Tag: Middle East
Peace Picks | April 5 – 9
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
1. The Cold War in the Middle East or the Middle East in the Cold War? | April 5, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
Speakers
Lorenz Lüthi: Associate Professor, McGill University
Eliza Gheorghe (moderator): Scholar, Romanian Cultural Institute
Guy Laron: Senior Lecturer, Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Alexander Shelby: Professor, Indian River College
In this discussion with Guy Laron, Alexander Shelby and Eliza Gheorghe, Professor Lüthi will discuss the Middle East angle of his book, with a focus on the Arab-Israeli conflict. Long one of the most controversial and significant issues of the 20th century, Professor Lüthi removes the “great power” lense and seeks to provide the perspective of those parties directly involved, Israel and the Arab states.
2. Preventing nuclear proliferation and reassuring America’s allies | April 7, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Speakers
Sec. Chuck Hagel: Former US Secretary of Defense
Christopher Ford: Former Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Non-Proliferation
Elaine Bunn: Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy
Missy Ryan (moderator): Reporter, Washington Post
A task force, co-chaired by Chuck Hagel, Malcolm Rifkind, and Kevin Rudd, with Ivo Daalder, argues that fraying American alliances and a rapidly changing security environment have shaken America’s nuclear security guarantees and threaten the 50-year-old nuclear nonproliferation regime. Please join Sec. Chuck Hagel, former US Secretary of Defense; Dr. Christopher Ford, former assistant secretary of state for international security and non-proliferation; and Ms. Elaine Bunn, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and missile defense policy, for a discussion moderated by Washington Post national security reporter Ms. Missy Ryan on preventing nuclear proliferation, strengthening America’s nuclear security guarantees, and a recent Chicago Council of Global Affairs report on these issues.
3. Mitigating the Impact of Sanctions on Humanitarian Action | April 7, 2021 | 9:30 AM – 10:15 AM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Speakers
Representative Andy Levin: Vice Chair, House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia, and Nonproliferation
Jacob Kurtzer: Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda
J. Stephen Morrison: Senior Vice President and Director, Global Health Policy Center
To discuss the impact of sanctions on humanitarian assistance, the CSIS Humanitarian Agenda welcomes Congressman Andy Levin (D-MI-9), Vice Chair, House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia, and Nonproliferation, and author of the “Enhancing North Korea Humanitarian Assistance Act”. This armchair discussion, hosted by Jacob Kurtzer, Director and Senior Fellow of the Humanitarian Agenda, will explore some of the consequences of sanctions on civilian populations and policy solutions that could mitigate their humanitarian impact.
4. China’s sanctions on Europe | April 8, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 10:30 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Speakers
Reinhard Bütikofer: Member of the European Parliament
Miriam Lexmann: Member of the European Parliament
Dovilé Sakaliene: Member of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania
Thomas Wright (moderator): Director, Center on the United States and Europe
The Chinese government recently imposed sanctions on EU and U.K. parliamentarians, think tanks, academics, and EU committees. Beijing said its sanctions were a response to European sanctions on officials connected to human rights violations in Xinjiang. China’s sanctions have been condemned by EU and U.K. officials as an attack on democracy and are likely to complicate the ratification of the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). On April 8, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings will host parliamentarians targeted and sanctioned by China for a panel discussion on China’s actions, what they mean for future EU and U.K. relations with China, and the role of human rights in foreign policy.
5. “Taking Stock of the Arab Uprisings” | April 8, 2021 | 1:30 PM – 2:45 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Speakers
Michael Hanna: Senior Fellow, The Century Foundation
Tarek Masoud (moderator): Faculty Director, Middle East Institute
As the initial promise of the Arab uprisings has collapsed and curdled, many have revisited nagging questions posed by political dysfunction in the Arab world. Special guest Michael Hanna, Senior Fellow of The Century Foundation joins MEI to discuss the question of whether or not the Arab uprisings were a failure and what this all means for the new Biden Administration.
6. How Can Middle-Power Democracies Renovate Global Democracy Support? | April 8, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Ken Godfrey: Executive Director, the European Partnership for Democracy
Rachel Kleinfield: Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program
Roland Paris: Professor, University of Ottawa
Lisa Peterson: Senior Official for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights
As autocracy engulfs ever more countries, how should the world’s remaining democracies respond? Many are struggling to address internal demands from aggrieved citizens and pandemic pressures, while fending off attempts from authoritarian governments to undermine them from without and within. The conventional menu of democracy support tools seems too meager to meet this geopolitical moment. Germany wants a Marshall Plan for Democracy; Sweden emphasizes a Drive for Democracy. Can middle power democracies enact a strategy commensurate with the challenges at hand?
7. Building Resilience in the Sahel in an Era of Forced Displacement | April 8, 2021 | 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
Speakers
Lauren Herzer Risi (moderator): Project Director, Environmental Change and Security Program
Ngozi Amu: Team Leader, UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel
Elizabeth Ferris: Professor, Georgetown University
Florian Morier: Head of Stabilization, UNDP Cameroon
WIse Nzikie Ngasa: Justice and Resilience Program Director – Mali, Mercy Corps
Kayly Ober: Program Manager, Climate Displacement Program, Refugees International
In the Sahel, a growing crisis driven by ongoing violence and devastation wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and food insecurity, has led to the internal displacement of more than 2 million people—four times the number displaced just 2 years ago. This humanitarian crisis demands an urgent response to ensure adequate provision of shelter, food, and water for those forced from their homes. It also points to a need for comprehensive approaches and sustained investments to address the drivers of forced displacement in the region. Join the Wilson Center and Population Institute for a discussion with experts who are working across disciplines to identify entry points for policies and programs that strengthen the resilience of communities across the region.
8. AI and democracy: Transformative and disruptive potential | April 8, 2021 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET | Chatham House | Register Here
Speakers
Marjorie Buchser: Executive Director, Digital Society Initiative
Cornelia Kutterer: Senior Director, Rule of Law & Responsible Tech
Matthias Spielcamp: Co-Founder and Executive Director, AlgorithmWatch
Philip Howard: Professor, Oxford Internet Institute
Rebecca Finlay: Acting Executive Director, Partnership on AI
This panel discusses the transformative potential of AI and how policymakers, technology companies and civil society can work together to make sure that these advancements are for the betterment of, rather than a detriment to, democratic norms and practices. It also explores some existing and future AI applications, encouraging participants to share their views, hopes and concerns regarding AI and democracy.
9. The Future of U.S. Cultural Diplomacy | April 9, 2021 | 1:00 PM – 2:15 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Speakers
Nancy Szalwinski: Director of the Cultural Division in the Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs
Ambassador Nicholas Burns: Professor, Harvard Kennedy School
Carla Dirlikov Canales (moderator): Co-Creator, Culture Summit
Nancy Szalwinski, Director of Cultural Programs, Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs, U.S. Department of State, and Ambassador Nicholas Burns, Goodman Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations at Harvard Kennedy School will discuss ways in which cultural diplomacy can play a significant role in furthering U.S. foreign policy objectives and the Biden administration’s promise to “restore America’s global standing.” The conversation will focus on current cultural diplomacy priorities for the United States and how changing technologies, geopolitical trends, and recent events have led to new approaches, initiatives, and challenges. Carla Dirlikov Canales will moderate the discussion.
Peace Picks | March 15 – March 19, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Free to Leave? Independent Media in Russia | March 15, 2021 | 9:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council| Register Here
Independent media in Russia have long faced harassment and intimidation from the Kremlin. Indeed, when Vladimir Putin first rose to the Russian presidency in 2000, he quickly stifled the country’s large national broadcasters, shuttered commercial media outlets, and began a campaign to force domestic affiliates to break ties with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) Russian Service. Even with the advent and now ubiquity of the internet, the Kremlin has moved to block online sites that it deems “undesirable,” or detrimental to its grip on power. Putin and his cronies have even resorted to the murder of prominent journalists.
International outlets have sometimes been spared the harsh treatment that Russian news sources have received. But Putin is now dialing the pressure up on foreign media companies, too. Russian authorities have recently used the country’s “foreign agent” law to fine and effectively ban Western news outlets that don’t support the Kremlin propaganda line. Since January 2021, Russia’s media regulator has issued hundreds of violations that will result in nearly $1 million in fines for RFE/RL for “non-compliance” with the law—more fines are on the way.
Investigative journalism in Russia has been more successful of late, led by Alexei Navalny’s YouTube videos exposing Kremlin corruption and uncovering the operations of the FSB’s brazen death squads. But the triumphs of these investigations speak more to the skill of Navalny and his team than an open media environment. Navalny now sits in prison, Russian propaganda continues to surge, and independent news outlets are more threatened than ever.
The Kremlin’s multi-faceted pressure campaign deprives Russian society of quality news and information, making it more difficult for Russians to pursue the fundamental freedoms they deserve.
Can independent media survive under such intense pressure from the Kremlin? What can the West do to support a vibrant free press in Russia?
Speakers:
Jamie Fly
President and CEO of RFE/RL
Kiryl Sukhotski
Regional director for Europe and TV production at RFE/RL,
Maria Lipman
Senior Associate at the PONARS Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies at George Washington University
Dylan Myles-Primakoff
Nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, join to discuss the Russian media landscape and the challenges ahead.
Melinda Haring (Moderator)
Deputy Director of the Eurasia Center
2. Minsk II and the Donbas Conflict: Six Years Later | March 15, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
This February marks six years since the Minsk 2 Protocol was agreed upon by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany in order to work toward ending the conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas region. Since then, the implementation of Minsk 2 by the OSCE-led Trilateral Contact Group has been difficult, with some moments of stabilization but an overall failure to move toward the conflict resolution phase. Additionally, recent ceasefire violations are evidence that the situation is worsening. In this panel, experts will discuss what is happening on the Donbas frontline today, assess the implementation of Minsk 2, and share major achievements and shortcomings on the development of the situation in the region.
Speakers:
Hannah Shelest
Director of Security, Programmes, Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”; Editor-in-Chief, UA: Ukraine Analytica
Brian Milakovsky
Independent Analyst
Mykhailo Minakov
Senior Advisor; Editor-in-Chief, Focus Ukraine Blog
William E Pomeranz (Moderator)
Deputy Director, Kennan Institute
3. MEI: Syria Annual Conference: The Geopolitics of Syria’s Crisis | March 16, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
The Middle East Institute’s Syria Program is pleased to host its annual Syria Policy Conference, featuring three panels of Syrian figures and leading experts. Marking the ten year anniversary of the 2011 uprising, this inaugural conference is especially poignant, with a path towards stability and justice still some way away. What are the lessons learned from the past decade and what does the future hold? What avenues remain open for progress on the diplomatic front; what options are available to ameliorate the worsening humanitarian situation; what role will Syrians from all backgrounds play in determining what comes next? These are many more questions will be the subject of the conference agenda below.
Aleksandr Aksenenok
Vice President, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC); Former Ambassador to Syria
Karim Sadjadpour
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace & Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University
Andrew Tabler
Martin J. Gross Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy; former Senior Advisor, U.S. State Department
Gonul Tol
Director, Turkey Program, Middle East Institute
Liz Sly (Moderator)
Beirut Bureau Chief, Washington Post
4. The State of Peacebuilding in Africa: Lessons Learned for Policy Makers and Practitioners | March 16, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
Please join the Wilson Center Africa Program for the launch of The State of Peacebuilding in Africa: Lessons Learned for Policymakers and Practitioners, edited by Dr. Terence McNamee and Dr. Monde Muyangwa, on Tuesday, March 16, 2021, from 9:00-10:45 AM Eastern Time US (EDT). Key topics for discussion include peacebuilding frameworks, strategies and tools, as well as the role of international actors.
Speakers:
Dr. Paul D. Williams
Professor of International Affairs and Associate Director M.A Security Policy Studies Program, The George Washington University
Dr. Fritz Nganje
Former Public Policy Scholar; Associate Professor of International Relations, University of Johannesburg
Dr. Chukwuemeka B. Eze
Executive Director, West Africa Network for Peacebuilding (WANEP)
Ms. Lisa Sharland
Deputy Director of Defence, Strategy and National Security, and Head of International Program, Australian Strategic Policy Institute
Dr. Franklin Oduro
Resident Program Director for Elections, Ethiopia Office, National Democratic Institute for International Affairs
Dr. Phil Clark
Professor of International Politics, SOAS University of London
Andrea Johnson (Moderator)
Program Officer, Higher Education and Research in Africa and Peacebuilding in Africa, Carnegie Cooperation of New York
5. The “Minneapolis Effect”: Hostility Toward Law Enforcement, Police Officer Passivity, and the Rise of Violent Crime | March 16, 2021 | 3:00 PM ET | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here
The phenomenon of cities with disengaged officers and higher levels of serious violent crimes has come to be called the “Minneapolis Effect.” Join us for a discussion with two scholars who have recently illuminated this criminological trend.
Speakers:
Honorable Paul Cassell
Professor of Criminal Law, University of Utah
Lawrence Rosenthal
Professor of Law, Chapman University
Paul J Larkin Jr. (Moderator)
Rumpel Senior Legal Research Fellow
6. Asset, Liability, or Both—The Future of U.S.-Saudi Relations | March 17, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace| Register Here
With the release of the incriminating U.S. intelligence report on the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, President Biden—in a sharp break with the Trump administration—has clearly outlined his intention to recalibrate the U.S.-Saudi relationship to ensure it advances U.S. interests and values.
Are the administration’s initial steps sufficient to rebalance the relationship? Or does more need to be done? What impact has this shift had on Saudi internal politics, specifically on the standing of the crown prince? And even more fundamentally, with the fracturing of the decades-long oil-for-security trade-off, what are the U.S. interests in its relationship with the kingdom in 2021?
Speakers:
Yasmine Farouk
Visiting Fellow, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Bernard Haykel
Professor of Near Eastern Studies, Princeton University
Robin Wright
Columnist, New Yorker; Fellow at US Institute of Peace and Wilson Center
Aaron David Miller (Moderator)
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
7. Black Sea Connectivity and the South Caucasus | March 17, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute| Register Here
The Black Sea historically served as a major trading route connecting Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia to the Mediterranean world. There is a growing interest in this region from major regional and non-regional actors. In addition to the security dimension, the Black Sea is attracting growing commercial interests. In order to maximize trade opportunities for all parties involved, there is a need for renewed effort to facilitate Black Sea connectivity, in order to manage post-Covid recovery, and achieve significant synergy of resources and markets for years to come. More investment is needed for infrastructure development and harmonization of tariffs and border crossing procedures, with the common aim of increasing competitiveness of the entire transit and transportation system.
The Middle East Institute’s (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative is pleased to host a panel of experts who will discuss Black Sea Connectivity and its South Caucasus Extension for greater commercial benefits to the wider Black Sea region.
Speakers:
Ivo Konstantinov
Commercial counselor and trade attache, Embassy of the Republic of Bulgaria
Mamuka Tsereteli
Non-resident fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
Andrii Tsokol
Associate Director, Infrastructure Europe, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Iulia Joja (Moderator)
Senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
8. Pursuing War Crimes: The Meaning of Justice in the Syria Context | March 18, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council| Register Here
Ten years into the tragic Syrian conflict, the cost of the violence and violations stretch beyond imagination. More than half a million Syrian lives have been lost, 12 million have been displaced, and millions maimed and injured. More than 100,000 Syrians have been forcibly disappeared, while tens of thousands languish in official and makeshift detention centers. Those who should be held to account have evaded justice and, in some cases have seen their power grow.
Over the past few years, leading international criminal lawyers, prosecutors, and civil society groups committed to accountability have filed cases against perpetrators in European courts. Where do these cases stand today and what are the prospects for holding criminals accountable? What role, if any, can US and European policy makers play in supporting the quest to seek justice for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Syria?
Speakers:
Ambassador Stephen J. Rapp
Senior Fellow, US Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Dr. Yasmine Nahlawi
Legal Consultant
Sareta Ashraph
Senior Adviser, US Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Jomana Qaddour
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East
Atlantic Council
9. Can Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Deliver Peace? | March 18, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | US Institute of Peace| Register Here
The Global Fragility Act and U.S. Strategy on Women, Peace and Security offer tools for realizing these goals and build upon decades of lessons learned from research and programming in the field. But important questions remain if a new approach consistent with principles of diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) is to be operationalized. What should the role of local stakeholders and beneficiaries be in establishing DEI principles and evaluating program impact? And what are the hurdles to bringing these more inclusive approaches to scale?
Join USIP and the Heller School for Social Policy and Management at Brandeis University for a timely discussion on how applying the principles of diversity, equity, and inclusion can contribute to more effective U.S. peace and development programs around the world. Panelists will consider efforts to meaningfully engage marginalized or underrepresented groups such as women, youth, and social movement actors to support locally driven peacebuilding.
Speakers:
Corinne Graff, (Introductory Remarks)
Senior Advisor, Conflict Prevention and Fragility, U.S. Institute of Peace
Susanna Campbell
Assistant Professor, School of International Service, American University
Rosa Emilia Salamanca
Executive Director, Corporación de Investigación y Acción Social y Económica (CIASE) in Colombia
Joseph Sany
Vice President, Africa Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Pamina Firchow (Moderator)
Associate Professor of Conflict Resolution and Coexistence, Brandeis University
10. Maritime Security Dialogue: Congressional Perspective on the Future of the US Navy |March 18, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | US Institute of Peace| Register Here
The Maritime Security Dialogue series brings together CSIS and the U.S. Naval Institute, two of the nation’s most respected non-partisan institutions. The series highlights the particular challenges facing the Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard, from national level maritime policy to naval concept development and program design. Given budgetary challenges, technological opportunities, and ongoing strategic adjustments, the nature and employment of U.S. maritime forces are likely to undergo significant change over the next ten to fifteen years. The Maritime Security Dialogue provides an unmatched forum for discussion of these issues with the nation’s maritime leaders.
Speakers:
Representative Mike Gallagher (R-WI)
Co-Chair, House National Security Caucus and Member, House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee and
Representative Elaine Luria (D-VA)
Vice Chair, House Armed Services Committee & Member, Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee
Dr. Seth Jones (Moderator)
Senior Vice President; Harold Brown Chair; and Director, International Security Program.
Stevenson’s army, March 6
President Biden sent his first notification to Congress of his use of war powers.
John Bellinger analyzes it.
NYT reviews options being considered for a new AUMF.
Lawfare also analyzes Biden’s use of Defense Production Act.
FP lists new Biden staffers on Middle East issues.
FT says Iran ready to resume nuclear talks, softening conditions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Foreign policy is also made by omission
Secretary of State Blinken outlined Biden Administration foreign policy yesterday. Here is the short version:
- End the pandemic
- Rebuild the economy
- Protect democracy
- Treat immigrants humanely but reduce incentives for migration
- Revitalize relations with friends
- Slow climate change
- Lead in hi tech
- Manage the rise of China
All of this is to be done with two things in mind: benefiting Americans and mobilizing other countries to carry part of the burden.
Tony is also at pains to underline that all these foreign policy issues have important domestic dimensions and that diplomacy will come before military action. The former is not new and underlay Trump’s “America First” slogan, especially on trade issues. The latter isn’t new either, but it is diametrically the opposite of what Trump was inclined to do. He thought cruise missiles and drones could get the US out of Syria without any need for talking with anyone. He tried talks with the Taliban, but did not wait for them to succeed before withdrawing half the troops.
It’s hard for me to quarrel with much of what Tony said. But there are things missing, as Tony acknowledges. Often in international affairs, as in domestic politics, what is not said is as significant as what is said.
Apart from the mention of China and some other geopolitical threats (Russia, Iran North Korea), there is no mention at all of specific regions and little of specific countries. My friends in the Middle East and the Balkans should take note. You are not going to get all the attention you crave. This is a major change from the traditional diplomatic “tour d’horizon” and suggests a shift from the State Department’s traditional emphasis on bilateral relations, as represented in its “geographic” bureaus and accentuated in the transactional Trump Administration, to “transnational” issues represented in State’s “functional” bureaus.
Among the “transnational” issues, one important one is omitted: nuclear non-proliferation. This may reflect a realistic recognition that with respect at least to North Korea and perhaps even Iran the cat is out of the bag: we are not going to be able to convince them to give up their nuclear ambitions entirely. It may also reflect a desire to leave room for some of our friends and allies to respond in kind. We’ve long exercised a tacit double standard with respect to Israel’s nuclear weapons. We might be willing to do so for other countries like Japan or South Korea whose neighbors threaten them with nukes. Trump famously uttered this heresy out loud, but his departure doesn’t make the issue evaporate. Confidence in the American nuclear umbrella fades as Pyongyang acquires the capacity to nuke Los Angeles.
Of course the urgent in foreign policy often comes before the merely important. Tony knows he won’t be able to ignore Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the Palestinians, democratic backsliding in the Balkans, the coup in Burma, or the agreed withdrawal from Afghanistan, which the Administration needs to either confirm or postpone. This Administration’s minds and hearts are in the right place. But that does not guarantee success. They face a challenging global environment, not least from all the omissions.
Beyond success and failure lies attractive possibility
Michael Picard, a first-year Conflict Management student at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, writes:
The Wilson Center February 24 hosted a panel discussion on “Revisiting the Arab Uprisings at 10: Beyond Success and Failure.” that weighed the societal impacts of the Arab uprisings 10 years after they broke out. The term “Arab Spring” is a misnomer as the revolts did not result in democratic reform – the term Arab uprisings was used instead.
The key question was whether the Arab uprisings werea failure that is now over or are they the beginning of a longer process of societal transformation?
Panelists
Liz Sly (moderator): Beirut Bureau Chief, Washington Post
Amy Austin Holmes: International Affairs Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
Marina Ottaway: Middle East Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Asher Orkaby: Fellow, Transregional Institute, Princeton University
Anas El Gomati: Founder and Director, Sadeq Institute
Focusing specifically on the experiences of Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and Libya, the panelists presented and weighed the legacy of each country’s uprising 10 years on. Despite initial popular hope, there was never a serious expectation among observers that these states would transition to democracy overnight. What we have witnessed so far is the beginning of a long-term transformation of the MENA region. The memories of pre-uprising realities are still pertinent, and the youthful composition of Arab societies highlights the need for political and economic reforms.
Several panelists noted the US must examine how its policies and signals have impeded demoratic transitions. Regarding the 2013 coup that deposed Mohammed Morsi, Egypt’s first democratically elected leader, the African Union immediately expelled Egypt in response to this setback. The US did not react until the Rabaa massacre, which killed hundreds of pro-Morsi demonstrators. This reflects a broader theme: that the US must consider its democracy promotion goals and what its precise role ought to be in realizing these goals.
The panel also discussed the role of the Gulf monarchies in the Arab uprisings, noting that they saw such movements – both those originating domestically and in nearby states – as existential threats. Ottaway offered an anecdote about a Saudi official who anticipated expatriate students would demand greater civil liberties. This compelled the Gulf states to act – near unanimously – to crush domestic uprisings and take an active international role in promoting counterrevolutions. This has caused immense destruction throughout the region, derailing local conflict management efforts and restraining Gulf proxies from negotiating settlements.
Ottaway observed that perhaps the most pessimistic lesson of the Arab uprisings was that removal of large, unitary, Arab regimes that dominated political life has revealed that the building blocks of democracy were absent, with the narrow exception of Tunisia. Tunisia was able to avoid fates similar to Libya and Yemen because it is a) socially homogenous with relatively few ethnic and sectarian minorities, and b) politically pluralistic. Historically salient political organizations already existed and held society together, albeit in uneasy, unstable balances.
The panelists spoke to new dynamics and outcomes that continue to emerge. Several elaborated on “second generation” protest movements in Lebanon, Iraq, Algeria, and Sudan. In these contexts, protestors demonstrated greater understanding of how their movements could be more inclusive, better organized, and better at extracting meaningful government concessions. This has helped them avoid the high-stakes losses of the “first generation” protest movements.
The panelists noted unanimously that the Arab uprisings have had positive implications for women and some minorities. In several countries, women initiated the initial protest movements, focused on detention of their kin. In war-torn states, women have taken on a more active role in daily economic and social life. The panelists hope that these gains will be locked in with female participation quotas in emergent governance institutions. In Egypt, the Nubian minority gained recognition in the constitution and procured the right to return to ancestral lands from which they were forcibly displaced.
Conclusion
The panel agreed that the Arab uprisings were not failures that are now over but the beginning of a longer transitional process and state-building experiment. Orkaby noted these uprisings sparked the creation of local civil society organizations or strengthened existing ones. El Gomati noted the renewal of social protests in Lebanon, Iraq, Algeria, and Sudan, indicating civilians are still willing to take to the streets. Austin Holmes emphasized that much will depend on how the Biden administration postures itself toward the region, especially with regard to countries that have retained despotic features.
Peace Picks | February 21 – February 26, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
1. Restoring Humanitarian Access in Ethiopia | February 22, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 9:45 AM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
The conflict in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region has displaced millions, and created massive humanitarian need. Despite negotiated agreements with the United Nations, the federal government and ethnic militias continue to impede humanitarian access, disrupting the delivery of lifesaving humanitarian assistance to over 2 million people in need. Humanitarian organizations, and the international community, continue to demand full cooperation from the Ethiopian government to allow unfettered access, with limited results.
Speakers
Jan Egeland: Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council
Catherine Weisner: Head of External Engagement at the UNHCR Regional Bureau for East Africa, Horn of Africa, and the Great Lakes
Daniel Bekele: Chief Commissioner of the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission
Jacob Kurtzer: Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda, CSIS
Judd Devermont: Director, Africa Program, CSIS
2. Priorities for U.S. Middle East Policy | February 22, 2021 | 9:05 AM – 10:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
During the week of February 22, the Center for Middle East Policy (CMEP) at Brookings will host an international conference — bringing together leaders and experts from the region, the United States, and elsewhere in the world — to discuss the top priorities for the United States and the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The conference, titled “The Middle East and the new U.S. administration,” marks the successful first year of CMEP’s “Sources of Middle East instability” project. This signature effort brings to bear the center’s expertise in regional geopolitics, deep understanding of key countries, and insight into U.S. foreign policymaking to reassess assumptions about the region and to offer a sound knowledge basis for future policy.
Speakers
Meghan L. O’Sullivan: Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, Director of the Geopolitics of Energy Project – Harvard University
Will Hurd: Former Representative, R. Texas, U.S. Congress
Suzanne Maloney: Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy
John R. Allen: President, Brookings Institution
3. A conversation with US Acting Assistant Secretary Joey Hood on economic priorities in the Middle East | February 23, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The stability of the Middle East is highly dependent on economic prosperity. Unfortunately, a weakening economic outlook due to the decline in oil prices and ongoing regional conflicts is exacerbated by the pandemic. The young and growing demographics of the region require swift action to create jobs. Without a long-term regional economic strategy that empowers the region’s rich human capital to contribute meaningfully to the economy, we will continue to go from one crisis to the next. The pandemic is providing a strong catalyst for change and sparking economic diversification and growth.
Speakers
Joey Hood: Acting Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, US Department of State
Amjad Ahmad (moderator): Director, empowerME, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council
4. Security Challenges in Africa: 2021 and Beyond | February 24, 2021 | 9:30 – 11:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Terrorism and violent extremism are arguably Africa’s greatest security threats in 2021. Local groups with international terror links are embedded in East, West, and Southern Africa. Their activities foment local conflicts and enable organized crime rackets—destabilizing already fragile political landscapes. Meanwhile, years of government-led security force interventions, many supported by U.S. and European governments, have not dislodged the insurgents. Unless local approaches that incorporate tactics beyond kinetic counterterrorism are included in strategies to prevent violent extremism, Africa’s many national and regional efforts will fail to deliver sustainable and credible peace.
Speakers
Dr. Alastair Reed: Senior Expert, U.S. Institute of Peace; Executive Director, RESOLVE Network
Dr. Akinola Olojo: Senior Researcher, Lake Chad Basin Program, Institute for Security Studies
Dr. Phoebe Donnelly: Research Fellow, International Peace Institute; Member of the RESOLVE Research Advisory Council
Dr. Joseph Sany (moderator): Vice President, Africa Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Bethany L. McGann: Program Officer, Program on Violent Extremism, U.S. Institute of Peace; Research and Project Manager, RESOLVE Network
5. Iranian public opinion in the Biden era | February 24, 2021 | 1:30 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The election of President Biden has raised expectations for a restoration of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and a de-escalation of US-Iran tensions. The Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland recently completed a poll of Iranian public opinion on these and other relevant issues. The Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative invites you to a discussion of the poll results and their implications for US-Iran diplomacy.
Speakers
Nancy Gallagher: Director, Center for International and Security Studies, University of Maryland
Ellie Geranmayeh: Senior Policy Fellow, Deputy Head of Middle East and North Africa Program, European Council on Foreign Relations
Ilan Goldenberg: Senior Fellow and Director of the Middle East Security Program, Center for a New American Security
Barbara Slavin (moderator): Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
6. A New Strategy for U.S. Engagement in North Africa | February 25, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Ten years after the Arab Spring, the socioeconomic and governance grievances that fueled the 2010-2011 uprisings are still prevalent across North Africa, and many have worsened in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite North African activists and officials pushing for reform, the region has received little U.S. support. Now, the new Biden administration has an opportunity to prioritize North Africa. The United States can ensure long-term stability by working with European and multilateral partners to counter Russian and Chinese influence and support the people’s demands for greater voice and accountability in the region.
Speakers
Daniel Rubinstein: Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa, International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Karim El Aynaoui: President, Policy Center for the New South
Nancy Okail: Visiting Scholar, Center for Development, Democracy, and Rule of Law, Stanford University
Youssef Cherif: Director, Columbia Global Centers Tunis
7. The Bull Moose and the Bear: Theodore Roosevelt and the Deep Origins of Russian Disinformation | February 25, 2021 | 12:15 PM – 2:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
During Theodore Roosevelt’s presidency, Jews in the Russian Empire were subjected to brutal pogroms that claimed thousands of lives. Americans rallied behind the embattled Jewish community and pressed Roosevelt to take action on the global stage. Russia, in turn, fed lies to the press in the United States in a bid to manipulate the public and the president. This seminar explores this little-known episode in U.S. history and considers its implications for Russian-American relations today.
Speakers
Andrew Porwancher: Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program
8. Palestine and the Progressive Movement in the United States | February 25, 2021 | 3:30 PM – 4:30 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
How can a U.S. policy toward Palestine align more closely with progressive principles? What are the chief obstacles to promoting a justice-oriented approach to Israel/Palestine in the American political sphere? Will the election of new progressive leaders to Congress make this goal more attainable than in the past? To answer these and other questions, please join MEI for a public webinar and book talk with Marc Lamont Hill and Mitchell Plitnick, coauthors of Except for Palestine: The Limits of Progressive Politics.
Speakers
Marc Lamont Hill: Steve Charles Professor of Media, Cities, and Solutions, Temple University
Mitchell Plitnick: President, ReThinking Foreign Policy
Khaled Elgindy (moderator): Senior Fellow, MEI
9. The Unraveling of Syria and America’s Race to Destroy the Most Dangerous Arsenal in the World | February 26, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
In August 2013, a massive sarin attack in the Damascus suburbs shocked the world and confronted the Obama White House with an agonizing choice: Whether to enforce the president’s “red line” threat with a military strike, or gamble on a diplomatic solution that offered the appealing prospect of the complete elimination of Syria’s strategic chemical weapons stockpile. Ultimately a deal was struck, and within days the race was on to extract and destroy hundreds of tons of lethal chemicals stashed in military bunkers across Syria, in the middle of a civil war. In his new book Red Line, journalist and author Joby Warrick draws from new documents and hundreds of interviews to reconstruct the key decision points as well as the unprecedented international effort to remove the weapons under fire and then—when no country was willing to accept Syria’s chemicals—to destroy them at sea.
Speakers
James F. Jeffrey: Chair, Middle East Program, Wilson Center
Joby Warrick: Public Policy Fellow, Wilson Center
Robert S. Litwick (moderator): Director, International Security Studies, Wilson Center
10. Dealing with conflicts and their aftermath | February 26, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
During the week of February 22, the Center for Middle East Policy (CMEP) at Brookings will host an international conference — bringing together leaders and experts from the region, the United States, and elsewhere in the world — to discuss the top priorities for the United States and the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The conference, titled “The Middle East and the new U.S. administration,” marks the successful first year of CMEP’s “Sources of Middle East instability” project. This signature effort brings to bear the center’s expertise in regional geopolitics, deep understanding of key countries, and insight into U.S. foreign policymaking to reassess assumptions about the region and to offer a sound knowledge basis for future policy.
Speakers
Gregory D. Johnson: Nonresident Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy
Jomana Qaddour: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Marsin Alshamary: Post-Doctoral Fellow, Foreign Policy
Daniel L. Byman: Senior Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy