Tag: Israel/Palestine
Peace Picks | September 23 – 27
1. How to Avoid the Arab Resource Curse | September 23, 2019 | 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM | Georgetown University-Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, 3700 O Street, N.W., 241 Intercultural Center (ICC), Washington, DC 20057, USA | Register Here
For over eighty years the Arab region has been deriving massive wealth from its natural resources. Nevertheless, its economic performance has been at the mercy of ebbs and flows of oil prices and its resources have been slowly depleting. The two critical questions are why and how Arab countries might escape the oil curse.
Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies focuses on the unique features of the Arab world to explain the disappointing outcomes of macroeconomic policy. It explores the interaction between oil and institutions to draw policy recommendations on how Arab countries can best exploit their oil revenues to avoid the resource curse. Case studies and contributions from experts provide an understanding of macroeconomic institutions (including their underlying rules, procedures and institutional arrangements) in oil-rich Arab economies and of their political economy environment, which has largely been overlooked in previous research.
The volume offers novel macroeconomic policy propositions for exchange rate regimes, fiscal policy and oil wealth distribution that is more consistent with macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability. These policy reforms, if implemented successfully, could go a long way in helping the resource-rich countries of the Arab region and elsewhere to avoid the oil curse.
Join CCAS for a book launch of the new volume, “Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-rich Arab Economies,” featuring editors and contributing authors to the book.
Featuring
Joseph Sassoon (Discussion Chair) Professor, School of Foreign Service and History Department, Georgetown University
Ibrahim Elbadawi (Contributing Author) Minister of Finance and Economy, Republic of Sudan (joining via video call)
Shanta Devarajan (Contributing Author) Professor, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Hoda Selim (Volume Co-editor) Research Fellow, Economic Research Forum
Nada
Eissa (Discussant) Associate Professor,
McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University
2. A Climate of Concern: What Climate Change Means for Food Security and Political Stability in Africa | September 25, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 10:30 AM | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Please join the CSIS Global
Food Security Project for a discussion with a panel of experts on the
relationship between climate change, political instability, and food security
using current events on the African continent as a lens. The emerging consensus
is that climate change poses significant national security
threats. However, specific linkages between climate change and
political instability are still opaque. As climate change reshapes the
agricultural landscape across Africa, there is concern that higher food prices
and falling yields will lead to widespread urban unrest and catalyze
participation in armed extremist movements.
Preceded by a keynote from Senator Bob Casey (D-PA), the discussion will
examine how climate change is interacting with demographic trends in Africa to
both heighten risks associated with agriculture in rural areas and those
associated with dependence on global markets in urban areas. Our panelists will
explore several issues such as how averting crisis in the face of climate
change and food insecurity will require:
- Better incorporation of agricultural production and food prices—both global and local—into risk assessments.
- Reinvestment in agricultural and transport infrastructure to reform global agricultural trade to make it more climate-resilient for consumers and producers in the developing world.
- Opportunities
to work with regional governments to develop more inclusive responses to manage
political and economic instability.
FEATURING
U.S. Senator (D-PA)
Vice President for Policy, U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP)
Director & Practice Head, Africa, Eurasia Group
Erin Sikorsky
Deputy Director, Strategic Futures Group, National Intelligence Council, Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Professor, Korbel School of
International Studies (University of Denver) & Director, Sié Chéou-Kang
Center for International Security and Diplomacy
3. Beyond the Brink: Escalation Dominance in the U.S.-China Trade War | September 25, 2019 | 2:30 PM – 5:00 PM | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The U.S.-China trade war is unprecedented in size, scope, and importance. The potential economic costs of the conflict—and any decoupling it prompts—are enormous, not only to the United States and China but to the global economy. Nearly 18 months since escalation began, the path to resolution is still unclear.
In this event, senior experts will discuss the state of U.S.-China trade relations today and roll out a major CSIS report on escalation dynamics in economic conflict. The event will draw on game theory as well as observations of real-world escalation to help policymakers manage economic conflict with China.
Agenda:
Welcome
and Presentation of Findings
Matthew P. Goodman
Senior Vice President and Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS
Expert Panel Discussion
Scott Kennedy
Senior Adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics, CSIS
William Reinsch
Senior Adviser and Scholl Chair in International Business, CSIS
Claire Reade
Senior Counsel, Arnold & Porter
Stephanie Segal
Senior
Fellow, Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS
4. Syria Study Group Releases Final Report | September 26, 2019 | 2:30 PM – 4:30 PM | U.S. Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 | Register Here
Well into its ninth year, the conflict in Syria is a devastating humanitarian tragedy and a source of regional instability with serious implications for U.S. national security. Last year, Congress directed USIP to facilitate the bipartisan Syria Study Group (SSG) in order to examine the current state of the conflict and make recommendations on the military and diplomatic strategy of the United States going forward.
The release of the SSG’s final report follows months of extensive consultations across a broad range of stakeholders and experts, as well as travel to the region. It represents the consensus of all twelve Congressionally-appointed SSG members and offers a bipartisan roadmap for the way ahead.
Please join the Syria Study Group for a panel
discussion and presentation of the final report’s assessments and
recommendations. The event will include a keynote address from Senator Jeanne
Shaheen (D-NH), who spearheaded the creation of the bipartisan study group.
Stay tuned for additional speaker updates. The list of SSG members can be seen here.
5. The Future of Nuclear Arms Control | September 26, 2019 | 12:15 PM – 1:30 PM | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW | Register Here
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is pleased to invite you to a discussion on The Future of Nuclear Arms Control with Mrs. Mary Robinson, former President of Ireland, and Dr. Gro Harlem Brundtland, former Prime Minister of Norway, of The Elders.
Founded by Nelson Mandela, The Elders are a group of former heads of state and senior United Nations officials who work together for peace, justice and human rights. Robinson and Brundtland will present some of the key insights and recommendations for minimizing the dangers posed by nuclear weapons contained in the recent paper, Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament.
Following the brief presentation, George Perkovich will lead a discussion with Robinson and Brundtland and then open the floor for dialogue with audience participants. A lite lunch will be served.
6. Governing in a Post-Conflict Country in Transition | September 27, 2019 | 10 AM | Johns Hopkins University – Kenney-Herter Auditorium 1740 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, D.C. 20036 | Register Here
Since 2011 and the fall of the Gaddafi regime in 2011, Libya has been going through a difficult and often violent transition. Mr. Serraj, the head of Libya’s Presidential Council and Prime Minister, who assumed office at the end of 2015, will share with us his experience in governing in such difficult post-conflict circumstances, the prospects for the future of Libya, and what the US and International Community can do to help.
Mr. Faiez Sarraj was born in Tripoli, Libya, in 1960. He currently serves as the President of the Presidential Council of Libya and the Prime Minister of the Government of National Accord.
Mr. Sarraj began his political career as a member of the National Dialogue Committee and he was elected to the House of Representatives for the District of Andalus in the city of Tripoli.
Mr. Sarraj had previously worked in the Libyan Social Security Fund, Department of Project Management. He served as a consultant in the Utilities Engineering Consultancy Office in Libya and worked in the private sector for an engineering project management firm. Moreover, Mr. Al-Sarraj worked as the chairman of the Housing Committee in the House of Representatives in Libya and was a member of the Energy Committee in the House of Representatives.
7. War Crimes in Syria: Identifying Perpetrators and Seeking Justice | September 27, 2019 | 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM | Middle East Institute, 1763 N Street NW Washington, District of Columbia 20036 | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a joint panel with the Pro-Justice to launch the new book, Blacklist: Violations Committed by the Most Prominent Syrian Regime Figures and How to Bring Them to Justice.
Blacklist identifies and provides detailed information on nearly 100 individuals accused of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in Syria over the past eight years. The book also sheds light on the crimes themselves and outlines potential political and judicial avenues available to bring the perpetrators to justice.
A panel of experts will delve into prospects for promoting transitional justice and accountability in Syria as part of any post-conflict scenario.
Speakers:
- Anne Barnard is a New York Times journalist who covers climate and environment for the Metro desk.
- Wael Sawah is the president and director of Pro-Justice.
- Charles Lister is a senior fellow and director of the Countering Terrorism and Extremism program at the Middle East Institute.
- Joyce Karam (moderator) is the Washington Correspondent for The National, a leading English daily based in Abu Dhabi, and an adjunct professor at George Washington University, school of Political Science.
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Peace Picks September 16-22
1.Israeli Elections and Minority Communities|September 17, 2019|10:00 AM-11:30AM|Middle East Institute|1763 N Street NW, Washington District of Columbia 20036|Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to present a panel hosted in partnership with the Foundation for Middle East Peace and the New Israel Fund to discuss how minority rights have factored into Israeli parliamentary elections in 2019, both the first election in April and the snap elections taking place on September 17th. Like the first election, this second round of votes again systematically ignored issues facing Israel’s minority communities, including Palestinian citizens of Israel and Bedouin communities living in the Negev. This panel will discuss those issues and examine how Israel’s major political parties and its leaders have treated minority communities on the campaign trail.
This event is part of the George and Rhonda Salem Family Foundation Lecture Series.
Co-sponsor:
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to sponsor this event in conjunction with the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP).
Featuring:
Ayesha Ziadna is the Director of Sabeel Leadership Institute of the Arab-Jewish Center for Empowerment, Equality, and Cooperation Negev Institute for Strategies of Peace and Economic Development (AJEEC NISPED)
Tal Avrech joined the Negev Coexistence Forum for Civil Equality (NCF) in 2018 and is currently responsible for international relations and NCF’s head researcher
Harry Reis is the Director for Policy and Strategy at the New Israel Fund
Lara Friedman (moderator) is the President of the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP)
2.Future Projections for the Middle East: Game Changers for 2030 and Beyond|September 19, 2019|9:00 AM-2:15 PM|Middle East Institute|1763 N Street NW, Washington District of Columbia 20036|Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a conference on future projections for the Middle East, assessing projected trends, drives, policy responses, and future challenges for the MENA region in 2030 and beyond.
Agenda
9:00–9:15 AM | Welcoming Remarks and Overview of the Day
Paul Salem President, MEI
Amb. Gerald Feierstein Senior vice president, MEI
9:15-9:45AM | Keynote Address: Trends in Tech, Cyber, Security and their Repercussions in the Middle East
Richard A. Clarke Chairman, MEI Board of Governors
9:45AM-10:55AM | Panel I: The MENA Region in 2030: Trends and Trajectories
This interactive panel will examine the forces over the next 10-15 years that will cause/drive the greatest change in the region. How do we foresee some of these forces influencing each other, accelerating, slowing, and shaping change? What projections can we make of things likely to be significantly different in the region in 2030?
Elhum Haghighat Professor and chair, Department of Political Science, City University of New York
Amal Kandeel Director, Climate Change and Environment Program, MEI
Josh Kerbel Research faculty, National Intelligence University
Paul Salem President, MEI
Steven Kenney (moderator) Founder and principal, Foresight Vector LLC
10:55AM-11:15AM | Coffee Break
11:15AM-11:45AM | Remarks:
His Excellency Dr. Thani Ahmed Al Zeyoudi Minister of Climate Change and Environment, United Arab Emirates
11:45AM-12:55PM | Panel II: Policy Responses to Future Challenges
This discussion will focus on policy areas that will reflect the greatest change in 2030 relative to today. What social-cultural, technological, or other forces will force enable major changes in policies affecting/governing the region? How will policymaking/policymakers address the interrelationships between issue areas?
Ferid Belhaj Vice president, Middle East and North Africa, World Bank
Laila Iskandar Former Minister of Environment, Egypt
Ruba Husari Scholar, MEI
Michael Nagata Former director of Strategic Operational Planning, National Counterterrorism Center
Ambassador (ret.) Gerald Feierstein Senior Vice President, MEI
Patrick Tucker (moderator) Technology editor, Defense One
12:55-1:30 | Lunch Buffet
3.Washington Humanitarian Forum|September 19, 2019|8:30 AM-3:30 PM|Center for Strategic and International Studies| 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
The CSIS Humanitarian Agenda is hosting the first annual Washington Humanitarian Forum on September 19th, 2019. This full-day conference will focus on humanitarian challenges that sit at the intersection of United States national security and foreign policy priorities. This year’s theme is Unlocking Humanitarian Access – Opportunities for U.S. Leadership.
The Washington Humanitarian Forum will include the launch of a report produced by the CSIS Task Force on Humanitarian Access. The Task Force, co-chaired by Senator Todd Young (R-IN) and Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ), looked at ways in which denial, delay, and diversion prevents humanitarian assistance from reaching the most vulnerable populations, and vice versa, in conflict-affected areas. The Task Force report analyzes challenges in priority countries for the United States and includes recommendations for how United States leadership can mitigate the most pressing access challenges.
AGENDA
8:00 a.m. – 8:30 a.m. | Check-in and Coffee Networking
8:30 a.m. – 9:15 a.m. | Opening Plenary
- Video Address: Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Senator Todd Young (R-IN)
- Introductions: J. Stephen Morrison, Senior Vice President and Director, Global Health Policy Center, CSIS
- Opening Keynote: Mark Lowcock, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
- Moderator: Kimberly Flowers, Director, Humanitarian Agenda & Global Food Security Projects, CSIS
9:15 a.m. – 10:15 a.m. | Task Force Report Launch
- Ambassador Ertharin Cousin, former Executive Director, UN World Food Programme
- Patricia McIlreavy, Vice President for Policy and Practice, InterAction
- Dr. Paul B. Spiegel, Director, Center for Humanitarian Health, Johns Hopkins University
- Anne Witkowsky, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Stability and Humanitarian Affairs, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, U.S. Department of Defense
- Moderator: Kimberly Flowers, Director, Humanitarian Agenda and Global Food Security Project, CSIS
10:15 a.m. – 10:30 a.m. | Networking Coffee Break
10:30 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. | Morning Breakout Panels
The Humanitarian Implications of Cyber Conflict
- Colonel Gary Corn, Director and Adjunct Professor, Washington College of Law, American University
- Shanthi Kalathil, Senior Director, International Forum for Democratic Studies, National Endowment for Democracy
- Moderator: James Andrew Lewis, Senior Vice President and Director, Technology Policy Program, CSIS
- Dr. Aisha Jumaan, Founder and President, Yemen Relief and Reconstruction Foundation
- Peter Salisbury, Consulting Senior Analyst on Yemen, International Crisis Group
- Sheba Crocker, Vice President for Humanitarian Policy and Practice, CARE
- Moderator: Jon Alterman, Senior Vice President, Zbiegniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director, Middle East Program, CSIS
Access in the Hot Zone: Navigating the DRC Ebola Outbreak
- Admiral Tim Ziemer, Senior Deputy Assistant Administrator, Bureau for Democracy Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance, USAID
- Ella Watson-Stryker, Humanitarian Representative, Médecins Sans Frontières
- Jeremy Konyndyk, Senior Policy Fellow, Center for Global Development
- Moderator: J. Stephen Morrison, Senior Vice President and Director, Global Health Policy Center, CSIS
12:00 p.m. – 1:00 p.m. | Lunch
1:00 p.m. – 2:30 p.m. | Afternoon Breakout Panels
The Growing Humanitarian Access Challenge in Eastern Ukraine
- Alexander Hug, Former Deputy Chief Monitor, Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)
- Melinda Haring, Editor, UkraineAlert, Atlantic Council
- Margot Ellis, Senior Deputy Assistant Administrator, Europe and Eurasia, USAID
- Moderator: Heather Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe Program, CSIS
Rethinking Nigeria’s Response to the Boko Haram Crisis
- Brandon Kendhammer, Associate Professor of Political Science, Ohio University
- Fati Abubakar, Documentary photographer and Public Health Worker
- Ambassador Alex Laskaris, former Deputy to the Commander for Civil-Military Engagement, U.S. Africa Command
- Dafna Hochman Rand, Vice President for Policy and Research, Mercy Corps
- Moderator: Judd Devermont, Director, Africa Program, CSIS
A New Age of Humanitarian Reporting?
- Heba Aly, Director, The New Humanitarian
- Arwa Damon, Senior International Correspondent, CNN
- Sherine Tadros, Head of New York Office & UN Representative, Amnesty International
- Moderator: Jacob Kurtzer, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda, CSIS
2:30 p.m. – 2:45 p.m. | Networking Coffee Break
2:45 p.m. – 3:30 p.m. | Closing Remarks
- Closing Keynote: Jan Egeland, Secretary General, Norwegian Refugee Council
- Moderator: Kimberly Flowers, Director, Humanitarian Agenda & Global Food Security Project, CSIS
4. Competitive Security Dynamics in Southern Asia: Conflicts, Challenges, and Choices|September 19, 2019|9:00AM-11:30AM| The Stimson Center|1211 Connecticut Ave, NW, 8th Floor Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
The past six months have seen major disruptions in stability across southern Asia. As tensions in Kashmir continue to simmer, a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan is up for debate, and nationalist discourses gain traction in the region, all eyes are on the strategic dynamics in Southern Asia. This year–the 20th anniversary of the Kargil crisis between India and Pakistan–provides a natural point for reflection, particularly in light of the ripple effects of the February 2019 Balakot airstrikes. What lessons can we learn from the history of southern Asian crises and how are emerging regional dynamics likely to shape future scenarios going forward?
Featuring:
Lt. General (ret.) Waheed Arshad, Former Chief of General Staff, Pakistan Army
Suhasini Haidar, Diplomatic Editor, The Hindu Newspaper
Nasim Zehra, author of From Kargil to the Coup: Events that Shook Pakistan
Vice Admiral (ret.) Vijay Shankar, Distinguished Fellow, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies
Rabia Akhtar, Assistant Professor and Director of the Centre for Security, Strategy and Policy Research, University of Lahore
5. What’s Next for Libya|September 19, 2019 9:00AM-10:30AM|Brookings Institution|Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC, 20036|Register Here
The past year has seen no end to the turbulence plaguing Libya since the ouster of Moammar al-Gadhafi in 2011, with armed factions vying for control of the country’s strategic assets and United Nations-facilitated negotiations leading nowhere. While the self-styled Libyan National Army of General Khalifa Haftar continues, unsuccessfully, to try to take over the country militarily, the internationally-recognized government of Prime Minister Fayez Serraj in Tripoli, propped up by militias opposed to Haftar, retains control over major institutions and sources of national wealth. Weapons of increasing sophistication and lethality are flowing to the opposing sides, in violation of U.N. sanctions and pitting foreign powers against each other, with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt (with French support) backing Haftar, and Turkey and Qatar backing Serraj.
Meanwhile, facing a stagnant economy and constant threats to infrastructure, the Libyan people are caught in the crossfire of this protracted jockeying. Unchecked migration and the threat of extremist groups taking hold in the country’s contested spaces likewise make Libya’s internal situation a security concern for Europe and the United States. Solving the civil war in Libya would restore needed stability to a strategically vital part of northern Africa while laying the groundwork for the prosperity of the Libyan people.
On September 19, the Brookings Institution will hold an event on the state of affairs in Libya. Questions from the audience will follow the panelists’ conversation.
Featuring
- Michael E. O’Hanlon, Brookings Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy
- Jeffrey Feltman, Brookings John C. Whitehead Visiting Fellow in International Diplomacy
- Frederic Wehrey, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Fellow, Middle East Program
- Giovanna de Maio, Center on the United States and Europe Visiting Fellow, Foreign Policy
- Karim Mezran, The Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East
6. Red Sea Rivalries: Middle East Competition in the Horn of Africa|September 20, 2019|10:30AM-12:00PM|United States Institute of Peace|2301 Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20037|Register Here
A new geopolitical paradigm is emerging in the Horn of Africa: Middle Eastern states are playing an increasingly assertive role throughout the region. As Sudan and Ethiopia undergo their most significant political transitions since the Cold War—affecting the future of nearly 150 million people—the jostling for dominance among the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, on the one hand, and Turkey and Qatar, on the other, is fueling instability and insecurity in an already fractious region.
As part of the U.S. Institute of Peace’s ongoing “Red Sea Rising” multi-track initiative, please join us for the release of the International Crisis Group’s forthcoming report unpacking the regional goals, motivations, and often conflicting aims of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.
The report, based on conversations with senior officials on both sides of the Red Sea, examines how outside forces are jockeying to build political influence and carve out pivotal positions in the Horn of Africa’s emerging economy. At this historic juncture for the region, Crisis Group researchers will present the report’s main findings, followed by a panel discussion with experts from the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. Join the conversation with #RedSeaRisingUSIP.
Speakers
Amb. Johnnie Carson, opening remarks, Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace
Robert Malley, opening remarks, President and CEO, International Crisis Group
Elizabeth Dickinson, presenter, Senior Analyst for the Arabian Peninsula, International Crisis Group
Dino Mahtani, presenter, Deputy Director, Africa Program, International Crisis Group
Payton Knopf, moderator, Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace
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Bolton and Trump unleashed
John Bolton and Donald Trump were always an odd couple: the one a consistent hawkish interventionist and bureaucratic operator in mustachioed professorial guise, the other an erratic big-talking little-stick narcissistic braggart. They found common cause on withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) maximum pressure against Iran, thus trading the 10-year delay in Tehran’s ability to build a nuclear weapons for less than one year, but as soon as the President started looking for negotiated settlements with Tehran, Pyongyang, and the Taliban, Bolton resorted to undermining Trump’s efforts. Ironically, Bolton was fired only a few days after he won his battle against the Afghanistan agreement.
Zal Khalilzad was trying to do the right thing: exchange the withdrawal of US troops Trump wants before the November 2020 election in exchange for Taliban promises
a) to negotiate a political settlement with the Kabul government and
b) not to harbor international terrorists.
The reported deal involved withdrawal only to the number of Americans in Afghanistan at the end of the Obama Administration, and the Taliban promises would have been hard to enforce. But it was a start.
Bolton didn’t want the withdrawal at all. But that’s not what blew up the agreement. It was Trump: he apparently decided he wanted a meeting with the Taliban at Camp David, with the president himself trying for a better deal in the role of closer. This was a terrible idea, in particular a few days before 9/11. The Taliban however never agreed to come to the US, so Trump cancelled the non-existent meeting, supposedly because of the death of an American soldier. That isn’t credible, since more than a dozen Americans died during Zal’s negotiations without any dramatic American reaction. Negotiating in the absence of a ceasefire is always a dubious proposition.
Poor Zal is left holding the bag. We’ll know when he abandons hope: he’ll resign. In the meanwhile, Afghan President Ghani, who is competing in a presidential election September 27, is breathing a sigh of relief–he wants the US troops to stay–and Bolton has the satisfaction of watching the US re-escalate the air war, even as he looks for a tell-all book deal and a cushy spot in the private sector. Unleashed, he will also no doubt become a cheer leader for military action against Iran and support for Israel’s annexations.
The President is also unleashed. He is desperate for some sort of international triumph before the election only 14 months hence. The Chinese are holding their own in the tariff war, the Middle East “deal of the century” has evaporated, the North Koreans are thumbing their noses, and Iran is demanding sanctions relief in exchange for deigning to talk with Washington. Trump is left with little alternative in Afghanistan but escalation and unilateral withdrawal, unless Zal succeeds in putting Humpty Dumpty back together again.
Everyone wants to know how US foreign policy will change as a result of Bolton’s firing. I focus mainly on the Balkans and the Middle East. On the latter, it is clear enough that Trump will back the Jewish state to the hilt, no matter who the next national security adviser is. He will also likely try to complete the US withdrawal from Syria, over Pentagon objections. He’ll continue to support the war in Yemen, unless the UAE and Saudi Arabia fall out so catastrophically that there is nothing left to support.
The Balkans is a bit harder to predict, as the Administration has been less than clear about its approach. Bolton was open to a land swap between Serbia and Kosovo that would have destabilized the entire region, likely killing two Clinton birds with one stone: rump Kosovo might have become the eastern province of Albania and Bosnia might have descended into chaos as Republika Srpska tried to secede. But there is no guarantee Bolton’s successor won’t take a similar approach. Ethnonationalists of a feather flock together. An American serving a white nationalist president is always going to give Balkan nationalists a hearing.
Here is the podcast I did with Mark Goldberg shortly after writing this piece.
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Trump caves on Iran
President Trump has apparently agreed in principle to a meeting with Iran’s President Rouhani. Best bet is that this might occur at the United Nations in September or October. The big question is what the conditions are: has Trump offered sanctions relief and has Rouhani agreed to talk about the detailed provisions of the nuclear deal, Iran’s missiles, or Iran’s behavior in the region? The answer to the former is clearly yes; the answer to the latter is that there is no evidence Rouhani has agreed to discuss any of these matters. Trump has caved.
It has been clear for some time that Trump was begging for a meeting with the Iranians, who have resisted unless promised sanctions relief. He now says he wants a discussion of missiles as well as extension of the nuclear deal (aka the sunset clauses). He has made it explicitly clear that Iran can hope for economic relief and that he is not looking for regime in Tehran. Both are major concessions. The latter, a no regime change pledge, was a prelude to President Obama’s negotiations with the Iranians and one that will displease many in the Trump Administration, especially National Security Advisor Bolton.
If the sunset clauses of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) were the major issue, it would have been much wiser to stay in the agreement than to renege on it. Missiles were never part of the JCPOA. There was no reason to withdraw from it on that basis. Trump is essentially retreating from the more extreme positions held in the Administration, which regard the JCPOA as fundamentally flawed (and therefore extension would not be desirable) and the Iranian regime as an illegitimate one that should be replaced before any further negotiations.
Trump did not mention Iran’s regional behavior. This could of course have been an unintentional omission. Surely the Israelis, the regional Sunni powers, and America’s Iran hawks will be unhappy about it. On the merits it is the most important issue right now. Iran is actively involved in arming and training militia forces in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. This is not an issue that should be ignored, though once again: the US would have been better off had we raised the issue while still a party to the JCPOA.
Only time will tell whether the meeting with Rouhani will actually come off, but President Trump is clearly ready and willing, despite Iran’s regional behavior and Israeli resistance to the JCPOA. He has decided to cut and run. But he is erratic, vulnerable to pressure, and may change his mind.
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Trump’s loyalty test
It would be difficult to count the number of lies told in these three minutes:
But if you get tired of them, fast forward to 2:45 where the President of the United States says that the 70% (or more) of American Jews who vote for Democrats are “disloyal.” He either means they are disloyal to the United States or to Israel. Not clear which, but either betrays a profound misunderstanding of the majority of American Jews, who support the United States but not Trump and Israel but not Netanyahu.
The President’s misconception is not surprising. Trump knows people in the 30%: Sheldon Adelson, Abe Friedman, and Jared Kushner. They are all strong supporters of Prime Minister Netanyahu and of the Israeli occupation of the West Bank, including the Jewish settlements there. They are opponents of a two-state solution. They want a greater Israel with Arabs, who would constitute the majority if that state included the West Bank, Gaza, and Israel, treated as second-class citizens in an explicitly Jewish state. This is an extremist idea that many critics would like to call apartheid, a formalized system of unequal rights within a single country.
Most American Jews recoil at that idea because they are committed to America’s founding ideals, including equal rights, and wouldn’t want apartheid in the United States, which is the object of their first loyalty. We are not Israelis any more than Trump is German. We have varying degrees of sympathy with Israel and Jews worldwide, but most of us are Americans first, albeit not in Trump’s sense. Jews are not being disloyal either to Israel or to America when they vote for Democrats, which I imagine we will do in an even larger percentage in 2020 because of Trump and his accusation of disloyalty.
Trump won’t care much about that. He isn’t really interested in the relatively small number of American Jews in the electorate. I don’t imagine there is a single state where they could tilt the margin of victory, especially since the largest number lives in New York, which will vote overwhelmingly for any Democrat. What Trump wants is to cement his relationship with Christian evangelicals, who believe the state of Israel marks a transition towards the return of the Messiah and conversion of the Jews to Christianity. This is a profoundly anti-Jewish concept held by a surprising number of Americans, perhaps by the one quarter who regard themselves as evangelicals.
Most American Jews dislike Christian evangelical aspirations for conversion at the rapture. We may also not like everything Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib say and do, but we support two states (Israel and Palestine) and oppose settlements that make that outcome more difficult. We think all members of Congress (and for that matter all US citizens, including Palestinians) should be allowed into Israel and Palestine without preconditions.
Fanning the flames of prejudice and anti-Jewish evangelicalism will not get our votes. We don’t care that Trump’s son-in-law and daughter are Jews, or that Netanyahu likes Trump. We’ll vote for whom we want, regardless of his loyalty test.
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Stevenson’s army, August 17
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes an almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, follow the instructions below:
– I’m really troubled by the efforts by Trump and Netanyahu to make US policy toward Israel a partisan matter. I think any member of Congress should be able to visit any country which receives overt US economic or military aid — and aid should be suspended or cut when they can’t.
– FSOs complain that Trump administration is naming far more political appointees than past administrations.
– Axios tells how USTR determined winners and losers from the China tariffs.
– BTW, some good news: the security clearance backlog has been reduced.
To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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