Tag: NATO
Kosovo’s army
Hoyt Yee, the Deputy Assistant Secretary who covers the Balkans at the State Department, testified Wednesday at the Congressional Helsinki Commission. In answer to a question, he said the United States strongly supports Kosovo’s goal of joining NATO’s Partnership for Peace program and eventually NATO, a precondition for which is having an army. Washington will also continue to provide assistance to Kosovo to reach the goal of NATO membership. This in my book is exactly the right thing to be saying and doing.
It comes on the heels of Kosovo government approval of transforming its Kosovo Protection Force, a largely unarmed but uniformed corps, into the Kosovo Armed Forces, which will function as an army. Belgrade has asked for a discussion of this issue at the United Nations Security Council. My guess is the powers that be in New York will decide the UNSC has more important things to do right now. Read more
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Happy and dull
I did this hangout with RFE’s Gordana Knezevic and Dzenana Halimovic, moderated by Brian Whitmore, Wednesday and forgot to post it:
I also forgot to post this interview with Elton Trota of the Pristina-based Independent Balkans News Agency:
IBNA: How do you assess the negotiation process between Kosovo-Serbia? What are the negative and positive aspects of the talks between Prime Minister Thaci and his Serbian Counterpart, Ivica Daciq?
Serwer: I think the dialogue process has been successful in limited but important ways. I’d like to see it move faster towards what ultimately has to happen: diplomatic recognition and exchange of ambassadors. But Serbia has now accepted the territorial integrity of Kosovo and the applicability of the Kosovo constitution on that whole territory. It has also exchanged liaison officers, under a thin EU cover. Those are steps in the right direction.
IBNA: Is it possible for reconciliation to happen between Balkan nations in the near future, taking into account that it’s a demand that comes from Brussels for good neighboring relations in the region?
Serwer: Reconciliation is different from good neighborly relations. Reconciliation will take a generation, or two. Good neighborly relations are a question of political will. The governing institutions can make that happen whenever they decide to do it.
IBNA: How is Kosovo moving toward the Euro-Atlantic integration? Is this going to be a long journey for the new state?
Serwer: It will be a long journey to the EU, whose requirements are much more elaborate and demanding than NATO’s. Kosovo has the advantage of being able to build its security forces from the ground up to meet NATO requirements. It has already done that for the Kosovo Security Force that exists. It will need to continue in that direction as that is converted into an armed force. Once it has real armed forces, entry into NATO should be quick if Kosovo meets the requirements. The only political obstacle is the non-recognizers, who will need to be convinced that Kosovo in the Alliance is a much better idea than Kosovo outside the Alliance.
IBNA: How is FYR Macedonia moving toward the Euro-Atlantic integration? Will the disputes of this country with its neighboring country make the journey of this country toward EU and NATO accession any longer?
Serwer: The only real hindrance for Macedonia is the “name” dispute with Greece, which is really about Greek and Macedonian identity, not the name. Macedonia’s armed forces have served with distinction in Afghanistan and its governing structures meet NATO requirements, if I understand correctly. I would like to see Macedonia enter NATO sooner rather than later under the interim agreement as the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. That won’t be possible for the EU, which is still a long way off in any event.
IBNA: Riots and protests took place in Bosnia and Herzegovina against the government and the current political class, is the same is expected to happen in Kosovo and FYR Macedonia?
Serwer: I’m not in the riot/protest prediction business, but neither Kosovo nor Macedonia has suffered the stagnation that Bosnia and Herzegovina has suffered for the past eight years or so. Kosovo’s agreement on the north with Belgrade removes one possible source of instability. In Macedonia, I think NATO membership would contribute a good deal to the sense that the country is moving in the right direction. The normal political process in both Kosovo and Macedonia is in much better shape than it is in Bosnia, which is handicapped with a constitution that enshrines nationalists in power and leaves little room for issue-based politics. But the citizens of Kosovo and Macedonia should watch Bosnia with interest, because it is certainly a model to avoid.
IBNA: What will be the fate of northern Kosovo?
Serwer: Northern Kosovo consists of four Serb-majority municipalities that will now govern themselves in many respects, under the overall constitutional framework of the Republic of Kosovo. Its courts and police will be integrated with the system in the rest of Kosovo, and its municipal authorities will participate in an association of Serb municipalities formed under Pristina’s aegis. With any luck, it will prosper a bit more than in the past and become a happy and dull place.
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The Cory Remsburg metaphor
The President’s State of the Union speech last night broke little new ground on foreign policy. He is pleased to be finishing two wars and will resist getting the United States involved in other open-ended conflicts. He may leave a few troops in Afghanistan to train Afghans and attack terrorists. Al Qaeda central is largely defeated but its franchises are spreading in Yemen, Somalia, Iraq and Mali. He will limit the use of drones, reform surveillance policies and get us off a permanent war footing. He wants to close Guantanamo, as always, and fix immigration, as always.
He will use diplomacy, especially in trying to block Iran verifiably from obtaining a nuclear weapons and in resolving the Israel/Palestine conflict, but also in destroying Syria’s chemical weapons capability. He will support the moderate Syrian opposition. He will veto new Iran sanctions in order to give diplomacy a chance to work, maintain the alliance with Europe, support democracy in Ukraine, development in Africa, and trade and investment across the Pacific. America is exceptional both because of what it does and because of its ideals.
The President didn’t mention Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, Russia or Japan. He skipped North Korea too. His mother must have taught him that when you don’t have anything nice to say you shouldn’t say anything at all. Those countries might merit mention, but all have in one way or another been doing things that we prefer they not do. He mentioned China, but only as an economic rival, not a military one. He skipped the pivot to Asia as well as Latin America. For my Balkans readers: you are not even on his screen. Read more
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The 2013 vintage in the peace vineyard
2013 has been a so-so vintage in the peace vineyard.
The Balkans saw improved relations between Serbia and Kosovo, progress by both towards the European Union and Croatian membership. Albania managed a peaceful alternation in power. But Bosnia and Macedonia remain enmired in long-running constitutional and nominal difficulties, respectively. Slovenia, already a NATO and EU member, ran into financial problems, as did Cyprus. Turkey‘s long-serving and still politically dominant prime minister managed to get himself into trouble over a shopping center and corruption.
The former Soviet space has likewise seen contradictory developments: Moldova‘s courageous push towards the EU, Ukraine‘s ongoing, nonviolent rebellion against tighter ties to Russia, and terrorist challenges to the Sochi Winter Olympics. Read more
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Wait and see
This morning’s New York Times offers polls that suggest the able Ashraf Ghani and opposition leader Abdullah (aka Abdullah Abdullah, but only because Westerners expect two names even if Afghans sometimes have only one) are running strong in the presidential race, which culminates in an April 5 election. One of the polls also suggests that President Karzai’s much-anticipated endorsement of one of the candidates won’t have much impact, if it occurs. While Ghani is a sharp critic of foreign aid to Afghanistan and Abdullah has opposed Karzai since losing to him in 2009, Washington would certainly prefer either of them to several of the more dubious protagonists. They both rank as more sensible than the increasingly irascible Karzai.
By contrast, the Washington Post reports on a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that predicts
Afghanistan would likely descend into chaos quickly if Washington and Kabul don’t sign a security pact that would keep an international military contingent there beyond 2014 — a precondition for the delivery of billions of dollars in aid that the United States and its allies have pledged to spend in Afghanistan over the coming years. Read more
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The quickest way out of the Balkans
It doesn’t rank high in the annals of Balkan history, but the apparent Greek suggestion that Macedonia be renamed “Slavo-Albanian Macedonia” is certainly one of the more offensive and revealing maneuvers of recent times. Greeks know that Macedonians don’t like to be characterized as Slavs, even though their language is a Slavic one. It’s a bit like the term “redskins”: offensive despite the veneer of descriptiveness.
The proposal is also calculated to cause trouble between Macedonians and Albanians, the two most populous ethnic groups in the country. Never mind the other minorities the country counts among its citizens, including Turks, Roma, Serbs and Vlachs. They won’t be pleased either. There is a reason the French call a fruit salad une macédoine.
The Greek suggestion is calculated to irritate Skopje, but it ought also to annoy the international community, which has been hoping for two decades that Macedonia and Greece would come to a compromise solution on the “name” issue. Greece has simply confirmed what should have been obvious: there will be no solution based on the free will of Athens and Skopje. Greek Prime Minister Samaras has wanted the collapse of his northern neighbor. Better to increase the chances of that than solve the problem. Conversely, Macedonian Prime Minister Gruevski sees no possibility of a negotiated solution better than the one he already has: the entire world calls Macedonia Macedonia, except for Greece. He is not blameless in the failure to reach a negotiated solution. Read more
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