Tag: Middle East
Peace Picks | April 12 – April 16, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- The Future of US Security in Space | April 12, 2021 | 1:30 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Activity in space is rapidly expanding with an explosion of actors and commerce in recent years. More than seventy nations operate national space programs, making international space governance prime for a reboot. Private-sector investment in unique space technologies and more affordable space launch creates the exciting prospect of a space commerce boom. Meanwhile, the increasing salience of space in great-power competition and counterspace capabilities threaten freedom of access. Space exploration will likely evolve at pace over the next decades, offering potential resource abundance and the ability to expand the frontiers of space development. The United States and its allies require a strategy to meet the moment and shape the strategic landscape through 2050 and beyond.
Speakers:
Frederick Kempe: President & CEO, Atlantic Council
Gen. James E. Cartwright: Former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Hon. Deborah Lee James: Former Secretary of the Air Force
Hon. Charles F. Bolden Jr.: 12th NASA Administrator and Astronaut
Dr. Scott Pace: Former Executive Secretary, US National Space Council
Jennifer Griffin (moderator): National Security Correspondent, Fox News
Col. Andrew R. Morgan: Astronaut, NASA
Lt. Col. Christopher Mulder: Senior US Air Force Fellow, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security
Debra Facktor: Head of US Space Systems, Airbus US Space & Defense, Inc.
Ellen Chang: Head of Naval Portfolio, H4X Labs
Gregg Maryniak: Co-Founder and Director, XPRIZE Foundation
Dr. Matthew Daniels: Senior Fellow, Center for Security and Emerging Technology
Dr. Jana Robinson: Managing Director and Space Security Program Director, Prague Security Studies Institute
Jacqueline Feldscher (moderator): National Security and Space Reporter, POLITICO
2. Oscar-Nominated “Hunger Ward” Documentary: Inside Yemen’s Humanitarian Crisis | April 12, 2021 | 7:00 PM ET | United States Institute of Peace| Register Here
The conflict in Yemen has precipitated the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. According to the United Nations, two-thirds of Yemenis need humanitarian assistance to survive. Meanwhile, more than 16 million people will face hunger this year, with nearly 50,000 Yemenis in famine-like conditions. Almost half of Yemen’s children under age five will suffer from acute malnutrition, including 400,000 who could die without urgent treatment.
Filmed from inside two of the most active therapeutic feeding centers in Yemen, “Hunger Ward” documents two female health care workers fighting to thwart the spread of starvation against the backdrop of Yemen’s raging conflict. The film provides an unflinching portrait of Dr. Aida Alsadeeq and Nurse Mekkia Mahdi as they try to save the lives of hunger-stricken children within a population on the brink of famine.
Join USIP as we host a screening of the Oscar-nominated documentary “Hunger Ward,” followed by a discussion of the film and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Yemen with acclaimed journalist and PBS NewsHour anchor Judy Woodruff, Academy Award-nominated filmmaker Skye Fitzgerald, and former U.N. Resident Coordinator for Yemen and current USIP President and CEO Lise Grande.
This program is presented in partnership with MTV Documentary Films.
Speakers:
Lise Grande
President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
Judy Woodruff
Anchor and Managing Editor, PBS NewsHour
Skye Fitzgerald
Director and Academy Award Nominee, “Hunger Ward”
3. The Nexus of Climate Change, Fragility, and Peacebuilding | April 13, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
Join the Wilson Center and USIP for a timely discussion with experts on the linkages between climate and fragility, and how a more integrated approach to climate and fragility policies and responses can simultaneously strengthen resilience outcomes and minimize threats to peace and prosperity.
The Biden administration is taking action to center climate change in its foreign policy and national security agendas, preparing to dramatically curb U.S. emissions, and has recognized climate change’s connection to injustice. Yet, one thing has been missing from the administration’s climate agenda: The linkages between climate change action and opportunities to build peace. While climate impacts can drive conflict and insecurity, well-designed climate action can foster collaboration and promote peace, and strategic investments in peacebuilding can yield climate resilience.
The Global Fragility Act (GFA) and recently released “U.S. Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stabilization” could provide an important avenue to elevate and leverage the Biden administration’s bold climate agenda to address instability and build peace. Bridging the policy gap between climate action and peacebuilding is a crucial first step to a more climate resilient and peaceful future. In fact, research shows sustainable peace requires a climate-sensitive lens, and sustainable climate responses require a conflict-sensitive lens.
Join the Wilson Center and USIP for a timely discussion with experts on the linkages between climate and fragility, and how a more integrated approach to climate and fragility policies and responses can simultaneously strengthen resilience outcomes and minimize threats to peace and prosperity.
Speakers:
Joseph Hewitt: Vice President, Policy, Learning, and Strategy, U.S. Institute of Peace
Cynthia Brady (moderator): Global Fellow; Former Peacebuilding and Resilience Advisor, USAID
Dina Esposito: Vice President of Technical Leadership, Mercy Corps
Alice Hill: David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment, Council on Foreign Relations; former Senior Director, Resilience Policy, National Security Council
Liz Hume: Acting President and CEO, Alliance for Peacebuilding
Erin Sikorsky: Deputy Director, The Center for Climate and Security; former Deputy Director, Strategic Futures Group, National Intelligence Council
4. Navigating Humanitarian Access During Covid-19: Towards Localization | April 14, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | CSIS | Register Here
The Covid-19 pandemic created unprecedented challenges in the delivery of humanitarian assistance worldwide. Global lockdowns and travel restrictions hindered humanitarian access for international aid organizations attempting to reach vulnerable populations and impeded the mobility of civilians displaced by armed conflict. As a result of these additional access constraints, national and local humanitarian actors were tasked with increased leadership and responsibility to deliver life-saving assistance.
Speakers:
Dr. Rebecca Brubaker: Senior Policy Adviser and Project Director at the United Nations University Centre for Policy
Research (UNU-CPR),
Eranda Wijewickrama: Leader at the Humanitarian Advisory Group,
Smruti Patel: Founder and Co-Director of the Global Mentoring Initiative.
Jacob Kurtzer: Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda
Kimberly Flowers: Senior Associate (Non-resident), Humanitarian Agenda and Global Food Security Progra
5. UAE: US Policy In The Middle East And Prospects For Peace And Economic Growth In A Troubled Region | April 14, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Hoover Institution | Watch Here
In this episode of Battlegrounds, H.R. McMaster and Yousef Al Otaiba discuss the Abraham Accords, the humanitarian crisis centered on ongoing crises in Syria and Yemen, the threat from Iran, and great power competition in the Middle East.
Speakers:
Yousef Al Otaiba: United Arab Emirates (UAE) Ambassador to the United States (US)
H. R. McMaster: Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University
6. Russia’s Dangerous Military Escalation with Ukraine| April 14, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Moscow is amassing forces on Ukraine’s eastern border and in northern occupied Crimea. The Kremlin’s propaganda machine is working overtime talking about Kyiv’s aggressive actions and spreading disinformation that Ukraine is shelling civilians in the Donbas. Russian President Vladimir Putin is unhappy—Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took away the media channels from Putin’s ally Viktor Medvedchuk, and a concerned United States conducted a series of high-level telephone calls to reassure Kyiv and demonstrate strong international support for Ukraine in this crisis. Why is this all happening now? What makes these military actions different from the leadup to Moscow’s invasion in 2014? Will Putin actually strike, and what should the West do now?
Speakers:
Oleksiy Honcharuk: Former Prime Minister of Ukraine; Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
Evelyn Farkas: Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia
Ambassador Daniel Fried: Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council
Melinda Haring (moderator): Deputy Director of the Eurasia Center, to assess Russia’s recent military buildup near the Ukrainian border
7. Measuring Democracy in Central and Eastern Europe: Do Scores Matter? | April 15, 2021 | 8:30AM ET | German Marshall Fund | Register Here
Global democracy has been in decline for fifteen years, with Central and Eastern European countries leading the trend of autocratization in the Western world. However, while main democracy monitoring projects offer a uniform view on the decline of democracy and rising trends of authoritarianism in the region, including in EU and NATO member states, their warnings remain a cry in the wilderness. With domestic threats to democracy remaining largely disregarded, the debate revolving around the rule of law in the EU disguises the true nature of authoritarian trends, helping to maintain the legitimacy of non-democratic or barely democratic governments.
Why are the results of different efforts to measure democracy falling on deaf ears and remaining largely disregarded at the political level? When and why did measuring democracy largely lose its political and policy relevance, and how could this be re-established? And what are the major democratic and authoritarian trends and lessons learned in Central and Eastern Europe that European politicians and stakeholders should not ignore?
The German Marshall Fund of the United States is pleased to invite you to an online event and discussion that examines these and other questions related to the challenges and results of measuring democracy in Central and Eastern Europe.
Speakers:
Zselyke Csáky: Research Director, Europe & Eurasia, Freedom House
Sabine Donner: Senior Expert, Bertelsmann Transformation Index
Juraj Medzihorsky: Research Associate, V-Dem
Daniel Hegedüs (moderator): Fellow for Central Europe, German Marshall Fund of the United States
8. Bullets Not Ballots: Success in Counterinsurgency Warfare | April 15, 2021 | 12:15 PM ET | Harvard Belfar Center | Register Here
In Bullets Not Ballots, Jacqueline L. Hazelton challenges the claim that winning “hearts and minds” is critical to successful counterinsurgency campaigns. Good governance, this conventional wisdom holds, gains the besieged government popular support, denies support to the insurgency, and enables military and political victory. Hazelton argues that major counterinsurgent successes since World War II have resulted not through democratic reforms but rather through the use of military force against civilians and the co-optation of rival elites.
Hazelton offers new analyses of five historical cases frequently held up as examples of the effectiveness of good governance in ending rebellions—the Malayan Emergency, the Greek Civil War, the Huk Rebellion in the Philippines, the Dhofar rebellion in Oman, and the Salvadoran Civil War—to show that, although unpalatable, it was really brutal repression and bribery that brought each conflict to an end. By showing how compellence works in intrastate conflicts, Bullets Not Ballots makes clear that whether or not the international community decides these human, moral, and material costs are acceptable, responsible policymaking requires recognizing the actual components of counterinsurgent success—and the limited influence that external powers have over the tactics of counterinsurgent elites.
Speakers:
Jacqueline L. Hazelton: Associate, International Security Program
9. Defense Against the Dark Arts in Space | April 15, 2021 | 8:30AM ET | CSIS | Register Here
Analysts from CSIS and the Secure World Foundation will discuss way to protect space systems from counterspace weapons, including active and passive defenses, strategy and policy measures, and diplomatic initiatives.
Speakers:
Victoria Samson: Washington Office Director, Secure World Foundation
David Edmondson: Policy Head, Space Security and Advanced Threats
Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan: Director of the Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology, Observer Research Foundation
Frank Rose: Co-Director of the Center for Security, Strategy and Technology
Todd Harrison: Director of Defence Budget Analysis and Director of the Aerospace Security Project
10. Great Power Challenges to the Transatlantic Alliance: Reinventing Leadership for a Stable Future | April 16, 2021 | 10:00AM ET | Carnegie Endowment | Watch Here
After a tenuous four years for the transatlantic alliance, the Biden administration has ushered in new hope for its future and made clear intentions to strengthen ties with European allies. But the challenges today are not centered around blunting frontal assaults by tanks; they turn on meeting competitive and containing malign activities by Russia and China in outlying regions (Black Sea), out of area (Iran) and new technological planes, while carving out opportunities to cooperate on vital security and trade issues. How best to renew the transatlantic alliance amid these dynamic trends in the security and technological landscape?
Join us for a conversation featuring Vicki Birchfield, Erik Brattberg, Philip Breedlove, and Suzanne DiMaggio in conversation with Suzanne Kelly, with special remarks by Sam Nunn on the path forward for the transatlantic alliance.
Speakers:
Suzanne Kelly: CEO & publisher of the Cipher Brief; Former CNN’s intelligence correspondent before spending two years in the private sector.
Vicki L. Birchfield: Professor in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at Georgia Tech, co-director of the Center for European and Transatlantic Studies, and director of the study abroad program on the European Union and Transatlantic Relations.
Erik Brattberg: Director of the Europe Program and a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washingto
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Peace Picks | April 5 – 9
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
1. The Cold War in the Middle East or the Middle East in the Cold War? | April 5, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
Speakers
Lorenz Lüthi: Associate Professor, McGill University
Eliza Gheorghe (moderator): Scholar, Romanian Cultural Institute
Guy Laron: Senior Lecturer, Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Alexander Shelby: Professor, Indian River College
In this discussion with Guy Laron, Alexander Shelby and Eliza Gheorghe, Professor Lüthi will discuss the Middle East angle of his book, with a focus on the Arab-Israeli conflict. Long one of the most controversial and significant issues of the 20th century, Professor Lüthi removes the “great power” lense and seeks to provide the perspective of those parties directly involved, Israel and the Arab states.
2. Preventing nuclear proliferation and reassuring America’s allies | April 7, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Speakers
Sec. Chuck Hagel: Former US Secretary of Defense
Christopher Ford: Former Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Non-Proliferation
Elaine Bunn: Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy
Missy Ryan (moderator): Reporter, Washington Post
A task force, co-chaired by Chuck Hagel, Malcolm Rifkind, and Kevin Rudd, with Ivo Daalder, argues that fraying American alliances and a rapidly changing security environment have shaken America’s nuclear security guarantees and threaten the 50-year-old nuclear nonproliferation regime. Please join Sec. Chuck Hagel, former US Secretary of Defense; Dr. Christopher Ford, former assistant secretary of state for international security and non-proliferation; and Ms. Elaine Bunn, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and missile defense policy, for a discussion moderated by Washington Post national security reporter Ms. Missy Ryan on preventing nuclear proliferation, strengthening America’s nuclear security guarantees, and a recent Chicago Council of Global Affairs report on these issues.
3. Mitigating the Impact of Sanctions on Humanitarian Action | April 7, 2021 | 9:30 AM – 10:15 AM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Speakers
Representative Andy Levin: Vice Chair, House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia, and Nonproliferation
Jacob Kurtzer: Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda
J. Stephen Morrison: Senior Vice President and Director, Global Health Policy Center
To discuss the impact of sanctions on humanitarian assistance, the CSIS Humanitarian Agenda welcomes Congressman Andy Levin (D-MI-9), Vice Chair, House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia, and Nonproliferation, and author of the “Enhancing North Korea Humanitarian Assistance Act”. This armchair discussion, hosted by Jacob Kurtzer, Director and Senior Fellow of the Humanitarian Agenda, will explore some of the consequences of sanctions on civilian populations and policy solutions that could mitigate their humanitarian impact.
4. China’s sanctions on Europe | April 8, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 10:30 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Speakers
Reinhard Bütikofer: Member of the European Parliament
Miriam Lexmann: Member of the European Parliament
Dovilé Sakaliene: Member of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania
Thomas Wright (moderator): Director, Center on the United States and Europe
The Chinese government recently imposed sanctions on EU and U.K. parliamentarians, think tanks, academics, and EU committees. Beijing said its sanctions were a response to European sanctions on officials connected to human rights violations in Xinjiang. China’s sanctions have been condemned by EU and U.K. officials as an attack on democracy and are likely to complicate the ratification of the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). On April 8, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings will host parliamentarians targeted and sanctioned by China for a panel discussion on China’s actions, what they mean for future EU and U.K. relations with China, and the role of human rights in foreign policy.
5. “Taking Stock of the Arab Uprisings” | April 8, 2021 | 1:30 PM – 2:45 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Speakers
Michael Hanna: Senior Fellow, The Century Foundation
Tarek Masoud (moderator): Faculty Director, Middle East Institute
As the initial promise of the Arab uprisings has collapsed and curdled, many have revisited nagging questions posed by political dysfunction in the Arab world. Special guest Michael Hanna, Senior Fellow of The Century Foundation joins MEI to discuss the question of whether or not the Arab uprisings were a failure and what this all means for the new Biden Administration.
6. How Can Middle-Power Democracies Renovate Global Democracy Support? | April 8, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Ken Godfrey: Executive Director, the European Partnership for Democracy
Rachel Kleinfield: Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program
Roland Paris: Professor, University of Ottawa
Lisa Peterson: Senior Official for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights
As autocracy engulfs ever more countries, how should the world’s remaining democracies respond? Many are struggling to address internal demands from aggrieved citizens and pandemic pressures, while fending off attempts from authoritarian governments to undermine them from without and within. The conventional menu of democracy support tools seems too meager to meet this geopolitical moment. Germany wants a Marshall Plan for Democracy; Sweden emphasizes a Drive for Democracy. Can middle power democracies enact a strategy commensurate with the challenges at hand?
7. Building Resilience in the Sahel in an Era of Forced Displacement | April 8, 2021 | 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
Speakers
Lauren Herzer Risi (moderator): Project Director, Environmental Change and Security Program
Ngozi Amu: Team Leader, UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel
Elizabeth Ferris: Professor, Georgetown University
Florian Morier: Head of Stabilization, UNDP Cameroon
WIse Nzikie Ngasa: Justice and Resilience Program Director – Mali, Mercy Corps
Kayly Ober: Program Manager, Climate Displacement Program, Refugees International
In the Sahel, a growing crisis driven by ongoing violence and devastation wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and food insecurity, has led to the internal displacement of more than 2 million people—four times the number displaced just 2 years ago. This humanitarian crisis demands an urgent response to ensure adequate provision of shelter, food, and water for those forced from their homes. It also points to a need for comprehensive approaches and sustained investments to address the drivers of forced displacement in the region. Join the Wilson Center and Population Institute for a discussion with experts who are working across disciplines to identify entry points for policies and programs that strengthen the resilience of communities across the region.
8. AI and democracy: Transformative and disruptive potential | April 8, 2021 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET | Chatham House | Register Here
Speakers
Marjorie Buchser: Executive Director, Digital Society Initiative
Cornelia Kutterer: Senior Director, Rule of Law & Responsible Tech
Matthias Spielcamp: Co-Founder and Executive Director, AlgorithmWatch
Philip Howard: Professor, Oxford Internet Institute
Rebecca Finlay: Acting Executive Director, Partnership on AI
This panel discusses the transformative potential of AI and how policymakers, technology companies and civil society can work together to make sure that these advancements are for the betterment of, rather than a detriment to, democratic norms and practices. It also explores some existing and future AI applications, encouraging participants to share their views, hopes and concerns regarding AI and democracy.
9. The Future of U.S. Cultural Diplomacy | April 9, 2021 | 1:00 PM – 2:15 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Speakers
Nancy Szalwinski: Director of the Cultural Division in the Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs
Ambassador Nicholas Burns: Professor, Harvard Kennedy School
Carla Dirlikov Canales (moderator): Co-Creator, Culture Summit
Nancy Szalwinski, Director of Cultural Programs, Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs, U.S. Department of State, and Ambassador Nicholas Burns, Goodman Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations at Harvard Kennedy School will discuss ways in which cultural diplomacy can play a significant role in furthering U.S. foreign policy objectives and the Biden administration’s promise to “restore America’s global standing.” The conversation will focus on current cultural diplomacy priorities for the United States and how changing technologies, geopolitical trends, and recent events have led to new approaches, initiatives, and challenges. Carla Dirlikov Canales will moderate the discussion.
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Peace Picks | March 15 – March 19, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Free to Leave? Independent Media in Russia | March 15, 2021 | 9:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council| Register Here
Independent media in Russia have long faced harassment and intimidation from the Kremlin. Indeed, when Vladimir Putin first rose to the Russian presidency in 2000, he quickly stifled the country’s large national broadcasters, shuttered commercial media outlets, and began a campaign to force domestic affiliates to break ties with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) Russian Service. Even with the advent and now ubiquity of the internet, the Kremlin has moved to block online sites that it deems “undesirable,” or detrimental to its grip on power. Putin and his cronies have even resorted to the murder of prominent journalists.
International outlets have sometimes been spared the harsh treatment that Russian news sources have received. But Putin is now dialing the pressure up on foreign media companies, too. Russian authorities have recently used the country’s “foreign agent” law to fine and effectively ban Western news outlets that don’t support the Kremlin propaganda line. Since January 2021, Russia’s media regulator has issued hundreds of violations that will result in nearly $1 million in fines for RFE/RL for “non-compliance” with the law—more fines are on the way.
Investigative journalism in Russia has been more successful of late, led by Alexei Navalny’s YouTube videos exposing Kremlin corruption and uncovering the operations of the FSB’s brazen death squads. But the triumphs of these investigations speak more to the skill of Navalny and his team than an open media environment. Navalny now sits in prison, Russian propaganda continues to surge, and independent news outlets are more threatened than ever.
The Kremlin’s multi-faceted pressure campaign deprives Russian society of quality news and information, making it more difficult for Russians to pursue the fundamental freedoms they deserve.
Can independent media survive under such intense pressure from the Kremlin? What can the West do to support a vibrant free press in Russia?
Speakers:
Jamie Fly
President and CEO of RFE/RL
Kiryl Sukhotski
Regional director for Europe and TV production at RFE/RL,
Maria Lipman
Senior Associate at the PONARS Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies at George Washington University
Dylan Myles-Primakoff
Nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, join to discuss the Russian media landscape and the challenges ahead.
Melinda Haring (Moderator)
Deputy Director of the Eurasia Center
2. Minsk II and the Donbas Conflict: Six Years Later | March 15, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
This February marks six years since the Minsk 2 Protocol was agreed upon by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany in order to work toward ending the conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas region. Since then, the implementation of Minsk 2 by the OSCE-led Trilateral Contact Group has been difficult, with some moments of stabilization but an overall failure to move toward the conflict resolution phase. Additionally, recent ceasefire violations are evidence that the situation is worsening. In this panel, experts will discuss what is happening on the Donbas frontline today, assess the implementation of Minsk 2, and share major achievements and shortcomings on the development of the situation in the region.
Speakers:
Hannah Shelest
Director of Security, Programmes, Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”; Editor-in-Chief, UA: Ukraine Analytica
Brian Milakovsky
Independent Analyst
Mykhailo Minakov
Senior Advisor; Editor-in-Chief, Focus Ukraine Blog
William E Pomeranz (Moderator)
Deputy Director, Kennan Institute
3. MEI: Syria Annual Conference: The Geopolitics of Syria’s Crisis | March 16, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
The Middle East Institute’s Syria Program is pleased to host its annual Syria Policy Conference, featuring three panels of Syrian figures and leading experts. Marking the ten year anniversary of the 2011 uprising, this inaugural conference is especially poignant, with a path towards stability and justice still some way away. What are the lessons learned from the past decade and what does the future hold? What avenues remain open for progress on the diplomatic front; what options are available to ameliorate the worsening humanitarian situation; what role will Syrians from all backgrounds play in determining what comes next? These are many more questions will be the subject of the conference agenda below.
Aleksandr Aksenenok
Vice President, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC); Former Ambassador to Syria
Karim Sadjadpour
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace & Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University
Andrew Tabler
Martin J. Gross Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy; former Senior Advisor, U.S. State Department
Gonul Tol
Director, Turkey Program, Middle East Institute
Liz Sly (Moderator)
Beirut Bureau Chief, Washington Post
4. The State of Peacebuilding in Africa: Lessons Learned for Policy Makers and Practitioners | March 16, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
Please join the Wilson Center Africa Program for the launch of The State of Peacebuilding in Africa: Lessons Learned for Policymakers and Practitioners, edited by Dr. Terence McNamee and Dr. Monde Muyangwa, on Tuesday, March 16, 2021, from 9:00-10:45 AM Eastern Time US (EDT). Key topics for discussion include peacebuilding frameworks, strategies and tools, as well as the role of international actors.
Speakers:
Dr. Paul D. Williams
Professor of International Affairs and Associate Director M.A Security Policy Studies Program, The George Washington University
Dr. Fritz Nganje
Former Public Policy Scholar; Associate Professor of International Relations, University of Johannesburg
Dr. Chukwuemeka B. Eze
Executive Director, West Africa Network for Peacebuilding (WANEP)
Ms. Lisa Sharland
Deputy Director of Defence, Strategy and National Security, and Head of International Program, Australian Strategic Policy Institute
Dr. Franklin Oduro
Resident Program Director for Elections, Ethiopia Office, National Democratic Institute for International Affairs
Dr. Phil Clark
Professor of International Politics, SOAS University of London
Andrea Johnson (Moderator)
Program Officer, Higher Education and Research in Africa and Peacebuilding in Africa, Carnegie Cooperation of New York
5. The “Minneapolis Effect”: Hostility Toward Law Enforcement, Police Officer Passivity, and the Rise of Violent Crime | March 16, 2021 | 3:00 PM ET | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here
The phenomenon of cities with disengaged officers and higher levels of serious violent crimes has come to be called the “Minneapolis Effect.” Join us for a discussion with two scholars who have recently illuminated this criminological trend.
Speakers:
Honorable Paul Cassell
Professor of Criminal Law, University of Utah
Lawrence Rosenthal
Professor of Law, Chapman University
Paul J Larkin Jr. (Moderator)
Rumpel Senior Legal Research Fellow
6. Asset, Liability, or Both—The Future of U.S.-Saudi Relations | March 17, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace| Register Here
With the release of the incriminating U.S. intelligence report on the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, President Biden—in a sharp break with the Trump administration—has clearly outlined his intention to recalibrate the U.S.-Saudi relationship to ensure it advances U.S. interests and values.
Are the administration’s initial steps sufficient to rebalance the relationship? Or does more need to be done? What impact has this shift had on Saudi internal politics, specifically on the standing of the crown prince? And even more fundamentally, with the fracturing of the decades-long oil-for-security trade-off, what are the U.S. interests in its relationship with the kingdom in 2021?
Speakers:
Yasmine Farouk
Visiting Fellow, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Bernard Haykel
Professor of Near Eastern Studies, Princeton University
Robin Wright
Columnist, New Yorker; Fellow at US Institute of Peace and Wilson Center
Aaron David Miller (Moderator)
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
7. Black Sea Connectivity and the South Caucasus | March 17, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute| Register Here
The Black Sea historically served as a major trading route connecting Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia to the Mediterranean world. There is a growing interest in this region from major regional and non-regional actors. In addition to the security dimension, the Black Sea is attracting growing commercial interests. In order to maximize trade opportunities for all parties involved, there is a need for renewed effort to facilitate Black Sea connectivity, in order to manage post-Covid recovery, and achieve significant synergy of resources and markets for years to come. More investment is needed for infrastructure development and harmonization of tariffs and border crossing procedures, with the common aim of increasing competitiveness of the entire transit and transportation system.
The Middle East Institute’s (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative is pleased to host a panel of experts who will discuss Black Sea Connectivity and its South Caucasus Extension for greater commercial benefits to the wider Black Sea region.
Speakers:
Ivo Konstantinov
Commercial counselor and trade attache, Embassy of the Republic of Bulgaria
Mamuka Tsereteli
Non-resident fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
Andrii Tsokol
Associate Director, Infrastructure Europe, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Iulia Joja (Moderator)
Senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
8. Pursuing War Crimes: The Meaning of Justice in the Syria Context | March 18, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council| Register Here
Ten years into the tragic Syrian conflict, the cost of the violence and violations stretch beyond imagination. More than half a million Syrian lives have been lost, 12 million have been displaced, and millions maimed and injured. More than 100,000 Syrians have been forcibly disappeared, while tens of thousands languish in official and makeshift detention centers. Those who should be held to account have evaded justice and, in some cases have seen their power grow.
Over the past few years, leading international criminal lawyers, prosecutors, and civil society groups committed to accountability have filed cases against perpetrators in European courts. Where do these cases stand today and what are the prospects for holding criminals accountable? What role, if any, can US and European policy makers play in supporting the quest to seek justice for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Syria?
Speakers:
Ambassador Stephen J. Rapp
Senior Fellow, US Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Dr. Yasmine Nahlawi
Legal Consultant
Sareta Ashraph
Senior Adviser, US Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Jomana Qaddour
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East
Atlantic Council
9. Can Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Deliver Peace? | March 18, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | US Institute of Peace| Register Here
The Global Fragility Act and U.S. Strategy on Women, Peace and Security offer tools for realizing these goals and build upon decades of lessons learned from research and programming in the field. But important questions remain if a new approach consistent with principles of diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) is to be operationalized. What should the role of local stakeholders and beneficiaries be in establishing DEI principles and evaluating program impact? And what are the hurdles to bringing these more inclusive approaches to scale?
Join USIP and the Heller School for Social Policy and Management at Brandeis University for a timely discussion on how applying the principles of diversity, equity, and inclusion can contribute to more effective U.S. peace and development programs around the world. Panelists will consider efforts to meaningfully engage marginalized or underrepresented groups such as women, youth, and social movement actors to support locally driven peacebuilding.
Speakers:
Corinne Graff, (Introductory Remarks)
Senior Advisor, Conflict Prevention and Fragility, U.S. Institute of Peace
Susanna Campbell
Assistant Professor, School of International Service, American University
Rosa Emilia Salamanca
Executive Director, Corporación de Investigación y Acción Social y Económica (CIASE) in Colombia
Joseph Sany
Vice President, Africa Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Pamina Firchow (Moderator)
Associate Professor of Conflict Resolution and Coexistence, Brandeis University
10. Maritime Security Dialogue: Congressional Perspective on the Future of the US Navy |March 18, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | US Institute of Peace| Register Here
The Maritime Security Dialogue series brings together CSIS and the U.S. Naval Institute, two of the nation’s most respected non-partisan institutions. The series highlights the particular challenges facing the Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard, from national level maritime policy to naval concept development and program design. Given budgetary challenges, technological opportunities, and ongoing strategic adjustments, the nature and employment of U.S. maritime forces are likely to undergo significant change over the next ten to fifteen years. The Maritime Security Dialogue provides an unmatched forum for discussion of these issues with the nation’s maritime leaders.
Speakers:
Representative Mike Gallagher (R-WI)
Co-Chair, House National Security Caucus and Member, House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee and
Representative Elaine Luria (D-VA)
Vice Chair, House Armed Services Committee & Member, Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee
Dr. Seth Jones (Moderator)
Senior Vice President; Harold Brown Chair; and Director, International Security Program.
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Stevenson’s army, March 6
President Biden sent his first notification to Congress of his use of war powers.
John Bellinger analyzes it.
NYT reviews options being considered for a new AUMF.
Lawfare also analyzes Biden’s use of Defense Production Act.
FP lists new Biden staffers on Middle East issues.
FT says Iran ready to resume nuclear talks, softening conditions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Foreign policy is also made by omission
Secretary of State Blinken outlined Biden Administration foreign policy yesterday. Here is the short version:
- End the pandemic
- Rebuild the economy
- Protect democracy
- Treat immigrants humanely but reduce incentives for migration
- Revitalize relations with friends
- Slow climate change
- Lead in hi tech
- Manage the rise of China
All of this is to be done with two things in mind: benefiting Americans and mobilizing other countries to carry part of the burden.
Tony is also at pains to underline that all these foreign policy issues have important domestic dimensions and that diplomacy will come before military action. The former is not new and underlay Trump’s “America First” slogan, especially on trade issues. The latter isn’t new either, but it is diametrically the opposite of what Trump was inclined to do. He thought cruise missiles and drones could get the US out of Syria without any need for talking with anyone. He tried talks with the Taliban, but did not wait for them to succeed before withdrawing half the troops.
It’s hard for me to quarrel with much of what Tony said. But there are things missing, as Tony acknowledges. Often in international affairs, as in domestic politics, what is not said is as significant as what is said.
Apart from the mention of China and some other geopolitical threats (Russia, Iran North Korea), there is no mention at all of specific regions and little of specific countries. My friends in the Middle East and the Balkans should take note. You are not going to get all the attention you crave. This is a major change from the traditional diplomatic “tour d’horizon” and suggests a shift from the State Department’s traditional emphasis on bilateral relations, as represented in its “geographic” bureaus and accentuated in the transactional Trump Administration, to “transnational” issues represented in State’s “functional” bureaus.
Among the “transnational” issues, one important one is omitted: nuclear non-proliferation. This may reflect a realistic recognition that with respect at least to North Korea and perhaps even Iran the cat is out of the bag: we are not going to be able to convince them to give up their nuclear ambitions entirely. It may also reflect a desire to leave room for some of our friends and allies to respond in kind. We’ve long exercised a tacit double standard with respect to Israel’s nuclear weapons. We might be willing to do so for other countries like Japan or South Korea whose neighbors threaten them with nukes. Trump famously uttered this heresy out loud, but his departure doesn’t make the issue evaporate. Confidence in the American nuclear umbrella fades as Pyongyang acquires the capacity to nuke Los Angeles.
Of course the urgent in foreign policy often comes before the merely important. Tony knows he won’t be able to ignore Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the Palestinians, democratic backsliding in the Balkans, the coup in Burma, or the agreed withdrawal from Afghanistan, which the Administration needs to either confirm or postpone. This Administration’s minds and hearts are in the right place. But that does not guarantee success. They face a challenging global environment, not least from all the omissions.
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Beyond success and failure lies attractive possibility
Michael Picard, a first-year Conflict Management student at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, writes:
The Wilson Center February 24 hosted a panel discussion on “Revisiting the Arab Uprisings at 10: Beyond Success and Failure.” that weighed the societal impacts of the Arab uprisings 10 years after they broke out. The term “Arab Spring” is a misnomer as the revolts did not result in democratic reform – the term Arab uprisings was used instead.
The key question was whether the Arab uprisings werea failure that is now over or are they the beginning of a longer process of societal transformation?
Panelists
Liz Sly (moderator): Beirut Bureau Chief, Washington Post
Amy Austin Holmes: International Affairs Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
Marina Ottaway: Middle East Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Asher Orkaby: Fellow, Transregional Institute, Princeton University
Anas El Gomati: Founder and Director, Sadeq Institute
Focusing specifically on the experiences of Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and Libya, the panelists presented and weighed the legacy of each country’s uprising 10 years on. Despite initial popular hope, there was never a serious expectation among observers that these states would transition to democracy overnight. What we have witnessed so far is the beginning of a long-term transformation of the MENA region. The memories of pre-uprising realities are still pertinent, and the youthful composition of Arab societies highlights the need for political and economic reforms.
Several panelists noted the US must examine how its policies and signals have impeded demoratic transitions. Regarding the 2013 coup that deposed Mohammed Morsi, Egypt’s first democratically elected leader, the African Union immediately expelled Egypt in response to this setback. The US did not react until the Rabaa massacre, which killed hundreds of pro-Morsi demonstrators. This reflects a broader theme: that the US must consider its democracy promotion goals and what its precise role ought to be in realizing these goals.
The panel also discussed the role of the Gulf monarchies in the Arab uprisings, noting that they saw such movements – both those originating domestically and in nearby states – as existential threats. Ottaway offered an anecdote about a Saudi official who anticipated expatriate students would demand greater civil liberties. This compelled the Gulf states to act – near unanimously – to crush domestic uprisings and take an active international role in promoting counterrevolutions. This has caused immense destruction throughout the region, derailing local conflict management efforts and restraining Gulf proxies from negotiating settlements.
Ottaway observed that perhaps the most pessimistic lesson of the Arab uprisings was that removal of large, unitary, Arab regimes that dominated political life has revealed that the building blocks of democracy were absent, with the narrow exception of Tunisia. Tunisia was able to avoid fates similar to Libya and Yemen because it is a) socially homogenous with relatively few ethnic and sectarian minorities, and b) politically pluralistic. Historically salient political organizations already existed and held society together, albeit in uneasy, unstable balances.
The panelists spoke to new dynamics and outcomes that continue to emerge. Several elaborated on “second generation” protest movements in Lebanon, Iraq, Algeria, and Sudan. In these contexts, protestors demonstrated greater understanding of how their movements could be more inclusive, better organized, and better at extracting meaningful government concessions. This has helped them avoid the high-stakes losses of the “first generation” protest movements.
The panelists noted unanimously that the Arab uprisings have had positive implications for women and some minorities. In several countries, women initiated the initial protest movements, focused on detention of their kin. In war-torn states, women have taken on a more active role in daily economic and social life. The panelists hope that these gains will be locked in with female participation quotas in emergent governance institutions. In Egypt, the Nubian minority gained recognition in the constitution and procured the right to return to ancestral lands from which they were forcibly displaced.
Conclusion
The panel agreed that the Arab uprisings were not failures that are now over but the beginning of a longer transitional process and state-building experiment. Orkaby noted these uprisings sparked the creation of local civil society organizations or strengthened existing ones. El Gomati noted the renewal of social protests in Lebanon, Iraq, Algeria, and Sudan, indicating civilians are still willing to take to the streets. Austin Holmes emphasized that much will depend on how the Biden administration postures itself toward the region, especially with regard to countries that have retained despotic features.
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