Tag: Middle East
Stevenson’s army, March 3
– NYT details Western help to Ukraine.
– WSJ notes pro-Russia sentiment in Middle East
– FP China Brief notes how China is censoring Ukraine news.
– Defense News assesses chances for Ukrainian resistance.
– Atlantic assesses Russian economic vulnerabilities.
– Changing mood on Capitol Hill. Concerns over Sen. Rubio’s tweets of war info.
Policy process: All cables going from the State Dept go under the name of the SecState, though few have actually been seen by him. Axios has the story of a cable to 50 countries urging US diplomats to say India and UAE were “in Russia’s camp.” Oops. Cable recalled. The recall of the strongly worded cable indicates either a process error with a fabled and vital work product — or a policy dispute inside the U.S. government involving two key allies.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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What happens in Ukraine won’t stay in Ukraine
Here are the speaking notes I prepared on the Balkans and Middle East for this noon’s event on “What’s Next for Russia, Ukraine, and the World?” It featured Johns Hopkins/SAIS faculty:
Balkans
- American policy since the end of the Cold War has aimed at “Europe whole and free.” That isn’t going to happen so long as Putin or someone of his ilk rules Russia.
- Serbia claims neutrality, but its current leadership advocates a “Serbian world” akin to Putin’s “Russian world.” Belgrade also refuses to sanction Moscow. De facto Serbia is siding with Russia.
- That puts Bosnia, Kosovo, and NATO member Montenegro at risk from Serb irredentism.
- The line between democracies and autocracies will therefore also be drawn through the Balkans unless Belgrade changes its inclinations.
Countering Russian ambitions and Moscow’s Serb proxies needs higher priority:
- Deployment of an additional 500 EU troops to Bosnia is a good first step. But more are needed. The UK should augment that deployment. The US should beef up the military presence in Brcko and move some troops to northern Kosovo .
- The EU should tell Serbia that continued adherence to neutrality in Ukraine will result in a halt to the EU accession process.
- The US, UK, and EU should end bilateral and multilateral assistance to Republika Srpska and threaten likewise to Serbia.
Middle East
In the Middle East, the situation is more ambiguous. The interests at stake are less compelling and US policy more accepting of autocracy:
- Syria backs Russia and Iran is attempting the Chinese straddle (for peace but against Ukrainian membership in NATO). Egypt, the UAE, and other small Gulf monarchies are ducking for cover. Saudi Arabia so far has decided to enjoy high oil prices.
- Israel has backed Ukraine, but cautiously to avoid Russian retaliation against its interests in Syria and domestic political complications. Turkey has also backed Ukraine, less cautiously.
- Ultimately, the Middle East will go with the flow. If Russia is successful, no one in the Middle East will refuse to maintain diplomatic relations with a puppet government in Kyiv.
- OPEC+ will gain traction and Russian inroads in the Middle East will expand.
- But if Russia fails, the Middle East countries, democracies and autocracies alike, will claim they supported Ukraine, even if OPEC+ suffers irreparable damage.
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Stevenson’s army, February 4
– WaPo has the best tick-tock on the raid that killed the ISIS leader.
– Fed Kaplan assesses how the war on terror is going.
– NYT reveals how Putin has sanctions-proofed Russia.
– US reveals more Russian planning for pretexts for Ukraine war.
-WSJ says even renewed Iran nuclear deal will leave it within 12 months of a bomb.
-State Dept approves new Mideast arms sales.
-Documents show Trump WH considered using NSA to gather election info.
– Wired says an independent US hacker took down North Korea’s internet.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 2
– Senate Democrats have lost their majority for the time being. Sen. Lujan [D-NM] is hospitalized following a stroke. Since the Senate, unlike the House, does not allow remote voting, at most 49 Democrats can vote on any measure. This complicates passage of appropriations packages [Feb 18 deadline] as well as other Biden proposals.
-China weighs in — supporting Russia over Ukraine and seeking to gain influence in the Middle East.
– Stimson Center has a report on US military aid to Ukraine.
– The scathing George Packer article on the withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Betrayal, is mainly a story about the botched efforts to arrange evacuation of former Afghan employees. Axios has a leaked memo of a last-minute Deputies Committee meeting on the topic, showing how far behind the curve the USG was as Kabul fell.
-Lawfare has interesting legal analyses: how Congress has limited the use of special envoys for diplomacy and how the US can still assert legal principles in the South China Sea despite failure to ratify UNCLOS.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Siyasa Podcast: Episode 1: US-Iran negotiations and the region — with Vali Nasr
The first episode of podcast Siyasa, which discusses Middle East policy and politics.
Episode 1: Are both sides interested in reaching a new deal? What are the main obstacles? What do the Saudi-Iranian negotiations in Baghdad mean for the region? The podcast’s host Ibrahim Al-Assil discusses these and other questions with professor Vali Nasr.
You can also listen to the podcast on:
Spotify
Google Podcast
The podcast will be available on Apple podcast within a few days.
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Stevenson’s army, October 21
– On the Chinese missile: WaPo compares conflicting views; NYT notes skepticism; Jeffrey Lewis warns against an arms race.
– Dan Drezner likes Treasury’s new views on sanctions.
– Experts see North Korea diversifying its military.
– NYT reports that Trump wanted 250,000 troops to border & raids into Mexico.
– Sen. Cruz blocks nominee for State’s Mideast bureau.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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