ago of Omar Mukhtar, Libyan hero of resistance to the Italians. Ironic therefore that many Libyans today dream of visiting Italy, admire the Italians and make a very fine caffe’ ristretto as well as a half-decent pizza rustica. Strange that a decent ice cream, even of the packaged (confezionato) kind, seems impossible to find. That’s one of my religious devotions. Maybe in the New Libya.
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From the shores of Tripoli
I arrived in Tripoli yesterday. Things here are much less “normal” than in Benghazi: there are lots of young men with guns on the street. Detonations happen, some more than just the usual “celebratory” AK 47 rounds. Procedures at Mitiga airport are haphazard, security at the Radisson (where lots of business is conducted) is tight. The internet is agonizingly slow, especially once the journalists start trying to file in the evening.
But everyone agrees that things are improving. Water and electricity are flowing. Many stores and restaurants are now open, traffic is getting more congested. Lots of people are on the street–often with children (a clear sign of feeling relatively secure).
The Western journalists I talked with last night were on the gloomy side: they worry about Qaddafi being at large, the three major towns still holding out against the Transitional National Council (TNC), jockeying for position among the many militias that control different parts of Tripoli, rascist incidents and slurs against black Libyans, especially those who once supported Qaddafi. All those problems are real.
But I’m far cheerier, because I managed somehow to strike up a conversation last night with a group of young doctors, dentists and engineers trying to preserve the spirit of their jihad (that’s struggle in English, with spiritual but not necessarily specifically religious connotations) against the Qaddafi regime. These people in their 20s spent months caring for wounded demonstrators in their homes to avoid sending them to hospitals, where they would have been arrested (or in some cases killed).
They have organized themselves as Free Doctors’ Forum, Free Generation, Libya Youth Forum and the like in an effort to “bring Libya back to life.” They fear that others may attempt to hijack their revolution. They are cautious about politics–the only politicians they have ever known were Qaddafi and his cronies, so they distrust politicians and political parties even though they want a free political system. The parallel to America’s founding fathers, who likewise feared their revolution would be hijacked and corrupted if political parties formed, is hard to miss. The Libyans want the revolution they just went through to be the last the country will ever need.
Freedom is the word Libyans associate most with their February 17 revolution. Freedom to speak their minds, to associate in groups as they please, to read and view what they want, and to form their own opinions. The young people I met distrust power. They accept NTC chair Jalil as a transition leader but look forward to a day when they can choose their own. They plan to monitor and evaluate the performance of their leaders through independent organizations. They did not use the term “civil society” with me. But they somehow have reinvented the concept. Nor did they know what USAID is (though they had already met with European assistance providers). What a pleasure to discover revolutionaries before they’ve learned the international vocabulary!
The young people I talked with are mildly suspicious about big international organizations–they rightly fear that some of them would rather provide medical services themselves rather than support a Libyan organization that provides medical service. They will resist being hired away from their own nascent service providers to work for the internationals. I wished them fortitude in this, as I’ve seen it happen all too often: the internationals come in under the banner of supporting civil society and quickly destroy the indigenous institutions by hiring away their personnel as translators and drivers.
I ran down to Martyrs’ (formerly Green) Square this morning along the Tripoli shoreline, which U.S. marines failed to reach (they got only as far as Derna) in their effort to suppress Berber (Barbary) attacks on American shipping in 1804. The town was about as quiet as it gets at 9 am Friday, as people sleep late on a day that begins the Muslim weekend. Street sweepers were cleaning up the square after whatever happened there last night. I got a few quizzical looks and one “good morning!” I’ll try later today to talk with people coming out of a mosque, hoping to get a picture of how more religious people regard the revolution and future prospects.
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