Tag: Israel/Palestine
Fizzle
Donald Trump last night in Tulsa tried to excite his extremist base with a lot of red meat about Democratic radicals, denunciations of burning of the American flag and toppling of statues, suggestions that less testing for Covid-19 would reduce attention to it, and blatant racism. I suppose the crowd liked it, but the arena was half empty and not even his enthusiasts were enthused.
Trump can no longer hide his failures. Covid-19 is growing exponentially in states that he owns. The economy is still moribund, despite a dip in unemployment claims. Most Americans support Black Lives Matter and other “radicals” whom Trump deplores. Trump’s base, which is the only part of the population he cares about, is clearly in the minority, making voter suppression a vital part of his re-election strategy. States run the presidential election, so Republican-led states are aggressively purging voter rolls, reducing the number of polling places, and limiting mail-in ballots.
Trump is however still trying to hide his personal malfeasance and the misdeeds of his pals. That is the short version of why he fired the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York (SDNY) this week. But he did it so sloppily that he is ending up with the career deputy acting in the position, instead of the toady he wanted. That is a great good fortune. SDNY is notoriously independent and likely has the goods on Rudy Giuliani if not on Trump himself, who is reputed to have pressured the prosecutors not to go after a Turkish bank at President Erdogan’s behest.
Trump’s situation is no better abroad. North Korea and Iran continue to defy Trump’s nuclear demands. Both have made significant progress on missiles and nuclear technology in the past 3.5 years. Venezuelan President Maduro remains in office. China is filling the vacuum wherever “make America great again” retreats. Russia has offered Trump nothing for his many efforts to court Putin. The “deal of the century” for the Palestinians has turned into a green light for Israeli annexation of a big chunk of the West Bank. Even that however might not come off, as the Israelis are getting a lot of pressure not to proceed in order to protect their relations with Sunni Arab countries.
The only thing working for Trump right now is Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority leader. He is proceeding apace with confirmation of unqualified Federal judges Trump dutifully nominates. But they don’t always behave the way McConnell and Trump might like. Despite the Administration’s opposition, the Supreme Court has extended equal protection of the law to LGBTQ people and prevented Trump from reversing the Obama program that protected people brought illegally to the US as children from deportation.
The Trump Administration is still capable of doing astoundingly bad things. But it is losing its grip on the popular imagination of most Americans. Joe Biden, who hasn’t yet been campaigning vigorously, is rising markedly in the polls, including in swing states crucial to Trump. The Electoral College could still save him from defeat, but the odds of that are declining. With four months to go before Americans start to cast their ballots, Trump is fizzling. May it last.
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Arab views on Israeli annexation
The Arab Center of Washington DC hosted an online discussion on June 2, 2020 that explored the implications of the recent announcement by Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas that the PA will end all agreements and understandings signed with Israel and the United States. The discussion was moderated by Tamara Kharroub and featured six guest speakers:
Noura Erakat: Human Rights Attorney, Assistant Professor, Rutgers University
Leila Farsakh: Associate Professor and Chair, Political Science Department, University of Massachusetts Boston
Khalil E. Jahshan: Executive Director, Arab Center Washington DC
Rashid Khalidi: Edward Said Professor of Modern Arab Studies, Columbia University, Co-Editor, Journal of Palestine Studies, President, Institute for Palestine Studies-USA
Nasser Al-Kidwa: Chairman of the Board of Directors, Yasser Arafat Foundation, former Palestinian Representative to the United Nations
Raef Zreik: Associate Professor of Law, Ono Academic College, Co-Director of Minerva Center for the Humanities, Tel Aviv University
Tamara Kharroub (Moderator): Assistant Executive Director and Senior Fellow, Arab Center Washington DC
Current Context
Kharroub highlighted that an Israeli Unity government between Prime Minister Netanyahu and former military chief Gantz was installed in May of 2020. One of the main policies agreed upon by these two parties is annexation of parts of the West Bank. In his coalition agreement with Gantz, Netanyahu was granted the right to proceed with the process of annexation as early as July 1. According to figures collated by the Israeli organization Peace Now, the West Bank is home to nearly 2.7 million Palestinians and 400,000 Israeli settlers. Although extending Israeli sovereignty into parts of the West Bank has been one of Netanyahu’s key campaign promises, Gantz has repeatedly spoken against unilateral annexation.
As a response to this development, PA President Mahmoud Abbas has announced that the PA will end all agreements and understandings with Israel and the United States. This comes following the Trump administration’s January 2020 Middle East Peace Plan that allows for Israeli annexation of settlements within the West Bank and Jordan Valley. To Kharroub, the increasing prospect of Israeli annexation raises various questions:
- Does the prospect of annexation constitute a real game changer in Israeli-Palestinian relations?
- Or, does the prospect of annexation merely signify the culmination of decades of expansionist Israeli policy and international impunity?
- What is the strategic economic and political importance of the proposed areas of annexation?
- The annexation of these territories violates international law. Thus, what are the legal implications?
To Khalidi, the Trump administration has gone beyond what any other American administration has done before. Notably, previous American administrations have allowed the Israeli annexation of the Golan Heights and East Jerusalem while simultaneously maintaining the public face of opposition. Khalidi stresses that unlike previous administrations, the Trump administration has openly endorsed the annexation of Israeli settlements within the West Bank and Jordan Valley.
Likewise, Jahshan finds the Trump administration’s “Peace to Prosperity Plan” to be monumental in terms of the US role in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Jahshan believes that this plan significantly differs from previous American attempts and lacks even the semblance of neutrality.
Contrasting perspectives
Al-Kidwa believes that the annexation of areas within the West Bank constitutes a threat to the present international order and accepted modes of state conduct. States possess a legal obligation in accordance with the Geneva conventions to confront settler colonialism. Palestinians must work to refine and redefine their relationship with Israel.
Zreik believes that it remains important to differentiate between the question of sovereignty and the application and enforcement of Israeli law and order. To Zreik, the question of sovereignty remains a question of international law, not local law. Although Israel enforces law and order in the Golan Heights, the international community recognizes sovereignty over the Golan Heights as belonging to Syria. Zreik states that the question of state sovereignty must be decided by the international legal system.
Legal Implications
Erakat states that the annexation of areas within the West Bank violates UN Security Council Resolution 242, the Fourth Geneva Convention, and the UN Charter that provides for the territorial integrity of all people. To Erakat, although there remains an abundance of legal remedies, politics will determine whether Israel will be held legally accountable by the international community.
Political Implications
Farsakh highlights that Arab states have denounced the proposed Israeli annexation. Jordan in particular has remained steadfast in its opposition and has threatened to withdraw the Jordanian-Israeli Peace Accords. However, negative reactions by Arab states will not have much significance because of the high degree of dependence these states have on the United States and their economic relations with Israel. The European Union, Israel’s largest trading partner, has opposed the prospect of annexation and unilateral decision making.
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Peace Picks | June 1 – 5
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.
- Webinar: How COVID-19 and the oil shock will reshape the Middle East | June 1, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | Brookings | Register Here
COVID–19 and the recent plunge in oil prices have shaken the Middle East to its core. Middle East economies rely heavily on oil, remittances, and tourism, all three of which have been decimated by the second-order effects of the pandemic. The simultaneous shocks will challenge states across the region, particularly those that are already struggling or are otherwise fragile. With added pressure on governments to slow the spread of the virus, the pandemic will ultimately change both domestic and regional politics and economies in the Middle East.
Speakers:
Hady Amr (Moderator): Nonresident Senior Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy
Jihad Azour: Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department – International Monetary Fund; Lebanon’s Finance Minister 2005 – 2008
Samatha Gross: Fellow, Foreign Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative
Rola Dashti: Undersecretary General and Executive Secretary – United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia; Former Minister of Planning and Development for Kuwait
- Egypt’s Diplomacy in War, Peace, and Transition | June 1, 2020 | 10:30 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a virtual panel with the American University in Cairo (AUC) to launch Egypt’s Diplomacy in War, Peace and Transition, a book by AUC’s dean of the School of Global Affairs and Public Policy (GAPP), Nabil Fahmy. The book examines the transformation of Egyptian diplomacy within the region and globe, covering a wide range of issues including the Arab-Israeli peace process, nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, and relations with major international and regional players. Fahmy offers unique insights sharing his experiences as the country’s Foreign Minister and Ambassador to Japan and the United States.
Given Egypt’s myriad economic and geopolitical challenges, what role might it play in the regional de-escalation efforts? Egypt’s Diplomacy in War, Peace and Transition offers a series of potential trajectories for the future of Egypt and its relations within the region and the world. The panelists will discuss the development of Egypt’s foreign policy as well as the past and ongoing regional processes.
Speakers:
Lisa Anderson: Former President, The American University in Cairo
Amb. Nabil Fahmy: Former Foreign Affairs Minister of Egypt, Founding Dean of GAPP and Distinguished University Professor of Practice in International Diplomacy, The American University in Cairo
Paul Salem: President, Middle East Institute
Tarek Masoud (Moderator): Professor of Public Policy and Sultan Qaboos bin Said of Oman, Professor of International Relations, Harvard University
- Navigating the Future of South Yemen | June 2, 2020 | 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute |Register Here
South Yemen today faces many turbulent converging challenges, from the spread of COVID-19 to floods, electricity cuts, and The Southern Transitional Council’s (STC) self-rule decision. The April 25th self-rule decision by the STC drew international concern about the potential for escalation in the South and implications for the Riyadh agreement, which the Saudis brokered between the internationally recognized government of Abed Rabbeh Mansour Hadi and the STC last year. Meanwhile, military confrontations in Abyan threatens a new conflict south of the country.
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a virtual panel of Yemeni experts to explore the various current dynamics impacting South Yemen and how they view the path forward. What are the hurdles facing the implementation of the Riyadh agreement? How will the STC’s self-rule decision impact future peace negotiations? How has the Hadi government responded to the flooding and electricity cuts and COVID19? Is the STC capable of dealing with the security and economic challenges and delivering good governance?
Speakers:
Dr. Saadaldeen Ali Talib: Former Minister of Industry and Trade, Yemen
Dr. Abdelqader al-Junaid: Physician and well-known political activist in Ta’iz
Yasmin Al-Nadheri: Executive Director, Peace Track Initiative
Amr Al-Beidth: Member of the Presidential Council, the Southern Transitional Council
Fatima Abo Alasrar (Moderator): Non-resident Scholar, Middle East Institute
- Breaking Bread: Food in Times of COVID-19 | June 2, 2020| 9:30 AM| Middle East Institute | Register Here
In this period of global lockdown and anxiety, food has emerged as a central player – a source of comfort and community-building for some, for others a reminder of growing economic uncertainty and inequality.
In the Middle East, with its strong culinary culture, the pandemic has led to a revival of traditional food practices and recipes that have long been advocated by many, as well as to questions about how to advance small scale farming and more sustainable agriculture, in response to growing economic challenges.
The panel “Breaking Bread: Food in Times of COVID-19″ will explore the role that food has played during this unprecedented pandemic with a focus on Middle Eastern communities. Bringing together voices from the Arab world, whose contributions have shaped this conversation, panelists will also explore how this pandemic might change our relationship to what we eat and how we grow it.
Speakers:
Aisha Al Fadhalah: Co-Founder, MERA Kitchen
Mirna Bamieh: Artist, cook and Founder of Palestine Hosting Society
Kamal Mouzawak: Founder of Lebanon’s first farmer’s market, Souk El Tayeb, restauranteur, and food entrepreneur
Antonio Tahhan (Moderator): Syrian-Venezuelan food writer, researcher and storyteller
- The Threat of Israeli Annexation: Regional and International Implications | June 3, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM | Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
Arab Center Washington DC and the Institute for Palestine Studies are organizing a webinar to discuss the implications of the Israeli plan to annex vast areas of Palestinian land and extend Israeli sovereignty over illegal settlements in the West Bank. The discussion will also explore the implications of the recent announcement by Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas that the PA will end all agreements and understandings signed with Israel and the United States.
Speakers:
Noura Erakat: Human Rights Attorney, Assistant Professor, Rutgers University
Leila Farsakh: Associate Professor and Chair, Political Science Department, University of Massachusetts Boston
Khalil E. Jahshan: Executive Director, Arab Center Washington DC
Rashid Khalidi: Edward Said Professor of Modern Arab Studies, Columbia University, Co-Editor, Journal of Palestine Studies, President, Institute for Palestine Studies-USA
Nasser Al-Kidwa: Chairman of the Board of Directors, Yasser Arafat Foundation, Former Palestinian Representative to the United Nations
Raef Zreik: Associate Professor of Law, Ono Academic College, Co-Director of Minerva Center for the Humanities, Tel Aviv University
Tamara Kharroub (Moderator) : Assistant Executive Director and Senior Fellow, Arab Center Washington DC
- East Asia in the Post-COVID-19 World: China and Beyond | June 3, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:30PM | Johns Hopkins SAIS | Register Here
This webinar will discuss the Reischauer Center’s new COVID-19 Policy Research Task Force report, examining how East Asia’s successful COVID-19 response is accelerating the region’s geopolitical rise. While considering the changing role of China in regional and global affairs, the seminar will also examine in detail the heightened evaluation of other nations, including Korea, Japan, and Singapore, due to their effective pandemic responses and dynamic medical diplomacy. The webinar will also consider emerging patterns of conflict, and how East Asia’s centrality in the world medical supply chain may be reconfigured as Europe and the United States legislate medical supply reforms.
- Turkish-Russian Cooperation and Implications for Black Sea Security | June 4, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Defying warnings and threats of sanctions from its NATO allies, Turkey went ahead with its purchase of the Russian S400 missile defense system. The first elements of the system arrived in Turkey last summer. Subsequently, the US has removed Turkey from the F35 Joint Strike Fighter program. Turkey will not be able to import any F-35s, and its aerospace industry will lose out on billions of dollars in F-35 contract work and the associated technology transfer. But Turkey still needs fighter jets. The Middle East Institute (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative is pleased to host a panel of experts to discuss the future of Turkey’s defense posture.
What are Turkey’s options? Can Russia fill the gap? Where does Turkey’s S400 decision and the US decision to kick Turkey out of the F35 program leave NATO? Will this lead to a fundamental shift in Turkey’s geostrategic outlook?
Speakers:
Caglar Kurc: Adjunct Instructor, Department of International Relations, Bilkent University
Aaron Stein: Director, Middle East Program, Foreign Policy Research Institute
Maxim Suchkov: Senior Fellow and Associate Professor, Moscow State Institute of International Relations
Gonul Tol (Moderator): Director of Turkey Program and Senior Fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, Middle East Institute
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Never let a crisis go to waste
“The region already faced significant economic fragility prior to the pandemic, but the coming recession will hurt the Middle East especially hard.” On May 1, the Wilson Center hosted a panel discussion on “The Middle East Workforce and COVID-19: Resetting the Regional Economic Formula.” The discussion featured six speakers:
Sheikh Meshal bin Hamad Al-Thani: Ambassador of the State of Qatar to the US
Theodore Kattouf: President of AMIDEAST and Former United States Ambassador to Syria and the United Arab Emirates
Denise Lamaute: Economic Officer, Middle East Bureau, USAID
Andrew Baird: President and CEO, Education for Employment-Global
Alexander Farley: Research Associate
Merissa Khurma: Project Manager, Middle East Special Initiatives, moderated
Current context
In Ambassador Al-Thani’s keynote speech, he pointed out that unemployment, the lack of human development, and the absence of social justice have posed a threat to political, economic, and social instability in the Middle East. The outbreak of COVID-19 across the world has led to a greater challenge. The collapse of oil prices as well as the decline of tourism revenue, emigrant remittances, and economic demand are aggravating the region’s structural weaknesses. Limited opportunities for youth and their lack of prospects will create discontent and generate distrust to political leaders. Al-Thani believes that this is the main reason of the Arab Spring.
Baird thinks that COVID-19 is an enormous disrupter. The hospitality industry, including restaurants, hair salons, and manufacturing, are suffering from this crisis. There are, however, winners at this point, including home health care, public health workers, transportation, agriculture, and the information technology sector. Baird is concerned that this crisis may have a long-term impact on SMEs, making them more vulnerable. They will take a longer time to recover than larger businesses. Additionally, Baird emphasized that the crisis will widen the digital divide between men and women.
Education and workforce
Farley summarized key findings of An Analysis of Workforce Asymmetries in the Middle East and North Africa:
- The skills mismatch and deficit of needed skills in the labor market
- Private sector and education uncoordinated
- Education systems do not emphasize essential skills
- Technical vocational education and training (TVET) is neglected and suffers stigma
- Mindsets adhere to a hierarchy of public over the private sector
- SMEs face barriers to expansion, economic growth is limited
- Entrepreneurship and new business creation is low
- Women ahead in education but behind in workforce participation
Kattouf said that during the Ottoman period, there was no education except for certain elites who were educated by the British and French to serve colonists’ needs. In the Gulf, most of the current countries were protectorates without education. It was not until Nasser and Arab socialism that an aspiration for universal education and literacy started.
While the number of educational institutions is now overwhelming, the quality of higher education is decreasing as more students are admitted to public universities and good professors prefer to teach in the Gulf for higher salaries. Kattouf added that when the youth graduate from tertiary education, they are equipped with fewer skills than expected and there are fewer jobs than needed.
Remedies
Al-Thani believes that Middle Eastern states need to take collective action to make long-term, youth-centered development agendas in order to address the challenge of workforce asymmetries, including protecting youth rights and allowing them to participate in public life.
Farley listed various recommendations from An Analysis of Workforce Asymmetries in the Middle East and North Africa:
- Realigning education systems to labor market needs
- Rethinking assessment and tracking student progress
- Upgrading the TVET pathway
- Strengthening entrepreneurship and SMEs
- Increasing female labor force participation through multiple interventions
Denise suggests that governments, the private sector, and education systems should pursue a firm understanding of the region’s demographics, the evolving demands for skills, and the connections between providing goods and providing services. Since the pandemic forces people to embrace digital tools, it may push a “fourth Industrial Revolution.” This revolution can lead to faster technology adoption, increased productivity and performance, emergence of new markets and new consumers, the relocation of value chains, and job loses as well as job gains. Since the MENA region possesses a young workforce, they will be ready to adopt the “fourth Industrial Revolution” to create more opportunities and changes.
Baird resonated Denise’s point to never let a good crisis go to waste. He suggests that the financial system can bring the private sector closer to education. As governments exert more control over the private sector, they can take advantage of it to propose women friendly policies, including women friendly transportation, anti-harassment policy, and day care.
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Stevenson’s army, April 27
– In Australia and New Zealand, they seem to have vanquished the virus, at least for now.
– Global military spending is surging.
– WaPo says Trump administration has multi-pronged effort to marginalize WHO.
– In effort to force continued sanctions on Iran, US has told JCPOA signatories that US is still legally part of the agreement.
– Jackson Diehl notes that US has a veto over Israeli annexation.
– CDC says Covid-19 is more complex than previously understood. And the number of basic questions is huge.
– Who deserves to be rescued in the shrinking economy? NYT notes that FDR saved artists.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 23
– Washington seems to have a “kick ’em when they’re down” culture. SO today we have reports when multiple sources blame the HSS secretary for his failings.
And they note that his chief of staff is unqualified, except perhaps for dog breeding.
And a vaccine doctor says he was fired for political reasons.
Meanwhile, Israel seems to be warning Hezbollah forces of impending attacks in order to avoid casualties.
Maduro and Guaido are having secret talks.
AEI has a report on radical Islamic groups in the Sahel.
GMF has report on Chinese political interference programs.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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