Tag: Nonproliferation
Peace Picks | May 31 – June 4, 2021
Peace Picks | May 31- June 4, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- MEI Lebanon Policy Conference – Addressing the Lebanese Social and Humanitarian Crises | June 1, 2021 | 9:45 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Lebanon’s social and humanitarian crises have sharply accelerated over the past two years. From the onset of Covid-19 to the Beirut port explosion and the unfolding financial and socio-economic collapse, Lebanese citizens as well as Syrian and Palestinian refugee communities are witnessing a rapid slide into poverty and despair. Recent developments threaten to fuel civil unrest, xenophobia, and extremism. In the meantime, international partners including donor countries, multilateral institutions, and non-governmental organizations have rallied to help Lebanon avert a total and irreversible humanitarian disaster with wide-ranging repercussions.
How have international partners and the Lebanese diaspora circumvented the absence of a strong and capable central government to deliver much-needed support to citizens and refugees alike? What are some of the different potential scenarios for Lebanon on the social and humanitarian fronts in the months ahead? What must be done in the short and long term to prevent the country from spiraling further downward?
Speakers:
Congressman Darin LaHood (Opening Remarks)
U.S. House of Representatives, Illinois’s 18th District
Paul Salem (Opening Remarks)
President, Middle East Institute
Alex Mahoney
Acting Office Director for the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe, Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance, USAID
Nadine Massoud-Bernheim
Chief Executive Officer, LIFE
Haneen Sayed
Lead Social Protection and Jobs Specialist, MENA Region, World Bank
Mona Yacoubain (Moderator)
Senior Advisor to the Vice President of Middle East and North Africa, United States Institute of Peace
- Equality for Some: Challenges to Women’s Rights in Egypt | June 1, 2021 | 10:30 AM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Despite hard-won gains in rights and freedoms carved out over the past century, Egyptian women are seeing challenges to their rights and duties as citizens. During a period of rapidly evolving social and environmental dynamics, women are struggling to have their own development keep up with the shifting landscape in both personal and professional life.
There also appears to be an odd dichotomy; despite official attempts to promote gender equality, with more women in cabinet and on boards than ever before, long-held patriarchal attitudes mean some positions are still firmly off-limits to women. Women are also facing myriad challenges to their personal lives, with the much-debated draft Personal Status Law threatening to set women’s rights back decades. What are the socioeconomic consequences of these issues?
Speakers:
Hoda El-Sadda
Professor of English and Comparative Literature, Cairo University
Mozn Hassan
Founder and Executive Director, Nazra for Feminist Studies
Mirette F. Mabrouk (Moderator)
Senior Fellow and Director, Egypt Program, MEI
Additional Speaker TBA
- Small Satellite Proliferation, Advanced Technologies, and Their Security Implications | June 1, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | Foreign Policy Research Institute | Register Here
The uncontrolled re-entry of China’s rocket, which launched the core module of China’s space station, has raised concern about the absence of norms governing space. To provide an important perspective, FPRI has assembled a panel of experts to discuss the risks and opportunities of dual-use technologies. How do we ensure a space environment that is safe and sustainable as the number and capabilities of objects in space increase? Can new technologies help mitigate the risks of international conflict over space?
Speakers:
Mariel Borowitz
Associate Professor, Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology
Everett Carl Dolman
Professor of Comparative Military Studies, U.S. Air Force Air Command and Staff College
Glenn Lightsey
Professor at the Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
Lawrence Rubin
Associate Professor at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology and a Templeton Fellow in the National Security Program at FPRI
- Winning the Peace: Armed Groups & Security Sector Challenges | June, 3, 2021 | 8:00 AM EST | Register Here
Armed non-state actors have exploited state fragility with devastating impact and have experienced a remarkable ascension in recent years, powerfully competing with conventional military forces, sometimes delivering governance to local populations, courting state sponsors and working with them across borders. In the wider Middle East, their rise and impact has been pronounced. Developing effective internal and external policy responses to such hybrid security environments, rife with contestations over power, resources, and geopolitical dynamics has been a challenge. Policymakers have grappled with integrating some of the armed groups into formal governing structures, while countering others and with devising policy responses to their rule.
To explore these issues, Crisis Response Council and the Brookings Institution’s Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors are delighted to welcome you to a panel discussion that examines the future of armed groups in the Middle East and policy options for responding to them. It looks at whether armed groups should be integrated into formal governing structures, whether armed movements can govern, and which armed groups should be accepted, and which should be sidelined; it examines how the international community, particularly the U.S. and Europe, should address security crises and looks at potential policies for conflict mitigation and resolution at the local and regional level.
Speakers:
Vanda Felbab-Brown
Brookings Institution
Frederic Wehrey
Carnegie Endowmen
Benedetta Berti
NATO
Yaniv Voller
University of Kent; Stanford University
Ranj Alaaldin
Brookings Institution
- MEI Lebanon Policy Conference – Coordinating International Support for Lebanon: A Conversation with Dr. Najat Rochdi of UNSCHOL | June 3, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute is thrilled to host Dr. Najat Rochdi for a keynote conversation as part of MEI’s inaugural Lebanon policy conference. Dr. Rochdi is the United Nations deputy special coordinator and resident and humanitarian coordinator in Lebanon. She brings over 20 years of experience in development and humanitarian assistance and international coordination in conflict and post-conflict areas.
How is international aid coordination unfolding in Lebanon? Which mechanisms are already in place? What are they building towards? What challenges and obstacles lie ahead? How will the role and involvement of the United Nations in Lebanon develop in the months ahead?
Speakers:
Dr. Najat Rochdi
Deputy Special Coordinator, Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator, United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon (UNSCOL)
Joyce Karam (Moderator)
Senior Washington Correspondent, The National
- Setting the Agenda for a Transatlantic Digital Alliance | June 3, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | German Marshall Fund | Register Here
Tech issues – from digital taxation and the platform economy to artificial intelligence and the protection of critical technology – are central to the transatlantic relationship. European Commission President von der Leyen identified technology as one of four pillars of her “US-EU agenda for global change,” and called for a new “Trade and Technology Council” to strengthen transatlantic collaboration. As U.S. President Biden prepares to visit Brussels, experienced policymakers will explore the opportunities, challenges, and objectives of EU-US engagement on technology, and how these issues will affect the transatlantic relationship into the future.
Speakers:
Tom Wheeler
Former Chairman of the FCC
Luis Viegas Cardoso
Senior Expert of Digital, Technology and Innovation, I.D.E.A. Advisory Service, European Commission
Karen Kornbluh
Senior Fellow and Director, GMF Digital
Mark Scott (Moderator)
Chief Technology Correspondent, Politico
- International Order and its Discontents: Russia, Iran, and the Struggles for Recognition | June 3, 2021 | 12:00 PM EST | Belfer Center | Register Here
Russia’s relationship with Iran illustrates how normative expectations, power aspirations, and shared experiences of denigration can regulate, transform, and structure relations over time. Despite the areas of tension and the mistrust endemic to the relationship, Russia and Iran have exhibited synergies in their approaches to international order as shared experiences of discontent have further galvanized these countries to coalesce around the contestation of the so-called “Western”-led international order.
This seminar will examine the nature of the Russia-Iran relationship, drawing on research of Moscow and Tehran’s domestic foreign policy debates, archival documents, and elite interviews. It offers a framework that accounts for multiple expressions of power and the norms, ideas, values, and solidaristic bonds inherent in the evolution of the Russia-Iran relationship. The broader implications of this case illustrate how power inequalities, and, by extension, the unequal distribution of legitimacy and authority can form a basis of solidarity between states and invite contestation over the rights, rules, and institutions of international society.
Speakers:
Nicole Grajewski
Research Fellow, International Security Program
- Fast Reactors, the Versatile Test Reactor, and Nuclear Safety and Nonproliferation | June 3, 2021 | 4:30 PM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
The discussion will focus on the role of advanced nuclear energy systems for the purpose of reducing carbon from fossil fuels and supporting global clean energy growth, and the essential role of the Versatile Test Reactor in supporting innovation in nuclear energy. It will address issues related to safety and security by design, how the VTR can enhance those features in the next generation of nuclear technologies, and how advanced reactor systems can incorporate enhanced safety and safeguard features.
As the United States accelerates its engagement on advanced nuclear research and development, the US Department of Energy and other federal bodies are adapting policies and procedures to assure that these new technologies are safe and secure and are deployed in a way that supports both climate and national security goals. In this moderated discussion, nuclear energy policy and technology experts will share their insights on pathways to continued innovation, international security, and the continued value of the nuclear power sector.
Speakers:
Ambassador Thomas Graham, Jr.
Chairman of the Board of Directors, Lightbridge Corporation
Ambassador (ret.) Laura Holgate
Vice President, Materials Risk Management, Nuclear Threat Initiative
Jackie Kempfer
Director of Government Affairs, OKLO, Inc; Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council Global Energy Center
Kenneth Luongo
President, Partnership for Global Security
Dr. Kemal Pasamehmetoglu
Executive Director for the Versatile Test Reactor, Idaho National Laboratory
Dr. Jennifer Gordon (Moderator)
Managing Editor and Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council Global Energy Center
- NATO 2030: A Keynote Address by Jens Stoltenberg | June 4, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Brookings Institution | Register Here
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), together with the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and The Brookings Institution, have the pleasure to invite you to a special virtual conversation.
As allied leaders prepare for the NATO Summit in Brussels on June 14, 2021, the transatlantic alliance faces a host of challenges that include Russia’s aggressive actions, the threat of terrorism and cyberattacks, disruptive technologies, the security impact of climate change, and the rise of China. At the same time, the Biden administration offers the opportunity for Europe and North America to work more closely together than they have for many years. The Secretary General will outline his vision in a keynote address followed by a discussion of the NATO 2030 agenda.
Speakers:
John R. Allen
President, The Brookings Institution
Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook
Designated Director and CEO, Germain Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Jens Stolenberg
Secretary General, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
- MEI Lebanon Policy Conference – Envisioning Lebanon’s Path to Sustainable and Equitable Growth: A Conversation with Ferid Belhaj | June 4, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute is thrilled to host Ferid Belhaj for a keynote conversation as part of MEI’s inaugural Lebanon policy conference. Mr. Belhaj is the World Bank Group’s Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa. From 2012 to 2017, he was World Bank Director for the Middle East, in charge of its work programs in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Iran, based in Beirut, Lebanon.
How can Lebanon develop and implement a new economic model to promote sustainable and equitable growth? How will the role and involvement of the World Bank in Lebanon evolve in the months ahead?
Speakers:
Ferid Belhaj
Vice President, Middle East and North Africa Region, The World Bank
Ronnie W. Hammad (Moderator)
Adviser, Office of the Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions, The World Bank
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Peace Picks | May 3 – May 7, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
1. Rebalancing security and governance in the Sahel: Possible avenues for German intervention | May 3, 2021 | 9:30 AM – 10:30 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
Speakers
Andrew Lebovich: Policy Fellow, ECFR
Heike Thiele: Director, Civilian Crisis Prevention and Stabilisation, Federal Foreign Office (TBC)
Denis Tull: Africa and Middle East Fellow, SWP
Theodore Murphy (moderator): Africa Programme Director, ECFR
In the past several years, Germany has repeatedly expressed its strong commitment to stabilisation in the Sahel, and pushed for approaches encouraging political reform and improvements in governance and in internal security provision in the region. However, ongoing insecurity and international critiques of European approaches in the region show the need for continued rebalancing in international approaches. This panel will examine Germany’s approaches to stabilisation in the Sahel and how new approaches and policies could help improve the region’s tumultuous conflicts and political uncertainty.
2. Report launch—The impact of Western sanctions on Russia | May 3, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Speakers
Anders Aslund: Resident Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center
Maria Snegovaya: Nonresident Fellow, Eurasia Center
Sergey Aleksashenko: former deputy chairman, Central Bank of Russia
Elina Ribakova: deputy chief economist, the Institute of International Finance
Ambassador Daniel Fried (moderator): Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow, Atlantic Council
Since 2014, the US and its allies have countered the Kremlin’s growing “hybrid warfare” with sanctions. Moscow’s malign activities have included military aggression in Ukraine, election interference, cyberattacks, assassinations, and disinformation. Western sanctions have imposed serious costs on the Russian economy and President Vladimir Putin’s cronies, though the Kremlin and some others question the efficacy of sanctions on Russia. How successful have the sanctions been in altering Putin’s actions? How can future sanctions become more effective in imposing costs on the Kremlin?
3. New START: The Future of Arms Control Diplomacy and U.S.-Russian Relations | May 3, 2021 | 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Speakers
Rose Goettemoeller: Frank E. and Arthur W. Payne Distinguished Lecturer, Stanford University
Matthew Bunn: Professor, Harvard University
Ambassador Paula Dobriansky: Senior Fellow, Future of Diplomacy Project
Ambassador Doug Lute: Senior Fellow, Future of Diplomacy Project
Nicholas Burns: Professor, Harvard University
The extension of New START – the last remaining treaty limiting U.S. and Russian nuclear forces — sustains verifiable limits on Russian nuclear weapons that can reach the United States for the next five years. Can that time be used to negotiate a follow-on accord that serves both sides interests? With the collapse of the INF Treaty following Russian cheating and U.S. withdrawal, what can be done to address threats to U.S. and Russian security posed by INF-range missiles? What other key issues need to be addressed in strategic stability talks – with Russia, with China, or with others? How can the world community best address the danger of nuclear proliferation – especially when ongoing nuclear modernization in all of the nuclear-armed states is adding to long-standing tensions between nuclear haves and have-nots? Could the United States and Russia revive their past cooperation to control proliferation and prevent nuclear terrorism? Given the challenging relationship between Russia and the United States, Russia’s violations of some arms control agreements, its annexation of Crimea and military and cyber incursions and provocations along its border and beyond – and Russia’s equally long list of complaints about the United States – what might strategic arms diplomacy look like in the future? How can the proposed U.S.-Russia Summit advance arms control, nonproliferation, and a broader working relationship between the two countries?
4. Negotiating New START | May 4, 2021 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Rose Gottemoeller: nonresident senior fellow, Nuclear Policy Program
Peter Baker (moderator): chief White House correspondent, New York Times
In February, the Biden administration extended the New START treaty with Russia for another five years, buying time and space for future arms control with Russia. Secretary of State Blinken promised to use future arms control efforts to address all of Russia’s nuclear weapons and reduce dangers from China’s modern and growing nuclear arsenal. As the United States embarks on this new arms control approach, what can we learn from the negotiations of the last remaining strategic arms control treaty?
Join us for the launch of Rose Gottemoeller’s new book, Negotiating the New START Treaty, and a discussion with Peter Baker on the New START negotiations with Russia and the biggest hurdles, challenges, and insights that can serve as a window to the future of U.S.-Russia arms control.
5. They call it diplomacy: A conversation on the broader Middle East and the critical role of diplomats | May 5, 2021 | 2:00 PM – 3:15 PM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Speakers
Suzanne Maloney (moderator): Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy
Bruce Riedel: Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy
Sir Peter Westmacott: Former British Ambassador to the US
In his new memoir “They Call it Diplomacy,” former British Ambassador to the United States Peter Westmacott looks back on 40-years of service as a diplomat for the United Kingdom. Over the course of his distinguished career, Ambassador Westmacott served in many important roles, including as ambassador to Turkey, ambassador to France, and most recently, as ambassador to the United States. His career spanned the end of the Cold War to the post-9/11 era. And as second secretary in Tehran, Ambassador Westmacott spent four years as a diplomat in Iran in the lead up to the 1979 revolution. As the Biden administration develops its strategy for U.S. foreign policy and charts a way forward in arms control and nuclear policy, it is a critical time to evaluate the importance of diplomats and the role they play in engaging on the ground with communities in key regions across the globe.
6. Report Launch | Russia in the Middle East: National Security Challenges for the United States and Israel in the Biden Era | May 5, 2021 | 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
Speakers
Major General Amos Gilead: Executive Director, Institute for Policy and Strategy
James F. Jeffrey: Chair, Middle East Program
Matthew Rojansky: Director, Kennan Institute
Udi Evental: Senior Researcher, Institute for Policy and Strategy
Ksenia Svetlova: Senior Researcher, Institute for Policy and Strategy
Michael Kimmage: Professor, Catholic University of America
Susan Glasser (mooderator): Founding Editor, Politico Magazine
As U.S.-Russian tensions continue to escalate, Russia’s role in the Middle East is of urgent concern both to Israel and the United States. Potential flashpoints include Syria and Iran, new spheres of Russian engagement from Afghanistan to North Africa, and sensitive cybersecurity issues. Russia is also moving in tandem with China to push back against U.S. dominance, including in the Middle East. Leading experts from Israel and the United States address these challenges in a new report published by the Kennan Institute and the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya. In an upcoming discussion moderated by Susan Glasser, the report’s contributors will address the challenges Russia poses in the region and the decisions that policymakers in the U.S. and Israel face.
7. Transatlantic relations after President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office | May 5, 2021 | 8:00 AM – 8:45 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
Speakers
Jeppe Kofod: Minister for Foreign Affairs, Denmark
Mark Leonard: Director, ECFR
Lykke Friis (moderator): Director, Think Tank Europa
President Joe Biden has come into office with the promise of restoring alliances and having the US reengage in global issues like climate, tax and fighting the covid-19 pandemic. At the top of the new administration’s agenda is also the approach to China. Where does this leave the EU and transatlantic relations? How central is the EU to the US and its interests in Europe?
8. The Post-Cold War Middle East: Iran, Iraq and International Politics in the 1980s | May 6, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
Speakers
Timothy Nunan: Freigeist Fellow, Center for Global History
Katelyn Tietzen: Military Historian, US Army Center for Military History
Samuel J. Hirst (moderator): Associate Director, Bilkent CRS
Barin Kayaoglu: Professor, American University of Iraq
The fourth event of the Global Middle East Seminar Series, organized in partnership with the Center for Russian Studies at Bilkent University, features Timothy Nunan and Katelyn Tietzen. They will be joined by Barin Kayaoğlu, who will act as discussant. The panelists will discuss Iranian and Iraqi foreign policies in the 1980s, and they will look beyond the Iran-Iraq War to questions about the transformation of the international politics of the Middle East in a formative decade. Among other issues, they will examine the Iranian and Iraqi pursuit of influence abroad, including through the activities of transnational actors in Lebanon and Libya. Situating Iranian and Iraqi politics in these terms highlights a moment that transcended Cold War divisions and reshaped regional politics in ways that remain significant today.
9. What’s Next for U.S.-Taiwan Economic Relations? | May 6, 2021 | 7:00 PM ET | Hoover Institute | Register Here
Speakers
Evan A. Feigenbaum: vice president for studies, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Kharis Templeman: Research Fellow, Hoover Institute
Innovation has been a source of comparative advantage for Taiwan—and an important basis for American firms, investors, and government to support Taiwan’s development while expanding mutually beneficial linkages. Yet Taiwan’s innovation advantage is eroding in the face of technological change and strategic risk. What should the next phase of U.S.-Taiwan economic cooperation look like? And how can the new U.S. administration work with Taiwan not just to build on legacy advantages, like in semiconductors, but also to invest in the emerging fields that are rapidly reshaping the future of work, industry, service delivery, and defense?
10. Fragility in Chad and counterterrorism strategies in West Africa | May 7, 2021 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Speakers
Kamissa Camara: Senior Visiting Expert for the Sahel, United States Institute of Peace
John Mukum Mbaku: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development
Joseph Siegle: Director of Research, Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Vanda Felbab-Brown (moderator): Director, Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors
The April 20 death of the President of Chad, Idriss Déby, and the subsequent military coup have profoundly destabilized the country and other parts of West Africa. Likewise, over the past year, the security situation has deteriorated significantly in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and northern Nigeria. The region is facing many severe challenges from climate change and desertification, poverty, and inequality to poor governance, militancy, and terrorism, precipitated by a diverse set of local militants and international terrorist groups. During President Déby’s three decades of authoritarian rule, Chad came to be seen as a crucial lynchpin of counterterrorism in the region and a key ally of the United States and France. Yet President Déby’s death once again highlights the dangers of building counterterrorism strategies around authoritarian leaders and the struggle to find effective policy alternatives.
On May 7, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a panel of experts to examine the latest developments in Chad, as well as the regional implications and deeper policy dilemmas of counterterrorism, stabilization, and good governance.
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Peace Picks | April 5 – 9
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
1. The Cold War in the Middle East or the Middle East in the Cold War? | April 5, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
Speakers
Lorenz Lüthi: Associate Professor, McGill University
Eliza Gheorghe (moderator): Scholar, Romanian Cultural Institute
Guy Laron: Senior Lecturer, Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Alexander Shelby: Professor, Indian River College
In this discussion with Guy Laron, Alexander Shelby and Eliza Gheorghe, Professor Lüthi will discuss the Middle East angle of his book, with a focus on the Arab-Israeli conflict. Long one of the most controversial and significant issues of the 20th century, Professor Lüthi removes the “great power” lense and seeks to provide the perspective of those parties directly involved, Israel and the Arab states.
2. Preventing nuclear proliferation and reassuring America’s allies | April 7, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Speakers
Sec. Chuck Hagel: Former US Secretary of Defense
Christopher Ford: Former Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Non-Proliferation
Elaine Bunn: Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy
Missy Ryan (moderator): Reporter, Washington Post
A task force, co-chaired by Chuck Hagel, Malcolm Rifkind, and Kevin Rudd, with Ivo Daalder, argues that fraying American alliances and a rapidly changing security environment have shaken America’s nuclear security guarantees and threaten the 50-year-old nuclear nonproliferation regime. Please join Sec. Chuck Hagel, former US Secretary of Defense; Dr. Christopher Ford, former assistant secretary of state for international security and non-proliferation; and Ms. Elaine Bunn, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and missile defense policy, for a discussion moderated by Washington Post national security reporter Ms. Missy Ryan on preventing nuclear proliferation, strengthening America’s nuclear security guarantees, and a recent Chicago Council of Global Affairs report on these issues.
3. Mitigating the Impact of Sanctions on Humanitarian Action | April 7, 2021 | 9:30 AM – 10:15 AM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Speakers
Representative Andy Levin: Vice Chair, House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia, and Nonproliferation
Jacob Kurtzer: Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda
J. Stephen Morrison: Senior Vice President and Director, Global Health Policy Center
To discuss the impact of sanctions on humanitarian assistance, the CSIS Humanitarian Agenda welcomes Congressman Andy Levin (D-MI-9), Vice Chair, House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia, and Nonproliferation, and author of the “Enhancing North Korea Humanitarian Assistance Act”. This armchair discussion, hosted by Jacob Kurtzer, Director and Senior Fellow of the Humanitarian Agenda, will explore some of the consequences of sanctions on civilian populations and policy solutions that could mitigate their humanitarian impact.
4. China’s sanctions on Europe | April 8, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 10:30 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Speakers
Reinhard Bütikofer: Member of the European Parliament
Miriam Lexmann: Member of the European Parliament
Dovilé Sakaliene: Member of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania
Thomas Wright (moderator): Director, Center on the United States and Europe
The Chinese government recently imposed sanctions on EU and U.K. parliamentarians, think tanks, academics, and EU committees. Beijing said its sanctions were a response to European sanctions on officials connected to human rights violations in Xinjiang. China’s sanctions have been condemned by EU and U.K. officials as an attack on democracy and are likely to complicate the ratification of the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). On April 8, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings will host parliamentarians targeted and sanctioned by China for a panel discussion on China’s actions, what they mean for future EU and U.K. relations with China, and the role of human rights in foreign policy.
5. “Taking Stock of the Arab Uprisings” | April 8, 2021 | 1:30 PM – 2:45 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Speakers
Michael Hanna: Senior Fellow, The Century Foundation
Tarek Masoud (moderator): Faculty Director, Middle East Institute
As the initial promise of the Arab uprisings has collapsed and curdled, many have revisited nagging questions posed by political dysfunction in the Arab world. Special guest Michael Hanna, Senior Fellow of The Century Foundation joins MEI to discuss the question of whether or not the Arab uprisings were a failure and what this all means for the new Biden Administration.
6. How Can Middle-Power Democracies Renovate Global Democracy Support? | April 8, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Ken Godfrey: Executive Director, the European Partnership for Democracy
Rachel Kleinfield: Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program
Roland Paris: Professor, University of Ottawa
Lisa Peterson: Senior Official for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights
As autocracy engulfs ever more countries, how should the world’s remaining democracies respond? Many are struggling to address internal demands from aggrieved citizens and pandemic pressures, while fending off attempts from authoritarian governments to undermine them from without and within. The conventional menu of democracy support tools seems too meager to meet this geopolitical moment. Germany wants a Marshall Plan for Democracy; Sweden emphasizes a Drive for Democracy. Can middle power democracies enact a strategy commensurate with the challenges at hand?
7. Building Resilience in the Sahel in an Era of Forced Displacement | April 8, 2021 | 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
Speakers
Lauren Herzer Risi (moderator): Project Director, Environmental Change and Security Program
Ngozi Amu: Team Leader, UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel
Elizabeth Ferris: Professor, Georgetown University
Florian Morier: Head of Stabilization, UNDP Cameroon
WIse Nzikie Ngasa: Justice and Resilience Program Director – Mali, Mercy Corps
Kayly Ober: Program Manager, Climate Displacement Program, Refugees International
In the Sahel, a growing crisis driven by ongoing violence and devastation wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and food insecurity, has led to the internal displacement of more than 2 million people—four times the number displaced just 2 years ago. This humanitarian crisis demands an urgent response to ensure adequate provision of shelter, food, and water for those forced from their homes. It also points to a need for comprehensive approaches and sustained investments to address the drivers of forced displacement in the region. Join the Wilson Center and Population Institute for a discussion with experts who are working across disciplines to identify entry points for policies and programs that strengthen the resilience of communities across the region.
8. AI and democracy: Transformative and disruptive potential | April 8, 2021 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET | Chatham House | Register Here
Speakers
Marjorie Buchser: Executive Director, Digital Society Initiative
Cornelia Kutterer: Senior Director, Rule of Law & Responsible Tech
Matthias Spielcamp: Co-Founder and Executive Director, AlgorithmWatch
Philip Howard: Professor, Oxford Internet Institute
Rebecca Finlay: Acting Executive Director, Partnership on AI
This panel discusses the transformative potential of AI and how policymakers, technology companies and civil society can work together to make sure that these advancements are for the betterment of, rather than a detriment to, democratic norms and practices. It also explores some existing and future AI applications, encouraging participants to share their views, hopes and concerns regarding AI and democracy.
9. The Future of U.S. Cultural Diplomacy | April 9, 2021 | 1:00 PM – 2:15 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Speakers
Nancy Szalwinski: Director of the Cultural Division in the Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs
Ambassador Nicholas Burns: Professor, Harvard Kennedy School
Carla Dirlikov Canales (moderator): Co-Creator, Culture Summit
Nancy Szalwinski, Director of Cultural Programs, Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs, U.S. Department of State, and Ambassador Nicholas Burns, Goodman Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations at Harvard Kennedy School will discuss ways in which cultural diplomacy can play a significant role in furthering U.S. foreign policy objectives and the Biden administration’s promise to “restore America’s global standing.” The conversation will focus on current cultural diplomacy priorities for the United States and how changing technologies, geopolitical trends, and recent events have led to new approaches, initiatives, and challenges. Carla Dirlikov Canales will moderate the discussion.
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What use is disarmament of the disarmed?
Pantelis Ikonomou, retired IAEA nuclear inspector, writes:
For decades, international civil society has advocated for a treaty that specifically commits to comprehensive nuclear disarmament and the total abolition of nuclear weapons. The nuclear weapon states, based on non-binding provisions of the international nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) and shortcomings in the global disarmament regime, have kept dissociating themselves from this global aspiration for nuclear disarmament. Even worse, all of them keep developing new and more effective nuclear weapons through expensive projects of “nuclear modernization.”
In this gloomy global climate, a new international treaty – the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) – is soon entering into force. After its endorsement by a special UN conference in July 2017, the Treaty reached last Friday the required minimum of 50 ratifications triggering entry into force in 90 days thereafter, about the time of the presidential inauguration in the US. TPNW bans the development, production, testing, stockpiling, stationing, transferring, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons.
TPNW would be a catalytic nuclear disarmament advancement if it did not have a critical shortcoming. It is binding only on those states that are party to it. Notably, all nuclear weapon states and NATO allies did not participate at the TPNW conference, saying they remain committed to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Of 193 UN member states, only 124 participated, of which 122 voted “in favor,” one “against” and one “abstention”.
Ultimately, the realization of nuclear disarmament will still rest on the goodwill of the nuclear weapon holders. If nuclear weapon holders decide to join the TPNW, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of their nuclear weapons programs. If not, Article VI of the NPT will continue demarcating their responsibility: “… to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament….”
The questions that arise from the current development include:
a) Is the TPNW practically another manifestation of the “disarmament of the disarmed”?
b) What is the practical value of this Treaty?
To which I respond:
- It is undoubtedly a strong political statement, both a protest and an invitation by the international community to the nuclear weapon holders.
- It carries moral weight and opens the way to eliminating double standards linked to geopolitics or moral relativism of the nuclear powers.
- It stigmatizes development and use of nuclear weapons, with potential to influence international public opinion and countries that have not yet signed up to change their stance.
As long as the five nuclear superpowers keep ignoring their nuclear disarmament responsibility under the NPT and evade the TPNW invitation, their behavior will provoke frustration, awkwardness, and anger in the rest of the international community. But that may not continue forever, because use of nuclear weapons can occur at any moment–by accident, mistake, or intentionally.
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The emerging tetrapolar mad world
Pantelis Ikonomou, former nuclear IAEA inspector, writes:
Nuclear weapons are a vital but latent dimension of the growing geopolitical competition. Nuclear capabilities continue to constitute a prime source of power in shaping global power relations amid dangerous non-nuclear conflicts and military confrontations. New power balances are forming.
The main emerging poles are two well-established ones, the United States and Russia, and two emerging ones, China and Europe (led by France as the EU’s last remaining nuclear power post-Brexit). The US and Russia have failed in efforts to engage China in new nuclear and ballistic missile agreements. France is trying to exercise leadership in Europe and the Mediterranean. French President Emmanuel Macron has offered to open a “strategic dialogue” with willing European states prepared to accept the central role of France. He pointed out that “Europe should reinforce its strategic autonomy in the face of growing global threats and stop relying solely on the United States and the Transtlantic Alliance for its defense”
Any excited system will sooner or later reach a state of equilibrium. A tetrapolar structure is emerging around the leading nuclear weapon states: the US, Russia, China and France. These four nuclear powers are flanked by others based on criteria of pragmatism and strategic necessity. The whole process is guided more by bilateral agreements than existing treaties and international institutions. The new tetrapolar world order appears as follows:
- Around the US superpower stand nuclear UK as well as Israel, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, and several European NATO states. The connecting force within this pole is American geopolitical primacy and its ambition to strategically control East and South Asia.
- Around Russia will stand India, several former Soviet states, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya, and sometimes Turkey and Egypt. This pole’s source of cohesion is nuclear deterrence against the Chinese threat, as well as geopolitical influence in the Middle East region.
- Around China are Pakistan, North Korea and the majority of the developing countries in the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). In this nuclear pole the predominant parameter is China’s nuclear deterrence of its US, Russian, and Indian adversaries as well as Chinese economic, military and political assistance.
- France would be flanked by several southern European, Middle East and African states (and occasionally by Israel). The prevailing link in this alliance, besides historical and cultural references, is strategic influence on the wider region and security against a rising adversary, Islamic extremism.
Once a stable equilibrium is achieved, this new tetrapolar nuclear world order might allow the leading nuclear powers to realize the vast global threat they pose to humankind through their bilateral standoffs. Nuclear disarmament as requested by the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT, Art. VI) and emphatically repeated by the international community in the Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty of July 2017 should be a top priority. De-escalation of the current nuclear race and terminating weapons “modernization” ought to be the initial objectives of the world powers aiming eventually to complete and irreversible global nuclear disarmament.
The current nuclear threat to humanity arises from the suicidal so-called MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) nuclear strategy, It ought to be abolished. The threat of a nuclear apocalypse, whether by intent, accident, or miscalculation, will be at its highest level ever so long as MAD prevails in this tetrapolar world.
* This article draws on the author’s book “Global Nuclear Developments – Insights of a former IAEA nuclear inspector,” Springer, May 2020.
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Nuclear irresponsibility
Former IAEA nuclear inspector Pantelis Ikonomou writes, on a date between the 75th anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima and the bombing of Nagasaki (in an excerpt from his Global Nuclear Developments, which Springer published in May 2020):
Nuclear powers regard their weapons as the most effective lever to achieve strategic goals and the status of a world power or a regional leader. The geopolitical backdrop from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki nuclear bombing simply could not be ignored. There are already a number of “nuclear suitors” or would-be proliferators who are ready to play the same card in the on-going geopolitical game. This fact cannot and should not be ignored….
In 50 years of implementation the NPT has had significant successes to show as far as consolidating the non-proliferation regime is concerned. But when it comes to the goal of nuclear disarmament, it has so far been a great failure. The five superpowers, the NPT Nuclear Weapons States, keep evading, in essence ignoring their relevant obligation to nuclear disarmament under Article VI of the NPT. Their behavior creates global frustration, awkwardness and anger, and consequently great distrust of the vast majority of “nuclear have nots” to the few “nuclear haves.” This reality could be a powerful catalyst for negative developments leading to the collapse of the NPT regime.….
Having served for over 32 years the world’s nuclear watchdog IAEA, consciously espousing its declared goals, I would like to address a few rhetorical questions to the two major nuclear powers: the US and Russia, depositaries and steady supporters of the NPT regime and the IAEA:
• Why do they revive, in full consciousness, a nuclear race 30 years after the end of the Cold War?
• Are they not aware of their actions being contrary to their undertaking under Article VI of the NPT? That is “…to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control”.
• Do they not realize that they severely endanger the non-proliferation regime?
• Do they not see the imminent risk of uncontrolled nuclear proliferation by aspiring suitors, “would-be proliferators,” in the Middle East and in north-east Asia?
• Isn’t North Korea enough?
• Why do they risk their displacement from, or initially the decreased relevance of, their global geostrategic primacy?
• Is it possible that they underestimate the growing nuclear threat to mankind?
• Is the behavior of the two UNSC superpowers responsible as patrons of world peace and security? Why do they disrespect the international community’s expectations and disregard its exasperation, anger, and fear?
The risks of the nuclear threat span around the globe and affect every country’s sovereignty and security. The universal nature of the existing nuclear threat is indisputable. It is within the powers and abilities of the leaders of Russia and the US to fulfill their utmost obligation towards their citizens and the peoples of our really small, yet so beautiful and still very young planet Earth. This is to initiate and achieve a political climate of understanding and moderation,a global nuclear “calm down” atmosphere. …
What are these leaders waiting for? What are their intentions? Nuclear crises are becoming more complex and unpredictable, more dynamic and erratic in nature. The tipping point for uncontrollable and irreversible derailment may be nearer than we think. The probability of nuclear weapons be used at any time, intentionally or by accident, is on the rise again, after decades of receding following the end of the Cold War era.
Have we not yet learned the lesson from Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
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