Tag: Israel/Palestine
A Biden Middle East doctrine full of holes
Brett McGurk, the senior White House Middle East official, last month set out a “Biden doctrine” for the region. It is based on partnerships, deterrence, diplomacy, integration, and values. Best you read it yourself. It is blessedly short and clear.
Jonathan Lord, formerly Iraq director at the Defense Department and now at the Center for New American Security, has taken Brett to task for ignoring both Syria and Iraq, where the US still has a few thousand troops doing counter-terrorism work. In fact, McGurk never mentions terrorism, the threat on which he worked for many years.
What else isn’t mentioned
Those are glaring omissions, but not the only ones. As Lord notes, McGurk says little about economic issues. He omits oil entirely, though he mentions freedom of navigation. It is hard to imagine the US would be concerned with the Middle East if there were no oil there. He fails to note the growing geopolitical competition in the region with Russia and China. Brett ignores the more than 18,000 deployed US troops in Turkey, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.
He forgets the Palestinians entirely, as well as the Kurds, with whom the US is allied in Syria. There is not a word about the disastrous state of Lebanon and Hizbollah’s role there, though he boasts about Beirut’s maritime boundary agreement with Israel. He ignores the plight of women in much of the region.
McGurk also fails to note the contradictions among his five principles. He acknowledges the main tension between values and partnerships with autocrats. But he ignores the current and growing tensions on human rights issues with Israel, as well as the more traditional ones with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. What do the five principles tell us to do about the UAE and possibly Saudi Arabia reestablishing diplomatic relations with Syria? There are also problems reconciling diplomacy and deterrence. The US has essentially abandoned the former for the latter when it comes to Iran. And there are obstacles to integration arising from human rights, like the Saudi refusal to recognize Israel without real progress on creating a Palestinian state.
Iran, Iran, Iran
Brett is clever. I imagine he would reply to this critique that it is about time we had a Middle East policy focused on partnerships rather than oil, the Palestinians, or competition with Russia and China. He might also claim that it is obvious US troops are in the Middle East for deterrence purposes, against both terrorism and Iran. He would be correct to say that any discussion of economic and social issues requires more time and space than this short presentation allowed.
But there is no excuse for many of the other omissions. They reflect prioritization, not ignorance. Brett knows the the current Israeli government is a threat to its already ethnically-limited democracy. He knows Iraq is drifting away from the US, Syria is a drug-exporting nightmare, and Lebanon is in a downward spiral. The Biden Administration has simply decided to ignore these developments and focus on whatever will help the US confront Iran. That is the real purpose of four of the five principles: partnerships, deterrence, diplomacy, and integration. Values play a distinctly secondary role.
If that’s what it’s about, say so
Iran’s role in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and with Hizbollah more than justifies priority treatment. Moreover Tehran’s increasingly successful nuclear program could ignite an arms race in the region. Turkey’s President Erdogan and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have explicitly stated they will not stand idly by if Iran gets nuclear weapons. That could put the US in an awkward situation, as it would increase the need for security guarantees and make criticism of human rights behavior impossible.
If it’s all about Iran, say so. Don’t hide it behind five nice principles. Then we can debate whether you’ve got the priorities right.
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Stevenson’s army, February 19 and 20
February 20:
– US warns China about aid to Russia.
– FT notes lack of support for Ukraine in global south.
– US avoided UN fight over Israel/Palestine.
February 19:
– FT has two valuable articles. SAIS prof Mary Sarotte on Putin’s distortions of history and report on planned secret US talks with Taiwan [now exposed]
– Lots on Wagner group — from Politico, from WaPo
– CNAS has a new tracker on Russia developments
– AP poll finds reduced GOP support for Ukraine
– NYT notes new military competition in near space.
– WSJ said some DIA knew of UAPs in Trump admin, but didn’t raise alarms.
– Politico on Germany’s “shadow foreign minister”
– Eli Lake defends Iraq war
– Intercept has warnings for whistleblowers
– FWIW, revelations about Fox News.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The far right is steering Israel to disaster
I don’t have the time, energy, or expertise to deal with what the Israeli government is currently up to. But fortunately Jeremy Ben-Ami, the President of J Street does. He sent this message today:
For fifteen years, J Street has been warning of the dire threat posed to the future of Israel — its democracy, its values and its security — by the agenda of far-right ultranationalists and religious zealots.
We have spoken out about these looming threats because we care so deeply about the state and the people of Israel who are our family, our friends and our colleagues.
We’ve centered our work opposing settlements, demolitions and creeping annexation precisely on the point that never-ending occupation will ultimately take a toll on the occupier, not just on the occupied — and will lead to the erosion of Israel’s very democracy itself.
Sadly, the far-right — and the settlement movement at its core — that has single-mindedly pursued permanent control over the West Bank and dominance over the Palestinian people is now firmly in control of the government of Israel. Since taking office six weeks ago, they are moving at lightning speed to enact their agenda, threatening to make Israel unrecognizable to millions of Jews and others in the United States who care deeply about the country and its people, and who believe in the democratic values on which it was founded.
The actions now being taken by Israel’s government make its agenda clear to see: To ensure the coalition’s founding commitment to undemocratic control over all the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, they are advancing plans to undermine the very legal and democratic foundations of the state.
The so-called “judicial reform” package under Knesset consideration should be understood as part and parcel of the right’s annexationist agenda.
Thankfully, Israelis are taking to the streets to fight for their democracy and the rule of law. Former Prime Ministers, security chiefs and Supreme Court justices — and even the current President of Israel — are sounding the alarm. They understand that this is the most vital inflection point in Israel’s 75 years, one that will fundamentally shape the country going forward.
The sight of hundreds of thousands of Israelis in the streets, striking and protesting against the government’s plans, fills us with pride. J Street stands with the protesters in our commitment to the State of Israel and the values on which it was founded.
Here in the US, many Jewish communal and pro-Israel leaders have been slower to respond to these radical developments than we would have hoped. Perhaps some of these leaders held out hope that the worst would not come to pass. Some feared their critiques might be counterproductive. Others said that, even though US support has been vital to Israel’s development and survival, it is somehow inappropriate — even now — for Jewish Americans to criticize the policies of the Israeli government, or for the US government to meaningfully oppose those policies.
There is no longer any room or time for hesitation or excuses.
As Sunday’s cabinet meeting made clear, the government is moving full speed ahead: Advancing anti-democratic legislation that strikes at the core of the country’s commitment to the rule of law, legalizing illegal outposts, planning to expand settlements drastically, and transforming how the territory occupied in 1967 is administered.
These changes must be called what they are: De facto annexation of occupied Palestinian territory and a subversion of Israel’s democracy.
It is the moral and historic obligation of the leaders of American Jewish institutions to speak out clearly and immediately to challenge the actions being taken by this government.
Policymakers too must act. The Biden Administration must make clear to Israel — as a longtime and very close ally — that it will no longer stand in the way when the international community moves to hold Israel accountable under international law for its actions. Congress and the President must finally start to exercise far greater oversight to ensure that no US arms or taxpayer dollars are being used to further Israel’s de facto and illegal annexation of occupied territory.
To be pro-Israel in 2023 means standing with the hundreds of thousands of brave Israelis taking to the streets to defend their democracy. It means fighting to preserve the values that underpin the US-Israel relationship. It means standing up against the nightmare of permanent occupation and conflict.
Most importantly, it means confronting the troubling reality that, today, one of the greatest threats to Israel comes from the extremism of its own government.
I’ll be heading to Israel and the West Bank myself this week with a large delegation of Members of Congress and J Street leaders. I’ll be sure to share further thoughts with you on how things look from the region — and how our movement can continue to struggle for the better future we believe in.
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Stevenson’s army, February 8
-WaPo reports on China’s vast surveillance programs-
-China’s balloon program was reported last year.
-WSJ reports China now has more ICBM launchers than US, though many are empty.
-SASC Chairman Reed says Ukraine has more urgent needs than F16s
–Russia threatens expulsions of US officials
-FT says Iran is now shipping Russian oil.
-Axios says US asked Israel & PA to “pause” actions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
– In WOTR, former student urges “learning culture”
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Stevenson’s army, December 21
– President Zelensky is coming to DC, will meet with President Biden around 2pm, address a joint meeting of Congress around 7:30pm. WaPo says the big news will be US deal to send Patriot missiles to Ukraine. Politico says Ukraine wants more than US is willing to give.
– WaPo says it’s still not clear who sabotaged Nordstream lines.
– Politico says US will press Netanyahu to discipline his government.
-Legistorm says 2/3 of House offices haven’t used their increased budgets.
– Politico has details from new insider look at Biden administration. Looks like a lot of good interviews.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 3
– Politico says EU has a spy problem.
– Swedish institute has a report on the global state of democracy.
– Atlantic Council has a report on Ukraine from some former senior officials.
-WaPo warns of a West Bank crisis.
– Joe Nye likes the “double deterrence” of current US Taiwan policy.
– Slate article argues Supreme Court has been expanding its power by wrong reading of the law.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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