Tag: Israel/Palestine
He can’t talk himself out of it
Anthony Fauci is trolling Donald Trump. The President is ordering up plans to reopen businesses next month. Fauci is saying the virus will make that decision. Who is right?
Fauci is. Any decision to send people back to work before the virus is under good control will generate a giant second wave of infection and extend in both time and space the economic damage due to Covid-19. While there are some indications that infection may be beginning to peak in New York City and other hot spots, much of the country has yet to see its first wave of infection. All the states that have hesitated and resisted social distancing measures are bound to suffer next.
The one thing that could accelerate the reopening of the economy is testing. If I can be sure everyone I am working close to has been tested and found negative for the virus, then of course I’d be happy to go back to work, to movie theaters, and to school. But the Federal government has failed from the first to make enough testing available. Are you really going to go to a restaurant where someone who has not been tested is coughing at the next table? Are you going to sit in a movie theater or classroom with people who have not been tested?
A premature return to work will vastly increase the economic damage, not decrease it. Trump should be worried about that, since his prospects in the November 3 election depend heavily on the state of the economy. But this is a president who thinks he can talk himself out of trouble. The opposite is more the case. His daily press briefings are hurting his popularity, even while attracting lots of viewers. They are reminders that he and his Administration are supposed to be in charge and are therefore responsible for the disastrous impact of the epidemic in the United States.
Trump’s mendacity, ignorance and egotism are the culprits. He tried for weeks to play down the threat, then shifted to placing blame on Obama, the Chinese, WHO, and Democratic governors. His minions have followed wherever he goes, echoing his latest efforts to shirk responsibility. Fox News tries to portray him as having been right all along, despite the obvious change in his line from it’s-not-worse-than-the-flu to no-one-has-ever-seen-anything-like-this. Read David Frum’s account if have doubts.
At this point, maybe we can hope to get to the far side of this epidemic by July, but it will leave a wake of devastation that will last much longer. Lots of businesses in the US will go under. Growth may perk up before the end of 2020, but it will take years to recover fully and decades to pay off the vast increase in the public debt. The United States will lose ground economically and politically relative to other countries that have dealt more effectively with the virus, including China and Germany. Who would want to follow the leadership of a country that reacted so ineffectively to the virus as the US?
Outside the US, the big impact will be on poorer countries, where testing and treatment will be in even shorter supply. Many countries in Africa and the Middle East were already facing giant youth bulges before the virus hit. If their older and poorer populations are culled, which is what we should expect, they will be left with slowed growth and an even greater youth bulge. The consequences for stability in already unstable areas will be disastrous. Trump, who has ignored this international dimension of Covid-19’s impact, will find again that he can’t talk himself out of it.
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COVID-19 in Israel
As COVID-19 spreads around the globe, different states face different challenges based on their diverse domestic situations and healthcare systems. On April 3, the Middle East Institute hosted a panel discussion on “COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel.” The discussion featured two speakers:
Henriette Charcar: Editor and reporter, +972 Magazine
Ran Goldstein: Executive director, Physicians for Human Rights-Israel
Khaled Elgindy: Senior fellow and director, Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI, moderated
Lara Friedman: President, FMEP, moderated
Current context
Charcar stated that more than 7,000 people tested positive in Israel. Thirty-nine people have died and more than 350 have recovered. The Israeli government has forced people to shelter at home and stipulated that they cannot move more than 100 meters away. The Ultra-Orthodox city, Bnei Brak, is under closure. Wearing face masks is mandatory in public since last Wednesday.
Goldstein points out that Benny Gantz is using coronavirus as a reason to break promises to the people who elected him and turn to Netanyahu to form a coalition. The Israeli government plans to start its exit plan loosening restrictions after a week and a half because the infection curve has slowed down.
Government response
Charcar believes that the government is taking advantage of this public health crisis to utilize surveillance technologies and impose illiberal polices with little push-back from the population. In the Knesset, the Likud party used Health Ministry restrictions to shut down the parliament for several days. Amir Ohana, from the Likud party, used COVID-19 as an excuse to shut down the court that had postponed Netanyahu’s trial. Additionally, Netanyahu gave power to Shin Bet, the Israel Security Agency, to use surveillance measures against both Palestinians and Jewish Israelis. Charcar emphasized that human rights organizations face research restrictions and cannot track violations because of the COVID-19 crisis.
Goldstein indicated that asylum seekers were not aware of the pandemic at the beginning. The Ministry of Health was negligent. For instance, the ministry didn’t translate everything relating to pandemic protection and prevention into Arabic.
Charcar added that the virus exacerbates existing tensions in Israel, rather than creating something new. She listed the drawbacks that the Ministry of Health exposes in this pandemic crisis:
- Delay in publishing information and instructions in Arabic and other languages
- Gaps in provision of medical care
- Unequal access to services and financial assistance
Marginalized communities
Goldstein indicated that migrant workers, refugees, asylum seekers, LGBT populations, and Palestinians with permits to stay in Israel don’t have health insurance. Some people from marginalized communities don’t want to transfer their information to the government and therefore avoid going to hospitals.
Charcar demonstrated that the Bedouins in Israel are at risk because they live in unrecognized villages. They don’t have access to public infrastructure, including sanitation systems and paved roads that ambulances can drive on. As schools closed and switched to online learning, half the Palestinian students lacked computers or internet access.
Ultra-Orthodox communities are also vulnerable because they are slow to accept self-isolation due to public prayer sessions. Goldstein added that ultra-Orthodox Jews’ living condition, such as a 10-15 family size, makes it hard for them to follow health instructions. Charcar thinks that women have a greater burden of responsibility during the crisis because they need to take care of children, elders, and their jobs. Domestic violence and inaccessibility to mental health services expose them to a huge challenge.
Charcar concluded that although tensions are ongoing between communities, the pandemic doesn’t discriminate. A new pattern has emerged: vulnerable communities are relying on each other and establishing support networks. Goldstein believes that taking care of the marginalized is in Israel’s interests. Any long-term remedy is relating not only to public health, but also to Israel’s democracy.
Here’s the video for this panel discussion:
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Peace Picks| March 29- April 4
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.
- Live Webcast: Big Brother: Internet Age Surveillance and Censorship in the Middle East| March 30, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Post-9/11, concerns over governmental stability, political extremism, and terrorism drove a surge in security-minded surveillance worldwide. Following the regional diffusion of social media and the Arab Spring a decade later, the pendulum in the Middle East swung back towards individual liberty and privacy. Today, the tension between these two poles is tighter than ever, as cutting-edge and intrusive surveillance programs in China and Singapore have proven effective if not essential to tracking and thwarting the spread of the novel coronavirus pandemic.
MEI is pleased to announce a panel which will seek to address several questions around censorship and surveillance in the Middle East: What purposes do they intend to serve, and are they effective? What are the excesses and human implications of these practices? Can censorship and surveillance play a responsible role in containing disinformation and thwarting disease, or are they doomed to be abused by the powers that be? And what will the future of these technologies look like in the region, as the age of interconnectedness allows governments to learn from one another, for better or worse?
Speakers:
Marc Owen Jones: Assistant professor, Hamad bin Khalifa University
Sahar Khamis: Associate professor, University of Maryland
Raed Labassi: Technologist and researcher, Amnesty International
Mohammad Soliman: Non-resident scholar, MEI
Michael Sexton (Moderator): Fellow and director of the Cybersecurity Initiative, MEI
- Live Webcast: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine: The Gaza Strip| March 31, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP) are pleased to host a webinar series: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine. nations around the globe, the COVID-19 crisis is both creating new challenges and exacerbating existing ones. This is especially true in Israel-Palestine, where Israelis and Palestinians live in close proximity, all under overarching Israeli authority but under regimes that afford them separate and grossly unequal access to health services.
In this context, the webinar series, moderated by MEI’s Khaled Elgindy and FMEP’s Lara Friedman, will examine how the COVID-19 crisis is impacting the very different and yet highly interconnected environments in Israel-Palestine, highlighting expert voices on the ground.
Speakers:
Tania Hary: Executive director, Gisha-Legal Center for Freedom of Movement
Dr. Ghada Al Jadba : Chief of Health Programme in the Gaza Strip, UNRWA
Omar Shaban: Founder of director, PalThink for Strategic Studies
Khaled Elgindy (Co-host): Senior fellow and Director of Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Lara Friedman (Co-host): President, FMEP
- Live Webcast: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine: The West Bank and East Jerusalem| April 1, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP) are pleased to host a webinar series: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine. nations around the globe, the COVID-19 crisis is both creating new challenges and exacerbating existing ones. This is especially true in Israel-Palestine, where Israelis and Palestinians live in close proximity, all under overarching Israeli authority but under regimes that afford them separate and grossly unequal access to health services.
In this context, the webinar series, moderated by MEI’s Khaled Elgindy and FMEP’s Lara Friedman, will examine how the COVID-19 crisis is impacting the very different and yet highly interconnected environments in Israel-Palestine, highlighting expert voices on the ground.
Speakers:
Tareq Baconi: Analyst for Israel/Palestine and Economics of Conflict, International Crisis Group
Jessica Montell: Executive director, HaMoked
Khaled Elgindy (Co-host): Senior fellow and Director of Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Lara Friedman (Co-host): President, FMEP
- Live Webcast: Crisis Upon Crisis: The Geopolitical & Economic Implications of the Pandemic| April 1, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:30 PM | Carnegie Middle East Center | Register Here
With over 530,000 infections and 25,000 deaths worldwide, COVID-19, the disease caused by the fast-spreading new coronavirus, has caused global havoc. Beyond the devastating human toll, this pandemic has caused global supply and demand shocks, economic turmoil, and financial market collapse, with the likely onset of a global recession. Oil prices have plummeted as pandemic-related policies, including global travel restrictions, have decreased demand. Measures to contain the pandemic have hurt key sectors such as tourism and disrupted production, manufacturing, and trade, leading to significant job losses. For the Middle East and North Africa—especially fragile and conflict-ridden countries such as Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Libya—the virus has become a major near-term challenge. Before the virus struck, many countries in the region were already facing significant economic and political challenges, including crumbling healthcare systems. Today, there are those that are incapable of providing necessary stimulus packages to their economies.
In this broader context, what are the prospects for global economic and financial systems in the coming months? What implications will the coronavirus have on the geopolitics and economics of the Middle East and North Africa? Similarly, how are other regions reacting, for instance Latin America? What are the available policy options to address the economic and financial fallout of the pandemic?
Speakers:
Jihad Azour is the director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund.
Amer Bisat is the managing director at Blackrock and a former senior economist at the International Monetary Fund.
Moisés Naím is a distinguished fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where his research focuses on international economics and global politics.
Maha Yahya is the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
- Live Webcast: Unemployment Insurance during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Reducing the Impact of this Economic Downturn| April 1, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM | Brookings Institution | Register Here
The COVID-19 pandemic, along with the critical public health measures taken to resist it, has already resulted in millions of workers being laid off and families threatened with financial ruin. Fortunately, the unemployment insurance (UI) system serves as the first line of defense for laid off workers. However, as state and federal policymakers continue to move forward with substantial changes to UI to bolster its effectiveness, important policy questions arise: What is different about this crisis that necessitates UI reform? What do time-limited reforms aim to accomplish? What can we reasonably expect the UI system to do for workers and the economy?
Speakers:
Katharine Abraham: Director, Maryland Center for Economics and Policy; Professor, Survey Methodology, Professor, Economics, The University of Maryland
Arindajit Dube: Professor, Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst
Susan N. Houseman: Vice-President and Director of Research, Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
Ryan Nunn: Policy Director, The Hamilton Project, Fellow, Economics Studies, The Brookings Institution
Jay Shambaugh (Moderator): Director, The Hamilton Project, Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, The Brookings Institution
- Live Webcast: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine: Israel| April 2, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP) are pleased to host a webinar series: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine. nations around the globe, the COVID-19 crisis is both creating new challenges and exacerbating existing ones. This is especially true in Israel-Palestine, where Israelis and Palestinians live in close proximity, all under overarching Israeli authority but under regimes that afford them separate and grossly unequal access to health services.
In this context, the webinar series, moderated by MEI’s Khaled Elgindy and FMEP’s Lara Friedman, will examine how the COVID-19 crisis is impacting the very different and yet highly interconnected environments in Israel-Palestine, highlighting expert voices on the ground.
Speakers:
Henriette Chacar: Editor and reporter, +972 Magazine
Ran Goldstein: Executive director, Physicians for Human Rights-Israel
Khaled Elgindy (Co-host): Senior fellow and Director of Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Lara Friedman (Co-host): President, FMEP
- Live Webcast: Biological Warfare and Pandemics in the Middle East: Confronting a Growing Crisis| April 2, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The global outbreak of COVID-19 has highlighted the necessity for cooperation among governments in the Middle East, creating an opportunity to overcome geopolitical rivalries in an effort to contain the virus. Unfortunately, the damage of COVID-19 in the Middle East has been quick and massive. There is evidence of some information sharing and training exchanges between Israel and the West Bank, but there is a much greater disparity in information sharing between Israel and the rest of the Arab world.
Regional cooperation efforts for containing COVID-19 can be a roadmap for an approach to counter bioterrorism and biological warfare in the region. Although experts have historically agreed that the threat of biological warfare in the region is low, advances in technology drastically reduce the cost and time of developing biological weapons. Groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State have expressed an interest in acquiring biological weapons, creating a looming threat for regional security.
Speakers:
Jessica Bell: Senior program officer, Global Biological Policy and Programs, Nuclear Threat Initiative
Asha George: Executive director, Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense
Chen Kane: Director, Middle East Nonproliferation Program, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Bilal Saab (Moderator): Senior Fellow and Director of the Defense and Security Program Middle East Institute
- Live Webcast: The Effects of the Coronavirus Outbreak on Marinalized Communities | April 2, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 3:45 PM | Brookings Institution | Register Here
As the coronavirus outbreak rapidly spreads, existing social and economic inequalities in society have been exposed and exacerbated. State and local governments across the country, on the advice of public health officials, have shuttered businesses of all types and implemented other social distancing recommendations. Such measures assume a certain basic level of affluence, which many in low-income and vulnerable communities do not have and as a result, millions of people have lost their jobs.
On Thursday, April 2, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a webinar discussion to address how the coronavirus pandemic is impacting low-income and vulnerable communities. Panelists will discuss what measures officials can take to protect marginalized communities as the country continues to fight the virus.
Speakers:
Rashawn Ray (Moderator): David M. Rubenstein Fellow, Governance Studies
Camille Busette: Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, Governance Studies, Metropolitan Policy Program; Director, Race, Prosperity, and Inclusion Initiative
Makada Henry-Nickie: Fellow, Governance Studies
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Stevenson’s army, March 25
Not much besides coronavirus news. Stimulus bill details agreed, more info and votes later today.
Schumer brags about one provision:“Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer has secured a provision in the
agreement that will prohibit businesses controlled by the President,
Vice President, Members of Congress, and heads of Executive Departments
from receiving loans or investments from Treasury programs. The
children, spouses and in-laws of the aforementioned principals are also
included in this prohibition.” Schumer’s Dear Colleague letter
Steve Walt says crisis exposes America’s diminished competence.
DHS halted pandemic modeling in 2017, doubting its value.
Commission on public service recommends registering women for the draft. Report due out later later.
House Rules Committee opposes remote voting.
Defense News questions two carriers in Arabian Sea.
NYT has more on problems in Afghanistan.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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COVID-19 in the Middle East
The outbreak of coronavirus in Iran began on February 21. The World Health Organization (WHO) has reported at least 1300 deaths in the Middle East and North Africa. On March 20, the Middle East Institute hosted a panel discussion on “COVID-19 in the Middle East: Assessing the Risks, Exploring Policy Remedies.” The discussion featured four speakers:
Basma Alloush: Policy and Advocacy Advisor, Norwegian Refugee Council.
Jihad Azour: Director, Middle East and Central Asia department, International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Rana Hajjeh: Director of Program Management, World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean
Hannah Kaviani: Senior Journalist, Radio Farda, RFE/RL’s Persian Language service
Paul Salem, President of the Middle East Institute, moderated
Current Context
Hajjeh pointed out that testing standards are different from state to state. For example, Iran only tests severe cases and makes mild cases stay at home. Iran’s country-wide transmission will lead to an increased number of deaths. Conflicts and wars in the region have weakened health infrastructure, which may not be able to handle the pandemic and may increase the risk of suffering. To reduce the proliferation of COVID-19, WHO is increasing the supply of personal protection equipment across the region. It also attempts to convince religious figures to stop mass gatherings and maintain social distance.
Alloush demonstrated that the COVID-19 has a severe impact on refugee communities. In Yemen and Syria, health infrastructure has been targeted by militias. Public facilities and services are insufficient. Ongoing conflicts have weakened local governance and imposed restrictions on humanitarian assistance. Living conditions don’t allow refugees to do social distancing. Quarantine leads to a decreased access to market. As the situation deteriorates, there have been more tensions between communities.
Kaviani attributed Iran’s pandemic crisis to several reasons:
- Iranians’ lack of education
- Lack of trust in the government
- Sanctions
- Mismanagement
- Lack of regional cooperation
These factors cause the shortage of medicine and medical devices, as well as Iranians’ distrust of government’s instructions and statistics.
Impacts
Azour stated that the pandemic and the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia are leading to economic turmoil. Domestic and external demand has dropped because customers have lost confidence on the market. Trade has slowed. The oil price has dropped by more than 60%, which puts pressure on government budgets. Azour expects that any measures to contain the pandemic will cause an increase in unemployment and a reduction in wages. Investments in production and manufacturing will also decline. The impacts will spread to the bond and the equity markets as well.
Remedies
Alloush emphasized that refugees are more vulnerable in this pandemic due to the lack of service access. She listed four main concerns of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs):
- Maintaining operations aimed at meeting pre-existing humanitarian needs,
- Ensuring humanitarian exemptions in order to provide services to refugee communities,
- Providing accurate information and instructions, and
- Guaranteeing the duty of care and protection of NGO staffs.
Hajjeh added that new political agendas may create more uncertainty at this time. States’ ministries of health should take what happened in China into consideration.
Azour prioritized public health and financial improvements in his policy recommendations. The market should reduce consumer payments. Governments should offer timely, targeted support to sectors in need. They should also preserve financial stability by allowing cash transactions as well as encouraging regional and international coordination.
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Stevenson’s army, March 16
- The most important news is about the coronavirus: how to stay safe; what authorities are doing [and not just what they are saying], and what works. [BTW, since monetary policy and zero interest rates can’t open public paces or restore lost income, I agree with the need for fiscal measures, the easiest of which is direct cash.]
- Look what Israel is doing: using secret cellphone data to track contacts with the infected.
- A professor notes there are 52 remaining emergency authorities that might be used.
- And look at the US military buildup in the Middle East.
- If and when the Senate takes up crisis measures, you can follow it on this regular site.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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