Tag: National security
Peace Picks | August 10 – August 14
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Breakthrough in Belarus: A Democratic Opening | August 11, 2020 | 10:00 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
After months of protests, Belarusians cast their votes on August 9 for the presidential election. The five-term president of Belarus, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, faces the most severe threat to his regime since he took power more than a quarter century ago. For months, protests erupted after opposition candidates were either imprisoned or disqualified. Undeterred by mass arrests and fines, opposition forces rallied against Lukashenka’s government and the immediate election results. Government-sponsored exit polls showing that President Lukashenka won 80 percent of the vote face broad claims of election fraud, triggering further protests and a heavy police crackdown.
The situation is further complicated by the arrest of alleged Russian operatives in Minsk, sparking wild speculation of foreign intervention. Will claims of interference by Lukashenka succeed in distracting the public, or will he use them as a pretext for a crackdown? Will the outcome of the election change Belarus’ politics? How will the results affect Belarus’ relations with Europe, Russia, and the United States? Can popular will bring about a genuinely democratic transition in spite of government crackdowns on dissent and free information?
Speakers:
Christian Caryl (Moderator): Editor, Washington Post
Konstantin Eggert: Columnist, Deutsche Welle
Natalia Kaliada: Co-Founding Artistic Director & CEO, Belarus Free Theatre
Hanna Liubakova: Journalist, Outriders
Franak Viacorka: Vice President, Digital Communications Network - Lebanon After the Explosion | August 11, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EST | Carnegie Endowment | Register Here
A massive explosion in Beirut shattered glass miles away, killing more than 100, wounding thousands, and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless. Now Lebanon finds itself in a severe political, economic, and humanitarian crisis. How can the people of Beirut rebuild their lives while still sheltering from a global pandemic? What are the immediate political and economic implications of this pivotal moment in Lebanese history, and what political change is necessary for true recovery to be possible?
Speakers:
Kim Ghattas: Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment
Maha Yahya: Director, Carnegie Middle East Center
Paul Salem: President, Middle East Institute
Ishac Diwan: Chaire d’Excellence, Université Paris Science et Lettres - President Tsai Ing-wen Discusses the Diplomatic, Security, and Economic Challenges Facing Taiwan | August 12, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM EST | Hudson Institute & Center for American Progress | Register Here
Join Hudson Institute and Center for American Progress for an address by Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen followed by a discussion with Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office Representative Bi-khim Hsiao, Hudson Senior Fellow Seth Cropsey, and Center for American Progress Vice President Kelly Magsamen.
In January of this year, President Tsai won reelection to a second term. Since then, Taiwan has controlled the spread of its coronavirus outbreak, assisted other countries in combatting the pandemic, and faced increasing aggression from the Chinese Communist Party.
President Tsai will discuss these developments and the security, diplomatic, and economic challenges that face Taiwan in her second term. The conversation following President Tsai’s remarks will incorporate themes from her speech and address current U.S. policy and assistance toward Taiwan.
Speakers:
President Tsai Ing-wen: President, Republic of China (Taiwan)
Bi-khim Hsiao: Representative, Taipei Economic & Cultural Office in the U.S.
Seth Cropsey: Director, Center for American Seapower, Hudson Institute
Kelly Magsamen: Vice President, National Security & International Policy, Center for American Progress
Neera Tanden: President & CEO, Center for American Progress
John Walters: COO, Hudson Institute - How ISIS Really Ends: The Road to Violent Extremist Disengagement & Reconciliation | August 12, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM EST | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
ISIS remains a threat to regional and global security despite its territorial defeat in March 2019. The enduring defeat of ISIS will require more work to address the aftermath of conflict and to rebuild the region’s social fabric to enable people to move forward sustainably and peacefully. Of immediate concern is what to do with former ISIS combatants and their families, and the massive needs for disengagement, repatriation, and reintegration.
With thousands of former ISIS combatants from over 50 countries detained in prisons across Syria and Iraq and countless women and children in displacement camps—with nearly 70,000 in al Hol alone—countries worldwide face the difficult task of what to do with these individuals and how best to prevent future security challenges.
Meanwhile, the global COVID-19 pandemic is impacting the health and safety of those in the prisons and camps, as well as the ability of foreign governments, humanitarian organizations, and camp and prison administrations to continue operations. ISIS adherents have capitalized on this disruption by staging prison breakouts. This combination of stresses provides for an especially complicated set of tasks for governments, local communities, and the international community.
Speakers:
Nancy Lindborg (Moderator): President & CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
Leanne Erdberg Steadman (Moderator): Director of Countering Violent Extremism, U.S. Institute of Peace
Amb. William “Bill” Roebuck: Deputy Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS; Senior Advisor to the Special Representative for Syria Engagement
Philippa Candler: Acting UNHCR Representative, Iraq
Maj. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich: Director of Operations, U.S. Central Command
Azadeh Moaveni: Project Director, Gender, International Crisis Group
Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr.: Commander, U.S. Central Command - Gen. John E. Hyten on Progress & Challenges Implementing the National Defense Strategy | August 12, 2020 | 12:00 – 12:45 PM EST | Hudson Institute | Register Here
Join Hudson Institute for a discussion with Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General John E. Hyten on the Department of Defense’s progress in implementing the National Defense Strategy and remaining challenges. Hudson Senior Fellow Rebeccah L. Heinrichs will moderate the discussion.
Amid an ongoing pandemic, the United States is faced with a broad ranges of security challenges. Responding to the long-term threat posed by China and Russia continues to be the greatest animating force of U.S. defense policy. However, the U.S. faces other serious threats from terrorist groups and rogue states like North Korea and Iran.
General Hyten will describe how the National Defense Strategy is guiding major power competition and working to mitigate and defeat lesser threats.
How has the strategy affected force size, strategy, and deployments? What role do alliances play in achieving the priorities laid out in the national defense strategy? Are we moving at the right speed to develop and produce at scale the kinds of weapon systems we need?
General Hyten will answer these and other questions as he outlines accomplishments and the remaining work ahead.
Speakers:
Gen. John E. Hyten: Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Rebeccah L. Heinrichs: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute - Drug Trafficking and Use in Libya & North Africa | August 14, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EST | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
The trafficking and consumption of illicit drugs both within and through Libya are often overlooked as factors in the country’s fragile situation. But the dynamics of illicit drug trading and use in Libya are just one manifestation of the rising drug challenge faced by North African states. Production, trafficking, and consumption are increasing and transforming across the region, posing a rising challenge to stability, security, and public health in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya.
Join USIP and the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) for a presentation of recently published research on drug issues in the region. USIP experts will discuss their research on drug trafficking and consumption in Libya, while GI-TOC experts will analyze trends in the Maghreb as a whole. The event will bring together policymakers and practitioners to explore the dynamics of these issue areas and what can be done to deal with the harmful effects while mitigating harm to communities.
Speakers:
Nate Wilson (Moderator): Libya Country Manager, U.S. Institute of Peace
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Stevenson’s army, August 10
– Senators Cruz and Rubio among those newly sanctioned by China.
– SecDef Esper says US troop numbers in Afghanistan will be below 5,000 by November.
– Lawfare writer says use of IEEPA for TikTok stretches law to breaking point.
– Dan Drezner sees world collapsing around Mike Pompeo.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 9
I make a big deal in the spring course about the importance of agency authorities, capabilities, and culture. Previously I’ve noted how many of President Trump’s official documents are little more than press releases, not legally significant actions. That’s abundantly true of the four measures signed Saturday and touted as pandemic relief. Read them for yourself. Only one is called an executive order; the others are memorandums. None adds money to the fight. Instead, the agencies are told to shift money from FEMA, or to use unspent money. Officials are told to “consider” using “existing authorities” to halt evictions and provide help. They could have done that on Friday, too. To get new money, you need a new appropriation under our Constitution; to change an expiring law, you need a new law. I’ve seen good assessments of these new documents by NYT and Vox.
WaPo says Chief of Staff Meadows now spends most staff meetings on political messaging rather than pandemic issues.
FP has an analysis of the new agreement between China and Iran.
Sen. Blumenthal says we need more declassification of intelligence assessments of foreign electoral interference.
SAIS Prof James Mann says Brent Scowcroft didn’t always follow his own model of neutral honest broker.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | July 27 – July 31
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- From Peoples Into Nations: A History of Eastern Europe | July 27, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:30 PM EST | Wilson Center | Register Here
Eastern Europe has produced more history than any region on earth, for bad and for good. But where is it? And how does a critical historian write its history? Nationalists argue that nations are eternal, Connelly argues that they formed recently: in the 1780s, when the Habsburgs attempted to make their subjects German, thereby causing a panic among Hungarians and Czechs that they might disappear from history. The region’s boundaries are the boundaries of a certain painful knowledge: that nations come and go, and urgently require protection.
Speakers:
John Connelly: Sidney Hellman Ehrman Professor of History and Director of Institute for East European, Eurasian, & Slavic Studies at University of California (Berkeley)
Christian F. Ostermann: Director, History & Public Policy Program, Cold War International History Project, North Korea Documentation Project, Nuclear Proliferation International History Project, Wilson Center
Eric Arnesen: Fellow, the George Washington University - Crisis in Northern Mozambique | July 28, 2020 | 10:00 – 10:45 AM EST | Center for Strategic & International Studies | Register Here
The recent escalation of violence in the Cabo Delgado province threatens the overall security of the region and has caused a substantial increase in humanitarian needs. Since 2017, the conflict in northern Mozambique has displaced nearly 250,000 people and killed 1,000 others, with violence escalating rapidly in 2020. The Islamic State has tried to capitalize on the chaos, and the Government of Mozambique has struggled to combat armed actors while also navigating climate shocks and the response to Covid-19.
Please join us for a discussion on the conflict in Mozambique’s northern provinces, the implications for regional security, and steps the international community can take to respond to the humanitarian needs.
Speakers:
Mamadou Sou: Head of Delegation, Southern Africa, International Committee of the Red Cross
Emilia Columbo: Non-Resident Senior Associate, Africa Program, CSIS
Jacob Kurzter: Interim Director & Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda, CSIS - Western Balkans Partnership Summit | July 29, 2020 | 10:15 – 11:30 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The Atlantic Council will host a Summit of leaders from the Western Balkans Six—Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia—as they agree on bold, practical actions to advance regional economic cooperation. These significant steps will help the region emerge from the devastating impact of COVID-19 with greater economic development opportunities.
The expected economic and social impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Balkans demand urgent regional action to avoid sustained economic stagnation and the potential instability that comes with it. This agreement will demonstrate leaders’ commitment to foster economic growth by pursuing the free movement of goods, persons, and services across the region’s borders. The measure will also set in motion a significant plan for attracting foreign investment and accelerating the effective deployment of COVID-19 recovery funds.
Building on its efforts and extensive networks in Southeastern Europe, the Atlantic Council convenes this Western Balkans Partnership Summit to facilitate and promote concrete steps among the leaders toward regional economic integration that can stimulate post-COVID-19 economic recovery, boost the region’s long-term competitiveness, and strengthen its attractiveness for investors. Tangible measures agreed at the Summit—linked to and embedded in existing regional initiatives and dialogues—will send an important political message about the Western Balkans’ Euro-Atlantic future at a time of heightened uncertainty.
Speakers:
Damon M. Wilson (Moderator): Vice President, Atlantic Council
H.E. Stevo Pendarovski: President of the Republic of North Macedonia
H.E. Aleksandar Vučić: President of the Republic of Serbia
H.E. Avdullah Hoti: Prime Minister of the Republic of Kosovo
H.E. Edi Rama: Prime Minister of the Republic of Albania
H.E. Zoran Tegeltija: Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina
H.E. Dragica Sekulić: Minister of Economy of Montenegro - Re-Orienting National Security for the AI Era | July 29, 2020 | 2:30 – 3:30 PM EST | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Artificial intelligence technology has already begun and will continue to transform the economy, education, people’s daily lives, and national security. The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) is an independent federal commission established to examine the state of the AI-national security landscape and determine what policies will maintain U.S. leadership in AI research, improve international cooperation, and advance shared principles for ethical and responsible use of AI. On July 22, NSCAI submitted their second quarter recommendations to Congress and the executive branch.
On July 29, Brookings will host a conversation with NSCAI Chair Dr. Eric Schmidt and Vice Chair Mr. Robert Work on the current state of artificial intelligence in the national security environment, and the commission’s latest recommendations to spur progress on the responsible development and deployment of AI technologies.
Speakers:
John R. Allen (Moderator): President, Brookings Institution
Eric Schmidt: Chair, National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence
Robert O. Work: Vice Chair, National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence - The Future of Trust & Sense-Making | July 30, 2020 | 12:30 PM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Trust – between people, between populations, and between human and machine – is an increasingly challenging convention as we navigate the “post-truth” era and the unprecedentedly complex information age. The concept of trust is arguably humanity’s most empowering trait, enabling cooperation between people on a grand scale and in pursuit of our most complicated endeavors. Our ability to build trust with machines has accelerated our exploration and will push the bounds of human cognition as we learn to augment our thinking with computers. In an unfathomably vast information environment, humans will be repeatedly forced to preserve trust in our observations against a deluge of data. We will have to learn to trust computers to make sense of it all.
How will we negotiate these situations given the challenges posed by misinformation, disinformation, and technically enabled deceptions like deep fake images, video, and audio? Will our predilection for conflict, power, and force projection disrupt this journey? Will we successfully graduate from our present trials by nurturing the concept of trust as we develop new methods to preserve ideals of objectivity, truth, and cooperation?
What might we witness in the coming years with respect to trust in devices, people, and institutions? What is the future of trust, and what are its implications for sense-making? What do all these things imply about our future digital lives?
Speakers:
Dr. David Bray (Moderator): Director, GeoTech Center, Atlantic Council
John Marx: Liaison Officer, Air Force Research Laboratory
Stephen Rodriguez: Non-Resident Senior Fellow & Senior Adviser, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security
Alex Ruiz: Founder, Phaedrus Engineering
Dr. Tara Kirk Sell: Senior Scholar, Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security
Sara-Jayne Terp: Co-Founder, CogSec Collaboration - From Dissent to Democracy: The Promise & Perils of Civil Resistance Traditions | July 31, 2020 | 9:30 – 10:45 AM EST | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Nonviolent protest has proven to be a strong driver for democratization, and recent years have shown a rise in protest movements globally—from Hong Kong to Algeria to Sudan. Yet, popular uprisings don’t always lead to democratic transitions, as seen in the Arab Spring revolutions in Egypt or Yemen. Why do some transitions driven by movements end in democracy while others do not?
In his new book, “From Dissent to Democracy,” Jonathan Pinckney systematically examines transitions initiated by nonviolent resistance campaigns and argues that two key factors explain whether or not democracy will follow such efforts. First, a movement must sustain high levels of social mobilization. Second, it must direct that mobilization away from revolutionary “maximalist” goals and tactics and towards support for new institutions.
Join USIP as we host activists and scholars of nonviolent resistance for a discussion of the book’s broader lessons on how to support democratization efforts around the world. The conversation will explore new insights into the intersection of democratization and nonviolent resistance, as well as actionable recommendations for activists and policymakers working toward democratic transitions.
Speakers:
Maria Stephan (Moderator): Director, Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace
Erica Chenoweth: Berthold Beitz Professor in Human Rights & International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
Zachariah Mampilly: Marxe Chair of International Affairs, City University of New York
Hardy Merriman: President & CEO, International Center on Nonviolent Conflict
Jonathan Pinckney: Program Officer, Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace
Huda Shafig: Program Director, Karama
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Stevenson’s army, July 21
– More federal agents to more cities.
– Bolton unleashed.
– Risks of war with Iran as Netanyahu prepares for a Biden presidency.
Senate hearing for controversial USD[P] nominee.
– Are we doing too many FONOPS?
– How China fudges its statistics.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, July 7
-Columbia prof Robert Jervis has a devastating critique of John Bolton’s new book and of his performance as national security adviser.
– NYT review Bob Gates’ new book favorably. I’ve just finished reading it and support his call for strengthening the non military tools of foreign policy.
-NYT assesses Biden’s performance as VP on foreign policy and personal diplomacy.
– Phil Gordon as a good piece on post-Trump China policy.
– WSJ reminds us of the severe drop in remittances by foreign workers because of the pandemic.
– New Yorker has a thoughtful piece comparing how Germany confronted its Nazi past and how the US might deal with its legacy of racism.
– Politico has story and links to official documents on the administration’s new exclusions of foreign students.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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