Tag: Morocco
Peace Picks February 24 – 28
1. Twitter Evolutions: The Changing Role of Social Media in War and Protest
Monday, February 24 | 9am – 1pm
U.S. Institute of Peace; 2301 Constitution Ave NW
In the early days of the Arab Spring, many hailed digital media as revolutionary tools for democracy and peace building. Three years later, as the region still struggles with authoritarian retrenchment and civil war, social media continues to play an important, if far more complex, role in ongoing events. Meanwhile, protest movements in parts of Europe – especially Turkey and Ukraine – are providing intriguing, and complicated, examples of digitally active protest movements and recalcitrant governments.
Join the U.S. Institute of Peace on February 24th for two panel discussions on social media’s role in political protest and civil war across the Middle East and Europe.
The first panel will discuss the recently released Blogs & Bullets report, which examined mainstream media coverage, YouTube videos, and more than 40 million tweets over a two-year period to show the changing use and impact of media in the Syrian crisis. The second panel will explore the relationship between social media and the political crises in Egypt, Turkey, and Ukraine. This event is part of the ongoing Blogs & Bullets project, a partnership between USIP’s PeaceTech Initiative and George Washington University’s Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communication.
Online viewers will be able to engage panelists and each other via a live Twitter discussion (#usipblogs).
Agenda:
9:00am to 9:10am | Introduction
Sheldon Himelfarb
Director of Media, Technology, and Peace building, U.S. Institute of Peace
9:10am to 10:30am | Panel I: Syria’s Socially Mediated Civil War
P.J. Crowley, Moderator
Professor of Practice, School of Media and Public Affairs, George Washington University. Former Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs
Marc Lynch
Director, Institute for Middle East Studies, George Washington University
Sean Aday
Director, Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communication, George Washington University
Deen Freelon
Assistant Professor of Communications Studies, American University
10:30am to 10:45am | Break
10:45am to 12:30pm | Panel II: New Media and Contentious Politics in Egypt, Ukraine and Turkey
P.J. Crowley, Moderator
Professor of Practice, School of Media and Public Affairs, George Washington University. Former Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs
Adel Iskandar
Adjunct Instructor, Communication, Culture & Technology, Georgetown University
Joshua Tucker
Professor of Politics, New York University
Zeynep Tufecki
Assistant Professor, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
2. Corruption and Business in Russia: National Problem, Regional Solutions
Monday, February 24 | 9:15am – 12:00pm
5th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center; 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW
There is a perception that it is not possible to do business in Russia without engaging in corruption. While corruption in Russia is a fact of life, individual businesses are employing a range of strategies to reduce their exposure and give them access to international partners. The Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE) and the Kennan Institute present expert findings on this timely issue.
Jordan Gans-Morse, an assistant professor of political science at Northwestern University, will present his research on how non-oligarchic firms are surviving in an atmosphere of endemic corruption. The firms’ coping mechanisms and the means they use to settle business disputes shed light on the course of Russia’s future economic development. Based on extensive field research, Gans-Morse is at work on a book about law, property rights, and corruption in Russia. CIPE Moscow Program Officer Natalya L. Titova will speak on a CIPE initiative in Russia that is helping regional business to meet international anti-corruption standards in order to join international value chains.
During the discussion, the speakers will be joined on a panel by CIPE partners from St. Petersburg, Chelyabinsk and Kaliningrad where corruption is a significant barrier to attracting investment.
SPEAKERS
Marina Fitsak
Vice President, Kaliningrad Chamber of Commerce and Industry
Jordan Gans-Morse
Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Northwestern University
Ludmila Karelina
Director General, International Institute of Organization Management, St. Petersburg
Oleg Moskovsky
Chelyabinsk business owner, expert on commercial risk and debt management
Natalya L. Titova
Program Officer, Moscow, Center for International Private Enterprise
3. Women in the New Arab Politics: A Conversation with Members of Parliament from Jordan, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia
Tuesday, February 25 | 10am – 11:30am
8th floor, National Democratic Institute; 455 Massachusetts Ave NW
Please join the National Democratic Institute and the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution for a discussion with members of parliament from Jordan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. The MPs will discuss the evolving role of women in politics in the Middle East and North Africa, and the potential means of enhancing the participation and leadership of women on the issues of economic development and inclusive growth in times of political transition.
The discussion will be moderated by Tamara Cofman Wittes, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy and a senior fellow at Brookings. NDI director of women’s political participation Susan Markham will provide opening remarks.
4. US diplomacy with adversaries: Dancing with the devil, or how enemies become friends
Tuesday, February 25 | 12:00pm – 1:30pm
10th floor, Center for American Progress; 1333 H St NW
Please join the Center for American Progress and AEI for a discussion marking the release of “Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes,” a new book by Michael Rubin. In the book, Rubin argues that US diplomacy with countries such as Iran and North Korea and groups such as the Taliban in Afghanistan and Hezbollah has significant risks.
The discussion will feature Charles Kupchan, author of the 2012 book “How Enemies Become Friends: The Sources of Stable Peace.” In his book, Kupchan argues that diplomatic engagement with adversaries is essential for enhancing global stability and order.
The discussion is the continuation of a series of joint conversations between the Center for American Progress and AEI examining major national security issues in the coming years.
SPEAKERS
Panelists:
Charles Kupchan, Council on Foreign Relations
Michael Rubin, AEI
Moderator:
Brian Katulis, Center for American Progress
5. Civil Society in Afghanistan: Spark or Stumbling Block for Stability?
Tuesday, February 25 | 3 – 5pm
5th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center; 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW
With international troops withdrawing from Afghanistan, Afghan efforts to promote security will increasingly be taking center stage. This event examines the extent to which Afghan nongovernment organizations (NGOs) can help achieve stability. Speakers will discuss the appropriate balance between state, market, and civil society in fostering stability in Afghanistan; assess the U.S. military’s civil society outreach and engagement efforts in Afghanistan; present findings on how Afghan NGOs are working to counter violent extremism and build peace; and examine how Afghan civil society is preparing for 2015, and how the United States can help.
There will be a live webcast of this event.
SPEAKERS
Clare Lockhart
Co-founder and director, Institute for State Effectiveness
David Sedney
Former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia
Mehreen Farooq
Senior fellow, World Organization for Resource Development and Education
Waleed Ziad
Director of South and Central Asia Programs, World Organization for Resource Development and Education
6. Surveillance Costs: The NSA’s Impact on the Economy, Information Security, and Internet Freedom
Tuesday, February 25 | 4 – 6:30pm
New America Foundation, 1899 L St NW
There’s a debate raging in DC and around the world about the extensive National Security Agency (NSA) surveillance programs that were first revealed this past summer–not only about whether the surveillance is consistent with constitutional and human rights, but also about the costs and the benefits of such mass surveillance. New America’s National Security Studies Program recently addressed the “benefits” question by releasing an in-depth research report demonstrating that the NSA programs have done little to prevent terrorism.
This event from New America’s Open Technology Institute (OTI) will look at the other side of the coin and examine the costs of the NSA programs. Such costs include not only the direct cost to the American taxpayer, but also the cost to the American Internet industry (by some estimates over $180 billion within the next few years), the cost to America’s foreign relations and its work to promote “Internet Freedom” globally, and finally, the cost to Internet security itself.
Join us for a lively discussion on these and other costs of surveillance, with representatives from the Internet industry and the Internet security community along with security policy experts from the left and right, moderated by a longtime legal advocate in the surveillance and privacy world and with an introduction from the US State Department’s former Director of Policy Planning, New America’s President & CEO Anne-Marie Slaughter.
SPEAKERS
Introduction:
Anne-Marie Slaughter
President & CEO, New America Foundation
Featured Speakers:
Daniel Castro
Senior Analyst, The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF)
Mieke Eoyang
National Security Program Director, Third Way
Richard Fontaine
President, The Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Ross Schulman
Public Policy and Regulatory Counsel,
The Computer and Communications Industry Association (CCIA)
Micah Sherr
Assistant Professor of Computer Science, Georgetown University
Moderator:
Kevin Bankston
Policy Director, New America Foundation, Open Technology Institute
7. Ongoing Political Unrest in Bosnia: Drivers of Change and Future Implications
Sponsored by the George Washington University Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies (IERES) and the Advisory Council for Bosnia and Herzegovina
Tuesday, February 25 | 4 – 5pm
Voesar Conference Room, Suite 412; 1957 E St NW
Recent public protests have once again turned international attention to Bosnia and Herzegovina, the site of the 1992-1995 war that left 2 million people displaced and more than 100,000 killed. Almost twenty years after the war, Bosnians across the country have taken to the streets to demand an end to corruption and the ineffective system of governance that have paralyzed the state and robbed its citizens of economic prosperity and a brighter future. The panel will examine the path that led to this crisis, what lies ahead for the postwar state, including its prospects for EU and NATO membership, and broader implications for the region.
SPEAKERS
Nidžara Ahmetašević, Slobodna Bosna (via Skype)
Janusz Bugajski, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Jasmin Mujanović, Harriman Institute, Columbia University
Moderated by:
Sarah Wagner, George Washington University Deptartment of Anthropology
8. Modern Africa: A Symposium on Opportunities for Women in Energy and Water Access
Wednesday, February 26 | 8:30am – 1:30pm
Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW
To register for this event, please email africa@csis.org
Please join us for a conference on women’s access to water and clean energy in Africa. Practitioners, thought leaders, experts, entrepreneurs, and policy makers will discuss and explore the opportunities in water-energy access in Africa, and give examples of successful policies and entrepreneurial ventures that are helping to increase women’s participation in, and contribution to, the water and energy sectors in Africa. The panel sessions will focus on removing barriers to women’s access to energy and water, and on harnessing opportunities at the water-energy access nexus through innovative social, impact, and for-profit investment models, and diaspora networks and platforms to establish business ventures and relationships that catalyze more investments.
Panel discussions will cover:
Women’s Access to Energy
Women’s Access to Water
Harnessing Opportunities to Increase Access to Energy and Water through Partnerships and Innovative Investment Models
The event will be webcast.
SPEAKERS
Pepukaye Bardouille, International Finance Corporation
Tim Boersma, The Brookings Institution
Jennifer Cooke, Africa Program, CSIS
Agnes Dasewicz, USAID, Power Africa
Alexander Dixon, The Aspen Institute
M. Eric V. Guichard, Homestrings Ltd
Maya Harris, U.S. Department of Energy
Rachel Ishofsky, InnoAfrica
Paula Jackson, American Association of Blacks in Energy
Dr. Lawrence Jones, Center for Sustainable Development in Africa
Richenda Van Leeuwen, U.N. Foundation
Katherine Lucey, Solar Sister
Radha Muthiah, Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves
Dr. Jacques Sebisaho, Amani Global Works
Frank Verrastro, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS
9. Rached Ghannouchi on Tunisia’s Democratic Transition
Wednesday, February 26 | 12pm – 1:30pm
Carnegie Endowment, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW
Amid a series of setbacks for pluralism and citizen rights in the Middle East, Tunisia has again provided a positive example for the region. In a landmark step, the country’s Islamic and secular political forces reached agreement on a constitution that embraces equal rights and provides a foundation for Tunisia’s transition to democracy. But while progress has been made, the country still faces serious economic and political challenges, as well as simmering ideological tensions and the rise of radical Salafism.
Rached Ghannouchi, co-founder and president of Tunisia’s Ennahda Party, will give an address on what lies ahead for his country. Carnegie’s Marwan Muasher will moderate the discussion.
SPEAKERS
Rached Ghannouchi
Rached Ghannouchi co-founded the Ennahda Movement, an Islamist group that is currently Tunisia’s largest political party and the dominant participant in a coalition that has governed the country since the October 2011 elections. After spending more than two decades in exile for his political activism, Ghannouchi returned to Tunisia in January 2011 to participate in the country’s democratic transition. Widely recognized as one of the world’s most influential Islamic thinkers, he was named one of TIME’s one hundred most influential people in the world in 2012.
Marwan Muasher
Marwan Muasher is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He previously served as foreign minister and deputy prime minister of Jordan.
10. Egypt’s Economy: Addressing the Challenges Ahead
Wednesday, February 26 | 12 – 1:30pm
SEIU Conference Center, 1800 Massachusetts Ave NW
Three years after Egypt’s January 25 revolution, triggered in part by a demand for greater economic opportunity, Egypt’s economy remains fragile, with slowing GDP growth, declining foreign investment, and youth unemployment at levels that threaten ongoing social unrest. With presidential elections expected this spring, The Middle East Institute will host a discussion about the economic challenges and opportunities faced by Egypt’s future leadership and what more the international community can do to help encourage growth. The discussion will feature Shantayanan Devarajan, Chief Economist of the Middle East and North Africa Region at the World Bank, Ahmed Ghoneim, professor of economics at Cairo University, Zubair Iqbal, adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute, and Steve Lutes, director of Middle East Affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. MEI vice president for policy and research Paul Salem will moderate the event.
11. Getting Beyond 2014 in Afghanistan
Friday, February 28 | 9am – 12:30pm
U.S. Institute of Peace 2301 Constitution Ave NW
Please join the U.S. Institute of Peace, Voice of America, and Alliance in Support of the Afghan People for this two panel public event that will examine the U.S.-Afghan relationship, both its history and its future potential.
Agenda:
9:00am to 9:15am | Welcome & Introduction
9:15am to 9:35am | Keynote Address
Ambassador James F. Dobbins (TBC)
Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, U.S. Department of State
9:35am to 10:50am | Afghanistan and the United States: The Long View
Clare Lockhart
Director and Founder, Institute for State Effectiveness
David Sedney
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia, U.S. Department of Defense
Alex Thier
Assistant to the Administrator, U.S. Agency for International Development
Dr. Andrew Wilder, Moderator
Vice President, Center for South and Central Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace
10:50am to 11:05am | Coffee Break
11:05am to 12:30pm | The Future of Media in Afghanistan
(This session will be introduced by a short film produced by VOA)
Peter Bergen
Director, National Security Program, New America Foundation
Danish Karokhel
Director, Pajhwok Afghan News
Najib Sharifi
Director, Afghan Journalists Safety Committee/Afghan Voices
David Ensor
Director, Voice of America
12. North Korea after Jang Sung Taek and the Outlook for Inter-Korean Relations
Friday, February 28 | 3:30 – 5pm
6th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center; 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW
The purge and execution of Jang Sung Taek was caused by the combination of a struggle over economic interests and political power as well as shortcomings of the Military-first System. While it is too early to determine what the consequences of Jang’s execution are in terms of the political stability and future policy directions of the Kim Jong Un regime, this panel will explore some possibilities, particularly in terms of inter-Korean relations.
SPEAKERS
Jinwook Choi is a senior fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), which he joined in 1993. He was formerly KINU’s acting President and President of the Korea Association for North Korean Studies (KANKS). Dr. Choi is currently a member of various policy advisory committees of the ROK government: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Unification, Korea Communications Commission, and the National Unification Advisory Group. His research interests include North Korean politics and unification policy. Dr. Choi received his Ph.D. in political science from the University of Cincinnati in 1992.
Hazel Smith is Professor and Director of Korean Studies at the University of Central Lancashire, UK. She was previously a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and Professor of Humanitarianism and Security at Cranfield University, UK, a member of the Research Committee of the UK Economic and Social Research Council and an elected fellow of the Royal Society of Arts. Her core area of research is on the economics, society, politics and international relations of North Korea. She has researched the country for over twenty years and lived and worked in North Korea for nearly two years, on secondment to UNICEF and the World Food Programme.
James F. Person is the Senior Program Associate for the History and Public Policy Program and coordinator of the North Korea International Documentation Project. Person is co-editor of the NKIDP Working Paper Series and the History and Public Policy Program Critical Oral History Conference Series and has worked as a consultant on historical documentaries. He received his Ph.D. in Modern Korean History from The George Washington University
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A decent Syrian election: result, not prelude
Jimmy Carter and Robert Pastor propose an election to resolve Syria’s civil war. They suggest three principles that would have to be accepted as preconditions for negotiating the war’s end:
● Self-determination: The Syrian people should decide on the country’s future government in a free election process under the unrestricted supervision of the international community and responsible nongovernmental organizations, with the results accepted if the elections are judged free and fair;
● Respect: The victors should assure and guarantee respect for all sectarian and minority groups; and
● Peacekeepers: To ensure that the first two goals are achieved, the international community must guarantee a robust peacekeeping force.
And they spell out first steps: Read more
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Peace picks, October 7-11
A wide array of interesting events this week (be aware of possible event cancellations due to the government shutdown):
1. A New Look at American Foreign Policy: The Third in a Series of Discussions
Monday October 7 | 12:00pm – 1:00pm
The Heritage Foundation, Lehrman Auditorium, 214 Massachusetts Avenue NW
For decades, libertarians and conservatives have been at odds over American foreign policy. But perhaps a conversation is possible today between classical liberals and conservatives on the nature of American foreign policy. Some are trying to find a “middle way” that is less doctrinaire. At the same time the “neo” conservative phase of hyper military interventionism is a spent force in conservative circles. Therefore, the time may be ripe for an open and honest conversation among some libertarians and conservatives about the future of American foreign policy. It may be possible a new consensus could be found between Americans who consider themselves classical liberals and traditional conservatives on the purposes of American foreign policy.
Join us as Heritage continues the discussion regarding this question, what the dangers and opportunities are and whether they afford an opportunity to take a “new look” at American foreign policy.
For decades, libertarians and conservatives have been at odds over American foreign policy. But perhaps a conversation is possible today between classical liberals and conservatives on the nature of American foreign policy. Some are trying to find a “middle way” that is less doctrinaire. At the same time the “neo” conservative phase of hyper military interventionism is a spent force in conservative circles. Therefore, the time may be ripe for an open and honest conversation among some libertarians and conservatives about the future of American foreign policy. It may be possible a new consensus could be found between Americans who consider themselves classical liberals and traditional conservatives on the purposes of American foreign policy.
Join us as Heritage continues the discussion regarding this question, what the dangers and opportunities are and whether they afford an opportunity to take a “new look” at American foreign policy.
More About the Speakers
Kim R. Holmes, Ph.D.
Distinguished Fellow, The Heritage Foundation
Randy E. Barnett
Carmack Waterhouse Professor of Legal Theory, Georgetown University Law Center
Marion Smith
Visiting Fellow, B. Kenneth Simon Center for Principles and Politics, The Heritage Foundation
Hosted By
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Solid kernels in a not so good idea
My SAIS colleague Ed Joseph and Aaron David Miller earlier this week put forward a proposal for a Union of Arab Democracies that merits examination despite its deep and fatal flaws. There are nuggets therein worth preserving.
The idea in their words is this:
Egypt and its fractious neighbors desperately need a unifying vision that can inculcate respect for democratic norms across glaring differences. Although Arab nations have no interest in joining the European Union or NATO, the Arab world can draw on the model of Eastern European transition, with fledgling Arab democracies devising their own supra-national organization dedicated to advancing democracy. Like the E.U. in its infancy, this Union of Arab Democracies (UAD) could start with limited objectives and evolve toward ambitious goals, including, ultimately, pan-Arab political union.
Waving their magic wand, Ed and Aaron then tell us all the good things that would happen if such an organization were to come into existence, despite the shambolic history of pan-Arab political union proposals.
If Egypt and the other Arab uprising countries were capable of creating such an organization, they wouldn’t need it. The weakness of the proposal is all too apparent when Ed and Aaron get to proposing that Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority (known to me as Palestine) would be the leading democracies, with transitioning countries (Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen) and supposedly “liberalizing” countries (Morocco, Jordan and possibly Oman) tagging along. What a democratic club! Several are more likely to find themselves joining an Islamic union than a democratic one.
Nevertheless, there is a core idea here that is important: transitions need a destination. When the Berlin wall fell, the former Soviet satellites of eastern Europe and the Baltic “captive nations” quickly set their aim on meeting European Union and NATO standards. This gave direction and impetus to countries that would otherwise have wandered as aimlessly as the North African revolutions are doing today.
The way to answer the question “transition to what?” is not to have nascent Arab democracies try to figure it out for themselves. They cannot reasonably aim for membership in NATO or the EU, but they should be able to aim at two easier targets: the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe or, as my Turkish colleague Aylin Unver Noi suggests, the Council of Europe.
OSCE comprises 57 states and plays an important role in the Balkans and the more Asian parts of Eurasia. Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia are already among its “cooperating partners.” Several OSCE members are no farther along in democratizing than their Middle Eastern partners. With 47 member states, the Council of Europe regards itself as the continent’s leading human rights organization. It has a human rights court with some real enforcement capacity that could provide minorities in the Middle East with real recourse if their mother countries were to join.
The idea of extending OSCE and the Council of Europe to the southern littoral of the Mediterranean may seem far fetched, but efforts to construct more ad hoc arrangements have not worked well. Neither the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership nor the Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative gained much traction before 2011, Aylin says, and their relevance will be further reduced by the Arab uprisings.
Another of the world’s more restrictive clubs, the rich people’s Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) , has opened its doors to newly developed states like Korea and Mexico, much to their benefit and the benefit of the organization. Opening the OSCE and Council of Europe to new Middle Eastern members, who would need to meet clearly defined criteria in order to get in, would be a worthwhile experiment. It would give the Arab uprisings, if they want it, a destination as well as a tough-minded qualification process, which is really what Ed and Aaron were calling for.
So “no” to the Arab Democratic Union. “Yes” to Arab democracy that aims to meet the not too exacting standards of the OSCE and respects human rights as defined by the Council of Europe.
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“Il potere logora chi non ce l’ha”
As I am about to risk denunciation for drawing unreasonable parallels, let me state up front that Turkey is not Egypt, Egypt is not Libya, Libya is not Tunisia, Tunisia is not Syria, Syria is not Yemen, Yemen is not Morocco or Kuwait. If there is one thing we’ve learned from the Arab awakenings, it is that each finds its own course within a particular historical and cultural tradition. Distinct political, economic, social and religious conditions are like the soil and rocks through which a river finds its way to the sea. It is difficult to predict the water’s course as gravity pulls it in the inevitable direction.
That said, it seems to me we are seeing in the Middle East a common factor, perhaps a bit like the granite that forces water to find another difficult-to-predict direction. That common factor is the difficulty all of the “democratically elected” leaders are having in adjusting to politics with an opposition. Tunisia is struggling with a Salafist opposition that is stronger than many expected. Islamist militias in Libya have forced its parliament into a harder line on purging Qaddafi-era officials than its leadership found comfortable. Egypt is facing a summer of discontent as President Morsi runs into criticism and street demonstrations by his erstwhile non-Islamist allies.
Now it is Turkey’s turn, where protest against destruction of a park in Taksim square has turned into a much broader challenge because of overreaction from the security forces and Prime Minister Erdogan’s arrogant response. Now the theme is “everywhere is Taksim, resistance is everywhere.” I hardly need mention that in Syria Asad and his security forces managed by overreaction to turn a few teenage graffiti artists into a civil war.
Despite the differences in context, there is a common theme here: the inability of rulers, even democratically elected ones, to govern in an inclusive way that provides opposition with a legitimate role. The flip side of the coin is the inability of opposition forces to figure out how to influence those who govern them without resorting to violence, disruption and rebellion. There is an exception to the rule, but a limited one. Yemen, of all places, is proceeding with a national dialogue that appears for the moment serious, though it has failed to include the southern secessionists and may eventually fail on that score.
Widening our aperture a bit, I would submit that we are seeing something similar in Iraq, where Prime Minister Maliki has managed to keep a few Sunni elites in the tent but seems to have driven large numbers in Anbar and Ninewa into an increasingly disruptive opposition that extremists are exploiting to challenge the security forces and may lead to further division of the state. In Bahrain, the monarchy and its opposition have driven each other into mutual polarization. Only in Morocco, where the king has tried to get ahead of the reform curve, and in Kuwait, where parliament plays a modestly more serious role than in most other Arab monarchies, have we seen the opposition developing as a possible alternative governing elite: loyal but with its own program and leadership cadres.
So the common problem I see is the failure to develop in many places an opposition that is serious about presenting a governing alternative. In dictatorships of course the regimes don’t want such a thing to happen and do everything they can to prevent it. But even in newish democracies that instinct remains. And opposition behavior all too often confirms that there is no viable alternative, or that there are many, no one of which has enough political omph to merit gaining power in a relatively free and fair election. Knowing this, fragmented oppositions do little to gain credibility as governing forces but focus instead on gaining adherents and influence through street demonstrations.
It will take time to get past this stage of things. Maybe a decade. It is not easy to turn a street movement, even a successful one, into a political force with real governing potential. In Giulio Andreotti’s immortal words, “il potere logora chi non ce l’ha.” Power wears out those who haven’t got it.
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Peace Picks, May 20-24th
A busy week with the Hill active and the Sahel attracting more attention than usual:
1. Jihad and Politics in North Africa, Monday, May 20 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm , New America Foundation
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L St., N.W., Suite 400, Washington, D.C. 20036
SPEAKERS: Eamonn Gearon, Peter Bergen
French intervention in Mali earlier this year quickly dislodged insurgents from their strongholds in the northern part of the country, but even before victory had been secured, Paris began making moves to bring its troops home. Most of the 4,000 French troops sent to Mali remain there today, but they plan to hand over security operations to a UN-mandated African force in the coming weeks. With continued unrest and regular attacks by insurgents, any withdrawal at this stage leaves northern Mali vulnerable to becoming a safe haven again for al-Qaeda and others.
The war in Mali is not merely fallout from the Arab Spring. Rather, it is a complex but not insoluble set of issues, with local roots and regional implications. A successful outcome in Mali is possible, but the solution requires Bamako to be inclusive and the West to be realistic by acknowledging that what is happening in Mali is about more than terrorism. The New America Foundation is pleased to welcome Middle East expert Eamonn Gearon for a discussion about the drivers of conflict in Mali and what the international community should do to manage them.
Register for the event here:
http://www.newamerica.net/events/2013/jihad_and_politics_north_africa
2. The Call for Economic Liberty in the Arab World, Tuesday, May 21 / 9:30am , U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC
2172 House Rayburn Office Building
SPEAKERS: Hernando de Soto, Madeleine K. Albright
Witnesses:
Mr. Hernando de Soto, President
Institute for Liberty and Democracy
The Honorable Madeleine K. Albright, Chairman
Albright Stonebridge Group
For more information, click here:
http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/hearing-call-economic-liberty-arab-world
3. Bahrain: A Conversation About Its Challenges and Opportunities, Tuesday, May 21 / 10:00am – 12:00pm, National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC
B-308
SPEAKERs: Ambassador Ronald E. Neumann, Professor David Des Roches, Ms. Sarah Leah Whitson, Professor Paul Sullivan, Dr. John Duke Anthony
On May 21, 2013, the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations and the U.S.-GCC Corporate Cooperation Committee are hosting a public affairs briefing on “Bahrain: A Conversation About Its Challenges and Opportunities” featuring Ambassador Ronald E. Neumann, President, American Academy of Diplomacy and former U.S. Ambassador to Bahrain, Afghanistan, and Algeria; Professor David Des Roches, Senior Military Fellow, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University; Ms. Sarah Leah Whitson, Executive Director, Middle East and North Africa Division, Human Rights Watch; and Professor Paul Sullivan, Professor of Economics, National Defense University and Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University. Dr. John Duke Anthony, Founding President & CEO, National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, will serve as moderator.
Register for the event here:
4. Conceptualizing A New US Pakistan Relationship by Ambassador Touqir Hussain, Tuesday, May 21 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm, Rumi Forum
Venue: Rumi Forum, 1150 17th St. N.W., Suite 408, Washington, D.C. 20036
SPEAKERS: Touqir Hussain
Ambassador Touqir Hussain is a former senior diplomat from Pakistan, having served as Ambassador to Brazil, Spain and Japan (1998 – 2003). Ambassador Hussain held senior positions in the Pakistani Foreign Office, including that of Additional Foreign Secretary heading the bureaus of the Middle East and of the Americas and Europe.
From 1996 to 1998, Ambassador Hussain was the Diplomatic Adviser to the Prime Minister where he had an opportunity to work with a range of foreign policy issues at the highest policy levels.
Ambassador Touqir Hussain moved to the United States in 2003. Since then he has been pursuing an academic career. He was a Senior Fellow at the United States Institute of Peace( 2004-2005) and Research Fellow at the Center for the Study of Globalization George Washington University ( 2006-2010). Currently he is the Senior Pakistan Visiting Fellow at SAIS Johns Hopkins University and Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University and the Syracuse University ( Washington DC campus).Earlier he had also taught at the University of Virginia Charlottesville.
Ambassador Hussain’s overall specialization is South Asian security issues, the Kashmir dispute, U.S Pakistan relations, civil military relations, democracy in the Islamic world, political Islam, terrorism, and US relations with the Islamic world. Ambassador Hussain has written nearly thirty op-ed pieces for US and Pakistani newspapers on some of these issues.
Ambassador Hussain has been a guest speaker at the University of Virginia, Charlottesville; American University, Washington DC; The George Washington University, Washington DC; Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond; the Defense Institute of Security Assistance Management, Dayton, Ohio; The National Defense University, Washington DC; The College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA; and the World Affairs Council, Peoria, IL.
More information here:
http://www.rumiforum.org/upcoming-events/qconceptualizing-a-new-us-pakistan-relationshipq-ambassador-touqir-hussain.html
5. The Growing Crisis in Africa’s Sahel Region, Tuesday, May 21 / 2:00pm, U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC
2172 House Rayburn Office Building
SPEAKERS: Donald Y. Yamamoto, Nancy E. Lindborg, Rudolph Atallah, Mima S. Nedelcovych
Witnesses:
Panel I
The Honorable Donald Y. Yamamoto, Acting Assistant Secretary of State
Bureau of African Affairs
U.S. Department of State
The Honorable Nancy E. Lindborg
Assistant Administrator
Bureau for Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance
U.S. Agency for International Development
Panel II
Mr. Rudolph Atallah, Senior Fellow
Michael S. Ansari Africa Center
Atlantic Council
Mima S. Nedelcovych, Ph.D., Partner
Schaffer Global Group
More information here:
http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/subcommittee-hearing-growing-crisis-africas-sahel-region
6. Prospect for Afghanistan’s 2014 Elections, Tuesday, May 21 / 2:45pm, U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations
Venue: Dirksen Senate Office Building, Constitution Avenue and 1st Street, NE, Washington, DC
Room 419
SPEAKERS: Mr. David Pearce, Dr. Andrew Wilder, Ms. Sarah Chayes
More information here:
http://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/prospect-for-afghanistans-2014-elections
7. How Arab Public Opinion Is Reshaping the Middle East, Tuesday, May 21 / 3:00pm – 4:30pm, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
Falk Auditorium
SPEAKERS: Martin S. Indyk, Shibley Telhami, Kim Ghattas
The Arab awakening that began in 2011 is transforming the Middle East in ways that continue to surprise seasoned observers. As new political leaders and movements struggle for power and work to shape the region’s future, one thing is clear: public opinion is more consequential now than it has arguably ever been. How Arabs view themselves and the world around them will have enormous consequences for the region and the larger international community in the years ahead. How are changes in Arab public opinion shaping the changes occurring across the region? Have the U.S. and its allies done enough to understand and support the voices of Arabs seeking greater representation and opportunity?
On May 21, the Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World, as part of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, will host the launch of The World Through Arab Eyes: Arab Public Opinion and the Reshaping of the Middle East (Basic Books, 2013), the latest book by Nonresident Senior Fellow Shibley Telhami. Kim Ghattas, BBC’s State Department correspondent, will engage Dr. Telhami in a discussion of the book and the issues it raises. Martin Indyk, vice president and director of Foreign Policy at Brookings, will provide introductory remarks.
Register for the event here:
http://www.brookings.edu/events/2013/05/21-arab-public-opinion?rssid=UpcomingEvents&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BrookingsRSS%2Ftopfeeds%2FUpcomingEvents+%28Brookings+Upcoming+Events%29
7. Seeking Wisdom Beyond Our Comfort Zone: How Assumptions About “The Other” Limit Growth, Tuesday, May 21 / 6:30pm – 8:30pm, Rumi Forum
Venue: Rumi Forum, 1150 17th St. N.W., Suite 408, Washington, D.C. 20036
SPEAKERS: Eileen Gale Kugler
Each day we make judgments in our business and personal lives about the value of others. We don’t make these decisions in a pristine vacuum, but rather based on our own experiences and influences. Our complex individual culture—an interconnected web of factors ranging from our religion, race and ethnicity to where we grew up, our family structure and our gender role—is the prism through which we view the capabilities of others. These assumptions, whether conscious or unconscious, limit our own growth, as well the growth of other people. To break through these biases, we each need to be conscious of them and reflect on the origins of our attitudes about “the other.” When we move beyond our own prism and seek wisdom from everyone we come in contact with, no matter their background or status, we grow —and so do our organizations and society at large.
Eileen Gale Kugler is a global speaker and consultant on the unique benefits that diversity brings to schools, communities and worksites —and strategies to strengthen them. She is author of the award-winning Debunking the Middle Class Myth: Why Diverse Schools are Good for All Kids and executive editor of the new Innovative Voices in Education: Engaging Diverse Communities. Eileen’s articles and commentaries appear in wide-ranging publications, including USA Today and the Washington Post, Educational Leadership, and Education Week. Eileen’s work is informed by her continuing on-the-ground involvement, including an active volunteer life. Her family’s volunteer commitment at a South African school, including creating a 23,000-book library, was featured in The Washington Post and Voice of America TV.
More information here:
http://www.rumiforum.org/upcoming-events/seeking-wisdom-beyond-our-comfort-zone-how-assumptions-about-the-other-limit-growth-eileen-gale-kugler.html
8. Perilous Desert: Security Challenges in the Sahara and Sahel, Wednesday, May 22 / 9:00am – 5:00pm, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
SPEAKERS: Anouar Boukhars, Frederic Wehrey, Marwan Muasher
While the world’s attention was fixed on the momentous events in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya after the outbreak of the Arab Awakening, the desert states to the south were undergoing their own transformations with major global implications. Long overlooked by policymakers and scholars, the broader Sahara region has always possessed an underappreciated geopolitical significance. And changes should not be ignored. To explore regional sources of instability and what can be done to minimize the threat of simmering conflicts, Carnegie will gather top experts from the United States, Europe, and the region at an all-day conference to mark the launch of the new book Perilous Desert: Insecurity in the Sahara. Copies will be available for purchase.
Register for the event here:
http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/05/22/book-launch-perilous-desert-insecurity-in-sahara/g005
9. Syria‘s Humanitarian Crisis: A Briefing by Marianne Gasser, Wednesday, May 22 / 12:00pm – 1:00pm, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
SPEAKERS: Marianne Gasser
Marianne Gasser, outgoing Head of the Delegation for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Syria, will discuss Syria’s humanitarian crisis.
More than two years after the onset of the conflict in Syria, the humanitarian toll continues to grow. With estimates of 4 million Syrians displaced internally, and another 1.2 million seeking refuge in neighboring countries, the impact on civilians continues.
Register for the event here:
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/syria%E2%80%99s-humanitarian-crisis-briefing-marianne-gasser
10. Two States, One Country, Israel-Palestine: A Path Towards a Shared Future, Wednesday, May 22 / 2:00pm – 4:30pm, Universal Peace Federation
Venue: 3600 New York Ave., NE, Washington, DC 20002
The Green Room
SPEAKERS: Kamal Awash, Dr. Andrew Wilson
Our co-moderators will be Kamal Nawash, Esq., President, Free Muslims Coalition, and Dr. Andrew Wilson, Academic Dean and Professor of Biblical Studies at the Unification Theological Seminary.
More than 20 years since the historic handshake between Yasser Arafat and Yitzhak Rabin, that sealed the Oslo accords and outlined the path to a two state solution, Israelis and Palestinians are no closer to reaching a permanent solution to their conflict and many experts now believe that the two state solution is no longer practical nor feasible.
Over the last five years, an increasing number of prominent Israelis and Palestinians have openly called for or began considering the practicality of a shared future where the two state solution is seen as an obstacle to peace rather than a path to peace. The new proposals generally include concepts such as a federation, confederation or a one state solution between Israel and Palestine.
More recently, the idea of a shared future has expanded to include grassroot, leaderless efforts among Palestinians and Israelis who pursue their own initiatives to explore the concept of a shared future. One notable effort occurred in 2012 when a group of Palestinians and Israelis organized a historic conference in the settlement of Ariel to discuss the possibility of living together in a united country.
Moreover, a plethora of Facebook groups, which focus on creating a united country of Israel/Palestine, have spontaneously popped up. The roundtable will explore alternatives to the two state solution with emphasis on a shared future for Israelis and Palestinians.
RSVP for the event at:
wselig@upf.org
11. The Middle East and North Africa FY 2014 Budget: Priorities and Challenges, Wednesday, May 22 / 2:00pm, U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC
2172 House Rayburn Office Building
SPEAKERS: Beth Jones, Alina L. Romanowski
Witnesses:
The Honorable Beth Jones, Acting Assistant Secretary of State
Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs
U.S. Department of State
Ms. Alina L. Romanowski, Acting Assistant Administrator
Bureau for the Middle East
U.S. Agency for International Development
More information on the event here:
http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/subcommittee-hearing-middle-east-and-north-africa-fy-2014-budget-priorities-and-challenges
12. ‘Afghanistan 2014: Transition to What?’, Wednesday, May 22 / 5:00pm – 7:00pm , Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS – Rome Building
1619 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C.
SPEAKERS: Ali A. Jalali
Ali A. Jalali, distinguished professor of the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University and former interior minister of Afghanistan, will discuss this topic. Note: A reception will precede the forum at 5 p.m.
To RSVP, contact
saiscaciforums@jhu.edu.
For more information, please visit:
http://sais-jhu.edu/events/2013-05-22-170000-2013-05-22-190000/afghanistan-2014-transition-what
13. Muslims and International Religious Freedom: An Overview, Wednesday, May 22 / 7:00pm , Al-Hewar Center
Venue: Vienna Community Center, 120 Cherry Street, S.E., Vienna, VA
SPEAKERS: Azizah al-Hibri
A conversation with Dr. Azizah al-Hibri, Esq., Founder and Chair of KARAMAH
For more information, visit:
http://www.alhewar.com/newevents.html
14. A Conversation with His Excellency Mr. Ahmet Uzumcu, Thursday, May 23 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm , Center for Strategic and International Studies
Venue: Center for Strategic and International Studies
1800 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20006
SPEAKERS: Ahmet Uzumcu
The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) entered into force in 1997 and today has 188 parties. This treaty, which bans the development, production, acquisition, stockpiling, transfer or use of chemical weapons, has a robust verification regime including challenge inspections. Work to eliminate existing stockpiles of chemical agents continues among the treaty parties. But none of that applies to non-parties to the treaty. Allegations of the possible use of chemical weapons in Syria, which is not a party to the CWC, points to the need to do more.
Please join CSIS for a discussion with H.E. Mr. Ahmet Uzumcu, Director General of the OPCW, about the challenges to the chemical weapons nonproliferation regime today, including appropriate responses to the allegations regarding the use of chemical weapons in Syria.
Register for the event here:
http://csis.org/event/conversation-his-excellency-mr-ahmet-uzumcu
14. What’s Next for Pakistan’s New Government?, Thursday, May 23 / 12:15pm – 1:45pm, New America Foundation
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L St., N.W., Suite 400, Washington, D.C. 20036
SPEAKERS: Shamila Chaudhary, Andrew Wilder, Malik Siraj Akbar, Dr. Simbal Khan, Peter Bergen
On May 11, Pakistanis turned out to the polls in record numbers to vote in a momentous election: the country’s first transition from one democratically elected government to another. The party of former two-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif quickly surged ahead on Election Day, easily winning a simple majority in parliament. But Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz face a range of thorny problems, from a vicious insurgency to a crippling energy shortage.
Register for the event here:
http://www.newamerica.net/events/2013/pakistan_new_government
15. Iran: The Battle for the Presidency, Thursday, May 23 / 12:30pm – 1:30pm , Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
SPEAKERS: Barbara Slavin, Ali Vaez, Meir Javedanfar
Iran’s Council of Guardians will announce the list of candidates for the next president of Iran on May 22-23. Our panel of experts will discuss the candidates, their platforms, and their likely impact on future domestic and foreign policy.
Register for the event here:
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/iran-the-battle-for-the-presidency
16. Egypt: Political Challenges for the Youth Movement, Friday, May 24 / 12:00pm – 1:00pm , Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
SPEAKERS: Jawad Nabulsi, Marina Ottaway
Egypt’s young generation played an important role in the country’s revolution, and they continue to be a political force. Nabulsi, an activist and organizer in the revolution who was shot multiple times, will discuss the future of the youth movement in Egypt.
Register for the event here:
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/egypt-political-challenges-for-the-youth-movement
17. Summer Films: Fire on the Marmara & Sacred Stones, Friday, May 24 / 6:30pm – 8:30pm , Jerusalem Fund & Palestine Center
Venue: The Jerusalem Fund, 2425 Virginia Ave, NW Washington, DC 20037
Fire on the Marmara: On May 31, 2010 while still in international waters, Israeli commandos killed nine people who were traveling on a humanitarian mission on the Mavi Mamara. Traveling together with them, 700 activists from Caracas to Valencia, Barcelona, Brussels, London, Stockholm, and Istanbul attempted to bring supplies and break the blockade that the Palestinian population of Gaza has been suffering for years. A documentation of the events taking place on board the ship before, during and after the attack, filmmaker and passenger David Segara interviews the journalists and activists who survived, exploring their motivations for participating in the Freedom Flotilla.
Sacred Stones: Natural stone is the most requested Palestinian raw material, considered white oil. The Palestinian stone industry has to serve the construction needs of Israel, including that of illegal settlements on the Palestinian territory. The natural stone’s extraction system causes environmental, social, and health problems within villages, refugee camps and cities. The Israeli occupation responds with persecution of Palestinian complaints, whose voices are unanswered by international organizations and ignored by the Palestinian authorities.
Register for the event here:
http://www.thejerusalemfund.org/ht/d/EventDetails/i/38238
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