Tag: Mexico

Stevenson’s army, March 30

– IGs report on Ukraine aid.

– RUSI reports on Ukraine lessons.

-WaPo reports on Bibi-Biden split; Axios has more.

– Axios reports on how Zients runs the WH. Note that SecTreas Yellen attends the staff meeting.

-USD Kahl explains why no F16s to Ukraine.

-Trump think tank prepares “battle plans” for Mexico

– Senate votes 66-30 to repeal Iraq AUMFs, but McCarthy may not take House vote.

– Feds work hard to recruit young employees.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, February 22

– The White House has released a fact sheet on the Ukraine war, including embedded links to even more details.

– Politico has a good summary of new laws and policies to counter Chinese technology [relevant to week 7 exercise]

– Yahoo News says Russia plans to take over Belarus.

– Prigozhin accuses Russian military of treason.

– David Frum makes case for AMLO as an autocrat.

– WaPo columnist details GOP budget games.

– Dan Drezner skewers DeSantis foreign policy

– A footnote inspired me to read this article on how, except for US independence, the British won the war of 1775-83.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, October 7

– GOP promises China focus if they control House.

China blocks UN criticism of its human rights policies.

– Josh Rogin wants limits on lobbying by foreign dictators.

– WaPo says US intelligence reported direct criticism of Putin.

– NYT reports abuses by Mexican military.

– Axios reports anarchy in Haiti.

– CNN reports criticism of Havana syndrome investigations.

– CNN notes infrastructure bill opponents who now want the money.

– Why would a sitting US Senator want to quit to be a university president?

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, sometimes adding videos. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, June 7

– Swedish govt survived a no confidence vote after deal with Kurdish MP.

– WSJ has more on Erdogan.

AMLO won’t attend this week’s summit.

– India may be part of the Quad, but Walter Russell Mead notes the many differences with US

– NYT notes troubles Ukrainians have learning new weapons.

– US is bombing al-Shabaab again. When the class talks abut Congress, I’ll want you to devise a new AUMF to handle this situation.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, December 22

In the Taiwan Strait and in Strait of Hormuz.
FP says China exposed US agents in Africa.
Politico mentions some of the extra items included in the Covid Relief & Omnibus appropriations bill Congress passed Monday night: Among the other items included: a hard-fought bipartisan agreement to protect patients from receiving “surprise” medical bills, a compromise version of an annual authorization for the intelligence community, the creation of two new Smithsonian museums, tax extenders, a Tibet human rights bill, and a ban on race-day horse doping, just to name a few.

Congress will come back to vote on NDAA veto overrride.
And here’s the 2021 Senate calendar.

Prof Brands has nuanced ideas for responding to Russian hack.

Mexican military gains in power and role in society.
Report says DOD needs to look out for extremists in the ranks.
Other signers reaffirm commitment to JCPOA.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Only time will tell

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) won Mexico’s July 1 presidential election with 53% of the votes. In addition, MORENA, AMLO’s political party,  joined a coalition with other minority parties to consolidate a majority of seats in both the Senate and Chamber of Deputies.

Keen on understanding Mexico’s current political situation, the Woodrow Wilson Center hosted an event on AMLO and the Fourth Transformation: One Year After Historic Election Victory on July 8. The panel was composed of Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas Professors Blanca Heredia and Mariá Amparo Casar, Global Fellow and Director of Buendia & Laredo Jorge Buendia, as well as Albright Stonebridge Group Senior Vice President Antonio Ortiz-Mena. The panel was moderated by Deputy Director of the Mexico Institute, Christopher  Wilson.

Wilson underlined that AMLO promised to fight corruption, portraying himself as someone who could be trusted also to maintain fiscal responsibility. The question is whether his wave of support will continue or crash? AMLO had one-third of voter support in 2006 and 2012, but he currently has an approval rating between 60 to 70 percent—impressive when compared with former President Peña Nieto. Expectations are high.

For example, 41 percent believe the current economic situation is worse as compared to 14 percent who think it has improved. However, 34 percent believe that it will improve compared to 24 percent who think otherwise. Buendia expects that AMLO’s approval rating will gradually decline as the year comes to an end since the “inaugural honeymoon” will end.

Blanca indicated that language is key for AMLO. He treats corruption as a moral rather than a legal problem. In addition, he focuses on transformation but not goals: destruction of the old system rather than construction of a new one. The new leadership has been described as a populist regime in the making—one that is unique because it is situated on the left side of the political spectrum. It is all about breaking apart a system that excludes parts of society. Blanca concluded that there is an opportunity to move away from the deformed development that has hindered Mexico in the past.

Though AMLO has indicated that he has already met 78 out of the 100 promises he made, Amparo Casar suggests AMLO administration policies aimed at security, inequality, and corruption are not as effective as they could be. AMLO’s insistence that “nothing and no one is above the law” and “if you have to choose between justice and the law, do not hesitate, choose justice” can be problematic and dangerous in a country like Mexico.

Ortiz-Mena concluded with an economic perspective—looking at the possibility of increased stability and growth in Mexico. While the growth rate has remained around that seen under Peña Nieto—2.3 percent—Ortiz-Mena believes that Mexico can reach a growth rate of 4 percent. He highlighted the risks that could result from AMLO’s aversion towards increasing taxes and national debt since in the case of a drop in GDP, Mexico would not have a strong safety net to rebound quickly. This is interesting since while the new administration is left-leaning it is economically conservative.

The panel showed wide variance on Mexico’s prospects. It is still not clear whether there will be major changes, or whether the country will regress to familiar patterns. A serious transformation is still uncertain. Only time will tell.

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