Tag: North Africa
The waiting game should end
Since February 2019, millions of Algerians throughout the country have assembled en masse to demonstrate frustration and dissatisfaction with the political system of former president Abdel-Aziz Bouteflika, who had announced his candidacy for a fifth mandate. The combination of rampant corruption within the ranks of the senior officials alongside Bouteflika’s physical and mental impairment led Algerians to say enough. As the popular movement (Hirak) expanded and demonstrations grew larger and more consistent with each passing Friday, Bouteflika’s long-standing reign over Algeria came to an end in April with news of his resignation. Hirak now is in its 22nd week, maintaining its peaceful nature despite arrests and imprisonment of protesters and opposition figures.
Realizing the importance of Algeria, the Brookings Institution hosted an event on “Algeria’s Uprising: Protesters and the Military” on July 17. While the event was introduced by Vice President and Director Bruce Jones, the panel was composed of Africa Policy Analyst Alexis Arieff, Visiting Fellow Sharan Grewal, former Ambassador to Algeria Robert Ford. Brookings Senior Fellow Tamara Cofman Wittes moderated.
The event revolved around the findings of a survey Grewal conducted of over 9,000 Algerians via Facebook advertisements that targeted Algerians above the age of 18 and living in Algeria. In order to perform a comparative study between civilians and military personnel, the program used targeted individuals who showed an interest in or stated that they are part of the military in any way.
Of the 9,000 Algerians surveyed, over 7,000 were civilian, while just under 2,000 were military. Grewal presented the data through a series of graphs that covered topics such as support for protest goals, the scheduled July 4th Presidential elections, and potential civil-military frictions. Results showed a divide between junior and senior officers in the military, as soldiers and junior officers tended to side with the protest movement and the civilian population at large.
Following the presentation of the findings, Grewal was joined by Arieff, Cofman-Wittes, and Ford to discuss the numbers as well as the political climate in Algeria. What makes the Algerian movement so unique is that it has remained peaceful 5 months on—a feat that contrasts with the country’s brutal “Black Decade” civil war in the 1990s.
Arieff, comparing the two events, remarked that Algerians learned from the experiences of Syria and Libya as well as their own: they are reluctant to undergo a repetition of the civil war that traumatized a generation. Additionally, Arieff noted that the senior leadership in the military has observed that repression can backfire, as in Tunisia.
Although the Hirak has endured, it is not clear what will happen next. According to Grewal, the regime is unable to build a roadmap without the people’s consent since doing so will be rejected during the Friday protests. The next step should be a dialogue between the people and the current leadership; however, as Grewal pointed out, without the removal of the 2Bs (Bensalah and Bedoui)—both represent the old regime—such negotiations and talks will most likely not come about.
Ford noted that the next step should the emergence of a candidate or political group that represents Hirak; however, many have been reluctant to do so for fear of being discredited or targeted. Military pressure has not
As Ford remarked, “if you are in the game you can achieve gradual, but real change.” While the tens of millions of Algerians participating in the democratic protests for over 20 weeks is an achievement, setting the gears in motion for a governmental transition should be the next step.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Peace Picks April 29-May 3
1. Withdrawal or Realignment? The Future of U.S. Middle East Policy After 2020| Monday, April 29, 2019| 11:45-1:30| Hudson Institute|1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Suite 400 Washington, DC 20004| Register Here|
Hudson Institute will host a discussion on the future of U.S. policy in the Middle East. Panelists will include Hudson Senior Fellow Michael Pregent; Daily Beast columnist and author Gordon Chang; the Washington Institute’s Anna Borshchevskaya; and Hudson Fellow Blaise Misztal. Al Arabiya’s Nadia Bilbassy-Charters will moderate the discussion.
Iran, Russia, China, and others are closely monitoring U.S. policy in the Middle East ahead of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. As 2020 candidates’ foreign policy platforms come into focus, this election outcome could have significant ramifications across established policies impacting regional fault lines, such as the polarizing Iran Deal. Additionally, recent efforts by the Trump administration to decrease the U.S. presence in Syria and Iraq have raised questions among allies about America’s long-term ambitions for the Middle East, while adversaries eye the moves as an opportunity to fill potential power vacuums left in the region.
Speakers
Nadia Bilbassy-Charters Moderator, Bureau Chief, Washington D.C., Al Arabiya
Gordon G. Chang, Author, Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes on the World; and a columnist at The Daily Beast
Blaise Misztal, Fellow, Hudson Institute
Mike Pregent, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Anna Borshchevskaya, Senior Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
2. Trump’s Iran escalation| Monday, April 29, 2019| 12:00-1:15| Carnegie Endowment for International Peace|1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036-2103| Register Here|
One year after exiting the Iran nuclear deal, the Trump administration officially designated the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization and is seeking to strangle Iranian oil exports. What is the likely outcome of the Trump administration’s escalating pressure campaign against Iran? How will Tehran react, and what lessons can be drawn from the last four decades of U.S.-Iran history?
SPEAKERS
GENERAL DAVID PETRAEUS, former director of the CIA and is currently the chairman of the KKR Global Institute.
WILLIAM J. BURNS, president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of The Back Channel: A Memoir of American Diplomacy and the Case for Its Renewal.
SUZANNE MALONEY, senior fellow at the Brookings Center for Middle East Policy and Energy Security and Climate Initiative.
MODERATOR, KARIM SADJADPOUR, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
3. After the caliphate: A global approach to defeating ISIS| Tuesday, April 30, 2019| 2:00-3:30| Brooking Institute|1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Washington, DC 20036| Register Here|
The Islamic State took the world by surprise in 2014 when it conquered much of Iraq and Syria and declared a caliphate there. Today, the so-called caliphate is no more. Nevertheless, the Islamic State has branches and affiliates in many countries, a large underground presence in Iraq and Syria, and numerous sympathizers around the world. The future of the group, and of the broader movement it claims to champion, are uncertain, and U.S. policy must ensure that it continues to retreat.
On April 30, the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will host a discussion on this topic. Nathan Sales, ambassador-at-large and coordinator for counterterrorism at the U.S. Department of State, will offer a keynote address after which Brookings Senior Fellow Daniel Byman will moderate a discussion with Ambassador Sales. Following the conversation, the speakers will take questions from the audience.
AGENDA
Introduction
Bruce Jones, Vice President and Director – Foreign Policy Senior Fellow
KEYNOTE
Nathan A. Sales, Ambassador-at-Large and Coordinator for Counterterrorism – U.S. Department of State
MODERATOR
Daniel L. Byman, Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
DISCUSSANT
Nathan A. Sales, Ambassador-at-Large and Coordinator for Counterterrorism – U.S. Department of State
4. Pursuing Effective and Conflict-Aware Stabilization | Tuesday, April 30, 2019| 3:30-5:00| Center for Strategic and International Studies|1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036| Register Here|
Please join the CSIS International Security Program and Project on Prosperity and Development for a discussion on pursuing effective and conflict-aware stabilization in light of the new Stabilization Assistance Review framework, released by the U.S. administration in June 2018.
Agenda
3:30 PM – 4:00 PM: Keynote
Dr. Denise Natali, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, U.S. Department of State
Moderator: Erol Yayboke, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Project on Prosperity and Development, Project on U.S. Leadership in Development, Center for Strategic and International Studies
4:00 PM – 5:00 PM: Panel Discussion
Ambassador Barbara Bodine, Director and Distinguished Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy, Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Georgetown University
Frances Brown, Fellow, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Robert Jenkins, Deputy Assistant Administrator, Bureau for Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance, U.S. Agency for International Development
Moderator: Melissa Dalton, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, International Security Program, and Director, Cooperative Defense Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies
5. The Christian right in the Trump and post-Trump eras| Wednesday, May 1, 2019| 10:30-12:00| Hudson Institute|1789 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036| Register Here|
Donald Trump was not the first choice of many conservative Christian voters for the 2016 Republican nomination. However, they strongly backed Trump in the 2016 presidential election, and they remain among Trump’s most ardent supporters. Are conservative Christians, in backing Trump, wagering that his policies are worth the baggage? Or have their priorities fundamentally changed?
More broadly, the percentage of Republicans who attend church regularly and who identify as Christian traditionalists is dropping, and the issues that animate Trump’s GOP appear different than those of the 1990s and 2000s. At a time of growing secularization, rising religious pluralism, and identity-based political polarization, has the role of Christianity in the Republican Party fundamentally changed?
Agenda
10:15 AM
Registration
10:30 AM
Opening remarks:
Daniel A. Cox, AEI
10:45 AM
Panel Discussion
Panelists
David Barker, Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies; American University
Emily Ekins, Cato Institute
Emma Green, The Atlantic
Joanna Piacenza, Morning Consult
Moderator:
Daniel A. Cox, AEI
11:45 AM
Q&A
12:00 PM
Adjournment
6. Instability and Opportunity in North Africa| Wednesday, May 1, 2019| 2:00-3:30| United States Institute of Peace|2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC 20037| Register Here|
Since 2011, popular protests have forced four of the five governments in North Africa out of power. As these long-standing regimes fall, the resulting political vacuums are creating security challenges that could undermine internal efforts to promote reform. Weak or non-existent government institutions are being exploited by terrorists, human traffickers, and criminals—threatening the stability of immediate neighbors while having a direct impact on Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and U.S. national security interests. Yet, all this upheaval may also present an opportunity to advance deep, regional security cooperation that has been historically unattainable.
Across North Africa, instability is at its highest level since 2011. In Algeria, President Bouteflika’s resignation was a necessary step to democratization, but it remains to be seen if the political structure can survive protesters’ demands for reform and ensure a peaceful transition of power. In Libya, the hope for a compromise to end the stalemate between the internationally recognized government in Tripoli and armed opposition forces seems to be lost. In Egypt, President el-Sisi’s supporters have proposed constitutional changes that will concentrate executive power, alarming human rights and democracy advocates around the world. And amid all this turmoil, Tunisia is trying to consolidate its own democracy and reform its security institutions following decades of autocratic rule.
Speakers
Abdelkrim Zbidi, Minister of Defense, Republic of Tunisia
Thomas Hill, Senior Program Officer, North Africa, U.S. Institute of Peace
Michael Yaffe, Vice President, Middle East and Africa, U.S. Institute of Peace
7. A new Palestinian Government: Is reconciliation possible| Friday, May 3, 2019| 12:30-2:00| Middle East Institute|1319 18th St NW District of Columbia, Washington 20036| Register Here|
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a panel discussion to examine the implications of the Palestinian Authority’s recent power shift. On April 14, Mohammed Shtayyeh took office as Prime Minister, a position held by Rami Hamdallah since 2014. Shtayyeh’s appointment comes during a turbulent time in Palestine, amid protests over a new social security law and escalating confrontation with Israeli occupying forces. Unlike his politically-independent predecessor, Shtayyeh is affiliated with Fatah, President Mahmoud Abbas’s party, and Hamas has announced that it will not recognize his authority, saying he was appointed without national consensus.
How might this change in leadership affect Palestine’s political environment? Will Shtayyeh further sideline Hamas in negotiations with the Israeli government? What prospects are there to promote human rights and the rule of law amid heightening tensions between Palestine and Israel?
Speakers
Tamara Kharroub, Assistant executive director and senior Middle East fellow, Arab Center DC
Grace Wermenbol, Non-resident scholar, MEI
Ambassador Gerald Feierstein, moderator, Senior vice president, MEI
RSS - Posts
