Tag: Israel/Palestine
A difficult choice and an easy one
The questions of a “humanitarian pause” and an Israeli invasion of Gaza are often discussed separately. They are related.
No invasion means more bombing
We have to assume that Israel will not let Hamas off the hook. At a minimum, Israel is trying to destroy Hamas’ military capability. That can only be done by military means. If you want to see a “humanitarian pause,” the bombing will stop, but that increases from the Israeli perspective the need to go into Gaza to hunt Hamasniks. If you want Israel to stay out of Gaza, the bombing will have to continue and even intensify.
My own preference would be for the Israelis to stay out of Gaza. Urban warfare is difficult and deadly even without an extensive network of tunnels. Once in, the Israelis will likely find they will need to stay, unless they are prepared to see something like Hamas (or worse) return. The invasion, plus an occupation of a decade or more, will kill a lot more Israelis and Palestinians than the bombing.
An Israeli invasion of Gaza is also likely to trigger a wider regional war. Hizbollah in Lebanon, various Iranian proxies in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen are capable of launching thousands of missiles at Israel. If the Israelis can’t handle that, they will turn to the United States to help out. Intense American attacks on Iranian proxies could trigger war with Iran. That scenario is a nightmare to be avoided, even if some hawks in the US might welcome it.
Of course there is an option for no bombing and no invasion. But that won’t satisfy popular opinion inside Israel. Nor would it help Prime Minister Netanyahu stay in power. He is responsible for the intelligence and preparedness failures that allows Hamas to do what it did. As soon as the military action stops, political accountability will begin. He will try to postpone that day.
Stop the abuse
The easy choice is on the West Bank. There the Israeli army and ultra-religious settlers have been harassing and killing Palestinians with impunity, not only since October 7. That behavior infuriates Palestinians and Arabs everywhere. From Israel’s own perspective, this is counterproductive. It could also be dangerous. The dog that hasn’t barked is Israel’s own Arab Palestinian population.
Here too Netanyahu is the fly in the ointment. He has been unwilling to reign in the extremists of his own coalition. Nor has the broadening of that coalition with a few opposition politicians compelled him to do so. The Americans are speaking up against Israeli behavior on the West Bank, but so far with little effect. They need to make it stick.
Get ahead of the political curve
At the moment, the Israelis are both intensifying the bombing and entering Gaza at will, without however yet trying to hold territory there. But humanitarian conditions are deteriorating rapidly and clearly require at least a bombing pause. Israel should combine that with a clear statement of restraint in the West Bank and a promise to deal with legitimate Palestinian aspirations once the fighting is over. But of course that would not help Netanyahu, so it is unlikely to happen.
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Stevenson’s army, October 27
– Senate defeated measure requiring US troop withdrawal from Niger.
– More on efforts to get around Tuberville holds
– House GOP are blocking PEPFAR funds
– National Review editor says GOP doesn’t really want to be in charge
– Public approval of Congress drops to 13%
– WaPo’s Josh Rogin quotes HFAC Chair saying US lacks legal authorization to fight Iranian-backed militias.
– NYT says Israeli government divided on invading Gaza
– Foreign Affairs reports on Gaza opinion on Hamas.
– WOTR writers reconsider views on infantry tactics
-Politico reports Arizona-Florida tomato war
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 25
– US public support for political violence is rising. Here’s the survey.
– Confidence in the media is dropping.
– WSJ says arms are flooding into West Bank.
– Fred Kaplan says US democracy promotion helped Hamas.
– US intelligence concludes Israel not responsible for hospital attack.
– Mike Johnson is latest speaker nominee, notable for lead role in brief to SCOTUS supporting Trump election charges, also has opposed Ukraine aid.
– Johnson circulated a program showing completion of appropriations bills in winter 2024.
– On 61st anniversary of Cuban missile crisis Lawfare notes Congress had authorized force. [As I did in my chart showing authorizations of force since 1789]
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 22
-WSJ has extraordinary video analysis demonstrating Gaza rocket struck hospital.
– NYT reveals Ukraine commando raids in Crimea.
– WaPo tells how a woman rose to top ranks in CIA
– FP tells of small country intelligence operations
-WaPo tells how Israelis countered Russian info ops in Africa
– WaPo reports on Hamas military manuals
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 21
– Israeli defense minister has a 3 point plan for Gaza.
– Biden administration has cautioned Israel on its plans.
– WH explains its new budget request. Here’s the letter.
– Here’s excerpt from new book on Lumumba killing.
– SAIS grad Rafael Kruchin explains Brazil reaction to Hamas.
And via Adam Tooze, look at this 1932 picture of Manhattan:
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 19
This from Dahlia Scheindlin and Yezid Sayigh is well worth listening to, even if 4 days old.
– Border crossing still closed.
– US denies Israeli reports that Biden promised to join fight against Hezbollah.
– But US may be pressuring Israel on ground war.
– US forces already facing drone attacks
– WaPo says Hamas may have surprise weapons.
– FT says Israel may follow lessons learned from earlier Gaza fighting
-Disputes over Gaza hospital deaths
– FP on Israel’s intelligence failure
– Possible outcomes of House speaker drama
– Biden chooses Kurt Campbell as Deputy SecState
– HuffPost warns of “mutiny” and dissent cable at State
– US & EU can’t resolve steel tariff fight
-I used to say the Ag committees, like the appropriators and armed services panels, could overcome politics to get bills done. Not this year, apparently.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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