Tag: Israel/Palestine
Stevenson’s army, February 12
– Last year I asked a group of friends with longtime experience in the US intelligence community whether I should be worried about Huawei. Sure, they said. But would China really use the company to spy on us? I asked. They responded, we would if we could. And now we know we did. That’s the story released by WaPo yesterday and on 3 pages today. And then last night, NSA O’Brien disclosed that Huawei already can access telecom networks.
-A few days ago I praised the Harris & Sullivan article calling for economics to play a bigger role in US national security strategy. Dan Drezner says, hold on,not so fast, and questions our ability to do economics smartly. Since I respect his views on so many topics, his points are worth considering.
– Duterte says begone to US military forces, triggering a 180 period ending our status of forces agreement. He’s cozying up to China.
– NYT says Trump has tentatively approved a deal with the Taliban.
– O’Brien defends Vindman dismissal.
– FP article says Trump Israel plan is like one Israel proposed in 1979.
– And New Hampshire? I say there’s now a better than 33% chance that the Democratic convention will take more than one ballot to choose a nominee next July in Milwaukee –the first such situation since the Democratic convention in 1952.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | February 10 – 14
Forging the Army’s Future | February 10, 2020 | 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council for the latest event in its Commanders Series, “Forging the Army’s Future,” a public conversation with General John M. Murray, Commanding General of United States Army Futures Command. The event will take place on Monday, February 10, 2020 from 1:00 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. at the Atlantic Council’s Headquarters (1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, West Tower Elevators, Washington, DC 20005).
Since releasing the 2017 National Security Strategy and the 2018 National Defense Strategy, the United States has shifted its geopolitical focus toward renewed great-power competition with Russia and China. 2018 also saw the activation of Army Futures Command, designed to prepare today for military challenges decades in the future. The Army identified six key areas for modernization and assigned eight Cross-Functional Teams to see each to fruition. These modernization priorities are designed to support Multi-Domain Operations, the Army’s new concept for future combat across the spectrum of conflict.
Yet one of these priorities–the Next Generation Combat Vehicle–suffered a setback when the Army canceled its solicitation for Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle prototypes in January 2020. Does the cancellation signal early problems or does it demonstrate the success of the high ambitions and learning model that undergirds Army Futures Command? The answer to these questions will depend in large part on the Army’s ability to prioritize and deliver on its ambitious goals.
As the Commanding General of Army Futures Command, General Murray will join us to discuss how Army Futures Command is reinventing innovation in the Army. This conversation will focus on how the Army identifies priority capabilities for this new era of great-power competition, and how it plans to continue doing so for generations to come.
Rohingya– Beyond the Crisis Narrative: Statelessness and the Implications for Myanmar and Bangladesh | February 10, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Council of American Overseas Research Centers | Register Here
Speakers
Mabrur Ahmed is the Founder and Director of Restless Beings, an International Human Rights organization based in London
Rahima Begum is an artist, researcher and Founding Director of the international human rights organisation, Restless Beings
Shireen Huq is a co-founder of Naripokkho, an organization focusing on women’s rights in Bangladesh
Ali Riaz is a Bangladeshi American political scientist and writer. He is a Distinguished Professor at Illinois State University
Samira Siddique is a PhD student in the Energy and Resources Group and Researcher at the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory at UC Berkeley
Prashanta Tripura is an academic anthropologist turned development professional, who is currently Project Director- Aparajita: Political Empowerment of Women at HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperation in Bangladesh
Yasmin Ullah is a Rohingya refugee born in Northern Rakhine state of Myanmar. She currently serves as the President of Rohingya Human Rights Network, a non-profit group advocating to raise public awareness of the human rights violations against Rohingya people
Sanchita Saxena (Moderator) is the Executive Director of the Institute for South Asia Studies at UC Berkeley and the Director of the Subir and Malini Chowdhury Center for Bangladesh Studies under the Institute
A Consensus Proposal for a Revised Regional Order | February 10, 2020| 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Disputes over the regional order in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia are at the core of the breakdown in Russia-West relations, and have created major security and economic challenges for the states caught in between: first and foremost Ukraine, but also Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Current policy approaches toward the regional order—i.e., the set of rules, norms, and institutions that govern the region—have exacerbated today’s disorder and instability. The authors of a new report offer a comprehensive proposal for revising the regional order. The proposal, which addresses the security architecture, economic integration, and regional conflicts, was devised by four groups of experts convened by the RAND Corporation and the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung’s Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe. Each group included representatives from the West, Russia, and the states in between.
Speakers
Alexandra Dienes, Research Associate, Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
Vasly Filipchuk, Senior Adviser, International Centre for Policy Studies
Samuel Charap, Senior Political Scientist, RAND Cooperation
Yulia Nikitina, Associate Professor, World Politics and Research Fellow, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO)
Paul Schwartz (Moderator), Research Analyst, CAN
Jeffrey Mankoff (Discussant), Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS
Documentary Film Screening: “On Her Shoulders” | February 11, 2020 | 5:00 PM – 6:35 PM | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute Arts and Culture Center, in association with the Embassy of the Czech Republic, are pleased to present the award-winning documentary On Her Shoulders (2018, 94 mins, English subtitles) about the life of Nadia Murad, winner of the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize for her “efforts to end the use of sexual violence as a weapon of war and armed conflict.”
Directed by Alexandria Bombach, the film follows the life and struggle of Murad, a Yazidi woman who was among the 7,000 women and children captured by ISIS in the summer of 2014, and forced to become sex slaves and child soldiers. After surviving the genocide of Yazidis in Northern Iraq, Murad becomes a tireless activist, alerting the world to the massacres and kidnappings in her homeland.
The film is programmed in parallel with the exhibit Speaking Across Mountains: Kurdish Artists in Dialogue and as part of the annual One World International Human Rights Documentary Film Festival held in Prague, one of the largest human rights film festivals in the world.
Tea and baklava will be served at the beginning of the event.
Sanctions Against Russia: Successes, Failures, and Future Prospects | February 11, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the beginning of the war in Donbas in 2014, international sanctions have been a key instrument in exerting pressure on the Russian government to end the conflict. However, the current sanctions regime is plagued by a number of flaws and is in need of improvement. Vasyl Filipchuk and Anastacia Galouchka will analyze current sanctions, future prospects, and how the application of sanctions against Russia can be improved going forward in the context of their new report. The Latvian Ambassador to Ukraine H.E. Juris Poikans will provide opening remarks.
Speakers
Vasyl Filipchuk, Senior Advisor, International Centre for Policy Studies
Anastacia Galouchka, Expert on Foreign Policy and International Law, International Centre for Policy Studies
Ambassador Juris Poikans, Ambassador of Latvia to Ukraine
Reflections on Civil – Military Relations: Crises, Comparisons, and Paradoxes | February 11, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 8:30 PM | Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies | Register Here
Join the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and Duke University’s Program in American Grand Strategy for the 2020 Conference on Civil-Military Relations. See the schedule online.
This conference will:
- educate the audience on the history of civil-military relations, particularly the legacies of leadership, cultural change, and policy shifts during wartime
- present various dimensions of current civil-military relations debates
- engage the audience on questions of who serves, who is expected to serve, and who should serve in U.S. defense and national security, to include debates on the concepts of national service and the ethos of service
- continue to raise questions of leadership, ethics, and morals within military and civilian command and national service more broadly
Theater of War Productions will return for this conference for a performance of Theater of War: Scenes from Sophocles’ “Philoctetes”. Theater of War is an innovative public health project that presents readings of ancient Greek plays as a catalyst for town hall discussions about the challenges faced by service members, veterans, and their caregivers and families today. The performance of Sophocles’ Philoctetes will be followed by community panelist remarks and a facilitated town hall discussion.
Agenda:
11:00am – 12:00pm Arrivals & Lunch
12:00pm Opening Remarks | What We’ve Inherited: Crises in Civil-Military Relations
Mara Karlin, Johns Hopkins SAIS
12:20pm Panel 1 | What We’ve Inherited: Crises in Civil-Military Relations
Moderated by Paula Thornhill, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Peter Feaver, Duke University
Alice Hunt Friend, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Mara Karlin, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Caitlin Talmadge, Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
1:40pm Panel 2 | Civil-Military Relations Beyond the United States
Moderated by Nick Schifrin, PBS NewsHour
Risa Brooks, Marquette University
Eric Heginbotham, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sameer Lalwani, Stimson Center
Daniel Marston, Johns Hopkins SAIS
3:00pm Panel 3 | The Future of National Service
Moderated by Aaron Mehta, Defense News
Jud Crane, National Commission on National, Military, and Public Service
Jason Dempsey, Center for a New American Security
Heidi Urben, U.S. Army
4:10pm Closing Remarks | Managing Paradoxes of American Civil-Military Relations Peter Feaver, Duke University
5:00pm Scenes from Sophocles’ Philoctetes By Theater of War Productions Town Hall Discussion to Follow Off-the-Record
6:30pm Reception
7:30pm Live Podcast Recording with War on the Rocks
Nora Bensahel, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Mara Karlin, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Loren DeJonge Schulman, Center for a New American Security
Paula Thornhill, Johns Hopkins SAIS
After Trump: Defining a Progressive U.S. Policy for the Middle East | February 12, 2020 | 8:30 AM – 11:00 PM | The Century Foundation | Register Here
Approaching the brink of war with Iran in early 2020 has highlighted the risks of not pursuing a progressive U.S. policy approach to the Middle East. This event seeks to set forth a sustainable alternative U.S. foreign policy.
We will examine the animating principles and resulting policies of a more progressive approach for the Middle East. Progressive Middle East policy remains a contested concept among both policymakers and the American public: to some, it means an end to overly militarized policies and reducing U.S. commitments to avoid war; to others, it means greater U.S. investments in solving overseas conflicts, acting to prevent atrocities, and advancing human rights. Still others define it in terms of rethinking U.S. partnerships with authoritarian regimes.
A light breakfast will be served at 8:30 AM followed by keynote remarks beginning at 9:00 AM and an expert panel.
Keynote Speakers:
Senator Christopher Murphy (D-CT) s the junior United States senator for Connecticut.
Representative Ro Khanna (D-CA) represents California’s 17th Congressional District, located in the heart of Silicon Valley, and is serving in his second term.
Introductory Remarks:
Mark Zuckerman, president at The Century Foundation
Panelists:
Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow at The Century Foundation
Dina Esfandiary, fellow at The Century Foundation
Sarah Margon, director of U.S. foreign policy at the Open Society Foundations
Melissa Dalton, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
How Insurgency Begins: Rebel Group Formation in Uganda and Beyond| February 12, 2020 | 1:00 PM – 2:15 PM | Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies | Register Here
Janet Lewis is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at George Washington University. Her research examines why and how rebel groups form, with a focus on why many groups fail in the early stages, and what ethnicity has to do with it. Her book on these issues, “How Insurgency Begins: Rebel Group Formation in Uganda and Beyond,” will be published with Cambridge University Press in 2020. Her other projects seek to understand how news and beliefs travel through word-of-mouth networks in rural communities, and how states administer and monitor their peripheral regions.
She received a Ph.D., M.A. in Government from Harvard University and an M.A. in International Policy Studies from Stanford University.
George F. Kennan and the Establishment of the State of Israel | February 13, 2020 | 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM | The Wilson Center | Register Here
In the wake of World War II and the Holocaust, public sympathy grew in the United States for the establishment of a Jewish state in Palestine. Yet in a series of memos in 1947 and 1948, George F. Kennan articulated a consensus view among U.S. diplomatic and military leadership that such a state could usher in Soviet influence in the Middle East, undermine access to oil resources in the Arab states and therefore undermine U.S. national interests in the Middle East and around the world. In this talk, Jeffrey Herf will examine Kennan’s memos, the context of their emergence, and their consequences for U.S. foreign policy at the dawn of the Cold War and beyond.
Speaker
Jeffrey Herf, Fellow, Distinguished University Professor, Department of History, University of Maryland, College Park
A Changing Ethiopia: Understanding Medemer | February 13, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | The United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Nobel Peace Prize winner and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has unveiled a new political philosophy for his country: “medemer,” an Amharic word which literally translates as “addition,” or “coming together.” But what are the key principles of medemer, and how can they be applied both domestically and abroad? How does medemer link with the existing Ethiopian political and social structure? And amid ongoing change and volatility, with highly anticipated elections looming, is medemer a path to sustained reform, or merely a political slogan?
During this crucial period of reform and uncertainty in Ethiopia, join USIP and a distinguished panel that includes representatives of the Office of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for a look at the questions, possibilities, and problems offered by medemer. Join the conversation with #AChangingEthiopia.
Speakers
Fitsum Arega Gebrekidan, Ambassaador to the U.S., Ethiopia
Lencho Bati, Senior Political, Diplomatic, and Foreign Policy Advisor, Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia
Mamo Mihretu, Senior Adviser on Policy Reforms and Chief Trade Negotiator, Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia
Etana Dinka, Visiting Assistant Professor of African History and Mellon Postdoctoral Fellow, Oberlin College
Aly Verjee (moderator), Senior Advisor, Africa Program, U.S. Institute of Peace
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Stevenson’s army, February 3
– Is Iran active in Afghanistan? Centcom head says yes.
– Is there US gunboat diplomacy in Venezuela ?Looks like it
– Why didn’t Israeli cabinet vote to annex more of West Bank? Looks like US pressure worked.
– Who made State Dept dysfunctional? Kori Schake says Pompeo is only partly to blame.
-Is the political center folding? A GOP consultant was quoted over the weekend as saying, “The only thing in the center of the road is dead possums and yellow lines.” GOP message guru Frank Luntz has more in this WaPo story:
By now, Frank Luntz figured that emotionally exhausted Americans would be hungry for unity, eager to embrace moderate messages and candidates who promised to find and claim common ground.
But Luntz, a longtime Republican consultant who conducts focus groups for news organizations, has been taking the temperatures of voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and other states, and he has found that “people are desperate to vote, but the center has collapsed.”
“They want the pitchfork message, not the unity message — on both sides,” he said.
“I wish I was wrong, but that fear of losing the country is deep and very emotional, on both sides,” Luntz added. “The Trump side believes the left is trying to overturn democracy, and they will fight like hell to prevent it. And the Democrats have a disdain for Donald Trump that I’ve never seen. This isn’t as bad as 1968, but it’s pretty damn bad.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 2
– RollCall found an anonymous staffer who writes about daily life on the Hill.
– A foreigner living in Beijing describes life under the coronavirus quarantine.
– FP says Trump has dismantled the interagency system to deal with pandemics.
– WSJ has a tick-tock on the development of the administration’s Mideast plan.
– CNAS says Congress needs to revise its oversight of cybersecurity issues.
I missed Friday’s “miscellany” I think:
– Pompeo calls Chinese Communist Party “central threat of our times.”
– WH says new budget will keep Ukraine aid at current levels.
– House passes measures repealing 2002 AUMF and requiring authorization for war with Iran. Will be vetoed if Senate also approves.
– Lawfare writer says Trump is crippling NSC staff.
– UPenn has released its annual ranking of global thinktanks.
– Afghan Special IG has more bad news about Taliban strength.
– FAS has new paper on low yield nukes.
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Peace Picks|February 3-9
- Making the Case for Sustained U.S. Engagement in a Transitioning Afghanistan| February 5, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM | CSIS | Register Here
In the United States, there is a sense of “Afghanistan fatigue.” While there are certainly valid criticisms that can be levied against U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, a significant amount of social, economic, political, and public health progress has resulted from our engagement and Afghans’ own hard work and commitment.
The under-five mortality and maternal mortality rates have nearly halved since 2000. Virtually no one in Afghanistan had electricity in 2000, but by 2016, nearly 85 percent of the population did. Women’s education was practically non-existent under Taliban rule, but 3.5 million Afghan women are now enrolled in school. 170 radio stations, hundreds of print media outlets, and dozens of TV stations have opened since 2001 as free media, cell phones, television, and the internet have transformed Afghan society. GDP per capita has tripled since 2001, and official development assistance (ODA) as a percentage of central government expenditure decreased from 206 percent in 2006 to 59 percent in 2015. The Afghan National Army is now the primary group fighting the Taliban, and U.S. troop presence has dropped from 110,000 in 2011 to the current plan of 8,600. But Afghanistan’s political progress and social gains are at risk of collapse if the United States chooses to completely disengage from the country. Given the mix of gains and disappointments, how do we establish the correct framework for U.S. engagement with a transitioning Afghanistan in 2020 and beyond?
Speakers:
Representative Michael Waltz: U.S. Representative for Florida’s 6th Congressional District
Rina Amiri: Senior Fellow, NYU Center for Global Affairs and Steering Committee Member, Alliance in Support of the Afghan People (ASAP)
Peter Bergen: Vice President of Global Studies and Fellows, New America
Earl Gast: Executive Vice President for Programs, Creative Associates International and Former Afghanistan Mission Director, USAID
- A Women’s Place: US Counterterrorism Since 9/11 Policy Roundtable| February 5, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM | Stimson Center | Register Here
We will be joined by Dr. Joana Cook, author of the new book “A Woman’s Place: US Counterterrorism Since 9/11,” Seamus Hughes of the George Washington University Program on Extremism, and Lauren Protentis, communications and national security expert.
- United States Strategy for Central Asia: Advancing Sovereignty and Economic Prosperity| February 5, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here
The Heritage Foundation will host a moderated discussion to launch the United States’ new Strategy for Central Asia (2019-2025). Deputy Assistant to the President Lisa Curtis will join Ambassador Alice Wells and Acting Assistant Administrator Gloria Steele for a public address and discussion on the administration’s priorities and future prospects for U.S. engagement in Central Asia. Remarks will outline how the United States will support the five countries’ efforts to improve regional security, bolster economic connectivity, and ensure sovereignty and independence across the region.
Speakers:
Lisa Curtis: Deputy Assistant to the President and Senior Director for South and Central Asia, National Security Council
Ambassador Alice: Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, Department of State
Gloria Steele: Acting Assistant Administrator, Bureau for Asia, United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
Luke Coffey: Director, Douglas & Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy
- Accountability in Syria: Achieving Transitional Justice in A Postconflict Society| February 5, 2020 | 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM | Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
Join us for a book discussion on the challenges of achieving accountability and justice in postconflict Syria. Gross violations of International Humanitarian Law and International Human Rights Laws have been committed in Syria. After a full cessation of violence, launching transitional justice processes will signal to the victims that those responsible for committing these crimes will be brought to reparation and that the time of impunity is over. This book discusses the available options of justice and how accountability will be achieved through international systems and a new hybrid court system.
Speakers:
Mai El-Sadany: Legal and Judicial Director, The Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy
Mohammad Alaa Ghanem: Syrian Academic and Pro-democracy Campaigner
Radwan Ziadeh: Senior Fellow, Arab Center Washington DC
- Escaping the Conflict Trap: Toward Ending Civil Wars in the Middle East| February 6, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 12:45 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The civil wars racking the Middle East have torn
the political, social and economic fabric of Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya
and Yemen. MEI has released a pathbreaking book, Escaping the Conflict Trap:
Toward Ending Civil Wars in the Middle East, to deal with these difficult but
important issues. The book was co-edited by MEI President Paul Salem and MEI
Senior Fellow Ross Harrison, and includes contributions from former senior
diplomats, MEI experts and academics.
This half-day
conference will address the insights and findings from this important book.
Contributing authors will share their views about the individual civil wars, as
well as their regional and global geopolitical backdrop.
Speakers:
Nadia Bilbassy: Senior Correspondent, Al-Arabiya TV and MBC TV
Chester Crocker: Former Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of African Affairs; James R. Schlesinger Professor of the Practice of Strategic Studies
Ambassador (ret.) Robert Ford: Senior Fellow, MEI; Former US Ambassador to Syria
Ambassador (ret.) Gerald Feierstein: Senior Vice President, MEI; Former US Ambassador to Yemen
Ross Harrison: Senior Fellow, MEI
Anne Patterson: Former Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs
Paul Salem: President, MEI
Dan Serwer: Non-resident scholar, MEI; director, Conflict Management and American Foreign Policy program, John Hopkins SAIS
Randa Slim: Senior Fellow and Director, Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program, MEI
Marvin Weinbaum: Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, MEI
Jonathan Winer: Non-resident scholar, MEI
- Is War Over| February 6, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM | CATO Institute | Register Here
A scholarly debate has emerged over trends in global conflict and the future of warfare. Is the international system becoming more peaceful, or is it just as violent and war-prone as it always has been? Is great-power war a thing of the past, or has it merely been dormant under changing technological and institutional conditions? Crafting an appropriate U.S. foreign policy is dependent on accurately measuring the state of war and peace in the world. Please join us for a discussion of these vital issues.
Speakers:
Paul Poast: Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago
John Mueller: Political Scientist, Ohio State University; Senior Fellow, CATO Institute
Christopher Fettweis: Professor of Political Science, Tulane University
Bethany Lacine: Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Rochester
John Glaser: Director of Foreign Policy Studies, CATO Institute
- NATO and the New Decade: Assessing the Transatlantic Alliance| February 7, 2020 | 11:45 AM – 1:00 PM | Hudson Institute | Register Here
Last year, NATO marked the 70th anniversary of the founding of the alliance. At the start of the new decade, a united, flexible, and future-minded NATO is needed more than ever.
Join Hudson Institute for a discussion with NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana. Mr. Geoana has served as the minister of foreign affairs of Romania, the president of the Romanian Senate, and as ambassador of Romania to the United States. He has held his current role since July 2019.
Calls for a reexamination of NATO’s relevance and effectiveness come amidst a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. President Trump has been a vocal proponent of burden sharing to ensure the organization’s lasting success. Speaking in December at the NATO Leaders Meeting, he said the alliance had taken positive steps and “increased the numbers that other countries are paying … by $130 billion.”
How is NATO delivering on burden sharing and what impact does this have on the alliance’s ability to carry out its missions and operations? How is the organization adapting to a new security environment? What are the key challenges facing the alliance in the decade ahead?
Speakers:
Mircea Geoană: Deputy Secretary General, NATO
Peter Rough: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Ken Weinstein: President and CEO, Hudson Institute
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Acquitted, not exonerated
You’ll be hearing a lot next week about how the Senate is exonerating President Trump of false charges brought by the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives. Nothing could be further than the truth. Senator Lamar Alexander had the temerity to speak the truth:
There is no need for more evidence to prove that the president asked Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden and his son, Hunter; he said this on television on October 3, 2019, and during his July 25, 2019, telephone call with the president of Ukraine. There is no need for more evidence to conclude that the president withheld United States aid, at least in part, to pressure Ukraine to investigate the Bidens; the House managers have proved this with what they call a ‘mountain of overwhelming evidence.’ …It was inappropriate for the president to ask a foreign leader to investigate his political opponent and to withhold United States aid to encourage that investigation. When elected officials inappropriately interfere with such investigations, it undermines the principle of equal justice under the law….
The question then is not whether the president did it, but whether the United States Senate or the American people should decide what to do about what he did. I believe that the Constitution provides that the people should make that decision in the presidential election that begins in Iowa on Monday.
It was Alexander’s judgment (contained in the areas I’ve marked with…) that what Trump did, including in refusing all requests for documents and testimony, did not rise to the level required for removal from office.
If Alexander and other Republican Senators believe that the President is guilty as charged , they should have no problem with a motion of censure against the President, denouncing his undermining of the principle of equality before the law and warning him off from further efforts to enlist foreign help in the 2020 election.
Failing that, it seems to me the Democrats need a way of expressing their displeasure at the State of the Union address Tuesday. They might “take a knee,” for example, but then a lot of them might not be able to get up. Other possibilities come to mind: wearing black armbands in mourning for American democracy, turning their backs as the President enters the room, walking out as soon as he claims exoneration, or boycotting the event altogether. I rather like the idea of a boycott or walkout, but either would leave Speaker Pelosi alone with her adversaries, as she formally invited the impeached President to address the Congress and will preside over the event.
No doubt impeachment alone is a stain on Donald Trump’s presidency and ample warning for any normal politician against seeking or accepting foreign assistance in the next election. But Trump is a man who feels no shame, so that hardly matters. What matters, as Senator Alexander suggests, is how Americans vote in November. I am already convinced he will lose the popular vote, likely by a margin wider than the 2.8 million or so votes he lost it last time. New York and California, which voted against him in 2016 by wide margins, will tilt even more heavily to the Democrats, if only because the Trump tax cut actually raised taxes on many voters in states with high state income taxes.
Trump can however still win in the Electoral College, which gives a voter in a less populous state like Wyoming several times the weight in choosing the president than a voter in New York or California. This powersharing arrangement with less populous states was a necessary distortion of “one-person, one-vote” in forming the Union in the 18th century. It is now a grossly unfair anachronism that is difficult to fix, as it requires either a constitutional amendment or approval by more states of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Neither is going to happen before November.
Americans supported impeachment by a narrow margin. Now the Democrats have to make lemonade from the lemons of their defeat in the Senate. Defeating Trump in the election will require either winning back Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan (which Hillary Clinton lost by less than a total of 80,000 votes), or beating him Florida and Texas, where the 2016 results were close and demographic trends favor the Democrats but not yet by enough to make victory there likely.
Trump’s trade wars have brought little benefit and much harm to the US, the economy is slowing, the Administration’s main foreign policy initiatives (with North Korea, Venezuela, Iran, and Israel/Palestine) are failing, its immigration and voter suppression policies are racist, America’s allies are hedging, and a candidate who promised withdrawal from the Middle East as President is sending more troops there. Failure to hold Trump accountable in November would be an inexcusable error. He should not be acquitted again.
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