Tag: Israel/Palestine
Marching towards different wars
Both Iran and the United States are signaling escalation in the wake of the assassination of Quds force commander Qasem Soleimani. Tehran said it had identified 35 targets. President Trump responded with a tweet threat against 52:
Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD. The USA wants no more threats!
Both have the capability, and perhaps the will. It all sounds strikingly symmetrical.
But there the parallel ends. The wars they are contemplating are different. Iran can hit 35 US targets, but only using proxy forces in other countries or cyber attacks. The US can hit 52 sites, but only with stand-off weapons like drones and cruise missiles, in addition to cyber attacks. That I suspect makes cyber attacks less likely: the Americans presumably have the greater capability in that domain, but they also have far more to lose if the Iranians prove even marginally competent. Will Tehran care much if its citizens don’t have internet access?
Neither the US nor Iran wants a traditional ground war. The Iranians because they would lose, should the Americans deploy the kind of force they did in attacking Iraq in 2003. But that isn’t happening. The American electorate is not prepared to support that kind of effort, and the Administration has done nothing to try to mobilize it. President Trump can deploy a few thousand additional troops to the Middle East to protect American embassies and other facilities, but hundreds of thousands are not in the cards.
Trump is hoping his threats of escalation will bring Iran to the negotiating table, where he hopes to get a “better” agreement than President Obama’s nuclear deal. It’s the North Korea gambit: loud threats, some action, then hugs and kisses. If that fails, he will try a stand-off and cyber attack. If he has a game plan beyond that, he has kept it a good secret. He has so far been unwilling to loosen sanctions, which is what the Iranians want.
The Iranians are fighting on different battlefields. They may threaten proxy and cyber attacks, and even indulge in some, but their better bets are forcing the US troops out of Iraq (there is an advisory vote tomorrow on that in the Iraqi parliament) and acquiring all the material and technology they need to build nuclear weapons. Kim Jong-un got respect once he had nukes. Why shouldn’t the Supreme Leader expect the same?
Nothing about American intervention in the Middle East in the past two decades has brought much more than grief to the United States. Trillions of dollars and thousands of American deaths later, we have accomplished little. Iran has gained from the removal of arch-rival Saddam Hussein, protected its ally Bashar al Assad from insurgency, strengthened its position on Israel’s northern borders, and helped the Houthis in Yemen to harass Saudi Arabia.
President Trump had it right when he ran in 2016 on avoiding new Middle East wars and bringing American troops home. But that requires a serious strategy and commitment to diplomacy and alliances that he has been unwilling to make. Now he risks getting the Americans sent home and confronting an Iran that has nuclear capabilities. You tell me who is fighting on the right battlefield.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
New year, old problems
– US sending nearly 5K more troops to Middle East.
– David Sanger assesses Trump’s problems with Iran and North Korea.
–Kim warns of new tests.
– Marc Lynch foresees more problems in Middle East.
– Cyber developments affecting the battlefield.
-Congress wants more civilian power in Pentagon.
– Bruce Jentleson wants more attention to history in US foreign policy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
The end is nigh 2019
Except for my 401k, the teens have not been a great decade. We’ve watched the Arab spring turn into the Arab civil wars, Russia reassert itself annexing Crimea and invading Ukraine, China increase its overt and covert challenges to the US, and North Korea defy American efforts to limit or eliminate its nuclear and missile programs. The US has initiated trade wars, withdrawn from international commitments (including the Paris climate change accord as well as the Iran nuclear deal and the intermediate nuclear forces agreement), and abandoned its support for democracy and rule of law, not only but importantly in Israel and Palestine.
Several of these developments could worsen in 2020. The Iran/US tit-for-tat is more likely to escalate than de-escalate. Some Arab civil wars like Yemen and Syria are burning out, but others are spreading beyond the Arab world, with Turkey intervening in Syria and Libya, Russia and Egypt in Libya, and Iran in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Russia is not advancing in Ukraine, but it seems disinclined to withdraw via the Minsk II agreement that would re-establish Ukraine’s control over its southeastern border with Russia and allow a significant degree of autonomy for Luhansk and Donetsk. China and the US have reached a limited and partial agreement on trade, but no more comprehensive accord is in sight. North Korea is bound to test more missiles, if not nuclear weapons.
US mistakes are especially concerning. The withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal has freed Iran to begin to violate its provisions, accelerating the date at which Tehran will have all the technology it needs to make nuclear weapons. Global warming is accelerating and the arms race with Russia is quickening. NATO is not brain dead, but US leadership of the alliance is more in doubt than ever before due to the President’s inability to recognize the real advantages a multilateral partnership gives to American power projection. American abandonment of even the pretense of evenhandedness in Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians has opened the door to extremist Jewish ambitions to annex the West Bank.
Only 11 months remain before the next US presidential election. It will focus mainly on domestic issues like the economy, health care, religion, and race. But there can be no doubt the United States is less well positioned internationally than it was in January 2017, when President Trump took office. The rest of the world increasingly regards the U.S. as a menace to peace and security, not its guarantor. Excessive reliance on military force and erratic decisionmaking have reduced American influence. Even the relatively strong economy, which has continued to grow at the pace established in the Obama administration and thereby reduced unemployment to historic lows, has not propped up American prestige, because of Trump’s trade wars. Enthusiasm for America is at a nadir in most of the world.
We can hope for better and toast the prospects this evening. But there is little reason to believe the United States is going to recover until it gets new leadership, not only in the White House but also in the Senate, where the new year will see some semblance of a “trial” of President Trump on self-evident impeachment charges. He tried to extort Ukraine into investigating a political rival for his personal benefit using US government resources and has withheld cooperation with the resulting investigation. But few if any Republican Senators seem ready to acknowledge the facts. I might hope Chief Justice Roberts will refuse to preside over a sham procedure and insist on testimony, but he has given no hint of that yet.
America is a great country. It has survived many mistakes. But whether it can get through the next year without doing itself irreversible harm is in doubt. It could “acquit” and re-elect a president most of the world regards as more of a threat to peace and security than Vladimir Putin. Or it could, against the odds, redeem itself and its role in the world with a conviction, a good election free of international interference, and inauguration of someone the world and most its citizens can respect. Take your choice, America.
And happy New Year!
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Peace Picks | December 2 – December 6
Lessons for Building Creative Economies | December 3, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 10:30 AM | CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Many countries around the world have large populations of impoverished people and high unemployment rates. In order to improve conditions in these countries, national governments must come up with effective economic growth strategies, and strengthening the creative industries should be at the forefront of these strategies. Over 100 countries have national plans for their creative economies, but few have made significant progress toward creating the enabling environment for creative industries—film, fashion, music, art, gaming, etc.—to thrive. World trade in creative goods and services grew at an average annual rate of 14 percent between 2002 and 2008, even during the 2008 global financial crisis. The countries with the largest creative economies in 2013 were the United States, China, Britain, Germany, Japan, France, and Brazil. The creative economy is a major driver of job creation, and countries that are implementing policies to boost their creative industries are already reaping the benefits. The longer countries wait, the more difficult it will be to create an enabling environment needed for culture and creative industries.
Overtaking Europe and North America, the Asia-Pacific is now the world’s leading region in CCIs, producing $743 billion in revenue in 2013. Through the launch of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy under President Donald Trump’s administration, the United States is rapidly expanding its engagement in Asia. Similarly, Taiwan launched the New Southbound Policy (NSP) in 2016, aiming to expand its development impact among its neighbors. One country that is looking for partners on the creative economy is Indonesia, which has enormous potential for growing both its creative imports and exports.
As part of this public event, CSIS will be releasing a report, Lessons for Building Creative Economies, based on recent case study trips to Taipei, Taiwan and Jakarta, Indonesia. The report will be posted on this webpage on December 3, and hard copies will be available at the public event.
This event is made possible with generous support from the Ministry of Culture of Taiwan.
FEATURING
Chairperson, Taiwan Creative Content Agency (TAICCA)
Senior Deputy Chairman, National Endowment for the Humanities (NEH)
Author, The Creative Wealth of Nations
Managing Director, American Chamber of Commerce in Indonesia
The Afghan People Make Their Voices Heard | December 3, 2019 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | 2301 Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20037 | Register Here
The past year has been marked by great uncertainty for the people of Afghanistan. Continued attacks, record-high levels of civilian deaths, and the repeated postponement of presidential elections have taken a toll on Afghan society. Meanwhile, unprecedented talks between the U.S. and Taliban inspired both hope and fear before they broke down in September. With confidence in a peace process still tempered by concerns over an abrupt U.S. withdrawal and the implications for Afghan women, the importance of comprehensive, reliable data on the views of Afghan citizens cannot be overstated.
Join USIP as we host The Asia Foundation for the launch of their 15th Survey of the Afghan People. First commissioned in 2004, the annual survey provides an unmatched barometer of Afghan public opinion over time and serves as a unique resource for policymakers, the international community, the Afghan government, and the broader public in Afghanistan. This year’s survey added new questions to further explore Afghan attitudes toward the peace process, elections, and the prospects for reconciliation.
Based on face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 17,812 citizens across all 34 Afghan provinces, the results reveal citizens’ views on a wide range of key issues, including security, the economy, corruption, justice, reconciliation with the Taliban, access to media, the role of women, governance, and political participation.
Speakers
Nancy Lindborg, opening remarks
President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
David D. Arnold, opening remarks
President and Chief Executive Officer, The Asia Foundation
Abdullah Ahmadzai
Country Director, Afghanistan, The Asia Foundation
Tabasum Akseer
Director of Policy and Research in Afghanistan, The Asia Foundation
Amb. Daniel Feldman
Asia Foundation Trustee, Senior of Counsel, Covington &
Burling; Former U.S Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan
Scott Worden, moderator
Director, Afghanistan and Central Asia Programs, U.S Institute of Peace
The Seas as the Next Frontier: Is Maritime Security in the Gulf a Flashpoint or Starting Point? | December 4, 2019 | 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM | 1050 Connecticut Ave NW, Suite 1060, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
On December 4, AGSIW hosts a panel discussion on the issue of maritime security in the Gulf.
The recent attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz were a potent reminder of the need for the Gulf Arab countries as well as their neighbors and international partners to address an issue of fundamental importance to the region: maritime security.
Until recently, most Gulf Arab countries paid scant attention to maritime security, despite its centrality to their economies. However, the situation has changed considerably in the last decade, as a result of a realization that their lack of military readiness in the Gulf waters and Indian Ocean is a substantial vulnerability. Regional ambitions and a desire to participate in international security initiatives also have served as catalysts for Gulf Arab states’ action.
Yet, even as tensions in and around the Gulf have grown so has a perception that maritime security may provide a sorely needed starting point for discussions between Gulf Arab states and Iran. How do recent events in the Gulf of Oman and elsewhere around the Arabian Peninsula figure into the broader context of regional maritime security? Do the Gulf Arab states share the same threat perceptions and agree on the remedies? What role can international partners play in helping to ensure freedom of navigation in these waterways, which are crucial to global commerce?
Speakers
Senior Fellow, International Institute for Strategic Studies
Consultant and Policy Advisor
Senior Policy Analyst, RAND Corporation
Moderator
Visiting Scholar
The Middle East Institute’s 10th Annual Turkey Conference | December 4, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 4:00 PM | National Press Club, 529 14th Street NW, Washington, DC 20045 | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES) are pleased to host the 10th Annual Conference on Turkey. The conference will bring together policymakers and experts to discuss the challenges Turkey faces domestically and its relations with the Middle East and the West.
Agenda:
9:00am-9:15am | Welcome Remarks
Knut Dethlefsen
Representative to the U.S. and Canada, FES
Gönül Tol
Director, Center for Turkish Studies, MEI
9:15am-10:45am | Panel I: Turkey after the Istanbul
elections
Ruşen Çakır
Journalist, Medyascope
Aykan Erdemir
Senior fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Fehmi Koru
Freelance journalist
Giran Özcan
Washington representative, Peoples’ Democratic Party
Gönül Tol (moderator)
Director, Center for Turkish Studies, MEI
10:45am-11:00am | Coffee Break
11:00am-11:45am | Keynote Remarks & Audience Q&A
Hon. Nils Schmid, MP
Member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, German Bundestag
Congressman Brendan F. Boyle
Member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, House of Representatives, U.S.
Congress
Ambassador (ret.) Gerald Feierstein (moderator)
Senior Vice President, MEI
12:00pm-1:30pm | Panel II: Art in the time of
authoritarianism
Kenan Behzat Sharpe
Founder & Co-Editor, Blind Field: A Journal of Cultural Inquiry
Ayşe Öncü
Professor, Department of Sociology, Sabancı University
Sarp Palaur
Director & Musician, Susamam
Lisel Hintz (moderator)
Assistant professor of international relations, Johns Hopkins SAIS
1:30pm-2:30pm | Lunch Buffet
2:30pm-4:00pm | Panel III: Turkey between NATO and Russia
Ivan Safranchuk
Associate Research Scholar & Lecturer, MacMillan Center for International
and Area Studies, Yale University
Aydın Selcen
Columnist, GazeteDuvar & DuvarEnglish
General (ret.) Joseph Votel
Distinguished Senior Fellow on National Security, MEI
Jim Zanotti
Specialist, Middle Eastern Affairs, Congressional Research Service
Barbara Slavin (moderator)
Director of Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
4:00pm | Close
US Strategic Interests in Ukraine | December 4, 2019 | 11:30 AM | Capitol Visitor Center, First St NE, Washington, DC 20515, Congressional Meeting Room North (CVC) | Register Here
Perhaps more than ever before, Ukraine dominates the news and the domestic political conversation. Despite the ongoing debate, Russia continues to wage an undeclared war in Ukraine, which has led to the death of 13,000 Ukrainians. Additionally, Ukraine’s newly elected president and parliament face considerable challenges and opportunities as they pursue critical reforms and a just peace in eastern Ukraine and Crimea. This bipartisan event is meant to reaffirm US support for Ukraine, as well as to propose key policy recommendations for US lawmakers.
Speakers
Welcoming Remarks
The Hon. Marcy Kaptur
US Representative for Ohio’s 9th Congressional District
The Hon. Brian Fitzpatrick
US Representative for Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District
The Hon. Andy Harris
US Representative for Maryland’s 1st Congressional District
Special Remarks
The Hon. Chris Murphy
US Senator for Connecticut
Panel: Why does Ukraine matter to the United States?
Leon Aron
Resident Scholar; Director, Russian Studies
American Enterprise Institute
Ilan Berman
Senior Vice President
American Foreign Policy Council
Heather Conley
Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; Director, Europe
Program
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Ambassador John
Herbst
Director, Eurasia Center
Atlantic Council
Dr. Donald N. Jensen
Editor in Chief, Senior Fellow
Center for European Policy Analysis
Moderated by
Myroslava
Gongadze
Chief
Ukrainian Service, Voice of America
Special Remarks
The Hon. Ron Johnson
US Senator for Wisconsin
Panel: What can be done to ensure Ukraine succeeds?
Luke Coffey
Director, Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy, Kathryn and
Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy
The Heritage Foundation
Glen Howard
President
The Jamestown Foundation
Jonathan Katz
Senior Fellow
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Dr. Alina
Polyakova
Director, Project on Global Democracy and Emerging Technologies
The Brookings Institution
Dr. Paul Stronski
Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Moderated by
Melinda
Haring
Deputy Director, Eurasia Center
Atlantic Council
Global Partnerships to Combat Cybercrime & the Challenge of Going Dark | December 5, 2019 | 2:30 PM – 4:00 PM | CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Digital technologies are creating new challenges for law enforcement agencies around the world. Cybercrime is proliferating due to the growing sophistication of online criminal networks and the difficulties of trans-national enforcement. Investigations of traditional crimes are also becoming more difficult as encryption, ephemerality, and other technical measures create obstacles for accessing digital evidence. This event will examine how global cooperation can help to address these issues in a way that ensures a balance between the protection of civil liberties and the needs of the law enforcement community.
Agenda
2:15 pm – Registration
2:30 pm – Keynote
Ferdinand Grapperhaus, Dutch Minister of Justice and Security
2:50 pm – Moderated Panel Discussion
Theo van der Plas, Chief Superintendent, Deputy Chief
Constable, National Program Director Cybercrime and Digitization
Jennifer Daskal, Professor and Faculty Director of the Tech, Law, Security
Program at American University Washington College of Law
Matthew Noyes, Director of Cyber Policy and Strategy at the U.S. Secret
Service
3:20 pm – Audience Q&A
3:50 pm – Closing Thoughts
4:00 pm – END
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, November 24
– There is now bipartisan agreement on the 302(b) allocations, so each appropriations subcommittee has a topline for their conferencing.
– CRS has a new report on the legislative appropriations bill.
– Two longtime diplomats note how US presidents have regularly acquiesced in Israeli settlement expansion.
– The Post describes the parallel governments for US foreign policy.
– Politico says Trump does more governing from the residence than the Oval Office.
– Documents link SecState Pompeo even closer to Ukraine policies.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
QED quid pro quo
US Ambassador to the European Union confirmed to the House of Representatives under oath today that he was acting on instructions from President Trump with the knowledge of the National Security Council and the State Department in demanding that Ukraine initiate investigations of former Vice President Biden and his son in exchange for already appropriated military aid. This is corrupt abuse of power: using US government assets to extort and bribe a foreign sovereign into providing assistance to President Trump’s re-election efforts.
Or more simply: it proves that President Trump ordered Sondland to pursue a corrupt purpose.
That this behavior is impeachable is beyond doubt. It is precisely the kind of behavior the US Constitution envisages as justifying not only investigation but also impeachment, followed by trial in the Senate.
There’s the rub. The Senate would have to vote by a two-thirds majority to remove Trump from office. There is no sign yet that the 20 Republicans needed to vote against him are likely to be available.
Any normal president would be chastened by today’s testimony and the impeachment that will follow, even if he were confident of winning the vote in the Senate. That won’t be Trump’s reaction. He will unleash a torrent of attacks against witnesses (especially those who are women), Democrats, and the world for treating him worse than has ever been treated before. This hyperbole feeds Fox News commentary and mobilizes his base, which not only believes what he says but is deaf to factual refutation.
Only when the country starts turning against Trump will the Senate Republicans find their courage. If they conclude they are going down with him, they will shift towards approving his removal from office. There is no evidence yet of that. The White House is doing everything it can to ensure that the shift doesn’t begin, because once it does they fear an avalanche. Senators are being threatened with primary fights and cajoled with every means available.
Meanwhile the nation’s foreign policy is mostly on neglectful autopilot, which may be the best we can hope for. There are no signs of real movement toward US objectives in North Korea, Venezuela, or Iran, all Trump Administration priorities. Russian military operations contrary to US interests continue in Ukraine and in Syria. The trade war with China continues to slow world and US economic growth.
Only on Israel has the Administration moved the ball lately, in the wrong direction: Secretary Pompeo has reversed US policy on West Bank settlements, claiming they are not inconsistent with international law. That is patent nonsense intended to feed another bone to Trump’s evangelical supporters, who like Greater Israel. The Administration has in practice abandoned the two-state solution, setting up the Palestinians either to struggle to restore or to claim equal rights within Greater Israel, where they would constitute a majority. No one who supports Israel should want either of those things to happen.
RSS - Posts
