Tag: Middle East
Peace Picks | February 15 – February 19, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Iraq: A Road Map for Recovery | February 16, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Iraq faces a range of complex and interrelated challenges across the political, socioeconomic, and security sectors. The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung and the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative, with support from DT Institute, convened a US-Europe-Iraq Track II Dialogue beginning in March 2020 and continued through virtual venues through December 2020. The dialogue brought together experts from the United States, Europe, and Iraq for a series of workshops to identify policies to help address Iraq’s cross-sector governance challenges. The attendees included a mix of former and current high-level officials and experts, all of whom are committed to a better future for Iraq.
In a new report, Iraq: A roadmap for recovery, Dr. C. Anthony Pfaff outlines some of the most important discussions, findings, and recommendations of the dialogue. The panel will explore some of the most important discussions of the working groups and share recommendations to support the government of Iraq on its road to recovery.
A link to the meeting will be sent to those who register to attend. The event is open to press and on-the-record.
Speakers:
Dr. Dhiaa Al-Asadi: Former Member of Iraqi Council of Representatives
Amb. Ramon Blecua: Former European Union Ambassador to Iraq
Amb. Feisal Al-Istrabadi: Founding Director, Center for the Study of the Middle East; Professor of the Practice of International Law and Diplomacy, Indiana University, Bloomington
Amb. Rend Al-Rahim: President, Iraq Foundation;
Former Ambassador of Iraq to the United States
Mr. Olin Wethington: Founder and Chairman
Wethington International LLC
Ms. Louisa Loveluck (Moderator): Baghdad Bureau Chief
The Washington Post
2. MENA’s Economic Outlook 2021: Challenges and Opportunities February 16, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
This is a critical year to revisit economic hopes for the region. The COVID-19 epidemic will continue to constrict national GDPs and as vaccinations accelerate, countries will be looking beyond survival to recovery. The incoming Biden administration will be in the early stages of formulating its Middle East strategy, of which economic development will play a central role. Policy makers will need a carefully considered approach to dealing with a region in the midst of economic and political transformation. We believe this discussion will provide much needed clarity on key questions regarding economic opportunities and challenges facing MENA countries.
Speakers:
Jihad Azour: Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund
James F. Jeffrey: Chair of the Middle East Program;
Former ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition To Defeat ISIS
Merissa Khurma (Moderator): Program Director, Middle East Program
3. Croatia: Opportunities and Obstacles to Peace and Economic Growth in the Balkans | February 17, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | The Hoover Institution |Register Here
In this ninth episode of Battlegrounds, H.R. McMaster and former President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović discuss education reform, peacebuilding in the Balkans, and strategies to achieve energy security and combat cyber-enabled information warfare.
H.R. McMaster in conversation with Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, First female President of the Republic of Croatia (2015- 2020)
Speakers:
Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović: Former President of the Republic of Croatia (2015- 2020).
H.R McMaster (Moderator): Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
4. Building an Army Ready for Great Power Competition | February 17, 2021 | 1:30 PM ET | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here
The Army is aggressively preparing for Great Power Competition by moving beyond incremental improvements and making transformational changes across the entire force. Most notably, the Army announced People as their #1 priority, enabling resources to efforts that take care of people and transform how to manage talent. Army transformation includes implementing new doctrine, new organizations, new ways to train, modern equipment, and how the Army competes around the world. Just recently, the Army announced a new model called Regionally Aligned Readiness and Modernization Model (ReARMM) to balance priorities and requirements. These changes ensure the Army maintains strength for the Great Power Competition environment already on the horizon.
As the Army moves into 2021 there are, however, some storm clouds on the horizon. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Mark Milley recently predicted “a lot of bloodletting” as the Pentagon tries to fund all the necessary programs in a constrained funding environment. A new administration, with undoubtedly different priorities, will be soon sworn in. The recruiting environment remains difficult.
Speakers:
General James C McConville: 40th Chief of Staff of the US Army
Thomas Spoehr (Moderator): Director, Center for National Defence
5. Nonstate Armed Actors and the US Global Fragility Strategy: Challenges and Opportunities | February 18, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
In December 2020, the United States released its first U.S. “Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability,” as called for in the 2019 Global Fragility Act. To maximize the strategy’s efficacy, the U.S. government must ensure the implementation plan has a clear goal and theory of success, as well as addresses pressing challenges such as the fallout from COVID-19 and efforts to subvert peace. Chief among these challenges will be nonstate armed actors who are an entrenched driver of violence in nearly every potential priority country, from Central America to East Africa and beyond.
On February 18, the Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors at Brookings will hold a panel discussion examining how the U.S. government should think about working with, and through, nonstate armed actors in implementing the fragility strategy. The discussion will address the following questions: How should the Biden administration approach working with nonstate actors as a potential means to maximize efficacy of conflict prevention and stabilization? What, if any, broader changes should it make to engage such actors? What challenges and opportunities do nonstate armed actors pose in potential priority countries?
Speakers:
Matthew D. Steinhelfer (Keynote): Acting Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations – U.S. Department of State
Frances Z. Brown: Senior Fellow, Democracy, Governance, and Conflict Program – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
George Ingram: Senior Fellow – Global Economy and Development, Center for Sustainable Development
Patrick W. Quirk: Nonresident Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology
Vanda Felbab-Brown (Moderator): Director – Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors; Co-Director – Africa Security Initiative; Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology
6. Turning a Blind Eye: the Human Cost of Trafficking | February 18, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Friends of Europe | Register
Human traffickers run sophisticated operations. Often bypassing border officials, national and local police – and on occasion the judiciary – human trafficking is intimately intertwined with migration. Reports have brought to light how women are taken by trafficking networks during their journey and face widespread sexual exploitation. And the danger does not end at the border – even after arriving at reception centres, shortages of police and guardians for unaccompanied children create hotspots for exploitation and smuggling.
There isn’t a major city in Europe that doesn’t benefit from human trafficking of women and girls. Furthermore, the proceeds of trafficking underpin illegal arms, drugs and terrorism. This is a sinister and dirty equation, and yet we in Europe largely turn a blind eye to it. Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, recently released its annual risk analysis, claiming to provide a comprehensive picture of the European Union’s migratory situation. Yet, missing from the picture – human trafficking and its significant impact on women and girls. As the European Commission looks towards its 2021-2025 Action Plan against migrant smuggling, it will be vital to address protections for those on the move and the relationship between human trafficking and organised crime.
This Policy Insight debate will broach the realities of migrant smuggling and address the steps that must be taken to ensure that people on the move can undertake safe and legal journeys.
Speakers:
Ana Christina Jorge: Director of Operational response Division at Frontex
Notis Mitiarachi: Greek Minister of Migration and Asylum
Malaika Oringo: Founder and CEO of Footprint to Freedom and member of the International Survivors of Trafficking Council
Monique Pariat: Director-General for Migration and Home Affairs (DG HOME) at the European Commission
Dharmendra Kanani: Director, Asia, Peace, Security and Defence, Digital and Chief Spokesperson
7. Libya: The great game. A decade of revolution, civil war and foreign intervention | February 18, 2021 | 11:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Ten years after the 2011 revolution that overthrew Muammar al-Qaddafi, the Biden administration is facing renewed challenges in Libya. Placed at the center of great powers’ diverging geopolitical interests, such as those of the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Russia, Libya will face enormous political, economic and security challenges in the foreseeable future. The Biden administration must now face the current state of play: The United States’ diplomatic absence has left the country in turmoil and facilitated the intervention of foreign powers in the country.
The panel will explore the role of international actors in the post 2011 Libyan political landscape. The panel will also analyze their interactions, as well as the relationship these actors have with forces on the ground. Please join the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East programs in collaboration with the Tripoli-based think tank Sadeq Institute for a public conversation to launch the upcoming publication of the Sadeq Institute’s book part of a long reads collection: Libya: the Great Game. A Decade of Revolution, Civil War and Intervention.
Speakers:
Steven A. Cook: Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow, Middle East and Africa Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
Marta Dassù: Senior Advisor for European Affairs, The Aspen Institute
Anas El Gomati: Founder and Director, Sadeq Institute
Deborah K. Jones: Former United States Ambassador to Libya
Karim Mezran (Moderator): Director, North Africa Initiative, Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
8. Veterans, Novices, and Patterns of Rebel Recruitment ? | February 18, 2021 | 12:15 PM ET | Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs | Register Here
Why do insurgents recruit experienced fighters at some times and untrained novices at others? Research suggests that insurgent organizations place a premium on committed members who demonstrate political devotion. But research also suggests that groups are willing to compromise on commitment when compelled by other priorities. The speaker will argue this extends to recruitment of experienced fighters who are capable and knowledgeable, but also less committed and generally riskier. Specifically, he expects groups will accept these risks and recruit veteran fighters when initially building their organization, when transitioning to new modes of warfare, and when competing with peer organizations for dominance.
At other times, groups should more readily focus their efforts on novices who can be molded to fit their less urgent operational needs. The speaker will evaluate this theory with a case study of Al Qaeda in Iraq and its successor, the Islamic State. This research sheds light on an understudied component of insurgent recruitment that has implications for organizational behavior, counterinsurgency, intergroup conflict, and civilian victimization.
Speakers:
Evan Perkoski: Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program
9. Is Now Finally the Time to Discuss Inequality in Lebanon? | February 19, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Middle East Center | Watch Here
Lebanon’s political economy has long been described as exceptional. The trope of a “Lebanese economic miracle,” in which Lebanon is a paragon of economic success, was long amplified by the ruling elite in order to maintain a status quo.
The 2019-2020 crises not only swept away this idea but also made blatant another kind of exceptionalism in the country—its record-high income and wealth inequality, which is perpetuated by the corrupt political economy. Extreme inequality is not a new phenomenon, however; rather it was brushed aside by the ruling elite, which largely consists of the nation’s wealthiest.
How can Lebanon create a new economic model that would put social justice at its core? Did the 2019 revolution create the opportunity to think and design policies that could decrease inequality levels? Join us for a conversation with Lydia Assouad, Toufic Gaspard, Haneen Sayed, and Gregg Carlstrom to discuss Lebanon’s worsening inequality and Assouad’s latest paper, Lebanon’s Political Economy: From Predatory to Self-Devouring, on Friday, February 19 from 5:00-6:00 p.m. Beirut (10:00-11:00 a.m. EST).
Speakers:
Lydia Assouad: El-Erian fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center where her research focuses on public and political economics.
Toufic Gaspard: Former senior economic adviser to the Lebanese minister of finance and adviser to the International Monetary Fund.
Haneen Sayed: Lead human development specialist at the World Bank.
Gregg Carlstrom: Middle East correspondent with The Economist.
10. The Syrian Civil War and its Aftermath | February 19, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute’s (MEI) Syria program is pleased to announce a panel discussion to launch Syrian Requiem: The Syrian Civil War and its Aftermath (Princeton University, 2021). In this volume, the authors trace the origins and escalation of the conflict from 2011 protests in Deraa to the current state of widespread humanitarian devastation and displacement a decade later.
The authors will be joined by MEI Syria Program Advisory Council Member Rime Allaf and MEI Senior Fellow Robert Ford, who will reflect on the origins and development of this conflict and explore what avenues exist today toward reconciliation, humanitarian relief, or solutions for the millions of displaced Syrians around the world.
Speakers:
Amb. (ret.) Itamar Rabinovich (author): President, the Israel Institute; Israel’s Chief Negotiator with Syria in 1990s
Carmit Valensi (author): Research fellow, Institute for National Security Studies
Rime Allaf: Advisory Council Member, MEI Syria Program
Amb. (ret.) Robert Ford: Senior fellow, MEI
Charles Lister (Moderator): Senior fellow and director, Syria and CTE programs, MEI
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Peace Picks | February 8 – February 12, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
1. Strengthening the Multilateral Order in a Nationalist Age | February 8, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 10:15 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Transnational problems such as climate change, economic volatility, and global health can most effectively be tackled by deep and structured cooperation via institutions, rules, and formal intergovernmental networks. Most European nations are committed to protecting and strengthening multilateral order in an increasingly nationalist world. While the case for multilateralism is well established, much less is known about how to establish an effective multilateral order. On Monday, February 8, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings will host a panel discussion to analyze alternative pathways to increasing the net levels of multilateral cooperation.
Speakers
Bruce Jones (moderator): Director, Project on International Order and Strategy, Brookings Institution
Kai Sauer: Undersecretary of State for Foreign and Security Policy, Ministry for Foreign Affairs for Finland
Constanze Stellzenmüller: Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Thomas Wright: Director, Center on the United States and Europe
2. Empowering Youth on the Path to Conflict Resolution | February 8, 2021 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET | CSIS | Register Here
The world’s 1.2 billion young people make up 16% of the world population with half of them living in low-income and lower-middle income countries. Youth possess catalytic potential to help achieve global development goals and to promote stability, peace, and community resilience. In recent years, youth have been drivers of change through organizing climate movements, embracing digital transformation, and coordinating community pandemic responses. With concerted effort, youth in fragile contexts can realize their potential as peacebuilders and drivers of post-Covid-19 recovery.
Speakers
Erol Yayboke (moderator): Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Project on Prosperity and Development, CSIS
Guadalupe Cruz: Director of Training for Latin and Central America, Cure Violence Global
Sherizaan Minwalla: Chief of Party, Iraq Genocide Recovery and Persecution Response, MSI A Tetra Tech Company
Rachel Walsh Taza: Program Manager, Children & Youth, Search for Common Ground
Ambassador Lone Dencker Wisborg: Ambassador for Denmark to the US
3. Building a Viable Middle East Venture Capital Industry | February 9, 2021 | 8:00 AM – 9:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Startup investments in the Middle East are on the rise: in 2020, despite a global pandemic, venture capital funding amounted to over $1 billion and increased 13 percent from 2019 according to a MAGNiTT report. Still, significant barriers remain that prevent greater investment and stymie the region’s economic growth. The Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East will discuss how to boost the venture capital industry in the Middle East to drive sustainable funding for startups.
Speakers
Amjad Ahmad: Director, empowerME, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council
Ahmad al-Naimi: Partner, Saudi Technology Ventures (STV)
Ahmed el-Alfi: Chairman and Co-Founder, Sawari Ventures
Noor Sweid: General Partner, Global Ventures
Christopher Schroeder (moderator): Venture Investor
4. Presenting the Belfer Center’s 2020 National Cyber Power Index | February 9, 2021 | 10:30 AM – 11:30 ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Only a handful of countries are well known for their cyber impacts: notable, US, Israel, Iran, China, Russia and North Korea. But cyber visibility can give a misleading picture of actual cyber power. The full range of capabilities, objectives, and actors are often left out of the story. The Belfer Center’s Julia Voo, Anina Schwarzenbach, Irfan Hemani, Simon Jones, Winnona DeSombre and Daniel Cassidy have proposed a novel and more complete way to measure a country’s cyber power.
Belfer’s 2020 National Cyber Power Index looks at the cyber capabilities of 30 countries across seven national objectives such as surveillance, defense, intelligence gathering and destruction. It then measures a country’s capability within each objective. The team hope that through developing the NCPI the discussion of cyber power is broadened to reflect applications beyond destructive capabilities.
Speakers
Anina Schwarzenbach: Postdoctoral Associate, University of Maryland
Julia Voo: Cyber Fellow, Belfer Center
5. The EU, Japan and the US in Indo-Pacific | February 10, 2021 | 5:30 PM – 6:45 PM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
In 2016, Japan published its Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) vision, underscoring the importance of a rules-based order in the region. Europe, on the other hand, has been more cautious in the adoption of this concept. But the pandemic has highlighted the need for Europe to recalibrate the status quo and actively expand its partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region. With France, Germany and the Netherlands, three EU countries have already published Indo-Pacific strategies and the need for a coordinated pan-European approach to the Indo-Pacific is growing. Toshimitsu Motegi, the Foreign Minister of Japan, has recently addressed the EU’s Foreign Affair Council to advocate for it, while The High Representative Josep Borrell expressed appreciation for Japan’s FOIP.
This conversation will discuss Japanese understanding of FOIP, the efforts to bring it about and potential for closer cooperation with Europe and the US. What does Japan’s FOIP strategy mean for Europe? How could a coherent and effective EU strategy on Indo-Pacific look like? What kind of expectations did the “European Indo-Pacific awakening” raise in the region? How can Europe, Japan and the US work together to maintain a rules-based order in the region?
Speakers
Janka Oertel (moderator): Director, Asia Programme, ECFR
Prof. Nobushige Takamizawa: Former Permanent Representative of Japan to the Conference on Disarmament
6. A decade of protests: Why governance reform is critical in the Arab World | February 10, 2021 | 3:00 PM – 4:15 PM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
As we approach the tenth anniversary of the Arab Spring, much attention is rightly being given to the broader governance trajectory of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Beyond the public debate over democratic change, another long-standing struggle is taking place as many countries work to reform state institutions to make them more efficient, effective, and responsive. The MENA region is home to some of the largest public sectors in the world, yet the quality of service delivery is often poor. The region is also one of the few places globally that has lost ground in the past decade on indices for government effectiveness and control of corruption. The Brookings Doha Center and Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut are pleased to invite you to a webinar discussing the future of governance reform in the MENA region.
Speakers
Joseph Bahout (moderator): Director at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, American University of Beirut
Hala Bsaisu Lattouf: Former Minister of Social Development, Government of Jordan
Rami Khouri: Director of Global Engagement, American University of Beirut
Robert P. Beschel, Jr.: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
Tarik M. Yousef: Senior Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
7. The Security Environment in Western Pacific Waters | February 10, 2021 | 8:00 AM – 9:00 AM ET | Stimson Center | Register Here
The waters of the Western Pacific are the focus of intense interest for trade routes, for territorial disputes, and as ongoing case studies for international law. How do Japan and the United States approach the challenges of upholding international norms and the law of the seas in this important region? How can regional and global multilateral partnerships influence the security dynamics in these waters? Join us for a webinar with Japanese and U.S. experts to explore these complex issues.
Speakers
Emma Chanlett-Avery: Specialist in Asian Affairs, Congressional Research Service
Yurika Ishii: Associate Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
Susumu Takai: President, Security Strategy Research Institute of Japan
Kathleen Walsh: Associate Professor of National Security Affairs, US Naval War College
7. A Nation in Transition: Political Polarization in Turkey | February 11, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Turkey’s activities in Syria, Iraq, Libya, the Caucasus, and the Eastern Mediterranean are well documented, casting a long shadow in the Middle East and beyond. But less reported are some of the trends and attitudes lurking beneath the surface that will likely shape how Turkey’s domestic politics, society, and foreign policy will evolve in the future. The Middle East Institute (MEI), in collaboration with IstanPol, an Istanbul-based research institution, is pleased to announce a series called Turkey Beyond: Trends and Drivers Shaping a Nation in Transition.
In the opening panel, the speakers will discuss the following questions and more: What are the drivers of ongoing political polarization in the Turkish electorate? How are political parties and actors responding to this increasing polarization? How is polarization influenced by gender, economic segmentation, and ethnicity? What has changed since the 2019 local elections?
Speakers
Gönül Tol (moderator): Director, Turkey Program, MEI
Edgar Sar: Co-founder and Chair, IstanPol
Seren Selvin Korkmaz: Co-founder and Executive Director, IstanPol
8. Diplomacy, Discord, and Turkish Politics since World War II | February 11, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
CRS Director Onur Isci will explore the history of Turkish diplomacy in the Cold War. Joining him are author and contributing writer at the New York Times, Suzy Hansen and Associate Director of the Hagop Kevorkian Center for Near Eastern Studies at New York University, James Ryan. The three experts of modern Turkish history will explore the major themes, issues, and lessons from Turkey’s diplomatic experiences in the Cold War.
Speakers
Christian F. Ostermann (moderator): Director, History and Public Policy Program, Wilson Center
Onur Isci: Assistant Professor, Bilkent University
Suzy Hansen: Author, New York Times
James Ryan: Assistant Director, Center for Near Eastern Studies, NYU
9. Ten Years After the Arab Spring: Middle East Writers Reflect on the Arab Uprisings | February 11, 2021 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The second book talk in our series features award-winning Egyptian writer Yasmine El Rashidi discussing her debut novel, Chronicle of a Last Summer. Through a young Egyptian woman’s recount of her personal and political coming of age, El Rashidi traces the fine line between survival and complicity, exploring the conscience of a generation raised in fear and silence.
Speakers
Yasmine El Rashidi: Author, Chronicle of a Last Summer
Jacki Lyden: Author, Board Member, Alan Cheuse International Writers Center
10. Transatlantic Policy Symposium 2021: Building Better Partnerships | February 12, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 5:00 PM ET | BMW Center for German and European Studies | Register Here
The Transatlantic Policy Symposium (TAPS) is an annual conference fully organized by the graduate students of the BMW Center for German and European Studies in the Walsh School of Foreign Service. The conference brings together academics, students, and professionals from around the world to discuss pressing issues at the heart of the transatlantic relationship.
Speakers
W. Gyude Moore: Senior Policy Fellow, Center for Global Development
Dr. Tilla Antony: Senior Officer, Global Partnerships, International Monetary Fund
Dr. Anne-Marie Gulde: Deputy Director for Asia and Pacific, International Monetary Fund
Eric Kite: Deputy Director, Caribbean Affairs, United States Agency for International Development
Helga Flores Trejo: Vice President, Global Public Affairs International Organizations, Bayer AG
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America is back, but where and how is not yet clear
President Biden today in two appearances at the State Department–one for the staff and one to address foreign policy–was anxious to say that America is back to diplomacy, to the defense of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, and to cooperating with allies. His foreign policy will, he said, benefit Americans, whose security and welfare will be primary goals.
He is clear enough about Russia and China. He’ll be much tougher on the former than Trump, calling out its repression and even murder of dissidents and countering cyberhacking and election interference, while seeking areas of common interest like the already extended limits on strategic nuclear weapons. On China, the policy will be similar to Trump’s in aiming to compete as well as cooperate, but with more attention to human rights and less inclination to trade wars, though the tariffs don’t appear to be coming down yet.
In the Middle East, Biden was clear about one thing: he wants a negotiated end to the war against the Houthi rebels in Yemen and will cut off American support to the Saudis and Emiratis. So much materiel has already been transferred that this make take some time to have a logistical impact, but the psychological impact will be immediate. The Hadi government the Saudis and Emiratis have backed is going to have to cut a deal or step aside so someone else can. It is unclear what the Houthis will be willing to yield, as they currently have the upper hand in much of the fighting, but we’ll find out soon enough.
Biden has also made it clear he is prepared to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (Iran Nuclear Deal) if Tehran does likewise. But the sequencing of the respective returns, and precisely what they amount to in terms of sanctions relief and nuclear reversal, are still unclear. So is any future nuclear agenda: the Iranians have so far refused widening, deepening, or prolonging the JCPOA.
On the rest of the Middle East, Biden has left things unclear. He has said little or nothing about:
- Syria, where the US still has forces pursuing ISIS, protecting oil wells, and cooperating with Kurdish-led insurgents regarded as terrorists by NATO ally Turkey,
- Palestine, though he has renewed diplomatic contacts with the Palestinian Authority and will presumably return to the two-state goal Trump tried to obliterate,
- Iraq, where US forces were drawn down to 2500 by his predecessor,
- Libya, where the UN has been making some apparent progress on ending the civil war.
- Egypt, where President Sisi has imposed a renewed autocracy at least as ferocious as either of his two immediate predecessors.
Each of these countries is at least as important to the United States as Yemen, but it is unclear what “America is back” means to them. Americans are tired of these longstanding messes, whose resolution is hard to tie directly to American security and welfare, even if we know that withdrawal from them could be costly.
America is really good at getting in, especially if can be done with warplanes and troops. It is much harder to get out, which requires diplomacy. But at least we now have a president who believes in diplomacy and is prepared to back America’s diplomats.
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Peace Picks | February 1 – February 5, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Human Rights and the Future World Order | February 1, 2021| 12:00 – 1:30 PM ET | Belfer Center Harvard Kennedy School | Register Here
The issue of human rights presents a special challenge for any effort to construct a workable world order. Can democracies and their publics remain true to their stated values within a world where human rights abuses are still widespread, without meddling into other nations’ domestic political affairs or presuming to know exactly how to achieve these ends globally? To what extent will differences over basic notions of human rights undermine efforts to cooperate on trade, climate, arms control, or other pressing global problems?
Speakers:
Hina Jialni: Former United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Human rights Defenders
Samuel Moyn: Henry R. Luce Professor of Jurisprudence, Yale Law School and Professor of History, Yale University
Zeid Ra’ad: Perry World House Professor of the Practice of Law and Human Rights, University of Pennsylvania
2. Maritime Security Dialogue: USN: Setting the Theatre in the Artic | February 2, 2021 | 10:00 -11:00 AM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Watch Here
Please join CSIS and the U.S. Naval Institute for a Maritime Security Dialogue event featuring Admiral Robert P. Burke, Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe / Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Africa and Commander, Allied Joint Forces Command Naples. This event will be moderated by Heather A. Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe Program.
The Maritime Security Dialogue series brings together CSIS and the U.S. Naval Institute, two of the nation’s most respected non-partisan institutions. The series highlights the particular challenges facing the Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard, from national level maritime policy to naval concept development and program design. Given budgetary challenges, technological opportunities, and ongoing strategic adjustments, the nature and employment of U.S. maritime forces are likely to undergo significant change over the next ten to fifteen years. The Maritime Security Dialogue provides an unmatched forum for discussion of these issues with the nation’s maritime leaders.
Speakers:
Admiral Robert P Burke: Commander US Naval Forces Europe and Africa, Commander, Allied Joint Forces Command Naples
Heather A Conley: Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia and the Arctic; and Director for Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSI
3. Crisis Group’s EU Watch List: 10 Cases Where the EU Can Build Peace in 2021 | February 2, 2021 | 9:30AM-12:15 PM ET | Crisis Group | Watch Here
The International Crisis Group invites you to join the launch of our EU Watch List, the yearly publication identifying ten countries and regions at risk of conflict or escalation of violence, where a stronger engagement and early action driven or supported by the EU and its member states could help generate stronger prospects for peace and stability.
Crisis Group Senior staff will join representatives from the European Commission and the European External Action Service to analyse the relevance and the policy suggestions of the ten cases presented in the Watch List: Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Iran & the Gulf, Libya, Mexico & Central America, Nagorno-Karabakh, Somalia, Thailand and Venezuela.
The briefing will start with a high-level panel on global conflict trends, followed by a presentation of the Watch List with interventions from EU senior officials and Crisis Group Program Directors. A Q&A with participants will conclude the event.
Speakers:
Stefano Sannino: Secretary General of the European External Action Service
Richard Atwood: Chief of Policy, Crisis Group
Hilde Hardeman: Director, Head of Service for Foreign Policy Instruments, European Commission
Giuseppe Famà: Head of EU Affairs, Crisis Group
Elissa Jobson: Director of Global Advocacy, Crisis Group
Ivan Briscoe: Latin America & Caribbean Program Director, Crisis Group
Comfort Ero: Africa Program Director, Crisis Group
Joost Hiltermann: Middle East and North Africa Program Director, Crisis Group
Olga Oliker: Europe and Central Asia Program Director, Crisis Group
Stefano Tormat: Director, Integrated Approach for Security and Peace, European External Action Service
4. The Geopolitics of The Green Deal | February 3, 2021 | 9:00-10:00 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
This event will mark the launch of the eponymous paper co-written by Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro of the European Council on Foreign Relations, as well as Jean Pisani Ferry, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram Wolff of Bruegel. In the paper, the authors map out the geopolitical implications of the European Green Deal and lay out a foreign policy agenda to manage the geopolitical aspects of the European Green Deal and to lead climate change efforts globally. Join us as an invited panel provide their insight into the paper, chaired by co-author Guntram Wolff.
This event is organised in cooperation with Bruegel.
Registration is not obligatory to watch the livestream. You are welcome to register if you wish to receive a reminder and updates about the event.
Speakers:
Anne Bergenfelt: Senior Advisor, Cabinet of Josep Borrell Fontelles
Mark Leonard: Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations
Simone Tagiapeitra: Research Fellow at Bruegel
Chaired by:
Guntram Wolff: Director of Bruegel
5. Syrian Requiem: The Civil War and its Aftermath | February 4, 2021 | 10:00-11:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Pro-democracy protests began in Syria nearly 10 years ago. In response, the government escalated violence, which sparked the Syrian civil war. The subsequent humanitarian catastrophe has killed almost half a million people and displaced an estimated 12 million others.
In their new book, “Syrian Requiem,” Brookings Distinguished Fellow Itamar Rabinovich and Carmit Valensi, research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, draw on more than 200 specially conducted interviews to tell the story of the conflict in Syria. The authors detail the long-developing divisions in Syrian politics, survey the various actors who fought in Syria directly or through proxies, and examine the policy choices that the conflict currently presents to the United States and others.
Speakers:
Susan Maloney: Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy
Steven Heydemann: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
Itamar Rabinovich: Distinguished Fellow, Foreign Policy
Carmit Valensi: Research Fellow and Syria Program Manager, Institute for National Security Studie
6. Exploring Innovative Measures to Map and Mitigate Illicit Weapons Transfers | February 4, 2021 | 12:00 PM-1:00 ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Tim Michetti, an investigative researcher on illicit weapon transfers, recently wrote a new Atlantic Council report, “A Guide to Illicit Iranian Weapon Transfers: The Bahrain File.” During this discussion, Mr. Michetti will present his report, which is a comprehensive, field-based case study on illicit Iranian weapon transfers. Following his presentation, he will be joined in discussion by Rachel Stohl, vice president of the Stimson Center; David Mortlock, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and a partner at the law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher; Jay Bahadur, investigator, author, and former coordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on Somalia; and moderator Norman Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
Using findings from the report, the panelists will explore ways to improve mitigation measures to prevent illicit weapon transfers and strengthen the efficacy of arms embargoes. The discussion will explore how current international arms control architecture, sanctions enforcement mechanisms, and lessons from WMD non-proliferation may be applied to mapping and dismantling underlying networks that facilitate the international trade in illicit weapons.
Speakers:
Time Michetti: Investigative Researcher on Illicit Weapon Transfers
Rachel Stohl: Vice President for Conventional Defense, Stimson Center
Jay Bahadur: Investigator, Author and Former Coordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on Somalia
David Mortlock: Nonresident Fellow, Global Energy Center
Moderated By:
Norman Roule: Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, Office of the Director of National Intelligenc
7. Nuclear Policy and Posture in the Biden Administration | February 5, 2021 | 9:30-10:30 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace| Watch Here
Even with an agreement to extend New START, the Biden Administration confronts important policy choices regarding nuclear doctrine, managing nuclear tensions with Russia, China, and North Korea; which offensive and defensive weapons systems to retain, build, or eliminate; and how to pursue arms control.
Speakers:
Michèle Flournoy: Co-Founder and Managing Partner of WestExec Advisors, and former Under Secretary of Defense
George Perkovich: Policy Expert of the Carnegie Endowment’s Nuclear Policy Program
Pranay Vaddi: Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Stevenson’s army, January 29
Bipartisan Senate group looks to rules changes short of ending filibusters.
NSC shifts from Middle East to China issues
BTW, China says Taiwan independence means war.
FEMA asks for troops to help in vaccinations.
DOD blocks admission of Trump loyalists to advisory boards.
DOD questions Taliban compliance with deal.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | January 25-29
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Reflections on Mass Protests & Uprisings in the Arab World, Part 1 | January 25, 2021 | 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM ET | Arab Studies Institute | Register Here
December 17, 2020 marked the tenth anniversary of the start of the Arab uprisings in Tunisia. Beginning in 2011, mass uprisings swept North Africa and the Middle East, spreading from the shores of Tunisia to Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, and the Eastern Province of the Arabian Peninsula. A “second wave” of mass protests and uprisings manifested during 2019 in Sudan, Algeria, Lebanon, and Iraq. The persistence of demands for popular sovereignty even in the face of re-entrenched authoritarianism, imperial intervention, and civil strife is a critical chapter in regional and global history. In an effort to mark, interrogate, and reflect on the Arab uprisings, we launch a yearlong set of events, reflections, and conversations. We hope to produce resources for educators, researchers, students, and journalists to understand the last decade of political upheaval historically and in the lived present. Over the past decade, a plethora of events, texts, and artistic and cultural productions have navigated the last decade’s spectrum of affective and material registers. We hope to contribute to these efforts through a historically grounded, theoretically rigorous approach that collaboratively interrogates the multiple questions the Arab uprisings continue to pose.
Speakers:
Amaney Jamal: Professor of Politics, Princeton University
Asli Bali: Professor of Law, UCLA
Rochelle Davis: Director, Center for Contemporary Arab Studies
Ahmad Dallal: Dean, Georgetown School of Foreign Service, Qatar
Ziad Abu-Rish: American Druze Foundation Fellow, Georgetown University
Lina Abou Habib: MENA Advisor, Global Fund for Women
Adam Hanieh: Professor, SOAS University of London
Rashid Khalidi: Professor, Columbia University
Bassam Haddad (Moderator): Director, Middle East and Islamic Studies Program, George Mason University
2. Defense Project Series: Dr. Peter Mansoor discusses, “How cultural biases influence success or failure in war” | January 25, 2021 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Join us as Dr. Pete Mansoor Mason Chair of Military History, Ohio State University, discusses the influence of culture on US and international militaries and the resulting impact on war strategies and the prospects for success. The executive officer to General Petraeus during the Iraq surge in 2007-08, Pete Mansoor will talk about how biases and unstated assumptions impact the ability of militaries around the world to achieve success in conflicts. This topic has become increasingly important in the past two decades.
Speakers:
Peter Mansoor: Mason Chair of Military History, The Ohio State University
3. Africa-Europe Relations in 2021 | January 26, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 10:30 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
Europe’s Africa engagement is in the process of evolution. The ties between Africa and Europe are many. Forged through proximate geography and shared history there is much to draw upon in knitting the two together going forward. But some points of mutual benefit are as yet not fully realized as such, other areas are misinterpreted as problems rather than challenges with upside benefit if gripped adroitly.
This roundtable will focus on the state of the Africa-Europe relationship with its challenges and opportunities, and the role that Southern Europe could play in the process.
The question underpinning the Session is: Why shouldn’t the Africa/Europe relationship grow to be amongst the most important for each continent? What needs to occur to realise that vision?
The virtual roundtable will be held in English on the record with mandatory registration in advance.
Speakers:
Francisco André: Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, Portugal
Lora Borissova: Senior Expert in the Cabinet of EU Commissioner Jutta Urpilainen
Emanuela Del Re: Deputy Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Italy
Theodore Murphy: Director, Africa Programme, ECFR
Arturo Varvelli (Moderator): Head, ECFR Rome
4. Defending the Seas: Gray-Zone Threats in the Maritime Domain | January 26, 2021 | 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM ET | American Enterprise Institute| Register Here
Most of the world’s trade — from electronics to fruit — travels by sea. The disruption of even a few sea-borne supply lines would immediately harm countries. The same goes for the roughly 300 undersea cables that carry the world’s internet traffic. Civilian activity’s reliance on the world’s oceans creates considerable opportunities for gray-zone aggression, the hostile acts between war and peace.
What can NATO member states and partners do to protect themselves from maritime gray-zone threats? Please join AEI’s Elisabeth Braw for a panel discussion on the importance of critical maritime infrastructure and how states can partner with civil societies to protect the seas from gray-zone threats.
Speakers:
Elisabeth Braw (Moderator): Resident Fellow, AEI
Andrew Lewis: Commander, Second Fleet, US Navy
Ewa Skoog Haslum: Chief, Royal Swedish Navy
5. How the Preservation of Afghan Culture Can Support Peace | January 27, 2021 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Afghanistan has made enormous economic, political, and social progress in the last 20 years. Often underappreciated, cultural heritage preservation, creative economies, and tourism should play an important role in ongoing peace efforts as they are important for the overall prosperity and economic and societal growth. Given the destruction of the Bamiyan Buddhas in 2001 and other tragedies with longer term cultural, economic, and societal implications, it is appropriate that civil society, culture, and creative economies be a part of the ongoing peace negotiations set to determine the future of Afghanistan.
As we know from other countries, such as Vietnam or Cambodia, cultural heritage preservation, creative economies, and tourism can play an important role in post-conflict economic recovery, providing jobs and livelihoods. It can also contribute to a positive national identity and pride. The proper management and preservation of a nation’s cultural treasures are essential for protecting minority rights, improving environmental protection, as well as strengthening communities in their sense of belonging and ownership, creating lasting and sustainable avenues for growth and development, and over time a more inclusive national narrative. Learn about the heritage of Afghanistan, efforts that have been taken to preserve and promote it, cultural heritage management as part of economic policy, reconciliation, cultural diplomacy, tourism, the benefits around supporting the creative economy, and learn about the role of culture in attaining peace.
Speakers:
Daniel F. Runde (Moderator): Senior Vice President, CSIS
Irina Bokova: Board Member, ARCH International
Luis Monreal: General Manager, Aga Khan Trust for Culture
Adela Raz: Afghanistan Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations
6. Imagining Future Airwars: What Turkish Successes in Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya Might Foreshadow | January 28, 2021 | 3:00 PM – 4:30 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Over the last year, Turkey has pioneered novel utilizations of existing military technologies to yield highly effective drone relays, aerial reconnaissance methodologies, and multilayered air defense systems. In both Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, these innovations enabled the Turkish-backed side to reverse the initial tide of war. This Zoom event seeks to examine how these developments in the use of drones, anti-aircraft systems, and counter anti-aircraft technologies illuminate the shifting balance of power in Eurasia and Africa in 2021, and beyond.
Drawing on The Middle East Institute (MEI)’s recent publication, “Turning the Tide: How Turkey Won the War for Tripoli,” a diverse panel of experts will explore these issues and their possible implications on theatres as diverse as Ukraine, Yemen, the Arabian Gulf, the Sahel, and Somalia. We will also opine on how the US, EU, and NATO should be preparing for these new forms of aerial warfare.
Speakers:
Wolfgang Pusztai: Security and policy analyst; former Austrian Defense Attaché to Libya
Lieutenant General Michael Nagata: Distinguished senior fellow on National Security, MEI; former head, SOCCENT
Kitty Harvey: Former Naval Intelligence Officer; forthcoming book on Saudi Arabia and Iraq
Whitney Grespin: Visiting scholar, George Washington University; former advisor, Somali Ministry of Defense
Jason Pack (Moderator): President, Libya-Analysis LLC; non-resident scholar, MEI
7. The complexities of unraveling US sanctions and returning to the JCPOA | January 28, 2021 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The January 20 inauguration of President Joe Biden has raised expectations for a quick return to compliance by both the United States and Iran to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Biden administration officials have promised to rejoin the JCPOA if Iran returns to strict compliance with the agreement, but won’t be as simple as rolling back all sanctions imposed on Iran by the Trump administration.
The mosaic of new sanctions the Trump administration levied on Iran includes hundreds of new specific targets and new sectors, both primary and secondary. In “Rejoining the Iran Nuclear Deal: Not So Easy,” author Brian O’Toole, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center, defines several distinct buckets for the various sanctions, and explains how the Biden administration might choose to address each bucket.
The Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative and GeoEconomics Center invite you to a discussion of this paper and the prospects for US diplomacy with Iran under the Biden administration. The discussion will feature the author alongside Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, Kenneth Katzman, senior analyst, Iran and the Persian Gulf at the Congressional Research Service, and Ali Vaez, Middle East fellow, Iran project director and senior advisor to the President at the International Crisis Group, and moderated by Ms. Barbara Slavin, director, Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
Speakers:
Kelsey Davenport: Director, Nonproliferation Policy, Arms Control Association
Kenneth Katzman: Senior Analyst, Iran and the Persian Gulf, Congressional Research Service
Brian O’Toole: Nonresident Senior Fellow, GeoEconomics Center, Atlantic Council
Ali Vaez: Iran Project Director and Senior Advisor to the President, International Crisis Group
Barbara Slavin (Moderator): Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
8. Arab Views on Great Power Competition: Unpacking Arab Barometer Surveys | January 28, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
The latest cycle of Arab Barometer, survey’s polled local opinion of great power (Russia, China, USA) foreign policy in the MENA region. The Middle East has been a significant arena for all three powers in recent years, and foreign policy analysts expect this to be true for years to come. Meanwhile, countries in the region will continue to be caught in the middle of foreign interests and shifting alliances between local states.
Join us for a discussion and presentation of the results of the latest wave, and a panel of Wilson experts weigh in on the significance for local policy and global actors alike.
Speakers:
Lucille Green: Schwartzman Scholar, Tsinghua University
Michael Robbins: Director, Arab Barometer
Asher Orkaby: Fellow; Research Scholar, Transregional Institute, Princeton University
James F. Jeffrey: Chair of the Middle East Program; Former Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS
Marissa Khurma (Moderator): Program Director, Middle East Program
9. The South Asian Security Landscape | January 28, 2021 | 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM ET | Stimson Center | Register Here
South Asian Voices Visiting Fellows Asma Khalid, Chirayu Thakkar, Fizza Batool, and Saurav Sarkar present their research and policy recommendations on some of the subcontinent’s most pertinent strategic issues. These presentations are the result of a year-long fellowship with the Stimson Center South Asia Program. Fellows will examine the changing deterrence landscape in South Asia, U.S.-India cooperation in multilateral institutions, the role of Pakistani political parties in the Afghanistan peace process, and the potential impact of the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP) on intra-Afghan negotiations.
Speakers:
Asma Khalid: Research Associate, Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research
Chirayu Thakkar: Doctoral Candidate in International Relations, National University of Singapore
Fizza Batool: Doctoral Candidate in International Relations, University of Karachi
Saurav Sarkar: Research Associate, Centre for Air Power Studies
Brigitta Schuchert (Moderator): Research Associate and Managing Editor of South Asian Voices, Stimson Center
10. The Future of Democracy in Asia | January 29, 2021 | 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Asia represents a critical frontier for democratic governance that will shape the geopolitical landscape of the 21st century. Democratic states in the region face increasing strain from an interconnected set of challenges across political, economic, and cultural dynamics. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, uncertainty about American strategy, the implications of emerging technologies, and support for illiberal populism and authoritarianism by policymakers and foreign actors have tested democratic norms in the region.
On Friday, January 29, as part of the initiative on Democracy in Asia, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings will host an event examining the health of democracy in Asia. Following opening remarks by Brookings President John R. Allen, Taiwan Digital Minister Audrey Tang will deliver a pre-recorded keynote address and respond to questions. A moderated panel with regional experts and scholars will then explore the ongoing intraregional challenges and trends affecting democratic governments and institutions across the Indo-Pacific. Following the conversation, panelists will take questions from the audience.
Speakers:
John Allen: President, Brookings Institution
Audrey Tang: Digital Minister of Taiwan
Ryan Hass (Moderator): Senior Fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
Richard C. Bush: Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
Mireya Solis: Director, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
John Lee: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Maiko Ichihara: Associate Professor, Hitotsubashi University; Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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