Tag: Morocco

Survey says

Tuesday Jay Leveton presented the results of the 2014 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller survey at the American Security Project.  It focuses on Arab youth perspectives, concerns and aspirations throughout the region. The survey consisted of 3,500 face-to-face interviews conducted over the past year across sixteen countries in the Middle East. The sample was split equally between males and females ranging from 18 to 24 years old. Leveton highlighted the top ten findings:

  1. Arab youth are embracing modern values. 46% of Arab youth believe that traditional values are outdated and belong in the past. This number has risen from only 17% in 2011, demonstrating a shift away from traditional values. This change is also reflected in the decreasing influence of parents, family, and religion on Arab youth.
  2. They remain confident in their national government’s abilities. Arab youth show approximately 60% confidence in the government’s ability to address living standards, economic stability, war, unemployment and terrorism. There is great surprise in this confidence, specifically in countries that have suffered from economic hardship or political instability following the Arab Spring. Approval of the impact of the Arab Spring has declined from 72% in 2012 to 54% in 2014, most likely due to the continuous civil unrest and political instability in countries such as Egypt and Syria.
  3. They are increasingly concerned about the rising cost of living and unemployment. 63% of Arab youth are concerned about growing living expenses, while 42% expressed significant worry over unemployment. Approximately half are apprehensive about their own national economy. However, 55% of youth in countries outside of the GCC are concerned about unemployment, while only 39% within the GCC. This is due to the GCC’s proven ability to assist in job creation, while countries in North Africa and the Levant struggle with their youth unemployment rates.
  4. Arab youth believe that the biggest obstacle in the Middle East is civil unrest. 55% believe that the recent uprisings and instability are the greatest impediments to the advancement of the region. 38% believe that the lack of democracy is the greatest issue, while some believe it is the threat of terrorism.
  5. They are increasingly looking towards entrepreneurship as a source of opportunity. 67% feel that the younger generation is more likely to start a business than in previous generations. This entrepreneurial spirit hints at the perceived opportunities in starting one’s own business, specifically in response to some governments’ inability to provide jobs for their youth.
  6. The country that the younger Arab generation would most like to live in is the United Arab Emirates. 39% said that the UAE is the ideal country they would move to, while 21% said the United States, and 14% said Saudi Arabia. The UAE is the model country for Arab youth in terms of the right balance of governmental responsibility, national economy, foreign relations, etc. The United States has remained high in favor in Arab youth perspectives.
  7. Arab youth see their country’s biggest allies to be Saudi Arabia and the UAE. 36% believe that Saudi Arabia is their country’s biggest ally and 33% said the UAE. This was followed by Qatar, Kuwait, and lastly the United States, which marks a shift away from Western countries as the largest allies.
  8. They have a new concern for obesity and rising health issues. Over the past year, there has been a sharp increase in the percentage of youth concerned about obesity from 12% in 2013 to 26% in 2014. An increasing number of the younger generation is worried about diabetes, cancer and heart disease. Among all countries, 52% of youth feel as though the healthcare in their country has remained the same over the past year, while 34% believe that it has improved.
  9. They believe that the government should subsidize energy costs and aren’t too concerned about climate change. 74% believe that energy, electricity, and transport fuel should be subsidized by the government. This comes from the rising concern about the cost of living in each respective country. While this is the greatest worry among youth, concern for climate change and the environment is a very low priority at only 6%.
  10. There has been a great increase in daily news consumption, specifically through online media and social networking sites. Television has been the most popular source of news for the sixth year in a row with 75% of Arab youth using it as their most frequent news source. However, a declining number of youth see the television as the most trusted source of news– 39% now view social media as the most reliable source, rising from 22% in 2013.

While the 2014 survey ranges across sixteen countries that vary in political, economic, and social characteristics, there is nonetheless a great sense of continuity in the hopes, concerns, and priorities of Arab youth in the region.

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Responses to Al Qaeda 3.0

The American Security Project Tuesday discussed “Al Qaeda 3.0: Three Responses to the Changing Nature of Al Qaeda” on the current terrorist threats in the Middle East and North Africa and how several countries have responded to these concerns. Speakers Said Temsamani, Zack Gold and Timothy Fairbank detailed the principal terrorist threats in Morocco, Egypt, and Yemen, and whether each country’s approach has been successful in combatting these threats in recent years.

The previous Senior Political Advisor of the US Embassy in Rabat, Said Temsamani, said the primary terrorist threat in Morocco is the rising number of Moroccans participating in the Syrian civil war. Approximately 3,000 have voluntarily left to fight in Syria over the past several years, largely due to the ideological appeal of participating in the war.  It has become logistically easy and inexpensive for these young Moroccan men to get to Syria—a visa is not required and they receive immediate combat training upon arrival.

While many combatants have been drawn to organizations such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham (ISIS), it is now an increasing concern to the government that young Moroccans have established their own group, known as Harakat Sham, to engage in this ideological–and some would even say jihadist–war.

The foremost issue lies in the reentry of these fighters who are now choosing to return to Morocco after participating in the Syrian civil war. In response to this influx of combatants, Morocco has focused on an approach centered on “spiritual diplomacy,” specifically providing training to both men and women to become scholars and imams. This counter Salafist-jihadist strategy centers on a revival of Moroccan Islam and has largely been successful—so much so that other countries throughout the region, such as Libya and Tunisia, have begun to request this teaching for their own religious leaders and scholars.

Zack Gold, researcher and writer on US-Middle East policy, analyzed the major terrorist threats in Egypt after the revolution in January 2011. Terrorist activity over the past several years has risen both in the Sinai and along the Libyan border due to the disappearance of security forces from these areas. As a result of past crackdowns and repression in the Sinai, the tribal Bedouin population responded to this void in authority by destroying police stations and producing weapons intended for Gaza.  The Egyptian government has responded to these threats with brute force and repression. While somewhat effective in deterring the Sinai threats, it is merely a short-term measure.

Timothy Fairbank examined the current terrorist activity in Yemen and the challenges the government faces.  He highlighted the weaknesses of the Yemeni cabinet in combatting the significant threats of Al Qaeda of the Arab Peninsula (AQAP), specifically due to the lack of elected officials with a true mandate.  AQAP has become the number one terrorist challenge in the country over the past several years.  It has continued to gain supporters both from Yemen as well as Saudi Arabia.

While AQAP is always in a state of flux, Fairbank emphasized that the increase in counterterrorism and drone strikes has in fact coincided with an increase in the size and presence of AQAP in Yemen. A state is weakened when the people do not support local government leaders and suffer from violence and poverty. In the case of Yemen, he concluded, “the weaker the state, the greater the chance for AQAP to infiltrate.”

 Morocco is doing better than Egypt and Yemen, where revolution and war have sapped the strength of the state.

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Peace picks May 12 – 16

1. Morocco’s Approach to Countering Violent Extremism

Monday, May 12 | 12:30pm

Webcast only

Webcast Reminder

Morocco’s traditionally strong counterterrorism efforts are now being challenged by the spread of terrorism to even the most stable parts of the region. At a time when al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb is posing a formidable threat to the neighborhood, the crisis in Syria continues to serve as a magnet for aspiring jihadists, including Moroccans. Meanwhile, prisons in the region often facilitate radicalization rather than deter it, raising questions about how best to prevent and counter extremism and terrorism.

To discuss these and other aspects of Morocco’s threat environment, The Washington Institute is pleased to host a Policy Forum with Mohamed Salah Tamek.

Mohamed Salah Tamek is the delegate-general of Morocco’s Penitentiary and Reintegration Administration. Previously, he served as governor of the Oued Eddahab province, chief of staff to the interior minister, ambassador to Norway, and head of the security portion of the U.S.-Morocco Strategic Dialogue.

 

2. Meet the Syria Opposition

Monday, May 12 | 3 – 4pm

New America Foundation, 1899 L Street NW Suite 400

REGISTER TO ATTEND

The Syrian conflict just entered its fourth year and according to some estimates the death toll is approaching 150,000 killed. A revolution that began peacefully has morphed into one of the most violent wars in recent memory, creating not just bloodshed but an unparalleled humanitarian crisis. “Victory” for any party remains elusive, the Geneva talks proved fruitless and the UN’s Syria envoy is preparing to leave the task for someone else. So what possible solutions exist for Syria? After years of fighting, a fractured society, unspeakable brutality and a lack of commitment from the international community, is Syria’s future anything but bleak?

Join us for a conversation with members of the Syrian opposition delegation currently visiting Washington, DC for meetings with senior U.S. officials. They will discuss the opposition’s vision for a new Syria and what solutions, if any, exist for the current impasse. In addition, they will address the growing global concern over the rising power of extremists and what efforts are currently underway to counter these trends. Finally, the delegation will provide the latest updates and developments from the field as well as a blueprint for the future.

PARTICIPANTS
Hadi al-Bahra
Chief Negotiator and Secretary General of Political Committee

Monzer Akbik
Chief of Staff, Office of the President of the Syrian Coalition

Rime Allaf
Advisor to the President of the Syrian Coalition

Moderator:
Adnan Zulfiqar
Fellow, Truman National Security Project

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Passover wandering

Like 70% of American Jews, I spent last night at a Seder, celebrating the story of liberation from pharaoh. Here are some of the thoughts that were on my mind.

Three years ago I wrote with enthusiasm about the Passover of Arab liberation.  Two years ago Syria seemed already in the midst of ten plagues and ruled by a pharaoh who wouldn’t let his people go.  Last year I thought things in the Middle East better than expected.

This year I’ve got to confess things are a mess, not only in the Middle East but also in Ukraine.

The war in Syria rages on.  Israel/Palestine peace negotiations are stalled.  Both sides are pursuing unilateral options.  Egypt is restoring military autocracy.  Libya is chaotic.  Parts of Iraq are worse.  The only whisper of good news is from Morocco, Yemen and Tunisia, where something like more or less democratic transitions are progressing, and Iran, where the Islamic Republic is pressing anxiously for a nuclear deal, albeit one that still seems far off.

In Ukraine, Russia is using surrogates and forces that don’t bother wearing insignia to take over eastern and southern cities where Russian speakers predominate.  It looks as if military invasion won’t be necessary.  Kiev has been reduced to asking for UN peacekeeping troops.  NATO can do nothing.  Strategic patience, and refusal to recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea and any other parts of Ukraine it might absorb, seems the best of a rotten bunch of options.

This is discouraging, but no one ever promised continuous progress.  Even the Israelites wandered in the desert.  Everyone forgets the part about getting stuck in one lousy oasis for 38 of those years.  Freedom is not a one-time thing.  It requires constant effort.  There are setbacks.  And there are breakthroughs.

Americans face their own liberation challenges.  While the past year has seen giant strides in acceptance of gay marriage, there have been setbacks to the right to vote.  Money is now speech and corporations are people, according to the Supreme Court.  I’ll believe that when a corporation gets sent to prison and banks start accepting what I say as a deposit.  The right to bear arms continues to expand, but not my right to be safe from those who do, except by arming myself.  In Kansas City Sunday a white supremacist and anti-Semite allegedly shot and killed three people at Jewish facilities, all Christians.

The plain fact is that liberation, as Moses discovered, is hard.  It requires persistence.  There are no guarantees of success.  The only directions history takes are the ones that people compel it to take.  Some of those people are genuinely good.  Others are evil.  Sometimes they are both, as son Adam’s piece on LBJ this week suggests.  There may be a right side and a wrong side of history, but it seems difficult for many people to tell the difference.

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Peace Picks April 7 – 11

1. Political Parties and Nigeria’s Electoral Process

Monday, April 7 | 10am – 12pm

2nd Floor Conference Room, Center for Strategic and International Studies; 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW

Join us for a discussion of the critical roles and responsibilities of Nigeria’s political leaders, candidates, and party supporters in laying the foundations for peaceful, credible elections in 2015.  We will hear from the leaders of the two main parties about their plans for the primary contests, and their strategies for enforcing good conduct among candidates, promoting issue-based rather than personality-driven campaigning, ensuring a tone of moderation in the debates, and encouraging respect for the election outcome. This conference is part of an ongoing series, supported by the Ford Foundation, bringing Nigerian officials, civil society activists, and opinion leaders to Washington, D.C. to engage with U.S. policymakers and Africa experts on how best to ensure that Nigeria’s 2015 elections are free, fair, and peaceful.

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The difference women make

Tuesday morning the National Democratic Institute and Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Insitution co-hosted a discussion with members of parliament from Jordan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. The panelists were Rabia Najlaoui, the youngest member of the Tunisian National Constituent Assembly; Fatiha Mouknii, Moroccan Member of Parliament representing the Istiqlal party; Moussa Faraj, member of the Libyan General National Congress; and Reem Abu Dalbouh, Member of Jordanian Parliament. Tamara Cofman Wittes, Director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy and a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, moderated the discussion.

Rabia Najlaoui (Tunisia): The Arab Spring made it clear that women are not passive victims. They are protestors, journalists, and activists. Women played a critical role in the revolution. But soon after they were marginalized. April 2011 saw the enforcement of the zipper rule requiring that names on ballots alternate by gender.  94% of electoral lists listed a man first. Read more

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